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Fiscal Multipliers in Bad Times: Does the Nature of a Recession Matter? 不景气时期的财政乘数:经济衰退的性质重要吗?
Pub Date : 2020-08-17 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N12020.75017
N. Borsoi, V. Teles
The literature measuring the magnitude of the fiscal multiplier has a considerable consensus that the stimulative effects of fiscal instruments depends on the current state of economic activity, whether it is expanding or facing a recession. However, none of the previous works studied how the nature of an economic downturn, if the economy is facing an adverse supply/demand shock, affects the effectiveness of fiscal expansions. We introduce in a simple New Keynesian model with a rich description of fiscal policy, the assumption of imperfectly informed policymakers (fiscal and monetary) to approach the question. Our results point out the existence of disparate effects of fiscal policy depending on whether the economy is facing a demand or a supply recession. Yet, we find out that cuts in taxes are an effective tool to counter the effects of adverse shocks on economic activity and aggregate consumption.
衡量财政乘数大小的文献有一个相当大的共识,即财政工具的刺激效果取决于经济活动的当前状态,无论是扩张还是面临衰退。然而,之前的研究都没有研究在经济面临不利的供给/需求冲击时,经济衰退的性质如何影响财政扩张的有效性。我们引入了一个简单的新凯恩斯主义模型,该模型对财政政策进行了丰富的描述,假设政策制定者(财政和货币)不完全知情,以解决这个问题。我们的研究结果指出,财政政策存在不同的影响,这取决于经济是面临需求衰退还是供应衰退。然而,我们发现减税是一种有效的工具,以抵消不利冲击对经济活动和总消费的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of asset frequency components on value-at-risk in emerging and developed markets 新兴市场和发达市场资产频率成分对风险价值的影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v40n12020.77437
M. Biage, Pierre Joseph Nelcide
Value-at-Risk was estimated using the technique of wavelet decomposition with goal to analyze the frequency components' impacts on variances of daily stock returns, and on  forecasts. Daily returns of twenty-one shares of the Ibovespa and daily returns of twenty-two shares of the DJIA were used. The  model was applied to the reconstructed returns to model and establish the prediction of conditional variance, applying the rolling window technique. The Value-at-Risk was then estimated, and the results showed that the DJIA shares showed more efficient market behavior than those of Ibovespa. The differences in behavior induces to affirm that VaRs, used in the analysis of financial assets from different markets with different governance premises, should be estimated by series of returns reconstructed by aggregations of components of different frequencies. A set of back-testing was applied to confront the estimated , which demonstrated that the estimation of  models are consistent.
利用小波分解技术估计风险价值,分析频率分量对股票日收益方差和预测的影响。Ibovespa的日收益为21股,道琼斯工业平均指数的日收益为22股。将该模型应用于重建收益模型,并应用滚动窗技术建立条件方差预测。然后对风险价值进行估计,结果表明DJIA股票比Ibovespa股票表现出更有效的市场行为。这种行为上的差异表明,在分析具有不同治理前提的不同市场的金融资产时,var应该通过不同频率成分的聚合重建的一系列收益来估计。对估计进行了一组回溯检验,结果表明模型的估计是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
A note on the estimation of minimum tracking error portfolios 关于最小跟踪误差组合估计的注释
Pub Date : 2020-08-17 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N12020.79437
Paulo Ferreira Naibert, J. Caldeira, A. P. Santos
Minimum tracking error portfolios are often implemented by portfolio managers in order to track the performance of a benchmark asset in terms of risk and return. This note provides an analytical derivation of the minimum tracking error portfolios of excess returns on a benchmark by relying on the regression-based approach to portfolio weights proposed in Kempf and Memmel (2006). This approach allows estimating the weights of the minimum tracking error portfolios by means of a simple OLS regression.
最小跟踪误差投资组合通常由投资组合经理实现,以便在风险和回报方面跟踪基准资产的表现。本文根据Kempf和Memmel(2006)提出的基于回归的投资组合权重方法,对基准上超额收益的最小跟踪误差组合进行了分析推导。这种方法允许通过简单的OLS回归来估计最小跟踪误差组合的权重。
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引用次数: 0
Incentives in Brazilian Bolsa Família CCT Program: Adverse selection, moral hazard, improving mechanisms and simulations 巴西Bolsa Família有条件现金转移支付计划的激励机制:逆向选择、道德风险、改进机制和模拟
Pub Date : 2020-08-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v40n12020.79098
M. Bugarin, Sérgio Gadelha, A. Santos, J. Duarte, João B. Amaral, J. A. Neves, Plínio Portela de Oliveira, R. Regatieri
The Bolsa Familia CCT Program (BFP) has successfully reduced poverty in Brazil. However, the theoretical literature on associated economic incentives is scarce. A mechanism-design analysis identifies problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in the BFP. The paper proposes simple improving incentive-mechanisms. The Citizens’ Contribution Mechanism (CCM) requires beneficiaries to devote time to the PBF encouraging recipients with higher income to leave. The Graduation Mechanism (GM) offers financial incentives to ensure sustainable emancipation of qualified beneficiaries. The Human Capital Incentive Mechanism (HCM) increases transfers to efficient municipalities. We show that the CCM solves the adverse selection problem, the GM solves the moral hazard problem of beneficiaries and the HCM solves a moral hazard problem of local managers. A simulation based on 2010 census data shows that the mechanisms allow, within 6 years, significant increases in the reach and precision of the PBF and yields cost reductions of over R$4.6 billion.
家庭津贴有条件现金转移支付项目(BFP)成功地减少了巴西的贫困。然而,相关经济激励的理论文献却很少。机制设计分析确定了BFP中的逆向选择和道德风险问题。本文提出了简单完善的激励机制。公民贡献机制(CCM)要求受益人在PBF上投入时间,鼓励收入较高的受助人离开。毕业机制(GM)提供财政激励,以确保合格受益人的可持续解放。人力资本激励机制(HCM)增加了向高效市政当局的转移。结果表明,CCM解决了逆向选择问题,GM解决了受益人的道德风险问题,HCM解决了地方管理者的道德风险问题。基于2010年人口普查数据的模拟表明,该机制允许在6年内显著提高PBF的覆盖范围和精度,并减少超过46亿雷亚尔的成本。
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引用次数: 0
Evidence on search costs under hyperinflation in Brazil: The effect of Plano Real 恶性通货膨胀下巴西搜索成本的证据:Plano Real的影响
Pub Date : 2020-06-26 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v40n12020.80912
J. Araújo, Mauro Rodrigues
Plano Real put an end to hyperinflation in 1994 and significantly altered price-setting behavior in Brazil. This paper investigates the impact of Plano Real on search frictions. We estimate a nonsequential search model for homogeneous goods to structurally retrieve consumers' search costs. The dataset comprises 11,673 store-level price quotes collected from 1993 to 1995 by FIPE to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the city of São Paulo. The strategy consists of using Plano Real as a structural breakpoint in the data. We estimate the model splitting the data into before (Jan-93 to Jun-94) and after (Aug-94 to Dec-95) the plan, and we find evidence on first-order stochastic dominance of the search-cost distribution of the former into the latter; that is, search costs are higher during hyperinflation. The majority of consumers search only once or twice before buying an item, but this share is marginally higher during hyperinflation (84% vs 79%). In addition, after Plano Real, a larger share of consumers are willing to quote prices in all stores before committing to a purchase. We also document evidence of the effect of the plan on shrinking price-cost margins. When searching is less costly, stores lose market power.
1994年,Plano Real结束了恶性通货膨胀,并显著改变了巴西的价格设定行为。本文研究了Plano Real对搜索摩擦的影响。我们估计了一个同质商品的非顺序搜索模型,以结构化地检索消费者的搜索成本。该数据集包括FIPE从1993年到1995年收集的11,673个商店价格报价,用于计算圣保罗市的消费者价格指数(CPI)。该策略包括使用Plano Real作为数据中的结构断点。我们将数据分成计划前(1993年1月至1994年6月)和计划后(1994年8月至1995年12月)对模型进行估计,发现前者的搜索成本分布对后者具有一阶随机优势;也就是说,在恶性通货膨胀期间,搜索成本更高。大多数消费者在购买商品前只搜索一两次,但在恶性通货膨胀期间,这一比例略高(84%对79%)。此外,在Plano Real之后,更大比例的消费者愿意在所有商店报价后才决定购买。我们还记录了该计划对不断缩小的价格成本利润率的影响的证据。当搜索成本降低时,商店就失去了市场支配力。
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引用次数: 0
Existence and Non-Triviality of Equilibria in Economies with Default and Government 违约与政府经济均衡的存在性与非平凡性
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v39n22019.78570
J. Orrillo, Jolive de Santana Filho Filho
This paper attempts  to accommodate the government into  Dubey, Geanakoplos and Shubik (2005) framework  in an explicit way, and proves that a non-trivial equilibrium  exists. By non-trivial equilibrium, we mean an equilibrium where there exists trading in the financial markets and some private borrower defaults. The government,  characterised by its spending and tax  plansfootnote{Both are assumed to be exogenous like in Gale (1990).},  enters our economic model  by trading financial assets  in order to balance  its budget. Proof of existence  is made by considering a generalised  game `a la Debreu (1952)footnote{Already well  known  in the GEI literature.}, and its  non-triviality  is obtained by using  the non-differentiable optimisation theory.
本文试图将政府以一种显式的方式纳入Dubey, Geanakoplos和Shubik(2005)的框架,并证明了一个非平凡均衡的存在。所谓非平凡均衡,我们指的是金融市场上存在交易和一些私人借款人违约的均衡。政府以其支出和税收计划footnote{两者都被认为是外生的,就像Gale(1990)一样。}为特征,通过交易金融资产来平衡预算,从而进入我们的经济模式。通过考虑一个广义赛局 la Debreu (1952) footnote{在GEI文献中已经很有名了。}来证明其存在性,并通过使用不可微优化理论获得其非平凡性。
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引用次数: 0
Sanitation and Health: Empirical evidence for Brazilian Municipalities 卫生和健康:巴西市政当局的经验证据
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V39N22019.78963
Enlinson Mattos, Cristine Pinto, L. Teixeira
Despite the fact of being the largest economy in Latin America, piped water service coverage and sewage collection is not universal in Brazil. The relationship between access to water/sanitation and health was the objective of many studies recently. The majority of the existing work focuses on the impact of access to water and sewage, not investigating the effects of water quality and treatment. Moreover, the existing literature usually focuses on infant mortality and life expectancy indicators. Although these measures are important, they may not capture all the relevant public costs associated with health and related to hospitalizations. This paper aims at filling this gap by identifying the effects of sanitation policies on children morbidity rates by certain diseases in Brazilian municipalities.
尽管巴西是拉丁美洲最大的经济体,但管道供水服务覆盖和污水收集在巴西并不普遍。获得水/卫生设施与健康之间的关系是最近许多研究的目标。现有的大部分工作侧重于获取水和污水的影响,而不是调查水质和处理的影响。此外,现有文献通常侧重于婴儿死亡率和预期寿命指标。虽然这些措施很重要,但它们可能无法涵盖与保健和住院有关的所有相关公共费用。本文旨在通过确定卫生政策对巴西各市某些疾病引起的儿童发病率的影响来填补这一空白。
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引用次数: 3
Estimating the returns to education using a parametric control function approach: evidences for a developing country 用参数控制函数方法估计教育收益:发展中国家的证据
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v39n22019.69538
A. Souza, Eduardo Zylberstajn
This paper investigates the causal effect of education on earnings in Brazil by employing a new method proposed by Klein and Vella (2010) that obtains identification on the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. In contrast to traditionally used IV methods, this approach yields unbiased estimates in the absence of instruments. Results indicate that the average return to education in Brazil was relatively stable at around 14% from 1995 to 2003, declined afterwards reaching 10.7% in 2014, but has bounced back to 11.8% after the economic crisis in 2015. The results suggest that the OLS estimations are downward biased and we interpret this as a sign of under-education premiums that are likely to occur in environments where the more talented ones are dropped from school and moved into the labor market earlier in life.
本文采用Klein和Vella(2010)提出的新方法对巴西教育对收入的因果效应进行了研究,该方法对条件异方差的存在进行了识别。与传统的IV方法相比,这种方法在没有仪器的情况下产生无偏估计。结果表明,1995年至2003年,巴西的平均教育回报率相对稳定在14%左右,之后有所下降,2014年达到10.7%,但在2015年经济危机后又反弹至11.8%。结果表明,OLS估计是向下倾斜的,我们将其解释为教育溢价不足的迹象,这种溢价可能发生在更有才华的人从学校辍学并在生命早期进入劳动力市场的环境中。
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引用次数: 1
Winners and Losers from China's Ascension in International Trade: a Structural Approach 中国国际贸易崛起中的赢家与输家:一个结构性的视角
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V39N22019.80268
Francisco J M Costa, J. Pessoa
This paper employs a unified theoretical framework to estimate the effect of changes within China on the Brazilian and World's economy. Based on the Ricardian model of trade of Costinot et al. (2012), we perform counterfactuals exercises to analyze how industries in Brazil would have performed in the absence of the Chinese ascension. We discuss two main counterfactual exercises. First, we model productivity growth in China as the main lever by which Chinese supply and demand conditions evolve and affect economies worldwide. Second, we study how changes in composition of Chinese demand (taste) affects trade flows around the world. The two counterfactual exercises together suggest that changes in China's comparative advantage hampered manufacturing sectors abroad, in particular labor -intensive Brazilian manufacture producers. We find no support for the idea of a China taste shock driving demand towards raw materials. Our model suggests that if China triggered a commodity boom in the world, or at least in Brazil, this was driven mostly by increased income in China. And any changes in China's tastes over products contributed to moderate such boom. Specifically, our model indicates that the boom of soybeans cultivation in Brazil is due to changes in Brazilian comparative advantage paired with a level increase in demand for this product within China.
本文采用统一的理论框架来估计中国内部的变化对巴西和世界经济的影响。基于Costinot等人(2012)的李嘉图贸易模型,我们进行了反事实练习,以分析在没有中国崛起的情况下巴西的行业会如何表现。我们讨论两个主要的反事实练习。首先,我们将中国的生产率增长模型作为中国供需状况演变并影响全球经济的主要杠杆。其次,我们研究了中国需求构成(口味)的变化如何影响全球贸易流动。这两项反事实的研究表明,中国比较优势的变化阻碍了海外制造业的发展,尤其是劳动密集型的巴西制造业。我们没有发现支持中国口味冲击推动原材料需求的说法。我们的模型表明,如果中国引发了全球(或至少在巴西)大宗商品的繁荣,那么这主要是由中国收入的增加所推动的。中国人对产品品味的任何变化都有助于缓和这种繁荣。具体来说,我们的模型表明,巴西大豆种植的繁荣是由于巴西比较优势的变化与中国对该产品需求的增加相结合。
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引用次数: 0
Wage gap decomposition models: A methodological contribution 工资差距分解模型:方法上的贡献
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v39n22019.75416
Magno Rogerio Gomes, Solange de Cassia Inforzato de Souza, Gabriela Gomes Mantovani, Vanessa Fortunato de Paiva
This article aims to introduce a methodological contribution to the wage decomposition, from the traditional decomposition of Oaxaca–Blinder. Specifically, we review the usual wage decomposition models and proposes a new technique that do not choose an advantage/disadvantage group in advance, a solution to the index problem, one of the most present criticisms in the decomposition salary of Oaxaca–Blinder. It is based on the analysis of the current wages of the analyzed groups, and not on the impacts of the income that the individuals should have, as usually appears in the models of decomposition. It applies the gender wage decomposition procedures in the Brazilian labor market, under the different approaches, from the microdata of the PNAD of 2015, which confirm the wage differences and discrimination between men and women. Finally, this article contributes to the decision on empirical strategies in the field of wage inequalities and, particularly, their interpretation.
本文旨在从传统的瓦哈卡-布林德工资分解入手,介绍一种对工资分解的方法论贡献。具体而言,我们回顾了常用的工资分解模型,并提出了一种不预先选择优势/劣势群体的新技术,解决了目前对瓦哈卡-布林德尔工资分解的最大批评之一——指数问题。它是基于对被分析群体的当前工资的分析,而不是基于个人收入的影响,这通常出现在分解模型中。本文运用巴西劳动力市场性别工资分解程序,在不同的方法下,从2015年PNAD的微观数据,证实了男女之间的工资差异和歧视。最后,本文有助于决定工资不平等领域的实证策略,特别是对其解释。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Brazilian Review of Econometrics
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