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2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)最新文献

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Day-ahead generation schedule model with demand response considering the secure and economic risks of wind power 考虑风电安全和经济风险的需求响应日前发电计划模型
Jian Wang, Zongxiang Lu, Ying Qiao, Guiping Zhu
Wind curtailment is a severe problem in wind power development in China and demand response is considered to be one of the resources that have great potential to promote the utilization of wind power. This paper proposes a new day-ahead generation schedule model with demand response scheme in the background of joint operation of wind farms and high energy consuming loads. Considering the stochastic character of wind power, risk evaluation and corresponding optimization method is applied. The objective for this model is to minimize the secure and economic risks of wind power and the cost of thermal power units comprehensively. Detailed model and evaluation method are shown in this paper. The simulation results illustrate that this model presents better performance in reducing the wind curtailment ratio and operating cost compared with the demand response model without consideration of risks of wind power.
弃风是中国风电发展中的一个严重问题,需求响应被认为是推动风电利用潜力巨大的资源之一。针对风电场和高能耗负荷联合运行的情况,提出了一种新的带需求响应方案的日前发电计划模型。考虑风力发电的随机特性,采用风险评估及相应的优化方法。该模型的目标是使风电的安全和经济风险和火电机组的成本综合最小化。本文给出了详细的模型和评价方法。仿真结果表明,与不考虑风电风险的需求响应模型相比,该模型在降低弃风率和运行成本方面具有更好的性能。
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引用次数: 2
Wind power accommodation considering the prediction error of wind power 考虑风电预测误差的风电调节
Peng Zhang, Chunyan Li, Qian Zhang
Wind power forecast error has been considered to be the factor that increases the difficulty of power system dispatch, decreases the economy of system operation, and affects the wind power accommodation. A multiple time scales dispatch model of wind power integrated system is built considering the wind power forecast error and demand response. The price-based demand response (PDR) is used in the initial dispatch because of the large day-ahead forecast error. In the day, the price-based demand response is dispatched again to take advantage of its low cost. According to the strong timeliness of the incentive-based demand response (IDR), it is used in real-time dispatch to decrease the influence of wind power forecast error on the system dispatch and wind power accommodation. Study case shows that the multiple time scales optimal dispatch can increase wind power accommodations, save system operating costs, ensure the autonomy of consumers and reduce the impact of demand response.
风电预测误差被认为是增加电力系统调度难度、降低系统运行经济性、影响风电调节的因素。考虑风电预测误差和需求响应,建立了风电综合系统的多时间尺度调度模型。基于价格的需求响应(PDR)由于日前预测误差较大而被用于初始调度。在白天,基于价格的需求响应再次被调度,以利用其低成本的优势。利用基于激励的需求响应(IDR)具有较强的时效性,将其应用于实时调度中,以减小风电预测误差对系统调度和风电调节的影响。研究实例表明,多时间尺度优化调度可以增加风电的可容性,节约系统运行成本,保证用户的自主权,减少需求响应的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Reactive power adequacy assessment of composite power system based on interior point method and genetic algorithm 基于内点法和遗传算法的复合电力系统无功充分性评估
Fan Chen, Haitao Liu, Jun Li, Zheng Huang
The solution of optimal load curtailment for the selected system contingency states is the most important step for the reliability analysis of composite power system. The linear reactive remedial model considering the bus voltage and reactive power constrains was formulated first based on the decoupled AC load flow model. Aiming at dealing with the discrete control variables in the reactive power optimal problem, a hybrid optimal method combined with interior point method and Genetic Algorithm (GA) method is proposed. Some reliability indices are defined to represent the reactive power adequacy similar to the indices used for representing active power adequacy in this paper. Case studies have been carried out on the modified IEEE RTS to validate the proposed optimal algorithm and investigate the effect of discreteness of shunt compensation capacity and bus voltage on system reliability indices.
系统应急状态下的最优减载问题的求解是复合电力系统可靠性分析的重要环节。在解耦交流潮流模型的基础上,首先建立了考虑母线电压和无功约束的线性无功补救模型。针对无功优化问题中控制变量离散的问题,提出了一种内点法和遗传算法相结合的混合优化方法。本文定义了一些可靠性指标来表示无功充分性,类似于表示有功充分性的指标。以改进后的IEEE RTS为例,验证了所提出的优化算法,并研究了并联补偿容量和母线电压的离散性对系统可靠性指标的影响。
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引用次数: 3
Impact evaluation of the network geometric model on power quality indices using probabilistic techniques 基于概率技术的电网几何模型对电能质量指标的影响评估
M. D. da Rosa, G. Bolacell, I. Costa, D. Calado, D. Issicaba
Distribution Power System performance assessment is usually based on continuity indicators and power quality measurements. Generally, these evaluations are performed using distinct mechanisms, where continuity is assessed by past network performance observations and/or predicted simulation, whereas power quality is evaluated using electronic measurements. In fact, the concepts of reliability and power quality are dissociated, mainly when distribution power system performance is assessed. However, the current diversity of loads and sources, with more sensitivity to voltage variations, requires a wider ranging of power system tools, which consider aspects of both continuity and power quality effects. Aiming for a distribution systems performance approach that considers both reliability and power quality issues into a unique evaluation framework, aspects related to the systems voltage as well as distorting phenomena affecting the voltage waveform need to be modeled. This paper proposes the impact assessment of network geometric model on power quality indices using simulation techniques. The main idea is to include a short-circuit model into a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in order to assess power quality indices through estimates. The proposed methodology is applied to the IEEE test feeder with 34 nodes.
配电系统的性能评估通常基于连续性指标和电能质量测量。通常,这些评估是通过不同的机制进行的,其中连续性是通过过去的网络性能观察和/或预测模拟来评估的,而电能质量是通过电子测量来评估的。事实上,可靠性和电能质量的概念是分离的,主要是在评估配电系统的性能时。然而,负载和电源的电流多样性,对电压变化更敏感,需要更广泛的电力系统工具,考虑连续性和电能质量影响的各个方面。为了使配电系统性能方法将可靠性和电能质量问题纳入一个独特的评估框架,需要对与系统电压相关的方面以及影响电压波形的扭曲现象进行建模。本文提出了利用仿真技术评估电网几何模型对电能质量指标的影响。其主要思想是在时序蒙特卡罗算法中加入一个短路模型,通过估计来评估电能质量指标。将该方法应用于具有34个节点的IEEE测试馈线。
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引用次数: 8
A spare strategy of circuit breakers considering aging failures 考虑老化故障的断路器备用策略
F. Chen, Yi Dai, Zhouyang Ren, Wenyuan Li
This paper presents a spare strategy of circuit breakers (CBs) considering aging failures based on condition monitoring data. The monitoring data are used to estimate the functional ages of CBs and the aging failure rates of CBs are calculated using the functional ages. The loss-of-load damage costs caused by both repairable and aging failures of CBs are evaluated together with the investment of spares. The number and timing of spare CBs can be determined by comparing the damage cost reductions due to spares with the additional investment costs. The proposed strategy is applied to a substation located in the south China to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基于状态监测数据,提出了一种考虑老化故障的断路器备用策略。利用监测数据估计CBs的功能年龄,并利用功能年龄计算CBs的老化故障率。对可修故障和老化故障引起的断路器的失载损坏成本进行了评估,并对备件的投资进行了分析。通过比较备用cb带来的损坏成本降低与额外投资成本,可以确定备用cb的数量和时间。将该策略应用于中国南方的一个变电站,验证了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
Identification of critical line-generation combinations for hypothesized joint line-generation attacks 识别假设的关节线生成攻击的关键线生成组合
Ming Wang, Yingmeng Xiang, Lingfeng Wang, Jie Jiang, Ruosong Xiao, K. Xie
The increasing load demand is pushing power system to operate near its limit, making it more vulnerable to various disturbances and attacks, especially those that might initiate cascading failures. In this study, the joint line-generation attack is introduced which assumes that the lines and generators can be tripped by malicious attacks simultaneously, and it is a natural extension of the previous node-only or line-only attacks. The joint line-generation attack strategy is explored based on a search space reduction algorithm. The simulation is conducted based on several representative test systems. The performance of the proposed attack strategy is compared with other attack strategies and the computational burden is analyzed. It is demonstrated that the proposed attack strategy is effective and computationally efficient. This work can provide some meaningful insight on how to prevent power system cascading failures initiated by joint attacks.
不断增长的负荷需求正在推动电力系统接近其极限,使其更容易受到各种干扰和攻击,特别是那些可能引发级联故障的干扰和攻击。本文提出了一种联合生成线路的攻击方法,该方法假定线路和生成器可以同时被恶意攻击触发,是对以往的仅节点攻击或仅线路攻击的自然扩展。研究了基于搜索空间约简算法的联合线生成攻击策略。基于几个有代表性的测试系统进行了仿真。将所提出的攻击策略与其他攻击策略的性能进行了比较,并分析了计算量。实验结果表明,所提出的攻击策略是有效的,计算效率高。该研究为如何防止联合攻击引发的电力系统级联故障提供了一些有意义的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Urban distribution grid line outage identification 城市配电网线路停电识别
Y. Liao, Yang Weng, Chin-Woo Tan, R. Rajagopal
The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in urban distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to complex uncertainties. With the large-scale penetration of DERs, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers making phone calls and smart meters' “last gasp” signals, will have limited performance because 1) the renewable generators can supply powers after line outages, and 2) many urban grids are mesh and line outages do not affect power supply. To address these drawbacks, we propose a new data-driven outage monitoring approach based on the stochastic time series analysis with the newly available smart meter data utilized. Specifically, based on the power flow analysis, we prove that the statistical dependency of time-series voltage measurements has significant changes after line outages. Hence, we use the optimal change point detection theory to detect and localize line outages. As the existing change point detection methods require the post-outage voltage distribution, which is unknown in power systems, we propose a maximum likelihood method to learn the distribution parameters from the historical data. The proposed outage detection using estimated parameters also achieves the optimal performance. Simulation results show highly accurate outage identification in IEEE standard distribution test systems with and without DERs using real smart meter data.
随着城市配电网中分布式能源的日益集成,由于复杂的不确定性,引发了各种可靠性问题。随着DERs的大规模普及,传统的依靠用户打电话和智能电表“最后一次呼吸”信号的停电检测方法的性能将受到限制,因为1)可再生能源发电机可以在线路中断后供电,2)许多城市电网是网状的,线路中断不影响供电。为了解决这些缺点,我们提出了一种新的数据驱动的停电监测方法,该方法基于随机时间序列分析,利用了最新可用的智能电表数据。具体而言,基于潮流分析,我们证明了时间序列电压测量的统计依赖性在线路中断后发生了显著变化。因此,我们使用最优变化点检测理论来检测和定位线路中断。由于现有的变化点检测方法需要获取电力系统中未知的停电后电压分布,我们提出了一种从历史数据中学习电压分布参数的极大似然方法。所提出的使用估计参数的停机检测也达到了最优性能。仿真结果表明,在IEEE标准配电测试系统中,使用真实的智能电表数据,对有和没有DERs的配电测试系统进行了高精度的停电识别。
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引用次数: 13
A novel method for energy storage sizing based on time and frequency domain analysis 一种基于时频域分析的储能分级新方法
Liting Tian, Jianbo Guo, Lin Cheng
Energy storage is used to balance the variant power for the stability of the grid. It is significant to understand the fluctuation characteristic of renewable energy (RE) generation and the requirements of energy storage when large-scale RE is integrated in the grid. In the paper, a novel method based on time and frequency domain analysis is proposed for energy storage system (ESS) sizing, including both power sizing and energy sizing. According to the relationship between charge/discharge power and stored energy, the sizing model is established based on autocorrelation function and power spectral density (PSD) of the stochastic cycling process. The time and spectral characteristic of RE generation is analyzed based on the historical generation data of a wind farm and a PV station in the Northwest region of China. The size of energy storage is determined by the time and frequency domain method respectively. Comparing with the time domain method, it is showed that the frequency domain method is sufficient for energy storage sizing with enough accuracy and a much easier calculation process at the same time.
为了保证电网的稳定,储能是平衡变功率的重要手段。大规模可再生能源并网时,了解可再生能源发电的波动特性和储能需求具有重要意义。本文提出了一种基于时频域分析的储能系统分级方法,包括功率分级和能量分级。根据充放电功率与储能之间的关系,基于随机循环过程的自相关函数和功率谱密度(PSD)建立了分级模型。利用西北地区某风电场和某光伏电站的历史发电数据,分析了可再生能源发电的时间和频谱特征。分别用时域和频域方法确定储能的大小。通过与时域方法的比较,表明频域方法不仅具有足够的精度,而且计算过程简单。
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引用次数: 2
Uncertainty quantification in power system reliability using a Bayesian framework 基于贝叶斯框架的电力系统可靠性不确定性量化
Meng Xu, C. Dent, Amy L. Wilson
Long-term generation investment (LTGI) models have been widely used as a decision-making tool of design of energy policy. Adequate LTGI models with detailed modelling of operations are often computationally intensive. Uncertainty involved in these models poses a great challenge to the uncertainty quantification in power system reliability. This paper presents a Bayesian framework for addressing this challenge systematically. The use of Bayesian techniques enables an efficient model calibration and quantitative study on the robustness of different market designs. In the case study on the future UK power system, the robustness index estimated by the calibrated model is obtained through uncertainty analysis of loss-of-load expectation.
长期发电投资(LTGI)模型作为能源政策设计的决策工具已得到广泛应用。具有详细操作建模的适当的LTGI模型通常是计算密集型的。这些模型中的不确定性对电力系统可靠性的不确定性量化提出了很大的挑战。本文提出了一个贝叶斯框架来系统地解决这一挑战。贝叶斯技术的使用使得对不同市场设计的稳健性进行有效的模型校准和定量研究成为可能。以未来英国电力系统为例,通过对失载期望的不确定性分析,得到校正后模型估计的鲁棒性指标。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability evaluation for distribution systems considering flexible loads utilizing time-sequential simulation techniques 基于时序仿真技术的柔性负荷配电系统可靠性评估
Heping Jia, Yi Ding, Yonghua Song, Weidong Liu, Lijun Zhang, Yikai Sun
With the development of information and communication technologies, flexible loads have become more and more popular to participate in the two-way interaction between power generation and consumption. However, the growing proportion of flexible loads has made the reliability of smart grids different from that of traditional power systems. In this paper, time-varying load model including flexible loads has been represented by developed Markov process model. Load curtailment and shifting have been considered in the developed Markov model for flexible loads. Moreover, time-sequential simulation procedures of reliability evaluation for distribution systems considering flexible loads have been developed. The proposed techniques have been validated to the modified IEEE RBTS.
随着信息通信技术的发展,柔性负荷参与发电与用电的双向互动越来越受欢迎。然而,随着柔性负荷比例的不断增加,智能电网的可靠性与传统电力系统的可靠性有了很大的不同。本文将含柔性负荷的时变负荷模型用马尔可夫过程模型表示。所建立的马尔可夫模型考虑了柔性负荷的减载和移载。此外,还开发了考虑柔性负荷的配电系统可靠性评估的时序仿真程序。所提出的技术已在改进的IEEE RBTS上得到验证。
{"title":"Reliability evaluation for distribution systems considering flexible loads utilizing time-sequential simulation techniques","authors":"Heping Jia, Yi Ding, Yonghua Song, Weidong Liu, Lijun Zhang, Yikai Sun","doi":"10.1109/PMAPS.2016.7764152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS.2016.7764152","url":null,"abstract":"With the development of information and communication technologies, flexible loads have become more and more popular to participate in the two-way interaction between power generation and consumption. However, the growing proportion of flexible loads has made the reliability of smart grids different from that of traditional power systems. In this paper, time-varying load model including flexible loads has been represented by developed Markov process model. Load curtailment and shifting have been considered in the developed Markov model for flexible loads. Moreover, time-sequential simulation procedures of reliability evaluation for distribution systems considering flexible loads have been developed. The proposed techniques have been validated to the modified IEEE RBTS.","PeriodicalId":265474,"journal":{"name":"2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122579547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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