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Exploring Trends and Advancements in Financial Distress Prediction Research: A Bibliometric Study 探索金融困境预测研究的趋势和进展:文献计量学研究
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15472
Soumya Ranjan Sethi, Dushyant Mahadik, Rajkiran V. Bilolikar
Due to the growing complexity and unpredictability of contemporary markets as evidenced by the financial crisis of the past ten years, the field of financial distress prediction (FDP) research is receiving more attention. For creditors, investors, and other stakeholders to make well-informed decisions on their financial relationships with a given entity, financial distress prediction is essential. This paper identified the risk indicators that are the cause of financial distress and latest tools and methods to predict financial distress with identifying the risk management strategies for eradicate the distress condition. In this context, this study explores the landscape of the literature published in this area.  We have used systematic and bibliometric approach for studying the existing literature. For the study, we have collected articles from the Scopus database for the period 1985 to 2022. Science mapping technique has been used for the analysis data has been conducted with the help of Vosviewer and Biblioshiny software. Various important component of a literature review like most relevant authors, most relevant sources, keywords co-occurrence network, thematic analysis and others have been explored. The study will help the scholars and future researchers in getting a comprehensive understanding and insights in the concerned field and add to the existing body of literature.
过去十年的金融危机证明,当代市场的复杂性和不可预测性与日俱增,因此财务困境预测(FDP)研究领域受到越来越多的关注。为了让债权人、投资者和其他利益相关者就其与特定实体的财务关系做出明智决策,财务困境预测至关重要。本文确定了导致财务困境的风险指标,以及预测财务困境的最新工具和方法,并确定了消除困境的风险管理策略。在此背景下,本研究对该领域已发表的文献进行了梳理。 我们采用了系统的文献计量学方法来研究现有文献。在研究中,我们从 Scopus 数据库中收集了 1985 年至 2022 年期间的文章。在 Vosviewer 和 Biblioshiny 软件的帮助下,我们使用了科学绘图技术进行数据分析。研究探讨了文献综述的各种重要组成部分,如最相关作者、最相关来源、关键词共现网络、主题分析等。这项研究将有助于学者和未来的研究人员对相关领域有一个全面的了解和洞察,并为现有的文献库增添新的内容。
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引用次数: 0
Examining Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Egypt during Crisis Time: Global Financial Crisis versus COVID-19 Pandemic 考察危机时期埃及的货币政策周期性:全球金融危机与 COVID-19 大流行
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15473
Hebatalla Atef Emam
Egypt has been exposed to two recent shocks: the global financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. Though the origin and the implications of the two shocks are quite different, they bear some similarities in terms of the sharp decline in global economic growth and negative implication on the Egyptian economy. The present study attempts to assess the cyclicality of monetary policy in Egypt during the two crises. To this end, both descriptive and econometric techniques are employed in this study to reveal the cyclicality of monetary policy. On the descriptive side, the correlation between the cyclical component of policy rate and that of real GDP is calculated. Moreover, both an ARDL and NARDL approach are estimated to derive the augmented Taylor rule for the cyclical component of policy rate. Two dummy variables reflecting the two crises along with their interaction with output gap are incorporated in the model to disentangle the impact of the two crises upon monetary policy cyclicality.  The study concludes that monetary policy in Egypt is more acyclical and that its response to changes in output gap is statistically insignificant, during both normal times and crisis time.
埃及最近遭受了两次冲击:2008 年的全球金融危机和 2020 年的 COVID-19 大流行病。虽然这两次冲击的起源和影响迥然不同,但在全球经济增长急剧下降和对埃及经济的负面影响方面却有一些相似之处。本研究试图评估两次危机期间埃及货币政策的周期性。为此,本研究采用了描述性和计量经济学技术来揭示货币政策的周期性。在描述方面,计算了政策利率的周期性部分与实际 GDP 的周期性部分之间的相关性。此外,还估算了 ARDL 和 NARDL 方法,以得出政策利率周期部分的增强泰勒规则。模型中纳入了两个反映两次危机的虚拟变量及其与产出缺口的交互作用,以区分两次危机对货币政策周期性的影响。 研究得出结论,在正常时期和危机时期,埃及的货币政策周期性更强,其对产出缺口变化的反应在统计上并不显著。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable Procurement Practices and Organisational Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in Ghana 加纳中小企业的可持续采购实践与组织绩效
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15444
Clement Nangpiire, Francis Oheneba Gyebi, T. Nassè
This study empirically examines the predictive relationship between sustainable procurement practices and its dimensions (staff competence, sustainable IT infrastructure and top management support) and the performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Using the explanatory research design, structured questionnaires were administered to 317 managers and owners of selected SMEs. The Structured equation modeling (SEM) via Smart PLS 4.0 was used for analyzing and testing the hypotheses. The findings show that top management support and sustainable IT infrastructure have moderately significant and positive impact on SMEs performance whilst staff competence did not have any statistically significant effect on SMEs performance. Even though staff competence did not have a statistically significant effect on SME performance in this context, managers and owners should not avoid training and developing staff competence as it may translate in affecting other aspects of business operation not accounted for by SME performance. Through the lens of the institutional theory, resource-based theory and the theory of altruism, the study proves the predictive relationship between sustainable procurement practices and small and medium enterprises in Ghana.
本研究以实证研究的方式探讨了可持续采购实践及其维度(员工能力、可持续信息技术基础设施和高层管理支持)与中小型企业(SMEs)绩效之间的预测关系。本研究采用解释性研究设计,对 317 家选定中小企业的经理和所有者进行了结构化问卷调查。通过 Smart PLS 4.0 建立的结构方程模型(SEM)对假设进行了分析和检验。研究结果表明,高层管理人员的支持和可持续的信息技术基础设施对中小企业的绩效有中等程度的积极影响,而员工能力对中小企业的绩效没有任何统计学意义上的影响。尽管在这种情况下,员工能力对中小型企业绩效的影响在统计学上并不显著,但管理者和所有者不应避免培训和发展员工能力,因为这可能会影响到中小型企业绩效所不包括的企业运营的其他方面。通过制度理论、基于资源的理论和利他主义理论的视角,本研究证明了可持续采购实践与加纳中小企业之间的预测关系。
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引用次数: 0
Unveiling the Interplay of Institutional Quality, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation and Domestic Investment on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Latin America 揭示制度质量、外国直接投资、通货膨胀和国内投资对经济增长的相互作用:拉丁美洲的经验证据
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15580
M. Husnain, Ping Guo, Guoqin Pan, Matarr Manjang
Uplifting economic growth is crucial for the sustained development and prosperity of an economy. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of institutional quality, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, and domestic investment on the economic growth of Latin America from 1996 to 2021. The study utilizes a combination of panel unit root testing, cross-sectional dependency testing, panel cointegration testing, and the Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PARDL) technique to shed light on the dynamics of the region's economic development. The panel cointegration techniques confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the selected variables over the chosen time frame. The PARDL technique is employed to determine the short- and long-run impact of institutional quality, FDI, inflation, and local investment on the economic growth of Latin America. The results show that institutional quality, FDI, and local investment have a significant positive impact on the economic growth of Latin America, while inflation has a negative impact. These findings suggest that policymakers in Latin America should prioritize improving institutional quality, encouraging FDI, and promoting local investment while controlling inflation. A comprehensive economic strategy that considers both short- and long-term dynamics is necessary, highlighting the importance of an integrated approach that recognizes their interaction. The study recommends improving the quality of institutions, especially political stability, to attract FDI and encourage domestic investment by promoting a business-friendly environment, guaranteeing financial accessibility, encouraging innovations, promoting regional and global integration, controlling inflation, reducing income inequality, and raising the standard of living.
提升经济增长对于一个经济体的持续发展和繁荣至关重要。本研究的主要目的是探讨 1996 年至 2021 年制度质量、外国直接投资(FDI)、通货膨胀和国内投资对拉丁美洲经济增长的影响。研究综合运用了面板单位根检验、横截面依存检验、面板协整检验和面板自回归分配滞后(PARDL)技术,以揭示该地区经济发展的动态变化。面板协整技术证实了所选变量之间在所选时间段内存在长期关系。PARDL 技术用于确定制度质量、外国直接投资、通货膨胀和当地投资对拉丁美洲经济增长的短期和长期影响。结果表明,制度质量、外国直接投资和本地投资对拉丁美洲的经济增长有显著的积极影响,而通货膨胀则有消极影响。这些研究结果表明,拉丁美洲的政策制定者应在控制通货膨胀的同时,优先提高制度质量、鼓励外国直接投资和促进本地投资。有必要制定一项同时考虑短期和长期动态的综合经济战略,这凸显了认识到二者相互作用的综合方法的重要性。研究建议提高机构质量,特别是政治稳定性,以吸引外国直接投资,并通过促进有利于商业的环境、保证金融可得性、鼓励创新、促进区域和全球一体化、控制通货膨胀、减少收入不平等和提高生活水平来鼓励国内投资。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Fintech Innovation on Bank’s Performance: Evidence from the Kingdom of Bahrain 金融科技创新对银行业绩的影响:巴林王国的证据
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15512
Hanan Naser, Gavkhar Sultanova, Shamsun Nahar
This study investigates the impact of bank-level Financial Technology (Fintech) innovations on banks’ performance in the Kingdom of Bahrain from 2012-2021. Annual data of banks listed in Bahrain’s Bourse has been utilized to achieve this objective. In addition, bank-level FinTech indices have been constructed by a textual analysis method that assesses input dimensions through 32 keywords under four categories, including artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and big data; FinTech output dimension is evaluated through payment and settlement, resource allocation, risk management, and channel construction technology. Using different panel data estimators, such as pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and panel-corrected standard errors linear regression, results show that FinTech innovations increase banks’ performance. In addition, the findings demonstrate that banks' capital adequacy ratio, earnings ability, total assets, and annual GDP growth rate also significantly positively impact bank performance. Years in business have a significant adverse effect on bank performance. Interestingly, conventional and state-owned banks have a higher positive impact on returns on assets (ROA) than Islamic and privately owned banks. Policymakers and investors should pay close attention to facilitating ongoing FinTech innovations in the Kingdom of Bahrain to create opportunities and build a more inclusive and efficient financial sector.
本研究探讨了 2012-2021 年间银行层面的金融科技(Fintech)创新对巴林王国银行业绩的影响。为实现这一目标,本研究采用了巴林证券交易所上市银行的年度数据。此外,还通过文本分析方法构建了银行层面的金融科技指数,该方法通过人工智能、区块链、云计算和大数据等四个类别下的 32 个关键词评估输入维度;通过支付结算、资源分配、风险管理和渠道建设技术评估金融科技输出维度。利用不同的面板数据估计方法,如集合 OLS、固定效应、随机效应和面板校正标准误差线性回归,结果表明金融科技创新提高了银行的绩效。此外,研究结果表明,银行的资本充足率、盈利能力、总资产和 GDP 年增长率也会对银行绩效产生显著的正向影响。经营年限对银行绩效有明显的不利影响。有趣的是,传统银行和国有银行对资产回报率(ROA)的积极影响要高于伊斯兰银行和私有银行。政策制定者和投资者应密切关注促进巴林王国正在进行的金融科技创新,以创造机会并建立一个更具包容性和效率的金融部门。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation in Ghana 加纳的财政赤字与通货膨胀
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15116
Solomon Hanson Obeng, A. Abotsi
The Ghanaian economy has been faced with persistent fiscal deficits over the years and this affects other macroeconomic variables like inflation. This study therefore empirically examines the effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Ghana. The study deployed a quantitative research design technique, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, and vector error correction models using annual data spanning 1976 to 2019 with 44 observations. Findings revealed that there is a significant and negative short and long-run relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Ghana, with unidirectional causality running from inflation to fiscal deficit. The study recommends that the Government of Ghana should endeavour to finance fiscal deficits mostly through external sources and non-banking methods like the issuance of bonds at the foreign financial market since non-banking borrowing has low inflationary effects.
加纳经济多年来一直面临着持续的财政赤字,这影响了通货膨胀等其他宏观经济变量。因此,本研究对财政赤字对加纳通货膨胀的影响进行了实证研究。研究采用了定量研究设计技术、自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整检验和向量误差修正模型,使用的年度数据跨度为 1976 年至 2019 年,共 44 个观测值。研究结果表明,加纳财政赤字与通货膨胀之间存在显著的短期和长期负相关关系,存在从通货膨胀到财政赤字的单向因果关系。研究建议加纳政府应努力主要通过外部来源和非银行方法(如在国外金融市场发行债券)为财政赤字融资,因为非银行借贷的通胀效应较低。
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引用次数: 0
The Construction of a Portfolio Using Varying Methods and the Effects of Variables on Portfolio Return 使用不同方法构建投资组合以及变量对投资组合收益的影响
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15314
A. Manurung, Nera Marinda Machdar, Jadongan Sijabat, Amran Manurung
This research aims to explore for portfolio construction using vary method which is Markowitz, Elton Gruber, Equal Weighted, Market Cap, and Safety-First Criterion (Roy and Kataoka Criterion).  Data was used monthly data of Kompas 100 Index for period of 2015 to June 2023.  The result found that 53 stocks for using Elton Gruber, Equal weighted,  market capitalization, Markowitz Method. There is no difference average return for portfolio of Elton Gruber, Equal weighted, market capitalization, Markowitz Method, The research's findings are as follows Roy and Kataoka as representative Safety-first criterion could be used to construct  portfolio with determining achievement of minimum return of 0.797% per month  with risk premium of 0.2% . Portfolio return using Roy criterion is vary from 3.973% to 13.397% per month and Kataoka criterion has return vary from 8.861% to 15.48% for equal weighted. Then the equal weighted portfolio return is highest than market capitalization weighted Portfolio return.  Elton Gruber method also used to construct portfolio, then this method has highest cumulative return compared to others methods. The Market shock affected all portfolio return and Interest rate has affected portfolio return for equal weighted and Elton Gruber Method. Pandemic Era affect portfolio return for Market Capitalization Weighted portfolio.
本研究旨在探讨如何使用马科维茨、埃尔顿-格鲁伯、等权、市值和安全第一准则(罗伊和片冈准则)等不同方法构建投资组合。 数据使用的是 Kompas 100 指数在 2015 年至 2023 年 6 月期间的月度数据。 结果发现,采用埃尔顿-格鲁伯、等权、市值、马科维茨方法的股票有 53 只。采用埃尔顿-格鲁伯、等权、市值、马科维茨方法的投资组合的平均回报率没有差异,研究结果如下 以罗伊和片冈为代表的安全第一标准可用于构建投资组合,以确定每月最低回报率为 0.797%,风险溢价为 0.2%。采用罗伊准则的投资组合月回报率为 3.973% 至 13.397%,而采用片冈准则的等权投资组合月回报率为 8.861% 至 15.48%。等权重投资组合的回报率高于市值加权投资组合的回报率。 Elton Gruber 方法也用于构建投资组合,与其他方法相比,该方法的累计回报率最高。市场冲击影响了所有投资组合回报,利率也影响了等权法和埃尔顿-格鲁伯法的投资组合回报。大流行时代影响了市值加权投资组合的投资回报。
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引用次数: 0
How was the SME’s Performance in Oman during Covid-19? Covid-19 期间阿曼中小企业的表现如何?
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15380
Atallah Firas Al Taha
The paper examines the performance and the challenges faced by SMEs in Oman during Covid-19. The data was collected through primary and secondary sources. A questionnaire of 100 respondents was used. Descriptive analysis and chi-squared test have been employed in the data analysis. The main findings of the study showed despite the adverse effect of the pandame, the  SMEs in Oman have performed well and indicated a resilient and adaptable strategy to cope wth the virus. The reason for this could be attributed to their ability to quickly transition to remote work and online operations. During such a challenging period, some businesses managed to thrive due to their ability to identify opportunities and leverage them. Moreover, the study revealed that financial stability and preparedness are key to navigating the pandemic's uncertainties, as businesses focus on risk management, budget planning, and saving money. In response to unexpected disruptions, businesses have become more cautious and strategic in their financial decisions. SME resilience against future crises is enhanced as a result of SMEs adopting more prudent financial practices. The key  challenges faced by SMEs during Covid-19 included delivery delays, reduced income for consumers, and regulation changes. The SMEs in Oman devised severalrisk management strategies, such as maintaining backup plans and setting aside funds, reflect a forward-thinking approach. The findings indicate that businesses in Oman are actively seeking ways to minimize disruptions to their operations and mitigate potential risks. Long-term resilience can be built by such strategic thinking.
本文探讨了阿曼中小型企业在 Covid-19 期间的业绩和面临的挑战。数据通过主要和次要来源收集。使用了 100 份调查问卷。数据分析采用了描述性分析和卡方检验。研究的主要结果表明,尽管大流行病带来了不利影响,但阿曼的中小型企业表现良好,并表现出了应对病毒的应变能力和适应策略。究其原因,可能是因为它们有能力迅速过渡到远程工作和在线运营。在这样一个充满挑战的时期,一些企业由于能够发现机会并加以利用而得以蓬勃发展。此外,研究还显示,财务稳定和有备无患是应对大流行病不确定性的关键,因为企业会把重点放在风险管理、预算规划和节约资金上。为应对意外干扰,企业在做出财务决策时变得更加谨慎,更具战略性。由于中小企业采取了更加审慎的财务做法,它们抵御未来危机的能力得到了增强。中小型企业在 Covid-19 期间面临的主要挑战包括交货延迟、消费者收入减少和监管变化。阿曼的中小型企业制定了若干风险管理战略,如制定备份计划和预留资金,这体现了一种前瞻性思维。调查结果表明,阿曼的企业正在积极寻求各种方法,以最大限度地减少对其运营的干扰并降低潜在风险。这种战略思维可以建立长期的抗风险能力。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Board of Directors and Islamic Shariah on Company Internal Control: Evidence from Jordan 董事会和伊斯兰教法对公司内部控制的影响:来自约旦的证据
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.15243
I. Amayreh, Husam Ananzeh, Abdullah Salem Bugshan
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of corporate governance and compliance with Shariah on internal controls over financial reporting. It also examines the moderating role of Shariah compliance on the relationship between corporate governance structures and internal reporting controls. Ordinary least square (OLS) models are applied to 94 listed Jordanian companies on Amman Stock Exchange over the period 2015-2021. The empirical evidence shows board size, board meetings, Shariah compliance, and auditor type have a negative impact on material weaknesses in internal controls (MWIC). Second, unitary leadership, where the same individual is both the chair and CEO, is positively correlated to MWIC. Third, Shariah compliance strengthens the effect of board meetings, suggesting that Shariah compliance and good corporate governance mechanisms reinforce each other to ensure higher-quality internal financial reporting controls.
本文旨在研究公司治理和遵守伊斯兰教法对财务报告内部控制的影响。本文还研究了遵守伊斯兰教法对公司治理结构和内部报告控制之间关系的调节作用。普通最小二乘法(OLS)模型适用于 2015-2021 年期间在安曼证券交易所上市的 94 家约旦公司。实证证据显示,董事会规模、董事会会议、伊斯兰教法合规性和审计师类型对内部控制重大缺陷(MWIC)有负面影响。其次,单一领导,即同一人既是董事长又是首席执行官,与 MWIC 呈正相关。第三,遵守伊斯兰教法加强了董事会会议的影响,这表明遵守伊斯兰教法和良好的公司治理机制相互促进,以确保更高质量的内部财务报告控制。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis 汇款对非洲经济增长的影响:计量经济学分析
Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.14867
Md. Zobayer Bin Amir, Md. Khaled Bin Amir
We propose that natural disasters enable frequent and severe market manipulation. Remittances have impact on economic growth of African nations. We tested this proposition by employing panel data from 42 African nations from 2001 to 2020.The fixed effect model is representative of all models used in this study. The unemployment rate (UR) is used as an instrumental variable in the Generalized Momentum Method (GMM) estimation to reduce the endogeneity problem.  This study suggests that remittances have a significant positive impact on the economic growth of African nations.
我们认为,自然灾害会导致频繁而严重的市场操纵。汇款对非洲国家的经济增长有影响。我们利用 2001 年至 2020 年 42 个非洲国家的面板数据对这一观点进行了检验。固定效应模型是本研究中所有模型的代表。在广义动量法(GMM)估计中,失业率(UR)被用作工具变量,以减少内生性问题。 本研究表明,汇款对非洲国家的经济增长具有显著的积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
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