Pub Date : 2023-09-04DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1158386
R. Denny, A. P. Fischer
Whether and under what conditions people are compelled to adapt to climate change is a question of significant policy and scholarly importance. However, little is known about the influence of the characteristics of the climate change events with which people have experience on people's decisions to modify their behavior to reduce risk.We used structural equation models to quantitatively analyze survey data that we collected from small woodland owners in areas affected by three types of severe events known to be exacerbated by climate change: droughts, storms, and tree insect and disease outbreaks.We found that events with faster onset and termination speeds and greater visibility were associated with people's self-reported experiences of these events and decisions to undertake various practices out of concern about them, likely because events with these characteristics are easier to observe, although there are exceptions.These findings improve scientific understanding of the climate change conditions that compel people to perceive risk and act.
{"title":"The effects of climate change event characteristics on experiences and response behaviors: a study of small woodland owners in the Upper Midwest, USA","authors":"R. Denny, A. P. Fischer","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1158386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1158386","url":null,"abstract":"Whether and under what conditions people are compelled to adapt to climate change is a question of significant policy and scholarly importance. However, little is known about the influence of the characteristics of the climate change events with which people have experience on people's decisions to modify their behavior to reduce risk.We used structural equation models to quantitatively analyze survey data that we collected from small woodland owners in areas affected by three types of severe events known to be exacerbated by climate change: droughts, storms, and tree insect and disease outbreaks.We found that events with faster onset and termination speeds and greater visibility were associated with people's self-reported experiences of these events and decisions to undertake various practices out of concern about them, likely because events with these characteristics are easier to observe, although there are exceptions.These findings improve scientific understanding of the climate change conditions that compel people to perceive risk and act.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47728778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1227613
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, L. Gaslikova
The simultaneous occurrence of increased river discharge and high coastal water levels may cause compound flooding. Compound flood events can potentially cause greater damage than the separate occurrence of the underlying extreme events, making them essential for risk assessment. Even though a general increase in the frequency and/or severity of compound flood events is assumed due to climate change, there have been very few studies conducted for larger regions of Europe.Our work, therefore, focuses on the high-resolution analysis of changes in extreme events of coastal water levels, river discharge, and their concurrent appearance at the end of this century in northern and central Europe (2070–2099). For this, we analyze downscaled data sets from two global climate models (GCMs) for the two emissions scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. First, we compare the historical runs of the downscaled GCMs to historical reconstruction data to investigate if they deliver comparable results for northern and central Europe. Then we study changes in the intensity of extreme events, their number, and the duration of extreme event seasons under climate change.Our analysis shows increases in compound flood events over the whole European domain, mostly due to the rising mean sea level. In some areas, the number of compound flood event days increases by a factor of eight at the end of the current century. This increase is concomitant with an increase in the annual compound flood event season duration.Furthermore, the sea level rise associated with a global warming of 2K will result in double the amounts of compound flood event days for nearly every European river estuary considered.
{"title":"Changes in compound flood event frequency in northern and central Europe under climate change","authors":"Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, L. Gaslikova","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1227613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1227613","url":null,"abstract":"The simultaneous occurrence of increased river discharge and high coastal water levels may cause compound flooding. Compound flood events can potentially cause greater damage than the separate occurrence of the underlying extreme events, making them essential for risk assessment. Even though a general increase in the frequency and/or severity of compound flood events is assumed due to climate change, there have been very few studies conducted for larger regions of Europe.Our work, therefore, focuses on the high-resolution analysis of changes in extreme events of coastal water levels, river discharge, and their concurrent appearance at the end of this century in northern and central Europe (2070–2099). For this, we analyze downscaled data sets from two global climate models (GCMs) for the two emissions scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. First, we compare the historical runs of the downscaled GCMs to historical reconstruction data to investigate if they deliver comparable results for northern and central Europe. Then we study changes in the intensity of extreme events, their number, and the duration of extreme event seasons under climate change.Our analysis shows increases in compound flood events over the whole European domain, mostly due to the rising mean sea level. In some areas, the number of compound flood event days increases by a factor of eight at the end of the current century. This increase is concomitant with an increase in the annual compound flood event season duration.Furthermore, the sea level rise associated with a global warming of 2K will result in double the amounts of compound flood event days for nearly every European river estuary considered.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46004988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1192706
Joao Paulo Braga, Ekkehard C. Ernst
The transition to a green economy requires significant resources, both from private investors and public policy makers with important implications for employment and living standards. This paper argues that green macro-economic policies are essential in accelerating the transition through three channels: they can strengthen the price signals from externality pricing; they can mobilize additional public and hybrid funding for green transition projects; and they can soften the social and labor market impact of the transition for those workers currently still employed in polluting industries. The paper provides an overview of the main fiscal, monetary and financial market policies that can help provide the necessary fund for a successful transition. It highlights different trade-offs regarding instrument choice and policy outcomes, notably regarding the need to achieve a transition that is both ecological and socially sustainable. We provide an overview of current policy choices and document their economic, social and ecological outcomes. In particular, we demonstrate that the proper use of price regulation and financial instruments—carbon taxes, cap-and-trade schemes, green bonds, nature-based capital—can mobilize additional resources that can be usefully invested to ensure a socially just transition.
{"title":"Financing the green transition. The role of macro-economic policies in ensuring a just transition","authors":"Joao Paulo Braga, Ekkehard C. Ernst","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1192706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1192706","url":null,"abstract":"The transition to a green economy requires significant resources, both from private investors and public policy makers with important implications for employment and living standards. This paper argues that green macro-economic policies are essential in accelerating the transition through three channels: they can strengthen the price signals from externality pricing; they can mobilize additional public and hybrid funding for green transition projects; and they can soften the social and labor market impact of the transition for those workers currently still employed in polluting industries. The paper provides an overview of the main fiscal, monetary and financial market policies that can help provide the necessary fund for a successful transition. It highlights different trade-offs regarding instrument choice and policy outcomes, notably regarding the need to achieve a transition that is both ecological and socially sustainable. We provide an overview of current policy choices and document their economic, social and ecological outcomes. In particular, we demonstrate that the proper use of price regulation and financial instruments—carbon taxes, cap-and-trade schemes, green bonds, nature-based capital—can mobilize additional resources that can be usefully invested to ensure a socially just transition.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47595692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-29DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1212649
Robert M. Beyer, J. Schewe, G. Abel
Understanding and forecasting human mobility in response to climatic and environmental changes has become a subject of substantial political, societal, and academic interest. Quantitative models exploring the relationship between climatic factors and migration patterns have been developed since the early 2000s; however, different models have produced results that are not always consistent with one another or robust enough to provide actionable insights into future dynamics. Here we examine weaknesses of classical methods and identify next-generation approaches with the potential to close existing knowledge gaps. We propose six priorities for the future of climate mobility modeling: (i) the use of non-linear machine-learning rather than linear methods, (ii) the prioritization of explaining the observed data rather than testing statistical significance of predictors, (iii) the consideration of relevant climate impacts rather than temperature- and precipitation-based metrics, (iv) the examination of heterogeneities, including across space and demographic groups rather than aggregated measures, (v) the investigation of temporal migration dynamics rather than essentially spatial patterns, (vi) the use of better calibration data, including disaggregated and within-country flows. Improving both methods and data to accommodate the high complexity and context-specificity of climate mobility will be crucial for establishing the scientific consensus on historical trends and future projections that has eluded the discipline thus far.
{"title":"Modeling climate migration: dead ends and new avenues","authors":"Robert M. Beyer, J. Schewe, G. Abel","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1212649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1212649","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding and forecasting human mobility in response to climatic and environmental changes has become a subject of substantial political, societal, and academic interest. Quantitative models exploring the relationship between climatic factors and migration patterns have been developed since the early 2000s; however, different models have produced results that are not always consistent with one another or robust enough to provide actionable insights into future dynamics. Here we examine weaknesses of classical methods and identify next-generation approaches with the potential to close existing knowledge gaps. We propose six priorities for the future of climate mobility modeling: (i) the use of non-linear machine-learning rather than linear methods, (ii) the prioritization of explaining the observed data rather than testing statistical significance of predictors, (iii) the consideration of relevant climate impacts rather than temperature- and precipitation-based metrics, (iv) the examination of heterogeneities, including across space and demographic groups rather than aggregated measures, (v) the investigation of temporal migration dynamics rather than essentially spatial patterns, (vi) the use of better calibration data, including disaggregated and within-country flows. Improving both methods and data to accommodate the high complexity and context-specificity of climate mobility will be crucial for establishing the scientific consensus on historical trends and future projections that has eluded the discipline thus far.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43730553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-23DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1135450
Teresa A. Myers, C. Roser-Renouf, E. Maibach
As emotions are strong predictors of climate policy support, we examined multiple discrete emotions that people experience in reaction to various types of information about climate change: its causes, the scientific consensus, its impacts, and solutions. Specifically, we assessed the relationships between four types of messages and five discrete emotions (guilt, anger, hope, fear, and sadness), testing whether these emotions mediate the impacts of information on support for climate policy.An online experiment exposed participants (N = 3,023) to one of four informational messages, assessing participants' emotional reactions to the message and their support for climate change mitigation policies as compared to a no-message control group.Each message, except the consensus message, enhanced the feeling of one or more emotions, and all of the emotions, except guilt, were positively associated with policy support. Two of the messages had positive indirect effects on policy support: the impacts message increased sadness, which in turn increased policy support, and the solutions message increased hope, which increased policy support. However, the solutions message also reduced every emotion except hope, while the impacts, causes, and consensus messages each suppressed hope.These findings indicate that climate information influences multiple emotions simultaneously and that the aroused emotions may conflict with one another in terms of fostering support for climate change mitigation policies. To avoid simultaneously arousing a positive motivator while depressing another, message designers should focus on developing content that engages audiences across multiple emotional fronts.
{"title":"Emotional responses to climate change information and their effects on policy support","authors":"Teresa A. Myers, C. Roser-Renouf, E. Maibach","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1135450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1135450","url":null,"abstract":"As emotions are strong predictors of climate policy support, we examined multiple discrete emotions that people experience in reaction to various types of information about climate change: its causes, the scientific consensus, its impacts, and solutions. Specifically, we assessed the relationships between four types of messages and five discrete emotions (guilt, anger, hope, fear, and sadness), testing whether these emotions mediate the impacts of information on support for climate policy.An online experiment exposed participants (N = 3,023) to one of four informational messages, assessing participants' emotional reactions to the message and their support for climate change mitigation policies as compared to a no-message control group.Each message, except the consensus message, enhanced the feeling of one or more emotions, and all of the emotions, except guilt, were positively associated with policy support. Two of the messages had positive indirect effects on policy support: the impacts message increased sadness, which in turn increased policy support, and the solutions message increased hope, which increased policy support. However, the solutions message also reduced every emotion except hope, while the impacts, causes, and consensus messages each suppressed hope.These findings indicate that climate information influences multiple emotions simultaneously and that the aroused emotions may conflict with one another in terms of fostering support for climate change mitigation policies. To avoid simultaneously arousing a positive motivator while depressing another, message designers should focus on developing content that engages audiences across multiple emotional fronts.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45399734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-23DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1259337
Sadegh Eghdami, V. Michel, M. Shafiee-Jood, G. Louis
Due to its inherent multidimensionality and complexities, successful climate adaptation policymaking requires a concerted effort among multiple governance levels. Discovering the challenges and governance gaps can provide insights for policymakers paving the way for more effective policies in the future. This paper intends to provide such analysis for Coastal Virginia, a strategic region in the United States receiving significant climate impacts, particularly sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding. Utilizing semi-structured interviews with the main stakeholders and building on the adaptation framework of Moser and Ekstrom, we identify, categorize, and relate main adaptation challenges to better understand the gaps and underlying institutional dynamics causing them. Intergovernmental coordination and comprehensive planning and prioritization are the main overarching challenges, with high emphasis in the literature, while the challenge of retreat and the private sector are less discussed. It is followed by recommendations for different levels of government, informing the path forward from the stakeholders' perspective. A discussion of findings provides several implications for local, state, and federal policymakers. This research could be extended to other coastal and non-coastal areas to help formulate national and sub-national adaptation policies that maintain a holistic vision for adaptation policymaking while pondering the context-specificities of states, regions, and localities. It would be an essential task as adapting to climate change is still in its infancy stages, with the prospect of staying with us for decades to come.
{"title":"Gap analysis of climate adaptation policymaking in Coastal Virginia","authors":"Sadegh Eghdami, V. Michel, M. Shafiee-Jood, G. Louis","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1259337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1259337","url":null,"abstract":"Due to its inherent multidimensionality and complexities, successful climate adaptation policymaking requires a concerted effort among multiple governance levels. Discovering the challenges and governance gaps can provide insights for policymakers paving the way for more effective policies in the future. This paper intends to provide such analysis for Coastal Virginia, a strategic region in the United States receiving significant climate impacts, particularly sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding. Utilizing semi-structured interviews with the main stakeholders and building on the adaptation framework of Moser and Ekstrom, we identify, categorize, and relate main adaptation challenges to better understand the gaps and underlying institutional dynamics causing them. Intergovernmental coordination and comprehensive planning and prioritization are the main overarching challenges, with high emphasis in the literature, while the challenge of retreat and the private sector are less discussed. It is followed by recommendations for different levels of government, informing the path forward from the stakeholders' perspective. A discussion of findings provides several implications for local, state, and federal policymakers. This research could be extended to other coastal and non-coastal areas to help formulate national and sub-national adaptation policies that maintain a holistic vision for adaptation policymaking while pondering the context-specificities of states, regions, and localities. It would be an essential task as adapting to climate change is still in its infancy stages, with the prospect of staying with us for decades to come.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48769354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-17DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1225190
R. Chami, C. Fullenkamp, Andrés González Gómez, Nathalie Hilmi, Nicolás E. Magud
The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all nations to combat climate change and to adapt to its effects. Countries promise to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through their Nationally Determined Contributions. Pledges to reduce emissions, however, have implications for economic growth. We estimate the link between economic growth and CO2 pollution levels and find that this relationship is highly non-linear. A country's GHG emissions rise rapidly as its economic activity rises, relative to global activity, meaning that fast-growing countries contribute most heavily to current GHG emissions. Then, using real per-capita GDP as our metric, we estimate how much the carbon price should be in order to remove the economic growth benefit from excess GHG emissions. We find that the implied prices are far higher than the prices on any existing market for emissions as well as estimates of the social cost of carbon. Our findings also have important implications for the global dialogue regarding responsibility for climate mitigation as well as for the choice of policies to support mitigation efforts.
{"title":"The price is not right","authors":"R. Chami, C. Fullenkamp, Andrés González Gómez, Nathalie Hilmi, Nicolás E. Magud","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1225190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1225190","url":null,"abstract":"The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all nations to combat climate change and to adapt to its effects. Countries promise to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through their Nationally Determined Contributions. Pledges to reduce emissions, however, have implications for economic growth. We estimate the link between economic growth and CO2 pollution levels and find that this relationship is highly non-linear. A country's GHG emissions rise rapidly as its economic activity rises, relative to global activity, meaning that fast-growing countries contribute most heavily to current GHG emissions. Then, using real per-capita GDP as our metric, we estimate how much the carbon price should be in order to remove the economic growth benefit from excess GHG emissions. We find that the implied prices are far higher than the prices on any existing market for emissions as well as estimates of the social cost of carbon. Our findings also have important implications for the global dialogue regarding responsibility for climate mitigation as well as for the choice of policies to support mitigation efforts.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47860832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-09DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1017774
I. Schicker, Johanna Ganglbauer, Markus Dabernig, T. Nacht
With hydropower being the dominant source of renewable energy in Austria and recent years being disproportionally dry, alternative renewable energy sources need to be tapped to compensate for the reduction of fossil fuels and account for dry conditions. This becomes even more important given the current geopolitical situation. Wind power plays an essential role in decarbonizing Austria's electricity system. For local assessments of historic, recent, and future wind conditions, adequate climate data are essential. Reanalysis data, often used for such assessments, have a coarse spatial resolution and could be unable to capture local wind features relevant for wind power modeling. Thus, raw reanalysis data need post-processing, and the results need to be interpreted with care. The purpose of this study is to assess the quality of three reanalysis data sets, such as MERRA-2, ERA5, and COSMO-REA6, for both surface level and hub height wind speed and wind power production at meteorological observation sites and wind farms in flat and mountainous terrain. Furthermore, the study aims at providing a first knowledge baseline toward generating a novel wind speed and wind power atlas at different hub heights for Austria with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km and for an experimental region with sub-km resolution. Thus, the study tries to answer (i) the questions if the reanalysis and analysis data can reproduce surface-level wind speed and (ii) if wind power calculations based on these data can be trusted, providing a knowledge base for future wind speed and wind power applications in complex terrain.For that purpose, a generalized additive model (GAM) is applied to enable a data-driven gridded surface wind speed analysis as well as extrapolation to hub heights as a first step toward generating a novel wind speed atlas. In addition, to account for errors due to the coarse grid of the re-analysis, the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) and the Global Wind Atlas (GWA) are used for correction using an hourly correction factor accounting for diurnal variations. For the analysis of wind power, an empirical turbine power curve approach was facilitated and applied to five different wind sites in Austria.The results showed that for surface-level wind speed, the GAM outperforms the reanalysis data sets across all altitude levels with a mean average error (MAE) of 1.65 m/s for the meteorological sites. It even outperforms the NEWA wind atlas, which has an MAE of 3.78 m/s. For flat regions, the raw reanalysis matches the production data better than NEWA, also for hub height wind speeds, following wind power. For the mountainous areas, a correction of the reanalysis data based on the NEWA climatology, or even the NEWA climatology itself, significantly improved wind power evaluations. Comparisons between modeled wind power time series and real data show mean absolute errors of 8% of the nominal power in flat terrain and 14 or 17% in mountainous terrain.
{"title":"Wind power estimation on local scale—A case study of representativeness of reanalysis data and data-driven analysis","authors":"I. Schicker, Johanna Ganglbauer, Markus Dabernig, T. Nacht","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1017774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1017774","url":null,"abstract":"With hydropower being the dominant source of renewable energy in Austria and recent years being disproportionally dry, alternative renewable energy sources need to be tapped to compensate for the reduction of fossil fuels and account for dry conditions. This becomes even more important given the current geopolitical situation. Wind power plays an essential role in decarbonizing Austria's electricity system. For local assessments of historic, recent, and future wind conditions, adequate climate data are essential. Reanalysis data, often used for such assessments, have a coarse spatial resolution and could be unable to capture local wind features relevant for wind power modeling. Thus, raw reanalysis data need post-processing, and the results need to be interpreted with care. The purpose of this study is to assess the quality of three reanalysis data sets, such as MERRA-2, ERA5, and COSMO-REA6, for both surface level and hub height wind speed and wind power production at meteorological observation sites and wind farms in flat and mountainous terrain. Furthermore, the study aims at providing a first knowledge baseline toward generating a novel wind speed and wind power atlas at different hub heights for Austria with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km and for an experimental region with sub-km resolution. Thus, the study tries to answer (i) the questions if the reanalysis and analysis data can reproduce surface-level wind speed and (ii) if wind power calculations based on these data can be trusted, providing a knowledge base for future wind speed and wind power applications in complex terrain.For that purpose, a generalized additive model (GAM) is applied to enable a data-driven gridded surface wind speed analysis as well as extrapolation to hub heights as a first step toward generating a novel wind speed atlas. In addition, to account for errors due to the coarse grid of the re-analysis, the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) and the Global Wind Atlas (GWA) are used for correction using an hourly correction factor accounting for diurnal variations. For the analysis of wind power, an empirical turbine power curve approach was facilitated and applied to five different wind sites in Austria.The results showed that for surface-level wind speed, the GAM outperforms the reanalysis data sets across all altitude levels with a mean average error (MAE) of 1.65 m/s for the meteorological sites. It even outperforms the NEWA wind atlas, which has an MAE of 3.78 m/s. For flat regions, the raw reanalysis matches the production data better than NEWA, also for hub height wind speeds, following wind power. For the mountainous areas, a correction of the reanalysis data based on the NEWA climatology, or even the NEWA climatology itself, significantly improved wind power evaluations. Comparisons between modeled wind power time series and real data show mean absolute errors of 8% of the nominal power in flat terrain and 14 or 17% in mountainous terrain.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48028127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1145231
Miriam R. Aczel, Therese E. Peffer
Given the uncertainty around climate change and the need to design systems that anticipate future needs, risks, and costs or values related to resilience, the current rules-based regulatory and policy frameworks designed for the centralized system of large-scale energy generation and delivery may not be ‘fit for purpose' for smaller scale local installations centered on community microgrids. This research examines regulatory challenges and potential impediments to implementing a multi-customer community-based microgrid in California through discussion of lessons learned in current pilot projects supported in part by initiatives of the California Energy Commission's Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC). The extent to which regulation has the flexibility to anticipate future needs and risks and support experimentation is evaluated in light of the state's complex and evolving energy system requirements. To illustrate challenges, two case studies of EPIC-supported projects are included. Multiple uncertainties, including future impacts of climate change, energy demands, and advances in technology, highlight the potential need to rethink best approaches to energy regulation. Principles drawn from Resilience Thinking and Anticipatory Regulation are discussed for their potential value in supporting development of new models for community-scale energy production, distribution, and use. Drawing on the experiences of the pilot projects, suggested principles to guide a new regulatory regime specific to microgrids are proposed.
{"title":"Advancing California's microgrid communities through anticipatory energy resilience","authors":"Miriam R. Aczel, Therese E. Peffer","doi":"10.3389/fclim.2023.1145231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1145231","url":null,"abstract":"Given the uncertainty around climate change and the need to design systems that anticipate future needs, risks, and costs or values related to resilience, the current rules-based regulatory and policy frameworks designed for the centralized system of large-scale energy generation and delivery may not be ‘fit for purpose' for smaller scale local installations centered on community microgrids. This research examines regulatory challenges and potential impediments to implementing a multi-customer community-based microgrid in California through discussion of lessons learned in current pilot projects supported in part by initiatives of the California Energy Commission's Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC). The extent to which regulation has the flexibility to anticipate future needs and risks and support experimentation is evaluated in light of the state's complex and evolving energy system requirements. To illustrate challenges, two case studies of EPIC-supported projects are included. Multiple uncertainties, including future impacts of climate change, energy demands, and advances in technology, highlight the potential need to rethink best approaches to energy regulation. Principles drawn from Resilience Thinking and Anticipatory Regulation are discussed for their potential value in supporting development of new models for community-scale energy production, distribution, and use. Drawing on the experiences of the pilot projects, suggested principles to guide a new regulatory regime specific to microgrids are proposed.","PeriodicalId":33632,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Climate","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49614240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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