Purpose: SME sector credit risk has received attention in research from several dimensions of the financial system. SME sector’s funding is mainly supplied by financial institutions and SME sector is both diversified and large sector in both well developed and less developed economies. Specific research on assessing SME as Financial Institution’s (FI’s) individual counterparties and SMEs as portfolios have developed from a theoretical and empirical perspective. To supplement current research on the area, we approach SME risk from perspective of FIs own risk assessments and compare it to how SME risk rating and measurement compares to other counterparties. Design/methodology/approach: We use published risk rating data from large financial institutions in Europe including globally operating FIs and compare shares of credits in different risk grades and overall portfolio risks within an institution’s own risk classification system and risk measurement system. The data consists of 89 comparable portfolios with over 25 million credits. Findings: Our results show that comparison to households and large corporates originates from higher default rate estimates for SME, which shows as smaller share of credits in the investment grade. SME risk is further raised as even within speculative grades SME’s receives higher default estimates in comparison to households and large corporates. An equally notable finding is that the other relevant parameter for risk calculation, loss given default (LGD), does not differ between SME’s and other counterparties. A part of SME credits is found to be in a low-risk regime in portfolio credit risk estimation. Research limitations/implications: Coverage and detail of data restricts to a specified geographical coverage and aggregated data on SME-companies is not as exact as unit level data. The data represents mostly European institutions as it is collected from institutions which have a head quarter in Europe and are applying Basel regulation in a single rule book environment for banking regulation. In a global scopethere may be differences between jurisdictions or between geographical areas. Data published by institutions is an aggregated data on a rating grade level a and not on a unit level data that institutions have for their exact calculations. Comparison methods for SME sector are selected accordingly so that methods apply to class level instead of unit level data. Originality/value: Higher capital requirements for SME’s may restrict the price and availability of finance. According to our results there can be separated a low-risk SME finance without higher capital requirements compared to peers. Results may also be used to support counterparty level default risk model results showing higher risk for SME’s which can be seen in smaller shares of investment grade credits and in a higher default rate for speculative grade credits.
{"title":"High and Low Credit Risk in SME Portfolios: Evidence from Regulatory Risk Grade Dissemination","authors":"Jan Nokkala","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.152.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.152.03","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: SME sector credit risk has received attention in research from several dimensions of the financial system. SME sector’s funding is mainly supplied by financial institutions and SME sector is both diversified and large sector in both well developed and less developed economies. Specific research on assessing SME as Financial Institution’s (FI’s) individual counterparties and SMEs as portfolios have developed from a theoretical and empirical perspective. To supplement current research on the area, we approach SME risk from perspective of FIs own risk assessments and compare it to how SME risk rating and measurement compares to other counterparties. Design/methodology/approach: We use published risk rating data from large financial institutions in Europe including globally operating FIs and compare shares of credits in different risk grades and overall portfolio risks within an institution’s own risk classification system and risk measurement system. The data consists of 89 comparable portfolios with over 25 million credits. Findings: Our results show that comparison to households and large corporates originates from higher default rate estimates for SME, which shows as smaller share of credits in the investment grade. SME risk is further raised as even within speculative grades SME’s receives higher default estimates in comparison to households and large corporates. An equally notable finding is that the other relevant parameter for risk calculation, loss given default (LGD), does not differ between SME’s and other counterparties. A part of SME credits is found to be in a low-risk regime in portfolio credit risk estimation. Research limitations/implications: Coverage and detail of data restricts to a specified geographical coverage and aggregated data on SME-companies is not as exact as unit level data. The data represents mostly European institutions as it is collected from institutions which have a head quarter in Europe and are applying Basel regulation in a single rule book environment for banking regulation. In a global scopethere may be differences between jurisdictions or between geographical areas. Data published by institutions is an aggregated data on a rating grade level a and not on a unit level data that institutions have for their exact calculations. Comparison methods for SME sector are selected accordingly so that methods apply to class level instead of unit level data. Originality/value: Higher capital requirements for SME’s may restrict the price and availability of finance. According to our results there can be separated a low-risk SME finance without higher capital requirements compared to peers. Results may also be used to support counterparty level default risk model results showing higher risk for SME’s which can be seen in smaller shares of investment grade credits and in a higher default rate for speculative grade credits.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42126199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: Operational risks appear as the main threats of the modern world. Mistakes made by employees, an imperfect information systems or changes in the law can cause losses that businesses today are not even able to estimate. Therefore, in the face of widespread the asymmetry of information, it becomes crucial to find such forms of financing losses, where the transmission of this information will not cause any concern. Such a form of insurance is based on the principle of mutuality. Design/methodology/approach: The research was based on a review of the literature in the area of asymmetric information and verification of research in the identification of key risk categories. Findings: Many researchers, including Nobel Prize winners, have identified the problem associated with a lack or asymmetry of information. But today, this issue leads to critical risks for businesses. This phenomenon is a subject of disclosure in the form of various categories of operational risk. Research limitations/implications: Mutuality-based insurance is therefore a path based on solutions of the past (primary forms of insurance), but at the same time is seen as a response to the lack of adaptation of insurance products to the actual needs of clients. Consequently, the agency theory (principal-agent dependency) commonly used in modern times is being replaced by the idea of a sharing economy. Originality/value: The study addresses a complex area of the modern economy. Companies run their business and they want to have adequate insurance products to cover possible losses, including operational risks. Today, the insurance market is not ready to build appropriate products. Only insurance based on mutuality and the realization of the sharing economy can allow the preparation of adequate insurance products.
{"title":"The Use of the Principle of Sharing and Mutuality in Covering Risks (in the Modern World)","authors":"Krzysztof Łyskawa, Marietta Janowicz-Lomott","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.152.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.152.01","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: Operational risks appear as the main threats of the modern world. Mistakes made by employees, an imperfect information systems or changes in the law can cause losses that businesses today are not even able to estimate. Therefore, in the face of widespread the asymmetry of information, it becomes crucial to find such forms of financing losses, where the transmission of this information will not cause any concern. Such a form of insurance is based on the principle of mutuality. Design/methodology/approach: The research was based on a review of the literature in the area of asymmetric information and verification of research in the identification of key risk categories. Findings: Many researchers, including Nobel Prize winners, have identified the problem associated with a lack or asymmetry of information. But today, this issue leads to critical risks for businesses. This phenomenon is a subject of disclosure in the form of various categories of operational risk. Research limitations/implications: Mutuality-based insurance is therefore a path based on solutions of the past (primary forms of insurance), but at the same time is seen as a response to the lack of adaptation of insurance products to the actual needs of clients. Consequently, the agency theory (principal-agent dependency) commonly used in modern times is being replaced by the idea of a sharing economy. Originality/value: The study addresses a complex area of the modern economy. Companies run their business and they want to have adequate insurance products to cover possible losses, including operational risks. Today, the insurance market is not ready to build appropriate products. Only insurance based on mutuality and the realization of the sharing economy can allow the preparation of adequate insurance products.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43977959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Rotimi, Michelle Doorasamy, Udi Joshua, G. Rotimi, Confort Omolayo Rotimi, G. Samuel, G. Adeyemi, Ayodele Solomon Alemayo, A. Kimea
Purpose: Remittance is essential to economic wellbeing. Realising this fact, this study examined, within the optimist theoretical framework, whether international remittances significantly impact per capita economic growth in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach: Employing annual time series data spanning 1980-2020, the study adopted the Pesaran, Shin, and Smith ARDL bounds estimating model to examine the type of relationships between remittances and Nigeria’s per capita growth. Finding: The study reveals a statistically significant positive nexus in the long-run and short-run among the variables. Specifically, it found that higher remittances inflow enhances per capita growth both in long-run and short-run in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study found that remittances are sources of external financing and eventually, it is a means to economic growth and also may help to fill fiscal deficit gap. Research limitations/implications: This study recommends that government should, through sound policy option, encourage remittances influx. This could be realised by creating viable relationship among international communities that largely account for remittance inflow into Nigeria. It further suggests a prudent and optimal management of remittances inflow through the appropriate monetary authority. This may include formulating policy that will ease remittance inflow and remove unnecessary barriers to inflow of remittances. Originality/value: The study contributes to literature by examining whether international remittances within the optimist theoretical framework significantly impact per capita economic growth (PCEG) in Nigeria.
{"title":"ARDL Analysis of Remittance and Per Capita Growth Nexus in Oil Dependent Economy: The Nigeria’s Experience","authors":"M. Rotimi, Michelle Doorasamy, Udi Joshua, G. Rotimi, Confort Omolayo Rotimi, G. Samuel, G. Adeyemi, Ayodele Solomon Alemayo, A. Kimea","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.153.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.153.03","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: Remittance is essential to economic wellbeing. Realising this fact, this study examined, within the optimist theoretical framework, whether international remittances significantly impact per capita economic growth in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach: Employing annual time series data spanning 1980-2020, the study adopted the Pesaran, Shin, and Smith ARDL bounds estimating model to examine the type of relationships between remittances and Nigeria’s per capita growth. Finding: The study reveals a statistically significant positive nexus in the long-run and short-run among the variables. Specifically, it found that higher remittances inflow enhances per capita growth both in long-run and short-run in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study found that remittances are sources of external financing and eventually, it is a means to economic growth and also may help to fill fiscal deficit gap. Research limitations/implications: This study recommends that government should, through sound policy option, encourage remittances influx. This could be realised by creating viable relationship among international communities that largely account for remittance inflow into Nigeria. It further suggests a prudent and optimal management of remittances inflow through the appropriate monetary authority. This may include formulating policy that will ease remittance inflow and remove unnecessary barriers to inflow of remittances. Originality/value: The study contributes to literature by examining whether international remittances within the optimist theoretical framework significantly impact per capita economic growth (PCEG) in Nigeria.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46223570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: A major challenge traders, speculators and investors are grappling with is how to accurately forecast Bitcoin price in the cryptocurrency market. This study is aimed to uncover the best model for the forecasts of Bitcoin price as well as to verify the price series that offers the best predictions performance under different periodicity of datasets. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopts three different data periods to verify whether frequency matters in forecasting Bitcoin price. The Bitcoin price, from 01/01/15 to 11/01/2021, is trained and validated on selected forecast models, including the Naïve, Linear, Exponential Smoothing Model, ARIMA, Neural Network, STL and Holt-Winters filters. Five forecast accuracy measures (RSME, MAE, MPE, MAPE and MASE) are applied to confirm the best performing model. The Diebold‐Mariano test is used to compare the forecasts based on the daily price with those based on the weekly and monthly. Findings: Based on the accuracy measures, the results indicate that the Naïve model provides more accurate performance for the daily series, while the linear model outperforms others for the weekly and monthly series. Using the Diebold‐Mariano statistics, there is evidence that forecasting Bitcoin price is not sensitive to the data periodicity. Research limitations/implications: The study has a major limitation, which is the shared sentiment to apply actual Bitcoin price series, and not the returns or log transformation for the forecast models. Notably, actual data may sometimes be loud, hence increasing the possibility of over predictions. Originality/value: In forecasting, different approaches have been used, this paper compares outputs of both statistical and machine learning methods in order to arrive at the best option for the Bitcoin price forecasts. Hence, we investigate whether the machine learning tools offer better forecasts in terms of lower error and higher model’s accuracy relative to the traditional models.
{"title":"Price Prediction for Bitcoin: Does Periodicity Matter?","authors":"A. Gbadebo, J. Akande, A. O. Adekunle","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.153.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.153.06","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: A major challenge traders, speculators and investors are grappling with is how to accurately forecast Bitcoin price in the cryptocurrency market. This study is aimed to uncover the best model for the forecasts of Bitcoin price as well as to verify the price series that offers the best predictions performance under different periodicity of datasets. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopts three different data periods to verify whether frequency matters in forecasting Bitcoin price. The Bitcoin price, from 01/01/15 to 11/01/2021, is trained and validated on selected forecast models, including the Naïve, Linear, Exponential Smoothing Model, ARIMA, Neural Network, STL and Holt-Winters filters. Five forecast accuracy measures (RSME, MAE, MPE, MAPE and MASE) are applied to confirm the best performing model. The Diebold‐Mariano test is used to compare the forecasts based on the daily price with those based on the weekly and monthly. Findings: Based on the accuracy measures, the results indicate that the Naïve model provides more accurate performance for the daily series, while the linear model outperforms others for the weekly and monthly series. Using the Diebold‐Mariano statistics, there is evidence that forecasting Bitcoin price is not sensitive to the data periodicity. Research limitations/implications: The study has a major limitation, which is the shared sentiment to apply actual Bitcoin price series, and not the returns or log transformation for the forecast models. Notably, actual data may sometimes be loud, hence increasing the possibility of over predictions. Originality/value: In forecasting, different approaches have been used, this paper compares outputs of both statistical and machine learning methods in order to arrive at the best option for the Bitcoin price forecasts. Hence, we investigate whether the machine learning tools offer better forecasts in terms of lower error and higher model’s accuracy relative to the traditional models.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44548008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether the interest charges on public debt could be a threat for the "said" ageing expenditures. This study attempts to analyze the effects of debt burdens known as interest charges in relation to the pensions and health care spending. The "said" ageing expenditures since the debate on this issue doesn’t allow us to say that these expenses are totally linked to ageing. Design/methodology/approach: This study conducts an ordinary least squares analysis based on panel and cross-sectional data covering the period 2000-2020. The data are extracted from OECD statistic and from Eurostat statistic database. The research performs an analysis on 33 OECD countries. The dependents variables are pensions and health care spendings on GDP. The key independent variable is the interest charges. Other additional variables are included in the analysis that we can find in the text. Findings: The results of this study remain ambiguous and call for further study. Nevertheless, based on the current data, there is every reason to believe that, at present, expenditures on interest charges would not crowd out spending on pensions and health care. However, the significance of the demographic variables (old-age dependency ratio, total dependency ratio), and the increase in these ratios in the projections, point to a potential risk of collapse of the pension and health care systems. Research limitations/implications: The main difficulty encountered in this study was the collection of empirical literature dealing with our topic. Many papers used in our empirical literature was not always in relation with the topic of our research. Our challenge was to create the relation with those analyses to propose something original. Originality/value: We propose an innovative study, by proposing the analysis of debt charges in relation to pensions and health care expenditures. Several approaches in the same direction have used other parameters to analyze the costs of ageing, notably the debt to GDP ratio. We integrate other demographic variables such as the dependency ratio, macroeconomic indicators such as the savings rate. All these elements constitute the originality of our study.
{"title":"Interest Charges and the “Said” Ageing-related Expenditures: A Study of OECD Countries","authors":"Zapji Ymélé Aimé Philombe","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.153.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.153.01","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether the interest charges on public debt could be a threat for the \"said\" ageing expenditures. This study attempts to analyze the effects of debt burdens known as interest charges in relation to the pensions and health care spending. The \"said\" ageing expenditures since the debate on this issue doesn’t allow us to say that these expenses are totally linked to ageing. Design/methodology/approach: This study conducts an ordinary least squares analysis based on panel and cross-sectional data covering the period 2000-2020. The data are extracted from OECD statistic and from Eurostat statistic database. The research performs an analysis on 33 OECD countries. The dependents variables are pensions and health care spendings on GDP. The key independent variable is the interest charges. Other additional variables are included in the analysis that we can find in the text. Findings: The results of this study remain ambiguous and call for further study. Nevertheless, based on the current data, there is every reason to believe that, at present, expenditures on interest charges would not crowd out spending on pensions and health care. However, the significance of the demographic variables (old-age dependency ratio, total dependency ratio), and the increase in these ratios in the projections, point to a potential risk of collapse of the pension and health care systems. Research limitations/implications: The main difficulty encountered in this study was the collection of empirical literature dealing with our topic. Many papers used in our empirical literature was not always in relation with the topic of our research. Our challenge was to create the relation with those analyses to propose something original. Originality/value: We propose an innovative study, by proposing the analysis of debt charges in relation to pensions and health care expenditures. Several approaches in the same direction have used other parameters to analyze the costs of ageing, notably the debt to GDP ratio. We integrate other demographic variables such as the dependency ratio, macroeconomic indicators such as the savings rate. All these elements constitute the originality of our study.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47618324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: In this paper we try to explain US stock market variations and cash flow fundamentals by employing three different book-valued based ratios. First, we explore the explanatory capacity of the simple book-market ratio on time-varying expected returns, and procced on altering its construction so as to enhance its performance. We then run the extra mile by constructing two new ratios, the book-dividends and book-earnings ratios based on the long-run equilibrium relationships between book, dividends and earnings. Our analysis includes evidence of predictability on dividend and earnings growth rates on the S&P 500 for the most recent sample period 1926-2018. We also investigate the ratios’ forecastability by sub-sampling. Design/methodology/approach: We commence our analysis with the conventional book-market (bm) ratio and by failing to reject the hypothesis of a unit root, we propose the modified book-market (mbm) ratio, whose construction is based on the long-run equilibrium relationship between book (b) and market (m) values. We proceed on associating book values to dividends and earnings series and fix the book-earnings (be) and the dividend-book (db) ratios. We similarly modify be and db, and examine their forecasting performance on returns, dividend and earnings growth. Findings: In-sample evidence suggests that an investor who employs mbm can improve its forecasts by 37% and 41% in the 7- and 10-year return horizon, while the modified dividend-book (mdb) proves even more beneficial by explaining 53% and 59% in similar return horizons. Our modified book-earnings (mbe) has a very good in-sample fit to the earnings growth data unlike the rest of the predictors. With respect to the out-of-sample performance, mbm manages to surpass the simplistic forecast benchmark only at the 10-year horizon by 15% while mdb attains an impressive R_oos^2 of 47% and 71% at the 7- and 10-year return horizon. Research limitations/implications: Further research is required so as to solve the earnings puzzle in terms of forecasting along with the necessity to understand the economical sources behind non-stationarity in valuation ratios. Originality/value: We believe that our paper may prove enlightening to investors focused on portfolio allocation and asset pricing and scholars interested in return forecasting, capital budgeting and risk identification.
{"title":"Modifications on Book-Valued Ratios","authors":"C. Georgiou","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.153.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.153.02","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: In this paper we try to explain US stock market variations and cash flow fundamentals by employing three different book-valued based ratios. First, we explore the explanatory capacity of the simple book-market ratio on time-varying expected returns, and procced on altering its construction so as to enhance its performance. We then run the extra mile by constructing two new ratios, the book-dividends and book-earnings ratios based on the long-run equilibrium relationships between book, dividends and earnings. Our analysis includes evidence of predictability on dividend and earnings growth rates on the S&P 500 for the most recent sample period 1926-2018. We also investigate the ratios’ forecastability by sub-sampling. Design/methodology/approach: We commence our analysis with the conventional book-market (bm) ratio and by failing to reject the hypothesis of a unit root, we propose the modified book-market (mbm) ratio, whose construction is based on the long-run equilibrium relationship between book (b) and market (m) values. We proceed on associating book values to dividends and earnings series and fix the book-earnings (be) and the dividend-book (db) ratios. We similarly modify be and db, and examine their forecasting performance on returns, dividend and earnings growth. Findings: In-sample evidence suggests that an investor who employs mbm can improve its forecasts by 37% and 41% in the 7- and 10-year return horizon, while the modified dividend-book (mdb) proves even more beneficial by explaining 53% and 59% in similar return horizons. Our modified book-earnings (mbe) has a very good in-sample fit to the earnings growth data unlike the rest of the predictors. With respect to the out-of-sample performance, mbm manages to surpass the simplistic forecast benchmark only at the 10-year horizon by 15% while mdb attains an impressive R_oos^2 of 47% and 71% at the 7- and 10-year return horizon. Research limitations/implications: Further research is required so as to solve the earnings puzzle in terms of forecasting along with the necessity to understand the economical sources behind non-stationarity in valuation ratios. Originality/value: We believe that our paper may prove enlightening to investors focused on portfolio allocation and asset pricing and scholars interested in return forecasting, capital budgeting and risk identification.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45245159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: This paper analysed the effects of bank’s risk on capital buffer in Namibia, in the absence of the consensus on the cyclical behavior of capital buffers. Design/methodology/approach: The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling technique on quarterly data for the period 2001 to 2019. Findings: The study found the following: First, there is a long run relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Second, the study showed that the ratio of NPLs to gross total loans negatively affect capital buffers in the short run, while it positively affects capital buffers in the long run. Furthermore, return on assets and liquidity negatively affects capital buffers in both the short and long run. On the contrary, bank size in form of log of total loans positively affects capital buffers in both the short and long run. Research limitations/implications: The unavailability of data of a long-term span is not desirable. Moreover, the limited data of certain variables narrowed the choice of a variety of variables that could be included in the study. Originality/value: The paper contributes to the hypothesized theory of countercyclical. The policy implication from these findings is that the presence of countercyclical relationship is in support of the transition from Basel II to Basel III to mitigate the procyclical as experienced under Basel II accords as documented in the literature. Future studies should focus on using a variety of variables to assess this relationship and see whether or not the outcome will be different.
{"title":"Bank Capital Buffers and Bank Risks: Evidence from the Namibian Banking Sector","authors":"Johannes P. S. Sheefeni","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.153.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.153.05","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This paper analysed the effects of bank’s risk on capital buffer in Namibia, in the absence of the consensus on the cyclical behavior of capital buffers. Design/methodology/approach: The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling technique on quarterly data for the period 2001 to 2019. Findings: The study found the following: First, there is a long run relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Second, the study showed that the ratio of NPLs to gross total loans negatively affect capital buffers in the short run, while it positively affects capital buffers in the long run. Furthermore, return on assets and liquidity negatively affects capital buffers in both the short and long run. On the contrary, bank size in form of log of total loans positively affects capital buffers in both the short and long run. Research limitations/implications: The unavailability of data of a long-term span is not desirable. Moreover, the limited data of certain variables narrowed the choice of a variety of variables that could be included in the study. Originality/value: The paper contributes to the hypothesized theory of countercyclical. The policy implication from these findings is that the presence of countercyclical relationship is in support of the transition from Basel II to Basel III to mitigate the procyclical as experienced under Basel II accords as documented in the literature. Future studies should focus on using a variety of variables to assess this relationship and see whether or not the outcome will be different.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42597025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: The consolidation of the banking market in Croatia is characterized by a decreasing number of banks, especially small banks. The inability to remain in the market is often the result of the inability to maintain sustainable efficiency over time. Therefore, the main aim of the study was to determine whether small banks can successfully participate in the efficiency race with large banks. Furthermore, it was essential to clarify whether the efficiency gap arises from technical or scale efficiency. Finally, we also analyse how the COVID-19 pandemic crisis has affected efficiency and the difference between large, medium, and small banks. Design/methodology/approach: The efficiency development of the Croatian banking sector over eight years is examined using the Malmquist - DEA performance measure under the assumption of variable returns to scale (BCC model) and using the input-oriented DEA model. We use the intermediary approach for defining input and output variables, and the study covers the period from 2013 to 2020. Data are taken from ORBIS database. Findings: Banks in Croatia increased their total factor productivity by 2.2% on average, mainly due to an increase in technological change (1.93%), implying innovation and new banking services. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic crisis has further accelerated the race for efficiency. Indeed, the results show that the improvement in efficiency was more remarkable than the average of the period studied, especially in terms of technical efficiency (1% in 2020 compared to the mean of the period of 0.28%), but also due to technological efficiency (2.02% in 2020 compared to the mean of the period of 1.93%). Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic crisis affected efficiency in different ways with respect to the size of banks. Large banks improved their total factor productivity by 7.19%, small banks by 2.64%, and medium-sized banks reduced it by 1.38%. In addition, large banks achieved efficiency improvements due to technological change, while small banks focused on both technical (1.70%) and technological (0.98%) efficiency improvements. Research limitations/implications: One of the limitations of the paper was that during period some takeovers were conducted in Croatian banking sector and therefore some banks were omitted from sample. Additionally, ORBIS database does not cover some data that could be better as indicators of outputs. Therefore, future research on this topic could include other input-output variables such as assets/labor and revenue (income). Our results suggest that innovation in the delivery of banking services is critical to maintaining the race for efficiency. Therefore, our results may lead managers to focus on technological change in the long run, but especially in times of crisis. Managers of small banks should focus on both managerial and technological improvements. Originality/value: This study primarily makes an empirical contribution to the topic of efficiency in the banking sector
{"title":"Banking Sector Race to Efficiency during the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis in Croatia: Does the Size Matter?","authors":"Josip Visković, Lana Kordić, M. Miletic","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.152.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.152.02","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The consolidation of the banking market in Croatia is characterized by a decreasing number of banks, especially small banks. The inability to remain in the market is often the result of the inability to maintain sustainable efficiency over time. Therefore, the main aim of the study was to determine whether small banks can successfully participate in the efficiency race with large banks. Furthermore, it was essential to clarify whether the efficiency gap arises from technical or scale efficiency. Finally, we also analyse how the COVID-19 pandemic crisis has affected efficiency and the difference between large, medium, and small banks. Design/methodology/approach: The efficiency development of the Croatian banking sector over eight years is examined using the Malmquist - DEA performance measure under the assumption of variable returns to scale (BCC model) and using the input-oriented DEA model. We use the intermediary approach for defining input and output variables, and the study covers the period from 2013 to 2020. Data are taken from ORBIS database. Findings: Banks in Croatia increased their total factor productivity by 2.2% on average, mainly due to an increase in technological change (1.93%), implying innovation and new banking services. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic crisis has further accelerated the race for efficiency. Indeed, the results show that the improvement in efficiency was more remarkable than the average of the period studied, especially in terms of technical efficiency (1% in 2020 compared to the mean of the period of 0.28%), but also due to technological efficiency (2.02% in 2020 compared to the mean of the period of 1.93%). Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic crisis affected efficiency in different ways with respect to the size of banks. Large banks improved their total factor productivity by 7.19%, small banks by 2.64%, and medium-sized banks reduced it by 1.38%. In addition, large banks achieved efficiency improvements due to technological change, while small banks focused on both technical (1.70%) and technological (0.98%) efficiency improvements. Research limitations/implications: One of the limitations of the paper was that during period some takeovers were conducted in Croatian banking sector and therefore some banks were omitted from sample. Additionally, ORBIS database does not cover some data that could be better as indicators of outputs. Therefore, future research on this topic could include other input-output variables such as assets/labor and revenue (income). Our results suggest that innovation in the delivery of banking services is critical to maintaining the race for efficiency. Therefore, our results may lead managers to focus on technological change in the long run, but especially in times of crisis. Managers of small banks should focus on both managerial and technological improvements. Originality/value: This study primarily makes an empirical contribution to the topic of efficiency in the banking sector","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49437574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: Modelling security prices seem to be an ending debate in finance literature due to no clear consensus on behavioral patterns. Knowledge of stock price movement has always been an important source of information that is much needed in asset pricing and trading strategies. The aim of this study was to model stock market prices using six international markets as a sample. Design/methodology/approach: This study made use of the Bayesian Time-Varying coefficient for a five-year period from January 2, 2018, to January 2, 2023. Finding: The findings of this study revealed that there is strong empirical evidence that the returns of a security can be modelled using the open, high and low prices. Research limitations/implications: This implies that the drift in stock price movement can be better explained by observing the lag values of the open, high and low prices which may be an important tool for short term traders and incorporated in volatility estimation. Also, the lag values of the open, high and low price movements explain more than 98% of changes in the closing price. Originality/value: As per the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to model stock market prices using the open, high and low prices for multiple international markets.
{"title":"Modelling Stock Market Prices Using the Open, High and Closes Prices. Evidence from International Financial Markets","authors":"Samuel Tabot Enow","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.153.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.153.04","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: Modelling security prices seem to be an ending debate in finance literature due to no clear consensus on behavioral patterns. Knowledge of stock price movement has always been an important source of information that is much needed in asset pricing and trading strategies. The aim of this study was to model stock market prices using six international markets as a sample. Design/methodology/approach: This study made use of the Bayesian Time-Varying coefficient for a five-year period from January 2, 2018, to January 2, 2023. Finding: The findings of this study revealed that there is strong empirical evidence that the returns of a security can be modelled using the open, high and low prices. Research limitations/implications: This implies that the drift in stock price movement can be better explained by observing the lag values of the open, high and low prices which may be an important tool for short term traders and incorporated in volatility estimation. Also, the lag values of the open, high and low price movements explain more than 98% of changes in the closing price. Originality/value: As per the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to model stock market prices using the open, high and low prices for multiple international markets.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49661436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose: The paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment on unemployment in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses annual data spanning from 1990 to 2020 and employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique. Findings: The paper found that unemployment has a long-run relationship with foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, export and gross capital formation. Foreign direct investment and GDP has a negative long-run relationship with unemployment. On the contrary, export of goods and services positively relate to unemployment in the long-run devoid of gender. Lastly, we also found a mediating effect of GDP on FDI in reducing unemployment rate in Ghana. Research limitations/implications: The finding that export of goods and services relate positively with unemployment in the long run does not necessarily imply that Ghana should stop exporting goods and services in order to solve unemployment challenges in the country. Rather we should adopt the attitude of adding value to our raw products before exporting. And to reduce unemployment in the country, government should adopt incentivized tax policies to foreign investors to attract more FDI inflows into the economy. Originality/value: Not only does the present paper extend to more recent data, but it is also the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge in studying the nexus between FDI and unemployment rate in Ghana and also bringing to bear the gender dynamics of such relationship.
{"title":"Unemployment and Foreign Direct Investment Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Ghana","authors":"Abdul-Malik Abdulai","doi":"10.25103/ijbesar.152.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.152.05","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment on unemployment in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses annual data spanning from 1990 to 2020 and employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique. Findings: The paper found that unemployment has a long-run relationship with foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, export and gross capital formation. Foreign direct investment and GDP has a negative long-run relationship with unemployment. On the contrary, export of goods and services positively relate to unemployment in the long-run devoid of gender. Lastly, we also found a mediating effect of GDP on FDI in reducing unemployment rate in Ghana. Research limitations/implications: The finding that export of goods and services relate positively with unemployment in the long run does not necessarily imply that Ghana should stop exporting goods and services in order to solve unemployment challenges in the country. Rather we should adopt the attitude of adding value to our raw products before exporting. And to reduce unemployment in the country, government should adopt incentivized tax policies to foreign investors to attract more FDI inflows into the economy. Originality/value: Not only does the present paper extend to more recent data, but it is also the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge in studying the nexus between FDI and unemployment rate in Ghana and also bringing to bear the gender dynamics of such relationship.","PeriodicalId":31341,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47835620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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