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Sequential Choice Bandits: Learning with Marketing Fatigue 顺序选择的强盗:学习营销疲劳
Pub Date : 2019-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3355211
Junyu Cao, Wei Sun, Z. Shen
Motivated by the observation that overexposure to unwanted marketing activities can lead to customer dissatisfaction, we consider a setting where a platform offers a sequence of messages to its users and is penalized when users abandon the platform due to marketing fatigue. We propose a novel sequential choice model to capture multiple interactions taking place between the platform and its users: upon receiving a message, a user decides on whether to accept or reject the message. If she chooses to reject, she would then decide to either receive the next message in the sequence or abandon the platform. Based on user feedback, the platform dynamically learns users' abandonment distribution and the relevance of the recommended content. With a goal to maximize the cumulative payoff over a horizon of length T, the platform dynamically adjusts the sequence of messages and the order in which the messages are shown to a user. We refer to this online learning task as the sequential choice bandit (SC-Bandit) problem. For the offline combinatorial optimization problem, we show a polynomial-time algorithm. For the online problem, we consider two variants, depending on whether contexts are included, and propose algorithms that balance exploration and exploitation. Lastly, we evaluate the performance of our algorithms with both synthetic and real-world datasets.
由于观察到过度暴露于不必要的营销活动可能导致客户不满,我们考虑了一个平台向用户提供一系列消息的设置,当用户由于营销疲劳而放弃该平台时将受到惩罚。我们提出了一种新颖的顺序选择模型来捕获发生在平台及其用户之间的多个交互:在收到消息后,用户决定是否接受或拒绝消息。如果她选择拒绝,那么她将决定要么接收序列中的下一条消息,要么放弃平台。基于用户反馈,平台动态学习用户的放弃分布和推荐内容的相关性。为了使长度为T的视界内的累积收益最大化,平台动态地调整消息的序列和向用户显示消息的顺序。我们将这种在线学习任务称为顺序选择盗匪(sc -盗匪)问题。对于离线组合优化问题,我们给出了一个多项式时间算法。对于在线问题,我们考虑了两种变体,这取决于是否包含上下文,并提出了平衡探索和利用的算法。最后,我们用合成数据集和真实数据集评估了算法的性能。
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引用次数: 14
On the Optimal Design of a Bipartite Matching Queueing System 二部匹配排队系统的优化设计
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3345302
Philipp Afèche, René Caldentey, Varun Gupta
Designing Fair and Efficient Matching Service Systems
设计公平高效的配对服务体系
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引用次数: 20
Enabling Collaborative Response to IT Service Disruptions Under Risk Aversion 在风险规避下实现对IT服务中断的协同响应
Pub Date : 2019-02-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3332323
M. Jansen, F. Erhun, Nektarios Oraiopoulos, D. Ralph
Responding to an information technology (IT) system failure often requires a collaborative approach in which both the client and the vendor need to invest in response capacity. By investing more in response capacity, the client might make the vendor's response capacity more effective in the system restoration stage. Yet, in doing so, the client also encourages free-riding by the vendor. To understand how a client should balance the need to support the vendor while setting the right incentives for the vendor to invest, we develop a model that combines the key characteristics of value co-creation (i.e., complementarity between the firms' investments in response capacity) with standard maintenance contract practices (i.e., penalty-based contracts that penalize the vendor for system downtime). We study the value of observability by characterizing the difference in the client's expected utility between when her investment is observable and non-observable by the vendor in collaborative environments. Since exposure to increased financial risks is a critical issue for the vendors with performance-based contracts, we consider the impact of risk attitudes of the firms (i.e., vendor risk aversion (VRA) and client risk aversion (CRA)) on the investments in the collaborative response process. We show that the value of observability is decreasing in VRA but increasing in CRA. Secondly, we find that the effect of risk aversion on the average system downtime is diametrically opposite depending on whether or not the client's investment is observable. Finally, the effectiveness of the performance-based contracts decreases with VRA but is more robust to CRA.
响应信息技术(IT)系统故障通常需要一种协作方法,在这种方法中,客户和供应商都需要在响应能力上进行投资。通过在响应能力上投入更多,客户可以使供应商的响应能力在系统恢复阶段更有效。然而,这样做,客户也鼓励了供应商搭便车。为了理解客户应该如何平衡支持供应商的需求,同时为供应商设置正确的投资激励,我们开发了一个模型,该模型结合了价值共同创造的关键特征(即,公司在响应能力方面的投资之间的互补性)和标准维护合同实践(即,基于惩罚的合同,惩罚供应商的系统停机时间)。我们通过描述在协作环境中,当客户的投资是可观察的和供应商不可观察的时,客户期望效用的差异来研究可观察性的价值。由于财务风险的增加对具有绩效合同的供应商来说是一个关键问题,我们考虑了公司的风险态度(即供应商风险厌恶(VRA)和客户风险厌恶(CRA))对协同响应过程中投资的影响。结果表明,可观测性值在VRA中呈下降趋势,而在CRA中呈上升趋势。其次,我们发现风险厌恶对系统平均停机时间的影响与客户的投资是否可观察到截然相反。最后,基于绩效的合同的有效性随着VRA的降低而降低,但对CRA的鲁棒性更强。
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引用次数: 0
The Proportional Fee, Transaction Fee and Membership Fee 比例费、交易费和会员费
Pub Date : 2019-01-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3320939
Linfeng Chen
There are in general three types of fees used by platforms: the fixed membership fee, transaction fee and proportional fee. In real-life, all three fees are used by different platforms. Often, the fee charged by the market maker is a combination of the fixed, transaction and proportional fees. We try to offer a rationale for the usage of these fee structures. Compared with the transaction fee, the profit for the platform is higher under the proportional fee. If the consumption value is high enough, then the profit under the membership fee is the lowest. If the value is low enough, then the profit under the membership fee is the highest. If the value is in the middle, then the profit under the membership fee is in the middle as well. However, when we allow free entry of merchants, results are different. The profit of the card network could be lower under the proportional fee than the transaction fee with free entry of merchants. Equilibrium under the proportional fee and the membership fee is the same. Consumer surplus is lower under the transaction fee than the proportional fee and the membership fee. But social welfare could be higher under the transaction fee. We also consider regulation of the fee structure and the optimal fee.
平台使用的费用一般有三种:固定会员费、交易费和比例费。在现实生活中,这三种收费都被不同的平台使用。通常,做市商收取的费用是固定费用、交易费用和比例费用的组合。我们试图为这些收费结构的使用提供一个基本原理。与交易费相比,在比例收费下,平台的利润更高。如果消费价值足够高,那么会员费下的利润是最低的。如果价值足够低,那么会费下的利润是最高的。如果价值处于中间,那么会员费下的利润也处于中间。但是,当我们允许商家免费进入时,结果就不一样了。在按比例收费的情况下,信用卡网络的利润可能低于商家免费进入的交易费用。均衡下的比例费和会员费是一样的。交易费下的消费者剩余低于比例费和会员费。但在交易费下,社会福利可能会更高。我们还考虑了收费结构的调整和最优收费。
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引用次数: 1
Social and Monopoly Optimization in Observable Queues 可观察队列中的社会与垄断优化
Pub Date : 2019-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3290251
Refael Hassin, Ran I. Snitkovsky
Standard economic theory suggests that monopolies result in outputs lower and prices higher than socially desirable. In service systems, customers are often reluctant to join overly crowded systems because their service valuation decreases with system congestion. Thus a high service price is associated with better service through low congestion levels, that is, low system output. But can a monopolist profit more by providing lots of customers with poor service for a very low price? In our work, we introduce a unified approach, relying on the concept of observable queues, for studying the phenomena of monopoly overpricing in service systems. We explain why, in most observable queue models, the monopolist tends to underexploit capacity by overcharging its service. Yet we discuss cases in which the monopolist may prefer to attract demand by charging less than the socially optimal price.
标准经济学理论认为,垄断导致产出低于社会期望,价格高于社会期望。在服务系统中,客户通常不愿意加入过度拥挤的系统,因为他们的服务价值随着系统拥塞而降低。因此,通过低拥塞水平(即低系统输出),高服务价格与更好的服务相关联。但是,垄断者能否通过以极低的价格向大量客户提供糟糕的服务而获得更多利润呢?在我们的工作中,我们引入了一种统一的方法,依靠可观察队列的概念来研究服务系统中的垄断超定价现象。我们解释了为什么在大多数可观察队列模型中,垄断者倾向于通过对其服务收取过高的费用来充分利用其能力。然而,我们讨论的情况是,垄断者可能更愿意通过收取低于社会最优价格的价格来吸引需求。
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引用次数: 11
Pseudo-Marginal Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with Efficient Importance Sampling 具有有效重要抽样的伪边际哈密顿蒙特卡罗
Pub Date : 2018-12-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3304077
Kjartan Kloster Osmundsen, T. S. Kleppe, R. Liesenfeld
The joint posterior of latent variables and parameters in Bayesian hierarchical models often has a strong nonlinear dependence structure, thus making it a challenging target for standard Markov-chain Monte-Carlo methods. Pseudo-marginal methods aim at effectively exploring such target distributions, by marginalizing the latent variables using Monte-Carlo integration and directly targeting the marginal posterior of the parameters. We follow this approach and propose a generic pseudo-marginal algorithm for efficiently simulating from the posterior of the parameters. It combines efficient importance sampling, for accurately marginalizing the latent variables, with the recently developed pseudo-marginal Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach. We illustrate our algorithm in applications to dynamic state space models, where it shows a very high simulation efficiency even in challenging scenarios with complex dependence structures.
贝叶斯层次模型中潜变量和参数的联合后验往往具有很强的非线性依赖结构,这使得它成为标准马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法的一个挑战目标。伪边际方法通过蒙特卡罗积分对潜在变量进行边际化,直接针对参数的边际后验,从而有效地探索这些目标分布。我们遵循这种方法,并提出了一种通用的伪边缘算法,用于有效地从参数的后验进行模拟。它结合了有效的重要性抽样,以准确地边缘化潜在变量,与最近发展的伪边际哈密顿蒙特卡罗方法。我们在动态状态空间模型的应用中说明了我们的算法,即使在具有复杂依赖结构的具有挑战性的场景中,它也显示出非常高的仿真效率。
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引用次数: 1
The Value of Personalized Pricing 个性化定价的价值
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3127719
Adam N. Elmachtoub, Vishal Gupta, Michael L. Hamilton
Increased availability of high-quality customer information has fueled interest in personalized pricing strategies, that is, strategies that predict an individual customer’s valuation for a product and then offer a price tailored to that customer. Although the appeal of personalized pricing is clear, it may also incur large costs in the forms of market research, investment in information technology and analytics expertise, and branding risks. In light of these trade-offs, our work studies the value of personalized pricing strategies over a simple single-price strategy. We first provide closed-form lower and upper bounds on the ratio between the profits of an idealized personalized pricing strategy (first-degree price discrimination) and a single-price strategy. Our bounds depend on simple statistics of the valuation distribution and shed light on the types of markets for which personalized pricing has little or significant potential value. Second, we consider a feature-based pricing model where customer valuations can be estimated from observed features. We show how to transform our aforementioned bounds into lower and upper bounds on the value of feature-based pricing over single pricing depending on the degree to which the features are informative for the valuation. Finally, we demonstrate how to obtain sharper bounds by incorporating additional information about the valuation distribution (moments or shape constraints) by solving tractable linear optimization problems. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, revenue management and market analytics.
高质量客户信息的增加激发了人们对个性化定价策略的兴趣,即预测单个客户对产品的评估,然后为该客户提供量身定制的价格的策略。虽然个性化定价的吸引力是显而易见的,但它也可能在市场研究、信息技术和分析专业知识投资以及品牌风险方面产生巨大成本。鉴于这些权衡,我们的工作研究了个性化定价策略相对于简单的单一价格策略的价值。我们首先提供了理想化个性化定价策略(一级价格歧视)和单一价格策略利润之比的封闭式下界和上界。我们的界限依赖于估值分布的简单统计数据,并揭示了个性化定价具有很少或显著潜在价值的市场类型。其次,我们考虑基于特征的定价模型,其中客户估值可以从观察到的特征估计。我们展示了如何将上述界限转换为基于特征的定价价值的下限和上限,而不是单一定价,这取决于特征对估值的信息量。最后,我们演示了如何通过解决可处理的线性优化问题,通过合并有关估值分布(矩或形状约束)的附加信息来获得更清晰的边界。本文被收益管理和市场分析的David Simchi-Levi接受。
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引用次数: 61
Online Resource Allocation Under Partially Predictable Demand 部分可预测需求下的在线资源分配
Pub Date : 2018-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3252231
Dawsen Hwang, Patrick Jaillet, V. Manshadi
Real-Time Resource Allocation: Beyond Stochastic Demand Modeling
实时资源分配:超越随机需求模型
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引用次数: 15
Multi-Location Assortment Optimization Under Capacity Constraints 容量约束下的多地点组合优化
Pub Date : 2018-09-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3249175
Başak Bebitoğlu, Alper Şen, Philip M. Kaminsky
We study the assortment optimization problem in an online setting where a retailer uses multiple distribution centers to fulfill customer orders. Due to space, handling or other constraints, each distribution center can carry up to a pre-specified number of products. It is assumed that each distribution center is primarily responsible for a geographical region whose customers' choice is governed by a separate multinomial logit model. A distribution center can satisfy the demand from other regions, but this incurs an additional shipping cost for the retailer. The problem for the retailer is to determine which products to carry in each of its distribution centers and which products to offer for sale in each region so as to maximize its expected profit (revenue minus the shipping costs). We first show that the problem is NP-complete. We develop a conic quadratic mixed integer programming formulation and suggest a family of valid inequalities to strengthen this formulation. Numerical experiments show that our conic approach, combined with valid inequalities over-perform the mixed integer linear programming formulation and enables us to solve moderately sized instances optimally. We also study the effect of various factors such as the strength of the outside option, capacity constraint and shipping cost on company's profitability and assortment selection. Finally, we study the effect of not allowing cross-shipments or not considering them in assortment decisions and show that these may lead to substantial losses for an online retailer.
研究了在线环境下零售商使用多个配送中心来完成客户订单的分类优化问题。由于空间、搬运或其他限制,每个配送中心最多只能携带预定数量的产品。假设每个配送中心主要负责一个地理区域,其客户的选择由一个单独的多项逻辑模型控制。配送中心可以满足其他地区的需求,但这会给零售商带来额外的运输成本。零售商的问题是确定在每个配送中心携带哪些产品,以及在每个地区销售哪些产品,以最大化其预期利润(收入减去运输成本)。我们首先证明这个问题是np完全的。我们建立了一个二次混合整数规划公式,并提出了一组有效的不等式来加强这个公式。数值实验表明,我们的方法结合有效不等式,优于混合整数线性规划公式,使我们能够最优地解决中等规模的实例。研究了外部选择强度、运力约束和运输成本等因素对企业盈利能力和品种选择的影响。最后,我们研究了不允许交叉运输或在分类决策中不考虑它们的影响,并表明这些可能导致在线零售商的重大损失。
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引用次数: 4
Impact of Network Structure on New Service Pricing 网络结构对新服务定价的影响
Pub Date : 2018-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3236225
Saed Alizamir, Ningyuan Chen, Sang‐Hyun Kim, V. Manshadi
We analyze a firm’s optimal pricing of a new service when consumers interact in a network and impose positive externality on one another. The firm initially provides its service for free, leveraging network externality to promote rapid service consumption growth. The firm raises the price and starts earning revenue only when a sufficient level of consumer interactions is established. Incorporating the local network effects in a non-stationary dynamic model, we study the impact of network structure on the firm’s revenue and optimal pricing decision. We find that the firm delays the timing of service monetization when it faces a more strongly connected network, despite the fact that such a network allows the firm to monetize the service sooner by resulting in faster consumption growth. We also find that the firm benefits from network imbalance, i.e., the firm prefers a network of consumers with varying degrees of connections to that with similar degrees of connections. We also study the value of knowing the network structure and discuss how such knowledge impacts the firm’s profitability. Our analyses rely on the techniques from algebraic graph theory which enable us to solve the firm’s high-dimensional dynamic pricing problem by relating it to the network’s spectral characteristics.
我们分析了当消费者在网络中相互作用并对彼此施加正外部性时,企业对一项新服务的最优定价。该公司最初免费提供服务,利用网络外部性促进服务消费的快速增长。只有在建立了足够的消费者互动水平后,公司才会提高价格并开始赚取收入。在非平稳动态模型中引入局部网络效应,研究了网络结构对企业收益和最优定价决策的影响。我们发现,当企业面对一个连接更强的网络时,它会推迟服务货币化的时间,尽管这样的网络可以通过更快的消费增长使企业更快地将服务货币化。我们还发现,企业受益于网络不平衡,即企业更喜欢连接程度不同的消费者网络,而不是连接程度相似的消费者网络。我们还研究了了解网络结构的价值,并讨论了这些知识如何影响公司的盈利能力。我们的分析依赖于代数图论的技术,它使我们能够通过将公司的高维动态定价问题与网络的频谱特征联系起来来解决该问题。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Operations Research eJournal
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