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Open problems in uncertainty quantification for flood modelling: A systematic review 洪水模拟中不确定性量化的开放性问题:系统综述
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106799
Jamiu Adekunle Idowu , Ayman Alfahid
Floods are among the world's most devastating hazards, yet progress in predicting and managing flood risk remains limited by pervasive uncertainties at every stage of the modelling pipeline. This systematic review identifies eight open problems in uncertainty quantification for flood modelling, including: long-term prediction errors, poor calibration of predictive intervals, incomplete representation of uncertainties, inadequate handling of spatial and temporal variability, non-linearity, data scarcity and integration issues, high computational costs, and failure to capture uncertainties in extreme events. These challenges reflect a system-level mismatch between the dynamic complexity of floods and the fragmented nature of current modelling practice. Real progress in flood risk science demands a shift from siloed, modular workflows to seamless, end-to-end probabilistic pipelines – integrating heterogeneous data, hybridizing process-based and data-driven models, rigorously quantifying uncertainty at all stages, and communicating actionable risk information for policy and emergency response.
洪水是世界上最具破坏性的灾害之一,但在预测和管理洪水风险方面的进展仍然受到建模过程中每个阶段普遍存在的不确定性的限制。本系统综述确定了洪水建模中不确定性量化的八个开放性问题,包括:长期预测误差、预测区间校准不良、不确定性的不完整表示、空间和时间变异性处理不足、非线性、数据稀缺和集成问题、高计算成本以及未能捕捉极端事件中的不确定性。这些挑战反映了洪水的动态复杂性与当前建模实践的碎片性之间的系统级不匹配。洪水风险科学的真正进步需要从孤立的模块化工作流程转变为无缝的端到端概率管道——整合异构数据,混合基于过程和数据驱动的模型,严格量化所有阶段的不确定性,并为政策和应急响应传达可操作的风险信息。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing geospatial data infrastructure in dataverse via metadata automation, interactive tools and LLM case study 通过元数据自动化、交互工具和法学硕士案例研究,在dataverse中推进地理空间数据基础设施
IF 4.9 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106792
Ana Trisovic, Jan Range, Philip Durbin, Katherine Mika, Amber Leahey, Wei Li, Danielle Braun
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引用次数: 0
The HYDRUS model for soil and water management: A brief review of capabilities, trends, and future directions 用于水土管理的HYDRUS模型:能力、趋势和未来方向的简要回顾
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106801
V. Jayasuriya , Prabha Susan Philip , T. Jyolsna
The HYDRUS software suite is a cornerstone of modern soil and water science, having evolved from a specialized numerical solver into a comprehensive platform for simulating complex vadose zone processes. A bibliometric analysis of 3154 peer-reviewed articles (1993–2024) quantifies this trajectory, revealing distinct eras of growth and shifting research themes. Key applications in irrigation optimization, nutrient management, and contaminant fate are examined, highlighting the critical role of specialized add-on modules for simulating advanced processes like preferential flow and reactive transport. This review synthesizes persistent scientific challenges, including model parameterization, the representation of nonequilibrium phenomena, and the need for rigorous validation. Future research directions point toward enhanced computational efficiency and deeper integration with GIS, remote sensing, and machine learning to address existing limitations and explore emerging environmental problems.
HYDRUS软件套件是现代土壤和水科学的基石,已经从一个专门的数值求解器发展成为模拟复杂渗透带过程的综合平台。一项对3154篇同行评议文章(1993-2024)的文献计量学分析量化了这一轨迹,揭示了不同的增长时代和研究主题的转变。研究了在灌溉优化、养分管理和污染物命运方面的关键应用,强调了用于模拟先进过程(如优先流和反应输送)的专门附加模块的关键作用。这篇综述综合了持续存在的科学挑战,包括模型参数化,非平衡现象的表示,以及严格验证的需要。未来的研究方向指向提高计算效率和与GIS、遥感和机器学习的更深层次的集成,以解决现有的限制和探索新出现的环境问题。
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引用次数: 0
Introducing NLCD-Imp: A QGIS plugin to better replicate urban characteristics in land use/cover maps for SWAT 介绍NLCD-Imp:一个QGIS插件,可以更好地在SWAT的土地使用/覆盖地图中复制城市特征
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106798
Dongjun Lee , Ritesh Karki , Latif Kalin
Urbanization alters land use patterns, influencing hydrological and biochemical cycles. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models, including the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), use simplified urban classifications that fail to capture the spatial heterogeneity of impervious surfaces. To address this limitation, we developed NLCD-Imp, a QGIS plugin that enhances National Land Cover Database (NLCD) land use/land cover (LULC) maps by integrating detailed urban characteristics. We applied NLCD-Imp to SWAT to assess its impact on hydrological and biochemical responses in an urban watershed. The NLCD-Imp inputs increased surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and led to a two-to fourfold increase in simulated nutrient loads in highly impervious urban areas. A threshold-based method showed that a 2 % imperviousness threshold balances model accuracy and complexity. NLCD-Imp improves urban LULC representation in SWAT and can be adapted for other models, enhancing simulation reliability and supporting sustainable urban water management.
城市化改变了土地利用模式,影响了水文和生化循环。然而,大多数流域尺度水文模型,包括水土评估工具(SWAT),使用简化的城市分类,无法捕捉不透水表面的空间异质性。为了解决这一限制,我们开发了NLCD- imp,这是一个QGIS插件,通过整合详细的城市特征来增强国家土地覆盖数据库(NLCD)的土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)地图。我们将NLCD-Imp应用于SWAT,以评估其对城市流域水文和生化反应的影响。NLCD-Imp的投入增加了地表径流,减少了蒸散,并导致高度不透水的城市地区模拟养分负荷增加了2至4倍。基于阈值的方法表明,2%的不透水阈值平衡了模型的准确性和复杂性。NLCD-Imp改进了SWAT中的城市LULC表示,并可适用于其他模型,从而提高了模拟可靠性并支持可持续的城市水管理。
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引用次数: 0
Signal estimation adaptive algorithm with latch-mechanism for real-time water quality monitoring 基于锁存机制的实时水质监测信号估计自适应算法
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106793
Boguslaw Twarog , Przemyslaw Hawro , Tadeusz Kwater
The protection of water reservoirs requires precise monitoring of quality parameters, which is a crucial aspect of water resource management. This article proposes an algorithm for real-time reconstruction of unmeasured signals using only easily accessible measurement data. The proposed method relies on a specially designed latch mechanism and a mathematical river model. The river model under consideration is described by nonlinear ordinary differential equations obtained via a transformation of partial differential equations. The task was accomplished through the application of an adaptive signal estimation algorithm specifically developed for this purpose, with additional tuning of dynamic properties achieved through precise placement of eigenvalues. The results of simulation studies confirmed improved accuracy in reproducing dynamic processes, particularly for signals that are challenging to measure directly, compared to other analysed methods. As a practical application, the proposed algorithm is implemented as a soft sensor for monitoring a biochemically polluted river.
水库的保护需要对水质参数进行精确监测,这是水资源管理的一个重要方面。本文提出了一种仅使用易于获取的测量数据对未测量信号进行实时重建的算法。该方法依赖于一个特殊设计的锁存机构和一个数学河流模型。所考虑的河流模型由偏微分方程的变换得到的非线性常微分方程来描述。该任务通过应用专门为此目的开发的自适应信号估计算法来完成,并通过精确放置特征值来实现动态特性的额外调整。与其他分析方法相比,模拟研究的结果证实了再现动态过程的准确性,特别是对于难以直接测量的信号。作为实际应用,本文提出的算法被实现为监测生化污染河流的软传感器。
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引用次数: 0
Deterministic discharge time series for morphodynamic assessments of river interventions 河流干预形态动力学评价的确定性流量时间序列
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106800
S.J.H.A. Gradussen , A.L. de Jongste , V. Chavarrías
When modelling the morphological response to river interventions, deterministic discharge time series are commonly used as a cost-effective alternative for approximating the most likely morphological changes resulting from Monte Carlo (MC) analyses. The conventional deterministic approach cycles long-term discharge statistics through a Cycled Annual Hydrograph (CyAH), neglecting inter-annual discharge variability. We introduce a new deterministic method, the Multiple Annual Hydrograph (MuAH), that accounts for such inter-annual discharge variations. Using a one-dimensional model, we simulate morphodynamic changes resulting from a hypothetical intervention in an alluvial river to demonstrate the application of these deterministic time series and to evaluate their performance. We find that MuAH time series result in both long-term (quasi-static) evolution and seasonal (dynamic) morphological changes that more closely match MC results and natural discharge time series, compared with the CyAH approach. This enables more accurate assessments of morphological change induced by river interventions when using deterministic time series.
当对河流干预的形态响应进行建模时,确定性流量时间序列通常被用作一种具有成本效益的替代方法,用于近似蒙特卡罗(MC)分析导致的最可能的形态变化。传统的确定性方法通过循环年线(CyAH)循环长期流量统计,忽略了年际流量变化。我们引入了一种新的确定性方法,即多年际水文图(MuAH),来解释这种年际流量变化。使用一维模型,我们模拟了冲积河中假设干预导致的形态动力学变化,以展示这些确定性时间序列的应用并评估其性能。我们发现,与CyAH方法相比,MuAH时间序列的长期(准静态)演化和季节性(动态)形态变化更接近MC结果和自然放电时间序列。这使得在使用确定性时间序列时能够更准确地评估河流干预引起的形态变化。
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引用次数: 0
Interpretable deep learning hybrid streamflow prediction modeling based on multi-source data fusion 基于多源数据融合的可解释深度学习混合流预测建模
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106796
Zhaocai Wang , Cheng Ding , Nannan Xu , Weilong Wang , Xingxing Zhang
Accurate streamflow forecasts are critically important for monitoring flood disasters and managing water resources. The factors influencing streamflow are complex, characterized by significant non-linearity and intricacy. Developing a data-driven hybrid deep learning model for streamflow prediction represents an effective strategy. Consequently, this study introduces an enhanced deep learning model, named CEEMDAN-ISMA-CNN-LSTM-AM-RF (CICLAR), for predicting both streamflow and extreme flood events. This study integrates multi-source heterogeneous data, including remote sensing, meteorological, hydrological, and streamflow data. The Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) is utilized to reduce the complexity, and then multi-source data are input into the CNN-LSTM-AM model. Additionally, the Improved Slime Mould Algorithm (ISMA) is employed to optimize the neural network's hyperparameters. Finally, Random Forest (RF) is used to perform non-linear summation. The study conducted daily streamflow predictions at 11 stations located in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sections of the Jialing River in China, demonstrating that the CICLAR model significantly outperforms other benchmark models. Taking the Beibei Hydrological Station as an example, compared to the conventional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) of the CICLAR model's prediction results increased by 30 %, and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreased by 75 %. For extreme flood forecasting, compared to the LSTM, the CICLAR model reduced the Mean Relative Error (MRE) by 0.86 and improved the Qualification Rate (QR) by 150 %. The results of this study show that the CICLAR model has significant application value in extreme flood forecasting and water resources management.
准确的流量预报对于监测洪水灾害和管理水资源至关重要。影响水流的因素是复杂的,具有显著的非线性和复杂性。开发数据驱动的混合深度学习模型用于流量预测是一种有效的策略。因此,本研究引入了一种增强型深度学习模型,名为CEEMDAN-ISMA-CNN-LSTM-AM-RF (CICLAR),用于预测河流流量和极端洪水事件。本研究整合了多源异构数据,包括遥感、气象、水文和河流数据。采用自适应噪声完全集成经验模态分解方法(CEEMDAN)降低模型复杂度,将多源数据输入到CNN-LSTM-AM模型中。此外,采用改进黏菌算法(ISMA)对神经网络的超参数进行优化。最后,利用随机森林(Random Forest, RF)进行非线性求和。通过对嘉陵江上游、中游和下游11个站点的日流量预测,表明CICLAR模型显著优于其他基准模型。以北碚水文学站为例,与传统的长短期记忆(LSTM)模型相比,CICLAR模型预测结果的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)提高了30%,平均绝对误差(MAE)降低了75%。在极端洪水预报中,与LSTM模型相比,CICLAR模型的平均相对误差(MRE)降低0.86,合格率(QR)提高150%。研究结果表明,CICLAR模型在极端洪水预报和水资源管理中具有重要的应用价值。
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引用次数: 0
From vegetation classification to vegetation zonation: a multi-source modelling framework for evergreen broad-leaved forests in complex terrain 从植被分类到植被区带:复杂地形常绿阔叶林多源建模框架
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106780
Shiqi Zhang , Peihao Peng , Ning Li , Juan Wang , Xuefeng Peng , Zhaozhi Luo
Fine-scale vegetation zoning of evergreen broad-leaved forests (EBFs) is essential for ecological understanding and forest management, yet expert-led schemes often under-represent environmental complexity. This study proposes a multi-source modelling framework that bridges vegetation classification and zonation, demonstrated in Sichuan Province, China. Vegetation classification data for primary units were derived from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-1 imagery using a hierarchical multi-label network, and for secondary units from kernel density estimation of constructive species. A vegetation–environment relationship model then quantifies the influence of climate, topography and soil, converting discrete classes into the continuous indicators required for zoning. Finally, zoning thresholds were defined using confidence interval and Jenks natural breaks, and boundaries refined through upscaling and Gaussian filtering. The resulting map delineates three vegetation areas and fifteen vegetation districts, capturing spatial heterogeneity across the Sichuan Basin-Tibetan Plateau ecotone. The framework provides a replicable tool for vegetation zoning in complex mountain systems.
常绿阔叶林精细植被分区对生态认识和森林管理至关重要,但专家主导的方案往往不能充分反映环境的复杂性。本研究提出了一个连接植被分类和地带性的多源建模框架,并以四川省为例进行了验证。一级单元的植被分类数据来源于Landsat-8和Sentinel-1卫星图像,二级单元的植被分类数据来源于构造物种的核密度估计。然后,植被-环境关系模型量化气候、地形和土壤的影响,将离散的类别转换为分区所需的连续指标。最后,利用置信区间和Jenks自然断点定义分区阈值,并通过上尺度和高斯滤波对边界进行细化。该框架为复杂山地系统的植被分区提供了可复制的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Nat4Wat: a co-developed decision-support system for resilient urban water management with nature-based solutions Nat4Wat:一个共同开发的决策支持系统,用于基于自然的弹性城市水管理解决方案
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106797
Josep Pueyo-Ros , Esther Mendoza , Gianluigi Buttiglieri , Joaquim Comas
Nature-based solutions (NBS) have emerged as sustainable approaches to urban water management, addressing critical challenges like wastewater treatment and stormwater management while delivering additional environmental and social benefits. A significant advantage of NBS is their potential to decentralize urban water management, enabling cities to distribute water treatment and storage systems across multiple locations, thereby alleviating pressure on traditional centralized infrastructure. However, the wide array of NBS options, each tailored to specific contexts, presents a considerable challenge for decision-makers. The Nat4Wat decision-support system (DSS) was developed to help stakeholders select, compare, and evaluate NBS options for wastewater treatment and stormwater management. Nat4Wat streamlines decision-making by integrating a transparent multicriteria evaluation with an open knowledge base that links performance, costs, and cobenefits. By integrating multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), Nat4Wat evaluates factors —such as cost-effectiveness, environmental performance, operational requirements, and social benefits— guiding users toward the most suitable and sustainable NBS for their specific needs. This paper details the co-development of Nat4Wat, in collaboration with technology providers and decision-makers, showcasing its application in two case studies: wastewater reuse at a rural hotel and stormwater mitigation in an urban area. These examples demonstrate how the tool streamlines decision-making, enhances transparency, and fosters stakeholder participation. As urban areas face increasing water-related challenges driven by climate change and population growth, Nat4Wat serves as a relevant resource for integrating NBS into resilient and sustainable urban water management strategies.
基于自然的解决方案(NBS)已经成为城市水管理的可持续方法,解决了废水处理和雨水管理等关键挑战,同时带来了额外的环境和社会效益。NBS的一个显著优势是其分散城市水管理的潜力,使城市能够在多个地点分布水处理和储存系统,从而减轻传统集中式基础设施的压力。然而,各种各样的国家统计局选项(每种选项都是针对具体情况量身定制的)给决策者带来了相当大的挑战。开发Nat4Wat决策支持系统(DSS)是为了帮助利益相关者选择、比较和评估国家统计局的废水处理和雨水管理方案。Nat4Wat通过将透明的多标准评估与连接性能、成本和协同效益的开放知识库相结合,简化了决策。通过集成多标准决策分析(MCDA), Nat4Wat评估诸如成本效益、环境绩效、运营要求和社会效益等因素,指导用户根据其特定需求选择最合适和可持续的NBS。本文详细介绍了与技术提供商和决策者合作共同开发Nat4Wat的情况,并在两个案例研究中展示了其应用:农村酒店的废水回用和城市地区的雨水缓解。这些示例演示了该工具如何简化决策、增强透明度和促进涉众参与。在气候变化和人口增长的推动下,城市地区面临着越来越多的与水有关的挑战,Nat4Wat是将国家统计局纳入有弹性和可持续的城市水管理战略的相关资源。
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引用次数: 0
Generative artificial intelligence and marine ecological monitoring 生成式人工智能与海洋生态监测
IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106789
Luciano Ortenzi , Jacopo Aguzzi , Damianos Chatzievangelou , Eugenio Nerio Nemmi , Michele Ferrari , Ivan Masmitja , Morane Clavel-Henry , Nixon Bahamon , Nathan J. Robinson , Giacomo Picardi , Paula Espina , Simona Violino , Riccardo De Angelis , Simone Figorilli , Lavinia Moscovini , Matteo Gallici , Francesca Antonucci , Alessandro Mei , Corrado Costa
To meet the needs of the future, marine environmental monitoring must develop methods to efficiently combine and utilise data from a diverse range of sources (e.g., satellite imagery, sensor networks, acoustic data). Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) is uniquely suited to aid with this by enabling the synthesis and integration of heterogeneous and often incomplete data. Its ability to learn underlying statistical patterns supports data fusion, imputation, and enhanced interpretation across sources. GenAI also introduces novel modelling approaches to tackle ecological uncertainties and improve predictive insight. Here, we present a comprehensive overview of GenAI applications in marine ecological monitoring, emphasising its potential to improve data quality control, automate species identification, and support the creation of digital twins. We also highlight key research challenges, such as managing model bias and ensuring system transparency, and outline future directions for integrating GenAI into sustainable marine ecological monitoring and management.
为了满足未来的需要,海洋环境监测必须发展各种方法,有效地结合和利用来自各种来源的数据(例如,卫星图像、传感器网络、声学数据)。生成式人工智能(GenAI)通过合成和集成异构且通常不完整的数据来帮助解决这一问题。它学习底层统计模式的能力支持跨数据源的数据融合、输入和增强的解释。GenAI还引入了新的建模方法来解决生态不确定性和提高预测洞察力。在这里,我们全面概述了GenAI在海洋生态监测中的应用,强调了它在改善数据质量控制、自动化物种识别和支持数字双胞胎创建方面的潜力。我们还强调了关键的研究挑战,如管理模型偏差和确保系统透明度,并概述了将GenAI纳入可持续海洋生态监测和管理的未来方向。
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引用次数: 0
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