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A Machine Learning-based framework and open-source software for Non Intrusive Water Monitoring 基于机器学习的非侵入式水监测框架和开源软件
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106247
Marie-Philine Gross , Riccardo Taormina , Andrea Cominola
Recent research highlights the potential of consumption-based feedback for water conservation, emphasizing the need for Non Intrusive Water Monitoring (NIWM). However, existing NIWM studies often rely on small datasets, a pre-selected class of models, and inaccessible software. Here, we introduce PyNIWM, a machine learning-based open-source Python framework for NIWM. PyNIWM enables water end-use classification via (i) data characterization and feature engineering, (ii) water end-use event classification with four machine learning classifiers, and (iii) performance assessment. We demonstrate PyNIWM on a real-world dataset containing around 800,000 labeled end-use events from 762 homes across the USA and Canada. The four PyNIWM classifiers achieve F1 scores above 0.85, indicating high suitability for water end-use classification. However, a tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost exists. Finally, data balancing through oversampling enhances classification of low-represented end-use classes, but does not improve overall classification. We release PyNIWM as an open-source software, aiming for collaborative and reproducible research.
最近的研究强调了基于消耗量的节水反馈的潜力,强调了非侵入式水资源监测(NIWM)的必要性。然而,现有的非侵入式水监测研究通常依赖于小型数据集、预选的模型类别和不可访问的软件。在此,我们介绍 PyNIWM,这是一个基于机器学习的开源 Python 框架,适用于 NIWM。PyNIWM 可通过 (i) 数据特征描述和特征工程,(ii) 使用四个机器学习分类器进行水终端使用事件分类,以及 (iii) 性能评估来实现水终端使用分类。我们在一个真实世界的数据集上演示了 PyNIWM,该数据集包含来自美国和加拿大 762 个家庭的约 800,000 个标记的终端使用事件。四个 PyNIWM 分类器的 F1 分数都超过了 0.85,这表明它们非常适合水的终端使用分类。不过,在准确性和计算成本之间存在权衡。最后,通过超采样来平衡数据可以增强对低代表性最终用途类别的分类,但并不能改善整体分类效果。我们将 PyNIWM 作为开源软件发布,旨在促进合作和可复制的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrogeological modelling of a coastal karst aquifer using an integrated SWAT-MODFLOW approach 利用 SWAT-MODFLOW 综合方法建立沿海岩溶含水层水文地质模型
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106249
Gaetano Daniele Fiorese , Gabriella Balacco , Giovanni Bruno , Nikolaos Nikolaidis
The complexity of modelling in karst environments necessitates substantial adjustments to existing hydrogeological models, with particular emphasis on accurately representing surface and deep processes.
This study proposes an advanced methodology for modelling regional coastal karst aquifers using an integrated SWAT-MODFLOW approach. The focus is on the regional coastal karst aquifer of Salento (Italy), which is characterised by significant heterogeneity, anisotropy and data scarcity, such as limited discharge measurements and water levels over time.
The integrated SWAT - MODFLOW approach allows an accurate description of both surface and subsurface hydrological processes specific to karst environments and demonstrates the adaptability of the models to karst-specific features such as sinkholes, dolines and fault permeability. The study successfully addresses the challenges posed by the distinctive characteristics of karst systems through the integration of SWAT-MODFLOW. Additionally, incorporating of satellite data enhances the precision and dependability of the model by augmenting the traditional datasets.
The entire simulation period, which included both the calibration and validation phases, extended from 2008 to 2018. The calibration phase occurred between 2008 and 2011, followed by the validation phase between 2015 and 2018. The temporal choices were exclusively based on the availability of meteorological and hydrogeological data. During calibration, satellite data, previous study results, and groundwater level measurements were used to optimize the SWAT and MODFLOW models. Validation subsequently confirmed model accuracy by comparing simulated groundwater levels with observed data, demonstrating a satisfactory root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.22 m. Modelling results indicate that evapotranspiration is the predominant hydrological process, and excessive withdrawals could lead to a water deficit. Simulated piezometric maps provide crucial information on recharge areas and hydraulic compartments delineated by faults. The study not only advances the understanding of the hydrogeology of the specific case study but also provides a valuable reference for future modelling of karst aquifers. Additionally, it highlights the crucial need for ongoing enhancement in the management and monitoring of coastal karst aquifers.
岩溶环境建模的复杂性要求对现有的水文地质模型进行重大调整,尤其要强调准确表 现地表和深层过程。本研究提出了一种先进的方法,利用 SWAT-MODFLOW 综合方法对区域性 沿海岩溶含水层进行建模。该研究的重点是意大利萨兰托的区域沿海岩溶含水层,该含水层具有显著的异质性、各向异性和数据稀缺性,如有限的排泄测量数据和随时间变化的水位。SWAT-MODFLOW 集成方法可准确描述岩溶环境特有的地表和地下水文过程,并证明模型可适应岩溶特有的特征,如天坑、溶洞和断层渗透性。这项研究通过集成 SWAT-MODFLOW 成功地应对了岩溶系统的独特特征所带来的挑战。此外,卫星数据的加入还增强了传统数据集,从而提高了模型的精确度和可靠性。校准阶段发生在 2008 年至 2011 年,验证阶段发生在 2015 年至 2018 年。时间选择完全基于气象和水文地质数据的可用性。在校准过程中,利用卫星数据、先前的研究结果和地下水位测量结果来优化 SWAT 和 MODFLOW 模型。随后,通过比较模拟地下水位与观测数据,验证了模型的准确性,结果表明均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 0.22 米,令人满意。模拟压强图提供了有关断层所划定的补给区和水力分区的重要信息。这项研究不仅加深了人们对具体案例研究的水文地质的理解,还为今后岩溶含水层建模提供了宝贵的参考。此外,它还强调了不断加强沿海岩溶含水层管理和监测的重要必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Gated recurrent units for modelling time series of soil temperature and moisture: An assessment of performance and process reflectivity 用于模拟土壤温度和湿度时间序列的门控循环单元:性能和过程反映评估
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106245
Maiken Baumberger , Bettina Haas , Walter Tewes , Benjamin Risse , Nele Meyer , Hanna Meyer
Soil temperature and moisture are important variables controlling ecological processes, but continuous high-resolution data are rarely available. Therefore, we used the correlation with widely accessible meteorological variables, including air temperature and precipitation, to develop models that predict time series of soil temperature and moisture. To model high-resolution time series, predictor and target variables had a temporal resolution of 1 h. We tested the applicability of Gated Recurrent Units with time series from one exemplary site. The models showed a high predictability on the four years test set with a mean absolute error of 0.87°C for soil temperature and 3.20% volumetric water content for soil moisture. We further investigated the plausibility of the models by passing simplified synthetic data to the trained models and thereby proved their ability to reflect known processes. Finally, we showed the potential to apply the models to other sites and soil depths using transfer learning.
土壤温度和湿度是控制生态过程的重要变量,但很少有连续的高分辨率数据。因此,我们利用与气温和降水等可广泛获取的气象变量的相关性,开发了预测土壤温度和水分时间序列的模型。为了建立高分辨率时间序列模型,预测变量和目标变量的时间分辨率为 1 小时。在四年的测试集中,模型显示出较高的预测能力,土壤温度的平均绝对误差为 0.87°C,土壤水分的体积含水量误差为 3.20%。通过将简化的合成数据传递给训练有素的模型,我们进一步研究了模型的可信度,从而证明了模型反映已知过程的能力。最后,我们展示了利用迁移学习将模型应用于其他地点和土壤深度的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Toward reproducible and interoperable environmental modeling: Integration of HydroShare with server-side methods for exposing large-extent spatial datasets to models 实现可复制和可互操作的环境建模:将 HydroShare 与服务器端方法相结合,为模型提供大范围空间数据集
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106239
Young-Don Choi , Iman Maghami , Jonathan L. Goodall , Lawrence Band , Ayman Nassar , Laurence Lin , Linnea Saby , Zhiyu Li , Shaowen Wang , Chris Calloway , Hong Yi , Martin Seul , Daniel P. Ames , David G. Tarboton
Reproducible environmental modelling often relies on spatial datasets as inputs, typically manually subset for specific areas. Yet, models can benefit from a data distribution approach facilitated by online repositories, and automating processes to foster reproducibility. This study introduces a method leveraging diverse state-scale spatial datasets to create cohesive packages for GIS-based environmental modelling. These datasets were generated and shared via GeoServer and THREDDS Data Server connected to HydroShare, contrasting with conventional distribution methods. Using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) across three U.S. catchment-scale watersheds, we demonstrate minimal errors in spatial inputs and model streamflow outputs compared to traditional approaches. This spatial data-sharing method facilitates consistent model creation, fostering reproducibility. Its broader impact allows scientists to tailor the method to various use cases, such as exploring different scales beyond state-scale or applying it to other online repositories using existing data distribution systems, eliminating the need to develop their own.
可重现的环境建模通常依赖空间数据集作为输入,这些数据集通常是针对特定区域的人工子集。然而,通过在线资源库促进数据分布的方法,以及促进可重复性的自动化流程,可使模型受益匪浅。本研究介绍了一种利用不同州级空间数据集创建基于地理信息系统的环境建模内聚数据包的方法。这些数据集是通过连接到 HydroShare 的 GeoServer 和 THREDDS 数据服务器生成和共享的,与传统的分发方法形成鲜明对比。与传统方法相比,我们使用区域水文生态模拟系统(RHESSys)横跨美国三个集水尺度流域,证明空间输入和模型流输出的误差极小。这种空间数据共享方法有助于创建一致的模型,从而提高可重复性。它的影响范围更广,科学家们可以根据不同的使用情况调整该方法,例如探索国家尺度以外的不同尺度,或利用现有的数据分发系统将其应用于其他在线资源库,而无需开发自己的系统。
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引用次数: 0
Distribution-agnostic landslide hazard modelling via Graph Transformers 通过图形变换器建立与分布无关的滑坡灾害模型
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106231
Gabriele Belvederesi , Hakan Tanyas , Aldo Lipani , Ashok Dahal , Luigi Lombardo
In statistical applications, choosing a suitable data distribution or likelihood that matches the nature of the response variable is required. To spatially predict the planimetric area of a landslide population, the most tested likelihood corresponds to the Log-Gaussian case. This causes a limitation that hinders the ability to accurately model both very small and very large landslides, with the latter potentially leading to a dangerous underestimation of the hazard. Here, we test a distribution-agnostic solution via a Graph Transformer Neural Network (GTNN) and implement a loss function capable of forcing the model to capture both the bulk and the right tail of the landslide area distribution. An additional problem with this type of data-driven hazard assessment is that one often excludes slopes with landslide areas equal to zero from the regression procedure, as this may bias the prediction towards small values. Due to the nature of GTNNs, we present a solution where all the landslide area information is passed to the model, as one would expect for architectures built for image analysis. The results are promising, with the landslide area distribution generated by the Wenchuan earthquake being suitably estimated, including both zeros, the bulk and the extremely large cases. We consider this a step forward in the landslide hazard modelling literature, with implications for what the scientific community could achieve in light of a future space–time and/or risk assessment extension of the current protocol.
在统计应用中,需要选择与响应变量性质相匹配的合适数据分布或可能性。要从空间上预测滑坡群的平面面积,最常用的似然法是对数高斯分布。这就造成了一种限制,妨碍了对极小和极大滑坡进行精确建模的能力,后者可能会导致危险的低估危害。在此,我们通过图形变换器神经网络(GTNN)测试了一种与分布无关的解决方案,并实施了一个损失函数,该函数能够强制模型捕捉滑坡面积分布的大部分和右尾部。这种以数据为导向的危险评估方法的另一个问题是,人们通常会将滑坡面积等于零的斜坡排除在回归程序之外,因为这可能会使预测值偏小。鉴于 GTNN 的特性,我们提出了一种解决方案,即把所有滑坡面积信息都传递给模型,这也是为图像分析而构建的架构所期望的。结果很有希望,汶川地震产生的滑坡面积分布得到了适当的估计,包括零、大块和超大的情况。我们认为这是在滑坡灾害建模文献方面向前迈出的一步,对科学界未来根据当前协议进行时空和/或风险评估扩展所能取得的成果具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating Intelligent Hydro-informatics into an effective Early Warning System for risk-informed urban flood management 将智能水文信息学纳入有效的早期预警系统,促进风险知情的城市洪水管理
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106246
Thanh Quang Dang , Ba Hoang Tran , Quyen Ngoc Le , Ahad Hasan Tanim , Van Hieu Bui , Son T. Mai , Phong Nguyen Thanh , Duong Tran Anh
The urban drainage system constantly facing flooding issues in coastal and urban areas. Robust and accurate urban flood management, particularly considering fast-moving compound floods, is crucial to minimize the impact of flood disasters in coastal cities. Till now, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) lacks an effective means of urban flood management because of flood risk communication among residents. Existing flood risk communication tools rely on post-disaster flood model outcomes and data. Therefore, this research proposes a real-time Early Urban Flooding Warning System (EUFWS) integrated with a user-friendly web and app interface. The backbone of this system consists of flood models developed using machine learning (ML) algorithms, combined with big data and Web-GIS visualization, with ML serving as the core for constructing the EUFWS. EUFWS offer several key advantages: they are available at all times, accessible from anywhere, and provide a real-time, multi-user working platform. Additionally, the system is flexible, allowing for the easy addition of components and services and scalable, adjusting to workload demands. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. Research results indicate that EUFWS supported decision-makers to be effectively risk informed and make intelligent decisions during urban flood emergencies. This underscores the significant potential of integrating ML and information technology to enhance the management of smart urban drainage systems in flood-prone cities worldwide.
城市排水系统一直面临着沿海和城市地区的洪水问题。稳健而准确的城市洪水管理,尤其是考虑到快速移动的复合洪水,对于最大限度地减少洪水灾害对沿海城市的影响至关重要。迄今为止,胡志明市(HCMC)还缺乏有效的城市洪水管理手段,原因是居民之间的洪水风险沟通。现有的洪水风险交流工具依赖于灾后洪水模型结果和数据。因此,本研究提出了一个实时城市洪水预警系统(EUFWS),该系统集成了用户友好的网络和应用程序界面。该系统的骨干包括利用机器学习(ML)算法开发的洪水模型,结合大数据和 Web-GIS 可视化,以 ML 作为构建 EUFWS 的核心。EUFWS 具有几个主要优势:随时可用、随时随地访问,并提供了一个实时、多用户的工作平台。此外,该系统还具有灵活性,可轻松添加组件和服务,并可根据工作量需求进行扩展。作为案例研究,EUFWS 已在越南 Thu Duc 市成功部署并有效运行。作为案例研究,EUFWS 已在越南 Thu Duc 市成功部署并有效运行。研究结果表明,EUFWS 支持决策者在城市洪水紧急情况下有效了解风险并做出明智决策。这突出表明,在全球易受洪水侵袭的城市中,集成 ML 和信息技术以加强智能城市排水系统管理的潜力巨大。
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引用次数: 0
Adapting OGC’s SensorThings API and Data Model to Support Data Management and Sharing for Environmental Sensors 调整 OGC 的 SensorThings API 和数据模型,支持环境传感器的数据管理和共享
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106241
Jeffery S. Horsburgh , Kenneth Lippold , Daniel L. Slaugh
Software is critical in managing environmental sensor data. The Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) developed the “OGC SensorThings API” (STA) standard to address variability across sensors, observed variables, platforms, and protocols, facilitating development of sensing and Internet of Things applications. This paper details a Python/Django implementation of the STA application programming interface (API) and a PostgreSQL/Timescale implementation of the STA data model, enhancing availability of robust software for management and sharing of environmental sensor data. STA offers a RESTful interface with JSON data encoding, aligning with modern development patterns and facilitating interoperability. Integration of metadata from the Observations Data Model ensures data can be adequately described and interpreted. STA’s flexibility allows lightweight query responses or comprehensive metadata inclusion, and a complementary data management API enhances use of STA within multi-user systems. Open-source code and deployment instructions in GitHub enable standalone or cloud deployments, enhancing accessibility and usability for researchers and practitioners.
软件对于管理环境传感器数据至关重要。开放地理空间联盟(OGC)制定了 "OGC SensorThings API"(STA)标准,以解决传感器、观测变量、平台和协议之间的差异,促进传感和物联网应用的开发。本文详细介绍了STA应用编程接口(API)的Python/Django实现和STA数据模型的PostgreSQL/Timescale实现,从而提高了用于管理和共享环境传感器数据的强大软件的可用性。STA 提供带有 JSON 数据编码的 RESTful 接口,符合现代开发模式并促进互操作性。观测数据模型的元数据集成可确保数据得到充分描述和解释。STA 的灵活性允许轻量级的查询响应或全面的元数据包含,而互补的数据管理应用程序接口(API)增强了 STA 在多用户系统中的使用。GitHub 上的开源代码和部署说明可支持独立部署或云部署,从而提高了研究人员和从业人员的可访问性和可用性。
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引用次数: 0
Hydro-geomorphological assessment of culvert vulnerability to flood-induced soil erosion using an ensemble modeling approach 利用集合建模法对涵洞易受洪水引发的土壤侵蚀影响的水文地质评估
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106243
Sourav Mukherjee , Sudhanshu Panda , Devendra M. Amatya , Mariana Dobre , John L. Campbell , Roger Lew , Peter Caldwell , Kelly Elder , Johnny M. Grace , Sherri L. Johnson
Intense precipitation events pose growing threats to forest infrastructure causing flooding, and soil erosion and deposition, creating bottlenecks at road-stream crossing structures (RSCS). We describe a hillslope-scale ensemble hydro-geomorphological vulnerability assessment integrating geospatial Streambank Erosion Vulnerability Assessment (SBEVA), Modified Revised Soil Loss Equation (MRUSLE), and process-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model into an ensemble hydro-geomorphologic vulnerability index (EHVI) for USDA Forest Service (USFS) managed 194 road-culverts at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBR-EF) in New Hampshire, USA. The results revealed that five and one culvert with diameters of 0.46m and 0.61m, respectively, have extreme EHVI values between 4 and 5, and fifteen and three culverts with diameters of 0.46m and 0.61m, respectively, have severe EHVI values between 3 and 4, some of which were previously identified as hydrologically vulnerable (undersized) to floods. This knowledge will inform USFS efforts to improve the resilience of the RSCS and protect aquatic habitats.
强降水事件对森林基础设施造成了越来越大的威胁,导致洪水、土壤侵蚀和沉积,造成公路-河流交叉结构(RSCS)的瓶颈。我们描述了一种山坡尺度的集合水文地貌脆弱性评估,该评估将地理空间溪岸侵蚀脆弱性评估(SBEVA)、修正的土壤流失方程(MRUSLE)和基于过程的水侵蚀预测项目(WEPP)模型整合到集合水文地貌脆弱性指数(EHVI)中,用于美国新罕布什尔州哈伯德布鲁克实验林场(HBR-EF)的美国农业部林务局(USFS)管理的 194 个道路涵洞。结果显示,直径分别为 0.46 米和 0.61 米的 5 个和 1 个涵洞的极端 EHVI 值介于 4 和 5 之间,直径分别为 0.46 米和 0.61 米的 15 个和 3 个涵洞的严重 EHVI 值介于 3 和 4 之间,其中一些涵洞以前曾被确定为易受洪水影响(尺寸不足)。这些知识将为美国联邦科学与技术服务局提高 RSCS 的恢复能力和保护水生栖息地的工作提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Towards an Open and Integrated Cyberinfrastructure for River Morphology Research in the Big Data Era 在大数据时代为河流形态学研究建立开放式集成网络基础设施
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106240
Venkatesh Merwade , Ibrahim Demir , Marian Muste , Amanda L. Cox , J. Toby Minear , Yusuf Sermet , Sayan Dey , Chung-Yuan Liang
The objective of this paper is to present the initial illustration of a cyberinfrastructure named the RIver MORPHology Information System (RIMORPHIS) that addresses the current limitations related to river morphology data and tools. RIMORPHIS is supported by a data model for storing river morphology data. A new specification for data and semantics on river morphology datasets has been developed to support the web-based platform for discovering and visualization of river morphology data. Several geoprocessing tools are developed that enable scientific analysis and practical studies, including the coordinate transformation, cross-section generation and bathymetry mesh generation. Our vision for RIMORPHIS is to create a self-sustained community platform with tools to support scientific discoveries on river morphology and to enable multidisciplinary research for riverine environments. To accomplish this vision, we created a community to gather input and build partnerships. The RIMORPHIS cyberinfrastructure addresses the community needs related to data access, processing and visualization. The current implementation of RIMORPHIS is scalable for new data and tools.
本文旨在介绍一个名为 "河流形态信息系统(RIMORPHIS)"的网络基础设施的初步说明,以解决目前与河流形态数据和工具有关的局限性。RIMORPHIS 由一个用于存储河流形态数据的数据模型提供支持。为河流形态数据集的数据和语义制定了新的规范,以支持基于网络的河流形态数据发现和可视化平台。我们还开发了若干地理处理工具,用于科学分析和实际研究,包括坐标转换、断面生成和水深测量网格生成。我们对 RIMORPHIS 的愿景是创建一个自给自足的社区平台,为河流形态的科学发现提供工具支持,并促进河流环境的多学科研究。为了实现这一愿景,我们创建了一个社区来收集意见和建立合作伙伴关系。RIMORPHIS 网络基础设施满足了社区在数据访问、处理和可视化方面的需求。RIMORPHIS 目前的实施可根据新数据和新工具进行扩展。
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引用次数: 0
An operational IoT-based slope stability forecast using a digital twin 利用 "数字孪生 "进行基于物联网的实际边坡稳定性预测
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106228
Luca Piciullo, Minu Treesa Abraham, Ida Norderhaug Drøsdal, Erling Singstad Paulsen
<div><div>The paper investigates the combined use of real-time hydrological monitoring, publicly available meteorological data and hydrological and geotechnical numerical modelling, to develop data-driven models to forecast the stability of a slope. This study showcases a first attempt to integrate these critical aspects into a fully automatic Internet of Thing (IoT)-based local landslide early warning system (Lo-LEWS).</div><div>The paper uses a validated hydrological numerical model, back-calculated over real monitored conditions, to evaluate the slope stability. The factor of safety (<span><math><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>S</mi></mrow></math></span>) was computed coupling the commercial package GeoStudio, using transient SEEP/W and Slope. The analyses were conducted for 5 different 1-year datasets encompassing both historical (2019–2020, 2021–2022, 2022–2023) and future projections (2064–2065, 2095–2096) of meteorological variables. Daily variation of hydrological and meteorological variables, along with vegetation indicators were used as inputs to train data-driven models, using polynomial regression (PR) and Random Forest (RF), to forecast daily <span><math><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>S</mi></mrow></math></span> values. The trained models proved to be effective and were employed to forecast slope stability for the rolling three days. To accurately forecast the <span><math><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>S</mi></mrow></math></span>, it was essential to incorporate forecasted hydrological, meteorological and vegetation variables into the analysis. The hydrological variables used as inputs for the data-driven models are forecasted using an open-source Python package for the analysis of hydrogeological time series, called Pastas (Collenteur et al., 2019). This model uses historical and forecasted meteorological and vegetation conditions to, specifically, replicate and forecast the time series of volumetric water content (VWC) and pore water pressure (PWP). The forecasted hydrological variables from Pastas, the forecasted meteorological variables as well as Leaf Area Index (<span><math><mrow><mi>L</mi><mi>A</mi><mi>I</mi></mrow></math></span>) are used as inputs for the trained data-driven models to forecast the <span><math><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>S</mi></mrow></math></span> values.</div><div>Finally, a web-based platform (WBP) has been created that automatically runs once a day and perform the following actions: 1) fetches measured and forecasted data using APIs, 2) runs rolling three days forecast based on collected hydrological, meteorological and vegetation variables, and 3) sends the forecasted values back to the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) data platform, NGI Live, making them available for real-time visualization in online dashboards. If <span><math><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>S</mi></mrow></math></span>, VWC or PWP threshold values are exceeded, text messages and emails are sent to the system managers, enabling them t
本文研究了如何综合利用实时水文监测、公开可用的气象数据以及水文和岩土工程数值建模,开发数据驱动的模型来预测斜坡的稳定性。本研究展示了将这些关键方面整合到基于物联网(IoT)的全自动本地滑坡预警系统(Lo-LEWS)中的首次尝试。论文使用经过验证的水文数值模型,根据实际监测条件进行反向计算,以评估斜坡稳定性。安全系数(FoS)是通过商业软件包 GeoStudio,使用瞬态 SEEP/W 和 Slope 计算得出的。分析针对 5 个不同的 1 年数据集,包括气象变量的历史数据(2019-2020 年、2021-2022 年、2022-2023 年)和未来预测数据(2064-2065 年、2095-2096 年)。水文和气象变量的日变化以及植被指标被用作训练数据驱动模型的输入,使用多项式回归(PR)和随机森林(RF)来预测每日的 FoS 值。经过训练的模型被证明是有效的,并被用于预测滚动三天的斜坡稳定性。要准确预报 FoS,必须将预报的水文、气象和植被变量纳入分析。作为数据驱动模型输入的水文变量是通过一个用于分析水文地质时间序列的开源 Python 软件包进行预测的,该软件包名为 Pastas(Collenteur 等人,2019 年)。该模型使用历史和预测的气象和植被条件,特别是复制和预测体积含水量(VWC)和孔隙水压力(PWP)的时间序列。最后,还创建了一个基于网络的平台(WBP),每天自动运行一次,并执行以下操作:1) 利用应用程序接口获取测量数据和预测数据;2) 根据收集到的水文、气象和植被变量进行三天滚动预测;3) 将预测值发回挪威岩土工程研究所(NGI)的数据平台 NGI Live,以便在在线仪表板中实现实时可视化。如果超过 FoS、VWC 或 PWP 临界值,系统管理员将收到短信和电子邮件,以便采取适当行动。该框架的成功实施是岩土工程学、水文学、气象学、仪器学和信息学等不同专业领域通力合作的结果。
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Environmental Modelling & Software
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