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A tale of two sovereign funds: China's exceptionalism in sovereign wealth management through CIC and SAFE 两只主权基金的故事:中投和外管局主权财富管理的中国例外论
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-08-25 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10006454
Angela Cummine
China is the only country in the world with two sovereign investment vehicles dedicated to managing excess foreign reserves for return, not just safety and liquidity. As the investment profile and behaviour of both funds align with the aims of the government's economic agenda, it is tempting to view China's two sovereign funds as part of a coordinated effort to further state investment policy. However, analysis of the origin of China's multi-sovereign investor regime shows that this approach is primarily a product of intense bureaucratic rivalry within the Chinese public service, rather than a considered strategy of the sponsoring government. This rivalry had a detrimental impact on aspects of the CIC's institutional design and early investment decision making. Comparison of the CIC, China's flagship sovereign investor, to its peer Asian funds in Korea and Singapore reveals that relative to regional reserve investment corporations, the CIC lacks robust mechanisms to achieve effective arms-length governance from its state sponsor. Reforms to the Chinese sovereign fund to ensure greater clarity of mission and alignment of purpose with internal decision making would ensure Chinese exceptionalism in sovereign investment transitions from cautionary to exemplary.
中国是世界上唯一一个拥有两个主权投资工具的国家,它们致力于管理超额外汇储备以获取回报,而不仅仅是安全和流动性。由于这两只基金的投资状况和行为与政府经济议程的目标一致,人们很容易将中国的两只主权基金视为推进国家投资政策的协调努力的一部分。然而,对中国多主权投资者制度起源的分析表明,这种做法主要是中国公共服务部门内部激烈的官僚竞争的产物,而不是赞助政府深思熟虑的策略。这种竞争对中投公司的制度设计和早期投资决策产生了不利影响。将中国的旗舰主权投资者中投公司与韩国和新加坡的亚洲同行基金进行比较表明,与地区储备投资公司相比,中投公司缺乏强有力的机制,无法从其国家赞助商那里实现有效的公平治理。对中国主权基金进行改革,以确保其使命更加明确,目标与内部决策保持一致,这将确保中国主权投资的例外主义从警示转变为典范。
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引用次数: 0
Chinese state owned enterprises: an observer's guide 中国国有企业:观察者指南
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-08-25 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10006452
P. Hubbard, P. Williams
Not all of China's SOEs have evolved equally. To understand modern SOEs the paper contrasts the giant centrally owned firms in the energy and utilities sectors under the control of the central state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) in Beijing - some of which have financial resources comparable to medium-sized countries - with the tens of thousands of provincially and locally owned SOEs that have survived reform with various degrees of state ownership and across all sectors. The paper finds that giant central SOEs may be politically important to Beijing, but most SOEs are provincial and local businesses operating in competitive, rather than monopolistic, environments. Instead of dealing with SOEs as a class, the challenge for policymakers is to deal with market structures that undermine competition, and to regulate socially harmful behaviour, irrespective of the ultimate owner of the capital involved.
并非所有中国国有企业都有同样的发展。为了理解现代国有企业,本文将北京中央国有资产监督管理委员会(SASAC)控制下的能源和公用事业领域的大型中央企业与改革后幸存下来的数万家省级和地方国有企业进行了对比,其中一些企业的财政资源与中等国家相当拥有不同程度的国家所有制和所有部门。论文发现,大型中央国有企业对北京来说可能具有重要的政治意义,但大多数国有企业都是在竞争而非垄断环境中运营的省级和地方企业。政策制定者面临的挑战不是将国有企业作为一个阶级来处理,而是处理破坏竞争的市场结构,并监管对社会有害的行为,而不管所涉及资本的最终所有者是谁。
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引用次数: 2
Australia's foreign investment approval regime: a new way forward 澳大利亚的外国投资审批制度:一条新的前进道路
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-08-25 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10006458
A. Lumsden, Lizzie Knight
Australia's national interest is well-served by having a foreign investment regime that has the right balance between flexibility and certainty. One highly successful aspect of that policy has been the ability to use conditional approvals to ensure that applicants behave in a manner that is consistent with the national interest. The government's new legislation is an ambitious and important attempt to modernise the 40-year old foreign investment rules. We consider the new legislation successfully builds on the system including a conditional approval regime that has been improved to reflect best regulatory practices and support ongoing investment.
拥有一个在灵活性和确定性之间取得适当平衡的外国投资制度,很好地符合澳大利亚的国家利益。该政策的一个非常成功的方面是能够使用有条件的批准来确保申请人的行为符合国家利益。政府的新立法是一项雄心勃勃的重要尝试,旨在使已有40年历史的外国投资法规现代化。我们认为,新立法成功地建立在现有制度的基础上,包括一个经过改进的有条件批准制度,以反映最佳监管实践并支持正在进行的投资。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative study of cross-border mergers and acquisitions by privately- and state-owned enterprises 民营企业与国有企业跨国并购比较研究
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-08-25 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10006457
Michael Gestrin
This paper empirically examines the proposition that SOE and POE cross-border investments are different. It does so by comparing all M&A by SOEs and POEs (with a value greater than USD 5 million) undertaken between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2013. This amounts to more than 200,000 deals collectively valued at USD 50 trillion. The main objective is to identify differences in the ways that privately-owned and state-owned enterprises expand into international markets using M&A, a primary vehicle for international direct investment.
本文实证检验了国有企业和POE跨境投资不同的命题。它通过比较1996年1月1日至2013年12月31日期间国有企业和私营企业(价值超过500万美元)进行的所有并购来做到这一点。这相当于20多万笔交易,总价值50万亿美元。主要目标是确定私营企业和国有企业利用并购(国际直接投资的主要工具)进入国际市场的方式差异。
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引用次数: 0
Australia's foreign investment policy: an historical perspective 澳大利亚的外国投资政策:一个历史的视角
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-08-25 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.086051
Christopher J Pokarier
Why did Australia, historically open to overseas capital, turn to restrictive policy in the early 1970s, only to significantly liberalise again from the mid-1980s? Furthermore, why has the regulatory apparatus of Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), established in the illiberal mid-1970s, been little changed over the last four decades, despite a return to relative openness? The paper finds that the initial illiberal turn arose from the changing sectoral and country-of-origin mix of foreign investment, a less liberal domestic and international ideational climate FDI, and from oppositional policy entrepreneurship. Liberalisation followed growing external imbalances, elite neo-liberal ideational change and transformative public leadership. The FIRB mechanism placated populist economic nationalist sentiment while allowing liberal policy in general, yet also tailored to the public and private interest logics of specific investment proposals. Remaining sectoral restrictions reflect both private interest influences and sector-specific public interest sensitivities.
为什么历史上对海外资本开放的澳大利亚在20世纪70年代初转向限制性政策,却从20世纪80年代中期开始再次大幅自由化?此外,为什么澳大利亚外国投资审查委员会(FIRB)成立于20世纪70年代中期,尽管恢复了相对开放,但其监管机构在过去四十年里几乎没有变化?论文发现,最初的不自由转向源于外国投资的部门和来源国组合的变化、国内外观念氛围的不太自由的外国直接投资,以及对立的政策创业。自由化伴随着日益严重的外部失衡、精英新自由主义思想的转变和变革性的公共领导。FIRB机制安抚了民粹主义的经济民族主义情绪,同时允许总体上的自由主义政策,但也适应了具体投资提案的公共和私人利益逻辑。剩余的部门限制既反映了私人利益的影响,也反映了特定部门的公共利益敏感性。
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引用次数: 1
Are Free Trade Agreements Making Swiss Cheese of Australia's Foreign Investment Regime? 自由贸易协定是澳大利亚外国投资制度的瑞士奶酪吗?
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-08-25 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10006449
S. Armstrong, Sam Reinhardt, Tom Westland
Until 2005, Australia's foreign investment regime treated all investment sources on a non-discriminatory basis but since then some important preferential exemptions to screening have been introduced. Bilateral deals with the USA and New Zealand more than quadrupled the threshold to A$1.078 billion for investments that must be screened by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). This represents a major liberalisation towards investment from those countries, given that a vast majority of investment is below the A$1 billion threshold. Some new rules regarding investment have also been introduced in those bilateral agreements which only apply to the signatories of those deals. The piecemeal changes to the foreign investment regime through bilateral trade and economic agreements have occurred without a clear strategy set forth and further piecemeal changes threaten to impact the operation and function of the regime with implications for confidence in Australia maintaining an open investment environment.
直到2005年,澳大利亚的外国投资制度在非歧视的基础上对待所有投资来源,但自那以后,引入了一些重要的优惠豁免审查。澳大利亚与美国和新西兰的双边协议将必须经过外国投资审查委员会(FIRB)审查的投资门槛提高了四倍多,达到10.78亿澳元。鉴于绝大多数投资低于10亿澳元的门槛,这代表着对来自这些国家的投资的重大自由化。在这些双边协定中也提出了一些关于投资的新规则,这些规则只适用于这些协定的签署国。在没有明确战略的情况下,通过双边贸易和经济协定对外国投资制度进行了零敲碎打的改变,进一步的零敲碎打的改变有可能影响该制度的运作和功能,从而影响对澳大利亚保持开放投资环境的信心。
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引用次数: 3
A strategic analysis of the Australian foreign investment regime and the prospect of reform 澳大利亚外商投资体制的战略分析及改革前景
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-08-25 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10006456
R. Mendelsohn, A. Fels
Australia's foreign investment regime arguably has four primary objectives. Its purpose is to: facilitate the flow of inbound foreign investment; screen investment for its potential to damage the Australian national interest; reassure the Australian people that foreign investment is consistent with the national interest; educate foreign investors about Australian laws, regulations, and community standards. This paper uses a strategic framework developed by Moore (1995) at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government to assess whether Australia's foreign investment regime is delivering on its four main objectives. We ask if the regime could offer greater public value to the Australian people were changes to be made to its structure and operation. We conclude that the foreign investment regime is very far from dysfunctional. We argue, however, that more public value may accrue from bringing the regime into line with accepted principles of good governance. We also propose that additional value may be generated by creating a specialist body to educate foreign investors and provide them with ongoing assistance in adjusting to the Australian environment. We suggest that these responsibilities could, in the alternative, be readily assigned to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade consistent with its existing mandate.
澳大利亚的外国投资制度可以说有四个主要目标。其目的是:促进外国投资流入;筛选投资是否有可能损害澳大利亚国家利益;向澳大利亚人民保证,外国投资符合国家利益;教育外国投资者了解澳大利亚的法律、法规和社区标准。本文使用哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院Moore(1995)制定的战略框架来评估澳大利亚的外国投资制度是否实现了其四个主要目标。我们想知道,如果改变其结构和运作,该政权是否能为澳大利亚人民提供更大的公共价值。我们得出的结论是,外国投资制度远非功能失调。然而,我们认为,使该制度符合公认的善治原则可能会带来更多的公共价值。我们还建议,可以通过创建一个专门机构来教育外国投资者,并为他们提供持续的援助,以适应澳大利亚的环境,从而创造额外的价值。我们建议,也可以根据外交和贸易部的现有任务,随时将这些职责分配给该部。
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引用次数: 0
Emulating models of good governance: learning from the developments of the world's least corrupt countries 模仿善治模式:从世界上最不腐败国家的发展中学习
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10001689
A. Anttiroiko
This article discusses three success stories of good governance, those in Finland, New Zealand and Singapore, and their ability to serve as benchmarks or models for developing countries seeking to eradicate corruption. The analysis shows that Finland and New Zealand are evolutionary cases with low-profile anti-corruption policies, whereas Singapore is a revolutionary case with an array of institutionalised anti-corruption measures providing a fast track to good governance. At first glance the latter case may appear appealing to developing countries, but in the current economic situation the case of Singapore is difficult to replicate as diminishing growth prospects undermine the viability of this option. In this sense the balance naturally leans towards the evolutionary 'social change' model, which is a cost-effective though slow path towards good governance. Whatever the preferred development path, it is vital that developing countries emulate and adapt success stories on their own terms. This ensures a sufficient degree of ownership and justification for the context-sensitive adjustment, dissemination and implementation of new ideas for controlling corruption.
本文讨论了芬兰、新西兰和新加坡三个良好治理的成功案例,以及它们为寻求根除腐败的发展中国家提供基准或模式的能力。分析表明,芬兰和新西兰是具有低调反腐败政策的进化案例,而新加坡是具有一系列制度化反腐败措施的革命性案例,为良好治理提供了快速通道。乍一看,后一种情况似乎对发展中国家很有吸引力,但在目前的经济形势下,新加坡的情况很难复制,因为增长前景的减弱削弱了这一选择的可行性。从这个意义上说,天平自然倾向于渐进式的“社会变革”模式,这是一种成本效益高但缓慢的良政之路。无论选择哪条发展道路,至关重要的是,发展中国家必须按照自己的条件效仿和改编成功故事。这确保了充分的自主权和理由,以便根据具体情况进行调整、传播和实施控制腐败的新想法。
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引用次数: 6
How toxic is public debt 公共债务的毒性有多大
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10001691
Juhana Hukkinen, M. Virén
This paper deals with the debt-growth relationship using several time-series tools. The idea is to find out whether the inverse relationship between these variables can be detected without imposing any functional forms on the estimating relationship and whether the relationship does indeed reflect some nonlinear features. Thus recursive correlations with different orderings of the time-series are computed using the Reinhart and Rogoff panel data. After that, recursive correlations are re-estimated with data that are cyclically adjusted to reflect the structural features of the two variables. The nature of the relationship is also scrutinised using several variable-parameter estimation techniques (Kalman filter, logistic functional form and recursive estimation). Finally, some causality analyses are carried out using various transformations of the data up to the point of cross-sections of data. The analysis shows that the inverse relationship between growth and debt is indeed quite robust and tends to support the 'toxic debt' hypothesis rather than the cyclical debt accumulation hypothesis. Yet the causality issue remains largely unresolved.
本文使用几个时间序列工具来处理债务-增长关系。我们的想法是找出这些变量之间的逆关系是否可以在不给估计关系施加任何函数形式的情况下被检测出来,以及这种关系是否确实反映了一些非线性特征。因此,使用Reinhart和Rogoff面板数据计算与时间序列不同排序的递归相关性。之后,用周期性调整的数据重新估计递归相关性,以反映两个变量的结构特征。这种关系的性质也使用几种可变参数估计技术(卡尔曼滤波、逻辑函数形式和递归估计)进行了仔细研究。最后,使用数据的各种转换进行因果关系分析,直到数据的横截面点。分析表明,增长与债务之间的反向关系确实相当强劲,倾向于支持“有毒债务”假说,而不是周期性债务积累假说。然而,因果关系问题在很大程度上仍未解决。
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引用次数: 3
A MARKAL-MACRO modelling approach to estimate carbon mitigation cost in India 估算印度碳减排成本的MARKAL-MACRO建模方法
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2017.10001700
Subhash Kumar
Global climate change, energy consumption patterns and economic growth are major issues nowadays for the developing world like India. Owing to global threat of climate change, the Indian economy experiences big challenges to maintain its high growth rate if switched to the clean energy generation for environmental sustainability. In this situation, there is urgent need to formulate solid policy and account for the cost of CO2 mitigation, i.e., effect on GDP. This paper addresses these situations by using MARKAL-MACRO energy model to develop different scenarios up to the year 2045. The result show that the carbon intensity per GDP decreases 2.5% annually during the period 2005 to 2045. The marginal abatement costs vary between 14-245 US$/tC and GDP decreases from 0.12% to 2.4% for the reduction rate between 5% to 50% compared to reference case. Since economic growth remains the priority, it would be more realistic for India to make continuous efforts to reduce carbon emissions by implementing sustainable energy technologies gradually and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanism.
全球气候变化、能源消费模式和经济增长是当今印度等发展中国家面临的主要问题。由于全球气候变化的威胁,如果转向清洁能源发电以实现环境可持续性,印度经济将面临保持高增长率的巨大挑战。在这种情况下,迫切需要制定切实的政策,并考虑二氧化碳减排的成本,即对国内生产总值的影响。本文通过使用MARKAL-MACRO能源模型对2045年之前的不同情景进行了分析。结果表明,2005 ~ 2045年,我国单位GDP碳强度年均下降2.5%。边际减排成本在14-245美元/tC之间,与参考案例相比,减排率在5%至50%之间,GDP从0.12%下降到2.4%。由于经济增长仍然是优先事项,印度通过逐步实施可持续能源技术并在国际碳减缓合作机制中发挥积极作用,不断努力减少碳排放,这将是更现实的做法。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
International Journal of Public Policy
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