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Saddam Hussein’s role in the gassing of Halabja 萨达姆·侯赛因在哈拉布贾毒气事件中的作用
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1795600
David D. Palkki, Lawrence C. Rubin
Iraq’s use of chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurdish civilians in 1987 and 1988 is among the most morally troubling events in the latter half of the twentieth century. Most of the questions surrounding the attack, including why, when, and how, have been addressed in path-breaking research by Joost Hiltermann and other researchers from Human Rights Watch. However, even as more records and internal documents from the period have come to light, one question remains unresolved: Did Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s leader, directly order the gassing of Iraqi Kurds? This study reassesses the Halabja attack of 1988—in particular, Saddam’s thinking and behavior relating to the attack—in light of the post-2003 evidence. It synthesizes insights from the Iraqi records at the Conflict Records Research Center and Stanford University; debriefings of Iraqi principals, which the authors obtained in response to Mandatory Declassification Review requests; recent memoirs of Iraqi and US officials; and other previously unexplored sources. Although these records provide no direct proof that Saddam Hussein issued an explicit order to gas Halabja, it is clear he created a command environment in which the indiscriminate gassing of Iraqi Kurds was considered permissible and even desirable.
伊拉克在1987年和1988年对伊拉克库尔德平民使用化学武器是20世纪下半叶最令人不安的道德事件之一。人权观察组织的乔斯特·希特勒曼(Joost Hiltermann)和其他研究人员进行了开创性的研究,解决了围绕这次袭击的大部分问题,包括袭击的原因、时间和方式。然而,尽管那段时期的更多记录和内部文件已经曝光,但有一个问题仍未得到解决:伊拉克领导人萨达姆·侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)是否直接下令对伊拉克库尔德人使用毒气?本研究根据2003年后的证据,重新评估了1988年的哈拉布贾袭击,特别是萨达姆与袭击有关的思想和行为。它综合了来自冲突记录研究中心和斯坦福大学的伊拉克记录的见解;作者应强制性解密审查的要求获得的伊拉克负责人的情况汇报;伊拉克和美国官员最近的回忆录;以及其他以前未开发的资源。虽然这些记录没有提供直接证据证明萨达姆·侯赛因发出了对哈拉布贾使用毒气的明确命令,但很明显,他创造了一种指挥环境,在这种环境中,不分青红皂白地对伊拉克库尔德人使用毒气被认为是允许的,甚至是可取的。
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引用次数: 0
When do the Dutch want to join the nuclear ban treaty? Findings of a public opinion survey in the Netherlands 荷兰想什么时候加入禁核条约?荷兰民意调查结果
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2021.1978156
M. Onderco, Michal Smetana, Sico van der Meer, Tom Etienne
ABSTRACT Even if most European countries have not yet joined the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), the treaty has been salient in a number of national settings. In the Netherlands, the TPNW enjoys broad societal appeal, and the Dutch parliament has, on a number of occasions, called on the government to explore options for joining the treaty. In this piece, we empirically study Dutch attitudes toward joining the TPNW. Our findings indicate that a majority of the Dutch would prefer to accede to the TPNW only if nuclear-weapon states or other NATO allies also joined, although unilateral accession received relatively strong support among the youngest respondents, women, and voters supporting the left-wing parties. The most popular option is to join the TPNW at the same time that the nuclear-weapon states do, which seems to be a rather distant prospect in the current international-security environment.
摘要尽管大多数欧洲国家尚未加入《禁止核武器条约》,但该条约在许多国家都很突出。在荷兰,TPNW具有广泛的社会吸引力,荷兰议会曾多次呼吁政府探索加入该条约的选择。在这篇文章中,我们实证研究了荷兰人对加入TPNW的态度。我们的调查结果表明,只有在核武器国家或其他北约盟国也加入的情况下,大多数荷兰人才愿意加入TPNW,尽管单方面加入在最年轻的受访者、女性和支持左翼政党的选民中得到了相对强烈的支持。最受欢迎的选择是与核武器国家同时加入TPNW,在当前的国际安全环境下,这似乎是一个相当遥远的前景。
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引用次数: 7
Strategic stability and the proliferation of conventional precision strike: a (bounded) case for optimism? 战略稳定和常规精确打击的扩散:一个(有限的)乐观理由?
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-12 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1799569
D. Blagden
What are the potential deterrence advantages for new states seeking to acquire long-range conventional precision strike (LRCPS)? Using the case of Poland, this article argues that such LRCPS proliferation offers two possible deterrent benefits. First, LRCPS strengthens its possessors’ ability to threaten aggressors with costs in the form of both counterforce denial and countervalue punishment, thereby reducing dependence on great-power allies’ extended-deterrence commitments. Second, it provides a new center of retaliatory decision proximate to the threat, thereby strengthening the credibility of great-power allies’ extended-deterrence commitments. However, while LRCPS capabilities may indeed bring certain advantages, they may also exacerbate political hostilities, incentivize escalation, and lack the survivability and penetrability needed to generate the envisioned deterrence effects. Thus, the overall consequences of such proliferation for strategic stability and associated international security are ambiguous, meriting a case-by-case analysis. If LRCPS is pursued nonetheless, meanwhile, then a countervailing combination of operational and strategic measures may be employed to reduce both first-strike temptations and adversaries’ broader fears.
对于寻求获得远程常规精确打击(LRCPS)的新兴国家来说,潜在的威慑优势是什么?以波兰为例,本文认为,这种LRCPS的扩散提供了两种可能的威慑好处。首先,LRCPS增强了其拥有者威胁侵略者的能力,其代价包括反武力拒绝和反价值惩罚,从而减少了对大国盟友扩展威慑承诺的依赖。其次,它提供了一个接近威胁的新的报复决策中心,从而加强了大国盟友扩大威慑承诺的可信度。然而,尽管LRCPS能力确实可能带来某些优势,但它们也可能加剧政治敌对,刺激升级,并且缺乏产生预期威慑效果所需的生存能力和穿透性。因此,这种扩散对战略稳定和相关国际安全的总体后果是模糊的,值得逐一分析。与此同时,如果LRCPS仍在继续,那么作战和战略措施的对抗组合可能会被采用,以减少第一次打击的诱惑和对手更广泛的恐惧。
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引用次数: 1
Conventional long-range strike weapons of US allies and China’s concerns of strategic instability 美国盟友的常规远程打击武器与中国对战略不稳定的担忧
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1795368
Tong Zhao
Conventional long-range strike weapons of US allies may exacerbate Chinese concerns about the survivability of its small nuclear arsenal against a precision pre-emptive strike from the US-led coali...
美国盟友的常规远程打击武器可能会加剧中国对其小型核武库在美国领导的煤矿精确先发制人打击下的生存能力的担忧。。。
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引用次数: 8
Engaging scientists in biosecurity: lessons from the Biological Weapons Convention 让科学家参与生物安全:来自《生物武器公约》的教训
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1827840
K. Bowman, J. Husbands
ABSTRACT Major efforts to engage scientists in issues of biosecurity in the United States and internationally began in the early 2000s in response to growing concerns about terrorists using weapons of mass destruction and the mailing of anthrax-laced letters in October 2001. This article draws on the literature about the “science of science communication,” including research on framing, to examine the strategies used to try to raise awareness and create support for policies and practices to address public concerns about biosecurity issues within scientific communities. Engagement strategies framed as an inherent part of the broader social responsibilities of the scientific community have shown the promise of being more effective than those framed in terms of legal and regulatory requirements and an emphasis on security alone. The article draws on the case of the InterAcademy Partnership (IAP), the global network of academies of science and medicine, and its relationship with the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), with additional examples from other national and international scientific organizations.
为了应对恐怖分子使用大规模杀伤性武器的担忧和2001年10月寄来的带有炭疽病毒的信件,在21世纪初,美国和国际上开展了让科学家参与生物安全问题的重大努力。这篇文章利用了关于“科学传播的科学”的文献,包括关于框架的研究,来检查用于试图提高认识和为政策和实践提供支持的策略,以解决科学界对生物安全问题的公众关注。作为科学界更广泛的社会责任的固有组成部分的参与战略,已经显示出比那些仅以法律和监管要求为框架并强调安全的战略更有效的希望。这篇文章借鉴了科学院间伙伴关系(IAP)这个全球科学和医学科学院网络的案例,以及它与1972年《生物和毒素武器公约》(BWC)的关系,以及其他国家和国际科学组织的其他例子。
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引用次数: 0
The UK biological-warfare program: dual-use contributions to the field of aerobiology 英国生物战计划:对空气生物学领域的双重用途贡献
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1823621
R. J. Beedham, Carwyn Davies
ABSTRACT Between 1940 and the late 1950s, the United Kingdom had a limited biological program to provide a retaliatory capability should UK forces be attacked using biological warfare (BW). Aspects of BW defense have been investigated from 1940 up to the present day. Techniques, processes, and equipment used within biological research programs are recognized to have dual-use applications; aerobiology is one such dual-use area. Research during these offensive and defensive eras of the UK BW research program has contributed to aerobiological science, leading to a number of positive changes in some areas, including laboratory safety; understanding of infection by the aerosol route; and survival, detection, and identification of airborne pathogens. This article will discuss the historical contributions made to aerobiology science, the global contemporary legislation that governs dual-use research, and a modern case study based upon this type of investigation. The article will contribute to our understanding of the dual-use aspects of a BW program.
在1940年至1950年代末,英国有一个有限的生物计划,以便在英国军队受到生物战(BW)攻击时提供报复能力。从1940年至今,人们一直在研究生化武器防御的各个方面。生物研究项目中使用的技术、工艺和设备被认为具有双重用途;空气生物学就是这样一个两用领域。在英国生物多样性研究计划的进攻和防御时期,研究对空气生物科学做出了贡献,在一些领域导致了一些积极的变化,包括实验室安全;气溶胶途径感染的认识;以及生存,检测和鉴定空气传播的病原体。本文将讨论对空气生物学的历史贡献,管理两用研究的全球当代立法,以及基于这类调查的现代案例研究。这篇文章将有助于我们理解生化武器项目的双重用途方面。
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引用次数: 5
False allegations of biological-weapons use from Putin’s Russia 普京领导下的俄罗斯使用生物武器的虚假指控
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2021.1964755
M. Leitenberg
ABSTRACT From 1949 until 1988, the Soviet Union conducted a nearly continuous campaign of false allegations of biological-weapon (BW) use by the United States. In 1995, senior Russian military officials revived this pattern of false allegations, which continues to the present day. Russian officials amplified the campaign after the US government funded the transformation of former Soviet BW facilities in the Commonwealth of Independent States under the Nunn–Lugar program. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in China in January 2020 prompted a very greatly expanded Russian-government BW-related disinformation effort. This paper aims to present a reasonably comprehensive account of these activities and to assess their significance. The Russian government under President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated open disdain for both the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and the Chemical Weapons Convention.
摘要从1949年到1988年,苏联几乎连续不断地对美国使用生物武器进行虚假指控。1995年,俄罗斯高级军事官员恢复了这种一直持续到今天的虚假指控模式。在美国政府根据纳恩-卢格计划资助改造独立国家联合体的前苏联生物武器设施后,俄罗斯官员加大了这场运动的力度。2020年1月新冠肺炎疫情在中国爆发,促使俄罗斯政府大幅扩大了与BWA相关的虚假信息工作。本文旨在对这些活动进行合理全面的介绍,并评估其意义。弗拉基米尔·普京总统领导下的俄罗斯政府公开蔑视《生物和毒素武器公约》和《化学武器公约》。
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引用次数: 3
Introduction to the special issue in honor of Raymond A. Zilinskas 纪念Raymond A.Zilinskas特刊简介
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1889105
K. Vogel
I first met Ray Zilinskas in 1998, when I was fresh out of graduate school, a young and impressionable postdoc in the Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, as it was then known. When we were first introduced, I was a bit intimidated, as he was a well-known former bioweapons weapons inspector in Iraq, but Ray was always gracious and kind. He had a heart for students and young scholars, always welcoming newcomers into the “Monterey Mafia.” Ray also had an adventurous spirit—whether as an UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspector or visiting former Soviet bioweapons facilities and interviewing former bioweaponeers, Ray always liked being in the middle of the action on bioweapons policy issues. He held many important policyrelated posts during his career, working at the U.S. Office of Technology Assessment and the UN Industrial Development Organization, and also serving as a consultant to the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and the U.S. Department of State on matters pertaining to biological and toxin arms control, nonproliferation, and bioterrorism. Ray joined the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in 1998, and subsequently became the director of its Chemical and Biological Weapons Program. In addition to his many publications and policy engagements, Ray also took a turn in Hollywood, serving as an advisor to the FX television show The Americans, helping the writers to draft plotlines involving dangerous biological agents. I followed all of Ray’s work, particularly his writings on the Soviet biological weapons (BW) program, including the hefty tome The Soviet Biological Weapons Program: A History, co-authored with Milton Leitenberg and Jens Kuhn. Ray and I both attended an international conference at the former bioweapons facility at Stepnogorsk, Kazakhstan in 1999, when the facility was first opened to the public. I remember Ray mentioning that part of his interest in the Soviet BW program related to his own personal history; his parents were Lithuanians who had gone into exile after the Soviets invaded the country in 1940. Zilinskas was born in Estonia, raised in Sweden, and then immigrated to the United States as a teenager (never quite losing his Swedish accent). Ray worked as a clinical microbiologist for several years before going on to the University of Southern California to obtain his Ph.D. in international relations. His dissertation focused on security policy issues raised by genetic engineering. From the start, his work was engaged with the security and ethical issues raised by advances in the life sciences.
我第一次见到Ray Zilinskas是在1998年,当时我刚从研究生院毕业,是蒙特利国际研究所防扩散研究中心化学和生物武器防扩散项目的一名年轻而易受影响的博士后。当我们第一次被介绍时,我有点害怕,因为他是伊拉克著名的前生物武器检查员,但雷总是和蔼可亲。他对学生和年轻学者情有独钟,总是欢迎新加入“蒙特里黑手党”。雷也有冒险精神——无论是担任联合国特别委员会(UNSCOM)检查员,还是访问前苏联生物武器设施并采访前生物武器制造者,雷总是喜欢参与生物武器政策问题的行动。在他的职业生涯中,他担任过许多重要的政策相关职位,曾在美国技术评估办公室和联合国工业发展组织工作,还担任过美国军备控制与裁军机构和美国国务院关于生物和毒素军备控制、不扩散和生物恐怖主义问题的顾问。雷于1998年加入防扩散研究中心,随后成为该中心化学和生物武器项目的主任。除了许多出版物和政策活动外,雷还转投好莱坞,担任FX电视节目《美国人》的顾问,帮助编剧起草涉及危险生物制剂的情节。我关注了雷的所有作品,特别是他关于苏联生物武器计划的著作,包括与米尔顿·莱滕贝格和延斯·库恩合著的巨著《苏联生物武器项目:历史》。1999年,当该设施首次向公众开放时,雷和我都参加了在哈萨克斯坦斯捷普诺戈尔斯克的前生物武器设施举行的一次国际会议。我记得雷提到,他对苏联BW项目的兴趣部分与他自己的个人历史有关;他的父母是立陶宛人,1940年苏联入侵立陶宛后流亡海外。Zilinskas出生在爱沙尼亚,在瑞典长大,十几岁时移民到美国(从未完全失去瑞典口音)。雷在进入南加州大学获得国际关系博士学位之前,曾做过几年临床微生物学家。他的论文主要研究基因工程引发的安全政策问题。从一开始,他的工作就涉及生命科学进步带来的安全和伦理问题。
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引用次数: 0
Twentieth-century nonproliferation meets twenty-first-century biotechnology 二十世纪的防扩散与二十一世纪的生物技术
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1819690
Kavita M. Berger, Rocco J. Casagrande
ABSTRACT This article explores emerging science and technology advances relevant to the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), and existing and needed frameworks for their identification, risk assessment, and evaluation of benefit. Threats from biological weapons continue to be a major concern as state and non-state actors have developed, used, or expressed interest in these types of weapons. International nonproliferation instruments and related efforts in health security, specifically the 2005 International Health Regulations and the 2014 Global Health Security Agenda, recognize deliberate biological incidents as one of three threats to address (the others being natural and accidental biological events). To date, these instruments and their subsequent regional and national-level implementation efforts focus primarily on pathogens and toxins as biological threat agents. Unlike the other instruments, the BWC focuses on preventing the diversion of peaceful and prophylactic uses of biology to the development, production, stockpiling, or dissemination and delivery of biological weapons. Accordingly, the BWC recognizes the importance of scientific and technological advances in enabling different actors to develop or disseminate biological agents, altering the risk profile of deliberate biological threats. To identify and discuss advances that may affect implementation of the BWC, the US National Academy of Sciences and the BWC Implementation Support Unit conducted or sponsored several activities to explore science and technologies that may be most relevant to the BWC. However, the biotechnology landscape continues to change drastically, expanding the focus of security risks beyond pathogens and toxins to include other biological data and materials, such as synthetic organisms. Factors promoting the development of biotechnology capabilities include new funders and funding models, practitioners from other disciplines leveraging the tools of biology, new nations investing in the biological sciences, and research leveraging advances in engineering, computer, data, materials, physical, and chemical sciences. These advances may reveal new capabilities that significantly alter biological nonproliferation efforts, including both new security threats and benefits to society.
本文探讨了与1972年《禁止生物和毒素武器公约》(BWC)相关的新兴科学和技术进展,以及现有和需要的识别、风险评估和利益评估框架。由于国家和非国家行为体已经开发、使用或表达了对这类武器的兴趣,来自生物武器的威胁仍然是一个重大关切。国际防扩散文书和卫生安全方面的相关努力,特别是2005年《国际卫生条例》和2014年《全球卫生安全议程》,确认蓄意生物事件是需要解决的三种威胁之一(其他两种是自然和意外生物事件)。迄今为止,这些文书及其随后在区域和国家一级的执行工作主要侧重于作为生物威胁物的病原体和毒素。与其他文书不同,《禁止生物武器公约》的重点是防止将生物的和平与预防性用途转用于发展、生产、储存或传播和运载生物武器。因此,《禁止生物武器公约》认识到科技进步在使不同行为体能够研制或传播生物制剂、改变蓄意生物威胁的风险状况方面的重要性。为确定和讨论可能影响《生物武器公约》实施的进展,美国国家科学院和《生物武器公约》实施支持小组开展或赞助了若干活动,探索可能与《生物武器公约》最相关的科学和技术。然而,生物技术的前景继续急剧变化,将安全风险的焦点从病原体和毒素扩大到包括其他生物数据和材料,如合成生物体。促进生物技术能力发展的因素包括新的资助者和资助模式,利用生物学工具的其他学科的从业者,投资生物科学的新国家,以及利用工程、计算机、数据、材料、物理和化学科学方面的进步的研究。这些进步可能揭示出新的能力,显著改变生物防扩散努力,包括新的安全威胁和对社会的益处。
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引用次数: 0
The covert battlefield: Doctor Witaszek, the WKZO, and the Polish use of biological and chemical warfare against the Third Reich 秘密战场:Witaszek博士,WKZO,以及波兰对第三帝国使用生物和化学战争
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2020.1866321
R. Petersen
ABSTRACT During World War II, the Polish resistance movement used chemical and biological weapons (CBW) against the Third Reich. The use of CBW against the Third Reich most likely originated in a secret Polish biological-weapons program, which existed in the 1930s and went underground after the September 1939 German invasion. Between 1940 and 1942, a unit of the Polish resistance movement named WKZO (Wielkopolskie Kierownictwo Związku Odwetu—the Greater Poland Leadership of the Union of Retaliation) conducted CBW sabotage in the German-annexed area Reichsgau Wartheland and its main city Posen (today’s Poznań). By investigating the use of CBW by the WKZO until its destruction in 1942, it is possible to demonstrate how these weapons were made and used. The article also describes the German reaction, including what defensive measures the German high command took to meet the threat of CBW.
摘要第二次世界大战期间,波兰抵抗运动对第三帝国使用了化学和生物武器。对第三帝国使用CBW很可能源于波兰的一个秘密生物武器计划,该计划存在于20世纪30年代,并在1939年9月德国入侵后转入地下。1940年至1942年间,波兰抵抗运动的一支名为WKZO的部队(Wielkopolskie Kierownictwo Zwińzku Odwetu——报复联盟的大波兰领导层)在德国吞并区Reichsgau Wartheland及其主要城市波森(今天的波兹南)进行了CBW破坏活动。通过调查WKZO在1942年销毁CBW之前使用CBW的情况,可以证明这些武器是如何制造和使用的。文章还描述了德国的反应,包括德国最高司令部为应对CBW的威胁而采取的防御措施。
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引用次数: 0
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