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A Study of the Brazilian business cycles (1900 – 2012) 巴西经济周期研究(1900 - 2012)
Pub Date : 2014-03-24 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V33N22013.17176
Pedro L. Valls Pereira, Heleno Piazentini Vieira
This paper studies the Brazilian business cycles in the period of 1900 to 2012. Since the quarterly series of the actual GDP only starts in 1980 we had to build the series for the period of 1900 to 1979, using the time series structural model with temporal disaggregation for the first period. After that, a Markov switching model is proposed to build a chronology of the business cycles. The chosen model has two separate regimes with different scenarios of expansion and recession, and the dating carried out in this paper is compared with other studies on the theme, and characterizations for the growth phases that can support studies of the economic history in Brazil are proposed.
本文研究了1900年至2012年期间巴西的经济周期。由于实际GDP的季度序列从1980年才开始,我们必须建立1900年至1979年的序列,使用时间序列结构模型对第一个时期进行时间分解。在此基础上,提出了一个马尔可夫切换模型来建立经济周期的年表。所选择的模型有两个独立的制度,具有不同的扩张和衰退情景,本文进行的日期与其他研究的主题进行了比较,并提出了可以支持巴西经济史研究的增长阶段特征。
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引用次数: 5
Non-Parametric Pricing of Interest Rates Options 利率期权的非参数定价
Pub Date : 2014-03-24 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.13534
M. Laurini, R. Mauad
The pricing models for interest rates derivatives largely used today employ, many times,excessively restrictive premises in regards to the underlying assets' volatility. The Black and Scholes and the Vasicek methods, for example, consider the variance of the series as constant in time and among different maturities, assumption that may not be themost adequate in all cases. In this paper we discuss the non-parametric estimation of the volatility function using a kernel regression technique and later the pricing of options in a Gaussian HJM model. We analyzed different possible specifications for the non-parametric estimation using the Monte Carlo simulations to price options on zero coupon bonds. We also carried out an empirical study using the proposed methodologyfor the pricing of IDI Index options in the Brazilian market..
目前广泛使用的利率衍生品定价模型,很多时候在考虑标的资产的波动性时,都采用了过于严格的前提。例如,Black、Scholes和Vasicek方法认为序列的方差随时间和不同期限的变化是常数,这种假设可能并不适用于所有情况。本文讨论了高斯HJM模型中波动性函数的非参数估计和期权的定价问题。我们利用蒙特卡罗模拟分析了零息债券期权定价的非参数估计的不同可能规范。我们还对巴西市场的IDI指数期权定价方法进行了实证研究。
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引用次数: 0
Combining Strategies for the Estimation of Treatment Effects 治疗效果评估的综合策略
Pub Date : 2013-12-05 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V32N12012.7290
Sergio Firpo, Rafael de Carvalho Cayres Pinto
Uma ferramenta importante na avaliacao de politicas economicas e a estimacao do efeito medio de um programa ou tratamento sobre uma variavel de interesse. Em geral, a atribuicao do tratamento aos potenciais participantes nao e aleatoria, o que pode causar vies de selecao quando desconsiderada. Uma maneira de resolver esse problema e supor que o econometrista observa um conjunto de caracteristicas determinantes, a menos de um componente estritamente aleatorio, da participacao. Sob esta hipotese, existem na literatura estimadores semiparametricos do efeito medio do tratamento que sao consistentes e capazes de atingir, assintoticamente, o limite de e ciencia semiparametrico. Entretanto, nas amostras frequentemente disponiveis, o desempenho desses metodos nem sempre e satisfatorio. O objetivo deste trabalho e estudar como a combinacao das duas estrategias pode produzir estimadores com melhores propriedades em amostras pequenas. Para isto, consideramos duas formas de integrar essas abordagens, tendo como referencial teorico a literatura de estimacao duplamente robusta desenvolvida por James Robins e co-autores. Analisamos suas propriedades e discutimos por que podem superar o uso isolado de cada uma das tecnicas que os compoem. Finalmente, comparamos, num exercicio de Monte Carlo, o desempenho desses estimadores com os de imputacao e reponderacao. Os resultados mostram que a combinacao de estrategias pode reduzir o vies e a variância, mas isso depende da forma como e implementada. Concluimos que a escolha dos parâmetros de suavizacao e decisiva para o desempenho da estimacao em amostras de tamanho moderado.
评估经济政策和估计方案或治疗对利益变量的平均影响的重要工具。一般来说,对潜在参与者的治疗分配不是随机的,如果不考虑,可能会导致选择生命。解决这个问题的一种方法是假设计量经济学家观察到一组决定性特征,除非是严格随机的参与成分。在这种假设下,文献中有一致的半参数估计平均处理效果,并能够渐近地达到半参数科学的极限。然而,在经常可用的样品中,这些方法的性能并不总是令人满意的。这项工作的目的是研究这两种策略的结合如何在小样本中产生具有更好性质的估计量。为此,我们考虑了两种方法来整合这些方法,并将James Robins及其合著者开发的双稳健估计文献作为理论参考。我们分析了它们的性质,并讨论了为什么它们可以克服单独使用构成它们的每一种技术。最后,我们在蒙特卡罗练习中比较了这些估计器与imputation和re加权的性能。结果表明,策略组合可以降低vie和方差,但这取决于如何实施。我们的结论是,平滑参数的选择对中等尺寸样品的估计性能至关重要。
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引用次数: 2
Does the Growth Acceleration Program Accelerate Growth 增长加速计划能促进增长吗
Pub Date : 2013-09-17 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.9535
Julio de Alencastro Graça Mereb, Eduardo Zilberman
In this paper, we introduce the required time lag for the public investment to be turned into public capital (time-to-build process) in the neoclassical growth model, as well as distortionary tax rates that are adjusted according to the level of public debt. The purpose is to quantitatively isolate the macroeconomic effects of the increase in public investment observed in PAC (Portuguese acronym for Growth Acceleration Program). Depending on the time lag associated to the time-to-build process and the fiscal adjustment policy,PAC could have led to a GDP decrease between 0.2% and 0.4% in up to four years.
在本文中,我们引入了新古典增长模型中公共投资转化为公共资本所需的时滞(建设时间过程),以及根据公共债务水平调整的扭曲税率。目的是定量地分离在PAC(葡萄牙语增长加速计划的首字母缩写)中观察到的公共投资增加的宏观经济影响。根据与建设过程和财政调整政策相关的时间滞后,PAC可能导致GDP在长达四年的时间内下降0.2%至0.4%。
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引用次数: 0
A Simple Method of Elicitation of Preferences under Risk 风险下偏好的一种简单方法
Pub Date : 2013-08-28 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V31N22011.8139
José Guilherme de Lara Resende, Patricia Langsch Tecles
This study estimates the utility of lotteries and the degree of loss aversion applying the parametric method proposed by citet{abde08} to preferences observed in a computer-based experiment conducted at Universidade de Bras'{i}lia. Most participants displayed risk aversion for gain prospects and risk propensity for loss prospects. Real incentives for loss prospects led to a greater concavity of the utility function than the one estimated by citet{abde08}. We observed reversals in behavior toward risk in the presence of a certain gain or loss in the prospect. Moreover, three different measures of loss aversion are discussed and, when applied to the experimental data, they were more appropriate with its theoretical definition than the most widely used measure of citet{tver92}
本研究估计了彩票的效用和损失厌恶程度,应用citet{abde08}提出的参数方法来观察在universsidade de Brasília进行的基于计算机的实验中观察到的偏好。大多数参与者对收益前景表现出风险厌恶,对损失前景表现出风险倾向。损失前景的实际激励导致效用函数的凹度比citet{abde08}估计的更大。我们观察到,在前景中存在一定的收益或损失时,对风险的行为会发生逆转。此外,本文还讨论了三种不同的损失厌恶度量,当应用于实验数据时,它们比最广泛使用的度量更适合其理论定义 citet{tver92}
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引用次数: 4
Generalized Tests of Investment Fund Performance 投资基金业绩的广义检验
Pub Date : 2013-04-26 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V31N22011.7173
M. Laurini, A. Sanvicente, Rogério da Costa Monteiro
The paper discusses the use of statistical methods in the comparison of investment fund performance indicators. The analysis is based on the robust statistics proposed by Ledoit and Wolf (2008), for the pairwise comparison of funds and two generalizations for sets of multiple investment funds. The multiple investment fund tests use the Wald and Distance Metric statistics, based on estimation by Generalized Method of Moments using HAC matrices. In order to correct power limitations in the GMM estimation in the case of a large number of moment conditions, the test distributions are obtained through block-bootstrap procedures. We applied the proposed procedures to daily return data for the largest 97 actively managed equity funds in the Brazilian market, covering the period from July 2006 to July 2008. The results indicate that there are no significant differences in the performances of the 97 funds in the sample, both in pairwise and joint comparisons, thus providing what is believed to be the first Brazilian market evidence for the so-called herding hypothesis.
本文讨论了统计方法在投资基金绩效指标比较中的应用。分析基于Ledoit和Wolf(2008)提出的稳健统计,用于基金的两两比较和多个投资基金集合的两个概括。多重投资基金检验使用Wald和距离度量统计量,基于HAC矩阵的广义矩量法估计。为了纠正GMM估计在大量矩条件下的功率限制,通过块引导程序获得测试分布。我们将建议的程序应用于巴西市场上最大的97只积极管理的股票基金的日回报数据,涵盖了2006年7月至2008年7月。结果表明,样本中97只基金的业绩在两两比较和联合比较中都没有显著差异,从而为所谓的羊群假说提供了被认为是第一个巴西市场证据。
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引用次数: 2
Human Capital and the Recent Fall of Earnings Inequality in Brazil 人力资本与巴西近期收入不平等程度的下降
Pub Date : 2013-04-25 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V31N22011.7236
Priscilla Albuquerque Tavares, N. Menezes-Filho
Earnings inequality has started to fall in Brazil in recent years, after remaining very high for decades. We describe this decline using a flexible decomposition technique and assess the contributions of education and experience. We conclude that the fall in education earnings differentials and the decline in the dispersion within demographic groups are the main factors leading to the reduction of inequality in Brazil. The paper demonstrates the powerful impact that education can have to reduce inequality.
巴西的收入不平等程度在居高不下数十年后,近年来已开始下降。我们使用灵活的分解技术来描述这种下降,并评估教育和经验的贡献。我们得出的结论是,教育收入差距的缩小和人口群体内部差距的缩小是导致巴西不平等现象减少的主要因素。这篇论文展示了教育对减少不平等的强大影响。
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引用次数: 8
Gender Bias at the Brazilian Superior Labor Court 巴西高等劳动法院的性别偏见
Pub Date : 2013-04-25 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V32N12012.7451
V. Ponczek, Stefânia Grezzana
This paper examines the existence of gender bias within the Brazilian Superior Labor Court SLC(TST). Our analysis utilizes a database comprising all the lawsuits decided by the Brazilian Superior Labor Court SLC(TST) between August 2008 and June 2009. We explore, in particular, the fact that the lawsuits are randomly distributed among the judges (male or female) to analyze if the Reporting Judge's gender has an impact over the result of the lawsuit depending on the worker's gender. The results indicated that if we do not condition on nature of the lawsuit, the judges are not gender-biased. However, when we consider the type of lawsuit to be decided, we noticed that, as to some causes, such as:"salary equalization", "framing and affiliations", female judges tend to favor female individuals, whereas male judges are bent to favor male individuals. Our study enhances a possible institutional mechanism that may, at least, explain part of the salary differential between the genders.
本文研究了巴西高等劳动法院(TST)中存在的性别偏见。我们的分析使用了一个数据库,其中包括2008年8月至2009年6月期间巴西高级劳动法院SLC(TST)裁决的所有诉讼。我们特别探讨了诉讼是随机分布在法官(男性或女性)之间的事实,以分析报告法官的性别是否会根据工人的性别对诉讼结果产生影响。结果表明,如果我们不以诉讼的性质为条件,法官不会有性别偏见。然而,当我们考虑要判决的诉讼类型时,我们注意到,在一些原因上,例如:“薪酬平等”、“陷害和隶属关系”,女性法官倾向于支持女性个体,而男性法官倾向于支持男性个体。我们的研究增强了一种可能的制度机制,至少可以部分解释男女之间的工资差异。
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引用次数: 2
Há assimetria no repasse dos juros bancários de variações na taxa Selic 在银行利率变动的转移上存在不对称
Pub Date : 2013-03-11 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V32N12012.2967
Joao M De Mello, P. Castro
This paper tests and find evidence that support the view that credit interest rates respond more to increases than to decreases in the Central Bank basic interest rate (Selic). This asymmetry is robust to an event analysis, in which the availability of a dataset containing daily information is explored in order to isolate monetary policy shocks on interest rates as the cause of the assymetric response of interest rates, as a shift in the basic interest rate is akin to an increase in marginal cost and thus corresponds to a shift in the supply curve of banks. The econometric identification hypothesis is that banks (supply) react faster to monetary shocks than consumers (demand for credit). The empirical evidence of greater rigidity to Selic decreases contributes to the literature of bank behavior in credit markets and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Brazil.
本文检验并找到证据支持信贷利率对中央银行基本利率(Selic)的上升反应大于下降反应的观点。在事件分析中,这种不对称性是稳健的,其中探索了包含日常信息的数据集的可用性,以便将货币政策对利率的冲击作为利率不对称反应的原因,因为基本利率的变化类似于边际成本的增加,因此对应于银行供给曲线的变化。计量经济学识别假说认为,银行(供给)对货币冲击的反应要快于消费者(信贷需求)。对Selic降低的更大刚性的经验证据有助于信贷市场中银行行为和巴西货币政策传导机制的文献。
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引用次数: 4
Are Dual and Primal Estimations Equivalent in the Presence of Stochastic Errors in Input Demand 在输入需求中存在随机误差时,对偶估计和原始估计是否等价
Pub Date : 2013-03-05 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V31N22011.4065
M. Bittencourt, Armando Vaz Sampaio
This study investigates the primal and dual approaches for production in the presence of stochastic errors in output and input demands, and policy implications when such errors are not taken into account. A synthetic dataset is used to econometrically estimate the primal and dual functions associated with a given technology. Results show that both formulations are unbiased, consistent and efficient, even in the presence of a Cobb-Douglas technology. Not accounting for such errors can lead to wrong policy recommendations in a productive sector. Any kind of policy created to improve the total production of a particular sector should consider these issues before applying them to real data.
本研究探讨了在产出和投入需求中存在随机误差时的原始和双重生产方法,以及不考虑此类误差时的政策影响。合成数据集用于计量估计与给定技术相关的原始函数和对偶函数。结果表明,即使在柯布-道格拉斯技术的存在下,这两种配方都是无偏的、一致的和有效的。不考虑这些错误可能会导致生产部门提出错误的政策建议。任何旨在提高某一特定部门总产量的政策,在将其应用于实际数据之前,都应该考虑到这些问题。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Brazilian Review of Econometrics
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