Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply. I then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. I find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels: First, regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin. Second, geographic limitations on the area available for building houses, such as steep slopes and water bodies, lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock, leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock. My estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks, which in turn amplifies house price volatility.
{"title":"Supply Constraints and Housing Market Dynamics","authors":"A. Paciorek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1982538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1982538","url":null,"abstract":"Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply. I then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. I find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels: First, regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin. Second, geographic limitations on the area available for building houses, such as steep slopes and water bodies, lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock, leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock. My estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks, which in turn amplifies house price volatility.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"242 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116430710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Limited access of entrepreneurs to credit constrains the creation and growth of private firms. In Africa, access to credit is particularly limited for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to unclear property rights and the lack of assets that can be used as collateral. This paper presents a model where firm creation and growth hinge on matching potential entrepreneurs with productive technologies, while firm growth depends on acquired capital. The shortage of collateral creates a binding credit constraint on borrowing by SMEs and hence private sector growth and employment, even though the banking sectors have ample liquidity, as is the case in many African countries. The model is tested using a sample of 20 African countries over the period 2005-09. The empirical results suggest that policies aimed at easing the binding credit constraints (e.g., the depth of credit information and the strength of legal rights pertaining to collateral and bankruptcy) would stimulate productive entrepreneurship and private sector employment in Africa.
{"title":"Credit Constraints and Productive Entrepreneurship in Africa","authors":"M. Baliamoune-Lutz, Zuzana Brixiová, L. Ndikumana","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1974461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1974461","url":null,"abstract":"Limited access of entrepreneurs to credit constrains the creation and growth of private firms. In Africa, access to credit is particularly limited for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to unclear property rights and the lack of assets that can be used as collateral. This paper presents a model where firm creation and growth hinge on matching potential entrepreneurs with productive technologies, while firm growth depends on acquired capital. The shortage of collateral creates a binding credit constraint on borrowing by SMEs and hence private sector growth and employment, even though the banking sectors have ample liquidity, as is the case in many African countries. The model is tested using a sample of 20 African countries over the period 2005-09. The empirical results suggest that policies aimed at easing the binding credit constraints (e.g., the depth of credit information and the strength of legal rights pertaining to collateral and bankruptcy) would stimulate productive entrepreneurship and private sector employment in Africa.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114855079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This staff working paper (by Savvas, Boulton, and Jepson) examines factors that potentially influence Indigenous labour market outcomes (LMOs). It uses regression analysis, and builds on the simple model that was presented in the ‘Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage: Key Indicators (OID) 2011’, by including additional variables. The analysis uses the 2008 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey (NATSISS), a rich source of information on the characteristics of Indigenous people, including data on LMOs and many factors that might contribute to them. The analysis does not make comparisons with non-Indigenous Australians. Empirical analysis can be used to test and quantify relationships that have been developed in theory. For example, policy makers might be interested in those factors that have the greatest association with Indigenous people’s decisions to participate in the labour market and their success in obtaining a job. The purpose of this analysis is to quantify those associations. The aim is to add variables that represent social and cultural factors to the basic model in the 2011 OID Report to obtain insight into the effects of unobserved personal characteristics, and whether the way Indigenous people engage with their community and culture affects their LMOs. The views expressed in this paper are those of the staff involved and do not necessarily reflect those of the Productivity Commission.
{"title":"Influences on Indigenous Labour Market Outcomes","authors":"Annie Savvas, C. Boulton, E. Jepsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2006294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006294","url":null,"abstract":"This staff working paper (by Savvas, Boulton, and Jepson) examines factors that potentially influence Indigenous labour market outcomes (LMOs). It uses regression analysis, and builds on the simple model that was presented in the ‘Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage: Key Indicators (OID) 2011’, by including additional variables. The analysis uses the 2008 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey (NATSISS), a rich source of information on the characteristics of Indigenous people, including data on LMOs and many factors that might contribute to them. The analysis does not make comparisons with non-Indigenous Australians. Empirical analysis can be used to test and quantify relationships that have been developed in theory. For example, policy makers might be interested in those factors that have the greatest association with Indigenous people’s decisions to participate in the labour market and their success in obtaining a job. The purpose of this analysis is to quantify those associations. The aim is to add variables that represent social and cultural factors to the basic model in the 2011 OID Report to obtain insight into the effects of unobserved personal characteristics, and whether the way Indigenous people engage with their community and culture affects their LMOs. The views expressed in this paper are those of the staff involved and do not necessarily reflect those of the Productivity Commission.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"2000 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129556338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Housing prices diverge from construction prices after 1997 in four major countries. Besides, TFP differences between construction and the general economy account for the evolution of construction prices in the U.S. and Germany, but not in the U.K. and Spain.
{"title":"Does TFP Drive Housing Prices? A Growth Accounting Exercise for Four Countries","authors":"Alessio Moro, Galo Nũno","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1968364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1968364","url":null,"abstract":"Housing prices diverge from construction prices after 1997 in four major countries. Besides, TFP differences between construction and the general economy account for the evolution of construction prices in the U.S. and Germany, but not in the U.K. and Spain.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126160258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper addresses the question to which extent the complementarity between education and training can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics, i.e. to individual, job and firm specific characteristics. The novelty of this paper is to analyze previously unconsidered characteristics, in particular, personality traits and tasks performed at work which are taken into account in addition to the standard individual specific determinants. Results show that tasks performed at work are strong predictors of training participation while personality traits are not. Once working tasks and other job related characteristics are controlled for, the skill gap in training participation drops considerably for off-the-job training and vanishes for on-the-job training.
{"title":"Revisiting the Complementarity between Education and Training – The Role of Personality, Working Tasks and Firm Effects","authors":"Marcus Tamm, Katja Görlitz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1981880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1981880","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the question to which extent the complementarity between education and training can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics, i.e. to individual, job and firm specific characteristics. The novelty of this paper is to analyze previously unconsidered characteristics, in particular, personality traits and tasks performed at work which are taken into account in addition to the standard individual specific determinants. Results show that tasks performed at work are strong predictors of training participation while personality traits are not. Once working tasks and other job related characteristics are controlled for, the skill gap in training participation drops considerably for off-the-job training and vanishes for on-the-job training.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117138029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect wherein the stronger the expected future competitor, the lower the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage; and (2) an effort spillover effect wherein previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes and have already been priced into betting markets. This paper was accepted by Bruno Cassiman, business strategy.
{"title":"Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments","authors":"Jennifer Brown, Dylan Minor","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2014.2014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2014","url":null,"abstract":"We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect wherein the stronger the expected future competitor, the lower the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage; and (2) an effort spillover effect wherein previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes and have already been priced into betting markets. This paper was accepted by Bruno Cassiman, business strategy.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128113751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the extent and effects of job-related persecution under communist regimes in the Czech Republic and Poland using a representative sample of individuals aged 50+ from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Retrospective information collected in the SHARELIFE interview offers a unique chance to relate past and current labor market outcomes to experiences of persecution reflecting the historical developments in Central Europe in the 20th century. Individual level data with details on labor market histories is matched with information on the experiences of state oppression. On-the-job persecution is found to have significant effect on job quality assessment and is strongly related to reporting of distinct periods of stress in both countries. Consequences of on-the-job persecution seem to have been much more severe and longer lasting in the Czech Republic, with significant financial effects of job loss or discrimination. This is explained by the greater degree of state control over the labour market in the former Czechoslovakia compared to Poland and different characteristics of the dissident groups in both countries.
{"title":"Long Shadows of History: Persecution in Central Europe and its Labor Market Consequences","authors":"Michał Myck, R. Boháček","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1965147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1965147","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the extent and effects of job-related persecution under communist regimes in the Czech Republic and Poland using a representative sample of individuals aged 50+ from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Retrospective information collected in the SHARELIFE interview offers a unique chance to relate past and current labor market outcomes to experiences of persecution reflecting the historical developments in Central Europe in the 20th century. Individual level data with details on labor market histories is matched with information on the experiences of state oppression. On-the-job persecution is found to have significant effect on job quality assessment and is strongly related to reporting of distinct periods of stress in both countries. Consequences of on-the-job persecution seem to have been much more severe and longer lasting in the Czech Republic, with significant financial effects of job loss or discrimination. This is explained by the greater degree of state control over the labour market in the former Czechoslovakia compared to Poland and different characteristics of the dissident groups in both countries.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117175720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In recent decades, blacks have experienced substantially less upward mobility and substantially more downward mobility from one generation to the next than whites. These results are shown to be highly robust to a variety of measurement issues. The author examines rates of intergenerational mobility by race and asks whether such racial differences in the U.S. are likely to be eliminated and, if so, how long it might take.
{"title":"Black-White Differences in Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the US","authors":"B. Mazumder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1966690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1966690","url":null,"abstract":"In recent decades, blacks have experienced substantially less upward mobility and substantially more downward mobility from one generation to the next than whites. These results are shown to be highly robust to a variety of measurement issues. The author examines rates of intergenerational mobility by race and asks whether such racial differences in the U.S. are likely to be eliminated and, if so, how long it might take.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128626441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The importance of noncognitive childhood skills in predicting higher wages is well documented in economics. This paper studies the reverse. Using surveys of lottery winners, we analyze the effects of unearned income on the Big Five personality traits. After correcting for potential endogeneity problems from prize sizes, we find that unearned income improves traits that predict pro-social and cooperative behaviors, preferences for social contact, empathy, and gregariousness, and reduces individuals' tendency toward negative emotional states: known in economics literature as incentive-enhancing personality traits. Our results support the possibility of scope for later interventions to improve the personality traits of adults.
{"title":"Can Money Change Who We are? Estimating the Effects of Unearned Income on Measures of Incentive-Enhancing Personality Traits","authors":"Nattavudh Powdthavee, C. Boyce, A. Wood","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1965148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1965148","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of noncognitive childhood skills in predicting higher wages is well documented in economics. This paper studies the reverse. Using surveys of lottery winners, we analyze the effects of unearned income on the Big Five personality traits. After correcting for potential endogeneity problems from prize sizes, we find that unearned income improves traits that predict pro-social and cooperative behaviors, preferences for social contact, empathy, and gregariousness, and reduces individuals' tendency toward negative emotional states: known in economics literature as incentive-enhancing personality traits. Our results support the possibility of scope for later interventions to improve the personality traits of adults.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"224 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121252728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes household fertility and child occupation decisions in a risky environment. Fertility decisions are made first, when only the distribution of shocks is known. When shocks are realized and fertility is fixed, parents adapt by allocating children's occupations, i.e. school, paid work and domestic chores. Fertility is decreasing with the shock probability and increasing with parental permanent income. Households facing an adverse shock make more use of child labor and send fewer children to school, unless the total number of children is small. These predictions are tested with data from the Senegalese SEHW (2003) following this two-step methodology. A Poisson model estimates the number of children with classical instruments and household-level information on shock distribution, confirming the theory's predictions on fertility. A multivariate Tobit model estimates the determinants of children occupations, including the occurrence of shocks and accounting for the endogeneity of fertility. The number of children increases (decreases) the probability of child specialization (multiple activities). Shock-related variables have an adverse effect on schooling.
{"title":"Fertility and Child Occupation: Theory and Evidence from Senegal","authors":"Bertrand Verheyden, Ousmane Faye","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1963831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1963831","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes household fertility and child occupation decisions in a risky environment. Fertility decisions are made first, when only the distribution of shocks is known. When shocks are realized and fertility is fixed, parents adapt by allocating children's occupations, i.e. school, paid work and domestic chores. Fertility is decreasing with the shock probability and increasing with parental permanent income. Households facing an adverse shock make more use of child labor and send fewer children to school, unless the total number of children is small. These predictions are tested with data from the Senegalese SEHW (2003) following this two-step methodology. A Poisson model estimates the number of children with classical instruments and household-level information on shock distribution, confirming the theory's predictions on fertility. A multivariate Tobit model estimates the determinants of children occupations, including the occurrence of shocks and accounting for the endogeneity of fertility. The number of children increases (decreases) the probability of child specialization (multiple activities). Shock-related variables have an adverse effect on schooling.","PeriodicalId":306816,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Microeconomics eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115106881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：