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Urban land surface temperature prediction by integrating LSTM and geospatial information: A case study of Kunming, China 基于LSTM和地理空间信息的城市地表温度预测——以昆明市为例
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147856
Ronghui Li , Yaping Zhang , Xu Chen
The land surface temperature (LST) is a critical parameter reflecting the urban thermal environment. Accurate prediction of land surface temperature is essential for urban planning, heat island mitigation, and sustainable development. Existing models often do not capture both long-term temporal dependencies and spatial heterogeneity. This study proposes a feature-initialized spatial attention LSTM (FSA-LSTM) that integrates geospatial information to address these limitations. Key innovations include: (1) a spatial weight matrix to adaptively regulate hidden states, capturing local spatial dependencies; (2) geospatial feature-based initialization of hidden and cell states, enhancing convergence and stability; and (3) a spatial cross-attention mechanism that fuses hidden states with location information, enabling explicit interaction between model states and spatial context. When applied to old and new urban districts in Kunming, China, the FSA-LSTM outperforms baseline models, achieving R2 improvements of 13.8–38.3% and 2.9–15.5%, respectively. Further evaluations, including cross-temporal predictions, diverse geographical scenarios (e.g., varying dominant land cover types, high altitudes, and sparse vegetation), and cross-regional experiments across 34 representative regions nationwide, indicate that FSA-LSTM exhibits strong transferability, robustness, and generalizability. Overall, the proposed FSA-LSTM provides a mechanistically informed, accurate, and scalable tool for urban thermal environment monitoring and management.
地表温度是反映城市热环境的重要参数。准确预测地表温度对城市规划、热岛缓解和可持续发展至关重要。现有模型往往不能同时捕捉长期的时间依赖性和空间异质性。本研究提出一种整合地理空间信息的特征初始化空间注意力LSTM (FSA-LSTM)来解决这些限制。关键创新包括:(1)自适应调节隐藏状态的空间权重矩阵,捕获局部空间依赖性;(2)基于地理空间特征的隐状态和元状态初始化,增强收敛性和稳定性;(3)空间交叉注意机制,将隐藏状态与位置信息融合,实现模型状态与空间环境的显式交互。将FSA-LSTM应用于中国昆明的老城区和新城区,其R2分别提高了13.8-38.3%和2.9-15.5%,优于基线模型。进一步的评估,包括跨时间预测、不同的地理情景(如不同的主要土地覆盖类型、高海拔和稀疏植被),以及在全国34个代表性地区的跨区域实验,表明FSA-LSTM具有很强的可转移性、稳健性和泛化性。总体而言,所提出的FSA-LSTM为城市热环境监测和管理提供了一个机械信息、准确和可扩展的工具。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of singlehood on carbon emissions: Empirical evidence from China 单身对碳排放的影响:来自中国的经验证据
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147631
Yaqi Liu , Jing Guo
Against the backdrop of increasing consumption-based carbon emissions, mitigating household carbon emissions is crucial for achieving China's carbon reduction goals. This study investigates the impact of the household singlehood rate on per capita carbon emissions from a consumption-based perspective. Utilizing panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) encompassing 63,412 households from 2010 to 2022, our analysis demonstrates that a rising singlehood rate significantly increases per capita carbon emissions, with a baseline impact coefficient of 0.244. The impact is channeled through three mechanisms: diminished economies of scale in household public goods, insufficient sharing of domestic energy, and increased per capita consumption driven by convenience-seeking behaviors. Heterogeneity analyses uncover systematic disparities: the effect is strongest for males, rural dwellers, the youth, high-income earners and high-education singlehood households. Based on these insights, we propose targeted policy recommendations focused on leveraging learning curves, intervening at sensitive points, and implementing personal carbon budgets to systematically guide and incentivize low-carbon transitions among the singlehood population.
在以消费为基础的碳排放不断增加的背景下,减少家庭碳排放对于实现中国的碳减排目标至关重要。本研究以消费为基础,探讨家庭单身率对人均碳排放的影响。利用中国家庭面板研究(CFPS) 2010年至2022年的63412个家庭的面板数据,我们的分析表明,单身率的上升显著增加了人均碳排放量,基线影响系数为0.244。这种影响是通过三种机制产生的:家庭公共产品的规模经济减少,家庭能源共享不足,以及由便利行为驱动的人均消费增加。异质性分析揭示了系统性差异:对男性、农村居民、年轻人、高收入者和受过高等教育的单身家庭的影响最大。基于这些见解,我们提出了有针对性的政策建议,重点是利用学习曲线,在敏感点进行干预,以及实施个人碳预算,以系统地指导和激励单身人口的低碳转型。
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引用次数: 0
A multi-tier framework for CO2 storage capacity estimation: Aligning methods with data availability 二氧化碳存储容量估算的多层框架:使方法与数据可用性保持一致
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147848
Hasti Firoozmand , Yuri Leonenko
Accurate estimation of geological CO2 storage capacity is critical to the successful deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. However, the diversity of existing methods, each with distinct data requirements and assumptions, creates challenges in selecting appropriate approaches, especially during early project stages when data are sparse. This study presents a structured, six-tier framework that guides users in selecting and applying suitable estimation techniques based on the maturity of geological and operational data. The framework integrates static, analytical, and numerical methods into a progressive, adaptive structure. It enables meaningful, constraint-aware estimates at any stage of development, even when only limited inputs are available, and supports refinement as more detailed data emerge. Each tier builds upon the last by introducing increasingly advanced methods, beginning with basic volumetric estimates and advancing through pressure-constrained calculations, injectivity modeling, and full-physics dynamic simulations. At every level, the framework provides recommended parameter ranges, fallback values, and structured uncertainty bracketing to ensure transparency and methodological rigor. Initial estimates are retained and iteratively refined, yielding progressively narrower and more defensible capacity ranges. The novelty of the framework lies in its ability to generate credible CO2 storage estimates under any data condition and to guide practitioners through a clear, step-by-step method selection process. It offers a unified, scalable, and uncertainty-aware workflow that supports screening and field-scale design, bridging the gap between theoretical methods and applied project needs. The framework was validated on the Nisku Formation in Alberta, with site-wide and single-well capacity results aligning closely with published benchmarks, thereby confirming its predictive reliability. The analysis was further extended to evaluate the performance of multi-well configurations and enhancement strategies.
准确估计地质二氧化碳储存能力对成功部署碳捕集与封存(CCS)项目至关重要。然而,现有方法的多样性,每一种都有不同的数据需求和假设,在选择适当的方法方面带来了挑战,特别是在数据稀疏的项目早期阶段。本研究提出了一个结构化的六层框架,指导用户根据地质和操作数据的成熟度选择和应用合适的估计技术。该框架将静态、分析和数值方法集成到一个渐进的、自适应的结构中。它支持在任何开发阶段进行有意义的、有约束意识的评估,即使只有有限的可用输入,并且支持在出现更详细的数据时进行改进。每一层都是在上一层的基础上引入越来越先进的方法,从基本的体积估计开始,到压力约束计算、注入能力建模和全物理动态模拟。在每个级别上,框架都提供了推荐的参数范围、回退值和结构化的不确定性括号,以确保透明度和方法的严谨性。保留了最初的估计,并不断加以改进,逐渐产生更窄和更可靠的能力范围。该框架的新颖之处在于它能够在任何数据条件下生成可靠的二氧化碳储存估算,并指导从业者通过清晰、逐步的方法选择过程。它提供了一个统一的、可扩展的、不确定性感知的工作流程,支持筛选和现场规模的设计,弥合了理论方法和应用项目需求之间的差距。该框架在Alberta的Nisku地层进行了验证,整个现场和单井产能的结果与公布的基准非常吻合,从而证实了其预测的可靠性。该分析进一步扩展到评价多井配置和增产策略的性能。
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引用次数: 0
From customer needs to circular business solutions: A four-phase QFD method for product-service system conceptualization 从客户需求到循环业务解决方案:产品服务系统概念化的四阶段QFD方法
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147854
Mario Fargnoli , Massimo Tronci
The transition toward circular business models, particularly in the electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) sector, has increasingly embraced Product-Service Systems (PSS) solutions. While numerous studies support this shift and various tools and methodologies have been developed to facilitate the design and implementation of PSS, much of the existing research remains focused on defining overarching characteristics of these offerings. This emphasis often overlooks the detailed selection of PSS concepts, neglecting the companies’ capabilities and posing potential risks to effective value delivery.
This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel method, named Extended Quality Function Deployment for Product Service System (EQFDforPSS). This tool advances the benefits of conventional QFD-based approaches by integrating the analysis of PSS elements (i.e. the units that contribute to making up a product or service component) and providing a procedure for the assessment of PSS conceptual solutions. In practice, the method builds on the metrics of four different Houses of Quality (HoQs) to align customer requirements with the characteristics, components and elements of a PSS solution, offering greater granularity and specificity in identifying and structuring PSS features compared to extant tools.
Beyond its theoretical innovation, the effectiveness of the EQFDforPSS method was tested through a real case study involving the development of a PSS business offering for a photovoltaic (PV) system to be used in an urban context. These first results highlighted the relevance of PSS attributes related to improving the system's life cycle management, especially those related to customer care, maintenance, and end-of-life activities.
While acknowledging the inherent limitations of novel tools, the study confirms the viability of the proposed method for developing PSS concept models, and its practical application shows a feasible procedure to develop more circular solutions in the EEE sector.
向循环商业模式的过渡,特别是在电气和电子设备(EEE)领域,越来越多地采用了产品服务系统(PSS)解决方案。虽然许多研究支持这种转变,并且已经开发了各种工具和方法来促进PSS的设计和实施,但现有的许多研究仍然集中在定义这些产品的总体特征上。这种强调往往忽略了PSS概念的详细选择,忽视了公司的能力,并对有效的价值交付构成潜在风险。本研究提出了一种新的方法,即产品服务系统扩展质量功能部署(EQFDforPSS),以解决这一问题。该工具通过集成对PSS元素(即构成产品或服务组件的单元)的分析,并提供评估PSS概念解决方案的程序,提高了传统基于qfd的方法的优势。在实践中,该方法建立在四个不同的质量屋(HoQs)的度量上,将客户需求与PSS解决方案的特征、组件和元素结合起来,与现有工具相比,在识别和构建PSS功能方面提供了更大的粒度和特异性。除了理论创新之外,EQFDforPSS方法的有效性还通过实际案例研究进行了测试,该案例研究涉及为城市环境中使用的光伏(PV)系统开发PSS业务产品。这些最初的结果突出了与改进系统生命周期管理相关的PSS属性的相关性,特别是那些与客户关怀、维护和生命周期结束活动相关的属性。虽然承认新工具的固有局限性,但该研究证实了所提出的开发PSS概念模型的方法的可行性,其实际应用显示了在EEE领域开发更多循环解决方案的可行程序。
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引用次数: 0
When less is more: The puzzling impact of employee education on green innovation performance 当少即是多:员工教育对绿色创新绩效的令人困惑的影响
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147857
Olugbenga Michael Adewumi , Dengjun Zhang
Environmental sustainability increasingly requires that firms adopt green innovation (GI) to balance their strategy for ecological protection with financial performance. However, the role of employee education in shaping this relationship remains ambivalent. Drawing on the World Bank Enterprise Survey, which covers 8941 firms across 42 countries, we employ a two-stage least squares approach to estimate these effects. Results show that GI improves overall financial performance, though the effect is insignificant in knowledge-intensive business services and among Asian firms. Strikingly, we uncover a “less is more” dynamic that challenges proportionality assumptions in human capital theory: GI's financial performance benefits are strongest at low levels of formal employee education and decline to negligible effects as education increases. This pattern is most pronounced in low-tech manufacturing, among European firms, and in large organizations. Extending absorptive capacity theory to sustainability, this suggests that practical, adaptive skills outweigh theoretical knowledge in translating GI into performance gains. We recommend that firms balance formal education with experiential learning and hands-on implementation skills to enhance GI performance.
环境可持续性越来越要求企业采用绿色创新(GI)来平衡其生态保护战略与财务绩效。然而,员工教育在塑造这种关系中的作用仍然是矛盾的。根据涵盖42个国家8941家企业的世界银行企业调查,我们采用了两阶段最小二乘法来估计这些影响。研究结果表明,全球地理位置改善了整体财务绩效,但在知识密集型商业服务和亚洲公司中效果不显著。引人注目的是,我们发现了一个“少即是多”的动态,挑战了人力资本理论中的比例假设:GI的财务绩效效益在低水平的正式员工教育中最强,随着教育的增加而下降到可以忽略不计的程度。这种模式在低技术含量的制造业、欧洲公司和大型组织中最为明显。将吸收能力理论扩展到可持续性,这表明在将GI转化为绩效收益方面,实际的适应性技能比理论知识更重要。我们建议公司在正规教育与体验式学习和实践技能之间取得平衡,以提高GI绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic evaluation and the binary coupling driving mechanism of water resources carrying capacity: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration 水资源承载力动态评价及二元耦合驱动机制——以京津冀城市群为例
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147788
Wentao Xu , Junliang Jin , Jianyun Zhang , Zhangkang Shu , Yanli Liu , Liujun Zhu , Tiesheng Guan , Shanshui Yuan
Studying and optimizing water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) is an inevitable requirement for regional water security guarantee and sustainable development. The existing evaluation methods ignore the temporal dynamics of WRCC, and the research on the driving mechanism of WRCC is not yet comprehensive, which limits the reference value of the research results.This study constructed a new time-weighted-varying VIKOR method to assess WRCC dynamically, and based on obstacle diagnosis model and optimal parameter-based geographical detector, revealed the obstacle factor and driving factor of WRCC. A case study was carried out in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration(BTH) to verify the rationality and reliability of the method. The results show that: (1) The entropy-CRITIC method can allocate the weight more reasonably and avoid overly average or extreme weight distribution (2) Time-weighted-varying VIKOR accurately capture the dynamic change direction and rate of WRCC in each city of BTH, where Baoding has the fastest improvement rate, and Tianjin has the greatest multi-year change range. (3) The binary coupling effect of “driving-obstacle” were comprehensively deconstruct. The most significant indicator to restrict WRCC and cause spatial differentiation of driving forces of BTH is the ecological water consumption, followed by urbanization rate, per capita GDP, proportion of secondary production. These research 1results can help decision-makers understand the long-term trends of WRCC changes in the BTH, and provide a reference for optimizing regional water resource allocation and water usage structure, improving the ecological environment, adjusting the industrial structure, and optimizing the spatial layout of urban population.
研究和优化水资源承载力是区域水安全保障和可持续发展的必然要求。现有的评价方法忽略了WRCC的时间动态,对WRCC驱动机制的研究尚不全面,限制了研究成果的参考价值。本研究构建了一种新的时变VIKOR动态评价WRCC的方法,并基于障碍物诊断模型和基于最优参数的地理检测器,揭示了WRCC的障碍因素和驱动因素。以京津冀城市群为例,验证了该方法的合理性和可靠性。结果表明:(1)熵- critic方法能更合理地分配权重,避免权重分布过于平均或极值;(2)随时间加权的VIKOR能准确捕捉城市WRCC的动态变化方向和速率,其中保定改善速度最快,天津多年变化幅度最大。(3)全面解构“驾驶-障碍”二元耦合效应。生态用水量是制约水资源承载力并导致城市发展动力空间分异最显著的指标,其次是城市化率、人均GDP、二次生产比重。研究结果可帮助决策者了解京津巴带WRCC的长期变化趋势,为优化区域水资源配置和用水结构、改善生态环境、调整产业结构、优化城市人口空间布局提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Peri-dyeing: Laser dye fixation for efficient textile colouration and design 半染色:激光染色固定,用于有效的纺织品着色和设计
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147845
Laura Morgan , Jinsong Shen , Faith Kane , John Tyrer
Conventional textile dyeing remains one of the most resource-intensive stages of garment production, characterised by high water and energy use and the generation of chemically contaminated effluent. This study explores an alternative approach to conventional dyeing through the development and evaluation of a laser dyeing process termed peri-dyeing, a digitally driven, non-contact colouration technique in which dye fixation was initiated by targeted laser irradiation directly at the fibre surface.
Optimisation of laser parameters and dye application methods enabled controlled surface colouration of wool fabrics. Colour measurements, SEM imaging, and tensile strength analysis confirmed that high dye fixation efficiencies (82–96%) were achieved without compromising fibre integrity. Standardised testing demonstrated strong wash and rub colour fastness, indicating technical performance compatible with commercial textile applications. Design sampling validated the technique's ability to produce fine linear detail, smooth tonal gradients, and multicolour imagery on both flat and textured substrates.
The peri-dyeing process demonstrates the technical feasibility of a digitally controlled approach to textile colouration that avoids immersion dye baths and enables targeted dye application. The results indicate potential for reduced resource use and increased production flexibility. The paper highlights opportunities for integration into direct-to-garment and on-demand manufacturing contexts, supporting the development of more efficient and adaptable textile colouration workflows.
传统的纺织染色仍然是服装生产中资源最密集的阶段之一,其特点是高用水和能源消耗以及产生化学污染的废水。本研究探索了一种替代传统染色的方法,通过开发和评估一种被称为预染色的激光染色工艺,这是一种数字驱动的非接触式染色技术,其中染料固定是由定向激光直接照射在纤维表面开始的。激光参数和染料应用方法的优化使羊毛织物的表面着色可控。颜色测量、扫描电镜成像和拉伸强度分析证实,在不影响纤维完整性的情况下,实现了高染料固定效率(82-96%)。标准化测试表明具有很强的洗涤和摩擦色牢度,表明技术性能与商业纺织品应用相兼容。设计取样验证了该技术在平面和纹理基板上产生精细线性细节、平滑色调梯度和多色图像的能力。预染色工艺证明了数字控制纺织品染色方法的技术可行性,该方法避免了浸没染料浴,并实现了目标染料的应用。结果表明,减少资源使用和提高生产灵活性的潜力。该论文强调了整合到直接到服装和按需制造环境的机会,支持更有效和适应性更强的纺织品着色工作流程的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Clean and efficient utilization of complex tailings: Magnetic pre-enrichment, hydrogen reduction, and reverse flotation for iron recovery and fluorine removal 复杂尾矿的清洁高效利用:磁预富集、氢还原、反浮选提铁除氟
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147853
Yuanxing Yue , Yongsheng Sun , Peng Gao , Yuexin Han , Zhidong Tang
This study proposes a novel integrated process to address the challenges of iron mineral recovery from Bayan Obo tailings and the high carbon emissions associated with traditional carbon-based roasting methods. The process includes magnetic pre-enrichment, hydrogen-based mineral phase transformation (HMPT), regrinding-magnetic separation, and reverse flotation defluorination. The magnetic pre-enriched produced an iron concentrate with a grade of 26.30%. At 550 °C, with 30% H2 concentration and a reduction time of 20 min, HMPT efficiently converted hematite to magnetite. After regrinding, magnetic separation, and reverse flotation defluorination (pH 8, 50 g/t corn starch, 75 g/t NaOL/α-BLA combined collector), a high-quality iron concentrate with 68.17% Fe, 0.38% F, and 88.46% iron recovery was obtained. Mechanistic studies indicated that the phase transformation from hematite to magnetite during HMPT was accompanied by a significant increase in saturation magnetization. Additionally, microcracks generated during the reduction process facilitated gas-solid mass transfer. In the flotation system, corn starch effectively depressed magnetite through hydrogen bonding, while the combined collector achieved efficient flotation of fluorite through chemical adsorption. This process not only enables high-efficiency iron recovery and deep fluorine removal but also avoids CO2 emissions, providing a feasible and sustainable path for the clean and high-value utilization of complex coexisting resources.
本研究提出了一种新的集成工艺,以解决从巴彦鄂博尾矿中回收铁矿物的挑战,以及传统碳基焙烧方法带来的高碳排放。该工艺包括磁预富集、氢基矿物相变(HMPT)、再磨—磁选、反浮选除氟。经磁预富集后获得铁精矿品位为26.30%。在550℃、30% H2浓度和20 min还原时间下,HMPT有效地将赤铁矿转化为磁铁矿。经再磨、磁选、反浮选除氟(pH为8、玉米淀粉50 g/t、NaOL/α-BLA组合捕收剂75 g/t),可获得铁品位为68.17%、F品位为0.38%、铁回收率为88.46%的优质铁精矿。机理研究表明,HMPT过程中赤铁矿向磁铁矿的相变伴随着饱和磁化强度的显著提高。此外,在还原过程中产生的微裂纹有利于气固传质。在浮选体系中,玉米淀粉通过氢键作用有效抑制磁铁矿,组合捕收剂通过化学吸附作用实现萤石的高效浮选。该工艺不仅实现了高效的铁回收和深度除氟,而且避免了二氧化碳的排放,为复杂共存资源的清洁和高价值利用提供了一条可行的可持续途径。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring pricing strategy and remanufacturing mode in trade-in scheme under carbon cap-and-trade regulation 碳限额与交易监管下以旧换新方案的定价策略与再制造模式探讨
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147775
Fuli Zhou , Yueli Li , Saurabh Pratap , Chenchen Zhang , Ming K. Lim
Remanufacturing, owing to its advantages in resource recycling and carbon emission reduction, has evolved into a critical strategy for accelerating the achievement of net-zero emission targets. With market opportunities driven by trade-in programs that encourage consumer participation in recycling and boost the intent to buy remanufactured products, it is imperative to determine which remanufacturing models can effectively balance emission reduction costs and economic benefits under carbon cap-and-trade regulation (CATR). To tackle this issue, considering a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) under trade-in scenarios within CATR framework, this study tries to explore the pricing strategies for three remanufacturing modes (autonomous, authorization, and outsourcing remanufacturing mode) by formulating three Stackelberg game models, facilitating to discover the best selection strategy based on the comparison of optimal decisions and profits under these three modes. Research findings show that under autonomous and authorization remanufacturing mode, excessively high collection quality may lead to a decline in remanufactured product sales. However, within the outsourcing remanufacturing mode, improvements in collection quality can continuously increase the sales volume of remanufactured products. Notably, regardless of fluctuations in collection quality, carbon trading prices, and consumer acceptance of remanufactured products (CARP), the autonomous and outsourcing remanufacturing modes have consistently demonstrated superior performance compared to authorization remanufacturing mode for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and retailers. Furthermore, an increase in carbon trading price encourages OEMs to transition from outsourcing remanufacturing mode to autonomous remanufacturing mode.
再制造由于其在资源回收和减少碳排放方面的优势,已经发展成为加速实现净零排放目标的关键战略。以旧换新计划鼓励消费者参与回收利用,提高了购买再制造产品的意愿,这为市场带来了机遇。在碳限额与交易法规(CATR)下,确定哪些再制造模式能够有效地平衡减排成本和经济效益是当务之急。为解决这一问题,本研究在CATR框架下考虑以旧换新的闭环供应链,通过建立三种Stackelberg博弈模型,探讨自主、授权和外包三种再制造模式下的定价策略,通过比较三种模式下的最优决策和利润,找出最优选择策略。研究发现,在自主授权再制造模式下,过高的回收质量可能导致再制造产品销量下降。而在外包再制造模式下,回收质量的提高可以不断提高再制造产品的销量。值得注意的是,无论回收质量、碳交易价格和消费者对再制造产品(CARP)的接受程度如何波动,对于原始设备制造商(oem)和零售商而言,自主和外包再制造模式始终表现出优于授权再制造模式的性能。碳交易价格的提高促使oem从外包再制造模式向自主再制造模式转变。
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引用次数: 0
A benchmarking framework to enhance cost-efficiency in water systems resilience planning under deep uncertainty 在深度不确定性下提高水系统弹性规划成本效益的基准框架
IF 1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2026-03-05 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147850
Leyang Liu , Francesca Pianosi , Ana Mijic
The increasing variability of climate introduces significant uncertainty into water system planning, posing challenges for enhancing system resilience. Achieving cost-efficient planning outcomes, where planning can address actual pressures with optimal investment, remains a critical goal. While Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches show promise, their cost-efficiency is rarely evaluated, with post-implementation assessments remaining limited due to their long-term monitoring requirements. This study proposes a novel benchmarking framework for pre-implementation evaluation of DMDU approaches, using historical climate data to simulate the outcomes of planning decisions that could have been taken in the past under conditions of unknown future climates. The framework compares simulated outcomes to theoretical cost-optimal scenarios, providing quantitative insights into refining DMDU approaches for improved cost-efficiency. The framework is applied to a fluvial flood resilience case study in Luton, UK, focusing on the real options DMDU approach. For a proof-of-concept demonstration of the framework's utility, this case study simulates an initial refinement process that decision-makers might undertake, using simplified settings such as a fixed resilience threshold as the planning objective and undiscounted costs estimation. Results reveal that the original real options approach leads to significant underinvestment during early stages, causing substantial resilience deficits. An initial refined increases costs by 16.5% but reduces resilience deficits by 74.7% over the planning period, implying potentially improved cost-efficiency. Further refinement could iteratively benchmark different parameter configurations to identify an optimal setup. The generic benchmarking framework can further facilitate systematic comparison of diverse DMDU approaches across various water management objectives, serving as a valuable tool to improve resilience planning strategies under growing uncertainties.
气候变化的增加给水系统规划带来了重大的不确定性,对增强系统恢复力提出了挑战。实现具有成本效益的规划结果,即规划能够以最佳投资解决实际压力,仍然是一个关键目标。虽然深度不确定性下的决策(DMDU)方法显示出希望,但其成本效益很少得到评估,由于其长期监测要求,实施后的评估仍然有限。本研究提出了一个新的基准框架,用于DMDU方法的实施前评估,该框架使用历史气候数据来模拟过去在未知未来气候条件下可能采取的规划决策的结果。该框架将模拟结果与理论成本最优情景进行比较,为改进DMDU方法以提高成本效率提供定量见解。该框架应用于英国卢顿的河流洪水恢复力案例研究,重点关注实物期权DMDU方法。对于框架效用的概念验证演示,本案例研究模拟了决策者可能进行的初始细化过程,使用简化的设置,例如固定弹性阈值作为规划目标和未贴现成本估计。结果表明,原来的实物期权方法在早期阶段导致显著的投资不足,造成实质性的弹性赤字。在计划期间,最初的精炼会增加16.5%的成本,但会减少74.7%的弹性赤字,这意味着潜在的成本效率提高。进一步的细化可以迭代地对不同的参数配置进行基准测试,以确定最优设置。通用基准框架可以进一步促进跨各种水管理目标的不同DMDU方法的系统比较,作为在不确定性日益增加的情况下改进复原力规划策略的宝贵工具。
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Journal of Cleaner Production
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