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Editorial: Climate migration research and policy connections: progress since the Foresight Report 社论:气候移民研究和政策联系:《远见报告》以来的进展
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1231679
Kees van der Geest, A. de Sherbinin, F. Gemenne, K. Warner
COPYRIGHT © 2023 van der Geest, de Sherbinin, Gemenne and Warner. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Editorial: Climate migration research and policy connections: progress since the Foresight Report
版权所有©2023 van der Geest、de Sherbinin、Gemenne和Warner。这是一篇根据知识共享署名许可(CC BY)条款发布的开放获取文章。根据公认的学术惯例,允许在其他论坛上使用、分发或复制,前提是原作者和版权所有人得到认可,并引用本期刊上的原始出版物。不允许使用、分发或复制不符合这些条款的内容。社论:气候移民研究和政策联系:《远见报告》以来的进展
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引用次数: 1
Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions 近期(年际至十年)气候预测的最新应用和潜力
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
T. O’Kane, Adam A. Scaife, Y. Kushnir, A. Brookshaw, C. Buontempo, David Carlin, Richenda K. Connell, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, Kristian Förster, A. Graça, A. Hobday, V. Kitsios, Larissa van der Laan, Julia F. Lockwood, W. Merryfield, A. Paxian, M. Payne, M. Reader, G. Saville, Doug M. Smith, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, N. Caltabiano, J. Carman, E. Hawkins, N. Keenlyside, Arun Kumar, D. Matei, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Raphael, M. Sparrow, Bo Wu
Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy.
在领先的气候预测中心的努力下,现在产生了持续的常规近期气候预测(NTCP),弥补了季节性预测和气候变化预测之间的差距,提供了无缝气候服务的前景。尽管NTCP是气候科学的一个新领域,并且正在进行积极的研究,以增加对产生熟练预测所需的过程和机制的理解,但这一重大技术成就将初始化方面的进步与未来十年的未来气候综合预测相结合。随着NTCP数据库的不断增长,气候系统外部强迫和内部产生的组成部分的可预测性现在可以量化。关键经济部门的决策者现在可以开始评估这些产品在告知气候风险以及规划未来十年的适应和恢复战略方面的效用。在这里,介绍了金融和经济、水管理、农业和渔业管理方面的案例研究,展示了运营NTCP的新兴效用和潜力,为全球经济关键部门的广泛应用提供了战略规划信息。
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引用次数: 0
Why we're seduced by climate tech and what it means for our happiness 为什么我们被气候技术所诱惑,它对我们的幸福意味着什么
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1193581
Dan Weijers, N. Agar
COPYRIGHT © 2023 Weijers and Agar. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Why we’re seduced by climate tech and what it means for our happiness
版权所有©2023 Weijers and Agar。这是一篇根据知识共享署名许可(CC BY)条款发布的开放获取文章。根据公认的学术惯例,允许在其他论坛上使用、分发或复制,前提是原作者和版权所有人得到认可,并引用本期刊上的原始出版物。不允许使用、分发或复制不符合这些条款的内容。为什么我们被气候技术所诱惑,它对我们的幸福意味着什么
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引用次数: 0
Mitigation of soil nitrous oxide emissions during maize production with basalt amendments 用玄武岩改良剂缓解玉米生产期间土壤氧化亚氮排放
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1203043
Isabella Chiaravalloti, Nicolas Theunissen, Shuang Zhang, Jiuyuan Wang, F. Sun, A. A. Ahmed, E. Pihlap, Chris Reinhard, N. Planavsky
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas that accounts for roughly 6% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and it has risen from its preindustrial concentration of 270 ppb N2O to 332 ppb N2O as a result of human activities. The majority of anthropogenic N2O emissions (52–80%) come from agricultural settings due to high rates of reactive nitrogen fertilizer application. Amending soils with fine-grained basalt is gaining traction as a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathway, and model simulations suggest that this process may also significantly decrease soil N2O emissions. Here, we continuously measure N2O fluxes from large-scale maize mesocosms in a greenhouse setting and use a machine learning framework to assess the relative importance of the levers on N2O fluxes. We observe significant decreases in cumulative N2O emissions (between 29–32%) from mesocosm systems with basalt addition. We find that basalt application rate, soil pH, and surface soil moisture are the strongest levers on N2O emissions depending on the system settings. These results provide empirical support for a potentially significant co-benefit of deploying enhanced rock weathering of silicates (ERW) on managed lands, particularly those subject to elevated rates of reactive nitrogen input.
一氧化二氮(N2O)是一种强效、长寿命的温室气体,约占全球人为温室气体排放量的6%,由于人类活动,其浓度已从工业化前的270 ppb N2O上升到332 ppb。由于活性氮肥施用率高,大多数人为N2O排放(52-80%)来自农业环境。用细粒玄武岩改良土壤作为一种二氧化碳去除(CDR)途径越来越受欢迎,模型模拟表明,这一过程也可能显著减少土壤N2O排放。在这里,我们在温室环境中连续测量大规模玉米中尺度的N2O通量,并使用机器学习框架来评估杠杆对N2O通量的相对重要性。我们观察到,添加玄武岩后,中尺度系统的累积N2O排放量显著减少(29-32%)。我们发现,玄武岩施用率、土壤pH值和地表土壤湿度是影响N2O排放的最强杠杆,具体取决于系统设置。这些结果为在管理土地上部署增强的硅酸盐岩石风化(ERW)提供了经验支持,特别是那些活性氮输入率较高的土地。
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引用次数: 1
Editorial: Solar geoengineering in the horizon: humanitarian dimensions 社论:地平线上的太阳能地球工程:人道主义维度
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1206130
J. Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Sikina Jinnah, P. Suárez
COPYRIGHT © 2023 Arrighi, Singh, Jinnah and Suarez. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Editorial: Solar geoengineering in the horizon: humanitarian dimensions
版权所有©2023 Arrighi、Singh、Jinnah和Suarez。这是一篇根据知识共享署名许可(CC BY)条款发布的开放获取文章。根据公认的学术惯例,允许在其他论坛上使用、分发或复制,前提是原作者和版权所有人得到认可,并引用本期刊上的原始出版物。不允许使用、分发或复制不符合这些条款的内容。社论:地平线上的太阳能地球工程:人道主义维度
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum: The role of Vanua in climate-related voluntary immobility in Fiji 更正:瓦努瓦在斐济与气候有关的自愿不行动方面的作用
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1230600
Merewalesi Yee, K. McNamara, Annah E. Piggott-McKellar, C. McMichael
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the impact of climate and non-climatic parameters on cocoa production: a contextual analysis for Cameroon 评估气候和非气候参数对可可生产的影响:喀麦隆的背景分析
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1069514
Eric Bomdzele, E. Molua
Agriculture remains the mainstay of Cameroon's economy, with cocoa as one of its key export commodities. However, cocoa production may be affected by climate-related stressors. This study assesses the influence of climate and non-climate parameters on cocoa performance in Cameroon. We use time series data for temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, land use, labour hours, pesticide application, and cocoa output in Cameroon spanning 60 years (1961 to 2021). Trend analyses reveal a stochastic response of crop production under climate variation. Leveraging on the perennial crop supply response framework, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) reveals short-term climate impacts on cocoa production. The econometric estimation shows that climate and non-climate parameters explain the variations in cocoa output. More specifically, the short-run results reveal that temperature, carbon dioxide emission, land use, and pesticide quantity significantly increase crop yield, whereas rainfall decreases it substantially. Furthermore, the long-run analysis indicates that temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, and land use are significant negative determinants of the yearly changes in cocoa output. We recommend government policy reforms which address access to land, subsidies/climate finance and improved production technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance farmers' adaptive capacities to climatic stressors.
农业仍然是喀麦隆经济的支柱,可可是其主要出口商品之一。然而,可可产量可能受到气候相关压力因素的影响。本研究评估了气候和非气候参数对喀麦隆可可生产性能的影响。我们使用了喀麦隆60年间(1961年至2021年)的温度、降雨、二氧化碳排放、土地利用、劳动时间、农药使用和可可产量的时间序列数据。趋势分析揭示了气候变化对作物生产的随机响应。利用多年生作物供应响应框架,矢量误差修正模型(VECM)揭示了气候对可可生产的短期影响。计量经济学估计表明,气候和非气候参数解释了可可产量的变化。更具体地说,短期结果表明,温度、二氧化碳排放、土地利用和农药用量显著提高作物产量,而降雨则显著降低作物产量。此外,长期分析表明,温度、降雨量、二氧化碳排放和土地利用是可可产量年变化的重要负决定因素。我们建议政府进行政策改革,解决土地获取、补贴/气候融资和改进生产技术的问题,以减少温室气体排放,提高农民对气候压力源的适应能力。
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引用次数: 0
Improving stakeholder engagement in climate change risk assessments: insights from six co-production initiatives in Europe 提高利益相关者对气候变化风险评估的参与度:来自欧洲六项联合生产倡议的见解
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1120421
Karin André, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Mathilda Englund, L. Petutschnig, Emmanuel M. N. A. N. Attoh, Katharina Milde, Daniel Lückerath, Adeline Cauchy, Tara Botnen Holm, Mari Hanssen Korsbrekke, Muriel Bour, Erich Rome
It is increasingly recognized that effective climate risk assessments benefit from well-crafted processes of knowledge co-production involving key stakeholders and scientists. To support the co-production of actionable knowledge on climate change, a careful design and planning process is often called for to ensure that relevant perspectives are integrated and to promote shared understandings and joint ownership of the research process. In this article, we aim to further refine methods for co-producing climate services to support risk-informed decision-support and adaptation action. By drawing on insights and lessons learned from participatory processes in six case studies in Northern and Central Europe, we seek to better understand how associated challenges and opportunities arising in co-production processes play out in different case-specific contexts. All cases have applied a standardized framework for climate vulnerability and risk assessment, the impact chain method. The analysis builds on multiple methods including a survey among case study researchers and stakeholders, interviews with researchers, as well as a project workshop to develop collective insights and synthesize results. The results illustrate case studies' different approaches to stakeholder involvement as well as the outputs, outcomes, and impacts resulting from the risk assessments. Examples include early indications of mutual learning and improved understanding of climate risks, impacts and vulnerability, and local and regional decision contexts, as well as actual uptake in planning and decision contexts. Other outcomes concern scientific progress and contribution to methodological innovations. Overall, our study offers insights into the value of adopting good practices in knowledge co-production in impact chain-based climate risk assessments, with wider lessons for the climate services domain. While collaborations and interactions have contributed to a number of benefits some practical challenges remain for achieving effective co-production processes in the context of climate change and adaptation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a carefully designed but flexible and iterative participatory approach that enables joint learning; reassessment of stakeholder needs and capacities; and co-produced, actionable climate services with the potential to catalyze climate action.
人们越来越认识到,有效的气候风险评估得益于关键利益攸关方和科学家精心制定的知识合作过程。为了支持共同产生关于气候变化的可操作知识,通常需要仔细的设计和规划过程,以确保相关观点得到整合,并促进对研究过程的共同理解和共同所有权。在这篇文章中,我们旨在进一步完善共同生产气候服务的方法,以支持风险知情的决策支持和适应行动。通过借鉴北欧和中欧六个案例研究中参与过程的见解和经验教训,我们试图更好地了解合作生产过程中出现的相关挑战和机遇在不同的具体案例中是如何发挥作用的。所有案例都采用了气候脆弱性和风险评估的标准化框架,即影响链方法。该分析建立在多种方法的基础上,包括对案例研究人员和利益相关者的调查、对研究人员的采访,以及开发集体见解和综合结果的项目研讨会。结果说明了案例研究对利益相关者参与的不同方法,以及风险评估产生的产出、结果和影响。例子包括相互学习的早期迹象,以及对气候风险、影响和脆弱性、地方和区域决策背景的更好理解,以及对规划和决策背景的实际理解。其他成果涉及科学进步和对方法创新的贡献。总的来说,我们的研究深入了解了在基于影响链的气候风险评估中采用知识协同生产的良好做法的价值,并为气候服务领域提供了更广泛的经验教训。尽管合作和互动带来了一些好处,但在气候变化和适应的背景下,要实现有效的合作生产过程,仍然存在一些实际挑战。为了克服这些挑战,我们提出了一种精心设计但灵活迭代的参与式方法,使联合学习成为可能;重新评估利益攸关方的需求和能力;以及共同制作、可操作的气候服务,具有催化气候行动的潜力。
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引用次数: 3
Adoption of climate resilient agricultural practices among the Giriama community in South East Kenya: implications for conceptual frameworks 肯尼亚东南部Giriama社区采用适应气候变化的农业做法:对概念框架的影响
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1032780
John Safari Ziro, Edith Kichamu-Wachira, H. Ross, G. Palaniappan
While quantitative studies are robust at assessing the extent of climate change adaptation, and statistical relationships among variables involved, qualitative studies are also essential to understand the social rationales underlying relationships among variables, and to identify the roles of variables that have been overlooked or are hard to measure. This study investigates factors that influence the adoption of climate resilient agricultural practices by resource-poor Giriama farmers in southeast Kenya, with a view to understanding why some smallholders from this cultural group adopt climate resilient practices, while others do not. Data was collected through in-depth interviews with 30 farmers, 15 of whom had adopted climate resilient farming practices recommended by agricultural experts, and 15 of whom had not adopted any of those practices. The adopters were market-oriented, and tended to have individual land tenure, higher levels of experience in farming, slightly larger farm sizes, middle to high school education levels, and be younger. They had access to agricultural extension, access to farm inputs, and their off-farm activities tended to be related to agricultural supply chains. Non-adopters farmed entirely for subsistence, on communal or leased land, had less formal education, and adhered strongly to cultural beliefs and practices. Their off-farm income was unrelated to agriculture. More of the adopters were males, while many of the non-adopters were female. Particular cultural practices and taboos inhibited the adoption of several of the climate resilient practices, such as planting hybrid maize, keeping dairy goats, using improved goats such as the Kenyan Alpine for breeding purposes and the use of water conservation structures for crop production. Further, the qualitative information explains how and why factors such as land ownership, gender, culture, and access to information are interrelated, in ways that are not necessarily obvious in statistical analysis. The study thus highlights issues that need to be considered in conceptual frameworks underpinning both quantitative and qualitative studies, and particularly how they interact, in order to provide the knowledge essential to policy and programs intended to enhance smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity.
虽然定量研究在评估气候变化适应程度和所涉及变量之间的统计关系方面是强有力的,但定性研究对于理解变量之间关系的社会基础以及确定被忽视或难以衡量的变量的作用也是必不可少的。本研究调查了影响肯尼亚东南部资源贫乏的Giriama农民采用气候适应型农业做法的因素,以期了解为什么这个文化群体中的一些小农采用了气候适应型农业做法,而另一些则没有。通过对30名农民的深度访谈收集数据,其中15人采用了农业专家推荐的气候适应型耕作方法,15人没有采用任何这些方法。采用者以市场为导向,往往拥有个人土地所有权,具有较高的农业经验,农场规模略大,受过初中至高中教育,年龄较小。他们有机会获得农业推广,获得农业投入,他们的非农活动往往与农业供应链有关。非收养者完全为维持生计而在公共或租赁土地上耕作,受过较少的正规教育,并强烈坚持文化信仰和习俗。他们的非农收入与农业无关。更多的收养者是男性,而许多非收养者是女性。特定的文化习俗和禁忌阻碍了一些适应气候变化的做法的采用,例如种植杂交玉米,饲养奶山羊,使用改良山羊(如肯尼亚高山山羊)进行繁殖,以及在作物生产中使用节水结构。此外,定性信息解释了土地所有权、性别、文化和信息获取等因素如何以及为什么相互关联,而这些因素在统计分析中不一定很明显。因此,该研究强调了在定量和定性研究的概念框架中需要考虑的问题,特别是它们如何相互作用,以便为旨在提高小农适应能力的政策和计划提供必要的知识。
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引用次数: 2
Adaptive governance strategies to address wildfire and watershed resilience in New Mexico's upper Rio Grande watershed 应对新墨西哥州上里奥格兰德流域野火和流域恢复力的适应性治理战略
Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-14 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1062320
Melinda Morgan, A. Webster, M. Piccarello, Kelly W. Jones, Janie M. Chermak, Laura McCarthy, Jaishri Srinivasan
Global climate models project that New Mexico's Upper Rio Grande watershed is expected to become more arid and experience greater climatic and hydrological extremes in the next 50 years. The resulting transitions will have dramatic implications for downstream water users. The Upper Rio Grande and its tributaries provide water to about half of New Mexico's population, including the downstream communities of Albuquerque and Santa Fe, and surrounding agricultural areas. In the absence of formal climate adaptation strategies, informal governance arrangements are emerging to facilitate watershed climate adaptation strategies, including fuel treatments and stream remediation. One example is the Rio Grande Water Fund (RGWF), a collaborative effort coordinating work to protect storage, delivery, and quality of Rio Grande water through landscape-scale forest restoration treatments in tributary forested watersheds. This article examines the RGWF as one example of an emerging adaptation strategy that is working within—and beyond—existing legal and policy frameworks to accomplish more collaborative efforts across jurisdictional lines and administrative barriers. We identified ten (10) key characteristics of adaptive governance from the relevant literature and then applied them to the RGWF's experience in the watershed to date. Key findings include: (1) the RGWF's approach as a collaborative network created the right level of formality while also keeping flexibility in its design, (2) a scalar fit to the environmental challenge built social capital and investment in its work, (3) leadership from key stakeholders leveraged opportunities in the watershed to create and maintain stability, and (4) use of adaptive management and peer review processes built capacity by creating the feedback loops necessary to inform future work.
全球气候模型预测,在未来50年里,新墨西哥州的上里约热内卢格兰德流域预计将变得更加干旱,并经历更大的气候和水文极端事件。由此产生的转变将对下游用水户产生重大影响。上里约热内卢格兰德河及其支流为新墨西哥州大约一半的人口提供水,包括下游的阿尔伯克基和圣达菲社区,以及周围的农业区。在缺乏正式气候适应战略的情况下,正在出现非正式治理安排,以促进流域气候适应战略,包括燃料处理和河流修复。其中一个例子是里约热内卢Grande Water Fund (RGWF),这是一项协调工作,通过在支流森林流域进行景观尺度的森林恢复处理,保护里约热内卢Grande Water的储存、输送和质量。本文将RGWF作为新兴适应战略的一个例子进行研究,该战略在现有法律和政策框架内外开展工作,以实现跨越司法界限和行政障碍的更多合作。我们从相关文献中确定了适应性治理的十(10)个关键特征,然后将它们应用到RGWF迄今在流域的经验中。主要发现包括:(1) RGWF作为一个协作网络的方法创造了适当的正式程度,同时在设计上保持了灵活性;(2)适应环境挑战的标量为其工作建立了社会资本和投资;(3)关键利益相关者的领导利用流域的机会来创造和维持稳定;(4)使用适应性管理和同行评审流程,通过创建反馈循环来建立能力,为未来的工作提供必要的信息。
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引用次数: 1
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Frontiers in Climate
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