Soumya Ranjan Sethi, Dushyant Mahadik, Rajkiran V. Bilolikar
Due to the growing complexity and unpredictability of contemporary markets as evidenced by the financial crisis of the past ten years, the field of financial distress prediction (FDP) research is receiving more attention. For creditors, investors, and other stakeholders to make well-informed decisions on their financial relationships with a given entity, financial distress prediction is essential. This paper identified the risk indicators that are the cause of financial distress and latest tools and methods to predict financial distress with identifying the risk management strategies for eradicate the distress condition. In this context, this study explores the landscape of the literature published in this area. We have used systematic and bibliometric approach for studying the existing literature. For the study, we have collected articles from the Scopus database for the period 1985 to 2022. Science mapping technique has been used for the analysis data has been conducted with the help of Vosviewer and Biblioshiny software. Various important component of a literature review like most relevant authors, most relevant sources, keywords co-occurrence network, thematic analysis and others have been explored. The study will help the scholars and future researchers in getting a comprehensive understanding and insights in the concerned field and add to the existing body of literature.
{"title":"Exploring Trends and Advancements in Financial Distress Prediction Research: A Bibliometric Study","authors":"Soumya Ranjan Sethi, Dushyant Mahadik, Rajkiran V. Bilolikar","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15472","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the growing complexity and unpredictability of contemporary markets as evidenced by the financial crisis of the past ten years, the field of financial distress prediction (FDP) research is receiving more attention. For creditors, investors, and other stakeholders to make well-informed decisions on their financial relationships with a given entity, financial distress prediction is essential. This paper identified the risk indicators that are the cause of financial distress and latest tools and methods to predict financial distress with identifying the risk management strategies for eradicate the distress condition. In this context, this study explores the landscape of the literature published in this area. We have used systematic and bibliometric approach for studying the existing literature. For the study, we have collected articles from the Scopus database for the period 1985 to 2022. Science mapping technique has been used for the analysis data has been conducted with the help of Vosviewer and Biblioshiny software. Various important component of a literature review like most relevant authors, most relevant sources, keywords co-occurrence network, thematic analysis and others have been explored. The study will help the scholars and future researchers in getting a comprehensive understanding and insights in the concerned field and add to the existing body of literature.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"36 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140502216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Egypt has been exposed to two recent shocks: the global financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. Though the origin and the implications of the two shocks are quite different, they bear some similarities in terms of the sharp decline in global economic growth and negative implication on the Egyptian economy. The present study attempts to assess the cyclicality of monetary policy in Egypt during the two crises. To this end, both descriptive and econometric techniques are employed in this study to reveal the cyclicality of monetary policy. On the descriptive side, the correlation between the cyclical component of policy rate and that of real GDP is calculated. Moreover, both an ARDL and NARDL approach are estimated to derive the augmented Taylor rule for the cyclical component of policy rate. Two dummy variables reflecting the two crises along with their interaction with output gap are incorporated in the model to disentangle the impact of the two crises upon monetary policy cyclicality. The study concludes that monetary policy in Egypt is more acyclical and that its response to changes in output gap is statistically insignificant, during both normal times and crisis time.
{"title":"Examining Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Egypt during Crisis Time: Global Financial Crisis versus COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Hebatalla Atef Emam","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15473","url":null,"abstract":"Egypt has been exposed to two recent shocks: the global financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. Though the origin and the implications of the two shocks are quite different, they bear some similarities in terms of the sharp decline in global economic growth and negative implication on the Egyptian economy. The present study attempts to assess the cyclicality of monetary policy in Egypt during the two crises. To this end, both descriptive and econometric techniques are employed in this study to reveal the cyclicality of monetary policy. On the descriptive side, the correlation between the cyclical component of policy rate and that of real GDP is calculated. Moreover, both an ARDL and NARDL approach are estimated to derive the augmented Taylor rule for the cyclical component of policy rate. Two dummy variables reflecting the two crises along with their interaction with output gap are incorporated in the model to disentangle the impact of the two crises upon monetary policy cyclicality. The study concludes that monetary policy in Egypt is more acyclical and that its response to changes in output gap is statistically insignificant, during both normal times and crisis time.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"9 30","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139523842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clement Nangpiire, Francis Oheneba Gyebi, T. Nassè
This study empirically examines the predictive relationship between sustainable procurement practices and its dimensions (staff competence, sustainable IT infrastructure and top management support) and the performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Using the explanatory research design, structured questionnaires were administered to 317 managers and owners of selected SMEs. The Structured equation modeling (SEM) via Smart PLS 4.0 was used for analyzing and testing the hypotheses. The findings show that top management support and sustainable IT infrastructure have moderately significant and positive impact on SMEs performance whilst staff competence did not have any statistically significant effect on SMEs performance. Even though staff competence did not have a statistically significant effect on SME performance in this context, managers and owners should not avoid training and developing staff competence as it may translate in affecting other aspects of business operation not accounted for by SME performance. Through the lens of the institutional theory, resource-based theory and the theory of altruism, the study proves the predictive relationship between sustainable procurement practices and small and medium enterprises in Ghana.
{"title":"Sustainable Procurement Practices and Organisational Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in Ghana","authors":"Clement Nangpiire, Francis Oheneba Gyebi, T. Nassè","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15444","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000This study empirically examines the predictive relationship between sustainable procurement practices and its dimensions (staff competence, sustainable IT infrastructure and top management support) and the performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Using the explanatory research design, structured questionnaires were administered to 317 managers and owners of selected SMEs. The Structured equation modeling (SEM) via Smart PLS 4.0 was used for analyzing and testing the hypotheses. The findings show that top management support and sustainable IT infrastructure have moderately significant and positive impact on SMEs performance whilst staff competence did not have any statistically significant effect on SMEs performance. Even though staff competence did not have a statistically significant effect on SME performance in this context, managers and owners should not avoid training and developing staff competence as it may translate in affecting other aspects of business operation not accounted for by SME performance. Through the lens of the institutional theory, resource-based theory and the theory of altruism, the study proves the predictive relationship between sustainable procurement practices and small and medium enterprises in Ghana.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"1 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139523991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Uplifting economic growth is crucial for the sustained development and prosperity of an economy. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of institutional quality, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, and domestic investment on the economic growth of Latin America from 1996 to 2021. The study utilizes a combination of panel unit root testing, cross-sectional dependency testing, panel cointegration testing, and the Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PARDL) technique to shed light on the dynamics of the region's economic development. The panel cointegration techniques confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the selected variables over the chosen time frame. The PARDL technique is employed to determine the short- and long-run impact of institutional quality, FDI, inflation, and local investment on the economic growth of Latin America. The results show that institutional quality, FDI, and local investment have a significant positive impact on the economic growth of Latin America, while inflation has a negative impact. These findings suggest that policymakers in Latin America should prioritize improving institutional quality, encouraging FDI, and promoting local investment while controlling inflation. A comprehensive economic strategy that considers both short- and long-term dynamics is necessary, highlighting the importance of an integrated approach that recognizes their interaction. The study recommends improving the quality of institutions, especially political stability, to attract FDI and encourage domestic investment by promoting a business-friendly environment, guaranteeing financial accessibility, encouraging innovations, promoting regional and global integration, controlling inflation, reducing income inequality, and raising the standard of living.
{"title":"Unveiling the Interplay of Institutional Quality, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation and Domestic Investment on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Latin America","authors":"M. Husnain, Ping Guo, Guoqin Pan, Matarr Manjang","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15580","url":null,"abstract":"Uplifting economic growth is crucial for the sustained development and prosperity of an economy. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of institutional quality, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, and domestic investment on the economic growth of Latin America from 1996 to 2021. The study utilizes a combination of panel unit root testing, cross-sectional dependency testing, panel cointegration testing, and the Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PARDL) technique to shed light on the dynamics of the region's economic development. The panel cointegration techniques confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the selected variables over the chosen time frame. The PARDL technique is employed to determine the short- and long-run impact of institutional quality, FDI, inflation, and local investment on the economic growth of Latin America. The results show that institutional quality, FDI, and local investment have a significant positive impact on the economic growth of Latin America, while inflation has a negative impact. These findings suggest that policymakers in Latin America should prioritize improving institutional quality, encouraging FDI, and promoting local investment while controlling inflation. A comprehensive economic strategy that considers both short- and long-term dynamics is necessary, highlighting the importance of an integrated approach that recognizes their interaction. The study recommends improving the quality of institutions, especially political stability, to attract FDI and encourage domestic investment by promoting a business-friendly environment, guaranteeing financial accessibility, encouraging innovations, promoting regional and global integration, controlling inflation, reducing income inequality, and raising the standard of living.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"4 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139524085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the impact of bank-level Financial Technology (Fintech) innovations on banks’ performance in the Kingdom of Bahrain from 2012-2021. Annual data of banks listed in Bahrain’s Bourse has been utilized to achieve this objective. In addition, bank-level FinTech indices have been constructed by a textual analysis method that assesses input dimensions through 32 keywords under four categories, including artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and big data; FinTech output dimension is evaluated through payment and settlement, resource allocation, risk management, and channel construction technology. Using different panel data estimators, such as pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and panel-corrected standard errors linear regression, results show that FinTech innovations increase banks’ performance. In addition, the findings demonstrate that banks' capital adequacy ratio, earnings ability, total assets, and annual GDP growth rate also significantly positively impact bank performance. Years in business have a significant adverse effect on bank performance. Interestingly, conventional and state-owned banks have a higher positive impact on returns on assets (ROA) than Islamic and privately owned banks. Policymakers and investors should pay close attention to facilitating ongoing FinTech innovations in the Kingdom of Bahrain to create opportunities and build a more inclusive and efficient financial sector.
本研究探讨了 2012-2021 年间银行层面的金融科技（Fintech）创新对巴林王国银行业绩的影响。为实现这一目标，本研究采用了巴林证券交易所上市银行的年度数据。此外，还通过文本分析方法构建了银行层面的金融科技指数，该方法通过人工智能、区块链、云计算和大数据等四个类别下的 32 个关键词评估输入维度；通过支付结算、资源分配、风险管理和渠道建设技术评估金融科技输出维度。利用不同的面板数据估计方法，如集合 OLS、固定效应、随机效应和面板校正标准误差线性回归，结果表明金融科技创新提高了银行的绩效。此外，研究结果表明，银行的资本充足率、盈利能力、总资产和 GDP 年增长率也会对银行绩效产生显著的正向影响。经营年限对银行绩效有明显的不利影响。有趣的是，传统银行和国有银行对资产回报率（ROA）的积极影响要高于伊斯兰银行和私有银行。政策制定者和投资者应密切关注促进巴林王国正在进行的金融科技创新，以创造机会并建立一个更具包容性和效率的金融部门。
{"title":"The Impact of Fintech Innovation on Bank’s Performance: Evidence from the Kingdom of Bahrain","authors":"Hanan Naser, Gavkhar Sultanova, Shamsun Nahar","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15512","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of bank-level Financial Technology (Fintech) innovations on banks’ performance in the Kingdom of Bahrain from 2012-2021. Annual data of banks listed in Bahrain’s Bourse has been utilized to achieve this objective. In addition, bank-level FinTech indices have been constructed by a textual analysis method that assesses input dimensions through 32 keywords under four categories, including artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and big data; FinTech output dimension is evaluated through payment and settlement, resource allocation, risk management, and channel construction technology. Using different panel data estimators, such as pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and panel-corrected standard errors linear regression, results show that FinTech innovations increase banks’ performance. In addition, the findings demonstrate that banks' capital adequacy ratio, earnings ability, total assets, and annual GDP growth rate also significantly positively impact bank performance. Years in business have a significant adverse effect on bank performance. Interestingly, conventional and state-owned banks have a higher positive impact on returns on assets (ROA) than Islamic and privately owned banks. Policymakers and investors should pay close attention to facilitating ongoing FinTech innovations in the Kingdom of Bahrain to create opportunities and build a more inclusive and efficient financial sector.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"53 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139611539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of corporate governance and compliance with Shariah on internal controls over financial reporting. It also examines the moderating role of Shariah compliance on the relationship between corporate governance structures and internal reporting controls. Ordinary least square (OLS) models are applied to 94 listed Jordanian companies on Amman Stock Exchange over the period 2015-2021. The empirical evidence shows board size, board meetings, Shariah compliance, and auditor type have a negative impact on material weaknesses in internal controls (MWIC). Second, unitary leadership, where the same individual is both the chair and CEO, is positively correlated to MWIC. Third, Shariah compliance strengthens the effect of board meetings, suggesting that Shariah compliance and good corporate governance mechanisms reinforce each other to ensure higher-quality internal financial reporting controls.
{"title":"The Impact of Board of Directors and Islamic Shariah on Company Internal Control: Evidence from Jordan","authors":"I. Amayreh, Husam Ananzeh, Abdullah Salem Bugshan","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15243","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of corporate governance and compliance with Shariah on internal controls over financial reporting. It also examines the moderating role of Shariah compliance on the relationship between corporate governance structures and internal reporting controls. Ordinary least square (OLS) models are applied to 94 listed Jordanian companies on Amman Stock Exchange over the period 2015-2021. The empirical evidence shows board size, board meetings, Shariah compliance, and auditor type have a negative impact on material weaknesses in internal controls (MWIC). Second, unitary leadership, where the same individual is both the chair and CEO, is positively correlated to MWIC. Third, Shariah compliance strengthens the effect of board meetings, suggesting that Shariah compliance and good corporate governance mechanisms reinforce each other to ensure higher-quality internal financial reporting controls. \u0000","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"6 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139524178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Ghanaian economy has been faced with persistent fiscal deficits over the years and this affects other macroeconomic variables like inflation. This study therefore empirically examines the effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Ghana. The study deployed a quantitative research design technique, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, and vector error correction models using annual data spanning 1976 to 2019 with 44 observations. Findings revealed that there is a significant and negative short and long-run relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Ghana, with unidirectional causality running from inflation to fiscal deficit. The study recommends that the Government of Ghana should endeavour to finance fiscal deficits mostly through external sources and non-banking methods like the issuance of bonds at the foreign financial market since non-banking borrowing has low inflationary effects.
{"title":"Fiscal Deficits and Inflation in Ghana","authors":"Solomon Hanson Obeng, A. Abotsi","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15116","url":null,"abstract":"The Ghanaian economy has been faced with persistent fiscal deficits over the years and this affects other macroeconomic variables like inflation. This study therefore empirically examines the effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Ghana. The study deployed a quantitative research design technique, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, and vector error correction models using annual data spanning 1976 to 2019 with 44 observations. Findings revealed that there is a significant and negative short and long-run relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Ghana, with unidirectional causality running from inflation to fiscal deficit. The study recommends that the Government of Ghana should endeavour to finance fiscal deficits mostly through external sources and non-banking methods like the issuance of bonds at the foreign financial market since non-banking borrowing has low inflationary effects.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140502332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Manurung, Nera Marinda Machdar, Jadongan Sijabat, Amran Manurung
This research aims to explore for portfolio construction using vary method which is Markowitz, Elton Gruber, Equal Weighted, Market Cap, and Safety-First Criterion (Roy and Kataoka Criterion). Data was used monthly data of Kompas 100 Index for period of 2015 to June 2023. The result found that 53 stocks for using Elton Gruber, Equal weighted, market capitalization, Markowitz Method. There is no difference average return for portfolio of Elton Gruber, Equal weighted, market capitalization, Markowitz Method, The research's findings are as follows Roy and Kataoka as representative Safety-first criterion could be used to construct portfolio with determining achievement of minimum return of 0.797% per month with risk premium of 0.2% . Portfolio return using Roy criterion is vary from 3.973% to 13.397% per month and Kataoka criterion has return vary from 8.861% to 15.48% for equal weighted. Then the equal weighted portfolio return is highest than market capitalization weighted Portfolio return. Elton Gruber method also used to construct portfolio, then this method has highest cumulative return compared to others methods. The Market shock affected all portfolio return and Interest rate has affected portfolio return for equal weighted and Elton Gruber Method. Pandemic Era affect portfolio return for Market Capitalization Weighted portfolio.
{"title":"The Construction of a Portfolio Using Varying Methods and the Effects of Variables on Portfolio Return","authors":"A. Manurung, Nera Marinda Machdar, Jadongan Sijabat, Amran Manurung","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15314","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to explore for portfolio construction using vary method which is Markowitz, Elton Gruber, Equal Weighted, Market Cap, and Safety-First Criterion (Roy and Kataoka Criterion). Data was used monthly data of Kompas 100 Index for period of 2015 to June 2023. The result found that 53 stocks for using Elton Gruber, Equal weighted, market capitalization, Markowitz Method. There is no difference average return for portfolio of Elton Gruber, Equal weighted, market capitalization, Markowitz Method, The research's findings are as follows Roy and Kataoka as representative Safety-first criterion could be used to construct portfolio with determining achievement of minimum return of 0.797% per month with risk premium of 0.2% . Portfolio return using Roy criterion is vary from 3.973% to 13.397% per month and Kataoka criterion has return vary from 8.861% to 15.48% for equal weighted. Then the equal weighted portfolio return is highest than market capitalization weighted Portfolio return. Elton Gruber method also used to construct portfolio, then this method has highest cumulative return compared to others methods. The Market shock affected all portfolio return and Interest rate has affected portfolio return for equal weighted and Elton Gruber Method. Pandemic Era affect portfolio return for Market Capitalization Weighted portfolio.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"63 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140502006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper examines the performance and the challenges faced by SMEs in Oman during Covid-19. The data was collected through primary and secondary sources. A questionnaire of 100 respondents was used. Descriptive analysis and chi-squared test have been employed in the data analysis. The main findings of the study showed despite the adverse effect of the pandame, the SMEs in Oman have performed well and indicated a resilient and adaptable strategy to cope wth the virus. The reason for this could be attributed to their ability to quickly transition to remote work and online operations. During such a challenging period, some businesses managed to thrive due to their ability to identify opportunities and leverage them. Moreover, the study revealed that financial stability and preparedness are key to navigating the pandemic's uncertainties, as businesses focus on risk management, budget planning, and saving money. In response to unexpected disruptions, businesses have become more cautious and strategic in their financial decisions. SME resilience against future crises is enhanced as a result of SMEs adopting more prudent financial practices. The key challenges faced by SMEs during Covid-19 included delivery delays, reduced income for consumers, and regulation changes. The SMEs in Oman devised severalrisk management strategies, such as maintaining backup plans and setting aside funds, reflect a forward-thinking approach. The findings indicate that businesses in Oman are actively seeking ways to minimize disruptions to their operations and mitigate potential risks. Long-term resilience can be built by such strategic thinking.
{"title":"How was the SME’s Performance in Oman during Covid-19?","authors":"Atallah Firas Al Taha","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15380","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the performance and the challenges faced by SMEs in Oman during Covid-19. The data was collected through primary and secondary sources. A questionnaire of 100 respondents was used. Descriptive analysis and chi-squared test have been employed in the data analysis. The main findings of the study showed despite the adverse effect of the pandame, the SMEs in Oman have performed well and indicated a resilient and adaptable strategy to cope wth the virus. The reason for this could be attributed to their ability to quickly transition to remote work and online operations. During such a challenging period, some businesses managed to thrive due to their ability to identify opportunities and leverage them. Moreover, the study revealed that financial stability and preparedness are key to navigating the pandemic's uncertainties, as businesses focus on risk management, budget planning, and saving money. In response to unexpected disruptions, businesses have become more cautious and strategic in their financial decisions. SME resilience against future crises is enhanced as a result of SMEs adopting more prudent financial practices. The key challenges faced by SMEs during Covid-19 included delivery delays, reduced income for consumers, and regulation changes. The SMEs in Oman devised severalrisk management strategies, such as maintaining backup plans and setting aside funds, reflect a forward-thinking approach. The findings indicate that businesses in Oman are actively seeking ways to minimize disruptions to their operations and mitigate potential risks. Long-term resilience can be built by such strategic thinking.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"15 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139524832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss a portfolio may incur at a given confidence level over a specified time, while expected shortfall (ES) determines the probability weighted losses greater than VaR. VaR has recently been replaced by (but remains a crucial step in the computation of) ES by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) as the primary metric for banks to forecast market risk and allocate the relevant amount of regulatory market risk capital. The aim of the study is to introduce a more accurate approach of measuring VaR and hence ES determined using loss forecast accuracy. VaR (hence ES) is unobservable and depends on subjective measures like volatility, more accurate (loss forecast) estimates of both are constantly sought. Modelling the volatility of asset returns as a stochastic process, so a Kalman filter (which distinguishes and isolates noise from data using Bayesian statistics and variance reduction) is used to estimate both market risk metrics. A variety of volatility estimates, including the Kalman filter's recursive approach, are used to measure VaR and ES. Loss forecast accuracy is then computed and compared. The Kalman filter produces the most accurate loss forecast estimates in periods of both calm and volatile markets. The Kalman filter provides the most accurate forecasts of future market risk losses compared with standard methods which results in more accurate provision of regulatory market risk capital.
风险价值（VaR）估算投资组合在特定时间内特定置信水平下可能产生的最大损失，而预期缺口（ES）则确定大于风险价值的概率加权损失。巴塞尔银行监管委员会（BCBS）最近用 ES 取代了 VaR（但 ES 仍是计算 ES 的关键步骤），作为银行预测市场风险和分配相关监管市场风险资本的主要指标。本研究的目的是引入一种更准确的方法来衡量风险价值，进而利用损失预测的准确性来确定 ES。风险价值率（进而 ES）是不可观测的，并依赖于波动率等主观衡量标准，因此人们一直在寻求对二者进行更准确的（损失预测）估算。将资产收益的波动率建模为一个随机过程，因此使用卡尔曼滤波器（利用贝叶斯统计和方差缩小从数据中区分和隔离噪音）来估算这两个市场风险指标。各种波动率估算，包括卡尔曼滤波器的递归方法，都被用来衡量 VaR 和 ES。然后计算并比较损失预测的准确性。在市场平静和波动时期，卡尔曼滤波器都能得出最准确的损失预测估计值。与标准方法相比，卡尔曼滤波法能最准确地预测未来市场风险损失，从而更准确地提供监管市场风险资本。
{"title":"Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall: A Kalman Filter Approach","authors":"Max van der Lecq, G. Vuuren","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.15184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15184","url":null,"abstract":"Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss a portfolio may incur at a given confidence level over a specified time, while expected shortfall (ES) determines the probability weighted losses greater than VaR. VaR has recently been replaced by (but remains a crucial step in the computation of) ES by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) as the primary metric for banks to forecast market risk and allocate the relevant amount of regulatory market risk capital. The aim of the study is to introduce a more accurate approach of measuring VaR and hence ES determined using loss forecast accuracy. VaR (hence ES) is unobservable and depends on subjective measures like volatility, more accurate (loss forecast) estimates of both are constantly sought. Modelling the volatility of asset returns as a stochastic process, so a Kalman filter (which distinguishes and isolates noise from data using Bayesian statistics and variance reduction) is used to estimate both market risk metrics. A variety of volatility estimates, including the Kalman filter's recursive approach, are used to measure VaR and ES. Loss forecast accuracy is then computed and compared. The Kalman filter produces the most accurate loss forecast estimates in periods of both calm and volatile markets. The Kalman filter provides the most accurate forecasts of future market risk losses compared with standard methods which results in more accurate provision of regulatory market risk capital.","PeriodicalId":30329,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues","volume":"8 49","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139523915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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