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Migration in Europe and Its Economic Impact: A CGE Approach 欧洲移民及其经济影响:CGE方法
Pub Date : 2017-02-17 DOI: 10.16980/JITC.13.1.201702.1
Jong-Hwan Ko
The objective of this paper is to examine whether the migration of refugees in Europe will be able to contribute to the economic development of both the countries of origin and destination. This is done by conducting a quantitative assessment of the potential economic impact of the migration of refugees in Europe at the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that takes into account bilateral migration blows. The simulation results of policy scenarios on migration of refugees in Europe are presented in terms of real GDP, equivalent variation (EV) as a measure of welfare, supply of and demand for unskilled and skilled labor, wages for unskilled and skilled labor, and domestic production by sector of the countries concerned. Major findings of this study are that the EU member states that accept migrants are predicted to gain an additional increase in real GDP and welfare, while the countries of source such as Middle East countries, North African countries and Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to lose in economic growth and welfare, because they lose the labor force and produce less goods and services.
本文的目的是研究欧洲难民的移民是否能够促进原籍国和目的地国的经济发展。这是通过使用考虑双边移民打击的全球可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,在宏观经济和微观经济层面对欧洲难民移民的潜在经济影响进行定量评估来实现的。欧洲难民移民政策情景的模拟结果以实际国内生产总值、作为福利衡量标准的等效变化(EV)、非熟练和熟练劳动力的供求、非熟练和熟练劳动力的工资以及有关国家各部门的国内生产来表示。本研究的主要发现是,接受移民的欧盟成员国预计将获得实际GDP和福利的额外增长,而中东国家,北非国家和撒哈拉以南非洲国家等来源国预计将在经济增长和福利方面遭受损失,因为他们失去了劳动力,生产的商品和服务减少。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia 海平面上升对发展中亚洲经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2982817
Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, Minsoo Lee
Global sea level rise (SLR) variations have undeniably begun to make an impact on highly vulnerable economies. These impacts of SLR are a key component of the projected economic damage of climate change, an important input to climate change policies and adaptive measures. This paper considers SLR projections and its impact on the economy and includes a consolidation of various related studies. Estimated global gross domestic product (GDP) loss by 2100 ranges from 0.3% to as high as of 9.3% (Hinkel et al. 2014; Pycroft, Abrell, and Ciscar 2015). Climate change impact should be addressed at the global level through a locally focused effort where education and acceptance by all stakeholders are crucial and warranted. Further, this paper tackles several adaptive strategies as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. The retreat strategy simulates that SLR causes the loss of inundated land and incurs planned relocation (migration) costs above a certain sea level. The accommodation strategy allows usage of vulnerable areas or land and limits damage by flood-proofing or raising structures. Finally, the protection strategy projects that land will be protected from SLR damage by sea walls or other barriers of a certain height. On the other hand, Diaz (2016) estimates a median adaptation cost from migration at 16% of GDP under the least-cost strategy by 2050. In general, the education of and the acceptance by the concerned local community will be crucial in the successful implementation of SLR adaptation strategies, notwithstanding parallel mitigation efforts on a global scale.
不可否认,全球海平面上升(SLR)的变化已经开始对高度脆弱的经济体产生影响。SLR的这些影响是预测气候变化经济损失的关键组成部分,是气候变化政策和适应措施的重要投入。本文考虑了单反预测及其对经济的影响,并整合了各种相关研究。预计到2100年,全球国内生产总值(GDP)将损失0.3%至9.3% (Hinkel et al. 2014;Pycroft, Abrell, and Ciscar 2015)。气候变化的影响应该在全球层面上通过以地方为重点的努力来解决,所有利益相关者的教育和接受都是至关重要和必要的。此外,本文还讨论了几种适应策略作为对单反的响应,包括撤退、适应和保护。撤退策略模拟了SLR导致淹没土地的损失,并在一定海平面以上产生计划搬迁(迁移)成本。住宿策略允许使用脆弱区域或土地,并限制防洪或抬高结构的破坏。最后,该保护策略计划通过海堤或其他一定高度的障碍物来保护陆地免受SLR的破坏。另一方面,Diaz(2016)估计,在最低成本战略下,到2050年,移民的适应成本中位数为GDP的16%。总的来说,尽管在全球范围内进行了平行的缓解努力,但有关地方社区的教育和接受对于成功实施SLR适应战略至关重要。
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引用次数: 10
Collective Action-Leadership Nexus of Multipurpose Agro-Processing Marketing Institutions: A Cooperative Innovation 多用途农产品加工营销机构的集体行动-领导关系:一种合作创新
Pub Date : 2016-12-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2885220
D. Shah
The fruits and vegetable (F&Vs) marketing societies in general and PCMS in particular have performed reasonably well in Maharashtra during the past two decades, if certain deficiencies in their operation are set aside. There could be several factors behind the success of these societies. The factors such as higher literacy and enterprising nature of farmers, flow of efficient and dedicated leadership, an environment conducive to production, infrastructure facilities, facilities extended by NABARD and other financial institutions, government support, etc., might have played a crucial role in inducing these societies to perform well in the state of Maharashtra. However, since the F&Vs societies operating in Maharashtra have also shown a falling trend in their amount of extension of loan and its recovery, and also in respect of higher amount of losses in proportion to profit, efforts should be made to rectify these deficiencies in the functioning of these societies dealing with the marketing of high value crops. Some minor remedial measures and strategies framed or initiated by these marketing societies, particularly in respect of recovery of their loan advances, will certainly further improve the efficiency and functioning of these societies in the future. Government support in this respect will have a catalytic effect in improving the overall efficacy and efficiency, as well as functioning, of various PCMS operating in Maharashtra.
在过去的二十年里,水果和蔬菜(f&v)营销协会,特别是PCMS,在马哈拉施特拉邦表现得相当好,如果他们的运作中存在某些缺陷的话。这些社会的成功背后可能有几个因素。农民的识字率和进取性、高效和敬业的领导、有利于生产的环境、基础设施、NABARD和其他金融机构扩展的设施、政府支持等因素,可能在诱导这些社会在马哈拉施特拉邦表现良好方面发挥了关键作用。然而,由于在马哈拉施特拉邦经营的f&v协会也显示出贷款延期和收回金额下降的趋势,而且在与利润成比例的较高损失金额方面,应该努力纠正这些协会在处理高价值作物营销方面的功能缺陷。这些销售协会拟定或发起的一些小的补救措施和战略,特别是在收回其贷款垫款方面,肯定会进一步提高这些协会今后的效率和运作。政府在这方面的支持将对提高在马哈拉施特拉邦运作的各种PCMS的总体功效和效率以及运作产生催化作用。
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引用次数: 0
International Financial Regulation and the Basel Accord: How the Impact of a Soft Law Whisper Results in Compliance Throughout the Globe 国际金融监管和巴塞尔协议:软法律耳语的影响如何在全球范围内导致合规
Pub Date : 2016-12-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2970253
Anumeet Toor
The Basel Accord has often been regarded as one of the most successful forms of international regulation due to the high level of compliance from various actors despite the lack of direct repercussions. International financial regulation as a form of soft law is able to exert a power over actors that generally ensures compliance. The Basel Accord continues to perform as a stable method of international regulation, despite the consistent presence of flaws within the global financial system, due to the flexibility that is offered by the Accord as well as the mutual benefit that is received by all actors who choose to comply. Unlike other international treaties and agreements that face high levels of non-compliance, the Basel Accord has been widely accepted and adopted by all nations including nations that were not embraced in the decision-making process. Although different nations have unique approaches to accepting the Accord there is a generally high level of universality in the application of the regulation. As nations continue to develop in the global political economy the Basel Accord will continue to regulate international finance as a soft power.
巴塞尔协议通常被认为是最成功的国际监管形式之一,因为尽管缺乏直接影响,但各行为体的遵守程度很高。国际金融监管作为软法律的一种形式,能够对行为者施加权力,通常确保其遵守。尽管全球金融体系中始终存在缺陷,但由于协议提供的灵活性以及所有选择遵守协议的行为体所获得的共同利益,《巴塞尔协议》继续作为一种稳定的国际监管方法发挥作用。与其他国际条约和协议面临高度不遵守的情况不同,《巴塞尔协议》已被所有国家广泛接受和采用,包括那些没有参与决策过程的国家。虽然不同的国家对接受《协定》有独特的做法,但在适用该条例方面普遍具有高度的普遍性。随着各国在全球政治经济中的不断发展,巴塞尔协议将继续作为一种软实力来规范国际金融。
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引用次数: 0
Agro-Tourism: A Cash Crop for Farmers in Malaysian Rural Area 农业旅游:马来西亚农村地区农民的经济作物
Pub Date : 2016-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2876269
Sanmugam Annamalah, J. Munusamy, I. Sentosa
Tourism is well recognized as an instrument of growth in Malaysia as it has transformed the economies by developing the tourism potential. Tourism has the potential to generate large-scale employment and additional income to the skilled and unskilled workforce. Agro-tourism is a way of sustainable tourist development and multi-activity in rural areas through which the visitor has the opportunity to get close awareness with agricultural areas, agricultural occupations, local products, traditional food and the daily life of the rural people, as well as the cultural elements and traditions of the local communities.
旅游业被公认为是马来西亚增长的工具,因为它通过开发旅游潜力改变了经济。旅游业有可能创造大规模就业机会,并为熟练和非熟练劳动力带来额外收入。农业旅游是农村地区可持续旅游发展和多种活动的一种方式,通过这种方式,游客有机会近距离了解农业地区、农业职业、当地产品、传统食品和农村人民的日常生活,以及当地社区的文化元素和传统。
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引用次数: 1
Complexities of Core-Periphery Relation: an Analysis of the Late Raul Prebisch 核心-外围关系的复杂性:已故劳尔·普雷维什的分析
Pub Date : 2016-11-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2870709
Natalia Bracarense
The work of Raul Prebisch is typically summarized by two of his important contributions to development economics: the center-periphery paradigm together with his diagnosis of Latin America’s development struggles. Recent investigations have, however, shed light on the nature of Prebisch’s early work, especially his understanding of business cycles (Sember 2010; Perez and Vernengo 2012). Although the present paper focuses on his center and periphery, it examines Prebisch’s later work, casting a different light on his most enduring contribution to the field. While early in his career, Prebisch held a standard structuralist position by the 1960s, Prebisch embraced a less rigid understanding of the relationship between center and periphery, adding multiple layers to his analysis of the latter.
劳尔·普雷维什(Raul Prebisch)的工作通常由他对发展经济学的两个重要贡献来总结:中心-边缘范式以及他对拉丁美洲发展斗争的诊断。然而,最近的调查揭示了普雷维什早期工作的本质,尤其是他对商业周期的理解(2010年9月;Perez and Vernengo 2012)。虽然本文关注的是他的中心和外围,但它考察了普雷维什的后期工作,对他对该领域最持久的贡献投下了不同的光。在他职业生涯的早期,Prebisch在20世纪60年代持有标准的结构主义立场,Prebisch对中心和边缘之间的关系的理解不那么严格,对后者的分析增加了多层次。
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引用次数: 2
The Leading G20 Countries in Economic Growth in the Post-Crisis Period 后危机时期二十国集团主要经济增长国家
Pub Date : 2016-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2857897
V. Papava
According to the World Bank statistical data, a leading G20 country in economic growth in the post-crises period is China. Appearing next after China in economic growth in the post-crises period are Indonesia and India. The paper proposes adjusting the levels of economic growth based upon the hypothesis of proportional overlap for the catch-up effect after which they can be used to compare economic growth across regions. After the adjustment for the catch-up effect of the economic growth ratios, the leading G20 countries in economic growth are Australia, the USA, Canada and Saudi Arabia.
根据世界银行的统计数据,后危机时期20国集团中经济增长最快的国家是中国。在后危机时期,仅次于中国的经济增长是印尼和印度。本文提出在追赶效应的比例重叠假设基础上调整经济增长水平,之后可以用来比较区域间的经济增长。在调整经济增长比率的追赶效应后,20国集团中经济增长领先的国家是澳大利亚、美国、加拿大和沙特阿拉伯。
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引用次数: 1
Revisiting People's Capitalism from First Principles 从《第一原则》重新审视人民资本主义
Pub Date : 2016-10-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2852079
David Breslauer, David A. Pardo
The logic of people’s capitalism is explained from the giant contradiction between the assumptions of economics and those of non-ego based behavior. Current social scientific research provides enough of the theory, facts, and figures necessary for various methods, many inter-related, by which people’s capitalism can be theoretically developed. Some of these methods are discussed in general. But, due to the contemporary state of the US politico-economic system, people’s capitalism will not be implemented, naturally giving rise to the emergence of a new world religion probably somewhere in the Middle East-Mediterranean area. This suggests that traditional theology in existing world religions is fundamentally mistaken. The very idea of theology as a field of study is questioned and an argument is advanced that theology should preferably be abandoned.
从经济学假设与非自我本位行为假设之间的巨大矛盾来解释人民资本主义的逻辑。当前的社会科学研究为各种方法提供了足够的理论、事实和数据,许多方法是相互关联的,从而可以从理论上发展人民资本主义。对其中的一些方法作了一般性的讨论。但是,由于美国政治经济制度的当代状态,人民的资本主义不会得到实施,自然会产生一种新的世界宗教,可能在中东-地中海地区的某个地方。这表明,现存世界宗教的传统神学从根本上是错误的。神学作为一个研究领域的想法受到质疑,并提出了一种观点,认为神学最好被抛弃。
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引用次数: 1
Slavery, Economic Freedom & Income Levels in the Former Slave-Exporting States of Africa 非洲前奴隶出口国的奴隶制、经济自由与收入水平
Pub Date : 2016-09-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2679098
Travis Wiseman
This paper investigates the relationships among slavery, economic freedom and economic development across former slave-exporting states in Africa, using country-level slave export data from Nunn (2008a), the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World index, and per capita real GDP from the Maddison Project database. Recent studies document a negative link between slavery and present-day income. This study takes an additional step, aiming to connect slavery, institutions, and economic performance by testing whether the early institutions of slavery work through current institutions to affect modern incomes. I attempt to support this relationship using slave exports as an instrument for institutions in 2SLS income regressions. Results demonstrate a strong, positive relationship between economic freedom and present-day income. Further, based on tests of over-identifying restrictions, I cannot safely reject instrument validity. These findings, taken together, suggest that institutions likely serve as a conduit for the influence of slavery on incomes today.
本文利用Nunn (2008a)的国家级奴隶出口数据、弗雷泽研究所的世界经济自由指数和麦迪逊项目数据库的人均实际GDP,研究了非洲前奴隶出口国的奴隶制、经济自由和经济发展之间的关系。最近的研究证明了奴隶制与当今收入之间的负相关关系。本研究采取了额外的步骤,旨在通过测试早期的奴隶制制度是否通过现行制度影响现代收入,将奴隶制、制度和经济表现联系起来。我试图用奴隶出口作为2SLS收入回归制度的工具来支持这种关系。研究结果表明,经济自由与当前收入之间存在强烈的正相关关系。此外,基于过度识别限制的测试,我不能安全地拒绝工具的有效性。这些发现综合起来表明,制度可能是奴隶制对今天收入影响的一个渠道。
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引用次数: 2
A Combustible Combination: McCloskey on Ideas, Institutions, and Economic Performance Through Time 一个可燃的组合:麦克洛斯基的思想、制度和经济表现
Pub Date : 2016-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2931885
Peter J. Boettke, Rosolino A. Candela
McCloskey’s Bourgeois Equality explains the Great Enrichment of man beginning in the early 19th century as being caused by what we refer to as a “combustible combination” of ideas, institutions, and commercial practices. Economic growth for McCloskey is not just a function of the security of property rights, as her critique of Douglass North’s depiction of the Glorious Revolution indicates, but the increasing the scope of market exchange brought about by the spread of Bourgeois ideas. The ability of a society to realize the gains from productive specialization and mutually beneficial exchange, as well as the benefits of peaceful social cooperation among diverse peoples is made possible only through the adoption of ideas that legitimate and institutions that recognize the universal dignity to commercial practices such as capital accumulation, trade, and entrepreneurship.
麦克洛斯基的《资产阶级平等》解释说,19世纪初开始的人类大富裕是由我们所说的思想、制度和商业实践的“可燃组合”引起的。对麦克洛斯基来说,经济增长不仅仅是产权安全的功能,正如她对道格拉斯·诺斯(Douglass North)对光荣革命的描述所指出的那样,而是资产阶级思想的传播所带来的市场交换范围的扩大。一个社会实现从生产专业化和互利交换中获益的能力,以及从不同民族之间的和平社会合作中获益的能力,只有通过采纳承认资本积累、贸易和企业家精神等商业行为具有普遍尊严的合法思想和制度,才有可能实现。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)
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