Pub Date : 2023-04-17DOI: 10.12660/bre.v41n22021.85461
Enlinson Mattos, Priscilla Bacalhau, V. Ponczek
This paper decomposes the effect of college’s quality signalling on former students’ early labor market outcomes. We propose a new measure of the signal for college quality: the performance of the previous cohort that has graduated three years before the individual in the same institution and major. Using a unique administrative educational data set matched with the employer-employee data for Brazilian formal firms we are able to identify that an increase of 1 percentage point in the signal variable is related to up to 0.42% larger probability of being employed in the formal sector and an increase of up to 0.4% in the early career wage. We also investigate heterogeneity returns by gender, individual’s prior working experience and field of education. We control for both individual and institutional performance levels.
{"title":"College quality, students performance and labor market outcomes","authors":"Enlinson Mattos, Priscilla Bacalhau, V. Ponczek","doi":"10.12660/bre.v41n22021.85461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/bre.v41n22021.85461","url":null,"abstract":"This paper decomposes the effect of college’s quality signalling on former students’ early labor market outcomes. We propose a new measure of the signal for college quality: the performance of the previous cohort that has graduated three years before the individual in the same institution and major. Using a unique administrative educational data set matched with the employer-employee data for Brazilian formal firms we are able to identify that an increase of 1 percentage point in the signal variable is related to up to 0.42% larger probability of being employed in the formal sector and an increase of up to 0.4% in the early career wage. We also investigate heterogeneity returns by gender, individual’s prior working experience and field of education. We control for both individual and institutional performance levels.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133525071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-17DOI: 10.12660/bre.v41n22021.84934
Edi Flores Reyna, Maria Micheliana da Costa Silva
This paper aims to identify the indirect effects of preschool on intra-household variables related to maternal labor supply, the older sibling’s domestic, productive work, and the demand for education for older siblings. We used the Constitutional Amendment that makesmandatory preschool attendance from 4 years old onwards as the identification strategy, and we used this discontinuity to perform an RDD fuzzy estimation. Results show that the child’s attendance at preschool increases the mother’s average weekly working hours by 26 hours but does not affect the hours offered by older siblings in the labor market. In addition, the intervention increases the older siblings’ household chores in low-income families. Concerning older siblings’ education attendance, the younger child’s preschool attendance showed adverse effects; the preschool reduces the school attendance of the older sibling. This effectis heterogeneous when considering the older siblings’ sex: girls are more affected than boys. Finally, the results identify the substitution effect of time allocation between the mother and the older sibling.
{"title":"Preschool Attendance and Intra-Household Time Allocation: Evidence from Brazil","authors":"Edi Flores Reyna, Maria Micheliana da Costa Silva","doi":"10.12660/bre.v41n22021.84934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/bre.v41n22021.84934","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to identify the indirect effects of preschool on intra-household variables related to maternal labor supply, the older sibling’s domestic, productive work, and the demand for education for older siblings. We used the Constitutional Amendment that makesmandatory preschool attendance from 4 years old onwards as the identification strategy, and we used this discontinuity to perform an RDD fuzzy estimation. Results show that the child’s attendance at preschool increases the mother’s average weekly working hours by 26 hours but does not affect the hours offered by older siblings in the labor market. In addition, the intervention increases the older siblings’ household chores in low-income families. Concerning older siblings’ education attendance, the younger child’s preschool attendance showed adverse effects; the preschool reduces the school attendance of the older sibling. This effectis heterogeneous when considering the older siblings’ sex: girls are more affected than boys. Finally, the results identify the substitution effect of time allocation between the mother and the older sibling.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132349330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-17DOI: 10.12660/bre.v42n12022.84956
Ana Cecília Almeida, Lorena Vieira Costa, Liana Bohn
Choques de renda, tais como originados no mercado internacional, fornecem uma oportunidade de se avaliar os efeitos de variações exógenas na renda sobre importantes indicadores microeconômicos das famílias. Nesse contexto, a entrada da China na Organização Mundial do Comércio em 2001 provocou o chamado Choque Chinês. Choques desse tipo podem ter efeitos diferenciais sobre homens e mulheres, visto que podem impactar de maneira adversa os diferentes setores intensivos em mão de obra feminina e masculina. Diante do exposto, neste trabalho buscou-se investigar se esse choque, tanto geral quanto ocorrido em setores especializados em mãos de obra feminina e masculina, impactaria também de maneira adversa a educação dos adolescentes de diferentes sexos. Em todos os resultados, as mulheres ficam numa situação melhor ou igual a dos homens. Ademais, considerando o choque geral, elas passam a ter mais participação em cursos em que eram a minoria, como “Agricultura e Veterinária”.
{"title":"CHOQUES DE RENDA E DESIGUALDADE DE GÊNERO: O CHOQUE CHINÊS E SEUS EFEITOS SOBRE INDICADORES ESCOLARES DOS ADOLESCENTES BRASILEIROS","authors":"Ana Cecília Almeida, Lorena Vieira Costa, Liana Bohn","doi":"10.12660/bre.v42n12022.84956","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/bre.v42n12022.84956","url":null,"abstract":"Choques de renda, tais como originados no mercado internacional, fornecem uma oportunidade de se avaliar os efeitos de variações exógenas na renda sobre importantes indicadores microeconômicos das famílias. Nesse contexto, a entrada da China na Organização Mundial do Comércio em 2001 provocou o chamado Choque Chinês. Choques desse tipo podem ter efeitos diferenciais sobre homens e mulheres, visto que podem impactar de maneira adversa os diferentes setores intensivos em mão de obra feminina e masculina. Diante do exposto, neste trabalho buscou-se investigar se esse choque, tanto geral quanto ocorrido em setores especializados em mãos de obra feminina e masculina, impactaria também de maneira adversa a educação dos adolescentes de diferentes sexos. Em todos os resultados, as mulheres ficam numa situação melhor ou igual a dos homens. Ademais, considerando o choque geral, elas passam a ter mais participação em cursos em que eram a minoria, como “Agricultura e Veterinária”.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"194 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124317603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.80292
T. C. Fonseca, V. S. Cerqueira, H. Migon, Christian A C Torres
This work investigates the effects of using the independent Jeffreys prior for the degrees of freedom parameter of a t-student model in the asymmetric generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. To capture asymmetry in the reaction to past shocks, smooth transition models are assumed for the variance. We adopt the fully Bayesian approach for inference, prediction and model selection We discuss problems related to the estimation of degrees of freedom in the Student-t model and propose a solution based on independent Jeffreys priors which correct problems in the likelihood function. A simulated study is presented to investigate how the estimation of model parameters in the t-student GARCH model are affected by small sample sizes, prior distributions and misspecification regarding the sampling distribution. An application to the Dow Jones stock market data illustrates the usefulness of the asymmetric GARCH model with t-student errors.
{"title":"Evaluating the performance of degrees of freedom estimation in asymmetric GARCH models with t-student innovations","authors":"T. C. Fonseca, V. S. Cerqueira, H. Migon, Christian A C Torres","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.80292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.80292","url":null,"abstract":"This work investigates the effects of using the independent Jeffreys prior for the degrees of freedom parameter of a t-student model in the asymmetric generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. To capture asymmetry in the reaction to past shocks, smooth transition models are assumed for the variance. We adopt the fully Bayesian approach for inference, prediction and model selection We discuss problems related to the estimation of degrees of freedom in the Student-t model and propose a solution based on independent Jeffreys priors which correct problems in the likelihood function. A simulated study is presented to investigate how the estimation of model parameters in the t-student GARCH model are affected by small sample sizes, prior distributions and misspecification regarding the sampling distribution. An application to the Dow Jones stock market data illustrates the usefulness of the asymmetric GARCH model with t-student errors.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"91 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123516059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81059
Thais Barcellos, G. Hirata
A two-stage wage gap decomposition permits measuring the contribution of observableand unobservable characteristics of the wage gap formation and evolution comparingteachers’ earnings in the public and private sectors from 2006 to 2017. Teachers fromthe public sector earn more than the ones from the private sector at mean, median, andquantile 10 due to the composition effect. The analysis across levels of education showsthat the composition effect is important in explaining the wage gap in early childhoodeducation while the structure effect is more relevant to the wage gap decomposition inprimary and high school education.
{"title":"Decomposing public-private teachers’ wage gap: evidence from Brazil","authors":"Thais Barcellos, G. Hirata","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81059","url":null,"abstract":"A two-stage wage gap decomposition permits measuring the contribution of observableand unobservable characteristics of the wage gap formation and evolution comparingteachers’ earnings in the public and private sectors from 2006 to 2017. Teachers fromthe public sector earn more than the ones from the private sector at mean, median, andquantile 10 due to the composition effect. The analysis across levels of education showsthat the composition effect is important in explaining the wage gap in early childhoodeducation while the structure effect is more relevant to the wage gap decomposition inprimary and high school education.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122666719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.80944
E. Mordecki, A. Rodríguez
We introduce a dynamical country risk index for emerging economies. The proposal is based on the intensity approach of credit risk, i.e. the default is the first jump of a point process with stochastic intensity. Two different models are used to estimate the yield spread. They differ in the relationship between the default-free instantaneous interest rate process and the intensity process. The dynamics of the interest rates is modeled through a multidimensional affine model, and the Kalman filter with an Expectation-Maximization algorithm is used to calibrate it. The USD interest rates constitute part of the input of the model, while prices of relevant domestic bonds in the emerging market complete the input. For an application, we select the Uruguayan bond market as the emerging economy.
{"title":"Country risk for emerging economies: a dynamical index proposal with a case study.","authors":"E. Mordecki, A. Rodríguez","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.80944","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.80944","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a dynamical country risk index for emerging economies. The proposal is based on the intensity approach of credit risk, i.e. the default is the first jump of a point process with stochastic intensity. Two different models are used to estimate the yield spread. They differ in the relationship between the default-free instantaneous interest rate process and the intensity process. The dynamics of the interest rates is modeled through a multidimensional affine model, and the Kalman filter with an Expectation-Maximization algorithm is used to calibrate it. The USD interest rates constitute part of the input of the model, while prices of relevant domestic bonds in the emerging market complete the input. For an application, we select the Uruguayan bond market as the emerging economy.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115768262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81749
D. G. D. Araújo, Guilherme Bayma, Carolina Melo, Milena Mendonça, L. Sampaio
We assess the effects of a Brazilian extended high school day program on college admission test scores. The program entails an increase in Math/Science and Language class time, and the introduction of extra-class activity time. We exploit variation in program implementation timing to apply a difference-in-differences strategy and an event-study approach. Results show positive large effects on test scores and suggest that these effects are likely driven by increased class and extra-class activity hours. Moreover, the program affects not only scores in subjects for which it contemplates increased class time, but also in Humanities. Finally, we are able to show that increased time dedicated to academic-related extra-class activities works as a multiplier of program effects. In fact, these additional hours spent in complementary activities make the magnitude of program effects double from 0.092-0.150 to 0.180-0.317 standard deviation.
{"title":"Do extended school day programs affect performance in college admission tests?","authors":"D. G. D. Araújo, Guilherme Bayma, Carolina Melo, Milena Mendonça, L. Sampaio","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81749","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the effects of a Brazilian extended high school day program on college admission test scores. The program entails an increase in Math/Science and Language class time, and the introduction of extra-class activity time. We exploit variation in program implementation timing to apply a difference-in-differences strategy and an event-study approach. Results show positive large effects on test scores and suggest that these effects are likely driven by increased class and extra-class activity hours. Moreover, the program affects not only scores in subjects for which it contemplates increased class time, but also in Humanities. Finally, we are able to show that increased time dedicated to academic-related extra-class activities works as a multiplier of program effects. In fact, these additional hours spent in complementary activities make the magnitude of program effects double from 0.092-0.150 to 0.180-0.317 standard deviation.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122228555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.79438
Marcelo Fernandes, Clemens Nunes, Y. Reis
This paper describes the dynamics of the level, slope and curvature of the Brazilian nominal yield curve using only observable macroeconomic indicators. The model is able to explain 94.5% of the variation in the yield curve. We find that the main drivers of the level factor is the Brazil risk premium (5-year CDS spread) and the unemployment rate. In turn, the slope steepens with increases either in the SELIC rate or in the spot exchange rate, and flattens with increases in unemployment rate and commodity returns. Lastly, the curvature increases with the unemployment, inflation and SELIC rates, but decreases with changes in the exchange rate.
{"title":"What Drives the Nominal Yield Curve in Brazil?","authors":"Marcelo Fernandes, Clemens Nunes, Y. Reis","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.79438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.79438","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the dynamics of the level, slope and curvature of the Brazilian nominal yield curve using only observable macroeconomic indicators. The model is able to explain 94.5% of the variation in the yield curve. We find that the main drivers of the level factor is the Brazil risk premium (5-year CDS spread) and the unemployment rate. In turn, the slope steepens with increases either in the SELIC rate or in the spot exchange rate, and flattens with increases in unemployment rate and commodity returns. Lastly, the curvature increases with the unemployment, inflation and SELIC rates, but decreases with changes in the exchange rate.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131294592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81082
I. Silva, Dulcidia Ernesto, F. L. Oliveira, R. Marques, A. Oliveira
In space state models for time series, a key point is the decision between modeling the trend of non-stationary processes through a deterministic or a stochastic term. The present paper introduces a Monte Carlo hypothesis test procedure to guide in such a decision. The method works for any time series distribution belonging to the location-scale family. The proposed method provides an alpha-level test for any time series of length greater than 3 and it does not demand assumptions on the distribution of the trend term when it is actually stochastic.
{"title":"Monte Carlo Test for Stochastic Trend in Space State Models for the Location-Scale Family","authors":"I. Silva, Dulcidia Ernesto, F. L. Oliveira, R. Marques, A. Oliveira","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V40N22020.81082","url":null,"abstract":"In space state models for time series, a key point is the decision between modeling the trend of non-stationary processes through a deterministic or a stochastic term. The present paper introduces a Monte Carlo hypothesis test procedure to guide in such a decision. The method works for any time series distribution belonging to the location-scale family. The proposed method provides an alpha-level test for any time series of length greater than 3 and it does not demand assumptions on the distribution of the trend term when it is actually stochastic.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126825991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-17DOI: 10.12660/bre.v40n12020.80462
Flávia Chein, Cristine Pinto
We explore the effect of wealth on occupational choice to find out whether small firms in Brazil face credit constraint and how occupational choice relates to investments. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find evidence that occupational choice is, in fact, constrained by wealth and this constraint is related to investment decisions. Our main results show that the probability of investment increases by 0.45 when the individual is an employer, controlling by entrepreneurs characteristics and sector, suggesting that the constraints at the credit market may affect investment decisions of small firms in Brazil. The effect of being an employer on credit access is about 0.320, which supports the idea that employers have more access to credit than the self-employed.
{"title":"Wealth, Credit Constraints and Small Firms’ Investment: Evidence from Brazil","authors":"Flávia Chein, Cristine Pinto","doi":"10.12660/bre.v40n12020.80462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/bre.v40n12020.80462","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the effect of wealth on occupational choice to find out whether small firms in Brazil face credit constraint and how occupational choice relates to investments. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find evidence that occupational choice is, in fact, constrained by wealth and this constraint is related to investment decisions. Our main results show that the probability of investment increases by 0.45 when the individual is an employer, controlling by entrepreneurs characteristics and sector, suggesting that the constraints at the credit market may affect investment decisions of small firms in Brazil. The effect of being an employer on credit access is about 0.320, which supports the idea that employers have more access to credit than the self-employed.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127972308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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