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RISK PERCEPTION AND ATTITUDES IN ALBANIA: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY 阿尔巴尼亚的风险认知和态度:一项探索性研究
Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.22190/fueo210517019z
Albi Zylfo, Elona Pojani
This paper analyses risk perception and attitudes toward risk in Albanian society. It principally focuses on how age affects risk tolerance, even though also gender impact is taken into account. To particular interest is the shift in risk perception of the individuals before and after the fall of communism. The authors have embraced an exploratory research, using qualitative data from interviews. By considering two groups of participants, those older than 35 and younger than 35, the paper makes distinctions between risk attitude of both groups. In addition, the differences in responses between genders have been analyzed. The paper draws conclusions on the role of age and gender in relation to risk perception by aligning it with main conclusions of academic literature on these aspects. It further discusses the role of the social environment before and after the fall of communism and its effect on the risk tolerance profile of Albanians.
本文分析了阿尔巴尼亚社会的风险认知和风险态度。它主要关注年龄如何影响风险承受能力,尽管性别影响也被考虑在内。特别令人感兴趣的是,在共产主义垮台前后,个人对风险认知的变化。作者采用了一种探索性研究,使用访谈中的定性数据。通过考虑35岁以上和35岁以下两组参与者,本文对两组参与者的风险态度进行了区分。此外,还分析了性别之间的反应差异。本文通过将年龄和性别与这些方面的学术文献的主要结论结合起来,得出了与风险感知有关的作用的结论。它进一步讨论了共产主义垮台前后社会环境的作用及其对阿尔巴尼亚人的风险承受能力的影响。
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引用次数: 0
HOW DID COVID-19 PANDEMIC AFFECT THE TOURISM INDEX IN BORSA ISTANBUL? 2019冠状病毒病大流行如何影响博尔萨伊斯坦布尔的旅游指数?
Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.22190/fueo210501016o
Ercan Özen, Letife Özdemir
This study aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Turkey's tourism sector. In the study, for the period 12 March 2020 - 31 August 2020 the daily data of the BIST tourism stock index and Covid-19 case and death counts in Turkey were used. The cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 pandemic and the BIST tourism index was investigated with the ARDL bound test. In addition, the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the BIST tourism index was tested with the FMOLS regression method. As a result of the ARDL bound test, it was determined that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 case and death numbers and the BIST tourism index. According to the FMOLS regression model results, it is seen that the deaths of Covid 19 significantly affect the tourism index. A 1% increase in the number of deaths causes the BIST tourism index to decrease by 0.08%. The coefficient of the number of Covid-19 cases is not significant, showing that the number of cases does not have a sufficient effect on the tourism index.
本研究旨在调查Covid-19大流行对土耳其旅游业的影响。在这项研究中,在2020年3月12日至2020年8月31日期间,使用了BIST旅游股票指数的每日数据以及土耳其的Covid-19病例和死亡人数。采用ARDL结合检验研究新冠肺炎大流行与北京科技大学旅游指数之间的协整关系。此外,采用FMOLS回归方法检验新冠肺炎疫情对北京科技大学旅游指数的影响。ARDL结合检验结果表明,Covid-19病例与死亡人数与BIST旅游指数之间存在长期协整关系。根据FMOLS回归模型结果,新冠肺炎死亡人数显著影响旅游指数。死亡人数每增加1%,BIST旅游指数就会下降0.08%。新增病例数的系数不显著,说明新增病例数对旅游指数影响不充分。
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引用次数: 2
ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF COVID-19 DATA: EVIDENCE FROM NEWCOMB-BENFORD LAW 评估COVID-19数据质量:来自newcomb-benford法的证据
Pub Date : 2021-06-06 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO210326008J
Hrvoje Jošić, Berislav Žmuk
The COVID-19 infection started in Wuhan, China, spreading all over the world, creating global healthcare and economic crisis. Countries all over the world are fighting hard against this pandemic; however, there are doubts on the reported number of cases. In this paper Newcomb-Benford Law is used for the detection of possible false number of reported COVID-19 cases. The analysis, when all countries have been observed together, showed that there is a doubt that countries potentially falsify their data of new COVID-19 cases of infection intentionally. When the analysis was lowered on the individual country level, it was shown that most countries do not diminish their numbers of new COVID-19 cases deliberately. It was found that distributions of COVID-19 data for 15% to 19% of countries for the first digit analysis and 30% to 39% of countries for the last digit analysis do not conform with the Newcomb-Benford Law distribution. Further investigation should be made in this field in order to validate the results of this research. The results obtained from this paper can be important for economic and health policy makers in order to guide COVID-19 surveillance and implement public health policy measures.
新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID-19)从中国武汉开始扩散到世界各地,引发了全球性的医疗危机和经济危机。世界各国都在努力抗击疫情;然而,对报告的病例数存在疑问。本文采用Newcomb-Benford定律检测可能存在的虚报病例数。在对所有国家进行了综合观察后,这项分析表明,各国有可能故意伪造其COVID-19新发感染病例数据,这是有疑问的。当降低单个国家层面的分析时,结果表明,大多数国家并没有故意减少新发病例数。研究发现,15%至19%的国家的第一个数字分析和30%至39%的国家的最后一个数字分析的COVID-19数据分布不符合纽科姆-本福德定律。为了验证本研究的结果,需要在这一领域进行进一步的调查。本文获得的结果对于经济和卫生政策制定者指导COVID-19监测和实施公共卫生政策措施具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 2
ARE COSTS STICKY? EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA 成本是粘性的吗?来自塞尔维亚的证据
Pub Date : 2021-04-23 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO201102006J
Jovana Jugović
This paper is focused on the theory of sticky costs, created out of researches which pointed to the fact that costs do not act symmetrically in the case of equivalent increase and decrease of the activity volume, as it is implied by the traditional cost theory. Deliberate business decisions, the ones made in order to increase company’s value, as well as opportunistic decisions aimed at the realization of managers' personal goals are found as some of essential causes of cost stickiness. In order to examine the phenomenon of stickiness in the cost behavior of companies that operate in Serbia, we conducted a research on a sample of 917 medium and large companies from manufacturing sector for the period 2007 – 2016. The analysis of panel data pointed to the presence of stickiness in the behavior of operating costs - it showed that they grow by 0.847% as revenues grow by 1%, and they fall by 0.718 % due to 1% drop in revenues. We also found a lagged adjustment to operating costs for changes in operating revenues and partial reversal of stickiness in the period after a revenue decrease.
本文着重研究了粘性成本理论,该理论是在传统成本理论所暗示的,指出在活动量等价增加和减少的情况下,成本不是对称作用的研究基础上产生的。深思熟虑的商业决策,即为增加公司价值而做出的决策,以及旨在实现经理个人目标的机会主义决策,都是成本粘性的一些根本原因。为了检验在塞尔维亚运营的公司成本行为中的粘性现象,我们对2007-2016年期间917家制造业中大型公司的样本进行了研究。对面板数据的分析指出,运营成本行为存在粘性——结果显示,收入增长1%,运营成本增长0.847%,收入下降1%,运营费用下降0.718%。我们还发现,在收入减少后的一段时间内,由于营业收入的变化和粘性的部分逆转,营业成本的调整滞后。
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引用次数: 0
TESTING HECKSCHER-OHLIN-VANEK THEOREM BY USING NORMALIZED TRADE BALANCE APPROACH 用归一化贸易平衡法检验HECKSCHER-OHLIN-VANEK定理
Pub Date : 2021-04-23 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO201102002Z
Berislav Žmuk, Hrvoje Jošić
The study described here introduces new approach for testing the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem based on the normalized trade balance concept. The intention was to include in the analysis all countries worldwide but due to the lack of data a certain number of countries had to be excluded. Overall 111 countries were observed according to region and income level for the year 2014. The HOV model was estimated using the sign test. It compared the expected sign of the normalized trade balance or net exports, according to the SITC 2 product classification, with the relative endowment of production factors intensively used in the production of a specific product. Production factors were divided into groups such as produced capital, labour force and natural resources further divided into forests, metals and minerals, oil, coal and gas, pastureland and cropland. Researchers in R&D per million people variable represented the impact of technological differences across countries. The results of the sign test have shown that the HOV theorem held in 55% of cases. The percentage of matched signs was highest for the non-OECD high income countries (75%) and lowest for the lower middle income and low income countries (below 50%).
本文介绍了一种基于归一化贸易平衡概念的检验Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek(HOV)定理的新方法。其目的是将世界各地的所有国家纳入分析,但由于缺乏数据,不得不将一定数量的国家排除在外。根据2014年的区域和收入水平,总共观察了111个国家。HOV模型使用符号检验进行估计。根据SITC 2产品分类,它将正常化贸易平衡或净出口的预期迹象与特定产品生产中密集使用的生产要素的相对禀赋进行了比较。生产要素分为生产资本、劳动力和自然资源等组,进一步分为森林、金属和矿产、石油、煤炭和天然气、牧场和农田。研究人员在每百万人的研发变量中代表了各国技术差异的影响。符号检验的结果表明,HOV定理在55%的情况下成立。匹配迹象的百分比在非经合组织高收入国家最高(75%),在中低收入和低收入国家最低(低于50%)。
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引用次数: 0
THE IMPORTANCE OF MARKETING COMMUNICATION FOR ATTRACTING AND RETAINING INSURANCE SERVICE USERS 营销传播对吸引和留住保险服务用户的重要性
Pub Date : 2021-04-23 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO201130007P
S. Popović, M. Avramović
The assumption of successful marketing communication within the service sector is the establishment of two-way interactive communication between service users and service companies. The aim of the strategy of marketing communication is attracting new users, but also retaining the existing users of services and establishing long-term relations with them. A successful achievement of the aim of marketing communication requires that the marketing message is created according to the characteristics and preferences of the target audience. The role of marketing communication differs depending on the stage of the selling process. During the pre-purchase stage, the aim of marketing communication is to inform potential users so that they could create preferences towards the company’s offer. By applying the adequate forms of marketing communication during the stage of using the service, the company tends to explain to and introduce users to the process of servicing and to provide support in solving the occurring problems. The confirmation of users’ positive impressions and the resolution of possible problems which can occur during the process of service provision represent the aim of marketing communication during the post-purchase stage.
服务业成功营销传播的前提是在服务用户和服务公司之间建立双向互动沟通。营销传播策略的目的是吸引新用户,同时保留现有的服务用户并与他们建立长期关系。营销传播目标的成功实现需要根据目标受众的特点和偏好来创建营销信息。营销传播的作用因销售过程的阶段而异。在预购阶段,营销沟通的目的是告知潜在用户,以便他们能够对公司的报价产生偏好。通过在使用服务的阶段应用适当的营销沟通形式,公司倾向于向用户解释和介绍服务过程,并为解决出现的问题提供支持。确认用户的积极印象并解决服务提供过程中可能出现的问题,是购买后阶段营销沟通的目的。
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引用次数: 1
THE NIGERIAN INSURANCE INDUSTRY COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: THE ROLE OF INNOVATION CAPABILITY 尼日利亚保险业竞争优势:创新能力的作用
Pub Date : 2021-04-23 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO201211005A
S. Adebisi, J. M. Odiachi, A. A. Sulaimon
Emerging technologies have given rise to greater opportunities within the insurance sector with innovations upturning the traditional business model. This study examined competitive advantage and the relationship with innovation capability in Nigerian insurance sector. Employing a cross sectional research design, the study utilised primary data obtained from selected insurance companies through the use of a structured questionnaire. Multistage sampling technique was used and data collected was analysed using regression analysis. The findings revealed innovation capability had a significant influence on competitive advantage. The study concluded that there was a need to pay attention to this capability with a capacity to boost the activities of the industry and recommendations were made.
新兴技术为保险业带来了更大的机会,创新颠覆了传统的商业模式。本研究考察了尼日利亚保险业的竞争优势及其与创新能力的关系。该研究采用了横断面研究设计,通过使用结构化问卷,利用了从选定的保险公司获得的主要数据。使用多阶段抽样技术,并使用回归分析对收集的数据进行分析。研究结果表明,创新能力对竞争优势有显著影响。该研究得出的结论是,有必要关注这一能力,以促进该行业的活动,并提出了建议。
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引用次数: 1
SUSTAINABILITY RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY 数字经济中的可持续性风险管理
Pub Date : 2021-04-23 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO201102004S
J. Stanković, Evica Petrović, Jovica M. Stankovic
The problem of sustainable development has become an imperative of globalization, which resolutely sets the request for companies to operate socially responsibly, i.e., to create value in a manner that is sustainable in the future by achieving economic, environmental and social goals. The wave of change, conditioned by digital transformation, is considered an opportunity, but also a challenge for the realization of the concept of sustainable development. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to consider the risks of sustainable business emerging from the implementation of ICT in the business process, with focus on the companies in the Republic of Serbia.
可持续发展问题已成为全球化的当务之急,全球化坚决要求公司负社会责任地经营,即通过实现经济、环境和社会目标,以未来可持续的方式创造价值。以数字化转型为条件的变革浪潮被认为是实现可持续发展概念的机遇,但也是挑战。因此,本文的目的是考虑在商业过程中实施信息和通信技术所产生的可持续商业风险,重点关注塞尔维亚共和国的公司。
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引用次数: 0
POPULATION AGEING AND WELFARE DISSIMILARITIES WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A NEW APPROACH BASED ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS 欧盟内部人口老龄化与福利差异:基于聚类分析的新方法
Pub Date : 2021-02-04 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO201226003C
M. Cristea, G. Noja, Y. Thalassinos
The research aims to identify several dissimilarities between the European Union Member States (EU-27 MS) in terms of welfare and labour market dimensions under the sheer implications of the ageing phenomenon. The quantitative research methodology emphasizes the cluster analysis based on the Ward method, performed for the year 2018. Main results denote that only two countries (Denmark and Sweden) registered soaring performances, especially for the labour market credentials (particularly the employment rate and active policies). Other 10 EU-27 MS accounted medium performances in terms of well-being, but also the lowest achievements as regards the old dependency rate, the employment rate of persons aged 55-64 and the birth rate. This paper brings to the fore the keen need to redesign specific policies and tailored strategies by the responsible authorities and business representatives across the EU, in order to enhance achievements and new solutions for the difficulties brought by population ageing, with spillover effects on the labour market integration of older employees and overall economic welfare. The study stands out through the new integrative approach based on cluster analysis that underlines the dissimilarities between the EU member states, and the features of each group of countries, in a pre-settled framework, thus grasping the difficulties, but also the opportunities faced in terms of ageing and economic welfare.
这项研究旨在确定在老龄化现象的纯粹影响下,欧洲联盟成员国(欧盟27国)在福利和劳动力市场方面的几个不同之处。定量研究方法强调基于2018年进行的Ward方法的聚类分析。主要结果表明,只有两个国家(丹麦和瑞典)的表现飙升,特别是在劳动力市场资格(特别是就业率和积极政策)方面。其他10名欧盟27国MS在幸福感方面表现中等,但在老年抚养率、55-64岁人群的就业率和出生率方面成绩最低。这篇论文突出表明,欧盟各地的主管当局和企业代表迫切需要重新设计具体政策和量身定制的战略,以提高成就和新的解决方案,解决人口老龄化带来的困难,并对老年员工的劳动力市场一体化和整体经济福利产生溢出效应。该研究通过基于聚类分析的新综合方法脱颖而出,该方法在预先确定的框架内强调了欧盟成员国之间的差异以及每组国家的特点,从而抓住了困难,也抓住了老龄化和经济福利方面面临的机遇。
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引用次数: 0
Credit scoring with an ensemble deep learning classification methods – comparison with tradicional methods 信用评分与集成深度学习分类方法——与传统方法的比较
Pub Date : 2021-02-04 DOI: 10.22190/FUEO201028001R
O. Radović, Srđan Marinković, Jelena Radojičić
Credit scoring attracts special attention of financial institutions. In recent years, deep learning methods have been particularly interesting. In this paper, we compare the performance of ensemble deep learning methods based on decision trees with the best traditional method, logistic regression, and the machine learning method benchmark, support vector machines. Each method tests several different algorithms. We use different performance indicators. The research focuses on standard datasets relevant for this type of classification, the Australian and German datasets. The best method, according to the MCC indicator, proves to be the ensemble method with boosted decision trees. Also, on average, ensemble methods prove to be more successful than SVM.
信用评分引起了金融机构的特别关注。近年来,深度学习方法特别有趣。在本文中,我们将基于决策树的集成深度学习方法与最佳传统方法逻辑回归和机器学习方法基准支持向量机的性能进行了比较。每种方法都测试几种不同的算法。我们使用不同的绩效指标。这项研究的重点是与这类分类相关的标准数据集,即澳大利亚和德国的数据集。根据MCC指标,证明最佳方法是具有增强决策树的集成方法。此外,平均而言,集成方法被证明比SVM更成功。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Facta Universitatis Series Economics and Organization
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