Pub Date : 2023-10-06DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1197027
Cathie A. Wells, Elena Saggioro, Celia Petty, Rosalind Cornforth
With climate impacts increasing in both frequency and intensity and unprecedented climate events having devastating results, the need for timely policy and action to support adaption is not in doubt. However, the gap between policy and action leaves many communities exposed to extreme events and vulnerable to loss of life and livelihoods. This is partly due to the difficulty policymakers face when confronted by climate projections with their inherent uncertainties. Competing sectoral interests and a lack of resources often compound such challenges. To address these issues, the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process (ICECCAP) encases the climate risk assessment in an enabling framework to track resource, knowledge and regulatory needs. This process was applied as part of a UNEP project to support the National Adaptation Plan in Pakistan. A range of climate storylines, describing plausible climate futures and their potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, were developed and discussed with local stakeholders, including policy makers from across levels of governance. The process allowed us to translate complex physical science into narratives that could be communicated clearly to non-technical national stakeholders, forming a basis for subsequent negotiation and decision-making at a local level to address multiple risks and respond to adaptation needs at this finer resolution. This reflects our aim, as part of the My Climate Risk network, to amalgamate bottom-up climate risk assessment with climate projection data that remains meaningful at a local scale. We show how the integration of scientific research and local expert stakeholder views can promote buy-in to adaptation planning. Grounded in a systemic and comprehensive understanding of potential impacts of climate change, this process has implications across socio-economic, environmental and governance spheres.
{"title":"Using the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process to bridge the gap between policy and action","authors":"Cathie A. Wells, Elena Saggioro, Celia Petty, Rosalind Cornforth","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1197027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1197027","url":null,"abstract":"With climate impacts increasing in both frequency and intensity and unprecedented climate events having devastating results, the need for timely policy and action to support adaption is not in doubt. However, the gap between policy and action leaves many communities exposed to extreme events and vulnerable to loss of life and livelihoods. This is partly due to the difficulty policymakers face when confronted by climate projections with their inherent uncertainties. Competing sectoral interests and a lack of resources often compound such challenges. To address these issues, the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process (ICECCAP) encases the climate risk assessment in an enabling framework to track resource, knowledge and regulatory needs. This process was applied as part of a UNEP project to support the National Adaptation Plan in Pakistan. A range of climate storylines, describing plausible climate futures and their potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, were developed and discussed with local stakeholders, including policy makers from across levels of governance. The process allowed us to translate complex physical science into narratives that could be communicated clearly to non-technical national stakeholders, forming a basis for subsequent negotiation and decision-making at a local level to address multiple risks and respond to adaptation needs at this finer resolution. This reflects our aim, as part of the My Climate Risk network, to amalgamate bottom-up climate risk assessment with climate projection data that remains meaningful at a local scale. We show how the integration of scientific research and local expert stakeholder views can promote buy-in to adaptation planning. Grounded in a systemic and comprehensive understanding of potential impacts of climate change, this process has implications across socio-economic, environmental and governance spheres.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"299 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135352385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-03DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1233536
Joël Arnault, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Tanja Portele, Lu Li, Thomas Rummler, Benjamin Fersch, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Titike Kassa Bahaga, Zhenyu Zhang, Eric Mensah Mortey, Ifeany Chukwudi Achugbu, Hassane Moutahir, Souleymane Sy, Jianhui Wei, Patrick Laux, Stefan Sobolowski, Harald Kunstmann
Afforestation as a climate change mitigation option has been the subject of intense debate and study over the last few decades, particularly in the tropics where agricultural activity is expanding. However, the impact of such landcover changes on the surface energy budget, temperature, and precipitation remains unclear as feedbacks between various components are difficult to resolve and interpret. Contributing to this scientific debate, regional climate models of varying complexity can be used to test how regional climate reacts to afforestation. In this study, the focus is on the gauged Nzoia basin (12,700 km 2 ) located in a heavily farmed region of tropical Africa. A reanalysis product is dynamically downscaled with a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF-Hydro) to finely resolve the land-atmosphere system in the Nzoia region. To overcome the problem of Nzoia river flooding over its banks we enhance WRF-Hydro with an overbank flow routing option, which improves the representation of daily discharge based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Kling-Gupta efficiency (from −2.69 to 0.30, and −0.36 to 0.63, respectively). Changing grassland and cropland areas to savannas, woody savannas, and evergreen broadleaf forest in three synthetic numerical experiments allows the assessment of potential regional climate impacts of three afforestation strategies. In all three cases, the afforestation-induced decrease in soil evaporation is larger than the afforestation-induced increase in plant transpiration, thus increasing sensible heat flux and triggering a localized negative feedback process leading to more precipitation and more runoff. This effect is more pronounced with the woody savannas experiment, with 7% less evapotranspiration, but 13% more precipitation, 8% more surface runoff, and 12% more underground runoff predicted in the Nzoia basin. This study demonstrates a potentially large impact of afforestation on regional water resources, which should be investigated in more detail for policy making purposes.
{"title":"Regional water cycle sensitivity to afforestation: synthetic numerical experiments for tropical Africa","authors":"Joël Arnault, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Tanja Portele, Lu Li, Thomas Rummler, Benjamin Fersch, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Titike Kassa Bahaga, Zhenyu Zhang, Eric Mensah Mortey, Ifeany Chukwudi Achugbu, Hassane Moutahir, Souleymane Sy, Jianhui Wei, Patrick Laux, Stefan Sobolowski, Harald Kunstmann","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1233536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1233536","url":null,"abstract":"Afforestation as a climate change mitigation option has been the subject of intense debate and study over the last few decades, particularly in the tropics where agricultural activity is expanding. However, the impact of such landcover changes on the surface energy budget, temperature, and precipitation remains unclear as feedbacks between various components are difficult to resolve and interpret. Contributing to this scientific debate, regional climate models of varying complexity can be used to test how regional climate reacts to afforestation. In this study, the focus is on the gauged Nzoia basin (12,700 km 2 ) located in a heavily farmed region of tropical Africa. A reanalysis product is dynamically downscaled with a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF-Hydro) to finely resolve the land-atmosphere system in the Nzoia region. To overcome the problem of Nzoia river flooding over its banks we enhance WRF-Hydro with an overbank flow routing option, which improves the representation of daily discharge based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Kling-Gupta efficiency (from −2.69 to 0.30, and −0.36 to 0.63, respectively). Changing grassland and cropland areas to savannas, woody savannas, and evergreen broadleaf forest in three synthetic numerical experiments allows the assessment of potential regional climate impacts of three afforestation strategies. In all three cases, the afforestation-induced decrease in soil evaporation is larger than the afforestation-induced increase in plant transpiration, thus increasing sensible heat flux and triggering a localized negative feedback process leading to more precipitation and more runoff. This effect is more pronounced with the woody savannas experiment, with 7% less evapotranspiration, but 13% more precipitation, 8% more surface runoff, and 12% more underground runoff predicted in the Nzoia basin. This study demonstrates a potentially large impact of afforestation on regional water resources, which should be investigated in more detail for policy making purposes.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135738504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-29DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1286588
Fred Mason, Gerald Stokes, Susan Fancy, Volker Sick
Carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) is a collection of approaches needed to supplement other efforts to achieve net zero carbon emissions. The specific combination of CO 2 sources and sinks (a “usage pathway”) determines the environmental impact, economic viability, overall role in climate change mitigation and continued availability of carbon-based products. Optimal deployment requires a clear understanding of the nature of carbon sources and the durability and economic value of downstream processes and materials. Rigorous life cycle and techno-economic assessments (LCA and TEA) are critical. This paper presents a CO 2 sources and sinks matrix as the high-level basis for assessing a usage pathway's climate relevance and economics.
{"title":"Implications of the downstream handling of captured CO2","authors":"Fred Mason, Gerald Stokes, Susan Fancy, Volker Sick","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1286588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1286588","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) is a collection of approaches needed to supplement other efforts to achieve net zero carbon emissions. The specific combination of CO 2 sources and sinks (a “usage pathway”) determines the environmental impact, economic viability, overall role in climate change mitigation and continued availability of carbon-based products. Optimal deployment requires a clear understanding of the nature of carbon sources and the durability and economic value of downstream processes and materials. Rigorous life cycle and techno-economic assessments (LCA and TEA) are critical. This paper presents a CO 2 sources and sinks matrix as the high-level basis for assessing a usage pathway's climate relevance and economics.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"2015 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135247657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-28DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1235886
Francesca Peroni, Daniele Codato, Luca Buscemi, Marco Cibrario, Salvatore Eugenio Pappalardo, Massimo De Marchi
Nature-based solutions (NBSs) are considered essential measures to face climate change in cities. Riparian ecosystems are often undervalued as NBSs even if they represent an “already plugged-in” ecosystem service provider. However, applied research on urban riparian ecosystems is scarce. To fill the gap, this study frames the role of these ecosystems as a frontline mitigation and adaptation strategy by (i) investigating how urban riparian ecosystems experienced a process of urbanization from World War II until today in Padua (Italy), (ii) estimating how effective was carbon sequestration, and (iii) assessing how an afforestation process might contribute to mitigation scenarios. Land use/land cover changes are first mapped with high-resolution aerial images and, by using InVEST models, carbon sequestration is estimated. Results highlight that impervious surfaces notably increased along these ecosystems; hence, carbon sequestration was negative (−928 Mg/C). The future scenario (2022–2050) indicates an increase of carbon stocks (+4,329.95 Mg/C), giving a contribution toward city carbon neutrality. Results suggest that, in the recent past, the urban management and policies did not provide clear and well-defined planning of these areas. On the contrary, at present, urban riparian ecosystems might represent already existing multi-functional NBSs to be restored and enhanced within cities for climate-resilient planning and for increasing the life quality of city dwellers. Finally, our methodology provides a replicable spatial database for supporting urban planning policies.
{"title":"Rethinking urban riparian ecosystems as a frontline strategy to counter climate change: mapping 60 years of carbon sequestration evolution in Padua, Italy","authors":"Francesca Peroni, Daniele Codato, Luca Buscemi, Marco Cibrario, Salvatore Eugenio Pappalardo, Massimo De Marchi","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1235886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1235886","url":null,"abstract":"Nature-based solutions (NBSs) are considered essential measures to face climate change in cities. Riparian ecosystems are often undervalued as NBSs even if they represent an “already plugged-in” ecosystem service provider. However, applied research on urban riparian ecosystems is scarce. To fill the gap, this study frames the role of these ecosystems as a frontline mitigation and adaptation strategy by (i) investigating how urban riparian ecosystems experienced a process of urbanization from World War II until today in Padua (Italy), (ii) estimating how effective was carbon sequestration, and (iii) assessing how an afforestation process might contribute to mitigation scenarios. Land use/land cover changes are first mapped with high-resolution aerial images and, by using InVEST models, carbon sequestration is estimated. Results highlight that impervious surfaces notably increased along these ecosystems; hence, carbon sequestration was negative (−928 Mg/C). The future scenario (2022–2050) indicates an increase of carbon stocks (+4,329.95 Mg/C), giving a contribution toward city carbon neutrality. Results suggest that, in the recent past, the urban management and policies did not provide clear and well-defined planning of these areas. On the contrary, at present, urban riparian ecosystems might represent already existing multi-functional NBSs to be restored and enhanced within cities for climate-resilient planning and for increasing the life quality of city dwellers. Finally, our methodology provides a replicable spatial database for supporting urban planning policies.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135425360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-22DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1207668
Graham D. M. Andrews
Carbon mineralization and storage in basaltic rock sequences is a developing technology but faces challenges with uptake and increases in scale. Northern Ireland (UK) is a useful analog for many parts of the world where thick basalt sequences could be used to aid in reaching carbon reduction and removal targets. Here I reanalyze and reinterpret available lithological, geochemical, and geophysical data to assess carbon storage potential. The physical and geochemical properties of the basalts are indistinguishable from those used for successful carbon sequestration in Iceland and Washington State (USA). Based on the thickness, composition, and potential permeability, I propose that this is a viable location for a series of small-volume stores (total volume ~9–12 MT CO 2 ) suitable for capture at industrial point-sources or purpose-built CO 2 “harvesting” facilities. The case for exploiting the CO 2 storage potential in Northern Ireland is strengthened by (1) an increasingly urgent need to find socially and economically just decarbonization pathways needed to meet NI's targets, (2) increasing realization among policy experts that point-source CO 2 capture and industrial decarbonization will be insufficient to meet those goals, due in part, to the size of the agricultural sector, and (3) the coincidence with plentiful renewable energy and geothermally-sourced industrial heat. These serendipitous relationships could be leveraged to develop CO 2 -“farms” where direct air capture operations are supplied by renewable energy (biomass and geothermal) and on-site geological storage. I envisage that these sites could be supplemented by CO 2 from locally produced biomass as farmers are encouraged to transition away from raising livestock. Because CO 2 can be captured directly from the atmosphere or via suitable biomass anywhere, NI's small size and position on the periphery of the UK and Europe need not be a disadvantage. Instead, NI's access to geological storage, renewable energy, and agricultural land may be a boon, and provide new opportunities to become a leader in carbon removal in basalt-covered regions.
玄武岩层序碳矿化与封存技术是一项发展中的技术，但随着吸收和规模的扩大，面临着挑战。北爱尔兰(英国)是世界上许多地方的一个有用的类比，在那里厚的玄武岩序列可以用来帮助实现碳减排和去除目标。在这里，我重新分析和解释现有的岩性、地球化学和地球物理数据，以评估碳储存潜力。玄武岩的物理和地球化学性质与冰岛和华盛顿州(美国)用于成功固碳的玄武岩没有区别。根据厚度、成分和潜在渗透性，我认为这是一个可行的位置，适合在工业点源或专门建造的二氧化碳“收集”设施中捕获一系列小容量存储(总容积约9-12 MT CO 2)。开发北爱尔兰二氧化碳储存潜力的理由得到了以下方面的加强:(1)越来越迫切地需要找到实现NI目标所需的社会和经济上公正的脱碳途径;(2)政策专家越来越认识到，由于农业部门的规模，点源二氧化碳捕获和工业脱碳不足以实现这些目标;(3)与丰富的可再生能源和地热工业热的巧合。这些偶然的关系可以用来开发二氧化碳“农场”，在那里，直接的空气捕获操作由可再生能源(生物质能和地热)和现场地质储存提供。我设想，随着农民被鼓励从饲养牲畜过渡到畜牧业，这些地方可以由当地生产的生物质产生的二氧化碳来补充。因为二氧化碳可以直接从大气中捕获，也可以通过合适的生物质在任何地方捕获，NI的小尺寸和在英国和欧洲外围的位置不一定是一个劣势。相反，NI对地质储存、可再生能源和农业用地的利用可能是一个福音，并为成为玄武岩覆盖地区碳去除的领导者提供了新的机会。
{"title":"Geological carbon storage in northern Irish basalts: prospectivity and potential","authors":"Graham D. M. Andrews","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1207668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1207668","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon mineralization and storage in basaltic rock sequences is a developing technology but faces challenges with uptake and increases in scale. Northern Ireland (UK) is a useful analog for many parts of the world where thick basalt sequences could be used to aid in reaching carbon reduction and removal targets. Here I reanalyze and reinterpret available lithological, geochemical, and geophysical data to assess carbon storage potential. The physical and geochemical properties of the basalts are indistinguishable from those used for successful carbon sequestration in Iceland and Washington State (USA). Based on the thickness, composition, and potential permeability, I propose that this is a viable location for a series of small-volume stores (total volume ~9–12 MT CO 2 ) suitable for capture at industrial point-sources or purpose-built CO 2 “harvesting” facilities. The case for exploiting the CO 2 storage potential in Northern Ireland is strengthened by (1) an increasingly urgent need to find socially and economically just decarbonization pathways needed to meet NI's targets, (2) increasing realization among policy experts that point-source CO 2 capture and industrial decarbonization will be insufficient to meet those goals, due in part, to the size of the agricultural sector, and (3) the coincidence with plentiful renewable energy and geothermally-sourced industrial heat. These serendipitous relationships could be leveraged to develop CO 2 -“farms” where direct air capture operations are supplied by renewable energy (biomass and geothermal) and on-site geological storage. I envisage that these sites could be supplemented by CO 2 from locally produced biomass as farmers are encouraged to transition away from raising livestock. Because CO 2 can be captured directly from the atmosphere or via suitable biomass anywhere, NI's small size and position on the periphery of the UK and Europe need not be a disadvantage. Instead, NI's access to geological storage, renewable energy, and agricultural land may be a boon, and provide new opportunities to become a leader in carbon removal in basalt-covered regions.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136060514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-22DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1237144
Lelisa Hordofa, Tamiru Yazew
Introduction The objective of this research was to assess the trends and variability in the BakoTibe district as well as raise awareness among rural farmers. Methods The sample of homes included 141 out of 29 participants, all from families headed by a female. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen-slope estimator were used to assess the trend of annual minimum and maximum temperatures and seasonal precipitation for the study areas. Results and discussion The year, summer, and spring climate variability results were examined, and the CV of spring precipitation was found to be 34.8%, indicating high variability of rainfall. Spring precipitation was more unstable than summer precipitation. Statistically, total annual precipitation, the summer season, and the autumn season all showed positive or no significant trends, while spring and winter precipitation both showed a negative or decreasing trend. The probability of 7, 10, 15, and 20-day dry spells in June, July, August, and September during the main rainy season (summer) was zero. The chance of a 20-day dry spell occurrence was highest from March 1 (61 days) to April 23 (115 days), lowest from April 23 (130 days) to June, July, August, and September 20 (265 days), and highest after the end of September. The dry period lasted 15 days, beginning on March 1 (61 days), ending on May 8 (130 days), and returning to zero from May 8 (130 days) to June, July, August, and September 5 (250 days). The probability of a 10-day dry spell began in March (61) and ended on May 23 (145), with the 7-day dry spell ending on June 23 (160). In this study, annual precipitation and temperature values from 2010 to 2019 were examined. Precipitation and temperature have a positive and significant relationship with corn and teff. Approximately 65.2% of the population reported late precipitation, while 34.8% reported no late precipitation. A premature end to the rains affected the livelihoods of ~73% of those polled. Crop diversification, terracing, tree planting, irrigation cultivation for precocious crops, and non-agricultural activities have all been used to adapt to the effects of climate variability and change.
{"title":"Evaluating impacts of climate variability on smallholder livelihoods and adaptation practices in the western Shewa Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia","authors":"Lelisa Hordofa, Tamiru Yazew","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1237144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1237144","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction The objective of this research was to assess the trends and variability in the BakoTibe district as well as raise awareness among rural farmers. Methods The sample of homes included 141 out of 29 participants, all from families headed by a female. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen-slope estimator were used to assess the trend of annual minimum and maximum temperatures and seasonal precipitation for the study areas. Results and discussion The year, summer, and spring climate variability results were examined, and the CV of spring precipitation was found to be 34.8%, indicating high variability of rainfall. Spring precipitation was more unstable than summer precipitation. Statistically, total annual precipitation, the summer season, and the autumn season all showed positive or no significant trends, while spring and winter precipitation both showed a negative or decreasing trend. The probability of 7, 10, 15, and 20-day dry spells in June, July, August, and September during the main rainy season (summer) was zero. The chance of a 20-day dry spell occurrence was highest from March 1 (61 days) to April 23 (115 days), lowest from April 23 (130 days) to June, July, August, and September 20 (265 days), and highest after the end of September. The dry period lasted 15 days, beginning on March 1 (61 days), ending on May 8 (130 days), and returning to zero from May 8 (130 days) to June, July, August, and September 5 (250 days). The probability of a 10-day dry spell began in March (61) and ended on May 23 (145), with the 7-day dry spell ending on June 23 (160). In this study, annual precipitation and temperature values from 2010 to 2019 were examined. Precipitation and temperature have a positive and significant relationship with corn and teff. Approximately 65.2% of the population reported late precipitation, while 34.8% reported no late precipitation. A premature end to the rains affected the livelihoods of ~73% of those polled. Crop diversification, terracing, tree planting, irrigation cultivation for precocious crops, and non-agricultural activities have all been used to adapt to the effects of climate variability and change.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136060666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-22DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1159860
Johan Daniel Andersson
Due to the long timescales and deep uncertainties involved, comprehensive model-building has played a pivotal role in creating shared expectations about future trajectories for addressing climate change processes, mobilizing a network of knowledge-based experts who assist in defining common problems, identifying policy solutions, and assessing the policy outcomes. At the intersection between climate change science and climate governance, where wholly empirical methods are infeasible, numerical simulations have become the central practice for evaluating truth claims, and the key medium for the transport and translation of data, methods, and guiding principles among the actors involved. What makes integrated assessment unique as a comprehensive modeling-effort is that it is explicitly policy-oriented, justified by its policy-relevance. Although recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as invaluable to their review assessments, the role of integrated modeling in implementations of the Paris Agreement, such as in impact assessments of climate legislation on the national level, is far less known. Taking as its starting-point the boundary-work carried out in public administration, this paper examines how foresight knowledge produced with the help of model-based scenario analysis has been made relevant in Swedish climate policymaking, focusing on the processes by which key indicators for political action become institutionalized through the choice and use of model parameters. It concludes by arguing for an expanded understanding of policy-relevance, beyond institutional approaches and toward a process-based point of view, treating relevance as something in-the-making.
{"title":"Ecologies of integrated modeling: configuring policy-relevance in Swedish climate governance","authors":"Johan Daniel Andersson","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1159860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1159860","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the long timescales and deep uncertainties involved, comprehensive model-building has played a pivotal role in creating shared expectations about future trajectories for addressing climate change processes, mobilizing a network of knowledge-based experts who assist in defining common problems, identifying policy solutions, and assessing the policy outcomes. At the intersection between climate change science and climate governance, where wholly empirical methods are infeasible, numerical simulations have become the central practice for evaluating truth claims, and the key medium for the transport and translation of data, methods, and guiding principles among the actors involved. What makes integrated assessment unique as a comprehensive modeling-effort is that it is explicitly policy-oriented, justified by its policy-relevance. Although recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as invaluable to their review assessments, the role of integrated modeling in implementations of the Paris Agreement, such as in impact assessments of climate legislation on the national level, is far less known. Taking as its starting-point the boundary-work carried out in public administration, this paper examines how foresight knowledge produced with the help of model-based scenario analysis has been made relevant in Swedish climate policymaking, focusing on the processes by which key indicators for political action become institutionalized through the choice and use of model parameters. It concludes by arguing for an expanded understanding of policy-relevance, beyond institutional approaches and toward a process-based point of view, treating relevance as something in-the-making.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136059337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-18DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1279109
Phil Renforth, Rob Bellamy, David Beerling, Miranda Boettcher, Davide Bonalumi, Miguel Brandão, Mathias Fridahl, Sabine Fuss, Anders Hansson, Clare Heyward, Ben Kolosz, Patrick Lamers, Duncan McLaren, Raffaella Pomi, Daniel L. Sanchez, Soheil Shayegh, Volker Sick, Mijndert Van der Spek, Vikram Vishal, Jennifer Wilcox
SPECIALTY GRAND CHALLENGE article Front. Clim., 18 September 2023Sec. Carbon Dioxide Removal Volume 5 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1279109
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Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1214703
Robel Takele, Roberto Buizza, Matteo Dell'Acqua
Climate change has been inducing variations in the statistics of both the large-scale weather patterns and the local weather in many regions of the world, and these variations have been affecting several human activities, including agriculture. In this study, we look at the links between large-scale weather patterns and local weather as well as agriculture, with a specific regional focus on Mozambique between 1981 and 2019. First, we investigated linear trends and links between large-scale weather patterns and local weather in the region using the ERA5 dataset. We used the same data to investigate how climate change has been affecting the statistics of large-scale weather patterns. Then, we derived Mozambique country-level cereal yield data from FAO and linked it up with climate and weather data to assess what is the relationship between large-scale patterns and local agronomic outputs using a multiple linear regression (MLR) model with crop yield as the response variable and climate drivers as predictors. The results indicate that in Mozambique, the crop season warmed substantially and consistently with climate change-induced global warming, and the rainy season had become drier and shorter, with precipitation concentrated in fewer, more intense events. These changes in the local weather have been linked to variations in the statistics of large-scale weather patterns that characterize the (large-scale) atmospheric flow over the region. Our results indicate a negative impact on yield associated with climate change, with average yield losses of 20% for rice and 8% for maize over the analyzed period (1981–2019). This negative impact suggests that, at the country scale, further future warming during the growing season may offset some of the cereal yield gains from technological advances.
{"title":"Atmospheric drivers affect crop yields in Mozambique","authors":"Robel Takele, Roberto Buizza, Matteo Dell'Acqua","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1214703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1214703","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has been inducing variations in the statistics of both the large-scale weather patterns and the local weather in many regions of the world, and these variations have been affecting several human activities, including agriculture. In this study, we look at the links between large-scale weather patterns and local weather as well as agriculture, with a specific regional focus on Mozambique between 1981 and 2019. First, we investigated linear trends and links between large-scale weather patterns and local weather in the region using the ERA5 dataset. We used the same data to investigate how climate change has been affecting the statistics of large-scale weather patterns. Then, we derived Mozambique country-level cereal yield data from FAO and linked it up with climate and weather data to assess what is the relationship between large-scale patterns and local agronomic outputs using a multiple linear regression (MLR) model with crop yield as the response variable and climate drivers as predictors. The results indicate that in Mozambique, the crop season warmed substantially and consistently with climate change-induced global warming, and the rainy season had become drier and shorter, with precipitation concentrated in fewer, more intense events. These changes in the local weather have been linked to variations in the statistics of large-scale weather patterns that characterize the (large-scale) atmospheric flow over the region. Our results indicate a negative impact on yield associated with climate change, with average yield losses of 20% for rice and 8% for maize over the analyzed period (1981–2019). This negative impact suggests that, at the country scale, further future warming during the growing season may offset some of the cereal yield gains from technological advances.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134912309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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