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Mind the (trade) gap! How costly is erecting barriers to trade? 注意(贸易)差额!建立贸易壁垒的成本有多高?
Pub Date : 2021-10-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3702630
Beata Gafka
Brexit referendum disrupted global trade: UK's exchange with EU and numerous third countries would suffer. Relative stock prices reacted accordingly with the damage greater and longer-lasting for the UK than the block. UK-focused manufacturing fared worst in both regions. UK's EU-exposed services firms were also impacted – the market correctly expected December 2020 ''no-deal'' outcome for that sector. Third-country exposure attenuated the shock's impact on EU but not UK companies. Consequently, the UK zone factor underperformed the old-EU one by 20 pp between 2016 and 2019. Brexit exposure high-low portfolio explains 70% of the time-series variation in this underperformance. Overall, the results showcase impact of trade de-liberalization on firm and country business risk.
英国脱欧公投扰乱了全球贸易:英国与欧盟和众多第三国的贸易往来将受到影响。相对股价也做出了相应的反应,与欧盟相比,英国受到的损害更大、持续时间更长。以英国为重点的制造业在这两个地区表现最差。英国受欧盟影响的服务公司也受到了影响——市场正确地预测了该行业在2020年12月的“无协议”结果。第三国敞口减轻了冲击对欧盟企业的影响,但对英国企业没有影响。因此,2016年至2019年期间,英国欧元区因素的表现比旧欧盟因素低了20个百分点。英国脱欧风险高-低投资组合解释了这种表现不佳的70%的时间序列变化。总体而言,结果显示了贸易自由化对企业和国家商业风险的影响。
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引用次数: 0
LA UNIÓN EUROPEA Y LA SEGURIDAD ALIMENTARIA AD EXTRA (The European Union and Ad Extra Food Security) LA UNIÓN EUROPEA Y LA SEGURIDAD ALIMENTARIA AD EXTRA(欧盟和额外粮食安全)
Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3922665
Miguel Martín López, Adriana Fillol Mazo
Spanish Abstract: La Unión Europea está terminando de perfilar una política europea de seguridad alimentaria que pretende estar en lo más alto de su agenda. El programa “De la Granja a la Mesa” así lo atestigua. En los documentos de la Unión Europea al respecto se indica que quieren darle peso también en esta materia a la cooperación internacional, intentando compartir conocimientos en la materia, estando incluso en curso algunos proyectos de investigación. Ahora bien, se observa que hay una confusión sobre el alcance del término seguridad alimentaria, centrado en exclusiva en cuestiones de protección en la cadena alimentaria. En el ámbito internacional, por el contrario, está ligado a la lucha contra el hambre. Hay que reconocer que la Unión Europea, como actor global, participa en numerosas acciones ligadas a ello, en particular con la FAO. Participa también en las negociaciones internacionales sobre textos que tienen efecto, a veces sin conseguirse la unanimidad, como en la reciente Declaración de Naciones Unidas sobre derechos de los campesinos. Es interesante, por tanto, reflexionar y hacer propuestas para conseguir una mayor coherencia de la acción exterior de la Unión Europa en esta materia. English Abstract: The European Union is designing a Food Security European Policy that aims to be on the top of the political agenda. From farm to fork programme is a clean example of this. International cooperation has a role in this policy, as EU documents say, including expertise sharing and international research projects. However, there is confusion on the content of this policy, too focused on food chain protection. At international level there is, however, a fight against hungry. It is true that the European Union, as global player, takes part in many actions, particularly in the FAO framework. It also participates in international negotiations of treaties, sometimes reached without unanimity, as the recent UN Declaration on the Rights of Peasants. It is interesting, then, to think about these EU external actions in order to print more coherence on them.
摘要:欧盟正在完成一项欧洲食品安全政策的制定,该政策声称是其议程的首要任务。“从农场到餐桌”项目证明了这一点。欧洲联盟关于这一问题的文件表明,他们也希望重视这一领域的国际合作,努力分享这一领域的知识,事实上,一些研究项目正在进行中。然而,人们对“食品安全”一词的含义存在混淆,它只关注食物链中的保护问题。另一方面,在国际一级,它与与饥饿作斗争有关。必须承认,欧洲联盟作为一个全球参与者,参与了许多与此有关的行动,特别是与粮农组织合作。它还参与有关有效文本的国际谈判,有时没有达成一致意见,例如最近的联合国农民权利宣言。因此,值得思考和提出建议,以便使欧洲联盟在这一领域的对外行动更加一致。欧盟正在制定一项欧洲粮食安全政策,旨在将其置于政治议程的首位。从农场到fork程序就是一个很好的例子。正如欧盟文件所说,国际合作在这一政策中发挥了作用,包括专业知识分享和国际研究项目。然而,这一政策的内容令人困惑,因为它过于关注食物链保护。在国际层面上,有一场反对饥饿的斗争。的确,欧洲联盟作为一个全球参与者参与了许多行动,特别是在粮农组织框架内。它还参加国际条约谈判,有时没有达成一致意见,例如最近的《农民权利宣言》。因此,考虑这些外部行动是很有趣的,以便使它们更加一致。
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引用次数: 0
How Global Jihad Relocalises and Where it Leads. The Case of HTS, the Former AQ Franchise in Syria 全球圣战如何重新定位及其走向。HTS的案例,前基地组织在叙利亚的分支
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3796931
Jérôme Drevon, P. Haenni
The territories ruled by the Syrian opposition are being reorganised. The leaderless revolution has given way to a seizure of power by vanguardist and ideological organisations, be it the PYD in the northeast or HTS, the former local branch of AQ, in Idlib. However, these organisations cannot resist the regime’s military threat to reconquer the territories or the Turkish intervention by themselves. They need to manage the internationalisation of the conflict to protect themselves and find space in the broader strategic game around Syria. This is the strategy of HTS. After emerging from the matrix of AQ's global jihad, since 2017 HTS has sought to ‘institutionalise’ the revolution by imposing its military hegemony and full control of the institutions of local governance. The group has thus marginalised the revolutionary milieu, other Islamists and the threat posed by AQ supporters and IS cells in Idlib. HTS’s domination was followed by a policy of gradual opening and mainstreamisation. The group has had to open up to local communities and make concessions, especially in the religious sphere. HTS is seeking international acceptance with the development of a strategic partnership with Turkey and desires to open dialogue with Western countries. Overall, HTS has transformed from formerly being a salafi jihadi organisation into having a new mainstream approach to political Islam.
叙利亚反对派控制的地区正在进行重组。没有领袖的革命已经让位于先锋派和意识形态组织对权力的夺取,无论是东北部的PYD还是伊德利卜的前基地组织当地分支HTS。然而,这些组织无法独自抵抗该政权重新征服领土的军事威胁或土耳其的干预。他们需要管理冲突的国际化,以保护自己,并在围绕叙利亚的更广泛战略博弈中找到空间。这就是HTS的战略。在脱离基地组织的全球圣战矩阵后,自2017年以来,HTS一直试图通过强加其军事霸权和完全控制地方治理机构来“制度化”革命。因此,该组织已经将革命环境、其他伊斯兰主义者以及基地组织支持者和伊德利卜的伊斯兰国组织构成的威胁边缘化。HTS的统治之后是逐步开放和主流化的政策。该组织不得不向当地社区开放并做出让步,特别是在宗教领域。HTS正在寻求与土耳其发展战略伙伴关系的国际认可,并希望与西方国家展开对话。总的来说,HTS已经从以前的萨拉菲圣战组织转变为一种新的主流政治伊斯兰教。
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引用次数: 7
Responding to Hybridity in an Unstable Neighborhood: The Efficiency of the EU State-centric Approach to the Crisis in Libya and Ukraine 应对不稳定邻国的混杂性:欧盟以国家为中心处理利比亚和乌克兰危机的效率
Pub Date : 2020-12-24 DOI: 10.18523/kmlpj220689.2020-6.1-25
Luca Raineri, Kateryna Ivashchenko-Stadnik, R. Petrov
This article investigates the complex problems arising from the discrepancy of traditional liberal crisis response approaches in the new type of complex emergencies. Based on the in-depth empirical analysis, it  examines  the EU role in addressing security sector reforms, humanitarian assistance and warfare in Lib y a and Ukraine ,  two key EU neighboring countries with ongoing military conflicts. It is argued that the observed over-emphasis on state-centric stabili z ation measures, with its main focus on formal state structures, fails to deal with the hybrid dynamics of conflict and  peacebuilding  in both cou n t rie s. It is suggested that to shape comprehensive crisis response in an unstable neighborhood a multi-layered perspectives approach to security, sensitive to plural agencies and informal rules, should be developed both outside  and within  EU borders.
本文探讨了传统自由主义危机应对方法在新型复杂突发事件中的差异所带来的复杂问题。基于深入的实证分析,它考察了欧盟在解决安全部门改革、人道主义援助和利比亚和乌克兰战争方面的作用,这两个主要的欧盟邻国正在发生军事冲突。本文认为,过度强调以国家为中心的稳定措施,其主要重点是正式的国家结构,未能处理两国冲突与和平建设的混合动力。本文建议,为了在不稳定的邻国形成全面的危机应对,应该在欧盟境内外开发一种多层视角的安全方法,对多种机构和非正式规则敏感。
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引用次数: 1
Report on the Dynamics of Differentiated Integration 差别化集成动力学报告
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3783163
F. Schimmelfennig, Thomas Winzen
This report examines the dynamics of differentiated integration. In particular, it studies whether differentiated integration is a path-dependent process, in which earlier differentiation increases the likelihood of additional differentiation in the future. In a set of analyses on the EU’s treaty-based and legislative differentiation and the Eurozone crisis, this report provides consistent evidence for path-dependence. The analysis of treaty reforms shows that the extent of pre-existing differentiation in a policy area is correlated significantly with differentiations in subsequent treaty reforms – even when controlling for exogenous factors of differentiated integration. In turn, differentiation in EU legislation follows differentiation in EU treaties. Whereas such path dependence only takes place in the area of core state power integration, it is clearly the most important factor driving legislative differentiation. Finally, in the Eurozone crisis, the differential impact of the crisis on euro area and non-euro area countries motivated the euro area countries to adopt far-reaching centralizing reforms and financial commitments that non-euro area members refused or were excluded from. In sum, differentiated integration has not only been pronounced in policy domains related to core state powers – such as macroeconomic and security policies – when they were initially integrated, but the legal gap between insiders and outsiders has grown over time.
本报告探讨了差异化整合的动态。特别是,它研究了分化整合是否是一个路径依赖的过程,在这个过程中,早期的分化增加了未来进一步分化的可能性。通过对欧盟基于条约和立法的差异以及欧元区危机的一系列分析,本报告为路径依赖提供了一致的证据。对条约改革的分析表明,政策领域中预先存在的差异程度与随后条约改革中的差异显著相关——即使在控制差异化整合的外生因素时也是如此。反过来,欧盟立法的分化遵循欧盟条约的分化。虽然这种路径依赖只发生在国家核心权力整合领域,但它显然是推动立法分化的最重要因素。最后,在欧元区危机中,危机对欧元区和非欧元区国家的不同影响促使欧元区国家采取了非欧元区成员国拒绝或被排除在外的深远的集中化改革和财政承诺。总而言之,差异化整合不仅在与核心国家权力相关的政策领域——如宏观经济和安全政策——最初整合时表现得很明显,而且内部人士和外部人士之间的法律差距也随着时间的推移而扩大。
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引用次数: 0
A New Integration Era in the EU: Theory, Assessment and Main Challenges 欧盟一体化新时代:理论、评估与主要挑战
Pub Date : 2020-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3675008
Constantinos Ikonomou
It is hard to re-create the edifice of a united Europe. It was based on substantial theoretical developments from integration theory, economics, international, political, cultural, social and other studies, layered at the top of economic, social, cultural and other existing foundations of nation-states. Their contribution in the unification is often disregarded, and has been overshadowed by problems encountered after the two most recent crises, the “Brexit”, the missing Eurozone components revealed and the realization that the European integration remains incomplete. After highlighting the most principal theoretical foundations and the recent, significant institutional and policy amendments at the common edifice, a long-term assessment of the EU integration process is attempted for the 1971–2015 period, by comparing GDP per head (in constant PPPs) and its change, for EU and non-EU states that are OECD members. Several points are raised on the unification and the mistakes made that risk harming it even further. It is suggested that a new, hitherto unidentified, integration stage has been formed that will require further use of economic theory and the setting-up of a common production union to advance competitiveness and co-operation, while espousing common European values and culture.
重建一个统一的欧洲大厦是困难的。它基于整合理论、经济学、国际、政治、文化、社会和其他研究的大量理论发展,在民族国家的经济、社会、文化和其他现有基础之上分层。他们对统一的贡献往往被忽视,并且被最近两次危机后遇到的问题所掩盖,“英国脱欧”,欧元区缺失部分的暴露以及欧洲一体化仍未完成的认识。在强调了最主要的理论基础和共同大楼最近的重大制度和政策修订之后,通过比较经合组织成员国的欧盟和非欧盟国家的人均GDP(以恒定购买力平价计算)及其变化,试图对1971-2015年期间的欧盟一体化进程进行长期评估。关于统一和所犯的错误提出了几点,这些错误可能会进一步损害统一。有人提出,一个迄今尚未确定的新的一体化阶段已经形成,这将需要进一步运用经济理论,建立一个共同的生产联盟,以提高竞争力和合作,同时支持欧洲共同的价值观和文化。
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引用次数: 1
Cross-border Corporate Mobility in the EU: Empirical Findings 2020 (Edition 1) 欧盟跨国企业流动性:实证研究结果2020(第1版)
Pub Date : 2020-08-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3674089
Thomas Biermeyer, Marcus Meyer
This report on cross-border mobility in the European Union focuses, in its fifth edition, on cross-border mergers, cross-border conversions, cross-border divisions as well as on SEs within the period of 2013 to 2020.
这份关于欧盟跨境流动的报告,在其第五版中,重点关注2013年至2020年期间的跨境合并、跨境转换、跨境分立以及中小企业。
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引用次数: 0
Disillusionment and the Growth of Mass-Level Euroscepticism in Post-Communist East-Central Europe 后共产主义东欧的幻灭和大众层面的欧洲怀疑主义的增长
Pub Date : 2019-12-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3500819
B. Sokolov, E. Ponarin
This paper seeks to test if the disillusionment theory developed by Sokolov et al. (2018) to explain the rise of anti-Americanism in post-Soviet Russia, can also explain the recent growth of Euroscepticism in East-Central Europe (ECE). We provide anecdotal evidence of anti-EU disillusionment in the region and then test several empirical implications of the disillusionment theory using mass-level survey data from the European Social Survey (ESS). Our empirical findings are, however, contradictory. This suggests that the disillusionment model cannot be directly applied to the ECE case and should be modified to some extent. We propose two potential modifications. The first is based on David Laitin’s concept of “the most favored lords” and the second underscores the benefits that EU membership offers to the upper strata of Eastern European societies
本文试图检验Sokolov等人(2018)提出的用于解释后苏联俄罗斯反美主义兴起的幻灭理论,是否也可以解释中东欧(ECE)最近欧洲怀疑主义的增长。我们提供了该地区反欧盟幻灭的轶事证据,然后使用欧洲社会调查(ESS)的大规模调查数据检验了幻灭理论的几个实证含义。然而,我们的实证发现是矛盾的。这表明幻灭模型不能直接适用于欧洲经委会的情况,应在一定程度上加以修改。我们提出两个可能的修改。前者基于大卫•莱廷(David Laitin)的“最受青睐的领主”概念,后者强调了欧盟成员国身份给东欧社会上层带来的好处
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引用次数: 0
Corporate Restructuring under Relative and Absolute Priority Default Rules: A Comparative Assessment 相对优先违约规则与绝对优先违约规则下的公司重组:比较评估
Pub Date : 2019-12-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3498611
J. Seymour, S. Schwarcz
The European Union recently adopted a Restructuring Directive intended to facilitate the reorganization of insolvent and other financially troubled firms. Although the central goal of the Directive parallels that of Chapter 11 of U.S. bankruptcy law — to protect and maximize the value of financially distressed but economically viable enterprises by consensually reorganizing their capital structure — the Directive introduces an innovative but controversial option: that EU Member States can decree that reorganization negotiations should be subject to a relative priority default rule, in contrast to the type of absolute priority default rule used by Chapter 11. EU officials argue that relative priority is not only fair but also provides the flexibility that is needed pragmatically to restructure a troubled firm. This article explains why relative priority inadvertently can undermine the incentives needed to achieve a successful restructuring, and why absolute priority provides a more effective default rule for reaching a negotiated consensus. Additionally, the article illustrates why the Directive’s standard not only may be unfair to creditors but also might discourage debt investments in the European Union.
欧洲联盟最近通过了一项重组指令,旨在促进破产和其他财政困难公司的重组。尽管该指令的核心目标与美国破产法第11章相似,即通过双方同意重组资本结构来保护陷入财务困境但经济上可行的企业并使其价值最大化,但该指令引入了一个创新但有争议的选择:欧盟成员国可以颁布法令,规定重组谈判应遵循相对优先违约规则,而不是第11章所使用的绝对优先违约规则。欧盟官员认为,相对优先权不仅公平,而且为重组陷入困境的公司提供了务实所需的灵活性。本文解释了为什么相对优先级会在不经意间破坏实现成功重组所需的激励,以及为什么绝对优先级为达成协商一致提供了更有效的默认规则。此外,文章说明了为什么指令的标准不仅可能对债权人不公平,而且可能阻碍在欧盟的债务投资。
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引用次数: 1
Commercial Data Transfers and Liaison Officers: What Data Protection Rules Apply in the Fight Against Impunity When Third Countries are Involved? 商业数据传输和联络官:当涉及第三国时,哪些数据保护规则适用于打击有罪不罚?
Pub Date : 2019-11-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3493611
C. Eckes, D. Barnhoorn
This contribution addresses the question of whether and under what circumstances data protection should prevail over the fight against impunity. It focuses on data cooperation between the European Union and the United States of America (US) in the context of crime prevention and law enforcement. It examines the limited control mechanisms that are in place to ensure data protection after data has been transferred or otherwise shared in the highly relevant and controversial context of commercial transfers of personal data and in the academically rather neglected context of liaison officers seconded from the US to EU agencies within the Area of Freedom Security and Justice (AFSJ). The objective is to identify (1) limits imposed by data protection requirements on data sharing as a means of fighting impunity, (2) responsibilities of EU actors for data that is collected and processed within the EU’s jurisdiction, be it public or private actors, and (3) limits of the EU’s control over data flows in the 21st century.
这一贡献解决了数据保护是否以及在何种情况下应优先于打击有罪不罚现象的问题。它侧重于欧洲联盟和美利坚合众国在预防犯罪和执法方面的数据合作。它审查了有限的控制机制,以确保在数据被转移或以其他方式共享后的数据保护,在高度相关和有争议的个人数据商业转移背景下,以及在学术上相当被忽视的背景下,从美国借调到自由安全和司法领域(AFSJ)内的欧盟机构的联络官员。目标是确定(1)数据保护要求对数据共享施加的限制,作为打击有罪不罚的一种手段,(2)欧盟行为者对在欧盟管辖范围内收集和处理的数据的责任,无论是公共行为者还是私人行为者,以及(3)欧盟对21世纪数据流控制的限制。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Institutions: European Union eJournal
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