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The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany: Concerns About Immigration and Populism 2015年德国难民危机:对移民和民粹主义的担忧
Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3169243
A. Sola
This paper investigates the effect of the refugee crisis, and the related government’s asylum policy, on concerns about immigration of the German population. Exploiting exogenous variation in survey interview timing of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I employ a difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the short-term causal effect of the refugee crisis on concerns about immigration. The estimated effect is substantial, representing an increase in concerns of around 22%, compared to the pre-refugee crisis baseline level. Interestingly, I find that this increase was twice as large for East Germans, compared to West Germans. In a second section, I show concerns about immigration are positively correlated with political support for the relatively new, right-wing populist party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD). However, using the variability in concerns generated by the refugee crisis, I find no evidence of a causal effect of concerns on political preferences in the short term.
本文探讨了难民危机以及相关政府的庇护政策对德国移民问题的影响。利用德国社会经济小组(SOEP)调查访谈时间的外生变化,我采用了差异中的差异策略来估计难民危机对移民问题的短期因果影响。估计的影响是巨大的,与难民危机前的基线水平相比,人们的担忧增加了约22%。有趣的是,我发现与西德人相比,东德人的这种增长是西德人的两倍。在第二部分中,我展示了对移民的担忧与对相对较新的右翼民粹主义政党德国新选择党(AfD)的政治支持呈正相关。然而,利用难民危机引起的关注的可变性,我没有发现短期内关注对政治偏好有因果影响的证据。
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引用次数: 6
(The Struggle for) Refugee Integration into the Labour Market: Evidence from Europe 难民融入劳动力市场的斗争:来自欧洲的证据
Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3180206
Francesco Fasani, T. Frattini, L. Minale
In this paper, we use repeated cross-sectional survey data to study the labour market performance of refugees across several EU countries and over time. In the first part, we document that labour market outcomes for refugees are consistently worse than those for other comparable migrants. The gap remains sizeable even after controlling for individual characteristics as well as for unobservables using a rich set of fixed effects and interactions between area of origin, entry cohort and destination country. Refugees are 11.6 percent less likely to have a job and 22.1 percent more likely to be unemployed than migrants with similar characteristics. Moreover, their income, occupational quality and labour market participation are also relatively weaker. This gap persists until about 10 years after immigration. In the second part, we assess the role of asylum policies in explaining the observed refugee gap. We conduct a difference-in-differences analysis that exploits the differential timing of dispersal policy enactment across European countries: we show that refugee cohorts exposed to these polices have persistently worse labour market outcomes. Further, we find that entry cohorts admitted when refugee status recognition rates are relatively high integrate better into the host country labour market.
在本文中,我们使用重复的横断面调查数据来研究几个欧盟国家和一段时间内难民的劳动力市场表现。在第一部分中,我们证明了难民的劳动力市场结果一直比其他可比的移民更糟糕。即使在控制了个人特征以及使用大量固定效应和原产地区、入境队列和目的地国之间的相互作用来控制不可观察的因素之后,差距仍然很大。与具有相似特征的移民相比,难民找到工作的可能性低11.6%,失业的可能性高22.1%。此外,他们的收入、职业素质和劳动力市场参与度也相对较弱。这种差距一直持续到移民后10年左右。在第二部分中,我们评估了庇护政策在解释观察到的难民差距方面的作用。我们进行了差异中差异分析,利用了欧洲各国分散政策制定的不同时间:我们表明,暴露于这些政策的难民群体的劳动力市场结果持续恶化。此外,我们发现,当难民身份识别率相对较高时,入境队列更好地融入东道国劳动力市场。
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引用次数: 112
Backpackers v. Seasonal Workers: Learning from the Contrasting Temporary Migration Outcomes in Australian and New Zealand Horticulture 背包客与季节工:从澳大利亚和新西兰园艺的临时移民结果对比中学习
Pub Date : 2017-11-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3076585
R. Curtain, Matthew Dornan, Stephen Howes, H. Sherrell
“Crowding out” is a widely accepted claim in migration analysis, evolving from the literature assessing post-Second World War guest-worker labour which helped fuel the economic boom in Europe and other Western countries. Given the costs of regulation, the preference of profit-maximising employers for irregular and minimally-regulated migrants over regulated alternatives will, it is argued, undermine if not condemn to failure well-regulated temporary migration schemes. To test the crowding-out hypothesis, the horticultural labour markets in Australia and New Zealand are examined. The experience of regulated seasonal migrant programs in Australia and New Zealand has been divergent. Even though the two programs are very similar in design, the New Zealand variant has been much more popular than its Australian counterpart. The evidence suggests that the relative attractiveness of regulated and unregulated migrant labour sources depends on a range of factors, including the export orientation of the sector, the costs of collective action and regulation, differences in policy design and implementation, and external factors. Depending on industry and economy-wide characteristics, quality and reputational benefits for employers can offset the cost of regulation.
在移民分析中,“挤出”是一个被广泛接受的说法,它是从评估二战后帮助推动欧洲和其他西方国家经济繁荣的外来劳工的文献中演变而来的。有人认为,考虑到监管的成本,追求利润最大化的雇主对非正规移民和监管最少的移民的偏好,将会破坏监管良好的临时移民计划,如果不是注定失败的话。为了检验挤出假说,我们考察了澳大利亚和新西兰的园艺劳动力市场。在澳大利亚和新西兰,季节性移民项目的管理经验是不同的。尽管这两个节目在设计上非常相似,但新西兰版比澳大利亚版更受欢迎。证据表明,受管制和不受管制的移徙劳工来源的相对吸引力取决于一系列因素,包括该部门的出口导向、集体行动和管制的成本、政策设计和执行的差异以及外部因素。根据行业和整个经济的特点,质量和声誉对雇主的好处可以抵消监管成本。
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引用次数: 2
International Migration Pressures in the Long Run 国际移民的长期压力
Pub Date : 2017-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3062705
R. Campos
En este trabajo se estima la contribucion del crecimiento demografico a la migracion bilateral por medio de un modelo gravitacional y se utilizan los resultados para proyectar flujos migratorios basados en las previsiones de crecimiento demografico de las Naciones Unidas. Para ello se extiende la metodologia de Hanson y McIntosh (2016), y se incluyen paises de destino que no pertenecen a la OCDE, para asi obtener proyecciones para practicamente todos los paises del mundo. En contraposicion con los resultados de Hanson y McIntosh, y a pesar del menor crecimiento demografico esperado en America Latina, Estados Unidos continuara expuesto a presiones inmigratorias a causa del fuerte crecimiento demografico en otras regiones del mundo. Tambien se proyecta un incremento del numero de migrantes a nivel global, de 2,8 % de la poblacion mundial en 2010 a 3,5 % en 2050, fundamentado en un aumento sustancial de migrantes provenientes de la India y el Africa subsahariana.
在这一背景下,本文提出了一种假设,即人口增长对双边移徙的贡献是通过一种基于联合国人口增长预测的人口增长模型来估计的。这扩展了Hanson和McIntosh(2016)的方法,包括非经合组织目的地国家,以获得世界上几乎所有国家的预测。与Hanson和McIntosh的结果相反,尽管拉丁美洲的人口增长预期较低,但由于世界其他地区的人口增长强劲,美国将继续面临移民压力。预计全球移民数量也将从2010年占世界人口的2.8%增加到2050年的3.5%,这是基于来自印度和撒哈拉以南非洲的移民数量的大幅增加。
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引用次数: 52
Effects of Emigration on Rural Labor Markets 移民对农村劳动力市场的影响
Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/W23929
A. Akram, S. Chowdhury, A. Mobarak
Rural to urban migration is an integral part of the development process, but there is little evidence on how out-migration transforms rural labor markets. Emigration could benefit landless village residents by reducing labor competition, or conversely, reduce productivity if skilled workers leave. We offer to subsidize transport costs for 5792 potential seasonal migrants in Bangladesh, randomly varying saturation of offers across 133 villages. The transport subsidies increase beneficiaries’ income due to better employment opportunities in the city, and also generate the following spillovers: (a) A higher density of offers increases the individual take-up rate, and induces those connected to offered recipients to also migrate. The village emigration rate increases from 35% to 65%. (b) This increases the male agricultural wage rate in the village by 4.5-6.6%, and the available work hours in the village by 11-14%, which combine to increase income earned in the village, (c) There is no intra-household substitution in labor supply, but primary workers within households earn more during weeks in which many of their village co-residents moved away. (d) The wage bill for agricultural employers increases, which reduces their profit, with no significant change in yield. (e) Food prices increase by 2.7% on net, driven by an increase in the price of (fish) protein, and offset by (f) a decrease in the price of non-tradables like prepared food and tea. Seasonal migration subsidies not only generate large direct benefits, but also indirect spillover benefits by creating slack in the village-of-origin labor market during the lean season.
农村向城市迁移是发展进程的一个组成部分,但很少有证据表明,向外迁移如何改变农村劳动力市场。移民可以减少劳动力竞争,从而使没有土地的村庄居民受益;反之,如果熟练工人离开,则会降低生产率。我们为孟加拉国的5792名潜在季节性移民提供交通补贴,在133个村庄随机改变补贴的饱和度。由于在城市有更好的就业机会,交通补贴增加了受益者的收入,并产生了以下溢出效应:(a)更高的优惠密度增加了个人接受率,并促使与优惠接受者有联系的人也迁移。农村移民率从35%上升到65%。(b)这使村里的男性农业工资率提高了4.5-6.6%,使村里的可用工作时间增加了11-14%,这两者结合起来增加了村里的收入;(c)劳动力供应不存在家庭内部替代,但在许多同村居民搬走的几周内,家庭内的主要工人收入增加。(d)农业雇主的工资帐单增加了,这减少了他们的利润,而产量却没有重大变化。(e)由于(鱼类)蛋白质价格上涨,食品价格净上涨2.7%,并被(f)加工食品和茶等非贸易品价格下降所抵消。季节性迁移补贴不仅产生巨大的直接好处,但也间接溢出效益通过创建萧条village-of-origin劳动力市场在精益季节。
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引用次数: 67
The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream IT繁荣和追求美国梦的其他意想不到的后果
Pub Date : 2017-08-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2968147
Gaurav Khanna, N. Morales
With the majority of all H-1B visas going to Indians, we study how US immigration policy coupled with the internet boom affected both the US and Indian economies, and in particular both countries’ IT sectors. The H-1B scheme led to a tech boom in both countries, inducing substantial gains in firm productivity and consumer welfare in both the United States and India. We find that the US-born workers gained $431 million in 2010 as a result of the H-1B scheme. In India, the H-1B program induced Indians to switch to computer science (CS) occupations, increasing the CS workforce and raising overall IT output in India by 5 percent. Indian students enrolled in engineering schools to gain employment in the rapidly growing US IT industry via the H-1B visa program. Those who could not join the US workforce, due to the H-1B cap, remained in India, and along with return-migrants, enabled the growth of an Indian IT sector, which led to the outsourcing of some production to India. The migration and rise in Indian exports induced a small number of US workers to switch to non-CS occupations, with distributional impacts. Our general equilibrium model captures firm-hiring across various occupations, innovation and technology diffusion, and dynamic worker decisions to choose occupations and fields of major in both the United States and India. Supported by a rich descriptive analysis of the changes in the 1990s and 2000s, we match data moments and show that our model captures levels and trends of key variables in validation tests. We perform counter-factual exercises and find that on average, workers in each country are better off because of high-skill migration.
由于大多数H-1B签证都发给了印度人,我们研究了美国移民政策与互联网繁荣如何影响美国和印度的经济,尤其是两国的IT行业。H-1B计划导致了两国的科技繁荣,使美国和印度的企业生产率和消费者福利大幅提高。我们发现,由于H-1B计划,美国出生的工人在2010年获得了4.31亿美元。在印度,H-1B计划促使印度人转向计算机科学(CS)职业,增加了CS劳动力,并将印度的整体IT产出提高了5%。印度学生就读工程学院是为了通过H-1B签证计划在快速发展的美国IT行业找到工作。由于H-1B签证的限制,那些无法加入美国劳动力大军的人留在了印度,与回国的移民一起,促进了印度IT行业的发展,这导致了一些生产外包给印度。印度出口的移民和增长促使少数美国工人转向非cs职业,并产生了分配影响。我们的一般均衡模型捕捉了美国和印度不同职业的公司招聘、创新和技术扩散,以及工人选择职业和专业领域的动态决策。在对20世纪90年代和21世纪初的变化进行了丰富的描述性分析的支持下,我们匹配了数据时刻,并表明我们的模型捕获了验证测试中关键变量的水平和趋势。我们进行了反事实练习,发现平均而言,由于高技能移民,每个国家的工人都过得更好。
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引用次数: 23
The Paradox of 'Legality': Temporary Migrant Worker Programs and Vulnerability to Trafficking “合法性”的悖论:临时移民工人计划与易受贩运之害
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/9781316675809.017
Hila Shamir
The paper analyzes why temporary work migration programs (TMWPs) - the very migration regimes that are supposed to protect migrant workers from vulnerability to the severe labor market exploitation caused by undocumented status - paradoxically may end up exacerbating vulnerability to human trafficking. The paper identifies the common features of TMWPs that might increase or decrease workers’ vulnerability to trafficking. Seven main elements of such programs are discussed: recruitment practices and debt; travel documents withholding; labor market mobility restrictions (such as binding arrangements); family accompaniment restrictions; housing requirements and restrictions; exclusion from labor and employment laws; and the temporary nature of migrant workers’ stay in the host country and the obstacles to naturalization there. The paper concludes by addressing the question whether such programs should therefore be the target of anti-trafficking campaigns. It argues that while TMWPs do indeed inherently and necessarily limit migrant workers' market mobility and bargaining power to some extent, the degree of harmfulness of these limits and restrictions is contingent on the details of the program and the wider context of employment and labor market practices.
本文分析了为什么临时工作移民计划(TMWPs)——本应保护移民工人免受无证身份造成的严重劳动力市场剥削的移民制度——最终反而可能加剧人口贩运的脆弱性。本文确定了tmwp的共同特征,这些特征可能会增加或减少工人对贩运的脆弱性。本文讨论了此类项目的七个主要要素:招聘实践和债务;扣留旅行证件;劳动力市场流动限制(如约束性安排);家庭陪同限制;住房要求和限制;被排除在劳动和就业法之外;以及农民工在东道国停留的临时性和入籍的障碍。论文最后提出了这样一个问题,即此类项目是否应因此成为反贩运运动的目标。报告认为,虽然tmwp在某种程度上确实固有且必然地限制了农民工的市场流动性和议价能力,但这些限制和限制的有害程度取决于该计划的细节以及就业和劳动力市场实践的更广泛背景。
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引用次数: 3
Negative-Selection Migration, Human Capital Accumulation and Development Trap 负选择迁移、人力资本积累与发展陷阱
Pub Date : 2017-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2959342
Daichi Yamada
This paper theoretically examines the effect of labor migration on education investment and human capital accumulation in migrant-sending countries in a negative-selection circumstance. Negative-selection migration has two conflicting effects: parents' migration brings remittances and facilitates education investment while individuals in prospect of future migration lose education incentives. The results show that migration encourages education investment when school quality is high, but that migration discourages it and creates a development trap otherwise. This paper also examines a case where the migration destination employs an education-based immigration restriction. The trap remains unless the restriction is drastically severe.
本文从理论上考察了移民输出国在负选择环境下劳动力迁移对教育投资和人力资本积累的影响。负选择移民有两种相互矛盾的影响:父母的移民带来了汇款,促进了教育投资,而个人在未来的移民前景中失去了教育激励。结果表明,当学校质量高时,移民会促进教育投资;反之,移民会阻碍教育投资,造成发展陷阱。本文还研究了移民目的地采用基于教育的移民限制的案例。除非限制非常严格,否则陷阱仍然存在。
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引用次数: 1
Migration and Cross-Border Financial Flows 移民和跨境资金流动
Pub Date : 2017-04-25 DOI: 10.1093/WBER/LHX007
M. Kugler, Oren Levintal, Hillel Rapoport
Migration facilitates the flow of information between countries, thereby reducing informational frictions that potentially hamper cross-country financial flows. Using a gravity model, migration is found to be highly correlated with financial flows from the migrant's host country to her home country. The correlation is strongest where information problems are more acute (e.g., between culturally more distant countries), for asset types that are more informational sensitive, and for the type of migrants that are most able to enhance the flow of information on their home countries, namely, skilled migrants. These differential effects are interpreted as evidence for the role of migration in reducing information frictions between countries.
移徙促进了国家间的信息流动,从而减少了可能阻碍跨国资金流动的信息摩擦。使用重力模型,发现移民与移民东道国向其母国的资金流动高度相关。在信息问题更严重的地方(例如,在文化距离较远的国家之间),对信息更敏感的资产类型,以及最能加强本国信息流动的移民类型,即技术移民,这种相关性最强。这些差异效应被解释为移民在减少国家间信息摩擦方面所起作用的证据。
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引用次数: 77
Country Conditions in Central America and Asylum Decision-Making: Report from a January 2017 Workshop 中美洲国家状况与庇护决策:2017年1月研讨会报告
Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2954216
Jayesh Rathod, E. Hershberg, Dennis Stinchcomb
In recent years, cases involving Central American migrants, including unaccompanied children (UACs) and families, have inundated the U.S. immigration system. Many of these migrants have expressed a fear of persecution and have applied for asylum, initiating a resource and time-intensive adjudication process with high stakes. Since many of these claims rely on non-legal expertise – often relating to country conditions and/or mental health assessments – the influx of cases presents new opportunities for collaboration between social scientists and legal scholars. In order to foster the collaboration that could inform the equitable adjudication of these cases, a cross-disciplinary team at American University convened an international group of researchers and practitioners with expertise across three areas: 1) country conditions in Central America; 2) psychological assessment of asylum seekers; and 3) asylum adjudication and evolving jurisprudence on asylum law in the U.S. The workshop had multiple goals, including the development of cross-disciplinary professional networks, the articulation of plans for future research, and the identification of other collaborative efforts seeking to address challenges in asylum adjudication.
近年来,涉及中美洲移民的案件,包括无人陪伴儿童和家庭,已经淹没了美国的移民系统。这些移民中的许多人表示害怕受到迫害,并申请庇护,启动了一个资源和时间密集的高风险裁决程序。由于许多这类索赔依赖于非法律专门知识——通常与国家情况和(或)精神健康评估有关——大量涌入的案件为社会科学家和法律学者之间的合作提供了新的机会。为了促进能够为这些案件的公平裁决提供信息的合作,美利坚大学的一个跨学科小组召集了一个国际研究人员和实践者小组,他们具有三个领域的专业知识:1)中美洲的国家情况;2)对寻求庇护者的心理评估;研讨会有多个目标,包括发展跨学科专业网络,阐明未来研究计划,以及确定寻求解决庇护裁决挑战的其他合作努力。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
International Political Economy: Migration eJournal
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