G. Romanin-Jacur, Giorgia Mondin, A. Liguori, F. Menegazzo
Pediatric Palliative Cares are an approach which improves patients' and their families' life quality in front of the problem connected with life-threatening and life-limiting diseases. The two current assistance types are Home Integrated Assistance and Hospice, while acute hospital places, in competition against ordinary patients, are required in case of more severe disease phases or lack of alternative possibilities. A stochastic model, describing pediatric palliative assistance behavior and its use by patients, has been built, in order to evidence critical points and possible deficiencies in the assistance network, to suggest remedial work and evaluate consequent effects. Different policies in addressing patients to various assistance types have been examined. The model has been simulated by tool Arena and experimentally applied to Veneto Region in Italy. The results report, for every adopted policy and different resource dimensioning: a) the average number of rejected ordinary patients and respectively palliative patients trying to enter hospital departments, b) the average number of rejected palliative patients trying to enter hospice and respectively home integrated assistance. The scope lays in finding achievable policies reducing total costs.
{"title":"Assistance to Palliative Pediatric Patients: Simulation Model","authors":"G. Romanin-Jacur, Giorgia Mondin, A. Liguori, F. Menegazzo","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.77","url":null,"abstract":"Pediatric Palliative Cares are an approach which improves patients' and their families' life quality in front of the problem connected with life-threatening and life-limiting diseases. The two current assistance types are Home Integrated Assistance and Hospice, while acute hospital places, in competition against ordinary patients, are required in case of more severe disease phases or lack of alternative possibilities. A stochastic model, describing pediatric palliative assistance behavior and its use by patients, has been built, in order to evidence critical points and possible deficiencies in the assistance network, to suggest remedial work and evaluate consequent effects. Different policies in addressing patients to various assistance types have been examined. The model has been simulated by tool Arena and experimentally applied to Veneto Region in Italy. The results report, for every adopted policy and different resource dimensioning: a) the average number of rejected ordinary patients and respectively palliative patients trying to enter hospital departments, b) the average number of rejected palliative patients trying to enter hospice and respectively home integrated assistance. The scope lays in finding achievable policies reducing total costs.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128965355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Standardization has proven to be an efficient regulation mechanism as well as means for storage of best experience. For instance, lean production methods developed in Japan emphasize the importance of decision standardization. In our paper we describe the method for assisting company competitiveness based on evaluation of standardization quality of processes, technologies implemented at a company and products being manufactured. Our method regards standardization as an instrument for analysis of company efficiency, rather than as a process. Indeed, production of new goods of high demand involves revision of design of these goods and technologies for their production. Therefore, the implementation dynamics of new rules, procedures and norms is increasing. Analysis of this dynamics can give us data about company development and development of some particular processes. Comparing development speed of two competing companies can help us to forecast their state of business. To illustrate the described method we give some real data of one of industrial company which produces automobile components as well as data of one of international airports in Russia.
{"title":"Assessment of Organization Development Speed Based on the Analysis of Standards Efficiency","authors":"Y. Klochkov, A. Gazizulina, N. Golovin","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.93","url":null,"abstract":"Standardization has proven to be an efficient regulation mechanism as well as means for storage of best experience. For instance, lean production methods developed in Japan emphasize the importance of decision standardization. In our paper we describe the method for assisting company competitiveness based on evaluation of standardization quality of processes, technologies implemented at a company and products being manufactured. Our method regards standardization as an instrument for analysis of company efficiency, rather than as a process. Indeed, production of new goods of high demand involves revision of design of these goods and technologies for their production. Therefore, the implementation dynamics of new rules, procedures and norms is increasing. Analysis of this dynamics can give us data about company development and development of some particular processes. Comparing development speed of two competing companies can help us to forecast their state of business. To illustrate the described method we give some real data of one of industrial company which produces automobile components as well as data of one of international airports in Russia.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126376511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Algorithm for inventory control with incomplete information about the model of demand is proposed. Algorithm is synthesized taking into account time delay. Inventory control algorithm based on local criterion with using Kalman filtering for systems with unknown input is constructed. Examples are given to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.
{"title":"Locally Optimal Inventory Control with Time Delay in Deliveries and Incomplete Information on Demand","authors":"V. Smagin, G. Koshkin, Konstantin S. Kim","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.99","url":null,"abstract":"Algorithm for inventory control with incomplete information about the model of demand is proposed. Algorithm is synthesized taking into account time delay. Inventory control algorithm based on local criterion with using Kalman filtering for systems with unknown input is constructed. Examples are given to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126512749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The East -- West Transport Corridor (EWTC) in the Southern part of the Baltic Sea Region is an effective testing area for the development of new business models for collaborative logistics flows fulfilling customers' needs and taking economic, social and environmental responsibility into account. Innovated ITS services are needed to support transportation activities along the corridor. This is especially important for the EWTC due to its physical nature, interchange points, multi-language and cross boarder interaction. Information on a constantly updated traffic situation and interchange status, tracking of goods, booking and confirmation services, intelligent truck parking and services opening faster border crossing routes would ensure more efficient transportation and handling thereof. One of the main EU eMAR project (the paper is based on its outcomes) findings is that the Corridor's Single Window (CSW) model will enable: transferring all information via one standard communication channel without creating integration interfaces for each separate information system along the EWTC, enhancement of the end-to-end supply chain security by ensuring integrity of the entire supply chain and prompt risk assessment through CSW as data sharing instrument between the authorities and commercial stakeholders in the EWTC, as well as facilitation of integration of long distance and last mile transportation.
{"title":"Corridor Singe Window as an Innovative Instrument Ensuring Integrity of the Entire Supply Chain of the Transport Corridor","authors":"Algirdas Akalys, L. Greičiūnė, Raimondas Akalys","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.113","url":null,"abstract":"The East -- West Transport Corridor (EWTC) in the Southern part of the Baltic Sea Region is an effective testing area for the development of new business models for collaborative logistics flows fulfilling customers' needs and taking economic, social and environmental responsibility into account. Innovated ITS services are needed to support transportation activities along the corridor. This is especially important for the EWTC due to its physical nature, interchange points, multi-language and cross boarder interaction. Information on a constantly updated traffic situation and interchange status, tracking of goods, booking and confirmation services, intelligent truck parking and services opening faster border crossing routes would ensure more efficient transportation and handling thereof. One of the main EU eMAR project (the paper is based on its outcomes) findings is that the Corridor's Single Window (CSW) model will enable: transferring all information via one standard communication channel without creating integration interfaces for each separate information system along the EWTC, enhancement of the end-to-end supply chain security by ensuring integrity of the entire supply chain and prompt risk assessment through CSW as data sharing instrument between the authorities and commercial stakeholders in the EWTC, as well as facilitation of integration of long distance and last mile transportation.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116134472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Modern development of new technologies, equipment and materials in the field of electric power engineering has allowed a fresh look at the problem of increasing economic efficiency, environmental performance and reliability of electric propulsion for different types of the vehicle drive trains. Considering the higher requirements regarding reliability and fault tolerance, efficiency, ecological parameters and limitations on the installation space and weight of the all traction equipment, the correct choice of type and design features of the electric propulsion drive is extremely important carry out on the basis of a system approach. This paper describes the experience of using stochastic models to assess the operational efficiency of the vehicle electric propulsion systems, consisting of a few generating elements, and one or more traction motors. This type of propulsion system is typical for the icebreakers, arctic cargo ships, diesel-electric locomotives, hybrid cars and aircraft. The deterministic approach does not allow evaluate probabilistic character of operational processes, such as energy output of thermal engines, operational fuel consumption, load modes of traction electric motors, as well as a large number of random factors affecting the accuracy of the simulation results.
{"title":"Use of Stochastic Models for Operational Efficiency Analysis of Multi Power Source Traction Drives","authors":"I. Bolvashenkov, H. Herzog","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.30","url":null,"abstract":"Modern development of new technologies, equipment and materials in the field of electric power engineering has allowed a fresh look at the problem of increasing economic efficiency, environmental performance and reliability of electric propulsion for different types of the vehicle drive trains. Considering the higher requirements regarding reliability and fault tolerance, efficiency, ecological parameters and limitations on the installation space and weight of the all traction equipment, the correct choice of type and design features of the electric propulsion drive is extremely important carry out on the basis of a system approach. This paper describes the experience of using stochastic models to assess the operational efficiency of the vehicle electric propulsion systems, consisting of a few generating elements, and one or more traction motors. This type of propulsion system is typical for the icebreakers, arctic cargo ships, diesel-electric locomotives, hybrid cars and aircraft. The deterministic approach does not allow evaluate probabilistic character of operational processes, such as energy output of thermal engines, operational fuel consumption, load modes of traction electric motors, as well as a large number of random factors affecting the accuracy of the simulation results.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130193100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shay Toledano, Inna Gartsman, Guy Avitan, I. Frenkel, L. Khvatskin
The paper presents the Markov Reward approach to failure critical importance assessment for the aging multi-state system. Aging is treated as increasing failure rate. Failure criticality importance for multi-state system is directly calculated via calculation of mean number of system failures. The suggested approach presents the non-homogeneous Markov reward model for computation of this importance measure for aging multi-state system under minimal repair. The model incorporates time-varying failure rates into ordinary Markov reward model. Corresponding procedures for reward matrix definition are suggested for this importance measure. A numerical example is presented in order to illustrate the approach.
{"title":"On Markov Reward Approach to Failure Criticality Importance Assessment for Aging Multi-state System","authors":"Shay Toledano, Inna Gartsman, Guy Avitan, I. Frenkel, L. Khvatskin","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.66","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the Markov Reward approach to failure critical importance assessment for the aging multi-state system. Aging is treated as increasing failure rate. Failure criticality importance for multi-state system is directly calculated via calculation of mean number of system failures. The suggested approach presents the non-homogeneous Markov reward model for computation of this importance measure for aging multi-state system under minimal repair. The model incorporates time-varying failure rates into ordinary Markov reward model. Corresponding procedures for reward matrix definition are suggested for this importance measure. A numerical example is presented in order to illustrate the approach.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"174 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134011335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We extend the phase-type methodology for modeling of lifetime distributions to the case of competing risks. This is done by considering finite state Markov chains in continuous time with more than one absorbing state, letting each absorbing state correspond to a particular risk. We study statistical estimation from (possibly censored) competing risks data modeled by the phase-type approach. Using results from the literature we consider estimation via the EM algorithm as well as Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Treatment of covariates in competing risks data is also be discussed.
{"title":"Phase-Type Models for Competing Risks","authors":"B. Lindqvist","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.17","url":null,"abstract":"We extend the phase-type methodology for modeling of lifetime distributions to the case of competing risks. This is done by considering finite state Markov chains in continuous time with more than one absorbing state, letting each absorbing state correspond to a particular risk. We study statistical estimation from (possibly censored) competing risks data modeled by the phase-type approach. Using results from the literature we consider estimation via the EM algorithm as well as Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Treatment of covariates in competing risks data is also be discussed.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"84 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133072771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When designing and operating any technical system, it is essential to take into account the possible faults that may occur during its operation. Dependability/reliability analysis lets us determine the level of redundancy that ensures continuity of service at an economically justified level of assurance. It ensures that all the faults are covered proportionately to the probability of their occurrence. Thus, the analysis tends to underemphasize the events that are very improbable, such as the simultaneous breakdown of all or almost all system components (e.g. due to a natural disaster). Such situations are addressed by risk analysis which combines the probability of events occurrence and their consequences. The use of straightforward stochastic modelling in this case is very difficult - Monte Carlo simulation requires huge runtimes to observe occurrences of such events. The solution is based on standard stochastic approach, modified by injecting artificially some unlikely events into the model. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated in two test studies: a discrete transport system and a Web based information system.
{"title":"Stochastic Analysis of Systems Exposed to Very Unlikely Faults","authors":"D. Caban, T. Walkowiak","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.58","url":null,"abstract":"When designing and operating any technical system, it is essential to take into account the possible faults that may occur during its operation. Dependability/reliability analysis lets us determine the level of redundancy that ensures continuity of service at an economically justified level of assurance. It ensures that all the faults are covered proportionately to the probability of their occurrence. Thus, the analysis tends to underemphasize the events that are very improbable, such as the simultaneous breakdown of all or almost all system components (e.g. due to a natural disaster). Such situations are addressed by risk analysis which combines the probability of events occurrence and their consequences. The use of straightforward stochastic modelling in this case is very difficult - Monte Carlo simulation requires huge runtimes to observe occurrences of such events. The solution is based on standard stochastic approach, modified by injecting artificially some unlikely events into the model. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated in two test studies: a discrete transport system and a Web based information system.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"236 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114025585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The penalized Gamma frailty model methodology of Fan and Li was extended in our previous papers to other frailty distributions. The penalty term was imposed on a generalized form of the likelihood function designed for clusters, which allows the direct use of many different distributions for the frailty parameter. In this paper, we discuss the asymptotic properties of the penalized likelihood estimators in shared frailty models. It is known that the rates of convergence depend on the tuning parameter which is involved in the penalty function. It is shown that with a proper choice of the tuning parameter and the penalty function, the penalized likelihood estimators possess an oracle property, namely, that they work as well as if the correct submodel was known in advance.
{"title":"Frailty Modeling and Penalized Likelihood Methodology","authors":"Filia Vonta, C. Koukouvinos, E. Androulakis","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.79","url":null,"abstract":"The penalized Gamma frailty model methodology of Fan and Li was extended in our previous papers to other frailty distributions. The penalty term was imposed on a generalized form of the likelihood function designed for clusters, which allows the direct use of many different distributions for the frailty parameter. In this paper, we discuss the asymptotic properties of the penalized likelihood estimators in shared frailty models. It is known that the rates of convergence depend on the tuning parameter which is involved in the penalty function. It is shown that with a proper choice of the tuning parameter and the penalty function, the penalized likelihood estimators possess an oracle property, namely, that they work as well as if the correct submodel was known in advance.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114456037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper considers the methodology of evaluation of the stability of large-sized electrical equipment to the seismic impacts. Conclusions are useful in extending the operational lifecycle of nuclear power plant units and facilities with long operational lifecycle (30 years or more). The applied method of nondestructive evaluation provides control of critical components at different spectra of seismic impacts. The proposed methodology is based on experience of vibration and shock resistance testing of equipment in a certified test center of the NSC "Institute of Metrology" in the period from 1970 to 2015.
{"title":"Using a General Purpose Computational and Experimental Method to Qualification Electrical Devices to Seismic Impact","authors":"V. Skliarov","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.35","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the methodology of evaluation of the stability of large-sized electrical equipment to the seismic impacts. Conclusions are useful in extending the operational lifecycle of nuclear power plant units and facilities with long operational lifecycle (30 years or more). The applied method of nondestructive evaluation provides control of critical components at different spectra of seismic impacts. The proposed methodology is based on experience of vibration and shock resistance testing of equipment in a certified test center of the NSC \"Institute of Metrology\" in the period from 1970 to 2015.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115294632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}