Pub Date : 2018-10-19DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2019.096686
Michael T. Todinov
The method of self-reinforcement has been introduced as a domain-independent method for improving reliability and reducing risk. A key feature of self-reinforcement is that increasing the external/internal forces intensifies the system's response against these forces. As a result, the driving net force towards precipitating failure is reduced. In many cases, the self-reinforcement mechanisms achieve remarkable reliability increase at no extra cost. Two principal ways of self-reinforcement have been identified: reinforcement by capturing a proportional compensating factor and reinforcement by using feedback loops. Mechanisms of transforming forces and motion into self-reinforcing response have been introduced and demonstrated through appropriate examples. Mechanisms achieving self-reinforcement response by self-aligning, self-anchoring and self-balancing have also been introduced. For the first time, the potential of positive feedback loops to achieve self-reinforcement and risk reduction was demonstrated. In this respect, it is shown that self-energising, fast growth and fast transition provided by positive feedback loops can be used with success for achieving reliability improvement. Finally, a classification was proposed of methods and techniques for reliability improvement and risk reduction based on the method of self-reinforcement.
{"title":"Reliability improvement and risk reduction through self-reinforcement","authors":"Michael T. Todinov","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2019.096686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2019.096686","url":null,"abstract":"The method of self-reinforcement has been introduced as a domain-independent method for improving reliability and reducing risk. A key feature of self-reinforcement is that increasing the external/internal forces intensifies the system's response against these forces. As a result, the driving net force towards precipitating failure is reduced. In many cases, the self-reinforcement mechanisms achieve remarkable reliability increase at no extra cost. Two principal ways of self-reinforcement have been identified: reinforcement by capturing a proportional compensating factor and reinforcement by using feedback loops. Mechanisms of transforming forces and motion into self-reinforcing response have been introduced and demonstrated through appropriate examples. Mechanisms achieving self-reinforcement response by self-aligning, self-anchoring and self-balancing have also been introduced. For the first time, the potential of positive feedback loops to achieve self-reinforcement and risk reduction was demonstrated. In this respect, it is shown that self-energising, fast growth and fast transition provided by positive feedback loops can be used with success for achieving reliability improvement. Finally, a classification was proposed of methods and techniques for reliability improvement and risk reduction based on the method of self-reinforcement.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46392331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-06DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093763
L. Soeteman-Hernández, E. Hogendoorn, J. Bakker, F. V. Broekhuizen, N. Palmen, Y. B. D. Bruin, M. Kooi, D. Sijm, T. Traas
This paper illustrates a comprehensive and systematic approach for the identification of new or emerging risks of chemicals (NERCs) for workers, consumers and the environment. The methodology illustrated here is composed of three steps: 1) signal identification; 2) signal evaluation and prioritisation and when necessary; 3) assessing follow-up actions for further risk management measures. During signal identification, new information with regard to adverse effects induced by the potential NERC is gathered using various information sources. Based on collected additional information, the causality between chemical exposure and the adverse effect is evaluated and prioritised. Finally, for those NERCs where there is sufficient proof of the causality with an adverse effect or the need for action, an analysis of possible appropriate regulatory risk management options is made. With this approach, NERCs can be efficiently identified with timely recommendations of follow-up steps, to reduce or eliminate the risk of the substance.
{"title":"An approach to identify, prioritise and provide regulatory follow-up actions for new or emerging risks of chemicals for workers, consumers and the environment","authors":"L. Soeteman-Hernández, E. Hogendoorn, J. Bakker, F. V. Broekhuizen, N. Palmen, Y. B. D. Bruin, M. Kooi, D. Sijm, T. Traas","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093763","url":null,"abstract":"This paper illustrates a comprehensive and systematic approach for the identification of new or emerging risks of chemicals (NERCs) for workers, consumers and the environment. The methodology illustrated here is composed of three steps: 1) signal identification; 2) signal evaluation and prioritisation and when necessary; 3) assessing follow-up actions for further risk management measures. During signal identification, new information with regard to adverse effects induced by the potential NERC is gathered using various information sources. Based on collected additional information, the causality between chemical exposure and the adverse effect is evaluated and prioritised. Finally, for those NERCs where there is sufficient proof of the causality with an adverse effect or the need for action, an analysis of possible appropriate regulatory risk management options is made. With this approach, NERCs can be efficiently identified with timely recommendations of follow-up steps, to reduce or eliminate the risk of the substance.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"248"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093763","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45874633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-06DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014974
T. Berger, Werner Gleißner
The success of a company basically depends on the quality of entrepreneurial decisions taken by the executives, which means that the systems and tools for preparing such decisions are critical success factors for the quality of decisions itself. A company's management systems and especially its procedures for preparing decisions therefore must be in a position to enable the decision makers to weigh possible returns against the associated risks as only focusing on the returns could lead to misjudgements. By doing so, it is necessary to not only predict the possible implications of a decision on the company's future earnings, but also on the rating grade and on the company's value as a measure of success. When a decision is being prepared, their effects on enterprise value and rating grade must be made transparent as part of the decision-making. We argue that this is done best by means of integrated management systems which, in particular, link management control and risk management. The methodology behind are simulations based on the risks analysed and modelled in the context of the planning.
{"title":"Integrated management systems: linking risk management and management control systems","authors":"T. Berger, Werner Gleißner","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014974","url":null,"abstract":"The success of a company basically depends on the quality of entrepreneurial decisions taken by the executives, which means that the systems and tools for preparing such decisions are critical success factors for the quality of decisions itself. A company's management systems and especially its procedures for preparing decisions therefore must be in a position to enable the decision makers to weigh possible returns against the associated risks as only focusing on the returns could lead to misjudgements. By doing so, it is necessary to not only predict the possible implications of a decision on the company's future earnings, but also on the rating grade and on the company's value as a measure of success. When a decision is being prepared, their effects on enterprise value and rating grade must be made transparent as part of the decision-making. We argue that this is done best by means of integrated management systems which, in particular, link management control and risk management. The methodology behind are simulations based on the risks analysed and modelled in the context of the planning.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"215"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46809638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-06DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014967
Jianhong E. Mu, B. McCarl
We compared the economic consequences of imposing quarantine with and without adding vaccination in controlling avian influenza (AI) outbreaks. We evaluated the benefits using a partial equilibrium, US agricultural sector model and found that the strategies were not significantly different in their benefits if consumer demand was not reduced by concerns over the outbreak. However, we did find impacts differed when the outbreak was associated with a consumer demand reduction. Specifically, under a scenario where consumers reduced demand by 20%, the quarantine with vaccination strategy was found to dominate the quarantine only strategy. In contrast, we found the quarantine only strategy was relatively more cost-effective when there was no demand reduction.
{"title":"Economic impacts of avian influenza disease control strategies in the USA due to Texas outbreaks","authors":"Jianhong E. Mu, B. McCarl","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014967","url":null,"abstract":"We compared the economic consequences of imposing quarantine with and without adding vaccination in controlling avian influenza (AI) outbreaks. We evaluated the benefits using a partial equilibrium, US agricultural sector model and found that the strategies were not significantly different in their benefits if consumer demand was not reduced by concerns over the outbreak. However, we did find impacts differed when the outbreak was associated with a consumer demand reduction. Specifically, under a scenario where consumers reduced demand by 20%, the quarantine with vaccination strategy was found to dominate the quarantine only strategy. In contrast, we found the quarantine only strategy was relatively more cost-effective when there was no demand reduction.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"205"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44104650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-06DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093743
P. J. G. Díez, C. R. Palmero
We prove that, in standard insurance markets, rational agents have an incentive to choose as subjective probabilities those incurring in an optimism bias, since they imply real and objective net gains. Our agent-based model of insurance markets thus clarifies how rational optimism naturally appears and persists in insurance markets, opening up the possibility to explain the optimism bias observed in other environments on the basis of the theory of salient perturbations. Our findings are consistent with the empirical evidence showing a systematic and coherent moderate optimism bias of agents in the assessment of probabilities.
{"title":"An agent-based model of rational optimism","authors":"P. J. G. Díez, C. R. Palmero","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093743","url":null,"abstract":"We prove that, in standard insurance markets, rational agents have an incentive to choose as subjective probabilities those incurring in an optimism bias, since they imply real and objective net gains. Our agent-based model of insurance markets thus clarifies how rational optimism naturally appears and persists in insurance markets, opening up the possibility to explain the optimism bias observed in other environments on the basis of the theory of salient perturbations. Our findings are consistent with the empirical evidence showing a systematic and coherent moderate optimism bias of agents in the assessment of probabilities.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"155-183"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093743","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45232475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-06DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014975
Alok Pandey, P. Rawat, A. U. Sonawane
Industrial gamma radiography utilises appropriate radioisotopes housed in the radiography devices which provide shielding from the ionising radiations, for imaging of the weld joints and castings. The radiography devices are operated manually by rotating the control unit to project the gamma source outside the shielding, in a projection sheath. Deviation from the standard operating procedures or malfunctioning of the gamma radiography equipment may result in potential exposure to occupational workers. Probabilistic safety assessment has been carried out to calculate the probabilities of potential exposure to occupational workers in industrial gamma radiography practice in India. Fault trees have been designed for failure assessment of radiation area monitoring instruments, the functionality of which is crucial to ensure safe industrial gamma radiography operations. Operational procedures leading to the potential exposure scenarios have been sequenced in the event tree. The probability of most severe potential exposure category is calculated as 3.506E-04 for open field radiography operations and slightly lower value of 1.293E-04 for enclosed radiography operations. Assessment results identify the contributory factors to potential exposure, along with their relative contribution. Results indicate that probability of potential exposure can be reduced by adopting safe work practice by operators and responsible attitude of radiological safety officers towards trainees and untrained persons.
{"title":"Risk assessment in the industrial radiography practice in India using probabilistic approach","authors":"Alok Pandey, P. Rawat, A. U. Sonawane","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014975","url":null,"abstract":"Industrial gamma radiography utilises appropriate radioisotopes housed in the radiography devices which provide shielding from the ionising radiations, for imaging of the weld joints and castings. The radiography devices are operated manually by rotating the control unit to project the gamma source outside the shielding, in a projection sheath. Deviation from the standard operating procedures or malfunctioning of the gamma radiography equipment may result in potential exposure to occupational workers. Probabilistic safety assessment has been carried out to calculate the probabilities of potential exposure to occupational workers in industrial gamma radiography practice in India. Fault trees have been designed for failure assessment of radiation area monitoring instruments, the functionality of which is crucial to ensure safe industrial gamma radiography operations. Operational procedures leading to the potential exposure scenarios have been sequenced in the event tree. The probability of most severe potential exposure category is calculated as 3.506E-04 for open field radiography operations and slightly lower value of 1.293E-04 for enclosed radiography operations. Assessment results identify the contributory factors to potential exposure, along with their relative contribution. Results indicate that probability of potential exposure can be reduced by adopting safe work practice by operators and responsible attitude of radiological safety officers towards trainees and untrained persons.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"232"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46162662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-06DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014962
M. Phadtare, A. Gosavi, T. Ganguli
This paper identifies risk factors and suggests their mitigation in small and micro construction firms undertaking repairs and modernisation projects in residential houses. It uses a case study approach with a combination of work breakdown structure and fault tree analysis to identify risk factors in repairs and modernisation projects. Fifty two risk factors have been identified. Risk factors such as damage to household goods during shifting, injury to the labourers during shifting household goods, damage to household goods during packing, damage to household goods during unpacking and accidents during shifting of household goods have been found typical for small to micro construction firms involved in repairs and modernisation of residential houses. The suggested risk treatment reflects the lite version of project management and is validated by discussing with construction professionals and owners of small and micro construction firms. Risk retention, risk sharing and risk prevention are recommended for treatment of risks. This study is qualitative in nature and its scope is limited to Indian context only.
{"title":"Risk management in small and micro construction firms undertaking repairs and modernisation of residential houses: a case of India","authors":"M. Phadtare, A. Gosavi, T. Ganguli","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10014962","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies risk factors and suggests their mitigation in small and micro construction firms undertaking repairs and modernisation projects in residential houses. It uses a case study approach with a combination of work breakdown structure and fault tree analysis to identify risk factors in repairs and modernisation projects. Fifty two risk factors have been identified. Risk factors such as damage to household goods during shifting, injury to the labourers during shifting household goods, damage to household goods during packing, damage to household goods during unpacking and accidents during shifting of household goods have been found typical for small to micro construction firms involved in repairs and modernisation of residential houses. The suggested risk treatment reflects the lite version of project management and is validated by discussing with construction professionals and owners of small and micro construction firms. Risk retention, risk sharing and risk prevention are recommended for treatment of risks. This study is qualitative in nature and its scope is limited to Indian context only.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66700899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-09DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011305
I. Ryabinin, A. Strukov
The article presents examples of solving the tasks of analysis of safety of complex technical systems by using logical-probabilistic methods (LPM). LPM are characterised by sufficient visualisation and simplicity of formalisation of the hazardous state of the object in the form of the shortest paths of hazardous state or hazardous state scenario. Parametric representation of logical functions (Boolean sum and products of initiating events and initiating conditions) is carried out using the methods of orthogonalisation. Determination of individual and total contribution of events in probability of realisation of a dangerous condition can allow you to plan the activities to ensure the safety state of the object. In this article the examples are being solved with the use of ARBITR software.
{"title":"Quantitative examples of safety assessment using logical-probabilistic methods","authors":"I. Ryabinin, A. Strukov","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011305","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents examples of solving the tasks of analysis of safety of complex technical systems by using logical-probabilistic methods (LPM). LPM are characterised by sufficient visualisation and simplicity of formalisation of the hazardous state of the object in the form of the shortest paths of hazardous state or hazardous state scenario. Parametric representation of logical functions (Boolean sum and products of initiating events and initiating conditions) is carried out using the methods of orthogonalisation. Determination of individual and total contribution of events in probability of realisation of a dangerous condition can allow you to plan the activities to ensure the safety state of the object. In this article the examples are being solved with the use of ARBITR software.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47828978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-09DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011312
Shahid Rasheed, Faiza Yaqub, Changfeng Wang, S. Memon, B. D. Lucena
Macro environments acquire ever more significance in the growing business worlds. Whereas the industrial enterprises assume greater controls in managing their internal environs, the evident responsibility of governments is to regulate the business surrounding risks, to optimise the external environments, and to deliver poses that are conducive to business. In such context, this paper presents a specialised approach – Risk Leveling – which embraces a focused risk management concept as well as an explicit risk management methodology. Risk Leveling accentuates upon organised and efficient consumption of available resources to achieve balanced risk postures in the business contagious environment. The ultimate intent of Risk Leveling is not only to cut the risks to business acceptability limits but to also ensure that mutual risk parities are conserved. Such intent is pursued through an organised procedure which employs a mix of analysis tools and philosophies including the AHP and the ALARP. By settling the contextual risks to business acceptability bounds, Risk Leveling aims to facilitate the regimes in regulating the macro business environments for wellbeing of business.
{"title":"Risk Leveling – an organised risk management approach","authors":"Shahid Rasheed, Faiza Yaqub, Changfeng Wang, S. Memon, B. D. Lucena","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011312","url":null,"abstract":"Macro environments acquire ever more significance in the growing business worlds. Whereas the industrial enterprises assume greater controls in managing their internal environs, the evident responsibility of governments is to regulate the business surrounding risks, to optimise the external environments, and to deliver poses that are conducive to business. In such context, this paper presents a specialised approach – Risk Leveling – which embraces a focused risk management concept as well as an explicit risk management methodology. Risk Leveling accentuates upon organised and efficient consumption of available resources to achieve balanced risk postures in the business contagious environment. The ultimate intent of Risk Leveling is not only to cut the risks to business acceptability limits but to also ensure that mutual risk parities are conserved. Such intent is pursued through an organised procedure which employs a mix of analysis tools and philosophies including the AHP and the ALARP. By settling the contextual risks to business acceptability bounds, Risk Leveling aims to facilitate the regimes in regulating the macro business environments for wellbeing of business.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43278236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-03-09DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011304
Oleg Uzhga-Rebrov, E. Karaseva
There are many methods to make decisions under risk. All of them can be divided into two large classes: normative (or prescriptive) methods and descriptive methods. Normative methods describe how individuals have to make optimal decisions based on certain decisive rules (selection criteria). Descriptive methods use empirical evidences concerning how individuals make optimal decisions in reality. There are a number of normative methods to make decisions under risk, which we mention in the presented paper as direct methods. Another popular tool to make decisions under risk is expected utility theory. The attitude to risk of the decision-making person plays the main role in decision making under risk. Therefore, attitudes to risk have to be effectively modelled and considered in decision making procedure. In this paper we are considering and analysing approaches to modelling of attitudes to risk with use of various normative methods of decision making under risk.
{"title":"Analysis of approaches to modelling of attitude to risk in normative decision making methods","authors":"Oleg Uzhga-Rebrov, E. Karaseva","doi":"10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJRAM.2018.10011304","url":null,"abstract":"There are many methods to make decisions under risk. All of them can be divided into two large classes: normative (or prescriptive) methods and descriptive methods. Normative methods describe how individuals have to make optimal decisions based on certain decisive rules (selection criteria). Descriptive methods use empirical evidences concerning how individuals make optimal decisions in reality. There are a number of normative methods to make decisions under risk, which we mention in the presented paper as direct methods. Another popular tool to make decisions under risk is expected utility theory. The attitude to risk of the decision-making person plays the main role in decision making under risk. Therefore, attitudes to risk have to be effectively modelled and considered in decision making procedure. In this paper we are considering and analysing approaches to modelling of attitudes to risk with use of various normative methods of decision making under risk.","PeriodicalId":35420,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":"21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48934947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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