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A Comparative Analysis between Intrinsic and Extrinsic Drivers of Inflation 通货膨胀内在和外在驱动因素的比较分析
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15685
T. Habanabakize, Z. Dickason-Koekemoer
In most economies, particularly in developing countries, addressing inflation remains a significant macroeconomic challenge. This study seeks to examine the factors, both internal and external, that contribute to inflationary trends in South Africa. To achieve this objective, the authors employ the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction approach, impulse response function, and variance decomposition on quarterly time series data spanning from 1994 to 2022. The findings of the study provide compelling evidence suggesting that both internal and external factors play a statistically significant role in influencing inflation. However, external forces exert a greater impact on the inflationary pressures witnessed in South Africa when compared to internal factors. Notably, factors such as trade openness, exchange rates, and imported prices contribute significantly to the elevated inflation rate in South Africa. On the other hand, internal factors like sustainable government expenditure, interest rates, and net export prices prove effective in mitigating the inflation rate.
在大多数经济体,尤其是发展中国家,解决通货膨胀问题仍然是一项重大的宏观经济挑战。本研究旨在探讨导致南非通货膨胀趋势的内部和外部因素。为实现这一目标,作者采用了约翰森协整检验法、向量误差修正法、脉冲响应函数以及对 1994 年至 2022 年的季度时间序列数据进行方差分解。研究结果提供了令人信服的证据,表明内部和外部因素在影响通货膨胀方面都发挥了重要的统计作用。然而,与内部因素相比,外部力量对南非通货膨胀压力的影响更大。值得注意的是,贸易开放度、汇率和进口价格等因素在很大程度上导致了南非通货膨胀率的上升。另一方面,可持续的政府支出、利率和净出口价格等内部因素则有效地缓解了通货膨胀率。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting Stock Market Realized Volatility using Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network in South Africa 利用随机森林和人工神经网络预测南非股市的实际波动率
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15431
Lamine Diane, Pradeep Brijlal
Volatility is often used as a key input into several financial models, yet there is still no consensus on the best-performing model in forecasting stock market returns volatility. Conventional time series models such as GARCH are the preferred models in the literature. However, this project aims to first adopt two novel non-linear machine learning algorithms, namely the Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The project then compares the performance of these two models in predicting stock market realized volatility for the JSE Basic Material Index (JBIND) and the JSE Financials Index (JFIN) over a period of five years. Based on the results of the project, the Random Forest model outperformed the ANN model for both the JFIN and JBIND index. Lastly, the COVID effect on the model’s performance was also considered and the results show that the negative impact of COVID on the model’s performance is ambiguous.
波动性经常被用作多个金融模型的关键输入,但对于预测股市收益波动性的最佳模型,目前仍未达成共识。GARCH 等传统时间序列模型是文献中的首选模型。然而,本项目旨在首先采用两种新型非线性机器学习算法,即随机森林和人工神经网络(ANN)。然后,该项目比较了这两种模型在预测五年内 JSE 基础材料指数(JBIND)和 JSE 金融指数(JFIN)的股市实际波动性方面的性能。根据项目结果,随机森林模型对 JFIN 和 JBIND 指数的预测结果优于 ANN 模型。最后,还考虑了 COVID 对模型性能的影响,结果显示 COVID 对模型性能的负面影响并不明显。
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引用次数: 0
Industry 4.0 in Finance, Digital Financial Services and Digital Financial Inclusion in Developing Countries: Opportunities, Challenges, and Possible Policy Responses 发展中国家的工业 4.0 金融、数字金融服务和数字金融包容性:机遇、挑战和可能的对策
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15081
Favourate Y. Mpofu
Fintech and the adoption of Fourth Industrial Revolution (industry 4.0) technologies have expanded the provision and uptake of digital financial services (DFSs) globally. Digital transformation in the financial industry intended to modify financial service provisioning by reducing the costs of accessing and challenges such as inaccessibility due to remoteness, not having a bank account, not having a credit history, or having erratic incomes. Digital financial inclusion (DFI) aims to ensure that financial services, such as deposits, payments, transfers, withdrawals, investments, accessing insurance and credit, checking account balances, receiving money, and making international remittances, are conducted conveniently, easily, safely, reliably, and affordably.  DFI focuses on ensuring access to financial services through digital channels and platforms for individuals, businesses, and households, to promote financial inclusion for all stakeholders, especially previously financially excluded groups. Through a critical review of the literature, this study explores the opportunities and challenges of DFI or the adoption and use of DFS. The review unpacks the possible benefits of using DFSs, which include the broadening financial inclusion, increasing diversity and innovation in the financial services sector, attainment of the SDGs, reduction of poverty, increased economic growth, and minimization of the gender financial inclusion gap, as well as reduction in inequalities. The constraints include the inadequacy of digital infrastructure, taxes on DFS, literacy challenges, digital exclusion, poverty and the gender divide, risks, and lack of trust in the financial services sector. The study recommends appropriate regulation and oversight, literacy enhancement initiatives, investment in digital infrastructure, and increased consumer protection as measures to improve DFI in developing countries.
金融科技和第四次工业革命(工业 4.0)技术的采用在全球范围内扩大了数字金融服务(DFS)的提供和吸收。金融业的数字化转型旨在改变金融服务的提供方式,降低金融服务的获取成本,应对因地处偏远、没有银行账户、没有信用记录或收入不稳定而无法获取金融服务等挑战。数字普惠金融(DFI)旨在确保存款、支付、转账、取款、投资、获取保险和信贷、查询账户余额、收款和国际汇款等金融服务能够以方便、轻松、安全、可靠和负担得起的方式进行。 DFI 的重点是确保个人、企业和家庭通过数字渠道和平台获得金融服务,以促进对所有利益相关者,特别是以前被金融排斥的群体的金融包容性。本研究通过对文献的批判性回顾,探讨了 DFI 或采用和使用 DFS 的机遇和挑战。综述揭示了使用数字金融服务可能带来的益处,包括扩大金融包容性、增加金融服务部门的多样性和创新性、实现可持续发展目标、减少贫困、促进经济增长、缩小金融包容性方面的性别差距以及减少不平等现象。制约因素包括数字基础设施不足、对数字金融服务征税、扫盲挑战、数字排斥、贫困和性别鸿沟、风险以及对金融服务部门缺乏信任。研究报告建议采取适当的监管和监督、扫盲举措、投资数字基础设施和加强消费者保护等措施,改善发展中国家的数字金融服务。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating Financial Performance of the MENA Region Energy Sector: The Interplay of Working Capital and Leverage 中东和北非地区能源行业的财务绩效导航:营运资本与杠杆的相互作用
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15877
Ahmed Elgayar, Sameh Serag, Noura Metawa
This research delves into the influence of leverage considering potential outcomes within operational funds concerning the fiscal implications of the energy industry within the middle east and north Africa region. The research employed an empirical approach by collecting secondary data from the MENA region's energy sector between 2018 and 2022. To achieve this, the study formulated three hypotheses and utilized the empirical random panel data model. The investigative results affirm the validity of all three hypotheses. Additionally, they provide insights into the relationships among the variables in these hypotheses. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that certain results from the hypotheses contradict the expected theoretical impact. The article suggests that future researchers should delve into additional factors influencing firm performance, recognizing that diverse variables may yield varied outcomes. Broadening the study's scope by incorporating different timeframes and a more diverse array of firms could enhance the overall representativeness of research findings. Expanding this inquiry beyond the energy sector to encompass various industries might offer a comprehensive understanding of how working capital affects firm performance across distinct economic sectors. Subsequent empirical studies are advised to consider global health crises, political events, and other socio-economic developments in the MENA region. Examining events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing geopolitical conflicts like the Russian-Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts could illuminate how such incidents impact of the association among cash reserve, leverage, and company efficacy. To gain deeper insights into the causal distinctions among financial resources, and production form the company, researchers might investigate bidirectional results between each pair of variables using Granger causality tests. The findings from the present study are pertinent for energy sector companies, policymakers, and academia. Future research endeavors could focus on scrutinizing how the implications of operating funds on company procedures change when moderated by additional factors related to macroeconomics, providing practical insights for decision-makers.
本研究深入探讨了杠杆作用的影响,考虑到业务基金的潜在结果,涉及中东和北非地区能源行业的财政影响。研究采用了实证方法,收集了中东和北非地区能源行业 2018 年至 2022 年的二手数据。为此,研究提出了三个假设,并采用了实证随机面板数据模型。研究结果证实了所有三个假设的有效性。此外,研究结果还揭示了这些假设中各变量之间的关系。尤其值得注意的是,假设的某些结果与预期的理论影响相矛盾。文章建议,未来的研究人员应深入研究影响企业绩效的其他因素,同时认识到不同的变量可能会产生不同的结果。扩大研究范围,纳入不同的时间框架和更多样化的企业,可以增强研究结果的整体代表性。将调查范围从能源行业扩大到各行各业,可以全面了解营运资本如何影响不同经济部门的公司业绩。建议后续的实证研究考虑全球健康危机、政治事件以及中东和北非地区的其他社会经济发展。研究 COVID-19 大流行病等事件以及俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突和以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突等持续的地缘政治冲突,可以揭示此类事件如何影响现金储备、杠杆率和公司效益之间的关联。为了更深入地了解财务资源与公司生产之间的因果关系,研究人员可能会使用格兰杰因果检验来调查每对变量之间的双向结果。本研究的结论对能源行业的公司、政策制定者和学术界都有借鉴意义。未来的研究工作可以重点关注运营资金对公司程序的影响在受到与宏观经济相关的其他因素调节时如何变化,从而为决策者提供实用的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Analysing the Life Satisfaction of Risk-averse and Risk-loving Investors in South Africa 分析南非风险规避型投资者和风险偏好型投资者的生活满意度
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15440
PA Shenjere, SJ Ferreira-Schenk
Financial well-being is normally referred to as a person’s contentment with their financial situation. The level of life satisfaction among investors may vary depending on factors such as their risk tolerance and demographics. Demographic variables such as age and gender may influence an investor’s life satisfaction, which, in turn, could influence their financial decisions. Furthermore, an investor’s willingness to take risks can also affect financial decisions, ultimately influencing their life satisfaction. The objective of this paper is to identify and determine the influence of demographics and risk tolerance levels on individual investor life satisfaction. Secondary data were obtained in the private domain from an investment company that collected 1 059 from its client base. The results of this research paper indicated that there is a significant difference between the satisfaction of life of risk-averse and risk-loving investors. Risk-averse investors showed a negative relationship with life satisfaction, while risk-loving investors showed a positive relationship. This meant that the more risk-averse investors were, the lower the life satisfaction, indicating that high life satisfaction was accompanied by high risk. A significant difference was also found between life satisfaction and age and gender. Male investors were more satisfied with their lives than female investors. Older investors experienced higher levels of life satisfaction compared to investors in other age groups. As a result, these findings will make a considerable contribution to the way financial managers create investment portfolios for their clients.
财务状况通常是指一个人对其财务状况的满意程度。投资者的生活满意度可能因其风险承受能力和人口统计学等因素而有所不同。年龄和性别等人口统计学变量可能会影响投资者的生活满意度,进而影响他们的财务决策。此外,投资者承担风险的意愿也会影响财务决策,最终影响他们的生活满意度。本文旨在识别和确定人口统计学和风险承受水平对个人投资者生活满意度的影响。本文从一家投资公司获得了私人领域的二手数据,该公司从其客户群中收集了 1 059 份数据。研究结果表明,风险规避型投资者和风险偏好型投资者的生活满意度存在显著差异。风险规避型投资者与生活满意度呈负相关,而风险厌恶型投资者与生活满意度呈正相关。这意味着风险规避程度越高的投资者,生活满意度越低,表明高生活满意度伴随着高风险。生活满意度与年龄和性别之间也存在明显差异。男性投资者的生活满意度高于女性投资者。与其他年龄组的投资者相比,老年投资者的生活满意度更高。因此,这些研究结果将对理财经理为客户制定投资组合的方式做出重大贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Nexuses between Food, Energy, and Water Consumption on Urban-Rural Income Gap in South-Eastern Asian Countries Using Difference in Difference in Modelling Technique 利用差分模型技术分析食物、能源和水消耗对东南亚国家城乡收入差距的影响
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15923
Khambai Khamjalas
South Asian countries are still battling hunger and poverty, especially in rural areas. Empirical evidence attributes the urban-rural income gap to inadequate infrastructure, such as electricity and water supply. This article uses a difference-in-difference model to examine how emerging trends in Food, Energy, and Water (FEW) resources influence the urban-rural income gap. Using data from 2000 to 2019 from China, Indonesia, and India, the results showed that high food insecurity increases income inequality, whereas electricity supply significantly reduces the income gap. Thus, Asians should ensure a sustainable and equitable distribution of FEW resources to improve agricultural productivity and create jobs.
南亚国家仍在与饥饿和贫困作斗争,尤其是在农村地区。经验证据表明,城乡收入差距归因于电力和供水等基础设施不足。本文采用差分模型来研究粮食、能源和水资源(FEW)的新趋势如何影响城乡收入差距。利用中国、印度尼西亚和印度 2000 年至 2019 年的数据,结果表明,粮食高度不安全会加剧收入不平等,而电力供应则会显著缩小收入差距。因此,亚洲人应确保可持续地公平分配粮食和水利资源,以提高农业生产率并创造就业机会。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of COVID-19 on Banking Sector Returns, Profitability, and Liquidity in South Africa COVID-19 对南非银行业回报、盈利能力和流动性的影响
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.14950
Faeezah Peerbhai, Damien Kunjal
The COVID-19 pandemic, which initially started as a health crisis, has had widespread economic impacts on various industries in the global economy. The banking sector, in particular, was significantly impacted by fiscal and monetary responses which were implemented to reduce the closure of several businesses and stabilize markets. Given that banks are regarded as systemically important financial institutions, this heightened uncertainty increased the possibility of a financial crisis because instabilities in the banking sector could have further detrimental effects on national and global economies. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the South African banking sector. To achieve this objective, the study analysed the returns, profitability, and liquidity of banks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange using a panel regression approach. Together, the results of the study revealed that the profitability and liquidity of banks were negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the excess bank stock returns generated by investors were not affected. These findings may serve as reference to policymakers when developing policies which regulate the banking sector in order to improve performance and ensure liquidity during periods of increased market uncertainty.
COVID-19 大流行最初只是一场健康危机,但已对全球经济的各个行业产生了广泛的经济影响。尤其是银行业,受到财政和货币应对措施的严重影响,这些措施旨在减少一些企业的倒闭,稳定市场。鉴于银行被视为具有系统重要性的金融机构,这种不确定性的加剧增加了发生金融危机的可能性,因为银行业的不稳定会对国家和全球经济产生进一步的不利影响。因此,本研究旨在探讨 COVID-19 大流行对南非银行业的影响。为实现这一目标,本研究采用面板回归法分析了在约翰内斯堡证券交易所上市的银行的回报率、盈利能力和流动性。研究结果表明,银行的盈利能力和流动性受到了 COVID-19 大流行病的负面影响,但投资者获得的银行股票超额收益并未受到影响。这些研究结果可供政策制定者在制定银行业监管政策时参考,以便在市场不确定性增加的时期提高业绩和确保流动性。
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引用次数: 0
Mobile Money Use, Digital Banking Services and Velocity of Money in Ghana 加纳的移动货币使用、数字银行服务和货币速度
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15767
E. Ocansey, P. Dadzie, Nicholas Bamegne Nambie
Investigating the correlation between digital financial services, mobile money usage, and money velocity in Ghana, the study analysed time series data spanning from 1992 to 2022. A composite index was constructed by principal component analysis using data extracted from the world development indicators, with the components mobile money usage, digital financial services, and velocity of money. The estimation utilised an impulse response function and vector error correction model; the results indicated that mobile money, digital financial services, and money velocity are related in both the short and long term. Furthermore, the application of a standard deviation innovation to the velocity of money produced increases of both positive and negative magnitude for all the variables. This suggests that mobile money, digital banking services, and velocity of money in Ghana are interdependent in an asymmetric manner. In order to facilitate an increase in the velocity of money, the research concluded that policymakers should guarantee that a greater proportion of the population has access to mobile money and digital banking services. In addition to promoting mobile money, online banking services, and digital payment methods on purpose, the government should reduce reliance on physical currency and expedite the circulation of money. It is recommended that future longitudinal studies involving African nations employ diverse estimation techniques.
本研究分析了加纳从 1992 年到 2022 年的时间序列数据,调查了数字金融服务、移动货币使用和货币速度之间的相关性。利用从世界发展指标中提取的数据,通过主成分分析法构建了一个综合指数,其中包括移动支付使用率、数字金融服务和货币流通速度。利用脉冲响应函数和向量误差修正模型进行了估算;结果表明,移动支付、数字金融服务和货币速度在短期和长期内都是相关的。此外,将标准偏差创新应用于货币流通速度时,所有变量的增长幅度既有正值也有负值。这表明,加纳的移动支付、数字银行服务和货币流通速度以不对称的方式相互依存。为了促进货币流通速度的提高,研究得出结论,政策制定者应保证更多的人口能够使用移动货币和数字银行服务。除了有目的地推广移动支付、网上银行服务和数字支付方式外,政府还应减少对实物货币的依赖,加快货币流通。建议今后涉及非洲国家的纵向研究采用多种估算技术。
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引用次数: 0
A Panel-corrected Standard Error (PCSE) Framework to Estimate Capital Structure and Banking Performance within the Tunisian Context 估计突尼斯资本结构和银行业绩效的面板校正标准误差 (PCSE) 框架
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15793
Manel Zidi, Helmi Hamdi
The objective of this article is to empirically examine the effect of financing structure on the market share of banks, and their performance in Tunisian banks. To this end, we gathered financial statements of ten commercial banks over the period 2012-2019, and we employed the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) regression. The empirical results show that the bank capital structure measured by the equity to total assets ratio negatively affects bank performance while the debt to total assets ratio can be a robust and positive driver of bank performance. Through this research, we recommend to Tunisian commercial banks to reduce their operating costs through a better management of their resources, and to find cheaper sources of financing such as increasing equity. We also recommend to Tunisian commercial banks to diversify further their revenues in order to enhance their performance and to generate more profits.
本文旨在实证研究融资结构对银行市场份额的影响以及突尼斯银行的绩效。为此,我们收集了十家商业银行在 2012-2019 年期间的财务报表,并采用了面板校正标准误差(PCSE)回归法。实证结果表明,以股权与总资产比率衡量的银行资本结构会对银行绩效产生负面影响,而债务与总资产比率则会对银行绩效产生稳健而积极的推动作用。通过这项研究,我们建议突尼斯商业银行通过更好地管理资源来降低运营成本,并寻找更廉价的融资渠道,如增加股本。我们还建议突尼斯商业银行进一步实现收入多元化,以提高业绩并创造更多利润。
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引用次数: 0
Pension Management Challenges and Retirement Life Experiences: A Policy Implication 养老金管理挑战与退休生活体验:政策含义
Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.14777
Samson Adewumi
Remarking on the discourse of pension management in Nigeria, scarce research attention can be traced to the understanding of pension management challenges and life after retirement experience through the prism of policy implication. To address this gap, the study assesses the pattern of pensioners’ life after retirement, the arrays of pension management challenges, and appropriate policy implications for effective pension management. A mixed-method research approach was employed. 345 retirees were randomly recruited and administered a questionnaire, and 18 purposively semi-structured interviews were conducted with the Federal Parastatals and Private Sector Pensioners Association of Nigeria. Quantitative data were analyzed with the frequency distribution and the Q-Q plot to determine the normal probability plot, while the NVivo (12) qualitative software was used for the identification of themes and sub-themes from the transcribed data. Findings revealed prolonged health challenges, poverty, and abrupt pension payment as life after retirement experiences. Verification bottleneck, poor monitoring and evaluation efforts, and administrative incompetency were issues around pension management challenges. The implication includes addressing political interference in pension management and administration, safeguarding retirees’ savings through legal commitment, and a call for employers’ contributions. The study recommends that the National Pension Commission become more responsive in its role of providing quality pension service, especially in terms of quality leadership, monitoring, and evaluation of Pension Fund Administrators.
关于尼日利亚养老金管理的论述,很少有研究关注通过政策影响的棱镜来了解养老金管理的挑战和退休后的生活经历。为了填补这一空白,本研究评估了领取养老金者退休后的生活模式、养老金管理面临的一系列挑战以及对有效养老金管理的适当政策影响。本研究采用了混合方法研究法。随机招募了 345 名退休人员并对其进行了问卷调查,还与尼日利亚联邦半官方机构和私营部门养老金领取者协会进行了 18 次有针对性的半结构化访谈。定量数据使用频率分布和 Q-Q 图进行分析,以确定正态概率图,同时使用 NVivo(12)定性软件从转录数据中确定主题和次主题。研究结果表明,长期的健康挑战、贫困和突然的养老金支付是退休后的生活经历。核查瓶颈、监测和评估工作不力以及行政管理不力是养老金管理面临的挑战。其影响包括解决养老金管理和行政方面的政治干预,通过法律承诺保障退休人员的储蓄,以及呼吁雇主缴费。研究建议国家养老金委员会在提供优质养老金服务方面发挥更加积极的作用,特别是在养老金基金管理者的优质领导、监督和评估方面。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
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