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Vestnik Volgogradskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta Serija 1 Mathematica Physica最新文献

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Social Resources and Risks of Industrial Revolutions 4.0 in Russia 俄罗斯工业革命4.0的社会资源与风险
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.15688/JVOLSU3.2019.1.1
A. Gusov, O. Repkina
The article analyzes the main social prerequisites for the implementation of the new industrial revolution in Russia, as well as the social risks arising in this process. The analysis of the main approaches to the understanding of the essence and the main consequences of the industry 4.0 is given, the role of various social groups playing a leading role in the implementation of the revolutionary technological leap is revealed. In this regard, the features of social processes affecting the scientific and technical intelligentsia, the sphere of research and development, innovative entrepreneurship in modern Russia are studied. The fourth industrial revolution is seen as a stage of socio-economic progress with its inherent social problems and risks, such as the widening of the gap between the income on capital and the income of hired workers; increasing income inequality between individual groups of employed and unemployed people within countries due to changes in the structure of the labor market; a significant increase in unemployment in certain segments of the labor market due to automation and robotization of labor and the disappearance of many professions; population aging due to increased life expectancy. It was noted that in Russia there are various basic social resources for successful entry into the process of the fourth industrial revolution, and conditions have developed for a fairly rapid qualitative renewal of the Russian economy and increasing its competitiveness, but there are significant social risks associated with insufficient maturity of individual elements of the social system.
本文分析了俄罗斯实施新工业革命的主要社会前提,以及在此过程中产生的社会风险。分析了理解工业4.0的本质和主要后果的主要途径,揭示了各种社会群体在实施革命性技术飞跃中发挥主导作用的作用。在这方面,研究了影响现代俄罗斯科学和技术知识分子,研究和开发领域,创新企业家精神的社会进程的特征。第四次工业革命被视为社会经济进步的一个阶段,其固有的社会问题和风险,如资本收入与雇佣工人收入之间的差距扩大;由于劳动力市场结构的变化,各国内部就业者和失业者群体之间的收入不平等日益加剧;由于劳动力的自动化和机器人化以及许多职业的消失,劳动力市场某些部分的失业率显著增加;预期寿命增加导致人口老龄化。会议指出,俄罗斯具备成功进入第四次工业革命进程的各种基本社会资源,俄罗斯经济在质量上迅速更新并提高竞争力的条件也已形成,但由于社会制度的个别要素不够成熟,存在重大的社会风险。
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引用次数: 3
Improvement of the Russian System of Staff Training in the Conditions of Robotic Technology Development 在机器人技术发展条件下改进俄罗斯人员培训制度
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.15688/jvolsu3.2019.1.8
A. Stepanov
The main resource of modern manufacturing, agricultural, construction, transport enterprises and also the companies connected with information technologies is their staff. The level of staff training corresponding to the current trends in technology and technologies development, directly defines the level of relevant production industry development and national economy in general.The development of robotics and the roboti technologies in modern economy has a significant impact on change of the enterprises requirement in human resources and also on change of employers’ requirements to professional competences of staff. In the long term, labor market will impose increased requirements to staff on possession of professional competences, on interaction with robotics in a workplace, including the ability to control the equipment, to carry out monitoring of production operations observance and be able to adapt to changes in production process taking into account functionality of robotics. According to various research and polls, the modern system of staff training does not provide the study of such professional competences. In the long term, it can result in discrepancy of the young specialists’ competence that completed training in the programs of secondary professional education, and forming the offer in labor market, to those requirements which are imposed from employers. In these conditions transformation of the staff training system which will be focused, first of all, on the formation of those competences which will allow young specialists not only to use the available equipment, but to have an opportunity to master new technologies.The paper outlines the problem of incompliance of the level of young specialists training and the current trends of robotics development on the basis of statistical data and results of the available research.
现代制造业、农业、建筑业、运输业以及与信息技术相关的企业的主要资源是员工。与当前技术和技术发展趋势相对应的员工培训水平,直接决定了相关生产行业的发展水平和国民经济的总体水平。机器人技术和机器人技术在现代经济中的发展,对企业对人力资源需求的变化以及雇主对员工专业能力要求的变化产生了重大影响。从长远来看,劳动力市场将对员工提出更高的要求,要求他们拥有专业能力,在工作场所与机器人互动,包括控制设备的能力,对生产操作进行监控,并能够适应生产过程的变化,同时考虑到机器人的功能。根据各种研究和民意调查,现代工作人员培训制度并没有提供这种专业能力的研究。从长远来看,这可能导致在中等专业教育项目中完成培训并在劳动力市场上形成报价的年轻专家的能力与雇主施加的要求不一致。在这种情况下,工作人员培训制度的改革将首先集中于培养这些能力,使年轻的专家不仅能够使用现有的设备,而且有机会掌握新技术。本文在统计数据和现有研究结果的基础上,概述了青年专家培训水平不符合的问题和机器人技术发展的当前趋势。
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引用次数: 3
State Support for Private Investments in the Sphere of Physical Culture and Sports 国家对体育领域私人投资的支持
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.15688/JVOLSU3.2019.1.10
O. Larina
The mechanism of state support for private investments in the sports sector is being supplemented and improved. The article analyzes the Russian practice of public-private partnership in the sphere of physical culture and sports. The main purpose of the article is to generalize and systematize possible measures of state support of private investment in the sports industry in Russia, both at the Federal and regional levels.The forms of public-private partnership in the designated area, development trends and measures of state support existing both at the Federal and regional levels are investigated. Based on the analysis of the ongoing projects, as well as legal mechanisms that ensure the rights of investors in the Russian Federation, the conclusions are made about the need to improve the mechanisms of support for public-private partnership in the field of physical culture and sports. When implementing such projects, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of this sphere, while it is advisable to determine transparent and unambiguous criteria for the allocation of public funds. The author believes that the interaction of business in the field of physical culture and sports with the State should achieve a balance between the private interests of business and social objectives that are set and should be addressed in the interests of society.
国家支持民间投资体育的机制得到补充和完善。本文分析了俄罗斯在体育领域公私合作的实践。本文的主要目的是概括和系统化国家支持俄罗斯体育产业私人投资的可能措施,包括联邦和地区层面。研究了指定地区公私伙伴关系的形式、发展趋势以及联邦和区域一级现有的国家支助措施。根据对正在进行的项目以及确保俄罗斯联邦投资者权利的法律机制的分析,得出的结论是需要改进支持体育和体育领域公私伙伴关系的机制。在执行这类项目时,必须考虑到这一领域的具体情况,同时为公共资金的分配确定透明和明确的标准是可取的。发件人认为,体育和体育领域的企业与国家的相互作用应在企业的私人利益与为社会利益而设定并应加以解决的社会目标之间取得平衡。
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引用次数: 0
The Mathematical Model of Forecasting the Price Level in the Regional Market of Residential Real Estate 住宅房地产区域市场价格水平预测的数学模型
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.15688/jvolsu3.2019.1.4
E. Voronina, O. Yarosh, Natalya Bereza, M. Rossinskaya
The purpose of this article is to develop a mathematical model for estimating the value of a real estate object, taking into account the trends in the residential real estate market using indicators of the object’s state and indicators of the real estate market. The real estate market is a complex mechanism that includes subjects, objects, processes and infrastructure. The real estate market has its own characteristics that distinguish it from the market of goods and services related to the duality of real estate, its special characteristics. Despite the high conservatism, there are certain innovative trends in the development of the residential real estate market (innovations in construction, architecture, services and marketing, logistics, customer focus).The article considers the residential real estate market as a complex socio-technical system, to predict the development of which it is advisable to use a combination of classical forecasting methods and soft computing or intelligent data processing methods. A forecast of the development of the residential real estate services market was made using foresight technologies (industry roadmap). The analysis was carried out and the main factors acting on the market were identified, and their influence on the development of market trends was determined. A mathematical model for predicting the value of residential real estate based on the theory of fuzzy sets has been developed.
本文的目的是开发一个数学模型来估计房地产对象的价值,考虑到住宅房地产市场的趋势,使用对象的状态指标和房地产市场的指标。房地产市场是一个复杂的机制,包括主体、客体、过程和基础设施。房地产市场有其自身的特点,使其区别于与之相关的商品和服务市场,具有房地产的两重性,其特殊性。尽管高度保守,但住宅房地产市场的发展也有一定的创新趋势(建筑、建筑、服务和营销、物流、以客户为中心的创新)。本文认为住宅房地产市场是一个复杂的社会技术系统,对其发展进行预测宜采用经典预测方法与软计算或智能数据处理方法相结合的方法。运用前瞻技术(产业路线图)对住宅房地产服务市场的发展进行了预测。通过分析,确定了影响市场的主要因素,并确定了它们对市场趋势发展的影响。基于模糊集理论,建立了住宅房地产价格预测的数学模型。
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引用次数: 1
The Trends and Prospects of Leasing Development as a Relevant Financial Tool of Investments in the Southern Regions of Russia 租赁发展作为俄罗斯南部地区相关投资金融工具的趋势和前景
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.15688/JVOLSU3.2019.1.5
Emma Kuzmina, E. Kuzmina
Leasing owing to the unique economic essence is considered to be a booster for economic, innovation and investment business activity of any level. In the conditions of competition, economic subjects are constantly in search of innovative approaches to business operations and effective distribution of financial resources.This determines the demand for leasing as an efficient way to make investments into business. The relevance of the research regarding prospects of leasing development at the regional level does not raise doubts as the issue of sources of new investments into the real sector of Russian economy is particularly urgent today. Consequently, one of the ways to solve this issue is to apply new financial instruments of production, investment leasing in particular. In modern Russian economy the real investments can be raised by means of leasing which are quite necessary for modernization of fixed assets in various branches, including those in the most vulnerable links of the Russian economy.This paper presents the results of analyzing a tendency and features of leasing market development on the national and regional levels. The authors have given an assessment of investment climate in the Southern regions and systemized the factors on the basis of which both the general risks and the specific regional risks are marked out.As a result of assessing the experience of leasing functioning, some regional features have been revealed, drivers and development prospects of the leasing mechanism in the southern regions hev been defined. Furthermore, the positive approaches which should be put into practice have been revealed. Some points of growth ahave been defined in various segments of business based on the influencing support factors. As examples of growth drivers we can consider auto leasing, leasing of agricultural machinery, operating leasing, leasing for individuals and a financial supermarket.On the basis of generalization of possible ways that we can use to develop the regional leasing market there are directions to improve the realization of leasing mechanism on the regional level which can be used in practice.
租赁由于其独特的经济本质,被认为是各级经济、创新和投资商业活动的助推器。在竞争条件下,经济主体不断寻求创新的经营方式和有效的金融资源配置。这决定了租赁作为一种有效的商业投资方式的需求。关于区域一级租赁发展前景的研究的相关性并不引起怀疑,因为向俄罗斯经济实体部门提供新投资来源的问题今天特别紧迫。因此,解决这一问题的途径之一是采用新的生产金融工具,特别是投资租赁。在现代俄罗斯经济中,实体投资可以通过租赁的方式筹集,这对于俄罗斯经济中各个部门的固定资产现代化是非常必要的,包括俄罗斯经济中最脆弱的环节。本文从国家和地区两个层面对租赁市场的发展趋势和特点进行了分析。本文对南方地区的投资环境进行了评价,并在此基础上对影响投资环境的因素进行了系统分析,并在此基础上划分了一般风险和特定区域风险。通过对租赁运行经验的评价,揭示了一些区域特征,明确了南方地区租赁机制的驱动因素和发展前景。此外,还揭示了应付诸实施的积极途径。根据影响支持因素,在各个业务部门确定了一些增长点。作为增长动力的例子,我们可以考虑汽车租赁、农业机械租赁、经营租赁、个人租赁和金融超市。在对区域租赁市场发展的可能途径进行归纳的基础上,提出了完善区域层面租赁机制实现的方向,可供实践借鉴。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual Approaches and Theoretical Model of the Concept of Marketing Metrics in the Modern Economy 现代经济中营销计量概念的概念方法和理论模型
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.15688/jvolsu3.2019.1.11
E. Mitina
In the modern world, marketing metrics are used to analyze the situation on the consumer market, as well as diagnose the causes and predict future events. They make it possible to compare the results of observations obtained at different periods of time or in different areas. It is an erroneous opinion that in marketing, most decisions are made without using quantitative calculations, since today they are one of the most difficult processes to measure. Basically, marketing research uses quantitative analysis skills that are necessary to manage the productivity of enterprise’s marketing activities; however, managers who are capable of conducting creative promotional activities rarely calculate the effectiveness of the implementation of this campaign. Therefore, it is recommended to consider the classification of marketing metrics by groups, since they are the gauge of any activity. The purpose of the article is to study the theoretical foundations of marketing metrics and conceptual approaches to grouping them. Under the marketing metrics we understand the continuous, regular monitoring and control of the quantitative indicators of the enterprise and the market as a whole, aimed at identifying and solving the problems of the company, in order to develop business and meet the needs of consumers. It should be noted that we do not recommend using all the proposed metrics at once, as it isnot appropriate, but we suggest defining a number of indicators, depending on the scope of the enterprise, with the help of which it is possible to carry out an assessment, which will allow determining the most interesting marketing tools and making effective conclusions.
在现代世界,营销指标被用来分析消费者市场的情况,以及诊断原因和预测未来的事件。它们使比较不同时期或不同地区的观测结果成为可能。在市场营销中,大多数决策都是在没有使用定量计算的情况下做出的,这是一种错误的观点,因为今天它们是最难测量的过程之一。基本上,营销研究使用定量分析技能,这是管理企业营销活动生产力所必需的;然而,那些有能力进行创造性促销活动的经理们很少会计算这种活动的实施效果。因此,建议考虑按群体对营销指标进行分类,因为它们是衡量任何活动的标准。本文的目的是研究营销度量的理论基础和对它们进行分组的概念方法。营销指标是指对企业和整个市场的量化指标进行持续、定期的监测和控制,旨在发现和解决企业存在的问题,从而发展业务,满足消费者的需求。值得注意的是,我们不建议一次使用所有建议的指标,因为这是不合适的,但我们建议根据企业的范围定义一些指标,在这些指标的帮助下,可以进行评估,从而确定最有趣的营销工具并得出有效的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Developing the Criterion of Exchange Quotation Prediction Quality for Metal Trader Decision Support 为金属交易者决策支持制定交易所报价预测质量标准
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.15688/JVOLSU3.2019.1.12
Karen Paytyan
The main purpose of this article is to present a criterion for assessing the quality of forecasting nickel exchange prices to support the decision-making of a metal trader, taking into account the specifics of their commercial activities. We consider the commercial operation of a metal trading company, which consists in purchasing a metal with a view to its resale in 14 days. Most of these operations occur in nickel-rich alloys, which suggests that their prices are largely determined by nickel quotes on the LME (London Metal Exchange). Therefore, metal traders need forecasting models with a long lead time series with a high degree of volatility. One of the first assumptions suggests that in order to ensure profitable trading, it is necessary, first of all, to correctly predict the direction of price change.On the other hand, it is intuitively clear that the better the model, the more likely it will be to guess the further trend. However, it remains an open question as to what accuracy of the forecast will provide the so-called break-even point to the metal trader. This work is devoted to the search for this facet. Another assumption that the quality of any model depends on the degree of volatility of the predicted time series helps to find the exact point from which we can talk about the possibility of successful trading. Taking into account these provisions, a criterion has been developed for assessing the quality of forecasting models, which makes it possible to state with high probability that the use of a forecast that meets it will ensure commercial success for the metal trader. It is also important to note that the quality of the model can be judged only after comparing its accuracy with the characteristics of the considered time series. The prediction error itself does not give an exhaustive picture of the quality of the applied model.
本文的主要目的是提出一个评估镍交易所价格预测质量的标准,以支持金属交易商的决策,同时考虑到其商业活动的具体情况。我们考虑一家金属贸易公司的商业运作,它包括购买金属并在14天内转售。这些操作大多发生在富含镍的合金中,这表明它们的价格在很大程度上取决于伦敦金属交易所(LME)的镍报价。因此,金属交易者需要具有较长提前期序列和高度波动性的预测模型。第一个假设是,为了确保交易有利可图,首先有必要正确预测价格变化的方向。另一方面,直觉上很清楚,模型越好,就越有可能猜测未来的趋势。然而,预测的准确度将为金属交易商提供所谓的盈亏平衡点,这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。本文致力于这方面的探索。另一个假设是,任何模型的质量取决于预测时间序列的波动程度,这有助于找到我们可以谈论成功交易可能性的确切点。考虑到这些规定,已经制定了评估预测模型质量的标准,这使得有可能以高概率声明,使用符合该标准的预测将确保金属交易商的商业成功。同样重要的是要注意,只有将模型的精度与所考虑的时间序列的特征进行比较后,才能判断模型的质量。预测误差本身并不能给出应用模型质量的详尽描述。
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引用次数: 0
Concept of State Personnel Policy as a Mechanism of Macroeconomic Regulation of Employment and Unemployment 国家人事政策作为就业和失业宏观调控机制的概念
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.15688/JVOLSU3.2018.4.9
M. Tatarintsev, K. Yurchenko
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Tourism in the Factors System of Socio-Economic Development of the Region 旅游在区域社会经济发展要素体系中的作用
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.15688/jvolsu3.2018.4.8
S. Boldyreva
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引用次数: 0
The Study Metal Binding Protein Dominant Types of Plants and Microorganisms in Agrobiocenosis of the Volgograd Region 伏尔加格勒地区农业生物病植物和微生物金属结合蛋白优势类型的研究
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.15688/JVOLSU3.2018.4.16
V. Novochadov, E. Ivantsova, P. Krylov, N. Onistratenko, A. Kholodenko
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Vestnik Volgogradskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta Serija 1 Mathematica Physica
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