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Pathways for marine carbon dioxide removal using electrochemical acid-base generation 利用电化学酸碱生成去除海洋二氧化碳的途径
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1349604
M. Eisaman
Research over the past decade has resulted in various methods for removing CO2 from the atmosphere using seawater and electrochemically generated acids and bases. This Perspective aims to present a unified framework for comparing these approaches. Specifically, these methods can all be seen as falling into one of two categories: those that result in a net increase in ocean alkalinity and use the “ocean as a sponge” for atmospheric CO2 (ocean alkalinity enhancement, or OAE) and those that cycle ocean alkalinity and use the “ocean as a pump” for atmospheric CO2 (ocean alkalinity cycling, or OAC). In this Perspective, approaches for marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) using electrochemistry are compared using this framework, and the similarities and differences of these two categories are explored.
过去十年的研究产生了多种利用海水和电化学产生的酸和碱去除大气中二氧化碳的方法。本视角旨在提出一个统一的框架来比较这些方法。具体来说,这些方法都可被视为属于以下两类之一:导致海洋碱度净增加并将海洋 "作为海绵 "来吸收大气中的二氧化碳的方法(海洋碱度增强法,简称 OAE)和循环海洋碱度并将海洋 "作为泵 "来吸收大气中的二氧化碳的方法(海洋碱度循环法,简称 OAC)。在本《视角》中,将利用这一框架对利用电化学去除海洋二氧化碳(mCDR)的方法进行比较,并探讨这两类方法的异同。
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引用次数: 0
Values must be at the heart of responding to loss and damage 应对损失和损害必须以价值观为核心
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1339915
K. McNamara, R. Clissold, Ross Westoby, Merewalesi Yee, Taputu Mariri, Vaine Wichman, V. Obed, Precilla Meto, Elizabeth Raynes, M. M. Nand
As climate change worsens, loss and damage will rapidly accelerate, causing tremendous suffering worldwide. Conceptualising loss and damage based on what people value in their everyday lives and what they consider worth preserving in the face of risk needs to be at the centre of policy and funding. This study in three Pacific Island countries utilises a local, values-based approach to explore people’s experiences of climate change, including intolerable impacts, to inform locally meaningful priorities for funding, resources, and action. What people value determines what is considered intolerable, tolerable, and acceptable in terms of climate-driven loss and damage, and this can inform which responses should be prioritised and where resources should be allocated to preserve the things that are most important to people. Given people’s different value sets and experiences of climate change across places and contexts, intolerable impacts, and responses to address them are place-dependent. We call on policy makers to ensure that understandings of, and responses to, loss and damage are locally identified and led.
随着气候变化的加剧,损失和损害将迅速加速,在全世界造成巨大的痛苦。根据人们在日常生活中的价值以及他们认为在面临风险时值得保护的东西来确定损失和损害的概念,需要成为政策和资金的核心。这项在三个太平洋岛国开展的研究采用了一种基于当地价值观的方法,探讨人们对气候变化(包括无法忍受的影响)的体验,从而为当地有意义的资金、资源和行动优先事项提供信息。人们的价值观决定了在气候导致的损失和破坏方面,什么是不可容忍的、可容忍的和可接受的,这可以为哪些应对措施应被优先考虑以及哪些资源应被分配用于保护对人们来说最重要的事物提供信息。鉴于不同地方和背景下人们对气候变化有不同的价值观和体验,不可容忍的影响以及应对这些影响的措施都是因地制宜的。我们呼吁政策制定者确保对损失和损害的理解以及应对措施由当地确定和主导。
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引用次数: 0
Implications of WRF model resolutions on resolving rainfall variability with topography over East Africa WRF 模型分辨率对解决东非降雨量随地形变化的影响
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1311088
A. Mwanthi, J. Mutemi, F. Opijah, Francis M. Mutua, Z. Atheru, G. Artan
There is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of extreme weather forecasts for life-saving applications and in support of various socioeconomic sectors in East Africa, a region with remarkable mesoscale systems due to its complex topography defined by sharp gradients in elevation, inland water bodies, and landuse conversions. This study sought to investigate the impacts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model spatial resolution on resolving rainfall variability with topography utilizing nested domains at 12 and 2.4 km resolutions. The model was driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) Global Forecast System (GFS) final (FNL) reanalysis to simulate the weather patterns over East Africa from 3rd April 2018 to 30th April 2018, which were evaluated against several freely available gridded weather datasets alongside rainfall data from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) stations. The reference datasets and the model outputs revealed that the highlands had more rainfall events and higher maximum daily rainfall intensity compared to the surrounding lowlands, attributed to orographic lifting enhancing convection. Rainfall was inversely proportional to altitude from 500 m to 1,100 m above sea level (ASL) for both coarse and fine resolutions. The convection-permitting setup was superior in three aspects: resolving the inverse altitude-rainfall relationship for altitudes beyond 3000 m ASL, simulating heavy rainfall events over the lowlands, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of low-level wind. Although the coarse resolution setup reasonably simulated rainfall over large mountains, only the convection-permitting configuration could accurately resolve rainfall variability over contrasting topographical features. The study notes that high-resolution modeling systems and topography-sensitive bias correction techniques are critical for improving the quality of operational weather forecasts in East Africa.
东非地区地形复杂,海拔梯度大,有内陆水体,土地用途改变,因此中尺度系统非常突出,因此越来越需要提高极端天气预报的准确性,以用于救生和支持各社会经济部门。本研究试图调查天气研究和预报(WRF)模型空间分辨率对利用 12 千米和 2.4 千米分辨率嵌套域解决降雨量变化与地形的影响。该模型由美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)-全球数据同化系统(GDAS)全球预报系统(GFS)最终(FNL)再分析驱动,模拟了 2018 年 4 月 3 日至 2018 年 4 月 30 日东非上空的天气模式,并根据几个免费提供的网格天气数据集以及肯尼亚气象局(KMD)站点的降雨数据进行了评估。参考数据集和模型输出结果显示,与周围低地相比,高地的降雨事件更多,最大日降雨强度更高,这归因于地貌抬升增强了对流。在粗分辨率和精细分辨率下,从海拔 500 米到 1,100 米的降雨量与海拔高度成反比。允许对流的设置在三个方面更具优势:解决海拔 3000 米以上高度的高度-降雨量反比关系,模拟低地的强降雨事件,以及解决低空风的昼夜周期。虽然粗分辨率设置合理地模拟了大山上空的降雨,但只有允许对流的配置才能准确地解析对比强烈的地形特征上的降雨变化。研究指出,高分辨率建模系统和对地形敏感的偏差校正技术对于提高东非业务天气预报的质量至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
A tool for assessing the sensitivity of soil-based approaches for quantifying enhanced weathering: a US case study 基于土壤的强化风化量化方法敏感性评估工具:美国案例研究
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1346117
T. J. Suhrhoff, Tom Reershemius, Jiuyuan Wang, Jake Jordan, Chris Reinhard, N. Planavsky
Enhanced weathering (EW) of silicate rocks spread onto managed lands as agricultural amendments is a promising carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approach. However, there is an obvious need for the development of tools for Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) before EW can be brought to scale. Shifts in the concentration of mobile elements measured in the solid phase of soils after application of EW feedstocks can potentially be used to track weathering and provide an estimate of the initial carbon dioxide removal of the system. To measure feedstock dissolution accurately it is necessary to control for the amount of feedstock originally present in the sample being analyzed. This can be achieved by measuring the concentration of immobile detrital elements in soil samples after feedstock addition. However, the resolvability of a signal using a soil mass balance approach depends on analytical uncertainty, the ability to accurately sample soils, the amount of feedstock relative to the amount of initial soil in a sample, and on the fraction of feedstock that has dissolved. Here, we assess the viability of soil-based mass-balance approaches across different settings. Specifically, we define a metric for tracer-specific resolvability of feedstock mass addition (φ) and calculate the feedstock application rates (a) and dissolution fractions (b) required to resolve EW. Applying calculations of a, b, and φ to a gridded soil database from the contiguous USA in combination with known compositions of basalt and peridotite feedstocks demonstrates the importance of adequately capturing field heterogeneity in soil elemental concentrations. While EW signals should be resolvable after ~1–3 years of basalt feedstock addition at common application rates for most agricultural settings with adequate sampling protocols, resolving EW in the field is likely to be challenging if uncertainties in tracer concentrations derived from field-scale heterogeneity and analytical error exceed 10%. Building from this framework, we also present a simple tool for practitioners to use to assess the viability of carrying out soil-based EW MRV in a deployment-specific context.
将硅酸盐岩强化风化(EW)作为农业改良剂撒入受管理的土地是一种很有前景的二氧化碳去除(CDR)方法。然而,在将强化风化作用规模化之前,显然需要开发测量、报告和验证(MRV)工具。在施用 EW 给料后,测量土壤固相中移动元素浓度的变化,可用于跟踪风化情况,并对系统的初始二氧化碳去除量进行估算。为了准确测量原料溶解度,有必要控制被分析样本中原有的原料量。这可以通过测量添加给料后土壤样本中不可移动的碎屑元素浓度来实现。然而,使用土壤质量平衡方法的信号解析能力取决于分析的不确定性、准确采集土壤样本的能力、相对于样本中初始土壤量的给料量以及已溶解的给料量。在此,我们将评估基于土壤的质量平衡方法在不同环境下的可行性。具体来说,我们定义了一个示踪剂特定于原料质量添加的可解析性指标(φ),并计算了解析 EW 所需的原料施用率(a)和溶解分数(b)。结合已知的玄武岩和橄榄岩原料成分,将 a、b 和 φ 的计算结果应用于美国毗邻地区的网格土壤数据库,证明了充分捕捉土壤元素浓度的实地异质性的重要性。在大多数农业环境中,如果采用适当的采样规程,以常见的施用率添加玄武岩原料约 1-3 年后,EW 信号应该是可以解决的,但如果因田间尺度异质性和分析误差而导致示踪剂浓度的不确定性超过 10%,那么在田间解决 EW 问题就很可能具有挑战性。在这一框架的基础上,我们还提出了一个简单的工具,供实践者用于评估在特定部署环境下开展基于土壤的环境影响和可衡量性报告(EW MRV)的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate changes in Senegal's drylands: measurement at the household level and determinant assessment 塞内加尔旱地面对气候变化的脆弱性和复原力:家庭层面的衡量和决定因素评估
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1330025
Adjani Nourou-Dine Yessoufou, Shalander Kumar, P. Houessionon, O. N. Worou, A. Wane, Anthony Whitbread
The resilience capacity of smallholder households is one of the main drivers of their ability to continue to farm and make investments in the fragile dryland regions. This paper aims to assess the resilience profile of smallholder farmers in the face of climate change and the factors influencing it in three dryland sub-regions of Senegal, namely, Louga, Kaffrine, and Thies. We developed a composite index of climate resilience (CICR) using data on farmers' perceptions of climate variability and their perceived ability to withstand, adapt, and bounce back in the event of climatic shocks. Drought, strong winds, and soil fertility decline because of climate change emerged as the main climate hazards impacting smallholder farming systems. The CICR value ranged from −2 for the most vulnerable households to +2 for the most resilient households. On average, all the households were found to be vulnerable, with an average CICR value of −0.2. The LOUGA region was the most vulnerable, with an average CICR value of −0.36, followed by THIES (-0.2). The KAFFRINE region was relatively less vulnerable, with a CICR value of −0.1. Ordered logit model estimates show that the chances of improving CICR decrease with the increase of the household head's age until 59 years. Access to training on climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and climate information appeared to have the potential to increase by 171% the chance of the household improving its resilience status. Analysis also shows that one more woman working off-farm or in-home gardening has the potential to multiply by four times the chances of households being more resilient. This highlights the importance of empowering women to enhance household resilience to climate change. The off-farm revenue increased the chance to improve the resilience status of the farm household by 62% and the receipt of transfer revenue by 50%. This study provides a robust method for quantifying resilience or wellbeing and its drivers and enriches our understanding of the resilience ability of farmers to climate change in a West African context. It can be useful in designing effective adaptation interventions and improving the overall wellbeing of smallholder farmers.
小农户的抗灾能力是他们在脆弱的旱地地区继续耕作和投资的主要驱动力之一。本文旨在评估塞内加尔卢加、卡夫林和蒂斯三个旱地次区域小农户面对气候变化时的抗灾能力概况及其影响因素。我们利用农民对气候变异性的看法以及他们在气候冲击下的承受、适应和反弹能力的数据,制定了气候复原力综合指数(CICR)。干旱、强风和气候变化导致的土壤肥力下降是影响小农耕作系统的主要气候灾害。CICR 值从最脆弱家庭的 -2 到最具复原力家庭的 +2 不等。平均而言,所有家庭都是脆弱的,平均 CICR 值为-0.2。LOUGA 地区最脆弱,平均 CICR 值为-0.36,其次是 THIES 地区(-0.2)。卡夫林地区的脆弱性相对较小,CICR 值为-0.1。有序对数模型的估计结果表明,随着户主年龄的增加,提高 CICR 的几率会降低,直至 59 岁。接受气候智能型农业(CSA)实践和气候信息培训似乎有可能使家庭提高抗灾能力的几率增加 171%。分析还显示,多一名妇女在农场外或家中从事园艺工作,家庭提高抗灾能力的几率就有可能增加四倍。这凸显了增强妇女权能以提高家庭抵御气候变化能力的重要性。非农业收入使农户提高抗灾能力的几率增加了 62%,获得转移性收入的几率增加了 50%。这项研究为量化抗灾能力或福祉及其驱动因素提供了一种可靠的方法,丰富了我们对西非农民抵御气候变化能力的了解。它有助于设计有效的适应干预措施,改善小农的整体福祉。
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引用次数: 0
Socioeconomic determinants of modern climate change adaptation of small-scale vegetable farmers in Bohlabela District, Mpumalanga Province 姆普马兰加省博拉贝拉区小规模菜农适应现代气候变化的社会经济决定因素
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1039915
Aluwani Maiwashe Tagwi, Khensani Nicolene Khoza
Climate change significantly impacts small-scale agriculture, with limited adaptation capabilities due to lack of access to advanced science and technology. Traditional methods are ideal, but modern adaptations require significant financial investment, affecting the smallholder under-resourced agricultural sector's economic activities. The study analyzed climate change adaptation drivers among small-scale vegetable farmers, using a representative sample of 244 farmers from four villages through face-to-face interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. Using the Logistic regression model, the results showed resources (extension services), institutional (association membership) and societal influence (farm produce theft, and animal trespassing in the farming plots) to be associated with the use of modern climate change adaptation measures in the study area. The study recommends expanding extension services, strengthening community policing, creating community grazing guidelines, and training farmers on climate change causes, social cohesion, and mitigation strategies to address farm produce theft and animal trespassing. The study contributes new knowledge to the discourse of climate change adaptation by providing empirical evidence pointing out the need to consider critical non-climate factors for farmers when making climate change adaptations interventions in the smallholder farming sector.
气候变化严重影响小规模农业,由于无法获得先进的科学技术,小规模农业的适应能力有限。传统方法是理想选择,但现代适应措施需要大量资金投入,影响了资源不足的小农农业部门的经济活动。本研究通过面对面访谈和半结构化问卷调查的方式,对来自四个村庄的 244 位农民进行了抽样调查,分析了小规模菜农适应气候变化的驱动因素。利用逻辑回归模型,结果显示资源(推广服务)、制度(协会会员资格)和社会影响(农产品失窃和动物闯入农田)与研究地区使用现代气候变化适应措施有关。研究建议扩大推广服务,加强社区警务,制定社区放牧指南,并对农民进行气候变化原因、社会凝聚力和减缓战略方面的培训,以解决农产品盗窃和动物非法入侵问题。本研究通过提供经验证据,指出在小农农业部门进行气候变化适应干预时,需要考虑农民的关键非气候因素,从而为气候变化适应方面的讨论贡献了新的知识。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying soil organic carbon after biochar application: how to avoid (the risk of) counting CDR twice? 施用生物炭后土壤有机碳的量化:如何避免重复计算 CDR 的(风险)?
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1343516
Dilani Rathnayake, Hans-Peter Schmidt, Jens Leifeld, Diane Bürge, T. Bucheli, N. Hagemann
Pyrogenic carbon capture and storage (PyCCS), which comprises the production of biomass, its pyrolysis, and the non-oxidative use of the biochar to create carbon sinks, has been identified as a promising negative emission technology with co-benefits by improving soil properties. Using biochar as a soil additive becomes increasingly common as farmers seek methods for soil improvement and climate change adaptation. Concurrently, there is growing interest in quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) at the level of individual plots to remunerate farmers for their good agricultural practices and the resulting (temporary) carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, methods currently applied in routine analysis quantify SOC, irrespective of its speciation or origin, and do not allow to distinguish biochar-C from SOC. As certification of PyCCS-derived CDR is already established using another quantification method (i.e., analysis of biochar-C content, tracking and registration of its application, and offsetting of carbon expenditures caused by the PyCCS process), the analysis of biochar-C as part of SOC may result in double counting of CDR. Hence, the objectives of this review are (1) to compare the physicochemical properties and the quantities of biochar and SOC fractions on a global and field/site-specific scale, (2) to evaluate the established methods of SOC and pyrogenic carbon (PyC) quantification with regard to their suitability in routine analysis, and (3) to assess whether double counting of SOC and biochar C-sinks can be avoided via analytical techniques. The methods that were found to have the potential to distinguish between non-pyrogenic and PyC in soil are either not fit for routine analysis or require calibration for different soil types, which is extremely laborious and yet to be established at a commercial scale. Moreover, the omnipresence of non-biochar PyC in soils (i.e., from forest fires or soot) that is indistinguishable from biochar-C is an additional challenge that can hardly be solved analytically. This review highlights the risks and limits of only result-based schemes for SOC certification relying on soil sampling and analysis. Carbon sink registers that unite the (spatial) data of biochar application and other forms of land-based CDR are suggested to track biochar applications and to effectively avoid double counting.
热解碳捕集与封存(PyCCS)包括生物质的生产、热解以及生物炭的非氧化利用,以形成碳汇。随着农民寻求改良土壤和适应气候变化的方法,使用生物炭作为土壤添加剂变得越来越普遍。与此同时,人们对在单个地块层面量化土壤有机碳(SOC)以补偿农民的良好农业实践和由此产生的(临时)二氧化碳去除量(CDR)的兴趣也日益浓厚。然而,目前用于常规分析的方法是对 SOC 进行量化,而不考虑其种类或来源,因此无法将生物炭-C 与 SOC 区分开来。由于 PyCCS 衍生 CDR 的认证已采用另一种量化方法(即分析生物炭-C 含量、跟踪和登记其应用,以及抵消 PyCCS 过程造成的碳支出),因此将生物炭-C 作为 SOC 的一部分进行分析可能会导致 CDR 的重复计算。因此,本综述的目的是:(1)比较全球和实地/现场范围内生物炭和 SOC 馏分的理化性质和数量;(2)评估 SOC 和热解碳(PyC)量化的既定方法在常规分析中的适用性;(3)评估是否可以通过分析技术避免 SOC 和生物炭 C-汇的重复计算。研究发现,有可能区分土壤中非热解碳和热解碳的方法要么不适合常规分析,要么需要针对不同的土壤类型进行校准,而校准工作极其费力,且尚未形成商业规模。此外,土壤中无处不在的非生物炭 PyC(即来自森林火灾或烟尘的 PyC)与生物炭-C 无法区分,这也是一项难以通过分析解决的挑战。本综述强调了仅以土壤取样和分析为基础的 SOC 认证计划的风险和局限性。建议将生物炭应用的(空间)数据与其他形式的陆地 CDR 数据结合起来,建立碳汇登记册,以跟踪生物炭的应用,有效避免重复计算。
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing climate services to support community resilience planning: lessons learned from a community-engaged approach to assessing NOAA’s National Water Model 利用气候服务支持社区复原力规划:从社区参与的 NOAA 国家水模型评估方法中汲取的经验教训
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1291165
Kristin B. Raub, Joshua Laufer, Stephen E. Flynn, Shemilore Daniels, Trissha Sivalingam
Inland and coastal flooding and other water-based natural disasters are projected to increase in severity, frequency, and intensity as global temperatures rise, placing a growing number of US communities at risk. Governments at the local, state, and federal levels have been embracing resilience planning to better predict, mitigate, and adapt to such shocks and hazards. A growing number of climate services have been developed to aid communities engaged in these efforts to access, interpret, and make decisions with climate-related data and information. An important tool for potentially supporting this planning is the National Water Model (NWM), created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Water Center (NWC). The NWM is a river and streamflow model that can forecast conditions for the continental United States.However, community end-users were not being effectively engaged in ways that result in widespread tool use and adoption. From 2021 to 2023, seven geographically diverse US communities agreed to participate in a study to understand how the NWM might be applied in resilience planning. Interviews and collaborative sessions were conducted with NWC/NOAA staff and community resilience stakeholders in Burlington, VT; Cincinnati, OH; Portland, OR; Charlotte, NC; Boulder, CO; Minneapolis; MN; and Houston, TXResults provide an improved understanding of potential applications of the National Water Model and have identified actions to overcome the barriers to its use among municipal and regional resilience planners. This research yielded a set of recommendations, co-developed between the seven communities and NWC/ NOAA staff, for how these barriers could be overcome to facilitate wider use of the NWM and its data and visualization services in resilience planning. This study highlights the NWM’s applicability at shorter timescales in resilience planning and points to a more general need for climate services to accommodate near-, medium-, and longterm time frames. The study also found many community stakeholders who use water science and information in resilience planning have diverse disciplinarily backgrounds. Importantly, the majority were not trained hydrologists or water scientists, pointing to the critical need for climate service developers, including the NWC, to embrace co-development efforts that involve a wider range of end-users, including community resilience planners.
随着全球气温升高,预计内陆和沿海洪水及其他水基自然灾害的严重性、频率和强度都将增加,使越来越多的美国社区面临风险。地方、州和联邦各级政府一直在进行抗灾规划,以更好地预测、减轻和适应此类冲击和灾害。越来越多的气候服务被开发出来,以帮助参与这些工作的社区获取、解释与气候相关的数据和信息并做出决策。由美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)国家水资源中心(NWC)创建的国家水资源模型(NWM)就是一个有可能支持这种规划的重要工具。NWM 是一个河流和溪流模型,可预测美国大陆的状况。然而,社区终端用户并未有效参与其中,从而导致工具的广泛使用和采纳。从 2021 年到 2023 年,七个地理位置不同的美国社区同意参与一项研究,以了解如何将 NWM 应用于抗灾规划。研究人员与 NWC/NOAA 工作人员以及弗吉尼亚州伯灵顿、俄亥俄州辛辛那提、俄勒冈州波特兰、北卡罗来纳州夏洛特、科罗拉多州博尔德、明尼阿波利斯和德克萨斯州休斯顿的社区复原力利益相关者进行了访谈并举行了合作会议。这项研究提出了一系列建议,这些建议由七个社区和国家水资源中心/国家海洋和大气局的工作人员共同制定,内容涉及如何克服这些障碍,以促进在抗灾规划中更广泛地使用国家水资源模型及其数据和可视化服务。这项研究强调了 "国家适应性机制 "在抗灾规划中较短时间范围内的适用性,并指出了对气候服务的更普遍需求,以适应近期、中期和长期时间范围。研究还发现,许多在抗灾规划中使用水科学和信息的社区利益相关者具有不同的学科背景。重要的是,大多数人都不是训练有素的水文学家或水利科学家,这表明包括国家气候中心在内的气候服务开发者亟需与包括社区抗灾规划者在内的更广泛的终端用户开展共同开发工作。
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引用次数: 0
Planning for wastewater infrastructure adaptation under deep uncertainty 深度不确定性下的废水基础设施适应规划
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1355446
A. E. F. Allison, J. H. Lawrence, S. A. Stephens, J. H. Kwakkel, S. K. Singh, P. Blackett, A. Stroombergen
Infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas faces challenges from climate change, sea level rise, and the impact of compound hazards. Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) is increasingly being applied as a way of planning under deep uncertainty. Stress testing for robustness is an integral part of DAPP which provides decision-makers with confidence. We outline a seven-step approach—combining scoping workshops, systems mapping, DAPP, exploratory modelling, robust decision-making, real options analysis and validation workshops—to support decision-making for infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. We apply the seven steps to two wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) case studies in New Zealand to quantify indicators, signals, triggers and adaptation thresholds within DAPP plans and to identify adaptation pathways that are robust against future uncertainty. Case study one focuses on the implementation of an existing DAPP at Helensville WWTP. Our modelling enabled the challenge of quantifying indicators for adaptation thresholds and triggers to be overcome. We show that an adaptation threshold occurs at 31 cm of RSLR, the trigger point is sufficient lead time to enable relocation, and the indicator is the rate of observed RSLR. Case study one demonstrates in a quantitative way how an existing DAPP can be functionally implemented by a water management agency. Modelling for case study two, the Seaview WWTP, showed that 26 cm and 56 cm of RSLR are key thresholds. Nuisance flooding may occur after 26 cm of RSLR, which could happen as early as 2040 under a high emissions scenario. Inundation of plant assets may occur after 56 cm of RSLR, which could occur as early as 2060. Modelling showed that implementing changes to plant layout would allow the plant to remain on site for its design life (until 2080). Five adaptation archetypes were developed—sequences of adaptive actions that achieve the performance objective of continuing levels of service and avoid inundation of WWTPs. The seven-step approach is a way to stress-test a DAPP, to quantify signals, triggers and adaptation thresholds and to simulate implementation of a DAPP under a range of scenarios. This can facilitate more robust decision-making for wastewater infrastructure assets under future uncertainty.
低洼沿海地区的基础设施面临着气候变化、海平面上升和复合灾害影响的挑战。动态适应路径规划(DAPP)作为一种在极度不确定情况下进行规划的方法,正得到越来越多的应用。稳健性压力测试是 DAPP 不可分割的一部分,它为决策者提供了信心。我们概述了七步方法--将范围界定研讨会、系统绘图、DAPP、探索性建模、稳健决策、实际选项分析和验证研讨会结合起来,为低洼沿海地区基础设施的决策提供支持。我们将这七个步骤应用于新西兰两家污水处理厂(WWTP)的案例研究,以量化 DAPP 计划中的指标、信号、触发器和适应阈值,并确定可应对未来不确定性的适应路径。案例研究一侧重于海伦斯维尔污水处理厂现有DAPP的实施情况。我们的建模克服了量化适应阈值和触发器指标的挑战。我们表明,适应阈值出现在 31 厘米的 RSLR 上,触发点是有足够的准备时间进行搬迁,而指标则是观测到的 RSLR 率。案例研究一以定量方式展示了水管理机构如何在功能上实施现有的 DAPP。案例研究二(海景污水处理厂)的建模表明,26 厘米和 56 厘米的 RSLR 是关键阈值。在高排放情景下,26 厘米的 RSLR 之后可能会发生有害洪水,最早可能发生在 2040 年。在 RSLR 上升 56 厘米后,工厂资产可能被淹没,最早可能发生在 2060 年。建模显示,改变工厂布局可使工厂在其设计寿命内(直至 2080 年)继续留在现场。我们开发了五种适应原型--一系列适应行动,以实现保持服务水平和避免污水处理厂被淹没的绩效目标。七步法是一种对 DAPP 进行压力测试、量化信号、触发器和适应阈值以及模拟一系列情景下 DAPP 实施情况的方法。这有助于在未来不确定的情况下为污水基础设施资产做出更稳健的决策。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring potential trade-offs in outdoor water use reductions and urban tree ecosystem services during an extreme drought in Southern California 探索南加州特大干旱期间减少室外用水量与城市树木生态系统服务之间的潜在权衡关系
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1280615
Rachel Torres, C. Tague, Joseph P. McFadden
In Southern California cities, urban trees play a vital role in alleviating heat waves through shade provision and evaporative cooling. Trees in arid to semi-arid regions may rely on irrigation, which is often the first municipal water use to be restricted during drought, causing further drought stress. Finding a balance between efficient water use and maintaining tree health will be crucial for long-term urban forestry and water resources management, as climate change will increase drought and extreme heat events. This study aimed to quantify how urban tree water and carbon fluxes are affected by irrigation reductions, and how that relationship changes with tree species and temperature. We used an ecohydrologic model that mechanistically simulates water, carbon, and energy cycling, parameterized for 5 common tree species in a semi-arid urban area. We simulated a range of irrigation reductions based on average outdoor water use data from the city for a recent extreme drought as well as with warmer temperatures. We then analyzed the response of model outcomes of plant carbon fluxes, leaf area index (LAI), and water use. Results show that reducing irrigation up to 25%, a comparable amount as the California state mandate in 2014, has minimal effects on tree primary productivity and water use efficiency. We found that transpiration was linearly related to irrigation input, which could lead to a short-term loss of evaporative cooling with irrigation reductions during drought. However, primary productivity and LAI had a nonlinear response to irrigation, indicating shade provision could be maintained throughout drought with partial irrigation reductions. Results varied across tree species, with some species showing greater sensitivity of productivity to both irrigation reductions and potentially warmer droughts. These results have implications for water resources management before and during drought, and for urban tree climate adaptation to future drought.
在南加州城市,城市树木通过遮荫和蒸发冷却在缓解热浪方面发挥着重要作用。干旱和半干旱地区的树木可能依赖灌溉,而灌溉往往是干旱期间首先受到限制的市政用水,从而造成进一步的干旱压力。由于气候变化将加剧干旱和极端高温事件,因此在高效用水和保持树木健康之间找到平衡点对于长期的城市林业和水资源管理至关重要。本研究旨在量化城市树木的水和碳通量如何受到灌溉减少的影响,以及这种关系如何随着树木种类和温度的变化而变化。我们使用了一个生态水文模型,该模型从机理上模拟了水、碳和能量循环,并为半干旱城市地区的 5 种常见树种设定了参数。我们根据该市最近一次极端干旱和气温升高时的平均室外用水数据,模拟了一系列灌溉减少量。然后,我们分析了模型结果对植物碳通量、叶面积指数(LAI)和用水量的响应。结果表明,将灌溉量减少至 25%(与 2014 年加利福尼亚州规定的灌溉量相当)对树木初级生产力和用水效率的影响微乎其微。我们发现蒸腾作用与灌溉投入呈线性关系,这可能会导致干旱期间减少灌溉造成的短期蒸发冷却损失。然而,初级生产力和LAI对灌溉的反应是非线性的,这表明部分减少灌溉可以在整个干旱期间保持遮荫效果。不同树种的结果各不相同,有些树种的生产力对减少灌溉和可能变暖的干旱更为敏感。这些结果对干旱前和干旱期间的水资源管理,以及城市树木对未来干旱气候的适应具有重要意义。
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