Recent analyses relate increases in the growth rate of countries to anticipation effects caused by bidding for the Olympic Games, so called news shocks. We argue that these findings should be interpreted cautiously. First, these analyses may suffer from an omitted variable bias because they neglect key determinants of economic growth. Second, these analyses compare the bidders for the Olympic Games to all other countries in the world, which constitutes a comparison between groups that show large differences in their structural characteristics. We show that including established determinants of economic growth and comparing the bidders to a suitable control group may lead to a complete disappearance of the anticipated economic effects of Olympic Games.
{"title":"News Shocks in the Data: Olympic Games and Their Macroeconomic Effects - Reply","authors":"Viktoria C. E. Langer, W. Maennig, F. Richter","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2973287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2973287","url":null,"abstract":"Recent analyses relate increases in the growth rate of countries to anticipation effects caused by bidding for the Olympic Games, so called news shocks. We argue that these findings should be interpreted cautiously. First, these analyses may suffer from an omitted variable bias because they neglect key determinants of economic growth. Second, these analyses compare the bidders for the Olympic Games to all other countries in the world, which constitutes a comparison between groups that show large differences in their structural characteristics. We show that including established determinants of economic growth and comparing the bidders to a suitable control group may lead to a complete disappearance of the anticipated economic effects of Olympic Games.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133332267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We assess the correlations between tribalism and financial development in 123 countries using data averages from 2000-2010. The tribalism index is used to measure tribalism whereas financial development is measured from perspectives of financial intermediary and stock market developments. The long-term variable is stock market capitalisation while short-run indicators include: private and domestic credits. We find that tribalism is negatively correlated with financial development and the magnitude of negativity is higher for financial intermediary development relative to stock market development. The findings are particularly relevant to African and Middle Eastern countries where the scourge is most pronounced.
{"title":"Tribalism and Financial Development","authors":"Oasis Kodila‐Tedika, S. Asongu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2612429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2612429","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the correlations between tribalism and financial development in 123 countries using data averages from 2000-2010. The tribalism index is used to measure tribalism whereas financial development is measured from perspectives of financial intermediary and stock market developments. The long-term variable is stock market capitalisation while short-run indicators include: private and domestic credits. We find that tribalism is negatively correlated with financial development and the magnitude of negativity is higher for financial intermediary development relative to stock market development. The findings are particularly relevant to African and Middle Eastern countries where the scourge is most pronounced.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125503469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The general perception in the developed world is that Islamic Law, or Sharia’a, has had a negative impact on the economic development of the Middle Eastern countries. It should not, however, be ignored that the same geographical region was once far ahead in scientific and economic development. It is therefore reasonable to assume that there are other reasons underlying this change in fortunes. This paper explores the different factors impacting economic growth and decline in the Middle Eastern region.
{"title":"An Examination of the Proposition that Islamic Law Has Impeded Economic Development in the Middle East","authors":"N. Schoon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2605814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605814","url":null,"abstract":"The general perception in the developed world is that Islamic Law, or Sharia’a, has had a negative impact on the economic development of the Middle Eastern countries. It should not, however, be ignored that the same geographical region was once far ahead in scientific and economic development. It is therefore reasonable to assume that there are other reasons underlying this change in fortunes. This paper explores the different factors impacting economic growth and decline in the Middle Eastern region.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"420 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122121305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We formulate and solve the problem of optimal mechanism-design by a principal facing adverse selection and moral hazard from different sources. The parties’ decision problem is comprised of a publicly observable collective choice and a partially private social choice. As in agency with pure adverse selection, the individual rationality of the parties’ replies to a mechanism is characterized by the truth-telling, the participation, and the abstention conditions, but the communications of each party with the mechanism-designer are subject to moral hazard from the hidden actions taken by the rest. The Implementation Principle (Faynzilberg, 2000) remains valid: the designer’s focus on individually-rational knowledge-revealing mechanisms is without loss of optimality. Mediation of voluntary collective choice necessitates a departure from the received mechanism-design methodology, a detailed comparison with which is also provided.
{"title":"Moral Hazard in the Revelation of Knowledge","authors":"P. S. Faynzilberg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2614814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2614814","url":null,"abstract":"We formulate and solve the problem of optimal mechanism-design by a principal facing adverse selection and moral hazard from different sources. The parties’ decision problem is comprised of a publicly observable collective choice and a partially private social choice. As in agency with pure adverse selection, the individual rationality of the parties’ replies to a mechanism is characterized by the truth-telling, the participation, and the abstention conditions, but the communications of each party with the mechanism-designer are subject to moral hazard from the hidden actions taken by the rest. The Implementation Principle (Faynzilberg, 2000) remains valid: the designer’s focus on individually-rational knowledge-revealing mechanisms is without loss of optimality. Mediation of voluntary collective choice necessitates a departure from the received mechanism-design methodology, a detailed comparison with which is also provided.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122957413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs. Misallocation arises because high productivity cities like New York and the San Francisco Bay Area have adopted stringent restrictions to new housing supply, effectively limiting the number of workers who have access to such high productivity. Using a spatial equilibrium model and data from 220 metropolitan areas we find that these constraints lowered aggregate US growth by 36 percent from 1964 to 2009. (JEL E23, J24, J31, R23, R31)
{"title":"Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation","authors":"Chang-tai Hsieh, E. Moretti","doi":"10.1257/MAC.20170388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/MAC.20170388","url":null,"abstract":"We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs. Misallocation arises because high productivity cities like New York and the San Francisco Bay Area have adopted stringent restrictions to new housing supply, effectively limiting the number of workers who have access to such high productivity. Using a spatial equilibrium model and data from 220 metropolitan areas we find that these constraints lowered aggregate US growth by 36 percent from 1964 to 2009. (JEL E23, J24, J31, R23, R31)","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129744725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic growth is based on an action principle which is defined by the technological driver and an energy conservation principle based on the avoidance of scarcity.If we describe the concept of economic growth, its ontology or fundamentals, we can say that economic growth is based on technology, monetary circulation, competitiveness and scarcity. Considering the active principle, that sustains the maximal strategy, technology is the purpose that must be achieved in order to make an economy grow. This purpose is put into action by a consumer’s monetary circulation and sustained by value competitiveness. The active principle of economic growth requires:Technology: technology implies an improvement of the generation of added value with less energy consumption and less energy losses. Thus the economy grows in terms of increasing the available added value that can be traded in the community.Consumer’s monetary circulation: is the necessary credit available to access goods for the mass population.Value competitiveness: is the capacity to compete providing superior value and not based on cost advantages. The energy conservation principle requires the integration of a need to avoid scarcity, productive monetary circulation to finance the production of goods and services and price competitiveness in order to win markets based on price advantages.
{"title":"The Unicist Theory Applied to Economic Growth","authors":"Peter Belohlavek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2597643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2597643","url":null,"abstract":"Economic growth is based on an action principle which is defined by the technological driver and an energy conservation principle based on the avoidance of scarcity.If we describe the concept of economic growth, its ontology or fundamentals, we can say that economic growth is based on technology, monetary circulation, competitiveness and scarcity. Considering the active principle, that sustains the maximal strategy, technology is the purpose that must be achieved in order to make an economy grow. This purpose is put into action by a consumer’s monetary circulation and sustained by value competitiveness. The active principle of economic growth requires:Technology: technology implies an improvement of the generation of added value with less energy consumption and less energy losses. Thus the economy grows in terms of increasing the available added value that can be traded in the community.Consumer’s monetary circulation: is the necessary credit available to access goods for the mass population.Value competitiveness: is the capacity to compete providing superior value and not based on cost advantages. The energy conservation principle requires the integration of a need to avoid scarcity, productive monetary circulation to finance the production of goods and services and price competitiveness in order to win markets based on price advantages.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132619776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An anchoring adjusted currency option pricing formula is developed in which the risk of the underlying currency is used as a starting point which gets adjusted upwards to arrive at the currency call risk. Anchoring bias implies that such adjustments are insufficient. The new formula converges to the Garman-Kohlhagen formula in the absence of anchoring bias. Anchoring bias generates the implied volatility smile if investors hold heterogeneous exchange rate expectations.
{"title":"Explaining the Smile in Currency Options: Is It Anchoring?","authors":"Hammad Siddiqi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2591794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2591794","url":null,"abstract":"An anchoring adjusted currency option pricing formula is developed in which the risk of the underlying currency is used as a starting point which gets adjusted upwards to arrive at the currency call risk. Anchoring bias implies that such adjustments are insufficient. The new formula converges to the Garman-Kohlhagen formula in the absence of anchoring bias. Anchoring bias generates the implied volatility smile if investors hold heterogeneous exchange rate expectations.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"735 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122945917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shay reviews what is known about "lockout" and unrepatriated offshore earnings. He concludes that the limited evidence available does not support claims that economic harm from lockout justifies shifting to a territorial tax system.
{"title":"The Truthiness of 'Lockout': A Review of What We Know","authors":"Stephen E. Shay","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2578713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2578713","url":null,"abstract":"Shay reviews what is known about \"lockout\" and unrepatriated offshore earnings. He concludes that the limited evidence available does not support claims that economic harm from lockout justifies shifting to a territorial tax system.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"210 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116243668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper finds that U.S. economic performance has not generally improved under the Federal Reserve, with the possible exception of the Great Moderation. We analyze the Fed and pre-Fed periods in terms of the rates and volatilities of inflation and real GDP growth. Comparing the pre-Fed periods to the post-World War II period and the Great Moderation, we find that real GDP growth has been lower under the Fed, while inflation has been higher. The volatilities of inflation and GDP growth have both declined under the Fed, but the reductions occurred mostly during the Great Moderation.
{"title":"Has the Fed Improved U.S. Economic Performance?","authors":"Thomas L. Hogan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2356639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2356639","url":null,"abstract":"This paper finds that U.S. economic performance has not generally improved under the Federal Reserve, with the possible exception of the Great Moderation. We analyze the Fed and pre-Fed periods in terms of the rates and volatilities of inflation and real GDP growth. Comparing the pre-Fed periods to the post-World War II period and the Great Moderation, we find that real GDP growth has been lower under the Fed, while inflation has been higher. The volatilities of inflation and GDP growth have both declined under the Fed, but the reductions occurred mostly during the Great Moderation.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115416175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores the rise of money and class society in ancient Greece, drawing historical and theoretical parallels to the case of ancient Egypt. In doing so, the paper examines the historical applicability of the chartalist and metallist theories of money. It will be shown that the origins and the evolution of money were closely intertwined with the rise and consolidation of class society and inequality. Money, class society, and inequality came into being simultaneously, so it seems, mutually reinforcing the development of one another. Rather than a medium of exchange in commerce, money emerged as an "egalitarian token" at the time when the substance of social relations was undergoing a fundamental transformation from egalitarian to class societies. In this context, money served to preserve the faA§ade of social and economic harmony and equality, while inequality was growing and solidifying. Rather than "invented" by private traders, money was first issued by ancient Greek states and proto-states as they aimed to establish and consolidate their political and economic power. Rather than a medium of exchange in commerce, money first served as a "means of recompense" administered by the Greek city-states as they strived to implement the civic conception of social justice. While the origins of money are to be found in the origins of inequality, a well-functioning democratic society has the power to subvert the inequality-inducing characteristic of money via the use of money for public purpose, following the principles of Modern Money Theory (MMT). When used according to the principles of MMT, the inequality-inducing characteristic of money could be undermined, while the current trends in rising income and wealth disparities could be contained and reversed.
{"title":"The Rise of Money and Class Society: The Contributions of John F. Henry","authors":"A. Semenova, L. Randall Wray","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2563700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2563700","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the rise of money and class society in ancient Greece, drawing historical and theoretical parallels to the case of ancient Egypt. In doing so, the paper examines the historical applicability of the chartalist and metallist theories of money. It will be shown that the origins and the evolution of money were closely intertwined with the rise and consolidation of class society and inequality. Money, class society, and inequality came into being simultaneously, so it seems, mutually reinforcing the development of one another. Rather than a medium of exchange in commerce, money emerged as an \"egalitarian token\" at the time when the substance of social relations was undergoing a fundamental transformation from egalitarian to class societies. In this context, money served to preserve the faA§ade of social and economic harmony and equality, while inequality was growing and solidifying. Rather than \"invented\" by private traders, money was first issued by ancient Greek states and proto-states as they aimed to establish and consolidate their political and economic power. Rather than a medium of exchange in commerce, money first served as a \"means of recompense\" administered by the Greek city-states as they strived to implement the civic conception of social justice. While the origins of money are to be found in the origins of inequality, a well-functioning democratic society has the power to subvert the inequality-inducing characteristic of money via the use of money for public purpose, following the principles of Modern Money Theory (MMT). When used according to the principles of MMT, the inequality-inducing characteristic of money could be undermined, while the current trends in rising income and wealth disparities could be contained and reversed.","PeriodicalId":305946,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Economic Systems (Sub-Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126790961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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