Pub Date : 2022-01-01Epub Date: 2022-08-06DOI: 10.1186/s41118-022-00172-8
Silvia Rizzi, Cosmo Strozza, Virginia Zarulli
In this commentary, we bring together knowledge on sex-differences in excess death during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, one of the most hit European countries. We zoom into Italian regions to account for the spatial gradient of the spread of the virus. Analyses of excess death by sex during the COVID-19 pandemic have been possible thanks to weekly mortality data released by national statistical offices, mainly in developed countries. The general finding is that males up to 75 years old have been suffering more excess death compared to females. However, the picture is less clear-cut at older ages. During previous epidemics, such as SARS, Swine Flu, and MERS, studies are limited and produce scattered, non-conclusive evidence. Knowledge of the sex-pattern of susceptibility to mortality from virulent respiratory diseases and its interplay with age could improve crisis management during future epidemics and pandemics. National statistical offices should provide weekly mortality data with spatial granularity, disaggregated by sex and age groups, to allow for such analyses.
{"title":"Sex-differences in excess death risk during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of the first wave across Italian regions. What have we learned?","authors":"Silvia Rizzi, Cosmo Strozza, Virginia Zarulli","doi":"10.1186/s41118-022-00172-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-022-00172-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this commentary, we bring together knowledge on sex-differences in excess death during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, one of the most hit European countries. We zoom into Italian regions to account for the spatial gradient of the spread of the virus. Analyses of excess death by sex during the COVID-19 pandemic have been possible thanks to weekly mortality data released by national statistical offices, mainly in developed countries. The general finding is that males up to 75 years old have been suffering more excess death compared to females. However, the picture is less clear-cut at older ages. During previous epidemics, such as SARS, Swine Flu, and MERS, studies are limited and produce scattered, non-conclusive evidence. Knowledge of the sex-pattern of susceptibility to mortality from virulent respiratory diseases and its interplay with age could improve crisis management during future epidemics and pandemics. National statistical offices should provide weekly mortality data with spatial granularity, disaggregated by sex and age groups, to allow for such analyses.</p>","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9362380/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40708719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01Epub Date: 2022-09-05DOI: 10.1186/s41118-022-00174-6
Saeid Pourroostaei Ardakani, Tianqi Xia, Ali Cheshmehzangi, Zhiang Zhang
The world still suffers from the COVID-19 pandemic, which was identified in late 2019. The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases are increasing every day, and many governments are taking various measures and policies, such as city lockdown. It seriously treats people's lives and health conditions, and it is highly required to immediately take appropriate actions to minimise the virus spread and manage the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper aims to study the impact of the lockdown schedule on pandemic prevention and control in Ningbo, China. For this, machine learning techniques such as the K-nearest neighbours and Random Forest are used to predict the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases according to five scenarios, including no lockdown and 2 weeks, 1, 3, and 6 months postponed lockdown. According to the results, the random forest machine learning technique outperforms the K-nearest neighbours model in terms of mean squared error and R-square. The results support that taking an early lockdown measure minimises the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases in a city and addresses that late actions lead to a sharp COVID-19 outbreak.
{"title":"An urban-level prediction of lockdown measures impact on the prevalence of the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Saeid Pourroostaei Ardakani, Tianqi Xia, Ali Cheshmehzangi, Zhiang Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s41118-022-00174-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41118-022-00174-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The world still suffers from the COVID-19 pandemic, which was identified in late 2019. The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases are increasing every day, and many governments are taking various measures and policies, such as city lockdown. It seriously treats people's lives and health conditions, and it is highly required to immediately take appropriate actions to minimise the virus spread and manage the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper aims to study the impact of the lockdown schedule on pandemic prevention and control in Ningbo, China. For this, machine learning techniques such as the K-nearest neighbours and Random Forest are used to predict the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases according to five scenarios, including no lockdown and 2 weeks, 1, 3, and 6 months postponed lockdown. According to the results, the random forest machine learning technique outperforms the K-nearest neighbours model in terms of mean squared error and R-square. The results support that taking an early lockdown measure minimises the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases in a city and addresses that late actions lead to a sharp COVID-19 outbreak.</p>","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9444099/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33460002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01Epub Date: 2022-02-23DOI: 10.1186/s41118-022-00156-8
Romesh Silva
Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems and legal identity systems have become increasingly recognized as catalytic both for inclusive development and for monitoring population dynamics spanning the entire life course. Population scientists have a long history of contributing to the strengthening of CRVS and legal identity systems and of using vital registration data to understand population and development dynamics. This paper provides an overview of the Genus thematic series on CRVS systems. The series spans 11 research articles that document new insights on the registration of births, marriages, separations/divorces, deaths and legal residency. This introductory article to the series reviews the importance of population perspectives and demographic methods in strengthening CRVS systems and improving our understanding of population dynamics across the lifecourse. The paper highlights the major contributions from this thematic series and discusses emerging challenges and future research directions on CRVS systems for the population science community.
{"title":"Population perspectives and demographic methods to strengthen CRVS systems: introduction.","authors":"Romesh Silva","doi":"10.1186/s41118-022-00156-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-022-00156-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems and legal identity systems have become increasingly recognized as catalytic both for inclusive development and for monitoring population dynamics spanning the entire life course. Population scientists have a long history of contributing to the strengthening of CRVS and legal identity systems and of using vital registration data to understand population and development dynamics. This paper provides an overview of the <i>Genus</i> thematic series on CRVS systems. The series spans 11 research articles that document new insights on the registration of births, marriages, separations/divorces, deaths and legal residency. This introductory article to the series reviews the importance of population perspectives and demographic methods in strengthening CRVS systems and improving our understanding of population dynamics across the lifecourse. The paper highlights the major contributions from this thematic series and discusses emerging challenges and future research directions on CRVS systems for the population science community.</p>","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8864586/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71427535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-06DOI: 10.1186/s41118-021-00120-y
R. Schoen
{"title":"Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models","authors":"R. Schoen","doi":"10.1186/s41118-021-00120-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00120-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65776938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-30DOI: 10.1186/s41118-021-00138-2
A. Guarneri, Francesca Rinesi, R. Fraboni, A. De Rose
{"title":"On the magnitude, frequency, and nature of marriage dissolution in Italy: insights from vital statistics and life-table analysis","authors":"A. Guarneri, Francesca Rinesi, R. Fraboni, A. De Rose","doi":"10.1186/s41118-021-00138-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00138-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44641027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-14DOI: 10.1186/s41118-022-00153-x
Elisa Cisotto, Eleonora Meli, G. Cavrini
{"title":"Grandparents in Italy: trends and changes in the demography of grandparenthood from 1998 to 2016","authors":"Elisa Cisotto, Eleonora Meli, G. Cavrini","doi":"10.1186/s41118-022-00153-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-022-00153-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65777551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-15DOI: 10.1186/s41118-021-00132-8
Siow-Li Lai, N. Tey
{"title":"Deficiency in civil registration and vital statistics reporting in remote areas: the case of Sabah, Malaysia","authors":"Siow-Li Lai, N. Tey","doi":"10.1186/s41118-021-00132-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00132-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65777039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francesca Zanasi, B. Arpino, Elena Pirani, V. Bordone
This work investigates the link between grandmothers’ participation in the labour market during adult life (between ages 18 and 49) and their provision of grandparental childcare later in life. Our contribution is twofold. First, we consider the Italian case, that despite its reliance on informal care has been under-researched. Second, we test two contrasting arguments on the association between grandchild care provision and grandmother’s work histories. On the one hand, lifelong homemakers could be more family-oriented and more likely to provide grandchild care in later life. On the other hand, ever-employed grandmothers could be more likely to have employed daughters and provide grandchild care to support their working careers. With data from the Multipurpose surveys on Families and Social Subjects (2003, 2009, 2016), we estimate logistic regression models, considering various specifications of grandparental childcare, and measuring labour market attachment in three different ways (having ever worked, length of working career, employment interruptions for family reasons). Results show a dualism between grandmothers who ever worked and those who never did, with the former more likely to provide grandparental childcare, especially when parents are at work. Grandmothers who worked only a few years are more similar, in terms of grandchild care provision, to those who worked throughout their life, than to lifelong homemakers. This association is stronger in the South and North-West of Italy. Overall, we showed that care responsibilities are inextricable from labour market participation, as grandmothers who already juggled family and work are those supporting the most their adult children’s work–family reconciliation.
{"title":"Work histories and provision of grandparental childcare among Italian older women","authors":"Francesca Zanasi, B. Arpino, Elena Pirani, V. Bordone","doi":"10.31235/osf.io/pdxfr","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/pdxfr","url":null,"abstract":"This work investigates the link between grandmothers’ participation in the labour market during adult life (between ages 18 and 49) and their provision of grandparental childcare later in life. Our contribution is twofold. First, we consider the Italian case, that despite its reliance on informal care has been under-researched. Second, we test two contrasting arguments on the association between grandchild care provision and grandmother’s work histories. On the one hand, lifelong homemakers could be more family-oriented and more likely to provide grandchild care in later life. On the other hand, ever-employed grandmothers could be more likely to have employed daughters and provide grandchild care to support their working careers. With data from the Multipurpose surveys on Families and Social Subjects (2003, 2009, 2016), we estimate logistic regression models, considering various specifications of grandparental childcare, and measuring labour market attachment in three different ways (having ever worked, length of working career, employment interruptions for family reasons). Results show a dualism between grandmothers who ever worked and those who never did, with the former more likely to provide grandparental childcare, especially when parents are at work. Grandmothers who worked only a few years are more similar, in terms of grandchild care provision, to those who worked throughout their life, than to lifelong homemakers. This association is stronger in the South and North-West of Italy. Overall, we showed that care responsibilities are inextricable from labour market participation, as grandmothers who already juggled family and work are those supporting the most their adult children’s work–family reconciliation.","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45952740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-21DOI: 10.1186/s41118-021-00122-w
Hugo J. P. La Poutré, F. Janssen
{"title":"A two-parameter hazard function to describe age patterns of mortality in ancient Northwestern Europe","authors":"Hugo J. P. La Poutré, F. Janssen","doi":"10.1186/s41118-021-00122-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00122-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41118-021-00122-w","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65776965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-26DOI: 10.1186/s41118-021-00126-6
T. Lappegård, G. Neyer, Daniele Vignoli
{"title":"Three dimensions of the relationship between gender role attitudes and fertility intentions","authors":"T. Lappegård, G. Neyer, Daniele Vignoli","doi":"10.1186/s41118-021-00126-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00126-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35741,"journal":{"name":"Genus","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1186/s41118-021-00126-6","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46748156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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