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A small state in the asymmetrical bilateral relations: Lithuania in Lithuanian-Russian relations since 2004 不对称双边关系中的小国:2004年以来立陶宛与俄罗斯关系中的立陶宛
Pub Date : 2015-12-11 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2015.0.8880
Dovilė Jakniūnaitė
Abstract In this article, Lithuania's relations with Russia from 2004 to 2014 are examined. This analysis is not much of a challenge in itself: there have been no significant changes in the overall quality of the two countries' relations, no new issues of disagreement, and the countries' approaches to each other have also remained unchanged. This analysis is significant in a different way-relations with Russia motivate and induce Lithuania's entire foreign policy arena, from its strategies to the country's everyday debates. Understanding Lithuania's relations with Russia leads to insights regarding Lithuania's geopolitical thinking and how Lithuania represents itself. Therefore, in this article, the goal is to demonstrate that an analysis of Lithuanian-Russian relations since 2004 not only explains Lithuanian foreign policy, but also reveals an enduring and negative stability in bilateral relations notwithstanding constant turbulence and quarrels.
本文以2004年至2014年立陶宛与俄罗斯的关系为研究对象。这种分析本身并没有太大的挑战:两国关系的整体质量没有发生重大变化,没有新的分歧问题,两国对待彼此的方式也没有改变。这一分析的意义在于另一种不同的方式——与俄罗斯的关系激励并引导着立陶宛的整个外交政策舞台,从其战略到该国的日常辩论。了解立陶宛与俄罗斯的关系有助于了解立陶宛的地缘政治思想以及立陶宛如何表现自己。因此,本文的目标是证明,分析立陶宛与俄罗斯自2004年以来的关系不仅可以解释立陶宛的外交政策,而且还揭示了双边关系的持久和消极稳定性,尽管不断动荡和争吵。
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引用次数: 10
Volatility and western European party systems: two new approaches 波动性和西欧政党制度:两种新方法
Pub Date : 2015-12-11 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2015.0.8877
J. Lane
Abstract The sharp rise in electoral volatility in the last two decades calls for a new explanation of Western European party systems. The established party system theory-Lipset and Rokkan’s “freezing hypothesis”- is not confirmed by today’s data. But what framework should replace Lipset and Rokkan’s? One option is to focus on values in postmodern society, as French sociologist Alain Touraine does, by emphasizing how individualism trumps social cohesion formed by social cleavages. The rational-choice approach, combined with a principal-agent model perspective, offers another lens for exploring electoral volatility in Western Europe. In this paper, gross and net volatility are analysed with both Touraine’s sociological approach and with a new principal-agent model of political election, underlying dynamics.
在过去的二十年中,选举动荡的急剧上升要求对西欧政党制度进行新的解释。既定的政党制度理论——利普塞特和罗坎的“冻结假说”——并没有得到今天的数据的证实。但是应该用什么框架来取代Lipset和Rokkan的框架呢?一种选择是关注后现代社会的价值观,就像法国社会学家阿兰·图兰(Alain Touraine)所做的那样,强调个人主义如何战胜由社会分裂形成的社会凝聚力。理性选择的方法,结合委托代理模型的观点,为探索西欧选举的不稳定性提供了另一个视角。在本文中,总波动率和净波动率用Touraine的社会学方法和一个新的政治选举的委托代理模型进行了分析,这是潜在的动态。
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引用次数: 0
Radical party system changes in five east-central European states: Eurosceptic and populist parties on the move in the 2010s 中东欧五国激进政党制度的变化:2010年代的疑欧派和民粹主义政党
Pub Date : 2015-12-11 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2015.0.8878
A. Ágh
Abstract This paper, in addition to describing the historical trajectory of party systems in the new European Union member states in general, describes the particular cases of five new Eastern-Central European (ECE) member states (NMS-5, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia), and the recent emergence of new, second party systems that have recently emerged after the collapse of their first party systems. The main message of this paper is that the historical transformations of the NMS- 5 can best be described using a matrix of four party types: 1) populist, 2) Eurosceptic, 3) protest, and 4) extreme-right. Although Eurosceptic parties have been in the forefront of recent analysis, the other three forms included in this matrix are equally important, and even enhance the understanding of Eurosceptic parties in the NMS-5. Like the international literature, the focus of this paper is also on party developments, but includes a complex approach that accounts not only for political, but also for socio-economic, developments in the NMS-5.
本文除了概括地描述欧盟新成员国政党制度的历史轨迹外,还描述了五个新东欧-中欧(ECE)成员国(NMS-5、捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚)的特殊案例,以及它们在第一党制度崩溃后最近出现的新的第二党制度。本文的主要信息是,NMS- 5的历史转型可以用四种政党类型的矩阵来描述:1)民粹主义,2)欧洲怀疑主义,3)抗议主义,4)极右翼。尽管欧洲怀疑主义政党一直处于最近分析的前沿,但该矩阵中包含的其他三种形式同样重要,甚至可以增强对NMS-5中欧洲怀疑主义政党的理解。与国际文献一样,本文的重点也放在政党发展上,但包括一个复杂的方法,不仅考虑了NMS-5的政治发展,还考虑了社会经济发展。
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引用次数: 9
Poland’s international relations scholarly community and its distinguishing features according to the 2014 trip survey of international relations scholars 根据2014年国际关系学者的旅行调查,波兰的国际关系学术界及其特色
Pub Date : 2015-12-11 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2015.0.8881
J. Czaputowicz, Kamil Ławniczak
Abstract In 2014, Poland was the first Central and Eastern European (CEE) country to be included in the Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) project. This article characterizes the Polish International Relations (IR) scholarly community and compares it with other IR scholarly communities throughout the world that also participated in the 2014 TRIP project. The 2014 TRIP survey, the Survey of International Relations Scholars (SIRS) asked Polish participants to identify: the strengths and weaknesses of the Polish IR discipline, influential Polish scholars and books published in Poland, and useful divergent study areas for practical policy purposes. Polish SIRS participants were also asked to share their research interests in both substantive areas and geographical regions, their opinions on economic and social issues, and their predictions concerning important developments in international policy. We concluded that while Polish scholars have much in common with their counterparts around the world, there are also significant differences. For example, Polish scholars identify themselves as more conservative than their international peers in social and ideological matters, more liberal in the economic sphere, and were more pessimistic about relations between the US and Russia in the near future.
2014年,波兰成为首个被纳入“教学、研究与国际政策”(TRIP)项目的中东欧国家。本文描述了波兰国际关系(IR)学术界的特点,并将其与世界上参与2014年TRIP项目的其他国际关系学术界进行了比较。2014年的TRIP调查,国际关系学者调查(SIRS)要求波兰参与者确定:波兰国际关系学科的优势和劣势,有影响力的波兰学者和在波兰出版的书籍,以及对实际政策目的有用的不同研究领域。还请波兰SIRS与会者分享他们在实质性领域和地理区域的研究兴趣,他们对经济和社会问题的意见,以及他们对国际政策重要发展的预测。我们的结论是,尽管波兰学者与世界各地的同行有很多共同之处,但也存在显著差异。例如,波兰学者认为自己在社会和意识形态问题上比国际同行更保守,在经济领域更自由,对美俄关系在不久的将来更悲观。
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引用次数: 2
Review of Jean Lopez & Lasha Otkhmezuri, Joukov: L'Homme Qui A Vaincu Hitler Jean Lopez和Lasha Otkhmezuri评论,Joukov:打败希特勒的人
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2014.3.4917
J. Lane
Most of the history of the Baltic States in the 20th century is completely dominated by their relation to the Eastern giant, the Soviet Union. What the Soviet Union represented was not only an authoritarian, and at times, totalitarian rulership but also a constant fear of the unpredictable. Two French military historians, connected with the journal Guerre et Histoire, have recently managed to go through newly opened archives in Russia to unveil the unpredictable career of the most distinguished commander of the Red Army, Gregory Zhukov. Their book entirely confirms the impression among Baltic people that the Soviet Union was fundamentally instable in the sense that anything could happen: state arbitrariness. The research methodology employed in this biography of Zhukov is a novelty, as the French scholars have refrained from using the many memoires written by the participants of Operation Barbarossa. Instead, they rely upon so-called primary sources to show how all the memoir writers, including Zhukov, deviated from the truth in one way or another in order to tell self-flattering stories. The result is a brilliant analysis of how the Soviet state operated in its most important section, defence. It is also very interesting because it analyses strategies employed by both sides, not only by the Red Army but also by Wehrmacht Ostheer. The findings from this in-depth analysis of Zhukov’s life – a real roller coaster – include the following points:
波罗的海国家在20世纪的大部分历史完全被它们与东方巨人苏联的关系所主导。苏联所代表的不仅是威权主义,有时是极权主义统治,而且是对不可预测的持续恐惧。两位与《Guerre et Histoire》杂志有联系的法国军事历史学家,最近通过查阅俄罗斯新开放的档案,揭开了最杰出的红军指挥官格雷戈里·朱可夫(Gregory Zhukov)不可预知的职业生涯。他们的书完全证实了波罗的海人民的印象,即苏联从根本上来说是不稳定的,因为任何事情都可能发生:国家的专断。朱可夫传记所采用的研究方法是新颖的,因为法国学者没有使用巴巴罗萨行动参与者所写的许多回忆录。相反,他们依靠所谓的第一手资料来证明,包括朱可夫在内的所有回忆录作者如何以这样或那样的方式偏离真相,以讲述自我吹捧的故事。其结果是对苏联政府如何在其最重要的领域——国防——运作进行了精彩的分析。这本书也很有趣,因为它分析了双方的战略,不仅是红军的,还有国防军的。对朱可夫的人生——一个真正的过山车——进行深入分析,得出以下结论:
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引用次数: 0
Friedrich Lenger, Werner Sombart 1863-1941 弗里德里希·朗格,维尔纳·索姆巴特1863-1941
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.15388/BJPS.2014.3.4864
J. Lane
The rise and roots of Nazi Germany is one of the most debated issues in social science today. It is a recurrent topic in the media and new books continue to provide further analyses and perspectives. The key question, of course, is how much did the Germans themselves know and approve of? Friedrich Lenger, a historian at the University of Giessen, gives a fascinating perspective on what has been called “the German catastrophe” with his penetrating study of the life and writings of Werner Sombart, the most quoted political and social scientist of the interwar years. [...]
纳粹德国的兴起和根源是当今社会科学中最具争议的问题之一。这是一个反复出现在媒体上的话题,新书不断提供进一步的分析和观点。当然,关键问题是,德国人自己知道多少,赞成多少?吉森大学的历史学家弗里德里希·兰格对两次世界大战期间被引用最多的政治和社会科学家维尔纳·桑巴特的生平和著作进行了深入研究,对所谓的“德国灾难”给出了一个引人入胜的视角。[…]
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引用次数: 1
A Review of Family Demographics and Family Policies in the Nordic Countries 北欧国家家庭人口统计和家庭政策综述
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2014.3.4871
Anne Skevik Grødem
The aim of this article is to review key aspects of family demographics and family policies in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland, and discuss similarities and differences between the five countries. After a brief historical sketch, some aspect s of family demographics – union formation and dissolution, fertility, and female employment rates – are presented. The main part of the article reviews family policies: family benefits, parental leaves, public child-care and financial support for home-based care. The article ends with a discussion of future challenges for Nordic family policies, and the potential for policy transfer. It is emphasised that the “Nordic model” of family policy is a model with at least four faces: the “low-key” Finnish version, the maximalist equality-and-choice-oriented Norwegian version, the Swedish dual earner/dual carer version and the universal employment-oriented Danish version.
本文的目的是回顾瑞典、丹麦、芬兰、挪威和冰岛的家庭人口统计和家庭政策的关键方面,并讨论这五个国家之间的异同。在简短的历史概述之后,介绍了家庭人口统计的一些方面——婚姻的形成和解散、生育率和女性就业率。文章的主要部分回顾了家庭政策:家庭福利,育儿假,公共儿童保育和家庭护理的财政支持。文章最后讨论了北欧家庭政策未来面临的挑战,以及政策转移的可能性。报告强调,家庭政策的“北欧模式”至少有四种面貌:“低调”的芬兰模式、以平等和选择为导向的最大主义挪威模式、双重挣钱/双重照顾者的瑞典模式和以普遍就业为导向的丹麦模式。
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引用次数: 5
Perceived Magnitude of Unemployment: A Dark Horse in the Literature on Public Attitudes Towards Governmental Responsibilities to the Unemployed?F 失业的感知程度:公众对政府对失业责任的态度文献中的一匹黑马?F
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2014.3.4872
Greta Mackonytė, Catalina Lomos, Wim van Oorschot
Abstract In this article, we propose a new variable in the formation of individual attitudes towards governmental responsibilities to the unemployed – the perceived magnitude of unemployment. Our choice is based on the argument that people’s reactions are strongly influenced by subjective meanings ascribed to social realities. We apply a multilevel analysis approach and mainly use the European Social Survey (2008). Results show that the perceived magnitude of unemployment positively influences public attitudes towards governmental responsibilities to the unemployed, when corrected for a series of relevant individual and national characteristics. Moreover, of all tested measures of actual unemployment rates, only the long-term unemployment rate has a significant effect on attitudes towards governmental responsibilities to the unemployed. Interestingly, this effect is negative, which raises questions about how the social realities of unemployment translate into perceptions of unemployment.
在这篇文章中,我们提出了一个新的变量,在个人态度的形成对政府对失业者的责任-感知程度的失业。我们的选择是基于这样一种观点,即人们的反应受到归因于社会现实的主观含义的强烈影响。我们采用多层次分析方法,主要使用欧洲社会调查(2008)。结果表明,当针对一系列相关的个人和国家特征进行校正时,感知到的失业程度会积极影响公众对政府对失业者责任的态度。此外,在所有经过检验的实际失业率衡量标准中,只有长期失业率对人们对政府对失业者的责任的态度有重大影响。有趣的是,这种影响是消极的,这就提出了一个问题,即失业的社会现实如何转化为对失业的看法。
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引用次数: 2
Learning the Economic Vote at Local Elections: Case of Lithuania, 1995-2011 学习地方选举中的经济投票:以立陶宛为例,1995-2011
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2014.3.4868
Mažvydas Jastramskis
Abstract This paper argues that economic voting is not limited to first-order elections and also can be observed in local elections (usually considered as second-order). Though local governments do not have the power to shape the macro-economic policy of the state, they may have some instruments to influence the well-being of their regions. Moreover, voters may perceive them as accountable for the state of the economy in the region and punish or reward them in local elections on basis of the economic trends. Lithuania appears to be a quite interesting case in which to test these theoretical arguments. Party identification and cleavages are quite weak here: therefore economic voting can be expected to provide at least some explanation of voting (it should not be shadowed by other social factors). Six local municipal council elections were held in Lithuania since the transition to democracy: the first were held in 1995 and the last in 2011. While controlling for important political-contextual factors, this paper strives to compare the impact of economic voting at Lithuania’s municipal elections across time five separate time periods. Results of the empirical analysis reveal that Lithuanians are learning the economic vote with unemployment being more significant as a factor in explaining changes in votes for dominant parties in the municipal councils in the more recent period than in the first several elections. A referendum effect is also observed: parties that belong to the national government parties are punished more during economic downturns.
摘要本文认为经济投票不仅局限于一级选举,在地方选举(通常被认为是二级选举)中也可以观察到经济投票。虽然地方政府没有权力塑造国家的宏观经济政策,但它们可能有一些工具来影响本地区的福祉。此外,选民可能认为他们对该地区的经济状况负有责任,并根据经济趋势在地方选举中惩罚或奖励他们。立陶宛似乎是一个非常有趣的例子,可以用来检验这些理论论点。政党认同和分裂在这里相当薄弱:因此,经济投票至少可以提供一些投票的解释(它不应该被其他社会因素所掩盖)。自向民主过渡以来,立陶宛举行了六次地方市政委员会选举:第一次在1995年举行,最后一次在2011年举行。在控制重要的政治背景因素的同时,本文努力比较经济投票在立陶宛五个不同时期的市政选举中的影响。实证分析的结果表明,立陶宛人正在学习经济投票,失业是解释最近一段时间市政议会中占主导地位的政党的选票变化的一个更重要的因素,而不是前几次选举。公投效应也被观察到:在经济低迷时期,属于国家政府政党的政党受到的惩罚更多。
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引用次数: 1
Zenonas Norkus, on Baltic Slovenia and Adriatic Lithuania 波罗的海的斯洛文尼亚和亚得里亚海的立陶宛
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.15388/bjps.2014.3.4865
Marharyta Fabrykant
Several years ago, the 20th anniversary of the fall of Communism prompted a considerable number of academic meetings and publication. By that time, most ex-communist states had already made their new identities clear and familiar to the world – or so it seemed. Transitology was slowly growing out of intellectual fashion, and the whole region affected by the post-communist transformation was more and more frequently regarded as stable and comparatively uninteresting. Amid this fading interest, conferences that aimed to re-examine of the post-communist transition were considered, even by the participants themselves, more of a ritual commemoration than a necessary attempt to solve pressing issues.
几年前,为纪念共产主义垮台20周年,举办了大量学术会议和出版物。到那时,大多数前共产主义国家已经让世界清楚和熟悉了它们的新身份——至少看起来是这样。过渡性学逐渐脱离了知识界的潮流,整个地区受到后共产主义转型的影响,越来越多地被认为是稳定的,相对无趣的。在这种兴趣逐渐消退的情况下,旨在重新审视后共产主义转型的会议,甚至被参与者自己视为一种仪式纪念,而不是解决紧迫问题的必要尝试。
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引用次数: 0
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Baltic Journal of Political Science
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