A miracle in medical procedure, organ transplantation, has taken place in recent decades due to the diffusion of a new technology. The new technology refers to a family of the so‐called immunosuppressive drugs. As a result, survival rates of major organ transplants have risen to a record‐level of 80 to 90%. This paper has four objectives. First, the speed of new technology diffusion is measured from the historical penetration ratio for the major immunosuppressive drugs. It took, on average, 6 to 8 years for new drugs to gain the 50% penetration ratio. Second, historical improvement patterns of survival rates for major organ transplants are analyzed by the use of both classical and kinked experience curves. The results indicate that kinked experience equations generated much steeper slopes. Third, the relationship between the increased penetration ratios of new drugs to the improved survival rates of organ transplants is analyzed. Overall, rapid diffusion of new drugs appears to have caused faster improvement of the survival rates. Finally, we forecast the future improvement of survival rates through 2030 by the use of kinked experience equations. Our forecast shows that nearly every type of transplant will reach 90% or higher survival rates by 2020.
{"title":"The Speed and Impact of a New Technology Diffusion in Organ Transplantation: A Case Study Approach","authors":"Yu Sang Chang, Jinsoo Lee, Yun Seok Jung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1742649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1742649","url":null,"abstract":"A miracle in medical procedure, organ transplantation, has taken place in recent decades due to the diffusion of a new technology. The new technology refers to a family of the so‐called immunosuppressive drugs. As a result, survival rates of major organ transplants have risen to a record‐level of 80 to 90%. This paper has four objectives. First, the speed of new technology diffusion is measured from the historical penetration ratio for the major immunosuppressive drugs. It took, on average, 6 to 8 years for new drugs to gain the 50% penetration ratio. Second, historical improvement patterns of survival rates for major organ transplants are analyzed by the use of both classical and kinked experience curves. The results indicate that kinked experience equations generated much steeper slopes. Third, the relationship between the increased penetration ratios of new drugs to the improved survival rates of organ transplants is analyzed. Overall, rapid diffusion of new drugs appears to have caused faster improvement of the survival rates. Finally, we forecast the future improvement of survival rates through 2030 by the use of kinked experience equations. Our forecast shows that nearly every type of transplant will reach 90% or higher survival rates by 2020.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128078711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
According to the World Health Organization, more than one million road traffic deaths occur every year throughout the world. Many countries have established quantified road safety targets in response. Road safety targets need to be based on reliable forecasting methods. This paper attempts to develop such forecasting models for 13 OECD countries based on the data available from 1970 to 2007.Deploying the methodology of both classical and kinked experience curves, we obtained the averaged experience slope of 55% from the kinked experience curve in contrast to 68.6% from the classical experience curve. The averaged standard deviation and R2 calculated also show better fit to the data for the kinked analysis.For the two simulated forecasting periods, we, then, calculate mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to measure forecasting accuracy. In comparing the MAPEs, we find that forecasting accuracy for the kinked models is significantly higher.Finally, we use our kinked models to forecast the road fatalities for 13 countries through 2030. All the countries will experience a considerable reduction in their road fatality rates. The averaged fatality rate of 7.94 in 2010 for these 13 countries is projected to decline to 5.83 in 2020 and 4.54 in 2030.
{"title":"Forecasting Road Fatalities by the Use of Kinked Experience Curve","authors":"Yu Sang Chang, Jinsoo Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1650482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1650482","url":null,"abstract":"According to the World Health Organization, more than one million road traffic deaths occur every year throughout the world. Many countries have established quantified road safety targets in response. Road safety targets need to be based on reliable forecasting methods. This paper attempts to develop such forecasting models for 13 OECD countries based on the data available from 1970 to 2007.Deploying the methodology of both classical and kinked experience curves, we obtained the averaged experience slope of 55% from the kinked experience curve in contrast to 68.6% from the classical experience curve. The averaged standard deviation and R2 calculated also show better fit to the data for the kinked analysis.For the two simulated forecasting periods, we, then, calculate mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to measure forecasting accuracy. In comparing the MAPEs, we find that forecasting accuracy for the kinked models is significantly higher.Finally, we use our kinked models to forecast the road fatalities for 13 countries through 2030. All the countries will experience a considerable reduction in their road fatality rates. The averaged fatality rate of 7.94 in 2010 for these 13 countries is projected to decline to 5.83 in 2020 and 4.54 in 2030.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121940618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The 1997 financial crisis turns out to be a major turning point in the history of Korean chaebols. The post-crisis corporate reform has resulted in a dramatic change in the landscape of chaebols as about one half of the top 30 chaebols changed their names after the crisis. The reform was swift and unprecedented in its comprehensiveness encompassing a wide range of structural changes in the financial structure and corporate governance of chaebols. Improved transparency and strengthened shareholder rights helped chaebols to have greater access to cheaper external finance made available by capital market opening. Nevertheless, the corporate reform is an ongoing process in Korea with full effects yet to be seen. Our empirical findings suggest that the role of internal capital markets has faded out after the crisis but not fully yet. Investment by non-listed chaebol firms remains fairly insensitive to the own cash flow if the firm belongs to a chaebol that owns financial intermediaries. The positive effect of corporate reform appears to have been felt asymmetrically between non-listed firms whose ownership is more concentrated and listed firms that are now subject to more stringent international standards and monitoring by shareholders. These findings imply that key policy challenges in the future are to eliminate the gap between de jure institution and de facto enforcement standards.
{"title":"Post-Crisis Corporate Reform and Internal Capital Markets in Chaebols","authors":"Joon-Kyung Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1523630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1523630","url":null,"abstract":"The 1997 financial crisis turns out to be a major turning point in the history of Korean chaebols. The post-crisis corporate reform has resulted in a dramatic change in the landscape of chaebols as about one half of the top 30 chaebols changed their names after the crisis. The reform was swift and unprecedented in its comprehensiveness encompassing a wide range of structural changes in the financial structure and corporate governance of chaebols. Improved transparency and strengthened shareholder rights helped chaebols to have greater access to cheaper external finance made available by capital market opening. Nevertheless, the corporate reform is an ongoing process in Korea with full effects yet to be seen. Our empirical findings suggest that the role of internal capital markets has faded out after the crisis but not fully yet. Investment by non-listed chaebol firms remains fairly insensitive to the own cash flow if the firm belongs to a chaebol that owns financial intermediaries. The positive effect of corporate reform appears to have been felt asymmetrically between non-listed firms whose ownership is more concentrated and listed firms that are now subject to more stringent international standards and monitoring by shareholders. These findings imply that key policy challenges in the future are to eliminate the gap between de jure institution and de facto enforcement standards.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130410829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
POSCO has played a major role in Korea’s economic development by supplying domestic manufacturers with high-quality, low-cost steel products. Despite its initial disadvantage and lack of resources such as capital, technology, and raw materials, it has emerged as a world-class steel maker in a short span of time. This case study aims to explore and analyze the key success factors of POSCO through examination of the company’s growth and development process. In particular, it examines the role of government policy, top management leadership, technology learning and innovation, cost competitiveness and other factors as important drivers of success. The case also identifies its strategic challenges and key issues for growth in the future.
{"title":"Case Study of POSCO - Analysis of its Growth Strategy and Key Success Factors","authors":"Seung-Joo Lee, Eun-Hyung Lee","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1505288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1505288","url":null,"abstract":"POSCO has played a major role in Korea’s economic development by supplying domestic manufacturers with high-quality, low-cost steel products. Despite its initial disadvantage and lack of resources such as capital, technology, and raw materials, it has emerged as a world-class steel maker in a short span of time. This case study aims to explore and analyze the key success factors of POSCO through examination of the company’s growth and development process. In particular, it examines the role of government policy, top management leadership, technology learning and innovation, cost competitiveness and other factors as important drivers of success. The case also identifies its strategic challenges and key issues for growth in the future.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126649542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper empirically constructs the fiscal performance index for Indian states by using nine separate indicators reflecting different dimensions of fiscal performance of the states. Finance Commissions also use fiscal performance for fund allocations but they use only single indicator based formula which is prone to inefficiency. There is a need for more sophisticated methods for assessing the fiscal performance more carefully. Present paper is an attempt to construct such an index to understand the public finance management of Indian states. My analysis suggests that Chandigarh and Tamilnadu are the best managers and Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana have fairly good public finance management. On the other hand, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are the worst managers.
{"title":"Public Finance Management in Indian States","authors":"N. Verma","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2708623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2708623","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically constructs the fiscal performance index for Indian states by using nine separate indicators reflecting different dimensions of fiscal performance of the states. Finance Commissions also use fiscal performance for fund allocations but they use only single indicator based formula which is prone to inefficiency. There is a need for more sophisticated methods for assessing the fiscal performance more carefully. Present paper is an attempt to construct such an index to understand the public finance management of Indian states. My analysis suggests that Chandigarh and Tamilnadu are the best managers and Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana have fairly good public finance management. On the other hand, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are the worst managers.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122601732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The evolution of civilization appears to have primarily resulted from continuous improvement made possible by technological advances. A group of social evolutionists and economists have identified, among others, energy, transport, as well as information and communication to be the three most influential technologies. On the other hand, a number of eminent scholars have cited several forces, natural, physiological, technological, as well as environmental which can place a limit on on-going improvement. The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the continuous improvement process as well as the limit placed on these three technologies. Using the framework of both connected and disconnected multiple technology S-curves and X-factor, historical improvement data on these three elements have been analyzed. The results of our analysis indicate that improvement in general has continued without limit mainly due to a series of emerging new technologies. These emerging technologies can be either connected or disconnected from the existing mature technologies. Our preliminary analysis shows that much of the past improvement comes from new technologies that on first serious application appear to be substantially superior from earlier technologies. In addition, enormous continuous improvement, which has accompanied both connected and disconnected new technologies appear to have played the critical role in sustaining the evolution of civilization. The paper discusses a number of policy implications and suggests topics for future research.
{"title":"Limit to Improvement: Myth or Reality? Empirical Analysis of Historical Improvement on Three Technologies Influential in the Evolution of Civilization","authors":"Yu Sang Chang, Seungmin Baek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1444165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1444165","url":null,"abstract":"The evolution of civilization appears to have primarily resulted from continuous improvement made possible by technological advances. A group of social evolutionists and economists have identified, among others, energy, transport, as well as information and communication to be the three most influential technologies. On the other hand, a number of eminent scholars have cited several forces, natural, physiological, technological, as well as environmental which can place a limit on on-going improvement. The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the continuous improvement process as well as the limit placed on these three technologies. Using the framework of both connected and disconnected multiple technology S-curves and X-factor, historical improvement data on these three elements have been analyzed. The results of our analysis indicate that improvement in general has continued without limit mainly due to a series of emerging new technologies. These emerging technologies can be either connected or disconnected from the existing mature technologies. Our preliminary analysis shows that much of the past improvement comes from new technologies that on first serious application appear to be substantially superior from earlier technologies. In addition, enormous continuous improvement, which has accompanied both connected and disconnected new technologies appear to have played the critical role in sustaining the evolution of civilization. The paper discusses a number of policy implications and suggests topics for future research.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125388963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For strategic purposes of setting price and productivity targets, organisations need to make projection of long-term cost as well as short-term cost estimation. For long-term cost estimation, organisations do rely on the experience curve among other methodologies. However, for short-term cost estimation, organisations rely more on cost accounting, budgeting and engineering approaches. Why? This paper discusses major obstacles of using experience curve and develops an alternative concept of annualised experience curve. The annualised experience curve enables the estimation of current unit cost for the next period simply as function of the growth rate of the next period's production volume over that of the current period. Thus, the annualised experience curve offers a viable alternative to other time-based percentage forecasting methods in use. When the annualised experience curve is used, it will likely bring an added benefit of including more experts from production and marketing areas in the process of cost estimation.
{"title":"Making Strategic Short-Term Cost Estimation by Annualized Experience Curve","authors":"Yu Sang Chang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1344150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1344150","url":null,"abstract":"For strategic purposes of setting price and productivity targets, organisations need to make projection of long-term cost as well as short-term cost estimation. For long-term cost estimation, organisations do rely on the experience curve among other methodologies. However, for short-term cost estimation, organisations rely more on cost accounting, budgeting and engineering approaches. Why? This paper discusses major obstacles of using experience curve and develops an alternative concept of annualised experience curve. The annualised experience curve enables the estimation of current unit cost for the next period simply as function of the growth rate of the next period's production volume over that of the current period. Thus, the annualised experience curve offers a viable alternative to other time-based percentage forecasting methods in use. When the annualised experience curve is used, it will likely bring an added benefit of including more experts from production and marketing areas in the process of cost estimation.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117010416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-05-25DOI: 10.1504/IJTLID.2008.021968
D. Ernst
This paper explores how innovation offshoring gives rise to Global Innovation Networks (GINs) in the electronics industry. The focus is on chip design. The paper documents the scope of offshoring and the progress achieved in the complexity of design stages and in capability upgrading in Asia. The paper explores the forces that are responsible for the organisational and geographical mobility of innovation within GINs emphasising their systemic nature. The paper argues that innovation offshoring is likely to accelerate Asia's transformation from the 'global factory' model to 'upgrading through innovation'. But massive challenges must be mastered before Asia's leading electronics exporting countries can exploit these opportunities. Such challenges result from the very demanding requirements that locations need to fulfil in order to qualify for R&D investments by Transnational Corporations (TNCs).
{"title":"Innovation Offshoring and Asia's Electronics Industry - The New Dynamics of Global Networks","authors":"D. Ernst","doi":"10.1504/IJTLID.2008.021968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTLID.2008.021968","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores how innovation offshoring gives rise to Global Innovation Networks (GINs) in the electronics industry. The focus is on chip design. The paper documents the scope of offshoring and the progress achieved in the complexity of design stages and in capability upgrading in Asia. The paper explores the forces that are responsible for the organisational and geographical mobility of innovation within GINs emphasising their systemic nature. The paper argues that innovation offshoring is likely to accelerate Asia's transformation from the 'global factory' model to 'upgrading through innovation'. But massive challenges must be mastered before Asia's leading electronics exporting countries can exploit these opportunities. Such challenges result from the very demanding requirements that locations need to fulfil in order to qualify for R&D investments by Transnational Corporations (TNCs).","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125577246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Agricultural exports from developing countries are facing stringent barriers in the form of sanitary and phytosanitary measures as well as technical barriers: the need of the hour, therefore, is to develop robust Agricultural Exporting Zones (AEZs) to promote organic cultivation of exportable produce. Our analysis of the future growth potential of AEZs in India is based on two planks: a theoretical cost benefit analysis and a case study approach. The theoretical cost benefit analysis highlights the trade-off between factors that enhance profitability on the one hand and others that lead to a reduction in profitability. The case study approach complements this theoretical analysis by looking at the ground reality of AEZs in the Indian state of West Bengal. The case study shows that practical considerations such as the lack of marketing alternatives; the monopoly enjoyed by agricultural exporters; lack of market information and institutionalised communication channels between exporters and farmers; the scarcity of suitable variable inputs such as organic manure as well as the absence of storage infrastructure adversely impact the bargaining power of farmers in negotiating prices for their produce. The study therefore implies that the theoretically plausible trade-off often does not exist in reality. From the point of view of profitability, cultivation of organic crops is often clearly unattractive compared to non-organic cultivation, given the institutional ground reality prevalent in India. This important conclusion in turn leads to the policy recommendation that for a take-off in agricultural exports, which are becoming increasingly organic in composition, the following have to be effected - improvement in marketing information channels (computerised information, radio and television bulletins etc.), development of storage infrastructure (cold storages, warehouses etc.) and greater and cheaper availability of inputs needed for organic agriculture.
{"title":"Do India's AEZs Need a Fresh Start?","authors":"S. Mitra, K. Ghosh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1139068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1139068","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural exports from developing countries are facing stringent barriers in the form of sanitary and phytosanitary measures as well as technical barriers: the need of the hour, therefore, is to develop robust Agricultural Exporting Zones (AEZs) to promote organic cultivation of exportable produce. Our analysis of the future growth potential of AEZs in India is based on two planks: a theoretical cost benefit analysis and a case study approach. The theoretical cost benefit analysis highlights the trade-off between factors that enhance profitability on the one hand and others that lead to a reduction in profitability. The case study approach complements this theoretical analysis by looking at the ground reality of AEZs in the Indian state of West Bengal. The case study shows that practical considerations such as the lack of marketing alternatives; the monopoly enjoyed by agricultural exporters; lack of market information and institutionalised communication channels between exporters and farmers; the scarcity of suitable variable inputs such as organic manure as well as the absence of storage infrastructure adversely impact the bargaining power of farmers in negotiating prices for their produce. The study therefore implies that the theoretically plausible trade-off often does not exist in reality. From the point of view of profitability, cultivation of organic crops is often clearly unattractive compared to non-organic cultivation, given the institutional ground reality prevalent in India. This important conclusion in turn leads to the policy recommendation that for a take-off in agricultural exports, which are becoming increasingly organic in composition, the following have to be effected - improvement in marketing information channels (computerised information, radio and television bulletins etc.), development of storage infrastructure (cold storages, warehouses etc.) and greater and cheaper availability of inputs needed for organic agriculture.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131795647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Disagreements persist on whether the Korean and Taiwanese economic miracle is export-led as advocated by market fundamentalists or investment-led as envisioned by the market interventionists. The Granger causality test has been conducted within the context of a VAR system comprised of exports, investment, imports and GDP. The test results show that the fundamentalists' version is more compatible with the data than the interventionists'.
{"title":"The East Asian Miracle: Export-led or Investment-led?","authors":"Y. Yoo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1119164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1119164","url":null,"abstract":"Disagreements persist on whether the Korean and Taiwanese economic miracle is export-led as advocated by market fundamentalists or investment-led as envisioned by the market interventionists. The Granger causality test has been conducted within the context of a VAR system comprised of exports, investment, imports and GDP. The test results show that the fundamentalists' version is more compatible with the data than the interventionists'.","PeriodicalId":347047,"journal":{"name":"KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129148017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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