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2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)最新文献

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Probabilistic analysis for low voltage ride through test data of doubly fed induction generators in China 利用国内双馈感应发电机试验数据进行低压行驶的概率分析
Can. Chen, Pengfei Cao, Chen Shen, Linlin Wu, C. Singh
An important aspect of research on integrating wind farms is the analysis of short circuit current contribution to the power grid. In this paper, the fault related features of doubly fed induction generators (DFIGs) are modeled using low voltage ride through (LVRT) test data sets. The dynamic behavior of DFIGs after fault occurrence is represented by a typical curve that is obtained using a curve clustering technique - the backward scenario reduction method. Then, two fault features (the maximum value of the short circuit current termed as peak current and the time to reach it), which are important for protection relay settings, are collected and analyzed using the probability density functions (PDFs). Two cases are considered in the analysis and some discussions are presented in the end.
集成风电场研究的一个重要方面是分析短路电流对电网的贡献。本文利用低电压穿越(LVRT)试验数据集对双馈感应发电机(DFIGs)的故障相关特征进行了建模。采用曲线聚类技术——倒向场景约简法,得到一条典型曲线来表示dfig在故障发生后的动态行为。然后,利用概率密度函数(pdf)收集和分析了两个故障特征(称为峰值电流的短路电流最大值和达到峰值电流的时间),这对保护继电器设置很重要。在分析中考虑了两个案例,并进行了一些讨论。
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引用次数: 0
A stochastic production simulation model for renewable integration and system flexibility studies 基于可再生能源集成和系统柔性研究的随机生产仿真模型
Shucheng Liu, Wenxiong Huang, Yi Zhang
A stochastic production simulation model was developed to evaluate the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system capacity and flexibility sufficiency in order to integrate high volume of renewable generation to meet the California state renewables portfolio standard (RPS) goals. The model, which simulates the operation of the CAISO system, uses four stochastic variables, generation resource forced outages, load, solar and wind generation, to capture a wide range of possible system conditions. A novel pattern preserving methodology was developed to create samples of stochastic load, solar and wind generation variables. The model was used to study the system capacity and flexibility needs to integrate 33% renewable generation in California. The results of this study were filed to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in the Long Term Procurement Plan (LTPP) proceeding.
为了整合大量可再生能源发电以满足加州可再生能源投资组合标准(RPS)目标,建立了一个随机生产模拟模型来评估加州独立系统运营商(CAISO)系统的容量和灵活性。该模型模拟了CAISO系统的运行,使用四个随机变量,发电资源强制中断,负荷,太阳能和风力发电,以捕获广泛的可能的系统条件。提出了一种新的模式保持方法来创建随机负荷、太阳能和风力发电变量的样本。该模型用于研究加利福尼亚州整合33%可再生能源发电的系统容量和灵活性需求。这项研究的结果已在长期采购计划(LTPP)程序中提交给加州公用事业委员会(CPUC)。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal selection of high voltage transmission connected to island systems 孤岛系统高压输电的优化选择
Xiaoxi Li, Xin Zhang, Yunting Song, Wei Tang, Yinshun Wang, Jingjing Wang, Xiaofei Hu, Cheng Yang
The development of high voltage technology provides technical conditions for the transmission of offshore new energy, but it is necessary to consider the operation status of power grid when we decide the way of grid connection. This paper focuses on the stability of the system and evaluates three access form - the high voltage alternating current (HVAC), traditional direct current (DC) and flexible DC transmission. Evaluation index and evaluation system are established. The evaluation index selects indicators from three aspects of static security, transient stability and short circuit capacity. Evaluation system is based on math method. It gets the indicators' weight through the game theory and uses intuitionistic fuzzy theory combining strict fitting degree to get the optimization choice. The theoretical analysis is based on the actual island model, evaluated through BPA simulations. Simulation results are presented to validate the expected performance of the proposed evaluation method.
高压技术的发展为海上新能源的传输提供了技术条件,但在确定并网方式时需要考虑电网的运行状况。本文着重分析了系统的稳定性,并对高压交流电(HVAC)、传统直流输电(DC)和柔性直流输电三种接入方式进行了评价。建立了评价指标和评价体系。评价指标从静态安全性、暂态稳定性和短路容量三个方面选取指标。评价体系基于数学方法。通过博弈论得到各指标的权重,并结合严格拟合度的直觉模糊理论得到最优选择。理论分析基于实际岛屿模型,并通过BPA模拟进行评估。仿真结果验证了所提评价方法的预期性能。
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引用次数: 0
The anomalous data identification study of reactive power optimization system based on big data 基于大数据的无功优化系统异常数据识别研究
Sheng Wanxing, Liu Keyan, Niu Huanna, W. Yuzhu, Zhao Jingxiang
With the continuous development of smart grid and energy Internet, modern power system is gradually evolved into the one with funnel large amounts of data and calculation of large information systems, which shows the applicability and feasibility of the analysis technology of data mining. This paper puts forward a big data modeling method for the reactive power optimization based on the theory of the large dimensional random matrix. On the basis of it, large dimensional random matrix is disposed, applied with higher dimensional random matrix theory related to the characteristics of abnormal data detection, for judging the existence of abnormal data. If existed, this matrix is used in accordance with Pauta criterion identification to find the abnormal data. At the end of the article, it is verified by analysis examples of its effectiveness and applicability.
随着智能电网和能源互联网的不断发展,现代电力系统逐渐演变为一个汇集大量数据和计算的大型信息系统,这显示了数据挖掘分析技术的适用性和可行性。提出了一种基于大维随机矩阵理论的无功优化大数据建模方法。在此基础上,配置大维随机矩阵,应用高维随机矩阵理论,结合异常数据检测的特点,判断异常数据是否存在。如果存在,则根据paulta准则识别使用该矩阵查找异常数据。文章最后通过实例分析验证了该方法的有效性和适用性。
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引用次数: 11
Power line online fault warning method based on operational reliability and decision tree 基于运行可靠性和决策树的电力线在线故障预警方法
Cheng Tao, Chen Lei, Xu Fei, Dai Yuanhang
In order to achieve the grid line online fault warning, we used operational reliability theory to generate power line fault data, and then use the decision tree method to establish the relationships between pre-fault line data and the fault, and generate the corresponding fault warning rules, simulation results show that the decision tree method can effectively achieve line fault warning, which provides useful information for the operators to guarantee the security of the power system.
为了实现电网线路在线故障预警,利用运行可靠性理论生成电力线故障数据,然后利用决策树方法建立故障前线路数据与故障之间的关系,并生成相应的故障预警规则,仿真结果表明,决策树方法可以有效地实现线路故障预警,为操作人员提供有用的信息,保证电力系统的安全运行。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal configuration of user side integrated energy system based on chance constrained programming 基于机会约束规划的用户侧综合能源系统优化配置
Chenxia Jia, Muke Bai, Chao Zhang, Jing Zhou, Gongbo Liu, Sheng Xu, Wei Tang, Cong Wu, Chenjun Sun
A user side integrated energy system (USIES) can supply energy in accordance with user demand, in order to make full use of terminal energy conditions, improve energy efficiency, and promote consumption of local renewable energy. A bi-level programming model of USIES multi-objective coordinated planning is developed based on the chance constrained programming. Multi-state models of wind turbine (WT), photovoltaic (PV) generation and load are established respectively according to probability density functions. Then a multi-state model of the IES can be proposed. Considering economic, energy influences, environmental protection and other factors, a configuration model of USIES based on bi-level programming is established, including WT, PV, micro gas turbine and gas boiler. Annual costs is minimized in the upper level objective function in order to accomplish configuration of distributed energy sources. The optimal scheduling of micro turbine is considered in the lower level, in which objective functions include the cost of USIES losses. The elitist strategy genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are applied for solving the planning model. A case of USIES planning, which used is in a residential and commercial areas in the North China, verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model and method. The simulation results show that the multi-state model can simplify the difficulty of model calculation. The USIES planning based on the chance constrained programming can adequately consider the uncertainty of USIES. Under a certain confidence level, the optimal investment with the corresponding probability of the confidence level is obtained.
用户侧综合能源系统(USIES)可以根据用户需求提供能源,以充分利用终端能源条件,提高能源效率,促进当地可再生能源的消费。基于机会约束规划,建立了USIES多目标协调规划的双层规划模型。根据概率密度函数分别建立风电、光伏发电和负荷的多状态模型。在此基础上,提出了一种系统的多状态模型。考虑经济、能源、环保等因素,建立了基于双层规划的USIES配置模型,包括WT、PV、微型燃气轮机和燃气锅炉。在上层目标函数中以年成本最小为目标,实现分布式能源的配置。底层考虑了微型水轮机的最优调度问题,目标函数包括USIES损失成本。采用最优策略、遗传算法和粒子群算法求解规划模型。以华北某商住小区的USIES规划为例,验证了该模型和方法的有效性。仿真结果表明,多状态模型可以简化模型计算的难度。基于机会约束规划的USIES规划可以充分考虑USIES的不确定性。在一定置信水平下,得到与该置信水平对应概率的最优投资。
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引用次数: 0
Power system risk assessment method based on dynamic power flow 基于动态潮流的电力系统风险评估方法
Ye Xiaohui, Zhong Wuzhi, Song Xinli, Cheng Lin
Risk assessment theory is paid more and more attention to consider the random characteristics of power system, but traditional method could not consider the operating factors as frequency response of generators and loads, various emergency control measures. In this paper, a dynamic contingency analysis method base on dynamic load flow is proposed considering the above factors. The dynamic contingency analysis is a less time-consuming approach, but could simulate as well the detailed load shedding relay model, and the time-varying reliability model. So the proposed dynamic contingency analysis gives a good tool for cascading failure simulation.
风险评估理论越来越重视考虑电力系统的随机特性,但传统方法不能考虑发电机和负荷的频率响应、各种应急控制措施等运行因素。考虑上述因素,本文提出了一种基于动态潮流的动态偶然性分析方法。动态偶然性分析是一种耗时较短的方法,但可以很好地模拟详细的减载继电器模型和时变可靠性模型。因此,所提出的动态偶然性分析为级联故障仿真提供了良好的工具。
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引用次数: 3
Impacts of transient instability on power system reliability 暂态不稳定对电力系统可靠性的影响
M. Benidris, J. Mitra, C. Singh
This paper addresses the effects of transient instability on power system reliability. Composite system reliability evaluation has been performed based on steady-state estimation of load curtailments. In composite reliability evaluation, after each contingency, faulted components are assumed to be isolated from the rest of the system immediately and the system is assumed to return to a stable state with proper generation rescheduling for minimum load curtailments. In this context, minimum load curtailments are usually performed by solving linear/non-linear programming optimization problems. Although the optimization problem with minimum load curtailment may find a steady-state feasible solution, a stable transition to a post-fault stable equilibrium point is not guaranteed. In this paper, three probabilistic transient stability indices are proposed to assess system robustness against transient contingencies and update the reliability indices. Transient stability direct methods are used in assessing system stability and determining the probabilistic stability indices. This method is applied on the reduced WECC (Western Electricity Coordinating Council) system and the results showed that the effect of transient instability should not be ignored.
本文讨论了暂态不稳定对电力系统可靠性的影响。基于负荷缩减的稳态估计,进行了综合系统可靠性评估。在复合可靠性评估中,在每次事故发生后,假设故障组件与系统的其余部分立即隔离,并假设系统通过适当的发电重调度恢复到稳定状态,以实现最小的负荷削减。在这种情况下,通常通过求解线性/非线性规划优化问题来实现最小负荷削减。虽然最小减载优化问题可以找到稳态可行解,但不能保证稳定过渡到故障后稳定平衡点。本文提出了三个概率暂态稳定指标来评估系统对暂态事件的鲁棒性,并对可靠性指标进行了更新。采用暂态稳定直接法评估系统的稳定性,确定系统的概率稳定性指标。将该方法应用于简化后的西部电力协调委员会(WECC)系统,结果表明暂态失稳的影响不可忽视。
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引用次数: 1
Application of non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion in probabilistic power flow with truncated random variables 非侵入多项式混沌展开在截断随机变量概率潮流中的应用
F. Ni, Phuong H. Nguyen, J.F.G. Cobben, Junjie Tang
In this paper, the authors apply a surrogate model-based method for probabilistic power flow (PPF) in the power system subject to truncated random variables. Due to a growing number of uncertainty sources are being brought into the modern power system, the traditional deterministic power flow analysis lacks its ability to recognize the realistic states of power systems, and thus turns to PPF for help. However, the PPF analysis is still facing several challenges: the computational effort required by the traditional simulation method is prohibitively expensive; and the modeling of uncertainty sources needs the improvement on both distribution type selection and parameter evaluation. The novelty of this work lies in taking advantage of both general polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion and ordinary least squares (OLS) to deal with PPF in presence of the truncated random variables. The performance of the proposed method is verified on the IEEE 30-Bus test system, considering uncertain factors brought by active power at load buses. In different test scenarios, the proposed method shows sound performances at the cost of less computational effort, compared to the traditional approach.
本文采用一种基于代理模型的方法,对随机变量截断的电力系统的概率潮流进行了求解。由于现代电力系统中引入了越来越多的不确定性源,传统的确定性潮流分析缺乏对电力系统现实状态的识别能力,因而转向PPF分析。然而,PPF分析仍然面临着一些挑战:传统模拟方法所需的计算量非常昂贵;不确定性源的建模需要在分布类型选择和参数评估两方面进行改进。本文的新颖之处在于利用一般多项式混沌(gPC)展开和普通最小二乘(OLS)来处理截断随机变量存在下的PPF。在考虑负载母线有功功率带来的不确定因素的IEEE 30-Bus测试系统上验证了该方法的性能。在不同的测试场景下,与传统方法相比,该方法以较少的计算量为代价显示出良好的性能。
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引用次数: 2
Modeling impacts of PM 2.5 concentration on PV power outputs 模拟pm2.5浓度对光伏发电输出的影响
Chi Zhang, Wenyuan Li, Juan Yu, Ruilin Xu
PM2.5 concentration can have significant impacts on solar irradiation and thus on photovoltaic (PV) power output. This paper presents a method to model impacts of PM2.5 concentration on PV power. A non-parametric kernel density estimation is used to fit the probability distribution of PM2.5 concentration. An incremental relation between the increase of PM2.5 concentration and the decrease of solar irradiation is established for each PM2.5 level based on the PM2.5 air quality index. The simulation results using the PM2.5 and solar irradiation data in Beijing verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.
PM2.5浓度会对太阳辐射产生显著影响,从而影响光伏发电输出。本文提出了一种模拟PM2.5浓度对光伏发电影响的方法。采用非参数核密度估计拟合PM2.5浓度的概率分布。基于PM2.5空气质量指数,在每一个PM2.5水平上建立PM2.5浓度增加与太阳辐照减少的增量关系。利用北京地区PM2.5和太阳辐照数据的模拟结果验证了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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