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2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)最新文献

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Effective Bandwidth Estimation in Highly Reliable Regenerative Networks 高可靠再生网络中的有效带宽估计
Ksenia A. Kalinina, E. Morozov, V. Rykov
In this paper, we study the accuracy of different estimators of the effective bandwidth (EB), i.e. a required server capacity C to guarantee a given QoS requirement. We assume that the input sequence is regenerative and study the accuracy of the estimator which is based on the actual regeneration cycles of the basic process describing dynamics of the server. Then, by simulation, we compare this estimator with alternative estimators. In particular, we compare the property of the regeneration-based estimation and the estimation obtained by the so-called Batch Means method. It is shown that the regeneration-based estimator of C in all cases overestimates predefined QoS requirement. Then we discuss how this property can be applied to calculate the required EB for the components of highly reliable telecommunication systems.
在本文中,我们研究了有效带宽(EB)的不同估计的准确性,即保证给定QoS要求所需的服务器容量C。我们假设输入序列是可再生的,并根据描述服务器动态的基本过程的实际再生周期来研究估计器的准确性。然后,通过仿真,将该估计量与备选估计量进行比较。特别地,我们比较了基于再生的估计和所谓的Batch Means方法得到的估计的性质。结果表明,在所有情况下,基于再生的C估计器都高估了预定义的QoS需求。然后,我们讨论了如何应用这一特性来计算高可靠电信系统组件所需的EB。
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引用次数: 0
Framework for Threat Based Failure Rates in Transmission System Operation 输电系统运行中基于威胁的故障率框架
S. Perkin, Gudjon Bjornsson, Iris Baldursdottir, M. Pálsson, Ragnar P. Kristjansson, H. Stefánsson, Pall Jensson, E. Karangelos, L. Wehenkel
Reliability of electrical transmission systems is presently managed by applying the deterministic N-1 criterion, or some variant thereof. This means that transmission systems are designed with at least one level of redundancy, regardless of the cost of doing so, or the severity of the risks they mitigate. In an operational context, the N-1 criterion provides a reliability target but it fails to accurately capture the dynamic nature of shortterm threats to transmission systems. Ongoing research aims to overcome this shortcoming by proposing new probabilistic reliability criteria. Such new criteria are anticipated to rely heavily on component failure rate calculations. This paper provides a threat modelling framework, using the Icelandic transmission system as an example, highlighting the need for improved data collection and failure rate modelling. The feasibility of using threat credibility indicators to achieve spatio-temporal failure rates, given minimal data, is explored in a case study of the Icelandic transmission system. The paper closes with a discussion on the assumptions and simplifications that are implicitly made in the formulation, and the additional work required for such an approach to be included in existing practices. Specifically, this paper is concerned only with short term and real-time management of electrical transmission systems.
目前,输电系统的可靠性是通过采用确定性 N-1 标准或其变体来管理的。这意味着输电系统在设计时至少要有一级冗余,无论这样做的成本有多高,也无论这些冗余所能减轻的风险有多严重。在运行方面,N-1 标准提供了一个可靠性目标,但它无法准确捕捉输电系统所面临的短期威胁的动态性质。正在进行的研究旨在通过提出新的概率可靠性标准来克服这一缺陷。预计这些新标准将在很大程度上依赖于组件故障率计算。本文以冰岛输电系统为例,提供了一个威胁建模框架,强调了改进数据收集和故障率建模的必要性。在冰岛输电系统的案例研究中,探讨了在数据极少的情况下,使用威胁可信度指标实现时空故障率的可行性。最后,本文讨论了制定过程中隐含的假设和简化,以及将这种方法纳入现有实践所需的额外工作。具体而言,本文只涉及输电系统的短期和实时管理。
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引用次数: 8
Impact of Wind Power Scenario Reduction Techniques on Stochastic Unit Commitment 风电情景缩减技术对随机机组承诺的影响
Ershun Du, Ning Zhang, C. Kang, Jianhua Bai, Lu Cheng, Yi Ding
Stochastic unit commitment (SUC) is an effective method widely used to cope with the uncertainty of wind power. For the limitation of computation capability, only limited members of representative scenario can be considered in SUC. It thus rises the concern that whether the selected scenarios can fully represent the uncertainty nature of wind power. In this paper, the performance of reduced scenarios is quantified by both its statistical quality and its economic value on the optimality of SUC. Two metrics are proposed to quantify the distortion of the stochastic quality of wind power during the scenario reduction process: output uncertainty and ramp diversity. The economic value of reduced scenarios is evaluated as the difference between the optimal cost of the SUC model associated with limited scenarios and the expected "actual" operating costs when considering all the possible scenarios. Then, this paper reviews several typical wind power scenario techniques and categorizes them by both the scenario clustering approach and scenario reduction criterion. The quality of each method is tested using the real wind power data from NREL database and the modified IEEE RTS-79 system. Results show that the performance of SUC is more sensitive to the output uncertainty approximation rather than the ramp diversity approximation of reduced scenarios.
随机机组承诺(SUC)是一种广泛应用于应对风电不确定性的有效方法。由于计算能力的限制,在SUC中只能考虑具有代表性的场景的有限成员。这就引起了人们的关注,即所选择的情景是否能充分代表风力发电的不确定性。本文从统计质量和经济价值两个方面量化了简化情景对SUC最优性的影响。在情景缩减过程中,提出了两个量化风电随机质量失真的指标:输出不确定性和坡道多样性。精简方案的经济价值是考虑所有可能方案时,SUC模型在有限方案下的最优成本与预期“实际”运营成本之差。然后,回顾了几种典型的风电场景技术,并采用场景聚类方法和场景约简准则对其进行了分类。利用NREL数据库中的实际风电数据和改进后的IEEE RTS-79系统对每种方法的质量进行了测试。结果表明,在简化的场景下,SUC的性能对输出不确定性近似比斜坡分集近似更敏感。
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引用次数: 11
Weak Signal Carried by Chromatin DNA Sequences: Zooming In and Sobering Surprises 染色质DNA序列携带的弱信号:放大和清醒的惊喜
E. Trifonov
The 35 year long story of the chromatin signal (code) started with discovery of a very weak 10-11 base sequence periodicity of AA and TT dinucleotides, detected by distance analysis (equivalent of autocorrelation in time series). It soon became clear that this is counter-phase oscillation of AA and TT, or rather of RR and YY - by a version of multiple alignment ("synchronous detection" in signal processing). The campaign incrementally agonized through reconstruction of signal from its parts, N-gram Shannon extension and strong nucleosomes (SNs) with visible sequence periodicity to (RRRRRYYYYY)n pattern, and culminated in this form, with small changes suggested by consensuses from strong nucleosomes. 10-11 base YR dinucleotide periodicity (first suggested by Zhurkin) is a part of the above consensus. The periodically repeating YR elements form long tracks of hundreds to thousands base-pairs indicating that the chromatin consists of columnar structures, rather than of solitary nucleosomes. In particular, the classical SV40 minichromosome appears to form one continuous column.
染色质信号(代码)长达35年的历史始于发现AA和TT二核苷酸非常弱的10-11个碱基序列周期,通过距离分析(相当于时间序列的自相关)检测到。很快就清楚了,这是AA和TT的反相振荡,或者更确切地说,是RR和YY的反相振荡——通过一种版本的多重对准(信号处理中的“同步检测”)。通过部分信号的重建,n -gram香农延伸和具有明显序列周期性(RRRRRYYYYY)n模式的强核小体(SNs),运动逐渐痛苦,最终以这种形式结束,由强核小体的共识提示微小变化。10-11碱基YR二核苷酸周期性(最早由Zhurkin提出)是上述共识的一部分。周期性重复的YR元素形成数百到数千个碱基对的长轨迹,表明染色质由柱状结构组成,而不是孤立的核小体。特别是,经典的SV40小染色体似乎形成一个连续的柱。
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引用次数: 0
D-Spectra for Networks with Binary and Ternary Components 二元和三元网络的d -谱
I. Gertsbakh, Y. Shpungin, Radislav Vaisman
Network reliability is an important problem from both theoretical and practical points of view. One of the most powerful approaches for handling this problem is by using a so-called D-spectra method. We describe the D-spectra for two-state networks with binary and ternary components and give an overview of its principal combinatorial properties. In particular, we establish an important connection between the D-spectra and the number of network's failure sets of a given size.
网络可靠性是一个重要的理论和实践问题。处理这个问题最有效的方法之一是使用所谓的d谱方法。我们描述了二元和三元两态网络的d谱,并给出了其主要组合性质的概述。特别是,我们建立了d -谱与给定大小的网络故障集数量之间的重要联系。
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical Theory of Reliability and Aging: Teaching Comes from Kiev 可靠性和老化的数学理论:教学来自基辅
V. Koltover
The field of systems biology, in dealing with the problem of reliability, incorporates theoretical and experimental investigations of quantitative characteristics and mechanisms of failures and renewal processes. Regular conferences on the problems of reliability of biological systems, starting from 1975 in Kiev, former USSR, have given the strong impetus to research in this direction. It has also spurred the studies on biological reliability (under the style of "robustness") on other side of the former "iron curtain". In this report, I present the results of application of the systems reliability theory to the problems of aging. On this basis, the universal features of aging, such as the exponential growth of mortality rate with time and the correlation of longevity with the species-specific resting metabolism are naturally explained. The stochastic malfunctions of the mitochondrial electron transport nanoreactors, which produce superoxide radicals, seem to be of first importance. The longevity of human brain could reach 250 years should the antioxidant defense against the free-radical failures be perfect. Thus, aging occurs as the consequence of the genetically preset deficiency in reliability of the biomolecular constructions while the free-radical timer serves as the effective stochastic mechanism of realization of the program of aging. Besides, the systems reliability approach serves as heuristic methodology for development of novel preventive medicine.
系统生物学领域在处理可靠性问题时,结合了对定量特征和失效和更新过程机制的理论和实验研究。从1975年开始在前苏联基辅举行的关于生物系统可靠性问题的定期会议有力地推动了这方面的研究。它也刺激了在前“铁幕”的另一边对生物可靠性(在“稳健性”风格下)的研究。在这篇报告中,我提出了系统可靠性理论在老化问题上的应用结果。在此基础上,自然解释了衰老的普遍特征,如死亡率随时间呈指数增长,寿命与物种特有的静息代谢的相关性。产生超氧自由基的线粒体电子传递纳米反应器的随机故障似乎是最重要的。如果抗氧化防御自由基的功能完善,人脑的寿命可达250岁。因此,衰老是基因预设的生物分子结构可靠性不足的结果,而自由基计时器则是衰老程序实现的有效随机机制。此外,系统可靠性方法为新型预防医学的开发提供了启发式方法。
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引用次数: 4
New First Passage Times and Their Distributions 新首次通过时间及其分布
L. Cui, Jianhui Chen, Hongda Gao, Jingyuan Shen
The First Passage Time (FPT) is a very important index in the real world, which is ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and biology, with numerous examples of applications, especially in reliability field, the lifetime is a kind of FPTs. A huge literature has been given on the FPTs, some of them have been appeared in Nature, Science and other famous journals. However, the current FPT cannot cover the increasing needs in scientific research and engineering. Therefore, some new FPTs are needed from a point-view of theory and applications. In this note, two new FPT are introduced for a given finite state and continuous time Markov process. After giving the definitions of FPTs, the detailed contents such as distributions of FPTs and the distributions of the number of sojourn times until the realizations of the FPTs are presented. The Laplace transform technique is used in the derivation of formulae. Finally, the future researches on FPTs shall be discussed.
首次通过时间(First Passage Time, FPT)是现实世界中一个非常重要的指标,在物理、化学、生物等领域都有广泛的应用,特别是在可靠性领域,寿命是FPT的一种。关于fpt的文献很多,其中一些已经出现在《自然》、《科学》和其他著名期刊上。然而,目前的FPT已不能满足日益增长的科学研究和工程需求。因此,从理论和应用的角度来看,需要一些新的fpt。本文针对给定的有限状态和连续时间马尔可夫过程,引入了两个新的FPT。在给出了FPTs的定义后,给出了FPTs的分布和实现FPTs前停留次数的分布等详细内容。在公式的推导中使用了拉普拉斯变换技术。最后,对FPTs的未来研究进行了展望。
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引用次数: 1
Resistance to Stresses and Reliability of Biological Systems: Insights for Genetic Studies of Human Aging, Health, and Longevity 抗压力和生物系统的可靠性:对人类衰老、健康和长寿的遗传研究的见解
A. Yashin, K. Arbeev, L. Arbeeva, Deqing Wu, I. Akushevich, A. Kulminski, M. Kovtun, I. Zhbannikov, S. Ukraintseva
Connection between stress resistance and longevity in biological organisms is widely discussed and confirmed experimentally. Much less is known about the roles of genetic and non-genetic factors in regulation of such connection. Earlier studies emphasized that mechanism that realizes such connection involves interplay between processes of individual aging and external challenges. As a result of such interplay the parameters of the Gompertz mortality curve are negatively correlated. Such correlation has been also observed in the process of survival improvement in developed part of the world during the first part of the last century. The mortality decline was mainly due to favorable changes in external and living conditions as well as progress in health care. Surprisingly, similar pattern of survival changes is observed in the groups of individuals ranked with respect to the number of "longevity" alleles carried by individuals. We showed that this phenomenon can be interpreted as an increase in resistance to stresses and showed that similar effect is observed in reliability of technical systems when redundancy of their components increases. The availability of longitudinal data for genotyped individuals opens unique opportunity to address more sophisticated questions about roles of genetic and non-genetic factors in connection between aging, stress resistance and longevity in humans. For this purpose the dynamic model of human mortality and aging is used. We show how such model can be used in genetic analyses of fundamental processes of interaction between genetic and non-genetic factors to influence human longevity.
生物有机体的抗逆性与寿命之间的关系已被广泛讨论并在实验中得到证实。关于遗传和非遗传因素在调节这种联系中的作用,我们所知甚少。早期的研究强调,实现这种联系的机制涉及个体衰老过程与外部挑战的相互作用。由于这种相互作用,Gompertz死亡率曲线的参数呈负相关。在上世纪上半叶世界发达地区的生存改善过程中也观察到这种相关性。死亡率的下降主要是由于外部和生活条件的有利变化以及保健方面的进步。令人惊讶的是,在个体携带的“长寿”等位基因数量排名的个体群体中,也观察到类似的生存变化模式。我们表明,这种现象可以解释为对应力的抵抗力增加,并表明当其组件冗余度增加时,在技术系统的可靠性中观察到类似的效果。基因型个体纵向数据的可用性为解决更复杂的问题提供了独特的机会,这些问题涉及人类衰老、抗逆性和长寿之间的遗传和非遗传因素的作用。为此,使用了人类死亡率和衰老的动态模型。我们展示了这种模型如何用于影响人类寿命的遗传和非遗传因素之间相互作用的基本过程的遗传分析。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptive Management System of Dependability and Safety of Railway Infrastructure 铁路基础设施可靠性与安全性自适应管理系统
Aleksey Zamyshlyaev, I. Shubinsky
The paper considers issues related to well-balanced management of resources for JSC RZD infrastructure maintenance under the conditions of scarce finances. The authors have made an analysis of the RAMS methodology and its further transformation into a complex of Russian standards and normative and methodology documentation base applied for management of life cycle processes of railway transport systems (URRAN) in JSC RZD. The paper studies the prerequisites and key aspects for development of the innovative technology of management decision making support for increase of dependability and functional safety of transport in Russia at all life-cycle stages.
本文研究了在资金匮乏的条件下,JSC RZD基础设施维护的资源均衡管理问题。作者分析了RAMS方法及其进一步转化为适用于JSC RZD铁路运输系统(URRAN)生命周期过程管理的俄罗斯标准和规范和方法文档库的复合体。本文研究了发展管理决策支持创新技术的先决条件和关键方面,以提高俄罗斯运输在所有生命周期阶段的可靠性和功能安全性。
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引用次数: 2
Distribution-Free Comparisons of Coherent Systems 相干系统的无分布比较
J. Navarro
The distribution-free stochastic comparisons of coherent systems is a relevant topic in the reliability Theory. Several techniques have been used to obtain such comparisons. In this paper, we review of the comparison results obtained by using signatures and distorted distributions under different assumptions for the components. These assumptions include the cases of independent and identically distributed (IID) components, exchangeable (EXC) components, independent non-identically distributed (INID) components, possibly dependent identically distributed (DID) components and arbitrary possibly dependent components (DNID).
相干系统的无分布随机比较是可靠性理论中的一个相关课题。已经使用了几种技术来进行这种比较。在本文中,我们回顾了在不同假设条件下使用特征和扭曲分布所得到的比较结果。这些假设包括独立同分布(IID)组件、可交换(EXC)组件、独立非同分布(INID)组件、可能依赖的同分布(DID)组件和任意可能依赖的组件(DID)。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)
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