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Effects of thin-film and wafer-based photovoltaic module transparency and spectral properties on microclimate and turnip yield in agrivoltaic systems 薄膜和晶圆基光伏组件透明度和光谱特性对农业光伏系统小气候和萝卜产量的影响
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148032
Uzair Jamil, Joshua M. Pearce
Agrivoltaics is a land efficient sustainable production system that simultaneously produces food and renewable electricity while reducing environmental harm. Agrivoltaic systems alter microclimates by modifying the quantity and quality of solar radiation reaching crops, yet limited research has examined these effects for root vegetables. This study investigates the influences of photovoltaic (PV) module type, transparency, and spectral properties on radiation transmission, photosynthetically active radiation, and turnip (rutabaga) yield. This is the first known study globally to investigate agrivoltaic production of turnips. Thirteen PV module treatments, including wafer-based crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) at multiple transparency levels, were tested under outdoor conditions. Results show that crop performance depended strongly on both the shading pattern and light spectrum. Thin-film CdTe modules, which provide uniform shading, optimized yield at 50–60% transparency, while c-Si modules with non-uniform shading patterns performed best at 8% transparency. In both cases, fresh turnip biomass increased up to threefold compared to full-sun controls, underscoring the role of moderated radiation and improved microclimate in alleviating heat and light stress. Spectral effects were also evident: modules enhancing blue light transmission promoted leaf biomass, whereas green-shifted spectra suppressed root development. Extrapolation to national scale suggests agrivoltaic adoption in Canada could generate CAD$33.93B in agricultural revenue and CAD$1.98B in solar electricity sales over 25 years, while reducing over one million tonnes of carbon emissions. This work highlights how PV transparency and spectral transmission fundamentally shape crop-atmosphere interactions in agrivoltaic systems, with implications for climate-resilient food production and dual land-use strategies.
农业发电是一种土地高效的可持续生产系统,同时生产粮食和可再生电力,同时减少对环境的危害。农业光伏系统通过改变到达作物的太阳辐射的数量和质量来改变小气候,然而有限的研究已经检查了这些对根类蔬菜的影响。本研究探讨了光伏组件类型、透明度和光谱特性对辐射透射率、光合有效辐射和芜菁产量的影响。这是全球已知的第一个调查芜菁农业生产的研究。在室外条件下测试了13种光伏组件处理方法,包括不同透明度水平的晶圆基晶体硅(c-Si)和薄膜碲化镉(CdTe)。结果表明,遮光模式和光谱对作物生长性能的影响很大。提供均匀遮光的薄膜CdTe模块在50-60%透明度下的产量最佳,而具有非均匀遮光模式的c-Si模块在8%透明度下的产量最佳。在这两种情况下,新鲜萝卜的生物量都比完全日照的对照增加了三倍,强调了缓和辐射和改善小气候在减轻热和光胁迫方面的作用。光谱效应也很明显:增强蓝光透射的模块促进了叶片生物量,而绿移光谱抑制了根系发育。根据全国范围的推断,加拿大采用农业光伏发电可以在25年内产生339.3亿加元的农业收入和19.8亿加元的太阳能电力销售,同时减少100多万吨的碳排放。这项工作强调了光伏透明度和光谱传输如何从根本上塑造农业光伏系统中作物与大气的相互作用,并对气候适应型粮食生产和双重土地利用战略产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering drivers and mitigation synergies of global paddy CH4 and N2O emissions using a Bayesian Belief Network 利用贝叶斯信念网络揭示全球水稻CH4和N2O排放的驱动因素和减缓协同效应
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147994
Zijian Tang, Yifan Qin, Jiaping Lang, Tida Ge, Zhenke Zhu, Jianping Chen, Xuebin Xu
Paddy fields are a major anthropogenic source of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), yet their global trade-offs remain poorly quantified. We compiled a global paddy GHG database comprising 2589 field observations from 271 peer-reviewed studies, integrating climate, soil, management, and crop variables. Key predictors of CH4 and N2O intensity were identified using ANOVA and chi-square tests, and a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) with 12 predictors and three targets (CH4, N2O, yield) was constructed to capture conditional dependencies. Three imputation strategies, raw (no imputation), public dataset interpolation (PDI), and random forest interpolation (RFI), all showed strong validation (accuracy and F1 ≈ 0.87; log-loss = 0.34–0.62), with PDI achieving the most balanced performance. Spatial simulations demonstrated that CH4 concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, China's Yangtze Basin, and South America, while N2O risks emerged in South Asia, East Asia, and parts of Africa. Uncertainty was highest in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America due to limited data. Scenario simulations indicated modest global responses but strong regional contrasts: alternate wetting and drying (AWD) reduced CH4 high-emission risk by up to ∼30%, and combined AWD + reduced nitrogen achieved co-mitigation with greater N2O decline. Quadrant analysis showed Brazil and MENA countries exhibiting dual reductions, Asian producers (China, India, Vietnam) showing CH4–N2O trade-offs, and Sub-Saharan Africa and Uruguay showing dual increases. This probability-based framework advances meta-analysis approaches and supports climate-smart rice management.
水田是甲烷(CH4)和氧化亚氮(N2O)的主要人为来源,但它们的全球权衡仍然缺乏量化。我们编制了一个全球水稻温室气体数据库,其中包括来自271项同行评审研究的2589个实地观测结果,整合了气候、土壤、管理和作物变量。利用方差分析和卡方检验确定了CH4和N2O浓度的关键预测因子,并构建了包含12个预测因子和3个目标(CH4、N2O、产量)的贝叶斯信念网络(BBN)来捕捉条件依赖关系。原始(无插值)、公共数据集插值(PDI)和随机森林插值(RFI)三种插值策略均表现出较强的有效性(精度和F1≈0.87;log-loss = 0.34-0.62),其中PDI的性能最平衡。空间模拟结果表明,CH4主要集中在南亚、东南亚、中国长江流域和南美洲,而N2O主要出现在南亚、东亚和非洲部分地区。由于数据有限,撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲的不确定性最高。情景模拟表明,全球响应不大,但区域差异较大:交替干湿(AWD)将CH4高排放风险降低了高达30%,并且AWD +减少的氮的组合实现了与更大的N2O下降的共同减缓。象限分析显示,巴西和中东和北非国家呈现双重减少,亚洲生产国(中国、印度、越南)呈现CH4-N2O平衡,撒哈拉以南非洲和乌拉圭呈现双重增加。这种基于概率的框架推进了元分析方法,并支持气候智能型水稻管理。
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引用次数: 0
Particle effect and interaction effect of scrap tire crumb rubber on adhesion of asphalt-aggregate interface 废轮胎碎橡胶对沥青-骨料界面粘附力的颗粒效应和相互作用效应
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147959
Fusen Zheng, Zixuan Chen, Wentao Hu, Dongliang Hu, Shuxian Zhang, Jiupeng Zhang
As large-scale recycling of scrap tires into crumb rubber modified asphalt (CRMA) is promoted as a cleaner production strategy, the mechanistic of scrap tire crumb rubber at the asphalt-aggregate interface, especially under moisture condition, remains poorly understood. This study aims to elucidate the synergistic mechanisms of the particle effect (PE) and interaction effect (IE) of scrap tire crumb rubber (CR) on the interfacial adhesion performance between crumb rubber modified asphalt (CRMA) and aggregates. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), pull-off tests, and the moisture-induced shear thinning index (MISTI) test were conducted to evaluate asphalt-aggregate interfacial adhesion before and after filtration considering different CR particle sizes and contents. FTIR analysis indicated that CR selectively absorbed aromatic fractions and enhanced polarity-related signatures within CRMA. Pull-off tests and interfacial failure mode identification showed that 60-mesh CR at 10%-15% CR content achieved an optimal balance between IE enhancement and PE interference. MISTI results confirmed that CR modification reduced interfacial moisture sensitivity, whereas filtration increased it, indicating that CR particles reduce moisture-induced interfacial disturbance. Grey relational analysis (GRA) indicated that CR content act as the dominant factor influencing interfacial adhesion, while particle size act as a secondary, non-linear factor. Accordingly, 6015 CRMA was recommended as the optimal combination. The findings in this study elucidate the mechanisms governing an enhancement in CRMA-aggregate interfacial adhesion and provide theoretical guidance for the design and application of high-performance CRMA mixtures.
随着大规模回收废轮胎制成橡胶改性沥青(CRMA)作为一种清洁生产策略的推广,废轮胎橡胶屑在沥青-骨料界面的机理,特别是在潮湿条件下的机理仍然知之甚少。本研究旨在阐明废轮胎橡胶屑(CR)的颗粒效应(PE)和相互作用效应(IE)对橡胶屑改性沥青(CRMA)与集料界面粘附性能的协同作用机制。采用傅里叶变换红外光谱(FTIR)、拉脱试验和湿致剪切减薄指数(MISTI)试验,在考虑不同CR粒径和含量的情况下,对过滤前后沥青-骨料界面粘附性能进行了评价。FTIR分析表明,CR选择性地吸收了芳香族组分,增强了CRMA中的极性相关特征。拉脱试验和界面破坏模式识别表明,当CR含量为10% ~ 15%时,60目CR达到了IE增强和PE干扰的最佳平衡。MISTI结果证实,CR改性降低了界面的水分敏感性,而过滤则增加了界面的水分敏感性,表明CR颗粒减少了水分引起的界面干扰。灰色关联分析(GRA)表明,CR含量是影响界面粘附的主导因素,而粒径是次要的非线性因素。因此,推荐6015 CRMA为最佳组合。本研究结果阐明了CRMA-骨料界面粘附增强的机理,为高性能CRMA混合料的设计和应用提供了理论指导。
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引用次数: 0
Operationalizing scale-specific thresholds for watershed sustainability: Ecological-social-economic coupling coordination in China's Guishui River Basin 流域可持续性特定尺度阈值的可操作性:中国桂水河流域生态-社会-经济耦合协调
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148029
Ye Liu, Hualin Li, Shouhong Zhang
Sustainable watershed governance requires navigating critical thresholds in the coordination of ecological-social-economic systems (ESES) across various scales. However, actionable frameworks to operationalize these thresholds remain limited. This study, focusing on China's Guishui River Basin (GRB), develops an integrated approach to identify scale-specific critical thresholds and translate them into targeted governance strategies. We harmonized multi-source spatial data—covering ecological, social, and economic dimensions—across three scales (grid, sub-watershed, and township). Spatial Durbin modeling (SDM) and segmented regression were applied synergistically to quantitatively identify the dominant drivers of coupling coordination (CCD) and their associated thresholds that trigger significant state transitions. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the GRB exhibit high ecological subsystem functionality, while the central region demonstrates stronger socio-economic subsystem values. The average CCD values for the ESES in the GRB were 0.557 at the grid scale, 0.679 at the sub-watershed scale, and 0.633 at the township scale. Spatially, the overall CCD pattern was high in the central-northern region and low in the eastern, southern, and south-central regions. Factors influencing CCD and their thresholds varied by scale: number of governments (124), technological innovation (36), and human activity (0.21) at the grid scale; slope (4.32°), human activity (0.11), and precipitation (746 mm) at the sub-watershed scale; and technological innovation (22), number of governments (102), and fractional vegetation cover (0.73) at the township scale. Based on these findings, we recommend governance strategies for areas with lower coupling coordination and propose integrated management policies tailored to the three scales. This framework provides an empirical pathway to convert multi-scale thresholds into precise governance, enhancing watershed resilience in the GRB, while also offering an adaptable methodological framework for analyzing scale-dependent thresholds in watersheds globally facing similar sustainability challenges.
可持续流域治理需要跨越不同尺度协调生态-社会-经济系统(ESES)的关键阈值。然而,实施这些门槛的可操作框架仍然有限。本研究以中国的桂水河流域为研究对象,开发了一种综合方法来确定特定规模的临界阈值,并将其转化为有针对性的治理策略。我们协调了涵盖生态、社会和经济维度的多源空间数据——跨越三个尺度(网格、子流域和乡镇)。空间Durbin建模(SDM)和分段回归(segmented regression)协同应用,定量识别耦合协调(CCD)的主要驱动因素及其触发重大状态转换的相关阈值。研究结果表明,GRB北部和东部具有较高的生态子系统功能,而中部具有较强的社会经济子系统价值。栅格尺度下GRB ESES的平均CCD值为0.557,小流域尺度下为0.679,乡镇尺度下为0.633。从空间上看,CCD总体格局呈现中北部高、东部、南部和中南部低的格局。影响CCD及其阈值的因素因尺度而异:在网格尺度上,政府数量(124)、技术创新(36)和人类活动(0.21);小流域尺度上的坡度(4.32°)、人类活动(0.11)和降水(746 mm);乡镇尺度上的技术创新(22)、政府数量(102)和植被覆盖度(0.73)。基于这些发现,我们为耦合协调较低的地区推荐了治理策略,并提出了适合三个尺度的综合管理政策。该框架提供了将多尺度阈值转化为精确治理的经验途径,增强了GRB流域的复原力,同时也为分析全球面临类似可持续性挑战的流域尺度相关阈值提供了适应性方法框架。
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引用次数: 0
Shaping social norms to promote individual response behavior in public crises: An agent-based modeling approach 塑造社会规范以促进公共危机中的个人反应行为:基于主体的建模方法
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148014
Li Qiu, Wenhan Feng, Fengqin Li, Han Wang, Xingyi Wu
The discharge of treated nuclear wastewater from Japan into the Pacific Ocean in 2023 triggered widespread public concern and highlighted the urgent need to understand how social norms shape individual behavioral responses during environmental crises. Existing studies often treat behavioral expectations as static, overlooking their dynamic evolution under different policy conditions. This study constructs an agent-based model, VIBE (Visible and Interconnected Behavioral Expectations), to simulate how empirical expectations (EE, expectations about what other community members will do) and normative expectations (NE, expectations about what other community members think one ought to do) co-evolve and influence individual behavior across different stages of crisis response. Based on post-crisis survey data from 11 coastal provinces in China, the model tests three types of interventions implemented by governmental authorities, including behavioral visibility enhancement, indirect tie expansion, and direct behavioral prompts. The results show that: (i) direct behavioral prompts can increase response rates by up to 40% in the short term, but their effects diminish rapidly after withdrawal. (ii) Interventions combining visibility enhancement with indirect tie expansion sustain long-term behavioral participation, maintaining a response rate more than 20% higher even after the intervention ends. (iii) NE exerts a more stabilizing influence than EE in shaping individual decisions, with stronger NE dominance increasing response rates by about 10% in the baseline scenario. These findings provide theoretical and practical insights for designing behavioral intervention strategies during environmental crises by leveraging evolving social norms.
2023年,日本将处理过的核废水排放到太平洋引发了公众的广泛关注,并突显出迫切需要了解社会规范如何影响环境危机期间的个人行为反应。现有研究往往将行为预期视为静态的,忽视了其在不同政策条件下的动态演变。本研究构建了一个基于主体的模型VIBE(可见和相互关联的行为期望),以模拟经验期望(EE,对其他社区成员将做什么的期望)和规范期望(NE,对其他社区成员认为自己应该做什么的期望)如何在危机反应的不同阶段共同演变并影响个人行为。基于危机后中国11个沿海省份的调查数据,该模型测试了政府当局实施的三种干预措施,包括行为可见性增强、间接联系扩张和直接行为提示。结果表明:(1)直接行为提示在短期内可使反应率提高40%,但退出后效果迅速下降。(ii)结合能见度增强和间接联系扩展的干预措施维持了长期的行为参与,即使在干预结束后,反应率也保持在20%以上。(iii)在塑造个人决策方面,东北网比情感表达具有更稳定的影响,在基线情景中,东北网的优势更强,反应率提高了约10%。这些发现为利用不断演变的社会规范设计环境危机期间的行为干预策略提供了理论和实践见解。
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引用次数: 0
Green upcycling of jet fuel precursors via hydrothermal liquefaction of plasma-pretreated cellulosic materials over an Fe–alkaline catalyst 利用铁碱性催化剂对等离子体预处理的纤维素材料进行水热液化,实现喷气燃料前驱体的绿色升级回收
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148035
Lei Liu, Shanshan Shao, Xiaohua Li, Shiliang Wu
This study developed a green and integrated hydrothermal liquefaction process for efficiently converting cellulosic materials into ketone-based aviation fuel precursors. To address issues such as low hydrolysis efficiency and weak catalytic activity during biomass hydrothermal conversion, dielectric barrier discharge non-thermal plasma pretreatment was employed, combined with an Fe/NaHCO3 synergistic catalytic system to regulate the reaction microenvironment and enhance product selectivity. First, plasma pretreatment utilizes high-energy electrons and active particles to disrupt the crystalline regions and hydrogen bonding network of cellulose, significantly reducing its crystallinity and exposing more reactive hydroxyl sites, thereby improving the hydrolysis and conversion efficiency of cellulose under hydrothermal conditions. Experimental results showed that after DNTP pretreatment at 12 kV for 15 min, the relative peak area of ketone products from cellulose increased by 28.2% compared to the untreated sample under hydrothermal conditions of 260 °C for 30 min. Furthermore, the introduction of NaHCO3 together with Fe formed a synergistic catalytic system. The alkalinity of NaHCO3 effectively neutralizes organic acids generated during liquefaction, eliminating H+ poisoning of Fe active sites, while promoting the conversion of Fe into highly active Fe3O4 and enhancing the Fe3+/Fe2+ redox cycle. This suppresses intermediate condensation and coking, thereby improving the selectivity and carbon efficiency of ketone synthesis. Using holocellulose derived from rapeseed straw as feedstock, a ketone selectivity of 60.7% was achieved at an Fe-NaHCO3 mixing ratio of 1:1. This process is characterized by its green nature, high efficiency, and ease of catalyst recovery, offering a promising technological pathway for the production of sustainable aviation fuels from biomass.
本研究开发了一种绿色综合水热液化工艺,可有效地将纤维素材料转化为酮基航空燃料前体。针对生物质水热转化过程中水解效率低、催化活性弱的问题,采用介质阻挡放电非热等离子体预处理,结合Fe/NaHCO3协同催化体系调节反应微环境,提高产物选择性。首先,等离子体预处理利用高能电子和活性粒子破坏纤维素的结晶区域和氢键网络,显著降低纤维素的结晶度,暴露出更多活性羟基位点,从而提高纤维素在水热条件下的水解转化效率。实验结果表明,DNTP预处理12 kV、15 min后,在260℃、30 min的水热条件下,纤维素酮产物的相对峰面积比未处理样品增加了28.2%。NaHCO3的引入与Fe形成了协同催化体系。NaHCO3的碱性有效中和了液化过程中产生的有机酸,消除了Fe活性位点的H+中毒,同时促进了Fe向高活性Fe3O4的转化,增强了Fe3+/Fe2+的氧化还原循环。这抑制了中间缩合和结焦,从而提高了酮合成的选择性和碳效率。以菜籽秸秆合成的全新纤维素为原料,在Fe-NaHCO3比为1:1的条件下,酮类选择性为60.7%。该工艺具有绿色、高效、催化剂回收方便等特点,为生物质生产可持续航空燃料提供了一条有前景的技术途径。
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引用次数: 0
New insights into divalent metal ions removal by sludge-derived porous carbon: Thermal evolution and synergistic adsorption at multi-active sites 污泥衍生多孔碳去除二价金属离子的新见解:多活性位点的热演化和协同吸附
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147992
Wenping Zhang, Shihao Zhang, Liang He, Yihao Li, Yong Wen, Zilian Liu, Rongrong Miao, Huajing Zhou, Xiaoyong Deng
Converting industrial solid wastes into efficient adsorbents for heavy metal ions via thermal processing represents a promising yet challenged strategy, often limited by low efficiency, complex mechanisms, and undefined inter-site interactions. Herein, a Ca/Al/Si-rich paper mill sludge (PS) was transformed into a multiple active sites-coordinated porous carbon (PSC850) via controlled high-temperature activation. Despite micropore collapse above 750 °C, high-temperature treatment promoted CaCO3 decomposition into reactive Ca(OH)2, CaS and exposed α-Al2O3/α-SiO2 phases, establishing a hierarchical adsorption mechanism dominated by chemical precipitation, ion exchange, and surface complexation. PSC850 achieved maximum adsorption capacities of 1063.0, 252.6, and 247.6 mg g−1 for Pb2+, Cu2+, and Cd2+ in single-ion systems, respectively, with near-complete removal across pH 3-6. In competitive multi-component systems, Pb2+ and Cu2+ retain high capacities (290.1 and 214.0 mg g−1), overcoming persistent limitations of site masking and pH limitations of conventional solid waste-derived adsorbents.
通过热处理将工业固体废物转化为重金属离子的有效吸附剂是一种有前途但充满挑战的策略,通常受到低效率、复杂机制和不确定的位点间相互作用的限制。本文以富Ca/Al/ si造纸厂污泥(PS)为研究对象,通过可控高温活化将其转化为多活性位点配位多孔碳(PSC850)。尽管在750℃以上微孔坍塌,但高温处理促进CaCO3分解为活性Ca(OH)2、Ca和暴露α-Al2O3/α-SiO2相,建立了以化学沉淀、离子交换和表面络合为主的分级吸附机制。PSC850在单离子体系中对Pb2+、Cu2+和Cd2+的最大吸附量分别为1063.0、252.6和247.6 mg g−1,在pH值3-6范围内几乎完全去除。在竞争性多组分系统中,Pb2+和Cu2+保持高容量(290.1和214.0 mg g - 1),克服了传统固体废物来源吸附剂的位置掩蔽和pH限制的持续限制。
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引用次数: 0
Integrate green into manufacturing? The impact of green factory certification on corporate green technology convergence in China 将绿色融入制造业?绿色工厂认证对中国企业绿色技术融合的影响
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148015
China's Green Manufacturing plays a key role in advancing the green transformation of the manufacturing sector. This study investigates whether green …
中国的绿色制造在推动制造业绿色转型中发挥着关键作用。这项研究调查了绿色是否……
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Maximising the benefits of sustainable development target interactions: An integrated priority analytical model applied to China” [J. Clean. Prod. 529 (2025) 146764] “可持续发展目标相互作用的效益最大化:一个应用于中国的综合优先级分析模型”[J]。清洁。529 (2025) 146764]
IF 11.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147997
Yuanhui Wang, Rotem Zelingher, Nikita Strelkovskii, Changqing Song, Peichao Gao
The authors regret that the funding acknowledgement was inadvertently omitted from the original article. The Acknowledgement section should be updated to include the following financial support: this work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42501359 and 42230106) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2243100014).
作者感到遗憾的是,原文章中无意中省略了资助确认。本研究得到国家自然科学基金(批准号:42501359和42230106)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(批准号:2243100014)的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Can green economic growth and carbon emission reduction coexist? A decoupling study in the energy sector 绿色经济增长与碳减排能否共存?能源领域的脱钩研究
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-10 Epub Date: 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147867
Sacha Dawid , Sergi Vinardell , César Valderrama
Decoupling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from economic growth has become a critical aspect of climate policy. This study explores the feasibility of achieving absolute decoupling in the global energy sector by 2050 under three economic and emission reduction scenarios. A dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) is conducted in the electricity and heat sub-sectors to account for supply chain emissions and evaluate discrepancies between reported and modeled emissions. The results reveal that, although certain scenarios offer the possibility of maintaining economic growth while reducing GHG emissions, transformative technological advancements and significant policy interventions are needed to achieve substantial reduction rates in both emissions and technology intensity (>10% annually). Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 appears unlikely under the current economic framework. The study highlights the complex relationship between technological innovation, policy, and growth, suggesting that relying solely on technology improvements may not be sufficient to meet energy sector climate goals. The dynamic LCA results indicate that including supply chain emissions in the electricity and heat sub-sector increases total GHG emissions by 20% in 2023. The multiregional analysis revealed strong regional disparities, with technology intensity declining by 62% in Europe and 45% in Africa since 1990. These differences are even greater between OECD and non-OECD countries, reflecting variations in access to technology, investment capacity, and policy implementation. Overall, the study demonstrates that achieving ambitious emission reductions in the energy sector is challenging without major structural changes in economic and policy frameworks, especially when considering supply chain emissions.
将温室气体排放与经济增长脱钩已成为气候政策的一个关键方面。本研究探讨了在三种经济和减排情景下,到2050年全球能源部门实现绝对脱钩的可行性。在电力和热力子行业进行动态生命周期评估(LCA),以解释供应链排放并评估报告和模拟排放之间的差异。结果表明,尽管某些情景提供了在减少温室气体排放的同时保持经济增长的可能性,但要实现排放量和技术强度的大幅降低(每年10%),需要变革性技术进步和重大政策干预。在目前的经济框架下,到2050年实现净零排放似乎不太可能。该研究强调了技术创新、政策和增长之间的复杂关系,表明仅仅依靠技术改进可能不足以实现能源部门的气候目标。动态LCA结果表明,到2023年,包括电力和热力子行业供应链排放在内的温室气体排放总量将增加20%。多区域分析揭示了强烈的区域差异,自1990年以来,欧洲和非洲的技术强度分别下降了62%和45%。这些差异在经合组织国家和非经合组织国家之间甚至更大,反映了在获得技术、投资能力和政策执行方面的差异。总体而言,该研究表明,在经济和政策框架没有重大结构性变化的情况下,特别是在考虑供应链排放时,实现能源部门雄心勃勃的减排是具有挑战性的。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Cleaner Production
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