Pub Date : 2023-06-01DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2220300
N. Doan, M. Tran
The question of whether the imposition of economic sanctions impairs or nurtures cultural affinity remains controversial. In effect, this paper investigates the effect of economic sanctions on the trade of cultural goods as a proxy for cultural proximity, using cross-country data with 5,304 country pairs ranging from the years 1996–2019. Through extensive robustness checks, our main findings reveal that economic sanctions drive up the trade of cultural goods. The effect on the trade of cultural goods is heterogeneous across various forms of economic sanctions. While military, arms, trade, and travel sanctions are trade facilitators, financial and other sanctions are trade barriers. These effects are conditional on the level of economic development in the sanctioned countries and change over time. Our findings suggest cultural implications of economic sanctions in foreign policy design.
{"title":"Quantifying the Effect of Economic Sanctions on Trade in Cultural Goods","authors":"N. Doan, M. Tran","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2220300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2220300","url":null,"abstract":"The question of whether the imposition of economic sanctions impairs or nurtures cultural affinity remains controversial. In effect, this paper investigates the effect of economic sanctions on the trade of cultural goods as a proxy for cultural proximity, using cross-country data with 5,304 country pairs ranging from the years 1996–2019. Through extensive robustness checks, our main findings reveal that economic sanctions drive up the trade of cultural goods. The effect on the trade of cultural goods is heterogeneous across various forms of economic sanctions. While military, arms, trade, and travel sanctions are trade facilitators, financial and other sanctions are trade barriers. These effects are conditional on the level of economic development in the sanctioned countries and change over time. Our findings suggest cultural implications of economic sanctions in foreign policy design.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43988040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2207086
L. Attílio
We assess oil and agricultural price shocks in the financial markets of six EMEs (Brazil, Chile, Mexico, India, South Africa, and Turkey) using the GVAR. Positive oil price shocks provoke falls in all stock markets, devaluations in four domestic currencies, and tight monetary policies in two economies. The variance decomposition indicated that this shock is more influential in the stock markets, followed by the exchange rates. Compared to the oil price, shocks in agricultural prices caused appreciations in all domestic currencies. This shock is pervasive in all exchange markets in the first months, losing importance over time. The distinct responses to different commodities shocks point out that the kind of shock is relevant to comprehend its influence on EMEs. We detected relevant heterogeneities concerning the spreading of commodities shocks on domestic financial markets, especially in South Africa.
{"title":"Impact of Oil and Agricultural Shocks on the Financial Markets of Emerging Market Economies","authors":"L. Attílio","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2207086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2207086","url":null,"abstract":"We assess oil and agricultural price shocks in the financial markets of six EMEs (Brazil, Chile, Mexico, India, South Africa, and Turkey) using the GVAR. Positive oil price shocks provoke falls in all stock markets, devaluations in four domestic currencies, and tight monetary policies in two economies. The variance decomposition indicated that this shock is more influential in the stock markets, followed by the exchange rates. Compared to the oil price, shocks in agricultural prices caused appreciations in all domestic currencies. This shock is pervasive in all exchange markets in the first months, losing importance over time. The distinct responses to different commodities shocks point out that the kind of shock is relevant to comprehend its influence on EMEs. We detected relevant heterogeneities concerning the spreading of commodities shocks on domestic financial markets, especially in South Africa.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45427384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2207847
H. Yilmazkuday
Sectoral heterogeneity has been shown to affect country-level welfare gains from trade (measured by costs of autarky) that can be calculated by sector-specific trade elasticities and home expenditure shares. However, empirical analyses of multi-sector models are restricted to a limited number of countries and sectors, mostly due to the lack of data on sector-specific home expenditure shares. This paper first proposes a solution to this limitation by changing the way that foreign products are aggregated at the destination country, where ‘unbiased’ multi-sector welfare gains can be captured by using country-specific trade elasticity measures. Second, the restrictive assumption of unitary importer-income elasticity is relaxed, and it is shown that the trade elasticity in the calculation of welfare gains is replaced by the newly-introduced welfare elasticity, a function of trade and income elasticities. Empirical evidence suggests that equal percentage changes in home expenditure shares result in unequal gains across countries depending on their elasticity measures.
{"title":"Unequal Welfare Gains From Trade Across Countries: The Role of Aggregation and Income Elasticities","authors":"H. Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2207847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2207847","url":null,"abstract":"Sectoral heterogeneity has been shown to affect country-level welfare gains from trade (measured by costs of autarky) that can be calculated by sector-specific trade elasticities and home expenditure shares. However, empirical analyses of multi-sector models are restricted to a limited number of countries and sectors, mostly due to the lack of data on sector-specific home expenditure shares. This paper first proposes a solution to this limitation by changing the way that foreign products are aggregated at the destination country, where ‘unbiased’ multi-sector welfare gains can be captured by using country-specific trade elasticity measures. Second, the restrictive assumption of unitary importer-income elasticity is relaxed, and it is shown that the trade elasticity in the calculation of welfare gains is replaced by the newly-introduced welfare elasticity, a function of trade and income elasticities. Empirical evidence suggests that equal percentage changes in home expenditure shares result in unequal gains across countries depending on their elasticity measures.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46832030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2212268
Hodabalo Bataka, Wonyra Kwami Ossadzifo
Using data from Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1990–2015, this study examines the effects of Global Value Chains’ (GVCs) participation on economic growth by distinguishing participation in upstream, participation in downstream and sectors-based participation. The study also focuses on how the economic growth effect of GVCs’ participation can be affected by the ICTs. The Driscoll and Kraay’ estimation approach applied to the cross-lagged panel model enabled to overcome the cross-sectional dependence, heteroscedasticity, errors’ autocorrelation and reverse causality problems. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is further employed for the robustness check. The findings are robust and indicate that the GVCs’ participation (general, upstream, downstream and sectorial) boosts economic growth in SSA countries. These positive effects hold and are even more intensive when the GVCs’ participation is modulated by the ICTs. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that SSA countries should focus on the downstream GVCs’ participation that is the production and export of the (high technologies) intermediate goods that are essential for the production activities of other GVCs’ stakeholders. For the sectors-based participation, the study seems to show that participation in the services sector promotes more economic growth, followed to some extent by the mining, agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
{"title":"How ICTs Moderate the Effect of Global Value Chains’ Participation on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa?","authors":"Hodabalo Bataka, Wonyra Kwami Ossadzifo","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2212268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2212268","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1990–2015, this study examines the effects of Global Value Chains’ (GVCs) participation on economic growth by distinguishing participation in upstream, participation in downstream and sectors-based participation. The study also focuses on how the economic growth effect of GVCs’ participation can be affected by the ICTs. The Driscoll and Kraay’ estimation approach applied to the cross-lagged panel model enabled to overcome the cross-sectional dependence, heteroscedasticity, errors’ autocorrelation and reverse causality problems. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is further employed for the robustness check. The findings are robust and indicate that the GVCs’ participation (general, upstream, downstream and sectorial) boosts economic growth in SSA countries. These positive effects hold and are even more intensive when the GVCs’ participation is modulated by the ICTs. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that SSA countries should focus on the downstream GVCs’ participation that is the production and export of the (high technologies) intermediate goods that are essential for the production activities of other GVCs’ stakeholders. For the sectors-based participation, the study seems to show that participation in the services sector promotes more economic growth, followed to some extent by the mining, agriculture and manufacturing sectors.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44110860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2212251
Daniel Machado, J. Fuinhas
This empirical research addressed the short – and long-run relationship between economic freedom (and its subcomponents) and income inequality using a panel of 102 countries between 2000 and 2018. The results of employing an autoregressive distributed lag model showed that economic freedom has a detrimental impact on income inequality measured by any of the main inequality indicators. However, the results point to a relatively inelastic relationship. Additionally, the study explored the interactions between the subcomponents of economic freedom and income inequality, again pointing to a rigid relationship. While the size of the government and legal property rights increase income inequality, deregulation exerts the opposite effect. This paper closes with future guidelines for research.
{"title":"Income Inequality and Economic Freedom Revisited: Are Freedom and Equality Conflicting Values? Evidence from the twenty-first Century","authors":"Daniel Machado, J. Fuinhas","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2212251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2212251","url":null,"abstract":"This empirical research addressed the short – and long-run relationship between economic freedom (and its subcomponents) and income inequality using a panel of 102 countries between 2000 and 2018. The results of employing an autoregressive distributed lag model showed that economic freedom has a detrimental impact on income inequality measured by any of the main inequality indicators. However, the results point to a relatively inelastic relationship. Additionally, the study explored the interactions between the subcomponents of economic freedom and income inequality, again pointing to a rigid relationship. While the size of the government and legal property rights increase income inequality, deregulation exerts the opposite effect. This paper closes with future guidelines for research.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45087245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-28DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2194292
Gordon Reikard
There are two major issues in using artificial intelligence to forecast exchange rates, choice of methodology and choice of causal models. A further complication is the nonstationarity of the data. This study compares artificial neural networks, nonlinear regressions and recurrent neural networks, using seven econometric models, in forecasting four major exchange rates over horizons of 1–3 months. The models are trained over moving windows and estimated in both levels and differences. There are three key findings. First, the multilayer perceptron nearly always achieves the most accurate forecasts, with the regressions in second place. The recurrent neural network places a distant third. Second, at horizons of 1 and 2 months, the perceptron is usually better in differences. At the 3-month horizon, however, the accuracy in differences deteriorates. Third, the perceptron favors models including international differentials in price levels, interest rates and yields, which achieve the best forecasts in the majority of cases. Several other models are competitive. One is the familiar Dornbusch-Frankel equation which uses differentials in inflation, output, interest rates and money supplies. Another is a combined model, the Dornbusch-Frankel equation with an additional term for the yield differential. Models using differentials in real interest rates do well in one instance.
{"title":"Forecasting Exchange Rates with Neural Networks: Time Variation, Nonstationarity, and Causal Models","authors":"Gordon Reikard","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2194292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2194292","url":null,"abstract":"There are two major issues in using artificial intelligence to forecast exchange rates, choice of methodology and choice of causal models. A further complication is the nonstationarity of the data. This study compares artificial neural networks, nonlinear regressions and recurrent neural networks, using seven econometric models, in forecasting four major exchange rates over horizons of 1–3 months. The models are trained over moving windows and estimated in both levels and differences. There are three key findings. First, the multilayer perceptron nearly always achieves the most accurate forecasts, with the regressions in second place. The recurrent neural network places a distant third. Second, at horizons of 1 and 2 months, the perceptron is usually better in differences. At the 3-month horizon, however, the accuracy in differences deteriorates. Third, the perceptron favors models including international differentials in price levels, interest rates and yields, which achieve the best forecasts in the majority of cases. Several other models are competitive. One is the familiar Dornbusch-Frankel equation which uses differentials in inflation, output, interest rates and money supplies. Another is a combined model, the Dornbusch-Frankel equation with an additional term for the yield differential. Models using differentials in real interest rates do well in one instance.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44716114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-28DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2193159
Thuy Tuong Nguyen, T. H. Duong, Myehue Dinh, T. T. M. Truong, T. H. H. Pham
While there have been numerous papers analyzing the political, economic and social effects of trust, there is little evidence on how social trust has an impact on property rights protection which is fundamental for promoting economic development. This study aims to investigate how trust value is related to property rights protection, focusing on the comparison of the effect on intellectual property rights versus physical property rights. Analyzing the data on property rights protection in 2015 from the Property Right Alliance organization and trust value from the World Value Survey from 1999 to 2014, we find that social trust has a direct effect only on intellectual property rights protection but less consistent on physical property rights protection. However, trust value has indirect effect on both forms of property rights protection via formal institutions. Our study, thus, adds to the literature by clarifying the context through which trust value affects cheating behaviors.
{"title":"The Role of Social Trust on Property Right Protection: Physical Property Versus Intellectual Property","authors":"Thuy Tuong Nguyen, T. H. Duong, Myehue Dinh, T. T. M. Truong, T. H. H. Pham","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2193159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2193159","url":null,"abstract":"While there have been numerous papers analyzing the political, economic and social effects of trust, there is little evidence on how social trust has an impact on property rights protection which is fundamental for promoting economic development. This study aims to investigate how trust value is related to property rights protection, focusing on the comparison of the effect on intellectual property rights versus physical property rights. Analyzing the data on property rights protection in 2015 from the Property Right Alliance organization and trust value from the World Value Survey from 1999 to 2014, we find that social trust has a direct effect only on intellectual property rights protection but less consistent on physical property rights protection. However, trust value has indirect effect on both forms of property rights protection via formal institutions. Our study, thus, adds to the literature by clarifying the context through which trust value affects cheating behaviors.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48986758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-08DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2182814
Mert Akyuz, Ghislain Nono Gueye, Cagin Karul
The relatively small panel cointegration literature on the dynamics between FDI and income inequality predominantly finds that FDI will reduce income inequality in the long-run in developed countries. However, we point out an important technical oversight in the literature. Not accounting for cross-section dependence in panel data methodologies may yield unreliable results. Expanding on the work of Herzer and Nunnenkamp [(2013). Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: Evidence from Europe. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 395–422. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0148-3], who pioneered the use of panel cointegration in the European context, we obtain different results when we account for cross-section dependence and employ economic procedures robust to it. Using a panel containing 16 OECD countries (1979–2017), 2 income inequality measures, and 4 FDI measures, we begin by showing strong evidence for the existence of cross-section dependence. Then, using second-generation econometric procedures, we do not find any evidence for a cointegrating relationship between inward FDI and income inequality. We do find evidence that outward FDI is cointegrated with income inequality; however, contrary to the main results of the literature, we find that it widens the income gap in the long-run. Additionally, our results support the view that fiscal policy is an important tool to reduce income inequality.
{"title":"Revisiting the Long-Run Relationship Between Inward/Outward FDI and Income Inequality: New Evidence from the OECD","authors":"Mert Akyuz, Ghislain Nono Gueye, Cagin Karul","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2182814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2182814","url":null,"abstract":"The relatively small panel cointegration literature on the dynamics between FDI and income inequality predominantly finds that FDI will reduce income inequality in the long-run in developed countries. However, we point out an important technical oversight in the literature. Not accounting for cross-section dependence in panel data methodologies may yield unreliable results. Expanding on the work of Herzer and Nunnenkamp [(2013). Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: Evidence from Europe. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 395–422. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0148-3], who pioneered the use of panel cointegration in the European context, we obtain different results when we account for cross-section dependence and employ economic procedures robust to it. Using a panel containing 16 OECD countries (1979–2017), 2 income inequality measures, and 4 FDI measures, we begin by showing strong evidence for the existence of cross-section dependence. Then, using second-generation econometric procedures, we do not find any evidence for a cointegrating relationship between inward FDI and income inequality. We do find evidence that outward FDI is cointegrated with income inequality; however, contrary to the main results of the literature, we find that it widens the income gap in the long-run. Additionally, our results support the view that fiscal policy is an important tool to reduce income inequality.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43791534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-08DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2184845
S. Bagchi, Sayantan Bandhu Majumder, Somdutta Banerjee
ABSTRACT The last decade witnessed global debt levels to reach record high. In Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) like never before, the (public and private) debt–GDP ratio has been dismally high. An upward spree of the debt–GDP ratio coupled with a looming economic crisis led to concerns about institutional qualities (IQ). We explore how different dimensions of IQ (namely, political, legal and governance) impact the debt–growth relationship in the EMDEs amidst the current fourth wave of debt (2010–2019). We examine whether the relation is monotonic or it varies around a particular threshold value of IQ. By applying a dynamic panel threshold regression model, we obtain two regime-dependent marginal effects of regressors (upper and lower regimes) that are distinguished by a threshold value of IQ. Our results reveal that for each of our considered IQ, there exists a statistically significant threshold value. For public debt, across all dimensions of IQ debt hurts growth in the lower regime, while in the upper regime the association is favourable. While private debt is growth enhancing in the lower regime of all IQs (excepting corruption), while it is inimical in the upper regime.
{"title":"Institutions Determine Debt–Growth Relationship: Evidence from Fourth Wave of Debt in EMDEs","authors":"S. Bagchi, Sayantan Bandhu Majumder, Somdutta Banerjee","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2184845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2184845","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The last decade witnessed global debt levels to reach record high. In Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) like never before, the (public and private) debt–GDP ratio has been dismally high. An upward spree of the debt–GDP ratio coupled with a looming economic crisis led to concerns about institutional qualities (IQ). We explore how different dimensions of IQ (namely, political, legal and governance) impact the debt–growth relationship in the EMDEs amidst the current fourth wave of debt (2010–2019). We examine whether the relation is monotonic or it varies around a particular threshold value of IQ. By applying a dynamic panel threshold regression model, we obtain two regime-dependent marginal effects of regressors (upper and lower regimes) that are distinguished by a threshold value of IQ. Our results reveal that for each of our considered IQ, there exists a statistically significant threshold value. For public debt, across all dimensions of IQ debt hurts growth in the lower regime, while in the upper regime the association is favourable. While private debt is growth enhancing in the lower regime of all IQs (excepting corruption), while it is inimical in the upper regime.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47229211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2170443
Erlan Konebayev
In this paper, we assess the forecasting performance of three types of structural models – DSGE, BVAR with Minnesota priors, and DSGE-BVAR – in the context of a commodity-exporting small open developing economy using the data for Kazakhstan. We find that BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models generally produce point forecasts that are more accurate and less biased compared to those of DSGE in the short term, but that BVAR forecasts rapidly deteriorate in quality as the length of the forecast horizon increases. The density forecast analysis shows that when all variables are jointly considered, the models have similar prediction accuracy, and when financial sector variables are omitted, the BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models demonstrate superior performance in the short term.
{"title":"Forecasting a Commodity-Exporting Small Open Developing Economy Using DSGE and DSGE-BVAR","authors":"Erlan Konebayev","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2170443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2170443","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we assess the forecasting performance of three types of structural models – DSGE, BVAR with Minnesota priors, and DSGE-BVAR – in the context of a commodity-exporting small open developing economy using the data for Kazakhstan. We find that BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models generally produce point forecasts that are more accurate and less biased compared to those of DSGE in the short term, but that BVAR forecasts rapidly deteriorate in quality as the length of the forecast horizon increases. The density forecast analysis shows that when all variables are jointly considered, the models have similar prediction accuracy, and when financial sector variables are omitted, the BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models demonstrate superior performance in the short term.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49064383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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