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Current Development of Tourism and Recreation on Baltic Sea Coasts: New Directions and Perspectives (Presentation Slides) 波罗的海沿岸旅游和娱乐的当前发展:新的方向和前景(幻灯片)
Pub Date : 2013-11-27 DOI: 10.31223/osf.io/ptj4r
Polina Lemenkova
Research work analyzes current situation and development of tourism in the region of Baltic Sea. Specific case study of this paper is Pärnu Bay, Estonia. This region is known for unique environmental settings: mild maritime climate, broad beaches, coniferous pine forests on the coastal zone and high esthetic value of the surrounding landscapes. However, after the end of USSR, Estonia survived a difficult period of re-structuring of economic and social system. This affected touristic cluster, rapidly developing in new directions. Soviet touristic areas became abandoned and re-constructed, new hotels are being actively created, intensive privatization of recreation houses is actively ongoing. Main problem in the touristic cluster in Estonia consists in its specific location on the Baltic Sea with cold climate in summer period. It causes low popularity among tourists, comparing to Mediterranean. Another problem consists in ongoing development of the country, reflected in low investments into tourism, comparing to other European countries. Therefore, the main perspective for the tourism development in Estonia includes active redirection towards eco-style sustainable tourism: camping, biking, sea side recreation, construction of summer cottages for vacations, organized tours to Natural Parks. This paper, supported by fieldwork, has analytical character reviewing current Estonian tourism dynamics. Sociopolitical effects on current tourism directions are discussed, while modern touristic system in Estonia compared to Soviet. The overview of the recreation resort places was performed in Häädemeeste municipality, Pärnu district, and resulted in series of thematic author photos. The research was performed at the University of Tartu.
研究工作分析了波罗的海地区旅游业的现状和发展。本文的具体案例研究是爱沙尼亚Pärnu湾。该地区以其独特的环境而闻名:温和的海洋性气候,广阔的海滩,沿海地区的针叶松林和周围景观的高审美价值。然而,在苏联解体后,爱沙尼亚度过了经济和社会制度重组的艰难时期。受此影响,旅游集群迅速向新的方向发展。苏联的旅游区被废弃和重建,新的酒店正在积极创建,娱乐场所的密集私有化正在积极进行。爱沙尼亚旅游集群的主要问题在于其在波罗的海的特殊位置,夏季气候寒冷。与地中海相比,它在游客中的受欢迎程度较低。另一个问题在于该国正在进行的发展,这反映在与其他欧洲国家相比,对旅游业的投资较少。因此,爱沙尼亚旅游业发展的主要方向包括积极转向生态风格的可持续旅游:露营、骑自行车、海边娱乐、建造夏季度假小屋、组织自然公园之旅。本文在实地考察的基础上,对爱沙尼亚当前的旅游动态进行了分析性的回顾。讨论了社会政治对当前旅游方向的影响,同时将爱沙尼亚的现代旅游系统与苏联进行了比较。在Häädemeeste市Pärnu区对休闲度假场所进行了概述,并产生了一系列主题作者照片。这项研究是在塔尔图大学进行的。
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引用次数: 0
Testing Solow's Implications on the Effective Development Policy 检验索洛对有效发展政策的启示
Pub Date : 2013-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2373350
Hyeok Jeong
The core of the neoclassical growth theory is the capital investment. Solow proposed that the diminishing return is key to such growth process in establishing the stability of the equilibrium growth path. This key postulation has critical implications on the sustainable and effective development policy, suggesting the importance of productivity and human capital in both steady-state and capital-driven transitional growth. This paper suggests a novel way to test the diminishing return assumption and confirmed its strong presence using the Penn World Tables version 8.0 data, hence validates Solows implications on effective development policies.
新古典增长理论的核心是资本投资。索洛提出,在建立均衡增长路径的稳定性时,收益递减是这种增长过程的关键。这一关键假设对可持续和有效的发展政策具有重要意义,表明生产力和人力资本在稳态和资本驱动的过渡增长中的重要性。本文提出了一种新的方法来检验收益递减假设,并使用Penn World Tables version 8.0的数据证实了它的强大存在性,从而验证了索洛对有效发展政策的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates? 我们能预测未来长期犯罪率吗?
Pub Date : 2013-08-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2307350
Yu Sang Chang, C. Choi
Can we predict long-term crime rates? In this paper, we offer the use of simple experience curve models as an alternative forecasting method. We use the experience curve models to project total crime and violent crime rates in 2030 for 50 individual states and Washington D.C. in the United States. Results are encouraging in that projection models developed from historical data for respective states show, in general, high values of R2 over .85. Our projected crime rates show both increasing trends as well as declining trends compared to 2010. A large variation among individual states is due to highly variable experience curve slopes we estimated across respective states.
我们能预测长期犯罪率吗?在本文中,我们提供了使用简单的经验曲线模型作为替代预测方法。我们使用经验曲线模型来预测2030年美国50个州和华盛顿特区的总犯罪率和暴力犯罪率。结果令人鼓舞的是,根据各自州的历史数据开发的预测模型显示,总体而言,R2高于0.85的高值。与2010年相比,我们预测的犯罪率既有上升趋势,也有下降趋势。个体状态之间的巨大差异是由于我们在各自状态中估计的高度可变的经验曲线斜率。
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引用次数: 2
Stronger Property Rights Enforcement Does Not Hurt Social Welfare - A Comment on Gonzalez’ 'Effective Property Rights, Conflict and Growth (JET, 2007)' 强化产权执法不会损害社会福利——评冈萨雷斯的《有效产权、冲突与增长》(JET, 2007)
Pub Date : 2013-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2282387
Y. Yoo
In his recent paper in JET, Gonzalez (2007) issues a warning that gradual improvement in property rights enforcement may sometimes backfire and hurt social welfare through its unintended instigation of appropriative activities. By introducing a new property-rights parameter within the Gonzalez’ growth model, however, this note reinstates the monotone relationship between property rights and social welfare discredited by Gonzalez.
Gonzalez(2007)在其最近发表于《JET》的论文中警告说,产权执法的逐步改善有时可能会适得其反,并通过无意中煽动占用活动而损害社会福利。然而,通过在冈萨雷斯的增长模型中引入一个新的产权参数,本文恢复了产权与社会福利之间的单调关系,这一关系被冈萨雷斯所否定。
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引用次数: 0
When Will the Millennium Development Goal on Infant Mortality Rate Be Realized? Projections for 21 OECD Countries Through 2050 关于婴儿死亡率的千年发展目标何时实现?21个经合组织国家到2050年的预测
Pub Date : 2013-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2252404
Yu Sang Chang, Jinsoo Lee, Hyuk Ju Kwon
Background: Reduction of under-five year mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 compared to 1990 level has been adopted as Target 4A in the Millennium Development Goals. Since infant deaths account for over seventy percents of under-five year mortality, the same two-thirds reduction Target of infant mortality rate (IMR) will be a prerequisite for achieving the Target 4A. Methods: We develop classical and kinked experience curve equations as our models to project IMR for 21 OECD countries for 2015 and 2050 We also use projected IMR by the UN and by the U.S. Census Bureau for comparison. Findings: Our projection indicates that only two countries will meet the reduction goal by 2015. However, all but four countries will achieve the garget by 205'3 On the other hand, projections by UN and the U.S. Census are more pessimistic in that only seven or four countries are expected to meet the target by 2050. Conclusion: We have demonstrated that the kinked experience curve model may be a useful alternative projection methodology. The results from all three projection methodologies suggest that each country may need a comprehensive review of its policy and programs of infant mortality control for major improvement.
背景:到2015年将五岁以下儿童死亡率在1990年的基础上降低三分之二已被采纳为千年发展目标的具体目标4A。由于婴儿死亡占五岁以下儿童死亡率的70%以上,同样将婴儿死亡率降低三分之二的目标将是实现具体目标4A的先决条件。方法:我们开发了经典和扭结经验曲线方程作为模型,预测21个经合组织国家2015年和2050年的人口流动比率。我们还使用联合国和美国人口普查局的预测人口流动比率进行比较。研究结果:我们的预测表明,到2015年只有两个国家能达到减排目标。然而,到2050年,除了四个国家之外,所有国家都将实现这一目标。另一方面,联合国和美国人口普查的预测更为悲观,预计到2050年只有七到四个国家能实现这一目标。结论:我们已经证明扭结经验曲线模型可能是一种有用的替代投影方法。所有三种预测方法的结果表明,每个国家可能需要全面审查其控制婴儿死亡率的政策和方案,以取得重大改进。
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引用次数: 1
Intergovernmental Transfer and the Flypaper Effect – Evidence from Municipalities/Regencies in Indonesia 政府间转移支付和蝇纸效应——来自印度尼西亚市政/县的证据
Pub Date : 2012-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2065638
Younguck Kang, Dhani Setyawan
The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the impact of the Intergovernmental transfer (Balance Fund) and Local Own Revenue to the local government expenditure as well as to know the occurrence of flypaper effect phenomenon in the relationship between those variables. This study is performed in two parts, firstly, using cross section data of 188 municipalities and regencies from 2006 to 2008, and secondly, using panel data of 484 Regencies and Municipalities during 2001 to 2008. The study showed that, firstly, Balance Fund and Local Own Revenue both partially and simultaneously have a significant impact on Local Government Expenditure. Second, the effect of Local Own revenue on Local Expenditure is stronger than the effect of Balance Fund. This proves the non-occurrence of flypaper effect in the local government response to the central government transfer fund.
本研究的目的是识别和分析政府间转移支付(余额基金)和地方自有收入对地方政府支出的影响,并了解这些变量之间的关系中是否出现了蝇纸效应现象。本研究分为两部分,一是利用2006 - 2008年188个地市的截面数据,二是利用2001 - 2008年484个地市的面板数据。研究表明:第一,平衡基金和地方自有收入对地方政府支出既有部分影响,又有同时影响;第二,地方自有收入对地方支出的影响强于平衡基金的影响。这证明了地方政府对中央财政转移支付资金的反应不存在“蝇纸效应”。
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引用次数: 5
How Will Openness to External Knowledge Impact Service Innovation? Evidence from Korean Service Sector 对外知识开放如何影响服务创新?来自韩国服务业的证据
Pub Date : 2011-12-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1976896
Seongwuk Moon
I examine whether firms’ openness improves innovative performance of the firms and what factors make the openness more effective in generating innovation. Using 2006 Korean Innovation Survey in service sector, I test whether openness improves innovative performance and how absorptive capacity, new startup and use of appropriation methods influence the effect of openness on Korean service firms’ innovation respectively. I find the following: First, the effect of openness varies depending on type of innovation. Openness is more effective for radical innovation than for incremental innovation. Second, there is complementarity between openness and R&D intensity when innovation is radical. When the R&D intensity level is high, the effect of openness becomes stronger. However, there is no complementarity when innovation is incremental. Third, openness is more effective for a new startup to perform radical innovation than incremental innovation. Fourth, when a firm uses too many appropriation methods, openness is not effective for innovation.
我考察了企业的开放性是否提高了企业的创新绩效,以及哪些因素使开放性更有效地产生创新。本文利用2006年韩国服务业创新调查,检验了开放是否能提高创新绩效,以及吸收能力、新创企业和使用拨款方法分别如何影响开放对韩国服务企业创新的影响。研究发现:第一,创新类型不同,开放的效果也不同。开放对于突破性创新比渐进式创新更有效。第二,当创新处于激进状态时,开放程度与研发强度之间存在互补性。研发强度水平越高,开放效应越强。然而,当创新是渐进式时,就不存在互补。第三,开放性对新创企业进行突破性创新比渐进式创新更有效。第四,当企业使用过多的拨款方式时,开放不利于创新。
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引用次数: 0
Time is Money: A Natural Field Experiment on How a Non-Monetary Timely Feedback System Motivates Volunteers 时间就是金钱:一个非货币性及时反馈系统如何激励志愿者的自然现场实验
Pub Date : 2011-11-29 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2033631
Xiaoye Li
A natural field experiment is designed to explore the crowding effects of a timely feedback system on voluntary contributions according to their original dominant motivation (intrinsic/extrinsic). This paper finds crowding-in effect of a one-way timely feedback for both types of volunteers. However, a two-way timely feedback has a detrimental effect for intrinsic volunteers (crowding-out), while enhances extrinsic volunteers’ performance (crowding-in). Furthermore, the crowding effect is robust to those aware of the feedback in advance or with access to the median score. These findings show the significance of original dominant motivation, since it will affect the change rate of intrinsic/extrinsic motivation.
设计了一个自然现场实验,探讨了及时反馈系统对自愿捐款的拥挤效应,根据自愿捐款的原始主导动机(内在/外在)。本文发现两种类型的志愿者都存在单向及时反馈的挤进效应。然而,双向及时反馈对内在志愿者(挤出)有不利影响,而对外在志愿者(挤入)有促进作用。此外,拥挤效应对那些提前知道反馈或获得中位数分数的人具有鲁棒性。这些发现显示了原始优势动机的重要性,因为它会影响内在/外在动机的变化率。
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引用次数: 0
Toward Greater Pragmatism? China's Approach to Innovation and Standardization 走向更实用主义?中国的创新和标准化之路
Pub Date : 2011-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2742918
D. Ernst
Why China’s approach mattersOnly a few years ago, China’s approach to innovation and standardization barely played a role in international economic diplomacy. With its economic power on the rise, that assessment has changed dramatically. Today, China’s innovation policy and its perceived threat to American innovation and competitiveness are a hot topic in U.S.-China economic relations, adding further to contentious disputes about exchange rates, trade, and foreign direct investment. The role of standardization, together with intellectual property rights and government procurement, are at the center of this conflict.As the United States and China display fundamental differences in their levels of development and in their economic institutions, they pursue quite different approaches to standards and innovation policy. The American consensus is that market forces and the private sector should play a primary role in innovation and standardization. China, on the other hand, relies much more on the government to define the strategic objectives and key parameters.In the United States, there is a widespread expectation that further reforms of China’s standards system will “naturally” converge to (almost) full compliance with a U.S.-style, market-led, voluntary standards system. That expectation can be found, for instance, in the “United States Standards Strategy,” approved by the Board of Directors of the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) on December 8, 2005, which proposes a “universal application of the globally accepted principles for development of global standards” which is based on the U.S. voluntary standards system.Limited ConvergenceYet, as documented in a new study , China’s evolving standards system provides little evidence that convergence to the American system is likely to materialize. When Chinese reformers argue for a transition to a more market-driven standards system, they emphasize that the government will continue to play an important role as a promoter, enabler, and coordinator of an integrated standards and innovation policy.
就在几年前,中国的创新和标准化方法在国际经济外交中几乎没有发挥作用。随着中国经济实力的上升,这种评估发生了巨大变化。今天,中国的创新政策及其对美国创新和竞争力的威胁是美中经济关系中的一个热门话题,进一步加剧了有关汇率、贸易和外国直接投资的争议。标准化的作用,以及知识产权和政府采购,是这场冲突的中心。由于美国和中国在发展水平和经济制度方面存在根本差异,两国在制定标准和创新政策方面的做法也大不相同。美国人的共识是,市场力量和私营部门应该在创新和标准化中发挥主要作用。另一方面,中国更多地依靠政府来确定战略目标和关键参数。在美国,人们普遍期望中国标准体系的进一步改革将“自然地”向(几乎)完全符合美国式的、市场主导的、自愿的标准体系靠拢。例如,这种期望可以在2005年12月8日由美国国家标准协会(ANSI)董事会批准的“美国标准战略”中找到,该战略提出“普遍应用全球公认的原则来制定全球标准”,该原则以美国自愿标准体系为基础。有限的趋同然而,正如一项新的研究所记录的那样,中国不断发展的标准体系几乎没有证据表明,与美国体系的趋同可能会成为现实。当中国的改革者主张向更加市场化的标准体系过渡时,他们强调政府将继续发挥重要作用,作为综合标准和创新政策的推动者、推动者和协调者。
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引用次数: 7
Access of Firms to Public Procurement in Russia in the 2000s: Before and After Radical Reform of Regulation 2000年代俄罗斯企业参与公共采购的机会:监管激进改革前后
Pub Date : 2011-06-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1918158
A. Yakovlev, O. Demidova
This paper considers the consequences of public procurement reform in Russia in 2005-2006. We show that before the reform, manufacturing firms with government stakes, old firms and larger firms had advantages in access to government orders. In 2009 large firms retain their advantages in access to government orders. Estimated scales of 'kickback' in 2009 were virtually the same as in 2005. Active restructuring of the enterprises had no influence on the enterprises' access to government orders. We discuss the reasons for this failure of the radical reform of public procurement in Russia, and provide some policy implications.
本文考虑了2005-2006年俄罗斯政府采购改革的后果。我们发现,在改革前,政府参股的制造业企业、老企业和大企业在获得政府订单方面具有优势。2009年,大公司在获得政府订单方面保持优势。2009年“回扣”的估计规模与2005年基本相同。企业积极重组对企业获得政府订单没有影响。我们讨论了俄罗斯政府采购激进改革失败的原因,并提供了一些政策启示。
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引用次数: 15
期刊
KDI School of Public Policy & Management Research Paper Series
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