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2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)最新文献

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Wind power accommodation considering the prediction error of wind power 考虑风电预测误差的风电调节
Peng Zhang, Chunyan Li, Qian Zhang
Wind power forecast error has been considered to be the factor that increases the difficulty of power system dispatch, decreases the economy of system operation, and affects the wind power accommodation. A multiple time scales dispatch model of wind power integrated system is built considering the wind power forecast error and demand response. The price-based demand response (PDR) is used in the initial dispatch because of the large day-ahead forecast error. In the day, the price-based demand response is dispatched again to take advantage of its low cost. According to the strong timeliness of the incentive-based demand response (IDR), it is used in real-time dispatch to decrease the influence of wind power forecast error on the system dispatch and wind power accommodation. Study case shows that the multiple time scales optimal dispatch can increase wind power accommodations, save system operating costs, ensure the autonomy of consumers and reduce the impact of demand response.
风电预测误差被认为是增加电力系统调度难度、降低系统运行经济性、影响风电调节的因素。考虑风电预测误差和需求响应,建立了风电综合系统的多时间尺度调度模型。基于价格的需求响应(PDR)由于日前预测误差较大而被用于初始调度。在白天,基于价格的需求响应再次被调度,以利用其低成本的优势。利用基于激励的需求响应(IDR)具有较强的时效性,将其应用于实时调度中,以减小风电预测误差对系统调度和风电调节的影响。研究实例表明,多时间尺度优化调度可以增加风电的可容性,节约系统运行成本,保证用户的自主权,减少需求响应的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A heuristic for the synthesis of credible operating states in the presence of renewable energy sources 可再生能源存在下可靠运行状态综合的一种启发式方法
Edgar Nuño, N. Cutululis
Experience has shown the limitations of deterministic criteria when accommodating the intrinsic uncertainties associated to modern power systems. Hereof, probabilistic risk assessment represent a powerful enhancement in order to ensure the overall power system reliability rather than a worst-case scenario analysis. This paper presents a general-purpose methodology intended to generate plausible operating states. The main focus lies on the generation of correlated random samples using a heuristic of the NORmal-to-Anything (NORTA) method. The proposed methodology was applied to model wind generation in the Danish Western power system, analyzing the effect of the marginal distributions and errors in the correlation matrix definition.
经验表明,在适应与现代电力系统有关的内在不确定性时,确定性标准存在局限性。在这里,概率风险评估代表了一种强大的增强,以确保电力系统的整体可靠性,而不是最坏情况的分析。本文提出了一种通用的方法,旨在产生合理的运行状态。主要重点在于使用启发式的正态对任意(NORTA)方法生成相关随机样本。将所提出的方法应用于丹麦西部电力系统的风力发电模型,分析了边际分布和相关矩阵定义误差对模型的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Reliability evaluation of active distribution systems considering energy storage and real-time electricity pricing 考虑储能和实时电价的主动配电系统可靠性评估
Haodi Li, Lingfeng Wang, Yingmeng Xiang, Jun Tan, Ruosong Xiao, K. Xie, Yun Xia
Due to the increasing integration of renewable resources and the deployment of energy storage units at the power distribution level, conventional deterministic approaches may not be suitable or effective for evaluating the reliability of active distribution networks anymore. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the active distribution system reliability including microgrid and energy storage. The power output of distributed generator (DG) within the microgrid is first calculated based on the approach of generalized capacity outage tables (GCOTs). Then Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is utilized for performing power system reliability evaluation. The results obtained considering different energy storage capacities are compared. Furthermore, real-time pricing (RTP) strategy is considered in optimizing the control strategy of the energy storage device and the corresponding reliability indices are recalculated.
随着可再生能源并网和储能系统在配电网层面的部署,传统的确定性方法已不再适合或有效地评估有功配电网的可靠性。本文提出了一种评估微电网和储能系统的主动配电系统可靠性的新方法。首先基于广义容量中断表的方法计算微电网内分布式发电机的输出功率。然后利用蒙特卡罗仿真(MCS)对电力系统进行可靠性评估。比较了考虑不同储能容量的结果。在优化储能装置控制策略时考虑实时定价策略,并重新计算相应的可靠性指标。
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引用次数: 4
Overhead line weak point mechanical analysis based on Markov chain method 基于马尔可夫链法的架空线路弱点力学分析
A. Mutule, Ervin Grebesh, I. Oleinikova, A. Obushevs
In this work, a concept for overhead power line weak point analysis based on the calculation of minimal clearance to ground is presented. Line temperature should be known before mechanical calculations are performed. For that purpose IEEE 738 Std. was taken. Calculation accuracy was previously verified by authors with real line parameters and described in the paper. To calculate thermal behavior of conductor, several parameters should be known, such as wind speed, wind direction and ambient weather temperature. These data were artificially generated from three weather stations ten years' time series located near to the line. To acquire the data on line, the interpolation geostatistical toolbox was used. Several line weak points were revealed. Line weak point position can be used as an area where monitoring equipment for dynamic line rating should be installed when the transmission system operator has an economical restriction, and it is impossible to have multiple areas for DLR equipment installation.
本文提出了基于最小离地间隙计算的架空电力线弱点分析的概念。在进行机械计算之前,应该知道管道温度。为此,采用了IEEE 738标准。作者用实际的线路参数验证了计算的准确性,并对其进行了描述。为了计算导体的热行为,需要知道几个参数,如风速、风向和环境天气温度。这些数据是由位于该线附近的三个气象站十年时间序列人工生成的。为了在线获取数据,使用插值地质统计工具箱。几个线路的薄弱环节显露出来。在输电系统运营商经济条件有限的情况下,线路薄弱点位置可作为线路动态额定值监控设备的安装区域,不可能有多个区域安装DLR设备。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal coupling of heat and electricity systems: A stochastic hierarchical approach 热电系统的最优耦合:一种随机分层方法
Lesia Mitridati, P. Pinson
The large penetration of renewables in the power system increases the need for flexibility. Flexibility gains and wind curtailment reduction can be achieved through a better coordination with other energy systems, in particular with district heating. Loose interactions between these two systems already exist due to the participation of CHPs in both markets. New market structures must be developed in order to exploit these synergies. Recognizing the above-mentioned challenges this paper proposes a stochastic hierarchical formulation of the heat economic dispatch problem in a system with high penetration of CHPs and wind. The objective of this optimization problem is to minimize the heat production cost, subject to constraints describing day-ahead electricity market clearing scenarios. Uncertainties concerning wind power production, electricity demand and rival participants offers are efficiently modelled using a finite set of scenarios. This model takes advantage of existing market structures and provides a decision-making tool for heat system operators. The proposed model is implemented in a case study and results are discussed to show the benefits and applicability of this approach.
可再生能源在电力系统中的大量渗透增加了对灵活性的需求。通过与其他能源系统,特别是区域供热系统更好地协调,可以提高灵活性和减少弃风。这两个系统之间已经存在松散的相互作用,因为这两个市场都有热电联产企业的参与。必须发展新的市场结构,以便利用这些协同作用。认识到上述挑战,本文提出了高热电联产和风渗透系统的热经济调度问题的随机分层公式。该优化问题的目标是使产热成本最小化,同时受限于描述前一天电力市场出清情景的约束。风能生产、电力需求和竞争对手报价的不确定性可以使用有限的场景集有效地建模。该模型利用了现有的市场结构,为供热系统运营商提供了决策工具。该模型在一个案例研究中得到了实现,并对结果进行了讨论,以显示该方法的优点和适用性。
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引用次数: 32
A spare strategy of circuit breakers considering aging failures 考虑老化故障的断路器备用策略
F. Chen, Yi Dai, Zhouyang Ren, Wenyuan Li
This paper presents a spare strategy of circuit breakers (CBs) considering aging failures based on condition monitoring data. The monitoring data are used to estimate the functional ages of CBs and the aging failure rates of CBs are calculated using the functional ages. The loss-of-load damage costs caused by both repairable and aging failures of CBs are evaluated together with the investment of spares. The number and timing of spare CBs can be determined by comparing the damage cost reductions due to spares with the additional investment costs. The proposed strategy is applied to a substation located in the south China to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基于状态监测数据,提出了一种考虑老化故障的断路器备用策略。利用监测数据估计CBs的功能年龄,并利用功能年龄计算CBs的老化故障率。对可修故障和老化故障引起的断路器的失载损坏成本进行了评估,并对备件的投资进行了分析。通过比较备用cb带来的损坏成本降低与额外投资成本,可以确定备用cb的数量和时间。将该策略应用于中国南方的一个变电站,验证了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
Day-ahead generation schedule model with demand response considering the secure and economic risks of wind power 考虑风电安全和经济风险的需求响应日前发电计划模型
Jian Wang, Zongxiang Lu, Ying Qiao, Guiping Zhu
Wind curtailment is a severe problem in wind power development in China and demand response is considered to be one of the resources that have great potential to promote the utilization of wind power. This paper proposes a new day-ahead generation schedule model with demand response scheme in the background of joint operation of wind farms and high energy consuming loads. Considering the stochastic character of wind power, risk evaluation and corresponding optimization method is applied. The objective for this model is to minimize the secure and economic risks of wind power and the cost of thermal power units comprehensively. Detailed model and evaluation method are shown in this paper. The simulation results illustrate that this model presents better performance in reducing the wind curtailment ratio and operating cost compared with the demand response model without consideration of risks of wind power.
弃风是中国风电发展中的一个严重问题,需求响应被认为是推动风电利用潜力巨大的资源之一。针对风电场和高能耗负荷联合运行的情况,提出了一种新的带需求响应方案的日前发电计划模型。考虑风力发电的随机特性,采用风险评估及相应的优化方法。该模型的目标是使风电的安全和经济风险和火电机组的成本综合最小化。本文给出了详细的模型和评价方法。仿真结果表明,与不考虑风电风险的需求响应模型相比,该模型在降低弃风率和运行成本方面具有更好的性能。
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引用次数: 2
Impact evaluation of the network geometric model on power quality indices using probabilistic techniques 基于概率技术的电网几何模型对电能质量指标的影响评估
M. D. da Rosa, G. Bolacell, I. Costa, D. Calado, D. Issicaba
Distribution Power System performance assessment is usually based on continuity indicators and power quality measurements. Generally, these evaluations are performed using distinct mechanisms, where continuity is assessed by past network performance observations and/or predicted simulation, whereas power quality is evaluated using electronic measurements. In fact, the concepts of reliability and power quality are dissociated, mainly when distribution power system performance is assessed. However, the current diversity of loads and sources, with more sensitivity to voltage variations, requires a wider ranging of power system tools, which consider aspects of both continuity and power quality effects. Aiming for a distribution systems performance approach that considers both reliability and power quality issues into a unique evaluation framework, aspects related to the systems voltage as well as distorting phenomena affecting the voltage waveform need to be modeled. This paper proposes the impact assessment of network geometric model on power quality indices using simulation techniques. The main idea is to include a short-circuit model into a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in order to assess power quality indices through estimates. The proposed methodology is applied to the IEEE test feeder with 34 nodes.
配电系统的性能评估通常基于连续性指标和电能质量测量。通常,这些评估是通过不同的机制进行的,其中连续性是通过过去的网络性能观察和/或预测模拟来评估的,而电能质量是通过电子测量来评估的。事实上,可靠性和电能质量的概念是分离的,主要是在评估配电系统的性能时。然而,负载和电源的电流多样性,对电压变化更敏感,需要更广泛的电力系统工具,考虑连续性和电能质量影响的各个方面。为了使配电系统性能方法将可靠性和电能质量问题纳入一个独特的评估框架,需要对与系统电压相关的方面以及影响电压波形的扭曲现象进行建模。本文提出了利用仿真技术评估电网几何模型对电能质量指标的影响。其主要思想是在时序蒙特卡罗算法中加入一个短路模型,通过估计来评估电能质量指标。将该方法应用于具有34个节点的IEEE测试馈线。
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引用次数: 8
Research on probabilistic reactive power optimization considering the randomness of distribution network 考虑配电网随机性的概率无功优化研究
Liu Keyan, Jia Dongli, He Kaiyuan, Zhao Tingting, Zhao Fengzhan
With the rapid development of intelligent distribution network, the uncertainty of the load and the randomness of distributed generation have brought new challenges to distribution network control operation especial in reactive power optimization. This paper uses probabilistic power flow algorithm based on three-point estimate method to solve the uncertainty caused by power flow calculation in the stochastic models of load and wind power so as to propose a method of information entropy principle to measure the voltage fluctuation. On the basis of this method, a model of probabilistic reactive power optimization considering minimum network loss and voltage fluctuation is built. Taking the IEEE 33 nodes system which contains wind power generation as an example and we draw a conclusion that if we add the minimum voltage entropy to multi-objective reactive power optimization objective function, the probability distribution of node voltage is more centralized than that of single objective reactive power optimization. Thus, to optimize reactive power by means of this model could improve the voltage stability of the system and make the voltage distribution near a certain value that within the scope of control in large probability. The proposed multi-objective probabilistic reactive power optimization model is suitable for the actual distribution network reactive voltage control with random properties.
随着智能配电网的快速发展,负荷的不确定性和分布式发电的随机性给配电网控制运行特别是无功优化带来了新的挑战。本文采用基于三点估计法的概率潮流算法,解决了负荷和风电随机模型中潮流计算带来的不确定性,提出了一种基于信息熵原理的电压波动测量方法。在此基础上,建立了考虑网络损耗和电压波动最小的概率无功优化模型。以包含风力发电的IEEE 33节点系统为例,得出在多目标无功优化目标函数中加入最小电压熵,节点电压的概率分布比单目标无功优化的概率分布更集中的结论。因此,利用该模型对无功功率进行优化,可以提高系统的电压稳定性,使电压分布大概率地接近控制范围内的某一值。所提出的多目标概率无功优化模型适用于实际配电网无功电压的随机控制。
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引用次数: 1
Reliability evaluation for distribution systems considering flexible loads utilizing time-sequential simulation techniques 基于时序仿真技术的柔性负荷配电系统可靠性评估
Heping Jia, Yi Ding, Yonghua Song, Weidong Liu, Lijun Zhang, Yikai Sun
With the development of information and communication technologies, flexible loads have become more and more popular to participate in the two-way interaction between power generation and consumption. However, the growing proportion of flexible loads has made the reliability of smart grids different from that of traditional power systems. In this paper, time-varying load model including flexible loads has been represented by developed Markov process model. Load curtailment and shifting have been considered in the developed Markov model for flexible loads. Moreover, time-sequential simulation procedures of reliability evaluation for distribution systems considering flexible loads have been developed. The proposed techniques have been validated to the modified IEEE RBTS.
随着信息通信技术的发展,柔性负荷参与发电与用电的双向互动越来越受欢迎。然而,随着柔性负荷比例的不断增加,智能电网的可靠性与传统电力系统的可靠性有了很大的不同。本文将含柔性负荷的时变负荷模型用马尔可夫过程模型表示。所建立的马尔可夫模型考虑了柔性负荷的减载和移载。此外,还开发了考虑柔性负荷的配电系统可靠性评估的时序仿真程序。所提出的技术已在改进的IEEE RBTS上得到验证。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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