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브렉시트 이후 EU 체제의 전망과 정책시사점 (Post-Brexit EU System: Forecast and Policy Implications) (Post-Brexit EU System: Forecast and Policy Implications)
Pub Date : 2017-12-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3147531
Dong Hee Joe, Cheol-won Lee, Tae-Hyun Oh, Hyun Jean Lee, You-Jin Lim
The UK's decision to leave the EU (European Union) has put the Union in an unprecedented crisis. The exit per se of such a large member state in both economic and population size is causing turmoil, and the accumulated discontent towards the current system of the EU during the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and refugee crisis has come to the fore due to Brexit. Backed by this discontent, political forces arguing for their own countries' exit from the Union have also risen in other member states, and heads of governments of other major member states and EU institutions are rushing to propose reforms to the current system. The deepening and extending of the European integration since the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community for peace and prosperity in Europe right after the World War Ⅱ is put on break, and the uncertainty on the future shape of the EU has risen to an unprecedented level. This uncertainty is likely to cause troubles not only to the EU and its member states but also to third countries including South Korea in long-term decision makings at the levels of business, consumer and government, due to the Union's importance in world economy and international trade. Against this backdrop, this report analyzes the problems of the current system of the EU, forecasts its future shape and derives policy implications for Korean government. 영국의 탈퇴 결정으로 EU(European Union, 유럽연합)는 전례 없는 위기를 맞고 있다. 인구 및 경제 규모에서 높은 비중을 차지하는 주요 회원국의 탈퇴 자체가 가져오는 혼란뿐만 아니라, 유로지역 재정위기, 난민사태 등을 겪으며 쌓여온 EU 체제에 대한 불만이 브렉시트(영국의 EU 탈퇴)를 계기로 표면화 되었기 때문이다. 이러한 불만을 등에 업고 자국의 EU 탈퇴를 주장하는 정치세력들이 영국 외 EU 회원국들에서도 발호하였고, 주요 회원국 정상들과 EU 기관들은 현행 EU 체제에 대한 개혁안을 앞다투어 제시하고 있다. 제2차 세계대전 직후 유럽의 평화와 번영을 위해 설립된 유럽석탄철강공동체를 시작으로 줄곧 심화와 확대를 추구해온 유럽통합에 심각한 제동이 걸렸고, EU 체제의 미래가 어느 때보다 불확실해진 상황이다. EU 체제의 미래에 대한 불확실성은 당사자인 EU 및 회원국들뿐만 아니라, 세계경제와 국제무역에서 EU가 차지하는 높은 비중으로 인해 우리나라와 같은 제3국에도 기업, 소비자, 정부 등의 장기적인 의사결정에 큰 어려움을 줄 가능성이 높다. 이러한 문제의식 아래 본 보고서는 브렉시트를 계기로 표면화된 현행 EU 체제의 문제점을 분석하고 브렉시트 이후 EU 체제의 미래를 전망한 후 이를 바탕으로 우리 정부를 위한 정책시사점을 도출한다.
英国退出欧盟的决定使欧盟陷入了前所未有的危机。这样一个经济规模和人口规模都很大的成员国的退出本身就引发了动荡,而在欧元区主权债务危机和难民危机期间积累起来的对欧盟现行制度的不满也因英国脱欧而凸显出来。在这种不满情绪的支持下,要求本国退出欧盟的政治力量在其他成员国也有所抬头,其他主要成员国和欧盟机构的政府首脑纷纷提出对现行体系进行改革。自第二次世界大战后为了欧洲的和平与繁荣而成立的欧洲煤钢共同体Ⅱ以来,欧洲一体化的深化和延伸处于中断状态,欧盟未来形态的不确定性上升到前所未有的程度。由于欧盟在世界经济和国际贸易中的重要性,这种不确定性不仅会给欧盟及其成员国带来麻烦,还会给包括韩国在内的第三国在企业、消费者、政府层面的长期决策带来麻烦。在此背景下,本报告书分析了欧盟现行体制存在的问题,展望了未来的形态,并提出了对韩国政府的政策启示。영국의탈퇴결정으로欧盟(欧盟、유럽연합)는전례없는위기를맞고있다。인구및경제규모에서높은비중을차지하는주요회원국의탈퇴자체가가져오는혼란뿐만아니라,유로지역재정위기,난민사태등을겪으며쌓여온欧盟체제에대한불만이브렉시트(영국의欧盟탈퇴)를계기로표면화되었기때문이다。이러한불만을등에업고자국의欧盟탈퇴를주장하는정치세력들이영국외欧盟회원국들에서도발호하였고,주요회원국정상들과欧盟기관들은현행欧盟체제에대한개혁안을앞다투어제시하고있다。제2차세계대전직후유럽의평화와번영을위해설립된유럽석탄철강공동체를시작으로줄곧심화와확대를추구해온유럽통합에심각한제동이걸렸고,欧盟체제의미래가어느때보다불확실해진상황이다。欧盟체제의미래에대한불확실성은당사자인欧盟및회원국들뿐만아니라,세계경제와국제무역에서가欧盟차지하는높은비중으로인해우리나라와같은제3국에도기업,소비자,정부등의장기적인의사결정에큰어려움을줄가능성이높다。이러한문제의식아래본보고서는브렉시트를계기로표면화된현행欧盟체제의문제점을분석하고브렉시트이후欧盟체제의미래를전망한후이를바탕으로우리정부를위한정책시사점을도출한다。
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引用次数: 0
Taxation of the Sharing Economy in the European Union 欧盟共享经济的税收
Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3091281
Katerina Pantazatou
The chapter provides an overview of taxation in the EU and the taxation of the sharing economy in general. First, I turn to examine whether and if so, to what extent, secondary EU tax legislation applies in the sharing economy and how other areas of law, such as labour law, affect taxation. Following this, I briefly present some of the different initiatives of the Member States with regard to taxation of the sharing economy and the remaining challenges they face, including the potential applicability of state aid rules.
本章概述了欧盟的税收和共享经济的税收。首先,我转而研究欧盟次级税收立法是否适用于共享经济,如果适用,在多大程度上适用于共享经济,以及劳动法等其他法律领域如何影响税收。在此之后,我将简要介绍成员国在共享经济税收方面的一些不同举措,以及它们面临的其他挑战,包括国家援助规则的潜在适用性。
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引用次数: 6
The Protection of Legitimate Expectations in the Recovery of State Aid: On the Brink of a European and National Principle? 恢复国家援助时对合法期望的保护:处于欧洲和国家原则的边缘?
Pub Date : 2017-11-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3074333
J. Gruyters
The principle of legitimate expectations is a general principle, recognized by the European Union and a large number of her Member States. However, there is not a semantic uniformity in the European legal order. This literature review will focus from a comparative perspective on the principle of legitimate expectations as it exists in Belgian, Dutch and Union Law, applied to the recovery procedure of State aid, where procedural autonomy is conceded to member states. The corollary of this "multi-layered" judicial process is a tension between the European and the national interpretation of legitimate expectations. The central issue in this literature review can be posed as follows: How is the legitimate expectations principle interpreted and applied in the EU, the Netherlands and in Belgium? How do they interact in the recovery procedure of State aid and what are their mutual influences?
合理期望的原则是一项普遍原则,得到欧洲联盟及其许多成员国的承认。然而,欧洲法律秩序在语义上并不统一。本文献综述将从比较的角度关注合法期望原则,因为它存在于比利时、荷兰和欧盟法中,适用于国家援助的恢复程序,其中程序自主权被承认给成员国。这种“多层次”司法程序的必然结果是欧洲和国家对合法期望的解释之间的紧张关系。本文献综述的中心问题可以提出如下:合法期望原则在欧盟、荷兰和比利时是如何解释和应用的?它们在国家援助的恢复程序中如何相互作用?它们之间的相互影响是什么?
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引用次数: 0
The Euro Area's Common Pool Problem Revisited: Has the Single Supervisory Mechanism Ameliorated Forbearance and Evergreening? 重新审视欧元区的共同资金池问题:单一监管机制是否改善了容忍和常青树?
Pub Date : 2017-09-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3057925
Sven Steinkamp, A. Tornell, F. Westermann
The Single Supervisory Mechanism was introduced to eliminate the common-pool problem and limit uncontrolled lending by national central banks (NCBs). We analyze its effectiveness. Second, we model how, by forbearing and providing refinancing credit, NCBs avoid domestic resolution costs and, instead, share potential losses within the Euro Area. This results in “evergreening” of bad loans. Third, we construct a new evergreening index based on a large worldwide survey administered by the ifo institute. Regressions show evergreening is significantly greater in the Euro Area and where banks are in distress. Finally, greater evergreening accompanies higher growth of NCB-credit and Target2-liabilities.
引入单一监管机制是为了消除共同资金池问题,限制各国央行不受控制的放贷。我们分析了它的有效性。其次,我们对国家银行如何通过容忍和提供再融资信贷来避免国内清算成本,并在欧元区内部分担潜在损失进行了建模。这导致不良贷款“常青”。第三,我们在ifo研究所进行的一项大型全球调查的基础上构建了一个新的常绿指数。回归显示,常青树在欧元区和银行陷入困境的地方明显更大。最后,更大的常绿伴随着ncb信贷和target2负债的更高增长。
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引用次数: 10
Recognition and Enforcement of Civil and Commercial Judgments in Europe after Brexit 英国脱欧后欧洲民商事判决的承认与执行
Pub Date : 2017-09-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3042180
J. Dalhuisen
After Brexit, therefore from March 29 2019, the UK ceases to be a Member of the EU and looses amongst others the benefit of the 2012 Regulation on Jurisdiction and the Recognition and Enforcement of Judgments in Civil and Commercial Matters, entered into force in 2015, which was an update or recast of the earlier 2000 Regulation, effective since 2002 (hereafter the Regulation). It provides throughout the EU a mutual recognition and enforcement regime of civil and commercial judgments rendered in any EU country, further facilitated by two closely related other Regulations. We must therefore assume that as from that date, UK civil and commercial judgments will no longer be recognized and enforceable under this EU framework in EU Member States and vice versa. It is a serious set back for London as a legal centre. This short paper deals with the consequences and what the alternatives are. A shortened version will appear in the November issue of Butterworth Journal of International Banking and Financial Law (JIBFL).
英国脱欧后,即从2019年3月29日起,英国将不再是欧盟成员国,并将失去2015年生效的《2012年民事和商事案件管辖权及判决的承认和执行条例》的好处,该条例是对2002年生效的2000年条例的更新或重新制定(以下简称《条例》)。它为整个欧盟提供了一个相互承认和执行在任何欧盟国家作出的民商事判决的制度,并由两个密切相关的其他条例进一步促进。因此,我们必须假设,从这一天起,英国的民事和商业判决将不再被欧盟成员国承认和执行,反之亦然。这是伦敦作为法律中心的一次严重挫折。这篇短文讨论了后果和替代方案。缩短版将出现在11月的巴特沃斯国际银行和金融法杂志(JIBFL)上。
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引用次数: 0
Why Grexit Cannot Save Greece (But Staying in the Euro Area Might) 为什么希腊退欧救不了希腊(但留在欧元区可能)
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3018477
Chrysafis Iordanoglou, M. Matsaganis
Grexit was narrowly averted in summer 2015. Nevertheless, the view that Greece might be better off outside the Euro area has never really gone away. Moreover, although Marine Le Pen’s bid for the French presidency was frustrated in May 2017, in Italy a disparate coalition, encompassing Beppe Grillo’s Movimento Cinque Stelle as well as Matteo Salvini’s Lega Nord, has called for a referendum on exiting the Euro. In this context, our argument that Grexit cannot save Greece may be of some relevance to national debates elsewhere in Europe. The paper examines the case for Grexit by offering a detailed account of its likely effects. Its structure is as follows. Section 2 analyses the transition, with the two currencies (old and new) coexisting. Section 3 charts the challenges facing the Greek economy in the short term, after the new national currency has become legal tender. Section 4 assesses prospects in the medium term, with Grexit complete and the new currency drastically devalued. Section 5 reviews the underlying weaknesses of Greece’s growth regime and explains why these are unrelated to the nominal exchange rate. Section 6 discusses the conditions for an investment-led recovery, and shows why tackling them would be more difficult outside the Euro area. Section 7 sums up and concludes.
2015年夏天,希腊勉强避免了退出欧元区。然而,希腊离开欧元区可能会更好的观点从未真正消失。此外,尽管马琳·勒庞在2017年5月竞选法国总统失败,但在意大利,包括贝佩·格里洛的五世运动和马泰奥·萨尔维尼的北方联盟在内的一个截然不同的联盟呼吁就退出欧元区举行公投。在这种背景下,我们关于“希腊退欧”无法拯救希腊的观点,或许与欧洲其他国家的国内辩论有些关联。这篇论文通过详细描述希腊退欧可能产生的影响,研究了希腊退欧的理由。其结构如下:第2节分析了两种货币(旧货币和新货币)共存的转变。第三部分描绘了在新的国家货币成为法定货币后,希腊经济在短期内面临的挑战。第四部分评估了中期前景,即希腊退出欧元区完成,新货币大幅贬值。第5节回顾了希腊增长机制的潜在弱点,并解释了为什么这些弱点与名义汇率无关。第6节讨论了投资主导型复苏的条件,并说明了为什么在欧元区之外解决这些条件会更加困难。第7部分是总结和总结。
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引用次数: 6
How Many Cases? Assessing the Comparability of EU Judicial Datasets 有多少病例?评估欧盟司法数据集的可比性
Pub Date : 2017-06-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2990558
E. A. Onţanu, M. Velicogna, F. Contini
markdownabstractEfficiency is often considered a key component of any effective justice system, and a crucial drive for economic growth. A growing body of comparative studies explores how judicial reforms leading to a greater efficiency or effectiveness are positively correlated with economic growth (e.g. Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum, Doing Business Report of the World Bank, Judicial Reforms in Europe Report of the ENCJ, The Economics of Civil Justice of the OECD). At EU level, the European Commission has launched tools like the EU Justice Scoreboard to help the Member States to improve the effectiveness of their justice systems. This instrument, in particular, has been created to help EU Member Stares upholding more effective justice and, in particular, to measure and compare the efficiency of EU justice systems. The belief is that more effective and efficient justice systems will drive stronger economic growth, since “effective justice systems are a prerequisite for an investment and business friendly environment” (EU Justice Scoreboard 2016, p. 1). Efficiency and effectiveness are just two, out of several, basic features of justice systems. An efficient (or effective) justice system could potentially suffer from a lack of an independent judiciary and/or miss fairness of procedures and quality of judicial service. This paper, though, does not want to challenge the efficiency approach on these grounds. The researchers aim to check to what extent the data on efficiency used in academic and political discourses that are provided by the Scoreboard is sound enough to make empirically grounded statements in a valid comparative format among the Member States. In a simplified (but not simplistic) way, efficiency can be defined as the ratio between inputs (resources) and outputs (decisions) of the system. While formally aiming to measure and compare efficiency of Member States’ justice systems, the EU-Justice Scoreboard does not link inputs and outputs indicators to for this purpose. Furthermore, we argue that any attempt to make cross-country comparisons is affected by the comparability of the data sets used for the purpose. Another scholar presenting his proposal at this conference, Marco Fabri, explores the question of the comparability of human resources data (judges) that in labour intensive organisation like courts can be considered as the key production factor (“Too few judges” paper). This paper explores a different area, complementing Fabri’s work. The researchers choose to explore the case-flow indicators presented by the Scoreboard which bases its analysis on the number of incoming, pending and resolved cases. The number of cases a court system manages to handle in a year is often considered emblematic for its efficiency. In Europe, the Commission for the Efficiency of Justice of the Council of Europe is the primary collector of such data, which is published in the “CEPEJ Evaluation of European Judicial S
效率通常被认为是任何有效司法系统的关键组成部分,也是经济增长的关键动力。越来越多的比较研究探索司法改革如何导致更高的效率或效果与经济增长呈正相关(例如世界经济论坛的全球竞争力报告,世界银行的营商环境报告,欧洲司法改革报告,经合组织的民事司法经济学)。在欧盟层面,欧盟委员会推出了欧盟司法记分牌等工具,以帮助成员国提高其司法系统的效率。特别值得一提的是,这一工具的建立是为了帮助欧盟成员国维护更有效的司法,特别是为了衡量和比较欧盟司法系统的效率。人们相信,更有效和高效的司法系统将推动更强劲的经济增长,因为“有效的司法系统是投资和商业友好环境的先决条件”(欧盟司法记分牌2016年,第1页)。效率和有效性只是司法系统几个基本特征中的两个。一个高效率的(或有效的)司法系统可能因缺乏独立的司法和(或)程序的公正性和司法服务的质量而受到影响。然而,本文并不想在这些基础上挑战效率方法。研究人员的目的是检查记分牌提供的关于学术和政治论述中使用的效率的数据在多大程度上是可靠的,足以在会员国之间以有效的比较形式作出基于经验的陈述。以一种简化的(但不是简单的)方式,效率可以定义为系统的投入(资源)和产出(决策)之间的比率。虽然欧盟司法记分牌的正式目的是衡量和比较成员国司法系统的效率,但它并没有为此目的将投入和产出指标联系起来。此外,我们认为,任何进行跨国比较的尝试都会受到用于该目的的数据集的可比性的影响。另一位学者Marco Fabri在本次会议上提出了他的建议,他探讨了人力资源数据(法官)的可比性问题,在像法院这样的劳动密集型组织中,法官可以被视为关键的生产因素(“法官太少”论文)。本文探索了一个不同的领域,补充了Fabri的工作。研究人员选择探索由计分板提供的病例流指标,计分板的分析基于传入、待处理和已解决的病例数量。法院系统在一年内处理的案件数量通常被认为是其效率的象征。在欧洲,欧洲委员会司法效率委员会是此类数据的主要收集者,这些数据发表在“CEPEJ欧洲司法系统评估报告”中。欧盟司法记分牌和许多其他学术和政策文件也使用同样的数据。分析将处理这些数据的可比性,并表明这种可比性不能被视为理所当然。它将评估不同会员国对“案件”、不同“案件类型”及其状态(传入、待决和已解决)的定义是否一致。它将检查各国的特点是否使表面上相同的病例组之间的比较不可靠或不一致。先前的分析表明,这些数据的可比性在许多领域至关重要,例如跨时间(州一级)的答案的一致性,以及同一时期内国家之间的答案的一致性。本文件将说明会员国为填补小额索赔、诉讼或非诉讼案件等显然简单的案件类别所提供的数据如何各不相同,这至少使比较有问题。这一发现以及与衡量法官人数有关的类似问题表明,在学术和政治辩论中,为了司法系统之间的比较目的而使用这种指标时应谨慎行事。
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引用次数: 1
Sanctions, Real and Imaginary: Experiences with Russia in the Ukraine Crisis 制裁,真实与想象:乌克兰危机中俄罗斯的经验
Pub Date : 2017-05-22 DOI: 10.37974/ALF.293
J. Caytas
This article identifies untapped potential for creative combinations within the sanctions arsenal, but also substantial long-term risks threatening to undermine the very global financial and trading infrastructure that renders Western sanctioning power effective in the first place. It introduces multi-party sanctions against Russia and the Russian response thereto, analysing how sanctions were aided by three unusual prongs: the damage potential of a SWIFT blockade, the devastating effect of the post-2014 oil price drop, and the consideration of using debt sanctions. It then examines defensive measures taken by Russia and others that aim at undermining the effectiveness of future Western sanctions.
本文指出了在制裁武器库中创造性组合的尚未开发的潜力,但也存在巨大的长期风险,这些风险可能会破坏全球金融和贸易基础设施,而正是这些基础设施使西方的制裁权力发挥作用。它介绍了针对俄罗斯的多方制裁以及俄罗斯对此的回应,分析了三个不同寻常的方面是如何帮助制裁的:SWIFT封锁的潜在损害、2014年后油价下跌的破坏性影响,以及使用债务制裁的考虑。然后,它审查了俄罗斯和其他国家采取的旨在破坏未来西方制裁有效性的防御措施。
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引用次数: 0
The Structure of Cigarette Excises in the EU: From Myths to Reality 欧盟香烟税收结构:从神话到现实
Pub Date : 2017-03-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2951011
Marko Primorac, Silvija Vlah Jerić
Although it may at first seem unimportant, the structure of excise taxes on cigarettes greatly affects the price of cigarettes, the structure of the consumption, but also the amount of the tax revenue. EU Directive 2011/64/EU prescribes the combination of the specific and the proportional (ad valorem) excise tax on cigarettes. However, Member States independently determine the shares of one or another component in the overall excise tax structure, whereby the EU directive only prescribes the upper and the lower limit. The purpose of this article is to challenge several myths related to the cigarette taxation in the EU. The first one is that an increase of the specific component of the cigarette excise negatively affects the consumption of cigarettes, whereas this does not hold for the proportional component. The second assumption empirically tested in the paper is that an increase of the specific excise increases the government revenue from cigarette excises, whereby this can not be confirmed for the proportional component. Lastly, since both previous hypotheses have been confirmed, we tried to delve into reasons why certain countries – despite obvious advantages of the specific in relation to proportional excise – still predominantly rely on the latter. To this end, we tested the assumption that countries with domestic production of tobacco increasingly use proportional excises to increase the price gap between domestic (usually cheaper) and more expensive (imported/international) brands. The results of the empirical analysis were consistent with this hypothesis and confirmed that domestic tobacco production is a significant determinant of the structure of cigarette excises.
虽然乍一看似乎不重要,但香烟消费税的结构极大地影响了香烟的价格、消费结构,也影响了税收的数额。欧盟指令2011/64/EU规定对香烟征收特定税和比例(从价)消费税。然而,各成员国独立决定一个或另一个组成部分在整个消费税结构中的份额,而欧盟指令只规定了上限和下限。这篇文章的目的是挑战几个神话有关香烟税在欧盟。第一个是增加香烟消费税的特定成分会对香烟的消费产生负面影响,而这并不适用于比例成分。本文实证检验的第二个假设是,特定消费税的增加增加了政府从香烟消费税中获得的收入,因此这不能被比例成分所证实。最后,由于前面的两种假设都得到了证实,我们试图深入研究为什么某些国家——尽管在比例消费税方面具有明显的优势——仍然主要依赖后者。为此,我们检验了一个假设,即国内生产烟草的国家越来越多地使用比例税来扩大国内(通常更便宜)和更昂贵(进口/国际)品牌之间的价格差距。实证分析的结果与这一假设一致,并证实了国内烟草生产是卷烟税收结构的重要决定因素。
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引用次数: 1
Europeanization of Good Governance in Romania: Where and Why Does it Fail, and What Can Be Done About it? 罗马尼亚良政的欧洲化:在哪里、为何失败,以及如何应对?
Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2926871
Martin Mendelski
What impact does the European Union (EU) have on good governance Romania? The analysis shows that EU-driven governance reforms improve substantive legality (the alignment of domestic legislation with international best standards), state capacity but weaken formal legality (the inner morality of law), many aspects of impartiality, efficiency-effectiveness and the coherence of state structures and policies. As a result, good governance is undermined. The persistence of bad governance is explained by three fundamental problems of Europeanization: 1. Focus on quantity instead of quality, 2. Partisan empowerment of change agents, 3. Biased assessment of reform progress. The main argument is supported by an indicator-based analysis and qualitative interviews with representatives from the EU and Romania.
欧盟对罗马尼亚的良政有何影响?分析表明,欧盟推动的治理改革提高了实质合法性(使国内立法与国际最佳标准保持一致)、国家能力,但削弱了形式合法性(法律的内在道德)、公正性、效率-有效性以及国家结构和政策的一致性等许多方面。结果,良好的治理被破坏了。不良治理的持续存在可以用欧洲化的三个基本问题来解释:1 .注重数量而不是质量。2 .党派赋予变革推动者权力;对改革进展的不公正评价。主要论点得到了基于指标的分析和对欧盟和罗马尼亚代表的定性访谈的支持。
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International Institutions: European Union eJournal
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