Pub Date : 2023-05-18DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1038883
Mathilda Englund, Marlon Vieira Passos, Karin André, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Lisa Segnestam, K. Barquet
Floods disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups. Social vulnerability assessments are the first step in designing just and equitable flood risk reduction strategies. In Sweden, earlier social vulnerability indices apply top-down approaches. In this paper, we develop and apply a combined bottom-up and top-down approach to assess social vulnerability to flooding at a sub-municipal level in Sweden. We tested an indicator-based climate risk and vulnerability framework, more specifically the impact chain method suggested by the Vulnerability Sourcebook. We involved stakeholders using various participatory methods in three workshops, interviews, and informal exchanges to identify variables and indicators for social vulnerability. The Indicators were aggregated into a composite social vulnerability index using exploratory factor analysis. We thereafter mapped the social vulnerability index scores to uncover spatial injustices. We found that the proposed social vulnerability index captures municipal nuances better than national-level approaches. Our findings indicate an uneven spatial distribution of social vulnerability that mimics the overall patterns of income segregation found in the municipality. Many areas that score low in social vulnerability endure high exposure to floods. The social vulnerability index can support municipalities in designing just and equitable interventions toward flood risk reduction by serving as an input to policymaking, investment strategies, and civil protection.
{"title":"Constructing a social vulnerability index for flooding: insights from a municipality in Sweden","authors":"Mathilda Englund, Marlon Vieira Passos, Karin André, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Lisa Segnestam, K. Barquet","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1038883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1038883","url":null,"abstract":"Floods disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups. Social vulnerability assessments are the first step in designing just and equitable flood risk reduction strategies. In Sweden, earlier social vulnerability indices apply top-down approaches. In this paper, we develop and apply a combined bottom-up and top-down approach to assess social vulnerability to flooding at a sub-municipal level in Sweden. We tested an indicator-based climate risk and vulnerability framework, more specifically the impact chain method suggested by the Vulnerability Sourcebook. We involved stakeholders using various participatory methods in three workshops, interviews, and informal exchanges to identify variables and indicators for social vulnerability. The Indicators were aggregated into a composite social vulnerability index using exploratory factor analysis. We thereafter mapped the social vulnerability index scores to uncover spatial injustices. We found that the proposed social vulnerability index captures municipal nuances better than national-level approaches. Our findings indicate an uneven spatial distribution of social vulnerability that mimics the overall patterns of income segregation found in the municipality. Many areas that score low in social vulnerability endure high exposure to floods. The social vulnerability index can support municipalities in designing just and equitable interventions toward flood risk reduction by serving as an input to policymaking, investment strategies, and civil protection.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44716116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-17DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1127026
M. Valverde, Bianca Nunes Calado, Gabrielle Gomes Calado, L. Kuroki, Ricardo Brambila, A. R. Sousa
Cities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change's impacts and poorly adapted to extreme variability. This study aimed to evaluate climate projections of air temperature and precipitation in seven cities in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo that correspond to the Greater ABC Paulista. We used high-resolution models Eta-HADGEM2_ES (CMIP5), CNRM-CM6-1-HR (CMIP6), and the TerraClimate database to analyze future projections and the specific warming levels (SWLs), respectively. Model data were validated with observed data and bias was removed. A bias correction factor was generated and used in the climate projections for the different emission scenarios. The results show a consensus between the models and the SWLs (2 and 4°C) for the increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures for all municipalities in ABC Paulista in different emission scenarios until the end of the 21st century. For the nearest future (2020–2040), the city of São Caetano do Sul (SCS) shows the highest positive annual anomalies of Tmax concerning the climatological period (1985–2015), for the scenario RCP4.5 (2.8°C) and the RCP8.5 (7.4°C), according to projections from the Eta-HADGEM2_ES, highlighting summer and autumn as the hottest. For precipitation, there was a consensus between the Eta-HADGEM2_ES and the CNRM-CM6-1-HR for a reduction in all scenarios and time-slices 2020–2040 and 2041–2070. The municipalities of Diadema (−78.4%) and SCS (−78%) showed the most significant reductions in December for the RCP8.5, and for SSP5-8.5, SCS shows −30.9% in December for the 2020–2040 time-slice. On the other hand, TerraClimate presents excess rain for Ribeirão Pires (+24.8%) and Santo André (+23.7%) in winter for SWL4°C. These results suggest that an increase in Tmax and Tmin, as projected, should influence the intensity of extreme heat events. Furthermore, a reduction in annual and seasonal rainfall does not mean a decrease in the region's extreme daily events that cause floods and landslides. However, it leaves an alert of water scarcity for the supply and demand of the population. ABC Paulista does not have adaptation plans to face extreme climate change. The results can contribute to the first phase of creating an adaptation plan, giving a first view of the climate threat that should intensify until the end of the twentieth century affecting the most vulnerable municipalities.
{"title":"Climate projections of precipitation and temperature in cities from ABC Paulista, in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo—Brazil","authors":"M. Valverde, Bianca Nunes Calado, Gabrielle Gomes Calado, L. Kuroki, Ricardo Brambila, A. R. Sousa","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1127026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1127026","url":null,"abstract":"Cities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change's impacts and poorly adapted to extreme variability. This study aimed to evaluate climate projections of air temperature and precipitation in seven cities in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo that correspond to the Greater ABC Paulista. We used high-resolution models Eta-HADGEM2_ES (CMIP5), CNRM-CM6-1-HR (CMIP6), and the TerraClimate database to analyze future projections and the specific warming levels (SWLs), respectively. Model data were validated with observed data and bias was removed. A bias correction factor was generated and used in the climate projections for the different emission scenarios. The results show a consensus between the models and the SWLs (2 and 4°C) for the increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures for all municipalities in ABC Paulista in different emission scenarios until the end of the 21st century. For the nearest future (2020–2040), the city of São Caetano do Sul (SCS) shows the highest positive annual anomalies of Tmax concerning the climatological period (1985–2015), for the scenario RCP4.5 (2.8°C) and the RCP8.5 (7.4°C), according to projections from the Eta-HADGEM2_ES, highlighting summer and autumn as the hottest. For precipitation, there was a consensus between the Eta-HADGEM2_ES and the CNRM-CM6-1-HR for a reduction in all scenarios and time-slices 2020–2040 and 2041–2070. The municipalities of Diadema (−78.4%) and SCS (−78%) showed the most significant reductions in December for the RCP8.5, and for SSP5-8.5, SCS shows −30.9% in December for the 2020–2040 time-slice. On the other hand, TerraClimate presents excess rain for Ribeirão Pires (+24.8%) and Santo André (+23.7%) in winter for SWL4°C. These results suggest that an increase in Tmax and Tmin, as projected, should influence the intensity of extreme heat events. Furthermore, a reduction in annual and seasonal rainfall does not mean a decrease in the region's extreme daily events that cause floods and landslides. However, it leaves an alert of water scarcity for the supply and demand of the population. ABC Paulista does not have adaptation plans to face extreme climate change. The results can contribute to the first phase of creating an adaptation plan, giving a first view of the climate threat that should intensify until the end of the twentieth century affecting the most vulnerable municipalities.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45523614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-17DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1193910
Ibsa Dawid Mume, J. Haji, M. Aman
This study surveys farmers in the Kersa district, East Hararghe zone, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia, to assess their adaptability and their perceptions of the role of small-scale irrigation in improving resilience to climate change. Data were collected from a sample of 288 randomly selected households (130 adopters and 158 non-adopters of small-scale irrigation). A household survey was used to gather quantitative data, and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Data were analyzed using principal component analysis to generate the resilience capacity index of the households. Analysis revealed that adopters were better off on all indicators of resilience, including access to food and income, assets, agricultural production, stability, and adaptive capacity. The findings also suggest that households with high resilience are more resilient to climate change. These results suggest that small-scale irrigation increases responsiveness to irregular weather patterns, significantly contributing to increasing farmers' resilience by minimizing the impacts of climate change. Therefore, policymakers should pay due attention to mitigating the impacts of climate change and improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers.
{"title":"Evaluating farm household resilience and perceptions of the role of small-scale irrigation in improving adaptability to climate change stress: evidence from eastern Ethiopia","authors":"Ibsa Dawid Mume, J. Haji, M. Aman","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1193910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1193910","url":null,"abstract":"This study surveys farmers in the Kersa district, East Hararghe zone, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia, to assess their adaptability and their perceptions of the role of small-scale irrigation in improving resilience to climate change. Data were collected from a sample of 288 randomly selected households (130 adopters and 158 non-adopters of small-scale irrigation). A household survey was used to gather quantitative data, and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Data were analyzed using principal component analysis to generate the resilience capacity index of the households. Analysis revealed that adopters were better off on all indicators of resilience, including access to food and income, assets, agricultural production, stability, and adaptive capacity. The findings also suggest that households with high resilience are more resilient to climate change. These results suggest that small-scale irrigation increases responsiveness to irregular weather patterns, significantly contributing to increasing farmers' resilience by minimizing the impacts of climate change. Therefore, policymakers should pay due attention to mitigating the impacts of climate change and improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46434390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-16DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1177025
R. Newell
Integrated approaches to planning and policy are important for making progress toward sustainability. A variety of frameworks have been developed for facilitating such approaches to planning and policy, such as the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. However, the WEF nexus has been criticized for a lack of clarity in how to apply the framework, whereas a goals-oriented framework potentially could be more easily applied and operationalized. This paper proposes such a framework, referred to here as the climate-biodiversity-health (CBH) nexus. The paper details the features of the CBH nexus framework, the interactions among its domains, and its potential applications. The CBH nexus consists of three domains (i.e., climate action, biodiversity conservation, and community health) and six subdomains (i.e., climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, habitat protection and regeneration, wildlife health and welfare, physical health, and mental health). The framework can be applied in practice to develop checklists/toolkits for guiding new development and as a basis for creating community indicator systems. It can also be applied in research to identify gaps in planning and policy documents and as a lens for participatory modeling exercises. Continued experimentation with, and improvement of, the CBH framework will reveal its most useful applications, thereby opening new opportunities for communities to effectively develop and implement integrated sustainability plans and policies.
{"title":"The climate-biodiversity-health nexus: a framework for integrated community sustainability planning in the Anthropocene","authors":"R. Newell","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1177025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1177025","url":null,"abstract":"Integrated approaches to planning and policy are important for making progress toward sustainability. A variety of frameworks have been developed for facilitating such approaches to planning and policy, such as the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. However, the WEF nexus has been criticized for a lack of clarity in how to apply the framework, whereas a goals-oriented framework potentially could be more easily applied and operationalized. This paper proposes such a framework, referred to here as the climate-biodiversity-health (CBH) nexus. The paper details the features of the CBH nexus framework, the interactions among its domains, and its potential applications. The CBH nexus consists of three domains (i.e., climate action, biodiversity conservation, and community health) and six subdomains (i.e., climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, habitat protection and regeneration, wildlife health and welfare, physical health, and mental health). The framework can be applied in practice to develop checklists/toolkits for guiding new development and as a basis for creating community indicator systems. It can also be applied in research to identify gaps in planning and policy documents and as a lens for participatory modeling exercises. Continued experimentation with, and improvement of, the CBH framework will reveal its most useful applications, thereby opening new opportunities for communities to effectively develop and implement integrated sustainability plans and policies.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43442900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-15DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1129789
Jonas Peisker, T. Schinko
Lack of perceived efficacy can be an important barrier to climate mitigation action at various scales. Here, we study how a participatory visioning process, the Climate Modernity workshop in Styria, Austria, affected participants' efficacy outcomes. To this end, we conducted two survey waves eliciting self- and response efficacy regarding possible mitigation measures. We estimate difference-in-differences models and corroborate the findings using qualitative participant feedback. The results indicate that the intervention tended to decrease personal self-efficacy, in particular with regard to controversial topics like the transformation of the transport system. This suggests that participatory stakeholder processes can draw attention to the conflict potential and complexity of specific mitigation policies, decreasing the perceived feasibility of implementing them. The workshop, however, tended to increase particpants' personal response efficacy, particularly regarding voting for pro-environmental candidates. Accordingly, participatory processes could raise trust in the democratic process and in the effectiveness of making a green voting decision.
{"title":"Yes we can? Effects of a participatory visioning process on perceived climate efficacy","authors":"Jonas Peisker, T. Schinko","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1129789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1129789","url":null,"abstract":"Lack of perceived efficacy can be an important barrier to climate mitigation action at various scales. Here, we study how a participatory visioning process, the Climate Modernity workshop in Styria, Austria, affected participants' efficacy outcomes. To this end, we conducted two survey waves eliciting self- and response efficacy regarding possible mitigation measures. We estimate difference-in-differences models and corroborate the findings using qualitative participant feedback. The results indicate that the intervention tended to decrease personal self-efficacy, in particular with regard to controversial topics like the transformation of the transport system. This suggests that participatory stakeholder processes can draw attention to the conflict potential and complexity of specific mitigation policies, decreasing the perceived feasibility of implementing them. The workshop, however, tended to increase particpants' personal response efficacy, particularly regarding voting for pro-environmental candidates. Accordingly, participatory processes could raise trust in the democratic process and in the effectiveness of making a green voting decision.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81858066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-10DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1085740
Francisco Martin del Campo, S. Singh, Eric N. Mijts
Introduction Socio-metabolic risks (SMRs) are systemic risks associated with the availability of critical resources, the integrity of material circulation, and the distribution of their costs and benefits in a socio-ecological system. For resource-stressed systems like small island nations, understanding trade-offs and synergies between critical resources is not only crucial, but urgent. Climate change is already putting small islands at high risk through more frequent and intense extreme weather events, changing precipitation patterns, and threats of inundation with future sea-level rise. Methods This study compares the shifting resource-baseline for 14 Caribbean island nations for the year 2000 and 2017. We analyze water, energy, and food (WEF) and their nexus through the lens of SMRs, using indicators related to their availability, access, consumption, and self-sufficiency. Results Our findings point to the decreasing availability of all three resources within the Caribbean region. Meanwhile, between 2000 and 2017, consumption levels have increased by 20% with respect to water (from 230 to 275 m3/cap/yr) and primary energy (from 89 to 110 GJ/cap/yr), and 5% for food (from 2,570 to 2,700 kcal/cap/day). While universal access to these resources increased in the population, food and energy self-sufficiency of the region has declined. Discussion Current patterns of resource-use, combined with maladaptive practices, and climate insensitive development—such as coastal squeeze, centralized energy systems, and trade policies—magnify islands' vulnerability. Disturbances, such as climate-induced extreme events, environmental changes, financial crises, or overexploitation of local resources, could lead to cascading dysfunction and eventual breakdown of the biophysical basis of island systems. This research is a first attempt at operationalizing the concept of SMRs, and offers a deeper understanding of risk-related resource dynamics on small islands, and highlights the urgency for policy response.
{"title":"The resource (in)sufficiency of the Caribbean: analyzing socio-metabolic risks (SMR) of water, energy, and food","authors":"Francisco Martin del Campo, S. Singh, Eric N. Mijts","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1085740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1085740","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction Socio-metabolic risks (SMRs) are systemic risks associated with the availability of critical resources, the integrity of material circulation, and the distribution of their costs and benefits in a socio-ecological system. For resource-stressed systems like small island nations, understanding trade-offs and synergies between critical resources is not only crucial, but urgent. Climate change is already putting small islands at high risk through more frequent and intense extreme weather events, changing precipitation patterns, and threats of inundation with future sea-level rise. Methods This study compares the shifting resource-baseline for 14 Caribbean island nations for the year 2000 and 2017. We analyze water, energy, and food (WEF) and their nexus through the lens of SMRs, using indicators related to their availability, access, consumption, and self-sufficiency. Results Our findings point to the decreasing availability of all three resources within the Caribbean region. Meanwhile, between 2000 and 2017, consumption levels have increased by 20% with respect to water (from 230 to 275 m3/cap/yr) and primary energy (from 89 to 110 GJ/cap/yr), and 5% for food (from 2,570 to 2,700 kcal/cap/day). While universal access to these resources increased in the population, food and energy self-sufficiency of the region has declined. Discussion Current patterns of resource-use, combined with maladaptive practices, and climate insensitive development—such as coastal squeeze, centralized energy systems, and trade policies—magnify islands' vulnerability. Disturbances, such as climate-induced extreme events, environmental changes, financial crises, or overexploitation of local resources, could lead to cascading dysfunction and eventual breakdown of the biophysical basis of island systems. This research is a first attempt at operationalizing the concept of SMRs, and offers a deeper understanding of risk-related resource dynamics on small islands, and highlights the urgency for policy response.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41926653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-09DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1204840
V. Sick, Katy Armstrong, S. Moni
conduct and
行为和
{"title":"Editorial: Harmonizing life cycle analysis (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) guidelines: a common framework for consistent conduct and transparent reporting of carbon dioxide removal and CCU technology appraisal","authors":"V. Sick, Katy Armstrong, S. Moni","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1204840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1204840","url":null,"abstract":"conduct and","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44381953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-05DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1067960
C. Gupta, R. Bhowmik
The General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation had shown potential in yielding long-term statistical attributes of Indian precipitation and temperature which exhibit substantial inter-seasonal variation. However, GCM outputs experience substantial model structural bias that needs to be reduced prior to forcing them into hydrological models and using them in deriving insights on the impact of climate change. Traditionally, univariate bias correction approaches that can successfully yield the mean and the standard deviation of the observed variable, while ignoring the interdependence between multiple variables, are considered. Limited efforts have been made to develop bivariate bias-correction over a large region with an additional focus on the cross-correlation between two variables. Considering these, the current study suggests two objectives: (i) To apply a bivariate bias correction approach based on bivariate ranking to reduce bias in GCM historical simulation over India, (ii) To explore the potential of the proposed approach in yielding inter-seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature while also yielding the cross-correlation. This study considers three GCMs with fourteen ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Assessment Report-5 (CMIP5). The bivariate ranks of meteorological pairs are applied on marginal ranks till a stationary position is achieved. Results show that the bivariate approach substantially reduces bias in the mean and the standard deviation. Further, the bivariate approach performs better during non-monsoon months as compared to monsoon months in reducing the bias in the cross-correlation between precipitation and temperature as the typical negative cross-correlation structure is common during non-monsoon months. The study finds that the proposed approach successfully reproduces inter-seasonal variation in metrological variables across India.
{"title":"Application of a bivariate bias-correction approach to yield long-term attributes of Indian precipitation and temperature","authors":"C. Gupta, R. Bhowmik","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1067960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1067960","url":null,"abstract":"The General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation had shown potential in yielding long-term statistical attributes of Indian precipitation and temperature which exhibit substantial inter-seasonal variation. However, GCM outputs experience substantial model structural bias that needs to be reduced prior to forcing them into hydrological models and using them in deriving insights on the impact of climate change. Traditionally, univariate bias correction approaches that can successfully yield the mean and the standard deviation of the observed variable, while ignoring the interdependence between multiple variables, are considered. Limited efforts have been made to develop bivariate bias-correction over a large region with an additional focus on the cross-correlation between two variables. Considering these, the current study suggests two objectives: (i) To apply a bivariate bias correction approach based on bivariate ranking to reduce bias in GCM historical simulation over India, (ii) To explore the potential of the proposed approach in yielding inter-seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature while also yielding the cross-correlation. This study considers three GCMs with fourteen ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Assessment Report-5 (CMIP5). The bivariate ranks of meteorological pairs are applied on marginal ranks till a stationary position is achieved. Results show that the bivariate approach substantially reduces bias in the mean and the standard deviation. Further, the bivariate approach performs better during non-monsoon months as compared to monsoon months in reducing the bias in the cross-correlation between precipitation and temperature as the typical negative cross-correlation structure is common during non-monsoon months. The study finds that the proposed approach successfully reproduces inter-seasonal variation in metrological variables across India.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91240487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1166828
Enda O’Brien, P. Nolan
The TRANSLATE project was established in 2021 by Met Éireann, the Irish national meteorological service, to provide standardized future climate projections for Ireland. This paper outlines the principles and main methods that were used to generate the first set of such projections and presents selected results to the end of the 21st century. Two separate ensembles of dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections were analyzed. These produce very consistent results, increasing confidence in both, and in the methods used. Future projected fields show plenty of detail (depending on local geography), but the change maps relative to the base period are much smoother, reflecting the global climate change signal. Future forcing uncertainty is represented by 3 different emission scenarios, while model response uncertainty is represented by sub-ensembles corresponding to different climate sensitivities. The resulting matrix of distinct climate ensembles is complemented by ensembles of temperature threshold-based projections, drawn from the same underlying simulations.
{"title":"TRANSLATE: standardized climate projections for Ireland","authors":"Enda O’Brien, P. Nolan","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1166828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1166828","url":null,"abstract":"The TRANSLATE project was established in 2021 by Met Éireann, the Irish national meteorological service, to provide standardized future climate projections for Ireland. This paper outlines the principles and main methods that were used to generate the first set of such projections and presents selected results to the end of the 21st century. Two separate ensembles of dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections were analyzed. These produce very consistent results, increasing confidence in both, and in the methods used. Future projected fields show plenty of detail (depending on local geography), but the change maps relative to the base period are much smoother, reflecting the global climate change signal. Future forcing uncertainty is represented by 3 different emission scenarios, while model response uncertainty is represented by sub-ensembles corresponding to different climate sensitivities. The resulting matrix of distinct climate ensembles is complemented by ensembles of temperature threshold-based projections, drawn from the same underlying simulations.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44806255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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