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An efficient load forecasting technique by using Holt‐Winters and Prophet algorithms to mitigate the impact on power consumption in COVID‐19 使用 Holt-Winters 和 Prophet 算法的高效负荷预测技术,可减轻 COVID-19 中耗电量的影响
IF 2.4 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12132
W. Waheed, Qingshan Xu
It is strongly recommended to implement effective long‐term load forecasting for future power generation in the new architecture of the smart grid and buildings. This method is essential for the smart grid's stability, power demand estimation, and an improved energy management system, which will enhance integration between efficient demand response and distributed renewable energy sources. However, due to influencing elements including climatic, societal, and seasonal aspects, it is quite challenging to perform energy prediction with high accuracy. To estimate the load demand before and during the time period of the COVID‐19 paradigm with its diversity and complexity, the authors present and integrate time series forecasting techniques such as Holt‐Winters and Prophet algorithms. In comparison to the Holt‐Winters model, the Prophet model has shown to be more noise‐resistant. Additionally, the Prophet model surpasses the Holt‐Winters model according to the generalisability test of the two models by using the hourly driven power consumption data from Houston, Texas, USA. The resultant constraints and influential factors are discussed, and experimental results can be validated from the pivotal outcome.
强烈建议在智能电网和建筑的新架构中对未来发电实施有效的长期负荷预测。这种方法对于智能电网的稳定性、电力需求估算和改进能源管理系统至关重要,将加强高效需求响应与分布式可再生能源之间的整合。然而,由于受到气候、社会和季节等因素的影响,要进行高精度的能源预测具有相当大的挑战性。COVID-19 范例具有多样性和复杂性,为了估算 COVID-19 范例之前和期间的负荷需求,作者提出并整合了 Holt-Winters 和 Prophet 算法等时间序列预测技术。与 Holt-Winters 模型相比,先知模型的抗噪能力更强。此外,通过使用美国德克萨斯州休斯顿市每小时驱动的电力消耗数据,对这两种模型进行了通用性测试,结果表明先知模型优于霍尔特-温特斯模型。讨论了由此产生的制约因素和影响因素,并从关键结果中验证了实验结果。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring power system flexibility regulation potential based on multi‐base‐station cooperation self‐optimising sleep strategy for 5G base stations 基于多基站合作自优化睡眠策略的 5G 基站电力系统灵活性调节潜力探索
IF 2.4 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12130
Xiaoyan Ma, Yunfei Mu, Hongjie Jia, Ming Li, Yu Long, Qifeng Huang, Xinyang Jiang
5G base stations (BSs) are potential flexible resources for power systems due to their dynamic adjustable power consumption. However, the ever‐increasing energy consumption of 5G BSs places great pressure on electricity costs, and existing energy‐saving measures do not fully utilise BS wireless resources in accordance with dynamic changes in communication load, resulting in flexible resource waste and seriously limiting electricity cost savings for 5G BSs. A multi‐BS cooperation self‐optimising sleep strategy for 5G BSs that consists of an initial user association stage based on multi‐BS cooperation (MBSC) and a self‐optimising variable‐threshold sleep stage (SVTS). First, a heterogeneous cellular network (HCN) model is established. Then, a 5G BS economic optimisation model is constructed, which aims at minimising the electricity cost of the BSs and takes the BS and user equipment (UEs) states in the HCN model as constraints to clarify the optimisation objective and constraints for the proposed strategy. Furthermore, BSs are initially associated with UEs through MBSC, and idle and lightly loaded BSs are then maximally put to sleep through SVTS to reduce power and energy consumption and thereby realise economic optimisation of the BSs. Finally, simulations are conducted to validate the proposed strategy and illustrate the ability of 5G BSs to provide flexible resource regulation for power systems.
5G 基站(BS)的功耗可动态调整,是电力系统潜在的灵活资源。然而,5G BS 不断增加的能耗给电力成本带来了巨大压力,现有的节能措施不能根据通信负载的动态变化充分利用 BS 无线资源,造成了灵活资源的浪费,严重制约了 5G BS 的电力成本节约。针对5G BS的多BS合作自优化睡眠策略,包括基于多BS合作的初始用户关联阶段(MBSC)和自优化可变阈值睡眠阶段(SVTS)。首先,建立异构蜂窝网络(HCN)模型。然后,构建了一个 5G BS 经济优化模型,该模型以 BS 的电力成本最小化为目标,并将 HCN 模型中的 BS 和用户设备(UE)状态作为约束条件,从而明确了建议策略的优化目标和约束条件。此外,最初通过 MBSC 将 BS 与 UE 关联,然后通过 SVTS 使空闲和轻载 BS 最大限度地进入休眠状态,以降低功耗和能耗,从而实现 BS 的经济优化。最后,通过仿真验证了所提出的策略,并说明了 5G BS 为电力系统提供灵活资源调节的能力。
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引用次数: 0
A parallel input parallel output current fed front end DC-DC converter-based solid state transformer utilised in grid connected mode PV applications 一种基于并网模式光伏应用中的并联输入并联输出电流馈电前端 DC-DC 转换器固态变压器
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12129
Nitesh Kumar, Pramod Agarwal

The presented work operated a PIPO Current fed front end converter-based solid-state transformer (SST) for maximum power point tracking (MPPT) and voltage boost operation in medium power range PV applications. The proposed system employed the perturb and observe (P&O)-based MPPT technique and upheld the ZVS and ZCS operations of all primary side switches and secondary side rectifier diodes, respectively. The proposed system introduced a new fundamental extractor titled ‘Pre-filter double fundamental signal extractor (DFSE) based multi-layered DFSE (p-DFSE-MDFSE)’ and utilised it in the grid controller for synchronisation and harmonics mitigation operation. The primary goal was to achieve a compact size, reduced weight and cheaper magnetic component-based front-end converter of SST on the PV array side and a fast, secure and trustworthy mitigation control of current harmonics on the utility grid side. The proposed system was inspected on the OPAL-RT (RT-LABv2021.3.2.307) platform for various grid anomalies, and its conduct was found to be well within the IEEE 519 norms.

本文介绍了一种基于 PIPO 电流馈电的前端转换器固态变压器(SST),用于中等功率范围光伏应用中的最大功率点跟踪(MPPT)和升压操作。所提出的系统采用了基于扰动和观测(P&O)的 MPPT 技术,并分别维持了所有一次侧开关和二次侧整流二极管的 ZVS 和 ZCS 操作。所提出的系统引入了一种名为 "基于预滤波双基波信号提取器(DFSE)的多层 DFSE(p-DFSE-MDFSE)"的新基波提取器,并将其用于电网控制器的同步和谐波缓解操作。主要目标是在光伏阵列侧实现体积小、重量轻、成本低的基于磁性元件的 SST 前端转换器,并在公用电网侧实现快速、安全和可靠的电流谐波缓解控制。在 OPAL-RT (RT-LABv2021.3.2.307) 平台上对拟议系统进行了各种电网异常检查,发现其行为完全符合 IEEE 519 规范。
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引用次数: 0
Effective one-dimensional dynamic modelling of latent heat thermal energy storage units for heating applications 供热用潜热蓄热装置的有效一维动态建模
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12128
Hector Bastida, Ivan De la Cruz-Loredo, Carlos E. Ugalde-Loo

Effective use of the energy stored within thermal energy storage systems requires mathematical models that faithfully represent the dynamics of interest. Although three-dimensional or two-dimensional models may provide an accurate representation of the thermal store, these are computationally intensive and may not be suitable for control system design or to simulate complex networks. Following this line, a low-order one-dimensional model of a latent heat thermal store is presented. The model is based on energy balance, the specific heat–temperature curve of the storage medium, and the dynamic calculation of the heat transfer coefficient. The simplicity afforded by the model facilitates its implementation in any programming language, guaranteeing its compatibility with commercial software to simulate complex systems. The model was implemented in MATLAB/Simulink and verified against experimental data of the real unit and simulation results obtained with a two-dimensional model. Simulation results for charging and discharging operations obtained with the one-dimensional model exhibit a root mean square error of ≤0.53 °C and a mean square error of ≤0.32 °C when compared with experimental results of the output temperature of the heat transfer fluid. These outcomes are deemed acceptable considering the low order of the one-dimensional model.

要有效利用热能储存系统中储存的能量,需要建立能忠实反映相关动态的数学模型。虽然三维或二维模型可以准确地表示热存储,但这些模型的计算量很大,可能不适合控制系统设计或复杂网络的模拟。根据这一思路,本文提出了一种低阶一维潜热蓄热器模型。该模型基于能量平衡、存储介质的比热-温度曲线以及传热系数的动态计算。该模型简单易用,可以用任何编程语言实现,保证了与模拟复杂系统的商业软件的兼容性。该模型在 MATLAB/Simulink 中实现,并根据实际设备的实验数据和二维模型的模拟结果进行了验证。与导热液体输出温度的实验结果相比,一维模型获得的充放电操作模拟结果的均方根误差≤0.53 °C,均方误差≤0.32 °C。考虑到一维模型的阶数较低,这些结果是可以接受的。
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引用次数: 0
A matrix game-based coordinated optimisation method of distribution networks with multiple flexible resources 基于矩阵博弈的多灵活资源配电网络协调优化方法
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12127
Yingdong An, Yixin Liu, Li Guo, Xinchen Li, Xiangjun Li, Xuecui Jia, Tengxin Wang, Min Zhang

The ‘Electric energy substitution’ project in rural areas of northern China aims to replace coal-fired heating with electric heating. However, this could potentially lead to congestion problems on the local distribution networks (DNs) due to an increase in heating loads. Instead of expanding the lines, flexible resources such as microgrids (MGs) and heat pumps (HPs) could provide auxiliary services in a more cost-effective manner. A bi-level optimisation model that coordinates DNs, MGs, and HP clusters is proposed to address this issue. In the lower level, MGs and HP clusters provide auxiliary services through competitive bidding to maximise their own income over multiple periods, considering a series of technical operational constraints and comfort constraints. In the upper level, DNs clear the market based on the bidding information to minimise its operational costs while guaranteeing network constraints. The bi-level optimisation model is formulated as a multi-agent matrix game problem, and the Win or Learn Fast-Policy Hill-climbing algorithm is used to achieve fast market equilibrium in a decentralised manner. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can improve the revenue of MGs by up to 2.6 times compared to the single period matrix game method, and reduce the convergence time by up to 81.3% compared to the multi-agent Q-learning method.

中国北方农村地区的 "电能替代 "项目旨在用电取暖替代燃煤取暖。然而,由于供暖负荷的增加,这有可能导致当地配电网(DN)出现拥堵问题。微电网(MG)和热泵(HP)等灵活资源可以以更具成本效益的方式提供辅助服务,而不是扩大线路。为解决这一问题,我们提出了一个协调 DN、MG 和 HP 集群的双层优化模型。在下层,MG 和 HP 集群通过竞标提供辅助服务,以在多个时段内实现自身收入最大化,同时考虑一系列技术操作限制和舒适度限制。在上层,DN 根据竞标信息清算市场,在保证网络约束的前提下使其运营成本最小化。该双层优化模型被表述为一个多代理矩阵博弈问题,并采用 Win or Learn Fast-Policy Hill-climbing 算法以分散方式快速实现市场均衡。仿真结果表明,与单期矩阵博弈方法相比,所提出的方法可提高 MG 收入达 2.6 倍,与多代理 Q-learning 方法相比,收敛时间缩短达 81.3%。
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引用次数: 0
Honeycomb integrated energy distribution system: Networking structure and operation mode 蜂巢式综合能源分配系统:网络结构和运行模式
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12126
Guoqiang Zu, Chenhui Song, Xiaolong Jin

The distribution system is undergoing a transformation into a platform that integrates multiple energy sources, including electricity, gas, and heat, to facilitate point-to-point energy transmission. However, the existing tree radiation structure of the distribution system is inadequate to meet the demand. To address this, this paper proposes the networking structure and operation mode of the honeycomb integrated energy distribution system (HIEDS). Firstly, the paper outlines the network structure of HIEDS, which includes flexible interconnection modes between micro-networks and key equipment, such as the integrated energy stations. Secondly, two typical operation modes of HIEDS with the objectives of operation economy and load balancing are proposed, respectively. Finally, the operation characteristics of HIEDS in different scenarios are analysed through case studies, and HIEDS is compared with other typical interconnection structures of micro-energy networks further. The results demonstrate that HIEDS provides a more flexible energy supply mode, which can improve the operation economy and reliability of the distribution system. This study will provide a theoretical basis for optimising the structure and operation mode of future integrated energy distribution systems.

配电系统正在转型,成为一个整合电力、天然气和热能等多种能源的平台,以促进点对点的能源传输。然而,配电系统现有的树状辐射结构无法满足需求。针对这一问题,本文提出了蜂巢式综合能源分配系统(HIEDS)的组网结构和运行模式。首先,本文概述了 HIEDS 的网络结构,包括微网与综合能源站等关键设备之间的灵活互联模式。其次,分别以运行经济性和负载平衡为目标,提出了 HIEDS 的两种典型运行模式。最后,通过案例研究分析了 HIEDS 在不同场景下的运行特性,并进一步将 HIEDS 与其他典型的微能源网互联结构进行了比较。研究结果表明,HIEDS 提供了一种更加灵活的能源供应模式,可以提高配电系统的运行经济性和可靠性。这项研究将为优化未来综合能源分配系统的结构和运行模式提供理论依据。
{"title":"Honeycomb integrated energy distribution system: Networking structure and operation mode","authors":"Guoqiang Zu,&nbsp;Chenhui Song,&nbsp;Xiaolong Jin","doi":"10.1049/esi2.12126","DOIUrl":"10.1049/esi2.12126","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The distribution system is undergoing a transformation into a platform that integrates multiple energy sources, including electricity, gas, and heat, to facilitate point-to-point energy transmission. However, the existing tree radiation structure of the distribution system is inadequate to meet the demand. To address this, this paper proposes the networking structure and operation mode of the honeycomb integrated energy distribution system (HIEDS). Firstly, the paper outlines the network structure of HIEDS, which includes flexible interconnection modes between micro-networks and key equipment, such as the integrated energy stations. Secondly, two typical operation modes of HIEDS with the objectives of operation economy and load balancing are proposed, respectively. Finally, the operation characteristics of HIEDS in different scenarios are analysed through case studies, and HIEDS is compared with other typical interconnection structures of micro-energy networks further. The results demonstrate that HIEDS provides a more flexible energy supply mode, which can improve the operation economy and reliability of the distribution system. This study will provide a theoretical basis for optimising the structure and operation mode of future integrated energy distribution systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":33288,"journal":{"name":"IET Energy Systems Integration","volume":"6 3","pages":"268-282"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1049/esi2.12126","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139234754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Condition monitoring of permanent magnet AC machines for all-electric transportation systems: State of the art 用于全电动交通系统的永磁交流电机的状态监测:技术现状
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12125
Adil Usman, Bharat Singh Rajpurohit

The current state of the art on emerging and efficient techniques for condition monitoring of permanent magnet (PM) alternating-current (AC) machines deployed in electric vehicle (EV) applications is presented. The discussion includes the most common and specific types of faults in PM motors, such as rotor demagnetisation and stator inter-turn faults, respectively. Fault indicators, such as voltage (vs) and current (is) signals and machine signatures based on motor back electromotive force (EMF) (EB) and magnetic flux (ϕ), are taken into account as a measuring quantity in diagnosing motor faults. Other signatures, including thermal analysis, acoustic noise, and vibrations, are also illustrated as some of the emerging techniques in estimating the performance of EV motors while under operations. In addition, various fault modelling methods, condition monitoring techniques, and comprehensive approaches applied in diagnosing the effect of machine faults during its incipient stages are illustrated. Since most of the fault diagnostic techniques discussed here include only machine-based quantities as fault indices/indicators, the provided solutions are therefore found to be more reliable and accurate for diagnosing the motor faults. This comprehensive review study is inclusive of the existing fault diagnostic techniques, which are currently employed in industrial and commercial practices, in addition to the new methodologies proposed by the authors. All the given condition monitoring schemes therefore seem significantly vital in estimating the state of health of PM AC machines while under operation in all-electric transportation systems.

本文介绍了用于电动汽车(EV)应用中永磁交流(AC)电机状态监测的新兴高效技术的最新发展状况。讨论内容包括永磁电机最常见和最特殊的故障类型,如转子退磁和定子匝间故障。故障指标,如电压(vs)和电流(is)信号,以及基于电机反向电动势(EMF)(EB)和磁通量(j)的机器特征,都被视为诊断电机故障的测量量。其他特征,包括热分析、声学噪声和振动,也作为一些新兴技术在估算电动汽车电机运行时的性能时进行了说明。此外,还介绍了各种故障建模方法、状态监测技术以及在机器故障萌芽阶段诊断其影响的综合方法。由于本文讨论的大多数故障诊断技术都只将基于机器的量作为故障指数/指标,因此发现所提供的解决方案在诊断电机故障方面更加可靠和准确。除了作者提出的新方法外,本综合评论研究还包括目前在工业和商业实践中采用的现有故障诊断技术。因此,所有给定的状态监测方案对于估计全电动交通系统中运行中的永磁交流电机的健康状况似乎都非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Risk modelling of hydrogen-enriched natural gas on pipelines and gas-electric coupled systems 富氢天然气在管道和气电耦合系统中的风险建模
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12124
Kun Yang, Zhihui Zhao, Anan Zhang, Wei Yang, Qian Li, Shan Zeng, Gaoqiang Peng

The use of natural gas pipeline networks to transmit hydrogen energy is an important form of hydrogen energy utilisation. The coupling of hydrogen-enriched natural gas pipeline network and power grid involves the energy conversion of electricity-hydrogen-electricity, so the assessment is crucial because the system is complex, and the hazards to the system can be identified. This paper proposes a risk assessment method for gas-electric coupling of hydrogen-enriched natural gas pipeline networks and a three-stage risk assessment model to assess the life cycle risk of natural gas pipelines; a material energy-based risk transfer model considering gas-electric coupling is proposed to describe the risk transfer process of hydrogen-enriched natural gas between the gas network and the grid. By comparing and analysing the risk of natural gas blending ratio to the pipeline and the risk of pipeline pressure to the pipeline, the validity of the model is verified, which provides safety support for the connection of the natural gas pipeline system to the grid and ensures the efficient use of hydrogen energy.

利用天然气管网传输氢能是氢能利用的一种重要形式。富氢天然气管网与电网的耦合涉及 "电-氢-电 "的能量转换,系统复杂,对系统的危害可识别,因此评估至关重要。本文提出了富氢天然气管网气电耦合风险评估方法和三阶段风险评估模型,以评估天然气管道的生命周期风险;提出了考虑气电耦合的基于物质能量的风险转移模型,以描述富氢天然气在气网和电网之间的风险转移过程。通过对比分析天然气掺混率对管道的风险和管道压力对管道的风险,验证了模型的有效性,为天然气管道系统与电网的连接提供了安全支撑,确保了氢能的高效利用。
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引用次数: 0
Application of data-driven methods in power systems analysis and control 数据驱动方法在电力系统分析和控制中的应用
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12122
Otavio Bertozzi, Harold R. Chamorro, Edgar O. Gomez-Diaz, Michelle S. Chong, Shehab Ahmed

The increasing integration of variable renewable energy resources through power electronics has brought about substantial changes in the structure and dynamics of modern power systems. In response to these transformations, there has been a surge in the development of tools and algorithms leveraging real-time computational power to enhance system operation and stability. Data-driven methods have emerged as practical approaches for extracting reliable representations from non-linear system data, enabling the identification of dynamics and system parameters essential for analysing stability and ensuring reliable operation. This study provides a comprehensive review of recent contributions in the literature concerning the application of data-driven identification, analysis, and control methods in various aspects of power system operation. Specifically, the focus is on frequency support, power oscillation detection, and damping, which play crucial roles in maintaining grid stability. By discussing the challenges posed by parametric uncertainties, load and source variability, and reduced system inertia, this review sheds light on the opportunities for future research endeavours.

通过电力电子技术对可变可再生能源的日益整合,给现代电力系统的结构和动态带来了巨大变化。为了应对这些变化,利用实时计算能力来提高系统运行和稳定性的工具和算法的开发激增。数据驱动方法已成为从非线性系统数据中提取可靠表征的实用方法,可用于识别对分析稳定性和确保可靠运行至关重要的动态和系统参数。本研究全面综述了近期有关数据驱动识别、分析和控制方法在电力系统运行各方面应用的文献。具体而言,研究重点是频率支持、功率振荡检测和阻尼,它们在维持电网稳定方面发挥着至关重要的作用。通过讨论参数不确定性、负载和源变化以及系统惯性减小带来的挑战,本综述为未来的研究工作提供了机会。
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引用次数: 0
The computation of the air conditioning loads life loss and its application to demand response 空调负荷寿命损失的计算及其在需求响应中的应用
IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1049/esi2.12121
Zhiwei Li, Wenhao Hu, Zhihan Cong, Shuqiang Zhao

Air conditioning loads (ACLs) represent an increasing proportion of power system loads, offering significant potential for optimised scheduling and active participation in demand response (DR) programs. While many studies have focused on ON/OFF control schemes that satisfy system requirements, few have addressed quantifying the life loss of ACLs from the user perspective. To address this gap, a quantitative model of ACL life loss is established and an optimal scheduling model is developed for ACLs participating in DR that incorporates the cost of life loss. The relationship between life loss and refrigeration power is a complex non-linear high-order fractional function that cannot be solved by commercial solvers. Therefore, a bi-objective multi-weight optimisation algorithm is proposed with a complex non-linear fraction based on the Dinkelbach algorithm and its feasibility through mathematical examples is verified. Finally, a numerical example based on the IEEE 39-bus test system is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the model and the effectiveness of the proposed solution method.

空调负荷(ACL)在电力系统负荷中所占比例越来越大,为优化调度和积极参与需求响应(DR)计划提供了巨大潜力。虽然许多研究都侧重于满足系统要求的开/关控制方案,但很少有研究从用户角度量化空调负荷的寿命损失。为了弥补这一不足,我们建立了 ACL 生命损失的定量模型,并为参与 DR 的 ACL 开发了一个包含生命损失成本的优化调度模型。生命损失与制冷功率之间的关系是一个复杂的非线性高阶分数函数,商业求解器无法解决。因此,在 Dinkelbach 算法的基础上,提出了一种具有复杂非线性分数的双目标多权重优化算法,并通过数学实例验证了该算法的可行性。最后,提供了一个基于 IEEE 39 总线测试系统的数值示例,以证明模型的可行性和所提求解方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
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