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Analysis of Tendencies of Companies from the Leading Regions of Poland to Invest in New Fixed Assets Using the Logit Model Taking into Account the Interactions of Categorical Variables 考虑分类变量相互作用的Logit模型分析波兰主要地区企业新增固定资产投资趋势
Pub Date : 2015-03-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.1729
A. Świadek, Magdalena Wojciech
In developing countries, the main mechanism for acquisition of new technologies, is the purchase of ready-made solutions in the form of investments in machines and technical devices, computer software or investment in new buildings connected with the initiation of the production of innovation products. This is a passive transfer of technologies, in which the company acquires the technology from external sources and does not lead own research and developmental works. The model of logistic regression presented in the article allowed the as sessment of the tendency of the sectors of companies for the purchase of innovation fi xed assets. Taking into account in the modelling the effect of interaction of the company’s size and the type of its property allowed to indicate the directions of implementation of the passive technological progress in the leading provinces in Poland. For the reason that the parameters of the logit model with interactions do not intuitively have the clear interpretation, the paper pays particular attention to the substantive conclusions from the presented analyses.
在发展中国家,获得新技术的主要机制是购买现成的解决办法,其形式是投资于机器和技术设备、计算机软件或投资于与开始生产创新产品有关的新建筑物。这是一种被动的技术转让,即公司从外部获取技术,而不主导自己的研发工作。本文提出的logistic回归模型可以对企业部门购买创新固定资产的倾向进行评估。在建模中,考虑到公司规模和其财产类型的相互作用的影响,可以指示波兰主要省份被动技术进步的实施方向。由于具有相互作用的logit模型的参数不能直观地得到明确的解释,因此本文特别注重分析的实质性结论。
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引用次数: 0
Capital Productivity and Foreign Investments in the Bipolar Economic Growth Model – Convergence Analysis 两极经济增长模型中的资本生产率与外商投资——收敛分析
Pub Date : 2015-03-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.1692
Katarzyna Filipowicz, Rafał Wisła, T. Tokarski
In this article, the authors have been constructing a bipolar economic growth model, whose main assumptions are: investment fl ows depend on the ratio of capital productivity in two types of economies – conventionally called the rich and the poor, and the share of foreign investments in the economy of its total investment is described by logit function and depends on the ratio of capital productivity in both types of economies. The main purpose of this paper, is the empirical verifi cation of the bipolar economic growth model and its assumptions, by analyzing the impact of domestic and foreign investments on the long-term economic growth balance. The bipolar economic growth model is based on the Solow’s neoclassical growth model and its subsequent extensions. The bipolar economic growth model enters into a broad current investigation of the causes of polarization processes of economic development. Numerical simulations allows an estimate of the long-term relationship between the rich and poor economies, in regard to the capital-labour ratio, labor effi ciency and capital productivity. The simulations also allow the calculation of the time horizon over which the poor economy would equal the rich economy in terms of the level of macroeconomic variables analyzed.
在本文中,作者构建了一个两极经济增长模型,其主要假设是:投资流动取决于两种类型的经济体(通常称为富国和穷国)的资本生产率比率,外国投资在其总投资中所占的份额由logit函数描述,并取决于两种类型经济体的资本生产率比率。本文的主要目的,是通过分析国内外投资对长期经济增长平衡的影响,对双极经济增长模型及其假设进行实证验证。双极经济增长模型是在索洛新古典经济增长模型及其后续扩展的基础上建立起来的。两极经济增长模型进入了对经济发展极化过程成因的广泛研究。数值模拟可以估计富国和穷国在资本劳动比率、劳动效率和资本生产率方面的长期关系。模拟还可以计算出贫穷经济体与富裕经济体在所分析的宏观经济变量水平上相等的时间范围。
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引用次数: 0
Poverty Study Using Nonparametric Estimation of Recurrent Survival Function 使用复发生存函数的非参数估计的贫困研究
Pub Date : 2015-03-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.1695
Anna Sączewska-Piotrowska
The article analyses households’ poverty and nonpoverty duration. For this purpose survival function estimators for recurrent events were used: Wang-Chang estimator and two estimators proposed by Pena, Strawderman and Hollander (IIDPLE and FRMLE). We can conclude that survival probability for a long time out of poverty is greater than in the case of survival in poverty. Based on the graphical method we can conclude that the best estimator of survival in poverty and out of poverty is FRMLE. It means that we cannot assume that interoccurrence times within households are independent and identically distributed.
本文分析了家庭的贫困持续时间和非贫困持续时间。为此,使用了复发事件的生存函数估计器:Wang-Chang估计器和Pena, Strawderman和Hollander提出的两个估计器(IIDPLE和FRMLE)。我们可以得出结论,长期摆脱贫困的生存概率大于长期贫困的生存概率。基于图形方法,我们可以得出结论,贫困生存和摆脱贫困的最佳估计是FRMLE。这意味着我们不能假设家庭内部的相互发生时间是独立的和均匀分布的。
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引用次数: 0
The Research of the Foreign Trade Competitiveness in Dynamic Approach on the Example of Poland 动态方法下的外贸竞争力研究——以波兰为例
Pub Date : 2015-03-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.1700
M. Salamaga
One of the study proposals of the intensity of the intra-industry trade was presented Glejser et al. (1982). It is competitive with many foreign trade indicators which do not take account of the country specialization in import and export and do not refl ect adequately the effects of trade imbalances. On based the variance of the export and import specialization indicators Glejser et al. (1982) created a tool that overcomes these shortcomings. The proposed method, however, was not equipped with an appropriate statistical and econometric tools, which greatly limits its practical usefulness. This article attempts to improve the method and test it on the example of foreign trade in Poland.
Glejser et al.(1982)提出了产业内贸易强度的研究建议之一。它与许多没有考虑到国家进出口专业化和没有充分反映贸易不平衡影响的外贸指标相竞争。Glejser et al.(1982)基于进出口专业化指标的差异创造了一个克服这些缺点的工具。然而,拟议的方法没有配备适当的统计和计量工具,这大大限制了其实际用途。本文试图对该方法进行改进,并以波兰对外贸易为例进行检验。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the Efficiency of the Institutions on the Quality of Life in the European Union. Panel Data Evidence for the Years 2004–2010 欧盟机构效率对生活质量的影响。2004-2010年的小组数据证据
Pub Date : 2015-03-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.1705
A. Balcerzak, M. Pietrzak
The article concentrates on the problem of the effi ciency of the institutional system of the European Union countries in relation to the potential of the global knowledge-based economy (KBE) and its impact on quality of life. In order to defi ne the effi ciency of the institutional system, the authors refereed to the analytical structure of the new institutional economics, in particular, the transaction costs theory. On this basis, it is assumed that effective institutional factors are conducive to the reduction of transaction costs. To measure the effectiveness of the institutional system authors proposed a synthetic indicator, which has been constructed with application of the modifi ed TOPSIS method. As diagnostic variables the authors adopted the variables on four aspects characterizing the effi ciency of the institutional system in the context of the country’s ability to exploit the potential of KBE. The aspects were related to regulations aimed at promoting entrepreneurship, the issue of law institutions conducive to maintaining low level of transaction costs and improving the effi ciency of the market mechanism, the issue of economy competitiveness and effi ciency of labor markets and the quality of fi nancial market institutions. The data were obtained from the database of Fraser Institute that is created for the purpose of the annual Economic Freedom of the World report. For the measurement of quality of life the Human Development Index was used. The main aim of this article was an attempt to assess the relationship between the level of institutional effectiveness in the context of KBE and quality of life for residents of the European Union countries in 2004–2010. In the econometric analysis the dynamic panel model was used for the 24 countries of the European Union, which has led to the identifi cation of the positive impact of the effi ciency of the institutions on the quality of life.
本文集中讨论了欧盟国家在全球知识经济(KBE)潜力及其对生活质量的影响方面的制度体系效率问题。为了界定制度体系的效率,作者参考了新制度经济学的分析结构,特别是交易成本理论。在此基础上,假设有效的制度因素有利于交易成本的降低。为了衡量制度体系的有效性,作者运用改进的TOPSIS方法构建了一个综合指标。作为诊断变量,作者采用了在国家开发知识经济潜力的能力背景下表征体制系统效率的四个方面的变量。这些方面涉及旨在促进企业家精神的规定、有利于维持低交易成本水平和提高市场机制效率的法律制度问题、经济竞争力和劳动力市场效率问题以及金融市场机构的质量问题。这些数据来自弗雷泽研究所的数据库,该数据库是为年度世界经济自由报告而创建的。人类发展指数被用来衡量生活质量。本文的主要目的是试图评估2004-2010年欧盟国家居民在知识经济背景下的制度有效性水平与生活质量之间的关系。在计量经济学分析中,动态面板模型被用于欧盟24个国家,这导致了制度效率对生活质量的积极影响的识别。
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引用次数: 2
Multi-Criteria Preference Vector Method (PVM) as a Tool Supporting the Decision Making Process 多准则偏好向量法(PVM)作为支持决策过程的工具
Pub Date : 2015-03-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.1706
K. Nermend
The paper presents the theoretical foundations of Preference Vector Method (PVM). It is the development of methods used by the Polish school and can be used in the decision making process. The ranking of objects according to a decision-maker preferences is performed on the basis of a combination of two methods for construction aggregate measures: Hellwig method, in which the Euclidean distance is used and the vector measures construction method (VMCM), which uses a vector projection.
介绍了偏好向量法(PVM)的理论基础。它是波兰学派使用的方法的发展,可以在决策过程中使用。根据决策者的偏好对目标进行排序是在两种构建聚合测度方法的基础上进行的:使用欧几里得距离的Hellwig法和使用矢量投影的矢量测度构建法(VMCM)。
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引用次数: 0
Data Normalization in Multivariate Data Analysis. An Overview and Properties 多元数据分析中的数据规范化。概述和属性
Pub Date : 2014-12-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.1740
Mark Walesiak
The purpose of normalization is to adjust the size (magnitude) and the relative weighting of the input variables. The article presents an overview of the normalization formulas and their properties. Moreover a new formulas of normalization of the values of variables are proposed. The article discusses connection among normalization formulas and indicates incorrect normalization formulas.
归一化的目的是调整输入变量的大小(幅度)和相对权重。本文概述了归一化公式及其性质。此外,还提出了一种新的变量值归一化公式。讨论了归一化公式之间的联系,指出了不正确的归一化公式。
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引用次数: 7
Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in Euro Zone Countries with Special Consideration of Influence on Economic Convergence 欧元区国家财政政策的非凯恩斯效应及其对经济趋同的影响
Pub Date : 2014-12-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.2364
A. Balcerzak, M. Pietrzak, E. Rogalska
Last global financial crisis has led to massive fiscal stimulation actions in most of developed countries which resulted in significant increase of their public debt. This can be also said about Eurozone or wider EU economies. This factors in near future will force many EU countries to adopt much stricter middle and long term fiscal policy that will be necessary for deleveraging process. In this context the aim of the research is to check whether can one find non-Keynesian effects of fiscal consolidations in Eurozone countries in last decade. If the answer is positive, then could these non-Keynesian effects be significant developing factor in case of Eurozone countries. The third scientific question concentrates on the ways the fiscal consolidations were implemented and the potential influence of consolidations strategies on short term growth. In the research the econometric dynamic panel model based on the concept of conditional -convergence was applied. As a complementary method qualitative analysis of cases of significant contractions was made with the concentration on the differences between expansionary thus non-Keynesian cases and conventional Keynesian cases of fiscal contractions. The research results give some arguments for existence of fiscal transitions channels leading to non-Keynesian effects of fi scal policy, which in the same time can be a factor of -conditional convergence.
上一次全球金融危机导致大多数发达国家采取了大规模的财政刺激措施,导致其公共债务大幅增加。这也适用于欧元区或更广泛的欧盟经济体。在不久的将来,这些因素将迫使许多欧盟国家采取更为严格的中长期财政政策,这将是去杠杆化进程所必需的。在此背景下,本研究的目的是检验是否可以发现欧元区国家在过去十年中财政整顿的非凯恩斯效应。如果答案是肯定的,那么这些非凯恩斯效应是否会成为欧元区国家的重要发展因素?第三个科学问题集中在财政整顿的实施方式以及整顿战略对短期增长的潜在影响上。研究中采用了基于条件收敛概念的计量经济学动态面板模型。作为一种补充方法,我们对重大紧缩案例进行了定性分析,重点关注扩张性(即非凯恩斯主义)财政紧缩案例与传统凯恩斯主义财政紧缩案例之间的差异。研究结果表明,存在导致财政政策产生非凯恩斯效应的财政转移渠道,同时也可能是非条件趋同的一个因素。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation Analysis of the Size of the BDS Test 北斗系统试验尺寸的仿真分析
Pub Date : 2014-12-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.1739
W. Orzeszko
The BDS test is one of the most important and most commonly used tools for detection of nonlinearity in time series. In the paper, the size of the BDS test is assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation uses pseudo-random series of different length, generated from seven distributions with different properties. In the research, the approximation of the fi nite sample distribution of the BDS statistic was performed using three methods: the classical one – based on the asymptotic normal distribution and two resampling methods: the bootstrap and the permutation technique.
北斗系统测试是检测时间序列非线性最重要、最常用的工具之一。在本文中,利用蒙特卡罗模拟评估了北斗系统试验的规模。模拟使用不同长度的伪随机序列,由7个具有不同性质的分布生成。本文采用经典的基于渐近正态分布的方法和自举法和置换法两种重采样方法对北斗统计量的有限样本分布进行了逼近。
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引用次数: 0
The Study of Dynamic Relationships between Flow of Foreign Direct Investment and the Pattern of Comparative Advantage in the Polish Economy 外商直接投资流动与波兰经济比较优势格局的动态关系研究
Pub Date : 2014-12-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.2363
M. Salamaga
The paper presents the dynamic relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) in Poland and the values of revealed comparative advantage indexes of goods with different share of the production factors. For this purpose, the vector error correction model (VECM) was used. To investigate the feedback between the variables there are analyzed the results of the impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition.The results provide a benchmark for the verification of the theory of dynamic comparative advantages (Ozawa, 1992), which is an important cell in a long-term relationship between FDI and competitiveness of the economy. One of the main conclusions of the article is to determine the simultaneous occurrence of symptoms typical for the different phases of economic development in the Ozawa model. For the calculations were used data from the Central Statistical Office covering the period from the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2012.
本文研究了波兰外商直接投资(FDI)与不同生产要素比重商品的显性比较优势指数之间的动态关系。为此,采用矢量误差修正模型(VECM)。为了研究变量之间的反馈,分析了脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解的结果。研究结果为动态比较优势理论(Ozawa, 1992)的验证提供了基准,动态比较优势理论是FDI与经济竞争力之间长期关系的重要细胞。本文的主要结论之一是确定Ozawa模型中经济发展不同阶段的典型症状同时发生。在计算中使用了中央统计局2002年第一季度至2012年第四季度的数据。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Przegląd Statystyczny
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