L. Feld, Joshua Hassib, Maximilian Langer, Daniel Nientiedt, Philipp Weber
The political debate regarding the consequences of the German “debt brake” continues. The arguments against its current design are similar to the arguments brought forward in 2009, when the rule was first introduced. One hot-button issue has always been whether the German debt brake constrains public investment. A recent study by Feld et al. (2024) applies the synthetic control method to address this question. Mühlenweg et al. (2024) criticise their approach, building on well-known arguments against the German debt brake. This article counters their arguments.
{"title":"Schuldenbremse und öffentliche Investitionen: Erwiderung auf Mühlenweg et al. (2024)","authors":"L. Feld, Joshua Hassib, Maximilian Langer, Daniel Nientiedt, Philipp Weber","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0123","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The political debate regarding the consequences of the German “debt brake” continues. The arguments against its current design are similar to the arguments brought forward in 2009, when the rule was first introduced. One hot-button issue has always been whether the German debt brake constrains public investment. A recent study by Feld et al. (2024) applies the synthetic control method to address this question. Mühlenweg et al. (2024) criticise their approach, building on well-known arguments against the German debt brake. This article counters their arguments.","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141843428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The observation of the remarkably stable development of inequality indicators in Germany in the relevant period suggests that it is unlikely that they represent a major explanatory factor for the rise of the AfD. Furthermore, in an EU comparison, the success of radical right-wing parties appears to be quite independent of the classification of their level of inequality. In Germany, AfD supporters are also rather critical of a (flat-rate) expansion of redistribution policies. Their view of the welfare state is characterised by welfare chauvinism and status orientation, and therefore their view of socio-economic indicators is rather pessimistic. A more powerful reception of positive outcomes may help to develop a socio-politically stabilising effect.
{"title":"Ökonomische Ungleichheit und das Erstarken des rechten Randes – die empirische Suche nach einem Zusammenhang","authors":"Matthias Diermeier, Judith Niehues","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0118","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The observation of the remarkably stable development of inequality indicators in Germany in the relevant period suggests that it is unlikely that they represent a major explanatory factor for the rise of the AfD. Furthermore, in an EU comparison, the success of radical right-wing parties appears to be quite independent of the classification of their level of inequality. In Germany, AfD supporters are also rather critical of a (flat-rate) expansion of redistribution policies. Their view of the welfare state is characterised by welfare chauvinism and status orientation, and therefore their view of socio-economic indicators is rather pessimistic. A more powerful reception of positive outcomes may help to develop a socio-politically stabilising effect.","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141845214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Bundesbank’s balance sheet and those of other central banks in the eurozone are currently showing high “operating“ losses due to the discrepancy between the low interest bearing securities holdings from bond purchases and the now higher interest bearing commercial bank deposits. However, the current accounting practice does not reflect the associated losses in value anywhere near the market level – even though, according to the PSPP ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court, the sale of securities before final maturity should be the rule. Even under the current valuation practice, an equity gap cannot be ruled out in the future, which is generally seen as unproblematic for central banks. However, there are risks in the context of recapitalisation by the state. Within the eurozone, national and European requirements could make such capital injections necessary.
{"title":"Bundesbank-Verluste: Bilanzierungspraxis und etwaige Nachschusspflicht des Bundes","authors":"A. Hansen","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0127","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The Bundesbank’s balance sheet and those of other central banks in the eurozone are currently showing high “operating“ losses due to the discrepancy between the low interest bearing securities holdings from bond purchases and the now higher interest bearing commercial bank deposits. However, the current accounting practice does not reflect the associated losses in value anywhere near the market level – even though, according to the PSPP ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court, the sale of securities before final maturity should be the rule. Even under the current valuation practice, an equity gap cannot be ruled out in the future, which is generally seen as unproblematic for central banks. However, there are risks in the context of recapitalisation by the state. Within the eurozone, national and European requirements could make such capital injections necessary.","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141848708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Frankreich-Wahl: Substanzielle Folgen für die EU","authors":"F. Heinemann","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0113","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141838550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines the recent downturn in Germany’s housing construction sector, marked by a significant drop in business climate indicators. Key factors include material shortages, order cancellations, financing constraints, and a lack of new orders, which have worsened since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. A central driver for this development was the sharp and rapid increase of the ECB’s key interest rate and the subsequently deteriorating financial conditions for house building. A comparison with other European countries is also provided. The outlook remains bleak, with continued pessimism expected in the housing construction sector.
{"title":"Zur aktuellen Krisenstimmung im Wohnungsbau","authors":"Felix Leiss, K. Wohlrabe","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0128","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article examines the recent downturn in Germany’s housing construction sector, marked by a significant drop in business climate indicators. Key factors include material shortages, order cancellations, financing constraints, and a lack of new orders, which have worsened since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. A central driver for this development was the sharp and rapid increase of the ECB’s key interest rate and the subsequently deteriorating financial conditions for house building. A comparison with other European countries is also provided. The outlook remains bleak, with continued pessimism expected in the housing construction sector.","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141838661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In financing investments, municipalities rely heavily on infrastructure grants. These funds are distributed through numerous programmes, with the states playing a significant role. Empirical research suggests that political affiliations influence the allocation of these funds. On one hand, political actors on the donor side tend to favour connected municipalities. On the other hand, information asymmetries on the recipient side can explain why certain municipalities receive less funding. Consequently, funds may not end up where they generate the greatest impact. The article synthesises available evidence and derives implications for the design of grant programmes.
{"title":"Förderprogramme für Kommunen: politische Verflechtungen und Informationsdefizite","authors":"Désirée Christofzik, Matthias Quinckhardt","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0124","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In financing investments, municipalities rely heavily on infrastructure grants. These funds are distributed through numerous programmes, with the states playing a significant role. Empirical research suggests that political affiliations influence the allocation of these funds. On one hand, political actors on the donor side tend to favour connected municipalities. On the other hand, information asymmetries on the recipient side can explain why certain municipalities receive less funding. Consequently, funds may not end up where they generate the greatest impact. The article synthesises available evidence and derives implications for the design of grant programmes.","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141842570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There is now a consensus that carbon capture and storage (CCS) should play a role in achieving climate neutrality. Against the background of national and international developments, the question arises as to which emissions should (or may) be reduced via CCS at all. What is meant by “difficult and unavoidable emissions” in the context of CCS and whether such a focus makes sense also needs to be clarified.
{"title":"Abscheidung und Speicherung von CO2 und „schwer oder nicht vermeidbare Emissionen“","authors":"Johann H. Pfeiffer, K. Pittel","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0121","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 There is now a consensus that carbon capture and storage (CCS) should play a role in achieving climate neutrality. Against the background of national and international developments, the question arises as to which emissions should (or may) be reduced via CCS at all. What is meant by “difficult and unavoidable emissions” in the context of CCS and whether such a focus makes sense also needs to be clarified.","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141839914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Konjunkturschlaglicht: Japan schwach bei Wachstum und Konjunktur","authors":"Klaus-Jürgen Gern","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0129","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141843169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lilith Burgstaller, Joshua Hassib, W. Benedikt Schmal, Philipp Weber
Auten and Splinter (2024) is the latest contribution to an ongoing debate regarding the historical development of income inequality in the U.S. This debate is mainly based on the seminal work of Piketty and co-authors. Auten and Splinters’ results challenge established measurement techniques as their results indicate a much weaker increase in income inequality compared to Piketty and co-authors. This article summarises and discusses major differences between the approaches and the results. However, U.S. results on inequality are only of limited use for similar debates in Germany. This is due to the fact that the inequality debate in Germany focuses more on wealth than income inequality. Additionally, German data infrastructure prohibits any expressive replication of the approaches discussed in this article.
Auten and Splinter (2024) 是对目前有关美国收入不平等历史发展争论的最新贡献。Auten 和 Splinters 的研究结果挑战了既定的测量技术，因为他们的研究结果表明，与皮凯蒂及其合著者相比，收入不平等的加剧程度要弱得多。本文总结并讨论了这些方法和结果之间的主要差异。然而，美国的不平等结果对德国的类似辩论作用有限。这是因为德国的不平等辩论更多关注的是财富不平等而非收入不平等。此外，德国的数据基础设施也不允许对本文讨论的方法进行任何有说服力的复制。
{"title":"Die Tücken der Ungleichheitsmessung: Rezeption einer aktuellen Debatte","authors":"Lilith Burgstaller, Joshua Hassib, W. Benedikt Schmal, Philipp Weber","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0125","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Auten and Splinter (2024) is the latest contribution to an ongoing debate regarding the historical development of income inequality in the U.S. This debate is mainly based on the seminal work of Piketty and co-authors. Auten and Splinters’ results challenge established measurement techniques as their results indicate a much weaker increase in income inequality compared to Piketty and co-authors. This article summarises and discusses major differences between the approaches and the results. However, U.S. results on inequality are only of limited use for similar debates in Germany. This is due to the fact that the inequality debate in Germany focuses more on wealth than income inequality. Additionally, German data infrastructure prohibits any expressive replication of the approaches discussed in this article.","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141850710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Inequality can be observed in many areas, such as income and wealth, in the labour market, in terms of educational opportunities, and at the regional level. People are increasingly concerned that they will be among the losers of society in the upcoming (green and digital) transformation. In this situation, distribution conflicts can arise that weaken social cohesion. The following questions arise in this context: How has inequality developed? What effects can inequality have and how can it be countered in order to strengthen social cohesion?
{"title":"Verteilungskonflikte: Wie wird der gesellschaftliche Zusammenhalt gesichert?","authors":"","doi":"10.2478/wd-2024-0116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0116","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Inequality can be observed in many areas, such as income and wealth, in the labour market, in terms of educational opportunities, and at the regional level. People are increasingly concerned that they will be among the losers of society in the upcoming (green and digital) transformation. In this situation, distribution conflicts can arise that weaken social cohesion. The following questions arise in this context: How has inequality developed? What effects can inequality have and how can it be countered in order to strengthen social cohesion?","PeriodicalId":35890,"journal":{"name":"Wirtschaftsdienst","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141851384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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