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The Effect of Parental Occupation and Family Arragements on Occupational Choices among Brazilian Youth 父母职业与家庭安排对巴西青年职业选择的影响
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v41n22021.85014
Danyella Juliana Martins de Brito, A. M. Hermeto Camilo de Oliveira, Stélio Coêlho Lombardi Filho
This paper estimates the added worker effect and discouraged worker effect for young people in metropolitan Brazil. Its main contribution is to reveal how the transition to unemployment by the household head impacts labor supply among youth, considering the demographic changes – especially the size and composition of family arrangements – that Brazil has undergone in recent decades. We designed multinomial probit models (with and without correction of sample selection bias) covering the main metropolitan regions of the country using data from Brazil’s Monthly Employment Survey (PME) for the years 2002 to 2015, which compiles information on monthly transitions in the Brazilian labor market. Our findings point to evidence of a greater transition of young men and women to activation in the labor market, specifically from inactivity to unemployment, in periods when the household head became unemployed. On the other hand, there is no evidence of a statistically significant discouraged worker effect impacting these individuals. Furthermore, the parents’ occupational situation seems to have little effect on the transition to activation of young males in low-income families, unlike those belonging to wealthier families.
本文估计了巴西大城市年轻人的额外工人效应和气馁工人效应。它的主要贡献是揭示了考虑到巴西近几十年来所经历的人口变化,特别是家庭安排的规模和组成,户主向失业的过渡如何影响年轻人的劳动力供应。我们使用巴西2002年至2015年月度就业调查(PME)的数据设计了覆盖该国主要大都市地区的多项probit模型(有或没有样本选择偏差的修正),该数据汇编了巴西劳动力市场月度转变的信息。我们的研究结果表明,有证据表明,在户主失业的时期,年轻男性和女性在劳动力市场上的活跃程度更高,特别是从不活跃到失业。另一方面,没有证据表明统计上有显著的沮丧工人效应影响这些人。此外,与富裕家庭不同,父母的职业状况似乎对低收入家庭年轻男性向激活的转变影响不大。
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引用次数: 0
DOES THE FAMILY STRUCTURE AFFECT THE HEALTH RISK BEHAVIOR OF ADOLESCENTS IN BRAZIL? 家庭结构是否影响巴西青少年的健康风险行为?
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v42n12022.84954
Rayen Heredia Peñaloza, Vitor Miro Couto Silva, Edward Martins Costa, Guilherme Dniz Irffi, Ahmad Saeed Khan
The purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of family structure on the risky behavior of Brazilian adolescents and to analyze the effect according to the levels of education (elementary school and high school). This analysis uses data from the PeNSE (National Student’s Health Survey) of 2015 which provides information about health behaviors among 13 to 17 years old Brazilian students. The sample is subdivided in Elementary School and High School. Estimations were made using the propensity score matching method (PSM) and the risky behaviors considered for the estimation were: consumption of alcohol, cigarettes, and illicit drugs. Thus, the results suggest that being raised in a disruptive family has negatively affects the health risk behavior of adolescents when analyzed by the issue of substance use, mainly when it comes to the consumption of alcohol and cigarettes.
本研究的目的是估计家庭结构对巴西青少年危险行为的影响,并根据教育水平(小学和高中)分析这种影响。该分析使用了2015年全国学生健康调查(PeNSE)的数据,该调查提供了13至17岁巴西学生的健康行为信息。样本被细分为小学和高中。使用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)进行估计,用于估计的危险行为包括:饮酒、吸烟和非法药物。因此,结果表明,在一个破坏性的家庭中长大对青少年的健康风险行为有负面影响,当分析物质使用问题时,主要是当涉及到饮酒和吸烟时。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying and Explaining Gender Peer Effects in Elementary Schools 小学性别同伴效应之辨识与解释
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v42n12022.84765
Eduardo A. Tillmann, F. Comim
The aim of this paper is to investigate the casual relationship and the mechanisms behind school gender composition and scholastic achievement. We use four cohorts of 5th grade student’s assessment of Math and Portuguese in Brazilian elementary public schools and apply an identification strategy relying on school level gender peer effects and school fixed effects to control for self-selection of students across schools. We identify a positive relationship between scholastic achievement and the proportion of female students. This effect is underlined by improvements in student behavior, as indicated by teachers’ assessment of student’s academic potential, self-esteem, interest, discipline, absenteeism, and perception about syllabus coverage and school violence. Hence, this research draws attention to gender as an important factor in the allocation of students and teachers within schools. The consideration of our findings in the formulation and execution of policies can result in effective low-cost measures aimed at increasing achievement.
本文旨在探讨学校性别构成与学业成绩的因果关系及其机制。我们使用四组巴西公立小学五年级学生对数学和葡萄牙语的评估,并应用基于学校层面性别同伴效应和学校固定效应的识别策略来控制各学校学生的自我选择。我们发现学业成绩与女学生比例之间存在正相关关系。教师对学生的学术潜力、自尊、兴趣、纪律、缺勤以及对教学大纲覆盖范围和学校暴力的看法的评估表明,学生行为的改善强调了这种影响。因此,本研究提请注意性别是学校内学生和教师分配的一个重要因素。在制定和执行政策时考虑我们的研究结果,可以产生旨在提高成就的有效的低成本措施。
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引用次数: 0
China Shock and Female Labor Market Participation in Brazil 中国冲击与巴西女性劳动力市场参与
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v42n12022.85013
Juliana Cristofani, Ana Polato e Fava, Mônica Yukie Kuwahara
Brazil was a successful case of economic growth based on import substitution. Recently, with the China shock, the country’s economy has been exposed to greater competition. In a similar period, an increase of 12 percent in the proportion of formalized female workerstook place in the Brazilian labor market. This paper explores the variation of China Shock between Brazilian local labor markets (or microregions) to identify whether the expansion of Chinese participation in international trade was able to improve the women’s conditions in the Brazilian labor market between 2000 and 2013 measured by the proportion of women formalized, and the wage ratio of female to male workers. It is the first study to assess how the two channels of China shock, the influx of Chinese imports in Brazil, and the increase in Chinese demand for Brazilian exports, affected the outcomes of formal Brazilian women, with data from the Brazilian labor market (RAIS and Census) and information on trade flows between Brazil and China (BACI database).
巴西是建立在进口替代基础上的经济增长的成功案例。最近,随着中国经济的冲击,该国经济面临着更激烈的竞争。在同一时期,巴西劳动力市场中正式女性工人的比例增加了12%。本文探讨了中国冲击在巴西当地劳动力市场(或微区域)之间的变化,以确定中国参与国际贸易的扩大是否能够改善2000年至2013年间巴西劳动力市场中女性的状况(以女性正规化比例和女性与男性工人的工资比例衡量)。这是第一个评估中国冲击的两个渠道,即中国进口产品涌入巴西和中国对巴西出口产品需求增加,如何影响巴西正式妇女的结果的研究,数据来自巴西劳动力市场(RAIS和人口普查)和巴西与中国之间的贸易流动信息(BACI数据库)。
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引用次数: 0
Occupational Feminization and Pay: The Case of Brazil 职业女性化与薪酬:巴西的案例
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v42n12022.85018
Diego Camargo Botassio, Daniela Verzola Vaz
The sex wage gap is widely documented in the literature. Although several theories emerged to explain it, the devaluation and queuing views have been dominant due to women’s concentration in lower-paying occupations. They differ in the direction of thecausal effect: while the devaluation theory predicts lower wages for higher occupation’s female share, the queuing theory predicts causal effect in the opposite direction. No studies to support these theories have been found for developing countries and this paper aims to test them for Brazil. Using Censuses data, three results emerge: 1) negative correlation between sex composition and wages; 2) no evidence to support neither theory; 3) some evidence to support another view: the theory of equalizing differences. This last theory predicts no causal relationship between the occupational share of females and wages because wage differentials would emerge from human capital differences and the value attributed to jobs’ non-monetary advantages.
性别工资差距在文献中被广泛记录。尽管出现了几种理论来解释这一现象,但由于女性集中在低薪职业,贬值和排队观一直占据主导地位。它们在因果效应的方向上有所不同:贬值理论预测职业中女性所占比例越高,工资越低,而排队理论预测的因果效应则相反。在发展中国家没有发现支持这些理论的研究,本文的目的是在巴西对它们进行检验。利用人口普查数据,得出三个结果:1)性别构成与工资呈负相关;2)没有证据支持这两种理论;3)一些证据支持另一种观点:平等差异理论。最后一种理论预测女性职业份额与工资之间没有因果关系,因为工资差异将从人力资本差异和归因于工作的非货币优势的价值中产生。
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引用次数: 0
Are Social Skills Helping Women in the Brazilian Labor Market? 社交技能对巴西劳动力市场的女性有帮助吗?
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v42n12022.84996
Vanessa Neumann Sulzbach, G. Stein, Marcelo De Carvalho Griebeler
We document an increase in the likelihood of women working in a good job (those with higher wages) in the Brazilian high-skilled labor market in the period of 1994-2017. We highlight the importance of social skills in explaining why the growing demand for high-skilled workers has not been equal across gender. To do so, we built a novel Brazilian Classification of Occupations (CBO) rating based on skill content compatible with the O*NET task index. Our results show a positive relationship between social skills and the female share of occupations, which suggests that women have been choosing professions intensive in this skill. We also provide results consistent with neuroscience literature, which has reported that women have a comparative advantage in performing tasks that require social skills. Finally, we find that the relevance of such skills in determining wages is higher for women than men in recent years.
我们记录了1994-2017年期间,巴西高技能劳动力市场中女性从事好工作(工资较高的工作)的可能性有所增加。我们强调了社交技能的重要性,以解释为什么对高技能工人日益增长的需求在性别上并不平等。为此,我们基于与O*NET任务指数兼容的技能内容建立了一个新颖的巴西职业分类(CBO)评级。我们的研究结果显示,社交技能与女性所占职业比例之间存在正相关关系,这表明女性一直在选择社交技能密集的职业。我们还提供了与神经科学文献一致的结果,这些文献报道了女性在执行需要社交技能的任务方面具有相对优势。最后,我们发现,近年来,这些技能在决定女性工资方面的相关性高于男性。
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引用次数: 0
Financial cycles: how long and how certain? 金融周期:有多长,有多确定?
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v41n22021.84941
R. González, L. Marinho, Joaquim Lima
Understanding and measuring financial cycles is important to academics and policy-makers, particularly those in charge of macroprudential policy. While business cycle periodic components have been largely estimated with different methods, empirical evidence related to financial cycles’ periodicities is scarce. Worse, ad hoc filters, are commonly used by policy-makers to calculate the credit gap and make important policy decisions based on the amplitude of this gap. To address the issue of depicting financial cycles, we estimate the credit gap and credit periodic components in 28 countries using Bayesian Structural Time Series Methods (STM) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). We find financial cycles of 13 to 20 years in most countries, but some present periodicities close to those of the business cycle. We also find discrepancies between our estimated cycles and the ad hoc filter calibration usually adopted by policy-makers to measure the credit gap, which conceal uncertainty and can be misleading.
理解和衡量金融周期对学者和政策制定者,特别是那些负责宏观审慎政策的人来说非常重要。虽然商业周期周期成分已经在很大程度上用不同的方法估计,但与金融周期周期相关的经验证据很少。更糟糕的是,政策制定者通常使用特设过滤器来计算信贷缺口,并根据这一缺口的幅度做出重要的政策决策。为了解决描述金融周期的问题,我们使用贝叶斯结构时间序列方法(STM)和奇异谱分析(SSA)估计了28个国家的信贷缺口和信贷周期成分。我们发现,大多数国家的金融周期为13至20年,但有些国家目前的周期与商业周期接近。我们还发现,我们估计的周期与政策制定者通常用来衡量信贷缺口的临时过滤器校准之间存在差异,这掩盖了不确定性,可能会产生误导。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of income shocks on female headship and poverty in Brazil 收入冲击对巴西女性领导地位和贫困的影响
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v42n12022.84958
A. Batista, L. Costa
This paper analyzes the effects of income shocks on the households’ chances of becoming headed by women and its effects on the female-headed households’ poverty vulnerability in the Brazilian metropolitan regions. For that, the unemployment rate was used as an income shock, considering both positive and negative variations in the general economy and the sectors that mostly employ men and women. The results suggest that negative income shocks decrease female household headship, while positive ones cannot always increase them in the Brazilian metropolitan regions. Also, negative and positive income shocks make households headed by women more likely to be poor.
本文分析了收入冲击对巴西大都市地区家庭由女性担任户主机会的影响及其对女性户主家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。为此,考虑到总体经济和主要雇用男性和女性的部门的积极和消极变化,失业率被用作收入冲击。结果表明,在巴西大都市地区,负收入冲击会减少女性户主,而正收入冲击并不总是会增加女性户主。此外,消极和积极的收入冲击使以妇女为户主的家庭更有可能陷入贫困。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of the “Apprenticeship Law” on the Employment of Young Apprentices in Brazil 《学徒法》对巴西年轻学徒就业的影响
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v41n22021.84906
E. Nunes, A. Khan, Cícero Francisco de Lima, Edward Martins Costa, Guilherme Irffi, Rayssa Alexandre Costa
This study analyze the effect and effectiveness of the apprenticeship quota rule in hiring young apprentices in Brazil. To this end, we used longitudinal data from the Annual Social Information List (RAIS), considering the period from 2006 to 2019, and estimated the causal effects of the Learning Law using fuzzy and sharp Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). It was found that the percentage of employers that comply with the Apprenticeship Law ranged from 2.42% in 2006 to 26.61% in 2019. As for the causal effects of the Law in Brazil, despite the improvement observed in this period, the rate of apprentices hired by companies in the Retail and Services, and Industry and Construction sectors is still below the established quota. This result suggests the need to improve control and inspection mechanisms to increase the effectiveness of the Law in Brazil.
本研究分析了巴西学徒配额制度在雇佣年轻学徒方面的效果和有效性。为此,我们使用了来自年度社会信息列表(RAIS)的纵向数据,考虑了2006年至2019年的时期,并使用模糊和尖锐回归不连续设计(RDD)估计了学习规律的因果效应。调查发现,遵守《学徒法》的雇主比例从2006年的2.42%到2019年的26.61%不等。至于该法在巴西的因果影响,尽管在这一时期有所改善,但零售和服务、工业和建筑部门的公司雇用学徒的比率仍然低于规定的配额。这一结果表明,需要改进控制和检查机制,以提高该法律在巴西的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Duração da liberdade pós-prisão por gênero, e endogeneidade dos antecedentes criminais: um caso brasileiro 按性别划分的监狱后自由时间和犯罪记录的内生性:一个巴西案例
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.12660/bre.v41n22021.84667
F. Petterini, Jeniffer Gonçalves, S. Sallum
A população carcerária feminina cresce mais que a masculina em vários países. Para subsidiar a formulação de políticas de redução de reincidência considerando diferenças de gênero, a literatura internacional estuda a duração da liberdade pós-prisão e covariadas, mas pesquisas semelhantes para o Brasil são raras ou inexistentes. O artigo ajuda a preencher essa lacuna ao analisar de forma inédita os prontuários de milhares de ex-detentas(os) das prisões de Santa Catarina, montando-se um rico banco de microdados. O principal controle é o indicador de antecedentes criminais, que é endógeno e demanda uma modelagem peculiar. Conclui-se que características individuais e intervenções do Estado afetam marginalmente a duração da liberdade pós-prisão quando comparadas ao efeito dos antecedentes (e pertencer a uma facção criminosa), independentemente do gênero; e, a efetividade de uma política de redução da reincidência demanda uma estratégia de retenção da incidência, considerando diferenças de gênero.
在一些国家,女性监狱人口的增长超过了男性。为了支持考虑性别差异的减少再犯政策的制定,国际文献研究了监狱后的自由时间和共变量,但在巴西类似的研究很少或不存在。本文以一种前所未有的方式分析了圣卡塔琳娜监狱数千名前囚犯的医疗记录,建立了一个丰富的微数据库,帮助填补了这一空白。主要的控制是犯罪记录指标,这是内生的,需要一个特殊的建模。结论是,与背景(和犯罪派别)的影响相比,无论性别,个人特征和国家干预对监狱后自由的持续时间影响不大;减少再犯罪政策的有效性需要考虑到性别差异的发病率保留策略。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Brazilian Review of Econometrics
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