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Bayesian history of science: The case of Watson and Crick and the structure of DNA 贝叶斯科学史:沃森和克里克的案例和DNA的结构
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00233
H. Small
Abstract A naïve Bayes approach to theory confirmation is used to compute the posterior probabilities for a series of four models of DNA considered by James Watson and Francis Crick in the early 1950s using multiple forms of evidence considered relevant at the time. Conditional probabilities for the evidence given each model are estimated from historical sources and manually assigned using a scale of five probabilities ranging from strongly consistent to strongly inconsistent. Alternative or competing theories are defined for each model based on preceding models in the series. Prior probabilities are also set based on the posterior probabilities of these earlier models. A dramatic increase in posterior probability is seen for the final double helix model compared to earlier models in the series, which is interpreted as a form of “Bayesian surprise” leading to the sense that a “discovery” was made. Implications for theory choice in the history of science are discussed.
摘要James Watson和Francis Crick在20世纪50年代初使用当时认为相关的多种形式的证据,使用天真的贝叶斯方法来计算一系列四个DNA模型的后验概率。每个模型给出的证据的条件概率是从历史来源估计的,并使用从强一致到强不一致的五个概率的量表手动分配。基于该系列中的先前模型,为每个模型定义了替代或竞争理论。先验概率也是基于这些早期模型的后验概率设置的。与该系列中的早期模型相比,最终的双螺旋模型的后验概率显著增加,这被解释为一种“贝叶斯惊喜”的形式,导致“发现”的感觉。讨论了理论选择在科学史上的意义。
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引用次数: 2
Is research funding always beneficial? A cross-disciplinary analysis of U.K. research 2014–20 研究经费总是有益的吗?2014 - 2020年英国研究的跨学科分析
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-11 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00254
M. Thelwall, K. Kousha, Mahshid Abdoli, E. Stuart, Meiko Makita, Cristina I. Font Julián, Paul Wilson, Jonathan M. Levitt
Abstract Although funding is essential for some types of research and beneficial for others, it may constrain academic choice and creativity. Thus, it is important to check whether it ever seems unnecessary. Here we investigate whether funded U.K. research tends to be higher quality in all fields and for all major research funders. Based on peer review quality scores for 113,877 articles from all fields in the U.K.’s Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021, we estimate that there are substantial disciplinary differences in the proportion of funded journal articles, from Theology and Religious Studies (16%+) to Biological Sciences (91%+). The results suggest that funded research is likely to be of higher quality overall, for all the largest research funders, and for 30 out of 34 REF Units of Assessment (disciplines or sets of disciplines), even after factoring out research team size. There are differences between funders in the average quality of the research supported, however. Funding seems particularly associated with higher research quality in health-related fields. The results do not show cause and effect and do not take into account the amount of funding received but are consistent with funding either improving research quality or being won by high-quality researchers or projects.
尽管资助对某些类型的研究至关重要,对其他类型的研究有益,但它可能会限制学术选择和创造力。因此,检查它是否显得不必要是很重要的。在这里,我们调查了资助的英国研究是否在所有领域和所有主要研究资助者中都趋向于更高的质量。根据英国研究卓越框架(REF) 2021中来自所有领域的113,877篇文章的同行评议质量分数,我们估计资助期刊文章的比例存在实质性的学科差异,从神学和宗教研究(16%+)到生物科学(91%+)。结果表明,即使将研究团队的规模考虑在内,对于所有最大的研究资助者和34个REF评估单位(学科或学科组)中的30个来说,受资助的研究总体上可能具有更高的质量。然而,不同的资助者所支持的研究的平均质量存在差异。资金似乎与卫生相关领域较高的研究质量特别相关。结果不显示因果关系,也不考虑收到的资助金额,但与资助提高研究质量或由高质量的研究人员或项目赢得一致。
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引用次数: 3
Predicting article quality scores with machine learning: The U.K. Research Excellence Framework 用机器学习预测文章质量分数:英国卓越研究框架
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-11 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00258
M. Thelwall, K. Kousha, Mahshid Abdoli, E. Stuart, Meiko Makita, Paul Wilson, Jonathan M. Levitt, Petr Knoth, M. Cancellieri
Abstract National research evaluation initiatives and incentive schemes choose between simplistic quantitative indicators and time-consuming peer/expert review, sometimes supported by bibliometrics. Here we assess whether machine learning could provide a third alternative, estimating article quality using more multiple bibliometric and metadata inputs. We investigated this using provisional three-level REF2021 peer review scores for 84,966 articles submitted to the U.K. Research Excellence Framework 2021, matching a Scopus record 2014–18 and with a substantial abstract. We found that accuracy is highest in the medical and physical sciences Units of Assessment (UoAs) and economics, reaching 42% above the baseline (72% overall) in the best case. This is based on 1,000 bibliometric inputs and half of the articles used for training in each UoA. Prediction accuracies above the baseline for the social science, mathematics, engineering, arts, and humanities UoAs were much lower or close to zero. The Random Forest Classifier (standard or ordinal) and Extreme Gradient Boosting Classifier algorithms performed best from the 32 tested. Accuracy was lower if UoAs were merged or replaced by Scopus broad categories. We increased accuracy with an active learning strategy and by selecting articles with higher prediction probabilities, but this substantially reduced the number of scores predicted.
摘要国家研究评估举措和激励方案在简单的量化指标和耗时的同行/专家评审之间做出选择,有时还得到文献计量学的支持。在这里,我们评估了机器学习是否可以提供第三种选择,即使用更多的文献计量和元数据输入来估计文章质量。我们对提交给英国卓越研究框架2021的84966篇文章进行了临时三级REF2021同行评审得分调查,与2014-2018年Scopus记录和一篇实质性摘要相匹配。我们发现,医学和物理科学评估单位(UoAs)和经济学的准确率最高,在最佳情况下比基线高出42%(总体高出72%)。这是基于1000个文献计量输入和每个UoA用于培训的一半文章。社会科学、数学、工程、艺术和人文学科UoA高于基线的预测准确率要低得多或接近于零。随机森林分类器(标准或有序)和极限梯度提升分类器算法在32个测试中表现最好。如果UoAs被Scopus大类合并或取代,则准确性较低。我们通过主动学习策略和选择预测概率较高的文章来提高准确性,但这大大减少了预测分数的数量。
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引用次数: 4
Recalibrating the scope of scholarly publishing: A modest step in a vast decolonization process 重新调整学术出版的范围:庞大的非殖民化进程中的一小步
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00228
S. Khanna, Jon Ball, Juan Pablo Alperin, J. Willinsky
Abstract By analyzing 25,671 journals largely absent from common journal counts, as well as Web of Science and Scopus, this study demonstrates that scholarly communication is more of a global endeavor than is commonly credited. These journals, employing the open-source publishing platform Open Journal Systems (OJS), have published 5.8 million items; they are in 136 countries, with 79.9% in the Global South and 84.2% following the OA diamond model (charging neither reader nor author). A substantial proportion of journals operate in more than one language (48.3%), with research published in 60 languages (led by English, Indonesian, Spanish, and Portuguese). The journals are distributed across the social sciences (45.9%), STEM (40.3%), and the humanities (13.8%). For all their geographic, linguistic, and disciplinary diversity, 1.2% are indexed in the Web of Science and 5.7% in Scopus. On the other hand, 1.0% are found in Cabell’s Predatory Reports, and 1.4% show up in Beall’s (2021) questionable list. This paper seeks to both contribute to and historically situate the expanded scale and diversity of scholarly publishing in the hope that this recognition may assist humankind in taking full advantage of what is increasingly a global research enterprise.
摘要通过分析25671种基本上没有出现在普通期刊计数中的期刊,以及《科学网》和《Scopus》,本研究表明,学术交流更多地是一项全球性的努力,而不是人们普遍认为的。这些期刊采用开源出版平台开放期刊系统,已发表580万篇文章;他们分布在136个国家,其中79.9%在全球南方,84.2%遵循OA钻石模型(既不向读者也不向作者收费)。相当大比例的期刊使用一种以上的语言(48.3%),研究以60种语言发表(以英语、印尼语、西班牙语和葡萄牙语为首)。这些期刊分布在社会科学(45.9%)、STEM(40.3%)和人文学科(13.8%)。就其地理、语言和学科多样性而言,1.2%的期刊被编入科学网,5.7%的期刊被列入Scopus。另一方面,1.0%出现在Cabell的《捕食者报告》中,1.4%出现在Beall(2021)的可疑名单中。本文试图对学术出版的规模和多样性的扩大做出贡献,并从历史上对其进行定位,希望这一认识能够帮助人类充分利用日益全球化的研究事业。
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引用次数: 13
AI for AI: Using AI methods for classifying AI science documents AI for AI:使用AI方法对AI科学文献进行分类
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00223
E. Sachini, Konstantinos Sioumalas-Christodoulou, S. Christopoulos, Nikolaos Karampekios
Abstract Subject area classification is an important first phase in the entire process involved in bibliometrics. In this paper, we explore the possibility of using automated algorithms for classifying scientific papers related to Artificial Intelligence at the document level. The current process is semimanual and journal based, a realization that, we argue, opens up the potential for inaccuracies. To counter this, our proposed automated approach makes use of neural networks, specifically BERT. The classification accuracy of our model reaches 96.5%. In addition, the model was used for further classifying documents from 26 different subject areas from the Scopus database. Our findings indicate that a significant subset of existing Computer Science, Decision Science, and Mathematics publications could potentially be classified as AI-related. The same holds in particular cases in other science fields such as Medicine and Psychology or Arts and Humanities. The above indicate that in subject area classification processes, there is room for automatic approaches to be utilized in a complementary manner with traditional manual procedures.
学科领域分类是文献计量学整个过程中重要的第一步。在本文中,我们探索了在文档级别使用自动算法对与人工智能相关的科学论文进行分类的可能性。目前的过程是半手工和基于期刊的,我们认为,这种认识可能会导致不准确。为了解决这个问题,我们提出的自动化方法利用神经网络,特别是BERT。该模型的分类准确率达到96.5%。此外,该模型还用于对Scopus数据库中26个不同主题领域的文档进行进一步分类。我们的研究结果表明,现有的计算机科学、决策科学和数学出版物的一个重要子集可能被归类为与人工智能相关的。这同样适用于其他科学领域,如医学和心理学或艺术和人文学科。上述情况表明,在主题领域分类过程中,可以利用自动方法作为传统手工程序的补充。
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引用次数: 1
Indicators of research quality, quantity, openness, and responsibility in institutional review, promotion, and tenure policies across seven countries 研究质量、数量、开放性和责任指标在7个国家的机构审查、晋升和任期政策
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00224
Nancy Pontika, Thomas Klebel, Antonia Correia, Hannah Metzler, Petr Knoth, T. Ross-Hellauer
Abstract The need to reform research assessment processes related to career advancement at research institutions has become increasingly recognized in recent years, especially to better foster open and responsible research practices. Current assessment criteria are believed to focus too heavily on inappropriate criteria related to productivity and quantity as opposed to quality, collaborative open research practices, and the socioeconomic impact of research. Evidence of the extent of these issues is urgently needed to inform actions for reform, however. We analyze current practices as revealed by documentation on institutional review, promotion, and tenure (RPT) processes in seven countries (Austria, Brazil, Germany, India, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States). Through systematic coding and analysis of 143 RPT policy documents from 107 institutions for the prevalence of 17 criteria (including those related to qualitative or quantitative assessment of research, service to the institution or profession, and open and responsible research practices), we compare assessment practices across a range of international institutions to significantly broaden this evidence base. Although the prevalence of indicators varies considerably between countries, overall we find that currently open and responsible research practices are minimally rewarded and problematic practices of quantification continue to dominate.
摘要近年来,人们越来越认识到改革与研究机构职业发展相关的研究评估流程的必要性,特别是为了更好地促进开放和负责任的研究实践。目前的评估标准被认为过于关注与生产力和数量相关的不适当标准,而不是质量、合作开放研究实践和研究的社会经济影响。然而,迫切需要这些问题严重程度的证据来为改革行动提供信息。我们分析了七个国家(奥地利、巴西、德国、印度、葡萄牙、英国和美国)的机构审查、晋升和任期(RPT)程序文件所揭示的当前做法。通过对107个机构的143份RPT政策文件进行系统编码和分析,了解17项标准的普遍性(包括与研究的定性或定量评估、对机构或专业的服务以及开放和负责任的研究实践有关的标准),我们比较了一系列国际机构的评估实践,以显著拓宽这一证据基础。尽管各国指标的普遍性差异很大,但总的来说,我们发现,目前开放和负责任的研究实践得到的回报微乎其微,有问题的量化实践仍然占主导地位。
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引用次数: 5
Understanding knowledge role transitions: A perspective of knowledge codification 理解知识角色转换:知识编纂的视角
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-07 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00221
Jinqing Yang, Wei Lu, Yong Huang, Qikai Cheng, Li Zhang, Shengzhi Huang
Abstract Informal knowledge constantly transitions into formal domain knowledge in the dynamic knowledge base. This article focuses on an integrative understanding of the knowledge role transition from the perspective of knowledge codification. The transition process is characterized by several dynamics involving a variety of bibliometric entities, such as authors, keywords, institutions, and venues. We thereby designed a series of temporal and cumulative indicators to respectively explore transition possibility (whether new knowledge could be transitioned into formal knowledge) and transition pace (how long it would take). By analyzing the large-scale metadata of publications that contain informal knowledge and formal knowledge in the PubMed database, we find that multidimensional variables are essential to comprehensively understand knowledge role transition. More significantly, early funding support is more important for improving transition pace; journal impact has a positive correlation with the transition possibility but a negative correlation with transition pace; and weaker knowledge relatedness raises the transition possibility, whereas stronger knowledge relatedness improves the transition pace.
摘要在动态知识库中,非正式知识不断向正式领域知识转化。本文主要从知识法典化的角度对知识角色转换进行综合理解。这一转变过程的特点是涉及多种文献计量实体(如作者、关键词、机构和场所)的动态变化。因此,我们设计了一系列时间和累积指标,分别探讨了过渡可能性(新知识是否可以转化为正式知识)和过渡速度(需要多长时间)。通过对PubMed数据库中包含正式知识和非正式知识的大规模出版物元数据的分析,我们发现多维变量是全面理解知识角色转换的关键。更重要的是,早期资金支持对加快转型速度更为重要;期刊影响与转型可能性呈正相关,与转型速度呈负相关;知识关联度越低,转移可能性越大,知识关联度越高,转移速度越快。
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引用次数: 0
How to interpret algorithmically constructed topical structures of scientific fields? A case study of citation-based mappings of the research specialty of invasion biology 如何解释由算法构建的科学领域主题结构?入侵生物学研究专业基于引文的图谱研究
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00194
Matthias Held, T. Velden
Abstract Often, bibliometric mapping studies remain at a very abstract level when assessing the validity or accuracy of the generated maps. In this case study of citation-based mappings of a research specialty, we dig deeper into the topical structures generated by the chosen mapping approaches and examine their correspondence to a sociologically informed understanding of the research specialty in question. Starting from a lexically delineated bibliometric field data set, we create an internal map of invasion biology by clustering the direct citation network with the Leiden algorithm. We obtain a topic structure that seems largely ordered by the empirical objects studied (species and habitat). To complement this view, we generate an external map of invasion biology by projecting the field data set onto the global Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS) field classification. To better understand the representation of invasion biology by this global map, we use a manually coded set of invasion biological publications and investigate their citation-based interlinking with the fields defined by the global field classification. Our analysis highlights the variety of types of topical relatedness and epistemic interdependency that citations can stand for. Unless we assume that invasion biology is unique in this regard, our analysis suggests that global algorithmic field classification approaches that use citation links indiscriminately may struggle to reconstruct research specialties.
通常,在评估生成的地图的有效性或准确性时,文献计量学制图研究仍然停留在非常抽象的水平。在这个研究专业的基于引用的映射的案例研究中,我们深入挖掘了由所选择的映射方法产生的主题结构,并检查了它们与所讨论的研究专业的社会学知识理解的对应关系。从词汇描述的文献计量领域数据集开始,我们使用Leiden算法对直接引用网络进行聚类,从而创建了入侵生物学的内部地图。我们得到了一个主题结构,它似乎在很大程度上是由研究的经验对象(物种和栖息地)排序的。为了补充这一观点,我们通过将野外数据集投射到全球科学技术研究中心(CWTS)的野外分类中,生成了入侵生物学的外部地图。为了更好地理解这张全球地图对入侵生物学的表示,我们使用了一组人工编码的入侵生物学出版物,并研究了它们与全球领域分类定义的领域之间基于引用的相互联系。我们的分析强调了引文可以代表的主题相关性和认知相互依赖性的各种类型。除非我们假设入侵生物学在这方面是独一无二的,否则我们的分析表明,不加区分地使用引文链接的全球算法领域分类方法可能难以重建研究专业。
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引用次数: 3
The challenges of scientometric studies of predatory publishing 掠夺性出版科学计量学研究的挑战
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1162/qss_e_00214
L. Waltman, V. Larivière
This issue of Quantitative Science Studies features the article “Predatory publishing in Scopus: Evidence on cross-country differences,” coauthored by Vít Macháček and Martin Srholec. Based on the Scopus database, this article studies how likely different countries are to publish in so-called predatory journals. Journals suspected to be predatory are identified using the well-known (and controversial) list of potentially predatory publishers and journals compiled by former librarian Jeffrey Beall.
本期《定量科学研究》的专题文章是《Scopus掠夺性出版:跨国差异的证据》,作者是Vít Macháček和Martin Srholec。基于Scopus数据库,本文研究了不同国家在所谓掠夺性期刊上发表文章的可能性。被怀疑具有掠夺性的期刊是由前图书管理员杰弗里·比尔(Jeffrey Beall)编制的一份著名的(也是有争议的)潜在掠夺性出版商和期刊名单来确定的。
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引用次数: 1
Are link-based and citation-based journal metrics correlated? An Open Access megapublisher case study 基于链接和基于引用的期刊指标是否相关?一个开放获取的大型出版商案例研究
IF 6.4 Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1162/qss_a_00199
E. Orduña-Malea, Isidro F. Aguillo
Abstract The current value of link counts as supplementary measures of the formal quality and impact of journals is analyzed, considering an open access megapublisher (MDPI) as a case study. We analyzed 352 journals through 21 citation-based and link-based journal-level indicators, using Scopus (523,935 publications) and Majestic (567,900 links) as data sources. Given the statistically significant strong positive Spearman correlations achieved, it is concluded that link-based indicators mainly reflect the quality (indexed in Scopus), size (publication output), and impact (citations received) of MDPI’s journals. In addition, link data are significantly greater for those MDPI journals covering many subjects (generalist journals). However, nonstatistically significant differences are found between subject categories, which can be partially attributed to the “series title profile” effect of MDPI. Further research is necessary to test whether link-based indicators can be used as informative measures of journals’ current research impact beyond the specific characteristics of MDPI.
摘要以一家开放获取的大型出版商(MDPI)为例,分析了作为衡量期刊形式质量和影响力的补充指标的链接数的现值。我们使用Scopus(523935篇出版物)和Majestic(567900个链接)作为数据源,通过21个基于引用和基于链接的期刊水平指标分析了352篇期刊。鉴于获得了具有统计学意义的强正Spearman相关性,可以得出结论,基于链接的指标主要反映了MDPI期刊的质量(以Scopus为索引)、规模(出版物产出)和影响力(收到的引文)。此外,那些涵盖许多学科的MDPI期刊(多面手期刊)的链接数据要高得多。然而,受试者类别之间存在非统计显著差异,这可以部分归因于MDPI的“系列标题档案”效应。有必要进行进一步的研究,以检验基于链接的指标是否可以作为衡量期刊当前研究影响的信息指标,而不仅仅是MDPI的具体特征。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Quantitative Science Studies
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