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2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)最新文献

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Assistance to Palliative Pediatric Patients: Simulation Model 协助姑息儿科患者:模拟模型
G. Romanin-Jacur, Giorgia Mondin, A. Liguori, F. Menegazzo
Pediatric Palliative Cares are an approach which improves patients' and their families' life quality in front of the problem connected with life-threatening and life-limiting diseases. The two current assistance types are Home Integrated Assistance and Hospice, while acute hospital places, in competition against ordinary patients, are required in case of more severe disease phases or lack of alternative possibilities. A stochastic model, describing pediatric palliative assistance behavior and its use by patients, has been built, in order to evidence critical points and possible deficiencies in the assistance network, to suggest remedial work and evaluate consequent effects. Different policies in addressing patients to various assistance types have been examined. The model has been simulated by tool Arena and experimentally applied to Veneto Region in Italy. The results report, for every adopted policy and different resource dimensioning: a) the average number of rejected ordinary patients and respectively palliative patients trying to enter hospital departments, b) the average number of rejected palliative patients trying to enter hospice and respectively home integrated assistance. The scope lays in finding achievable policies reducing total costs.
儿童姑息治疗是在危及生命和限制生命的疾病面前改善患者及其家属生活质量的一种方法。目前的两种援助类型是家庭综合援助和临终关怀,而在疾病阶段较严重或没有其他选择的情况下,需要紧急医院床位,与普通病人竞争。建立了一个描述儿童姑息援助行为及其患者使用情况的随机模型,以证明援助网络中的关键点和可能存在的不足,从而建议补救工作并评估后续效果。研究了针对不同援助类型的病人的不同政策。利用Arena工具对模型进行了数值模拟,并在意大利威尼托地区进行了实验应用。结果报告,对于每一项政策和不同的资源维度:a)被拒绝的普通患者和分别试图进入医院科室的姑息治疗患者的平均人数,b)被拒绝的姑息治疗患者分别试图进入安宁疗护和家庭综合援助的平均人数。其范围在于寻找可实现的降低总成本的政策。
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引用次数: 1
Assessment of Organization Development Speed Based on the Analysis of Standards Efficiency 基于标准效率分析的组织发展速度评价
Y. Klochkov, A. Gazizulina, N. Golovin
Standardization has proven to be an efficient regulation mechanism as well as means for storage of best experience. For instance, lean production methods developed in Japan emphasize the importance of decision standardization. In our paper we describe the method for assisting company competitiveness based on evaluation of standardization quality of processes, technologies implemented at a company and products being manufactured. Our method regards standardization as an instrument for analysis of company efficiency, rather than as a process. Indeed, production of new goods of high demand involves revision of design of these goods and technologies for their production. Therefore, the implementation dynamics of new rules, procedures and norms is increasing. Analysis of this dynamics can give us data about company development and development of some particular processes. Comparing development speed of two competing companies can help us to forecast their state of business. To illustrate the described method we give some real data of one of industrial company which produces automobile components as well as data of one of international airports in Russia.
标准化已被证明是一种有效的监管机制,也是储存最佳经验的手段。例如,日本开发的精益生产方法强调决策标准化的重要性。在我们的论文中,我们描述了基于评估标准化质量的公司竞争力的方法,在公司实施的技术和正在制造的产品。我们的方法将标准化视为分析公司效率的工具,而不是一个过程。事实上,生产高需求的新产品需要对这些产品的设计和生产技术进行修改。因此,新的规则、程序和规范的执行力度正在增加。对这种动态的分析可以为我们提供有关公司发展和某些特定过程发展的数据。比较两家竞争公司的发展速度可以帮助我们预测他们的经营状况。为了说明所描述的方法,我们给出了一家生产汽车零部件的工业公司和俄罗斯一家国际机场的实际数据。
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引用次数: 50
Locally Optimal Inventory Control with Time Delay in Deliveries and Incomplete Information on Demand 配送时滞和需求信息不完全的局部最优库存控制
V. Smagin, G. Koshkin, Konstantin S. Kim
Algorithm for inventory control with incomplete information about the model of demand is proposed. Algorithm is synthesized taking into account time delay. Inventory control algorithm based on local criterion with using Kalman filtering for systems with unknown input is constructed. Examples are given to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.
提出了需求模型信息不完全情况下的库存控制算法。算法综合考虑了时间延迟。构造了未知输入系统的基于局部准则的卡尔曼滤波库存控制算法。举例说明了所提方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 4
Corridor Singe Window as an Innovative Instrument Ensuring Integrity of the Entire Supply Chain of the Transport Corridor 走廊单窗作为保障运输走廊整个供应链完整性的创新工具
Algirdas Akalys, L. Greičiūnė, Raimondas Akalys
The East -- West Transport Corridor (EWTC) in the Southern part of the Baltic Sea Region is an effective testing area for the development of new business models for collaborative logistics flows fulfilling customers' needs and taking economic, social and environmental responsibility into account. Innovated ITS services are needed to support transportation activities along the corridor. This is especially important for the EWTC due to its physical nature, interchange points, multi-language and cross boarder interaction. Information on a constantly updated traffic situation and interchange status, tracking of goods, booking and confirmation services, intelligent truck parking and services opening faster border crossing routes would ensure more efficient transportation and handling thereof. One of the main EU eMAR project (the paper is based on its outcomes) findings is that the Corridor's Single Window (CSW) model will enable: transferring all information via one standard communication channel without creating integration interfaces for each separate information system along the EWTC, enhancement of the end-to-end supply chain security by ensuring integrity of the entire supply chain and prompt risk assessment through CSW as data sharing instrument between the authorities and commercial stakeholders in the EWTC, as well as facilitation of integration of long distance and last mile transportation.
波罗的海地区南部的东西运输走廊(EWTC)是开发协作物流新商业模式的有效试验区,可以满足客户的需求,同时考虑到经济、社会和环境责任。需要创新的ITS服务来支持走廊沿线的交通活动。由于其物理性质、交换点、多语言和跨境互动,这对EWTC尤其重要。不断更新的交通状况和交汇处状况、货物跟踪、预订和确认服务、智能卡车停放和开通更快过境路线的服务等信息,将确保更有效的运输和处理。欧盟eMAR项目(本文基于其成果)的主要发现之一是,走廊的单一窗口(CSW)模式将使:通过一个标准通信通道传输所有信息,而无需为EWTC沿线的每个单独的信息系统创建集成接口,通过确保整个供应链的完整性,通过CSW作为EWTC当局和商业利益相关者之间的数据共享工具,及时进行风险评估,从而增强端到端供应链的安全性,并促进长途和最后一英里运输的整合。
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引用次数: 0
Use of Stochastic Models for Operational Efficiency Analysis of Multi Power Source Traction Drives 基于随机模型的多动力牵引传动运行效率分析
I. Bolvashenkov, H. Herzog
Modern development of new technologies, equipment and materials in the field of electric power engineering has allowed a fresh look at the problem of increasing economic efficiency, environmental performance and reliability of electric propulsion for different types of the vehicle drive trains. Considering the higher requirements regarding reliability and fault tolerance, efficiency, ecological parameters and limitations on the installation space and weight of the all traction equipment, the correct choice of type and design features of the electric propulsion drive is extremely important carry out on the basis of a system approach. This paper describes the experience of using stochastic models to assess the operational efficiency of the vehicle electric propulsion systems, consisting of a few generating elements, and one or more traction motors. This type of propulsion system is typical for the icebreakers, arctic cargo ships, diesel-electric locomotives, hybrid cars and aircraft. The deterministic approach does not allow evaluate probabilistic character of operational processes, such as energy output of thermal engines, operational fuel consumption, load modes of traction electric motors, as well as a large number of random factors affecting the accuracy of the simulation results.
电力工程领域的新技术、新设备和新材料的现代发展,使人们对提高不同类型车辆传动系电力推进的经济效率、环境性能和可靠性的问题有了新的认识。考虑到对所有牵引设备的可靠性和容错性、效率、生态参数的更高要求以及对安装空间和重量的限制,在系统方法的基础上正确选择电力推进传动的类型和设计特点是极其重要的。本文介绍了用随机模型来评估由几个发电元件和一个或多个牵引电动机组成的车辆电力推进系统的运行效率的经验。这种类型的推进系统是典型的破冰船,北极货船,柴油电力机车,混合动力汽车和飞机。确定性方法不允许评估运行过程的概率特征,例如热机的能量输出、运行燃料消耗、牵引电动机的负载模式以及影响仿真结果准确性的大量随机因素。
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引用次数: 26
On Markov Reward Approach to Failure Criticality Importance Assessment for Aging Multi-state System 老化多状态系统失效临界重要性评估的马尔可夫奖励方法
Shay Toledano, Inna Gartsman, Guy Avitan, I. Frenkel, L. Khvatskin
The paper presents the Markov Reward approach to failure critical importance assessment for the aging multi-state system. Aging is treated as increasing failure rate. Failure criticality importance for multi-state system is directly calculated via calculation of mean number of system failures. The suggested approach presents the non-homogeneous Markov reward model for computation of this importance measure for aging multi-state system under minimal repair. The model incorporates time-varying failure rates into ordinary Markov reward model. Corresponding procedures for reward matrix definition are suggested for this importance measure. A numerical example is presented in order to illustrate the approach.
提出了老化多状态系统失效临界重要性评估的马尔可夫奖励方法。老化被视为故障率的增加。通过计算系统平均失效次数,直接计算多状态系统的失效临界重要性。该方法提出了非齐次马尔可夫奖励模型,用于计算最小修复下老化多状态系统的这一重要度量。该模型将时变失效率纳入普通马尔可夫奖励模型。针对这一重要度量,提出了相应的奖励矩阵定义程序。最后给出了一个数值算例来说明该方法。
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引用次数: 7
Phase-Type Models for Competing Risks 竞争风险的阶段型模型
B. Lindqvist
We extend the phase-type methodology for modeling of lifetime distributions to the case of competing risks. This is done by considering finite state Markov chains in continuous time with more than one absorbing state, letting each absorbing state correspond to a particular risk. We study statistical estimation from (possibly censored) competing risks data modeled by the phase-type approach. Using results from the literature we consider estimation via the EM algorithm as well as Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Treatment of covariates in competing risks data is also be discussed.
我们将生命周期分布建模的阶段型方法扩展到竞争风险的情况。这是通过考虑具有多个吸收状态的连续时间有限状态马尔可夫链来实现的,让每个吸收状态对应于一个特定的风险。我们研究了由相型方法建模的(可能删减的)竞争风险数据的统计估计。利用文献的结果,我们考虑通过EM算法进行估计,以及使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行贝叶斯估计。本文还讨论了竞争风险数据中协变量的处理。
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引用次数: 1
Stochastic Analysis of Systems Exposed to Very Unlikely Faults 极不可能发生故障的系统的随机分析
D. Caban, T. Walkowiak
When designing and operating any technical system, it is essential to take into account the possible faults that may occur during its operation. Dependability/reliability analysis lets us determine the level of redundancy that ensures continuity of service at an economically justified level of assurance. It ensures that all the faults are covered proportionately to the probability of their occurrence. Thus, the analysis tends to underemphasize the events that are very improbable, such as the simultaneous breakdown of all or almost all system components (e.g. due to a natural disaster). Such situations are addressed by risk analysis which combines the probability of events occurrence and their consequences. The use of straightforward stochastic modelling in this case is very difficult - Monte Carlo simulation requires huge runtimes to observe occurrences of such events. The solution is based on standard stochastic approach, modified by injecting artificially some unlikely events into the model. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated in two test studies: a discrete transport system and a Web based information system.
在设计和运行任何技术系统时,必须考虑到其在运行过程中可能发生的故障。可靠性/可靠性分析使我们能够确定在经济合理的保证水平上确保服务连续性的冗余级别。它确保所有的故障都按其发生的概率被覆盖。因此,分析倾向于低估非常不可能发生的事件,例如所有或几乎所有系统组件同时崩溃(例如,由于自然灾害)。风险分析结合事件发生的概率及其后果来处理这种情况。在这种情况下使用直接的随机建模是非常困难的-蒙特卡罗模拟需要大量的运行时间来观察这些事件的发生。该解决方案基于标准的随机方法,并通过人为地向模型中注入一些不太可能的事件进行修改。在两个测试研究中证明了所提出方法的有效性:一个离散传输系统和一个基于Web的信息系统。
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引用次数: 0
Frailty Modeling and Penalized Likelihood Methodology 脆弱性建模和惩罚似然方法学
Filia Vonta, C. Koukouvinos, E. Androulakis
The penalized Gamma frailty model methodology of Fan and Li was extended in our previous papers to other frailty distributions. The penalty term was imposed on a generalized form of the likelihood function designed for clusters, which allows the direct use of many different distributions for the frailty parameter. In this paper, we discuss the asymptotic properties of the penalized likelihood estimators in shared frailty models. It is known that the rates of convergence depend on the tuning parameter which is involved in the penalty function. It is shown that with a proper choice of the tuning parameter and the penalty function, the penalized likelihood estimators possess an oracle property, namely, that they work as well as if the correct submodel was known in advance.
Fan和Li的惩罚Gamma脆弱性模型方法在我们之前的论文中被扩展到其他脆弱性分布。惩罚项被施加在为聚类设计的似然函数的广义形式上,它允许直接使用许多不同的脆弱性参数分布。本文讨论了共享脆弱性模型中惩罚似然估计的渐近性质。众所周知,收敛速率取决于惩罚函数中涉及的调谐参数。结果表明,在适当选择调优参数和惩罚函数的情况下,惩罚似然估计器具有一种oracle属性,即,如果事先知道正确的子模型,它们的工作效果也会很好。
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引用次数: 0
Using a General Purpose Computational and Experimental Method to Qualification Electrical Devices to Seismic Impact 用通用的计算和实验方法对电气设备进行地震冲击鉴定
V. Skliarov
This paper considers the methodology of evaluation of the stability of large-sized electrical equipment to the seismic impacts. Conclusions are useful in extending the operational lifecycle of nuclear power plant units and facilities with long operational lifecycle (30 years or more). The applied method of nondestructive evaluation provides control of critical components at different spectra of seismic impacts. The proposed methodology is based on experience of vibration and shock resistance testing of equipment in a certified test center of the NSC "Institute of Metrology" in the period from 1970 to 2015.
本文研究了大型电气设备在地震作用下的稳定性评价方法。结论对延长运行周期较长(30年以上)的核电站机组和设施的运行周期具有借鉴意义。应用无损评价方法对不同地震冲击谱下的关键构件进行控制。所提出的方法是基于1970年至2015年期间在NSC“计量研究所”认证测试中心对设备进行振动和抗冲击测试的经验。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)
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