Pub Date : 2023-03-08DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2184845
S. Bagchi, Sayantan Bandhu Majumder, Somdutta Banerjee
ABSTRACT The last decade witnessed global debt levels to reach record high. In Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) like never before, the (public and private) debt–GDP ratio has been dismally high. An upward spree of the debt–GDP ratio coupled with a looming economic crisis led to concerns about institutional qualities (IQ). We explore how different dimensions of IQ (namely, political, legal and governance) impact the debt–growth relationship in the EMDEs amidst the current fourth wave of debt (2010–2019). We examine whether the relation is monotonic or it varies around a particular threshold value of IQ. By applying a dynamic panel threshold regression model, we obtain two regime-dependent marginal effects of regressors (upper and lower regimes) that are distinguished by a threshold value of IQ. Our results reveal that for each of our considered IQ, there exists a statistically significant threshold value. For public debt, across all dimensions of IQ debt hurts growth in the lower regime, while in the upper regime the association is favourable. While private debt is growth enhancing in the lower regime of all IQs (excepting corruption), while it is inimical in the upper regime.
{"title":"Institutions Determine Debt–Growth Relationship: Evidence from Fourth Wave of Debt in EMDEs","authors":"S. Bagchi, Sayantan Bandhu Majumder, Somdutta Banerjee","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2184845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2184845","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The last decade witnessed global debt levels to reach record high. In Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) like never before, the (public and private) debt–GDP ratio has been dismally high. An upward spree of the debt–GDP ratio coupled with a looming economic crisis led to concerns about institutional qualities (IQ). We explore how different dimensions of IQ (namely, political, legal and governance) impact the debt–growth relationship in the EMDEs amidst the current fourth wave of debt (2010–2019). We examine whether the relation is monotonic or it varies around a particular threshold value of IQ. By applying a dynamic panel threshold regression model, we obtain two regime-dependent marginal effects of regressors (upper and lower regimes) that are distinguished by a threshold value of IQ. Our results reveal that for each of our considered IQ, there exists a statistically significant threshold value. For public debt, across all dimensions of IQ debt hurts growth in the lower regime, while in the upper regime the association is favourable. While private debt is growth enhancing in the lower regime of all IQs (excepting corruption), while it is inimical in the upper regime.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"245 - 269"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47229211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-08DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2182814
Mert Akyuz, Ghislain Nono Gueye, Cagin Karul
The relatively small panel cointegration literature on the dynamics between FDI and income inequality predominantly finds that FDI will reduce income inequality in the long-run in developed countries. However, we point out an important technical oversight in the literature. Not accounting for cross-section dependence in panel data methodologies may yield unreliable results. Expanding on the work of Herzer and Nunnenkamp [(2013). Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: Evidence from Europe. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 395–422. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0148-3], who pioneered the use of panel cointegration in the European context, we obtain different results when we account for cross-section dependence and employ economic procedures robust to it. Using a panel containing 16 OECD countries (1979–2017), 2 income inequality measures, and 4 FDI measures, we begin by showing strong evidence for the existence of cross-section dependence. Then, using second-generation econometric procedures, we do not find any evidence for a cointegrating relationship between inward FDI and income inequality. We do find evidence that outward FDI is cointegrated with income inequality; however, contrary to the main results of the literature, we find that it widens the income gap in the long-run. Additionally, our results support the view that fiscal policy is an important tool to reduce income inequality.
{"title":"Revisiting the Long-Run Relationship Between Inward/Outward FDI and Income Inequality: New Evidence from the OECD","authors":"Mert Akyuz, Ghislain Nono Gueye, Cagin Karul","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2182814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2182814","url":null,"abstract":"The relatively small panel cointegration literature on the dynamics between FDI and income inequality predominantly finds that FDI will reduce income inequality in the long-run in developed countries. However, we point out an important technical oversight in the literature. Not accounting for cross-section dependence in panel data methodologies may yield unreliable results. Expanding on the work of Herzer and Nunnenkamp [(2013). Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: Evidence from Europe. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 395–422. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0148-3], who pioneered the use of panel cointegration in the European context, we obtain different results when we account for cross-section dependence and employ economic procedures robust to it. Using a panel containing 16 OECD countries (1979–2017), 2 income inequality measures, and 4 FDI measures, we begin by showing strong evidence for the existence of cross-section dependence. Then, using second-generation econometric procedures, we do not find any evidence for a cointegrating relationship between inward FDI and income inequality. We do find evidence that outward FDI is cointegrated with income inequality; however, contrary to the main results of the literature, we find that it widens the income gap in the long-run. Additionally, our results support the view that fiscal policy is an important tool to reduce income inequality.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"220 - 244"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43791534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2169738
M. Park, Jungwon Yeo
This paper examines intra-household peer effects in the adoption of smartphones using unique South Korean panel data. Consistent estimation of peer effects in this setting needs to address two key challenges: homophily and endogenous sample attrition. We address both challenges and obtain consistent estimates of peer effects, by first-differencing the individual-level panel data and then using longer differences of the independent variables as instruments. The estimation results show that an individual becomes much more likely to adopt a smartphone if other household members have previously adopted one. The analysis also reveals that failure to account for endogenous attrition of individuals after product adoption would lead to a significant under-estimation of peer effects.
{"title":"Intra-Household Peer Effects in Smartphone Adoption","authors":"M. Park, Jungwon Yeo","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2169738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2169738","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines intra-household peer effects in the adoption of smartphones using unique South Korean panel data. Consistent estimation of peer effects in this setting needs to address two key challenges: homophily and endogenous sample attrition. We address both challenges and obtain consistent estimates of peer effects, by first-differencing the individual-level panel data and then using longer differences of the independent variables as instruments. The estimation results show that an individual becomes much more likely to adopt a smartphone if other household members have previously adopted one. The analysis also reveals that failure to account for endogenous attrition of individuals after product adoption would lead to a significant under-estimation of peer effects.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"1 - 16"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47708355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2170443
Erlan Konebayev
In this paper, we assess the forecasting performance of three types of structural models – DSGE, BVAR with Minnesota priors, and DSGE-BVAR – in the context of a commodity-exporting small open developing economy using the data for Kazakhstan. We find that BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models generally produce point forecasts that are more accurate and less biased compared to those of DSGE in the short term, but that BVAR forecasts rapidly deteriorate in quality as the length of the forecast horizon increases. The density forecast analysis shows that when all variables are jointly considered, the models have similar prediction accuracy, and when financial sector variables are omitted, the BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models demonstrate superior performance in the short term.
{"title":"Forecasting a Commodity-Exporting Small Open Developing Economy Using DSGE and DSGE-BVAR","authors":"Erlan Konebayev","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2170443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2170443","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we assess the forecasting performance of three types of structural models – DSGE, BVAR with Minnesota priors, and DSGE-BVAR – in the context of a commodity-exporting small open developing economy using the data for Kazakhstan. We find that BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models generally produce point forecasts that are more accurate and less biased compared to those of DSGE in the short term, but that BVAR forecasts rapidly deteriorate in quality as the length of the forecast horizon increases. The density forecast analysis shows that when all variables are jointly considered, the models have similar prediction accuracy, and when financial sector variables are omitted, the BVAR and DSGE-BVAR models demonstrate superior performance in the short term.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"39 - 70"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49064383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2176903
Yun-Yun Bai, Keun-Yeob Oh
Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002, the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) notifications has increased rapidly. This study investigates the impact of China’s imposition of TBTs on the exports of Korean manufacturing-industry from 2002 to 2014. We focus on the following aspects: exports in terms of value-added, a comparison of exports of final goods with exports of intermediate goods, and specific trade concerns (STCs). Our findings are as follows. First, China’s TBTs have an insignificant impact on Korean manufacturing exports to China when we investigate the whole manufacturing industry sector. Second, as a result of analyzing final goods and intermediate goods separately, we do not find a significant effect of TBTs on the export of intermediate goods, whereas they have negative effects on the export of final goods. This is in line with our expectations that China does not want to restrict the import of intermediate goods. Third, further analysis of the relationship between exports and TBT STCs is conducted. However, we find no additional negative effect of TBT STCs on exports. Fourth, the impact of TBTs on exports in value-added terms does not seem to differ from the impact on total gross exports.
{"title":"A Study of the Effects of China’s TBT Notifications on Korean Exports","authors":"Yun-Yun Bai, Keun-Yeob Oh","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2176903","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2176903","url":null,"abstract":"Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002, the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) notifications has increased rapidly. This study investigates the impact of China’s imposition of TBTs on the exports of Korean manufacturing-industry from 2002 to 2014. We focus on the following aspects: exports in terms of value-added, a comparison of exports of final goods with exports of intermediate goods, and specific trade concerns (STCs). Our findings are as follows. First, China’s TBTs have an insignificant impact on Korean manufacturing exports to China when we investigate the whole manufacturing industry sector. Second, as a result of analyzing final goods and intermediate goods separately, we do not find a significant effect of TBTs on the export of intermediate goods, whereas they have negative effects on the export of final goods. This is in line with our expectations that China does not want to restrict the import of intermediate goods. Third, further analysis of the relationship between exports and TBT STCs is conducted. However, we find no additional negative effect of TBT STCs on exports. Fourth, the impact of TBTs on exports in value-added terms does not seem to differ from the impact on total gross exports.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"120 - 136"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45730856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2169868
Wisarut Suwanprasert
Recent empirical studies find that the magnitudes of reductions in bilateral shipping costs are asymmetric within country pairs. Motivated by these findings, I study the welfare effects of asymmetric reductions in transportation costs in Helpman and Itskhoki's [(2010). Labour market rigidities, trade and unemployment. Review of Economic Studies, 77(3), 1100–1137] model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and frictional labor markets. I show that sufficiently asymmetric reductions in bilateral transportation costs result in welfare losses in the importing country, while a uniform reduction in the bilateral transportation costs of both imports and exports always benefits both countries. This paper raises a cautionary note that the phrase ‘welfare gains from trade liberalization’ implicitly assumes an ‘approximately equal’ reduction in transportation costs.
{"title":"An Inconvenient Truth: Welfare Losses From Asymmetric Reductions in Transportation Costs","authors":"Wisarut Suwanprasert","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2023.2169868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2023.2169868","url":null,"abstract":"Recent empirical studies find that the magnitudes of reductions in bilateral shipping costs are asymmetric within country pairs. Motivated by these findings, I study the welfare effects of asymmetric reductions in transportation costs in Helpman and Itskhoki's [(2010). Labour market rigidities, trade and unemployment. Review of Economic Studies, 77(3), 1100–1137] model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and frictional labor markets. I show that sufficiently asymmetric reductions in bilateral transportation costs result in welfare losses in the importing country, while a uniform reduction in the bilateral transportation costs of both imports and exports always benefits both countries. This paper raises a cautionary note that the phrase ‘welfare gains from trade liberalization’ implicitly assumes an ‘approximately equal’ reduction in transportation costs.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"71 - 81"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41538483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-06DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2022.2153899
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, Jungho Baek
International trade includes trade not just in goods but also in services. Introduction of internet technology has helped to boost trade in services by more than trade in goods. What has been the role of the exchange rate in this journey? While many studies have investigated the link between the exchange rate and trade in goods, only three studies in the literature have assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on trade in services. Two have used data from the U.S., and one from China. We add to this new emerging literature by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric effects of changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won on Korean trade in 10 service categories with the rest of the world. Considering the symmetric (linear) models and asymmetric (nonlinear) models to be complementary, we find short-run effects of imports and exports of almost all 10 service industries. Short-run effects translate into the long run in little over 50% of industries. These findings did not change significantly when we considered real trade in services versus nominal trade. Our findings were industry-specific.
{"title":"Korean Trade in 10 Service Industries and Role of the Won? An Asymmetric Analysis","authors":"Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, Jungho Baek","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2022.2153899","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2022.2153899","url":null,"abstract":"International trade includes trade not just in goods but also in services. Introduction of internet technology has helped to boost trade in services by more than trade in goods. What has been the role of the exchange rate in this journey? While many studies have investigated the link between the exchange rate and trade in goods, only three studies in the literature have assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on trade in services. Two have used data from the U.S., and one from China. We add to this new emerging literature by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric effects of changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won on Korean trade in 10 service categories with the rest of the world. Considering the symmetric (linear) models and asymmetric (nonlinear) models to be complementary, we find short-run effects of imports and exports of almost all 10 service industries. Short-run effects translate into the long run in little over 50% of industries. These findings did not change significantly when we considered real trade in services versus nominal trade. Our findings were industry-specific.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"93 - 119"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42989494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-05DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2022.2153900
Jinyong Kim
The forward premium anomaly, which refers to the empirical failure of the uncovered interest parity (UIP), has been primarily examined by the forward premium regression of [Fama, E. (1984). Forward and spot exchange rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14(3), 319–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(84)90046-1]. Some studies apply the rolling-window regression to capture the time-varying coefficient on the forward premium, with difficulty in statistically testing the deviation of the coefficient from the UIP over time. We follow [Baillie, R., & Kim, K. (2015). Was it risk? Or was it fundamentals? Explaining excess currency returns with kernel smoothed regressions. Journal of Empirical Finance, 34, 99–111] to apply the simultaneous inference procedure to the Korean Won-US Dollar spot and forward exchange rates by estimating the time-varying coefficient from the kernel-smoothed local-linear regression and constructing the uniform confidence band to test the local deviation. We find that, while the UIP is not rejected from the baseline regression, the simultaneous inference shows that the deviation from the UIP is mainly observed during the early 2000s and 2010s. Time-variation of the forward premium coefficient tends to be significantly affected by economic uncertainties such as the interest rate, inflation, and stock return volatilities in Korea and US.
{"title":"Simultaneous Inference on the Korean Won-US Dollar Forward Premium Anomaly","authors":"Jinyong Kim","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2022.2153900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2022.2153900","url":null,"abstract":"The forward premium anomaly, which refers to the empirical failure of the uncovered interest parity (UIP), has been primarily examined by the forward premium regression of [Fama, E. (1984). Forward and spot exchange rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14(3), 319–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(84)90046-1]. Some studies apply the rolling-window regression to capture the time-varying coefficient on the forward premium, with difficulty in statistically testing the deviation of the coefficient from the UIP over time. We follow [Baillie, R., & Kim, K. (2015). Was it risk? Or was it fundamentals? Explaining excess currency returns with kernel smoothed regressions. Journal of Empirical Finance, 34, 99–111] to apply the simultaneous inference procedure to the Korean Won-US Dollar spot and forward exchange rates by estimating the time-varying coefficient from the kernel-smoothed local-linear regression and constructing the uniform confidence band to test the local deviation. We find that, while the UIP is not rejected from the baseline regression, the simultaneous inference shows that the deviation from the UIP is mainly observed during the early 2000s and 2010s. Time-variation of the forward premium coefficient tends to be significantly affected by economic uncertainties such as the interest rate, inflation, and stock return volatilities in Korea and US.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"37 1","pages":"82 - 92"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41660309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-02DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2022.2142643
T. Le, L. Niem, Taegil Kim
This paper investigates the changes in export quality among ASEAN countries over time by using the economic complexity index. Specifically, we used HS 6-digit detailed trade data for 197 countries over the period from 2000-2017. The results show that the economic complexity of most ASEAN countries, except for Cambodia, Laos, and Indonesia, has improved. The export baskets of ASEAN countries are shifting from low complexity products to medium and high complexity products. We also evaluate the export quality of countries using weighted product complexity, which shows that the export quality of ASEAN countries has improved. The regression results show that economic complexity has positive effects on economic growth, and they also show that infrastructure, education level, trade openness, and financial openness contribute to the development of countries. However, the impact extent of economic complexity varies among different ASEAN countries; for example, its impact is weaker in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia but stronger in Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines.
{"title":"Economic Complexity and Economic Development in ASEAN Countries","authors":"T. Le, L. Niem, Taegil Kim","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2022.2142643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2022.2142643","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the changes in export quality among ASEAN countries over time by using the economic complexity index. Specifically, we used HS 6-digit detailed trade data for 197 countries over the period from 2000-2017. The results show that the economic complexity of most ASEAN countries, except for Cambodia, Laos, and Indonesia, has improved. The export baskets of ASEAN countries are shifting from low complexity products to medium and high complexity products. We also evaluate the export quality of countries using weighted product complexity, which shows that the export quality of ASEAN countries has improved. The regression results show that economic complexity has positive effects on economic growth, and they also show that infrastructure, education level, trade openness, and financial openness contribute to the development of countries. However, the impact extent of economic complexity varies among different ASEAN countries; for example, its impact is weaker in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia but stronger in Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"36 1","pages":"556 - 568"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45480847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-02DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2022.2144926
Jungwon Yeo
The rise of e-commerce and globalization has led to a surge in product variety. As a result, consumers are now able to purchase products that meet their specific needs and wants. A rise of such niche consumption may be evidenced by a long-tailed market share distribution, or falling aggregate spending concentration accompanied by rising consumer spending concentration. In this paper, I propose a more direct method to uncover whether consumers become similar or different in the products they spend more on. Using Nielsen's consumer panel data, I compute cosine similarity scores for each pair of household shopping baskets represented by the expenditure share distributions. I find the households' grocery baskets became increasingly different from one another from 2005 to 2019 regardless of whether products are defined narrowly or broadly. But, when products are broadly defined as brands, the aggregate and individual consumer spending concentration both rise from 2015 and on. This shows the consumer shopping basket similarity approach can unveil patterns of niche consumption even when consumer and aggregate spending concentration move in the same direction.
{"title":"The Rise of Niche Consumption: A Shopping Basket Similarity Approach","authors":"Jungwon Yeo","doi":"10.1080/10168737.2022.2144926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2022.2144926","url":null,"abstract":"The rise of e-commerce and globalization has led to a surge in product variety. As a result, consumers are now able to purchase products that meet their specific needs and wants. A rise of such niche consumption may be evidenced by a long-tailed market share distribution, or falling aggregate spending concentration accompanied by rising consumer spending concentration. In this paper, I propose a more direct method to uncover whether consumers become similar or different in the products they spend more on. Using Nielsen's consumer panel data, I compute cosine similarity scores for each pair of household shopping baskets represented by the expenditure share distributions. I find the households' grocery baskets became increasingly different from one another from 2005 to 2019 regardless of whether products are defined narrowly or broadly. But, when products are broadly defined as brands, the aggregate and individual consumer spending concentration both rise from 2015 and on. This shows the consumer shopping basket similarity approach can unveil patterns of niche consumption even when consumer and aggregate spending concentration move in the same direction.","PeriodicalId":35933,"journal":{"name":"INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"36 1","pages":"491 - 509"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48714356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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