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Contracting with Enemies? Vertical FDI with Outsourcing Contracts 与敌人签约?纵向FDI与外包合同
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2242844
JaeBin Ahn, Jee-Hyeong Park
An exploration of Korean MNCs' foreign affiliate-level data reveals that a significant portion of manufacturing foreign affiliates sell both to related and unrelated firms at the same time. We refer to this as hybrid vertical FDI. We rationalize the presence of hybrid vertical FDI by modifying the otherwise standard property-rights model of global sourcing with the subsidiary-level option of supplying inputs to unrelated customers in addition to related firms. Given the positive production externality from serving additional customers (that is proportional to the MNC's productivity) and the costs of getting such benefit (that are increasing in relationship-specificity of the outsourced inputs), the model generates following testable hypotheses: Both MNCs' likelihood of choosing hybrid over pure vertical FDI and their foreign affiliate firms' related-firm sales ratio over unrelated-firm go up when the productivity of foreign affiliates increases (but such tendencies weaken when contractual complexity goes up), which our subsequent empirical analysis robustly confirms.
对韩国跨国公司海外子公司层面数据的研究表明,很大一部分制造型外国子公司同时向相关公司和不相关公司出售产品。我们称之为混合型垂直FDI。我们通过对标准的全球采购产权模型进行修改,并在相关企业之外向不相关的客户提供投入的辅助层面选择,从而使混合垂直FDI的存在合理化。考虑到服务额外客户带来的正生产外部性(与跨国公司的生产率成正比)和获得这种利益的成本(外包投入的关系特异性正在增加),该模型产生了以下可检验的假设:当外国子公司的生产率提高时,跨国公司选择混合型直接投资而不是纯垂直型直接投资的可能性以及它们的外国子公司的关联公司销售比高于非关联公司的可能性都会上升(但当合同复杂性上升时,这种趋势会减弱),我们随后的实证分析有力地证实了这一点。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic Effects of Long-Term Care Insurance on Healthcare Expenditures: Evidence from South Korea 长期医疗保险对医疗支出的动态影响:来自韩国的证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2229287
Honsoo Kim, S. Kim, Wonshik Kim, Kyung Hoon Yang
Long-term care expenses pose a large financial risk to the elderly. In 2008, South Korea introduced a public long-term care insurance (LTCI) program for individuals older than 65. We study the dynamic effects of the LTCI on various healthcare expenditures. We find that after the implementation of the LTCI, average prescription drug and outpatient expenditures of the elderly increased. Dynamically, we observe that the growth in these expenditures moderates. We also find suggestive evidence that after the introduction of the LTCI, the elderly may utilize LTC hospitals instead of inpatient hospital services. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the long-term effects of LTCI on health and healthcare expenditures of the elderly and the need to account for interactions between LTC and other types of healthcare services in policy design.
长期护理费用给老年人带来了巨大的经济风险。2008年,韩国推出了一项针对65岁以上个人的公共长期护理保险计划。我们研究了LTCI对各种医疗支出的动态影响。我们发现,LTCI实施后,老年人的平均处方药和门诊支出有所增加。从动态上看,我们观察到这些支出的增长放缓。我们还发现,有提示性证据表明,在引入LTCI后,老年人可能会使用LTC医院而不是住院医院服务。这些发现强调了理解LTCI对老年人健康和医疗支出的长期影响的重要性,以及在政策设计中考虑LTC和其他类型医疗服务之间相互作用的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Revitalizing Women's Labor Force Participation in North Africa: An Exploration of Novel Empowerment Pathways 振兴北非妇女劳动力参与:探索新的赋权途径
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2227161
Aomar Ibourk, Zakaria Elouaourti
ABSTRACT This paper explores new pathways to women's empowerment, including household structure, family support, satisfaction and self-esteem, and trust in institutions and politicians, and their impact on labor market participation, with a specific focus on gender differences. Using a microeconomic database of 7,860 individuals from North Africa and employing a Probit model, we find that gender significantly influences labor market participation. Surprisingly, our results reveal that education operates in an unexpected direction in the North African region, confirming the “MENA paradox”. Moreover, household structure's impact on labor decisions varies by gender, as gender norms prevalent in male-dominated societies hinder women's labor market participation, leading to a “marriage penalty.” In a similar vein, our estimations reveal a significant positive correlation between men's belief that “men should have greater job rights than women during scarce work periods” and their labor force participation, shedding light on the influential role of gender norms in North Africa. Our study emphasizes the critical role of networking, social capital, and how North Africans' perception of political life impedes their labor force participation. As for policy implications, our contribution illuminates new pathways for women's empowerment, advocating for comprehensive legislative reforms to promote gender equality and foster inclusive development.
摘要本文探讨了赋予妇女权力的新途径,包括家庭结构、家庭支持、满意度和自尊、对机构和政治家的信任,以及它们对劳动力市场参与的影响,特别关注性别差异。使用北非7860人的微观经济数据库,并采用Probit模型,我们发现性别对劳动力市场参与有显著影响。令人惊讶的是,我们的研究结果显示,北非地区的教育正朝着一个意想不到的方向发展,这证实了“中东和北非悖论”。此外,家庭结构对劳动力决策的影响因性别而异,因为男性主导的社会中普遍存在的性别规范阻碍了女性参与劳动力市场,导致了“婚姻惩罚”,我们的估计揭示了男性认为“在稀缺的工作时间里,男性应该比女性拥有更大的工作权利”与他们的劳动力参与之间的显著正相关,从而揭示了性别规范在北非的影响作用。我们的研究强调了网络、社会资本的关键作用,以及北非人对政治生活的看法如何阻碍他们的劳动力参与。关于政策影响,我们的贡献阐明了赋予妇女权力的新途径,倡导全面的立法改革,以促进性别平等和促进包容性发展。
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引用次数: 2
Quantifying the Effect of Economic Sanctions on Trade in Cultural Goods 量化经济制裁对文化产品贸易的影响
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2220300
N. Doan, M. Tran
The question of whether the imposition of economic sanctions impairs or nurtures cultural affinity remains controversial. In effect, this paper investigates the effect of economic sanctions on the trade of cultural goods as a proxy for cultural proximity, using cross-country data with 5,304 country pairs ranging from the years 1996–2019. Through extensive robustness checks, our main findings reveal that economic sanctions drive up the trade of cultural goods. The effect on the trade of cultural goods is heterogeneous across various forms of economic sanctions. While military, arms, trade, and travel sanctions are trade facilitators, financial and other sanctions are trade barriers. These effects are conditional on the level of economic development in the sanctioned countries and change over time. Our findings suggest cultural implications of economic sanctions in foreign policy design.
实施经济制裁是否会损害或促进文化亲和力的问题仍然存在争议。实际上,本文使用1996年至2019年期间5304个国家对的跨国数据,研究了经济制裁对文化商品贸易的影响,作为文化接近性的代表。通过广泛的稳健性检验,我们的主要发现表明,经济制裁推动了文化产品的贸易。不同形式的经济制裁对文化产品贸易的影响是不同的。军事、武器、贸易和旅行制裁是贸易促进手段,而金融和其他制裁则是贸易壁垒。这些影响取决于受制裁国家的经济发展水平,并随着时间的推移而变化。我们的研究结果表明,经济制裁对外交政策设计的文化影响。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Oil and Agricultural Shocks on the Financial Markets of Emerging Market Economies 石油和农业冲击对新兴市场经济体金融市场的影响
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2207086
L. Attílio
We assess oil and agricultural price shocks in the financial markets of six EMEs (Brazil, Chile, Mexico, India, South Africa, and Turkey) using the GVAR. Positive oil price shocks provoke falls in all stock markets, devaluations in four domestic currencies, and tight monetary policies in two economies. The variance decomposition indicated that this shock is more influential in the stock markets, followed by the exchange rates. Compared to the oil price, shocks in agricultural prices caused appreciations in all domestic currencies. This shock is pervasive in all exchange markets in the first months, losing importance over time. The distinct responses to different commodities shocks point out that the kind of shock is relevant to comprehend its influence on EMEs. We detected relevant heterogeneities concerning the spreading of commodities shocks on domestic financial markets, especially in South Africa.
我们使用GVAR评估了六个新兴市场经济体(巴西、智利、墨西哥、印度、南非和土耳其)金融市场的石油和农产品价格冲击。积极的油价冲击导致所有股市下跌,四种本国货币贬值,两个经济体实行紧缩货币政策。方差分解表明,这种冲击对股市的影响更大,其次是汇率。与石油价格相比,农产品价格的冲击导致所有本国货币升值。在最初的几个月里,这种冲击在所有交易所市场都很普遍,随着时间的推移,其重要性逐渐减弱。对不同商品冲击的不同反应表明,这种冲击与理解其对新兴市场经济体的影响有关。我们发现,大宗商品冲击在国内金融市场,特别是在南非的蔓延存在相关的异质性。
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引用次数: 1
Unequal Welfare Gains From Trade Across Countries: The Role of Aggregation and Income Elasticities 各国贸易带来的不平等福利收益:聚集性和收入弹性的作用
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2207847
H. Yilmazkuday
Sectoral heterogeneity has been shown to affect country-level welfare gains from trade (measured by costs of autarky) that can be calculated by sector-specific trade elasticities and home expenditure shares. However, empirical analyses of multi-sector models are restricted to a limited number of countries and sectors, mostly due to the lack of data on sector-specific home expenditure shares. This paper first proposes a solution to this limitation by changing the way that foreign products are aggregated at the destination country, where ‘unbiased’ multi-sector welfare gains can be captured by using country-specific trade elasticity measures. Second, the restrictive assumption of unitary importer-income elasticity is relaxed, and it is shown that the trade elasticity in the calculation of welfare gains is replaced by the newly-introduced welfare elasticity, a function of trade and income elasticities. Empirical evidence suggests that equal percentage changes in home expenditure shares result in unequal gains across countries depending on their elasticity measures.
部门异质性已被证明会影响国家层面的贸易福利收益(以自给自足的成本衡量),这可以通过特定部门的贸易弹性和国内支出份额来计算。然而,多部门模型的实证分析仅限于有限数量的国家和部门,主要是由于缺乏特定部门家庭支出份额的数据。本文首先提出了一种解决这一限制的方法,即改变外国产品在目的地国的汇总方式,在目的地国,可以通过使用针对具体国家的贸易弹性措施来获取“无偏倚”的多部门福利收益。其次,放宽了单一进口收入弹性的限制性假设,并表明在福利收益计算中的贸易弹性被新引入的贸易和收入弹性的函数福利弹性所取代。经验证据表明,家庭支出份额的相同百分比变化导致各国之间的收益不平等,这取决于它们的弹性措施。
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引用次数: 0
Income Inequality and Economic Freedom Revisited: Are Freedom and Equality Conflicting Values? Evidence from the twenty-first Century 重新审视收入不平等与经济自由:自由和平等是相互冲突的价值观吗?来自21世纪的证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2212251
Daniel Machado, J. Fuinhas
This empirical research addressed the short – and long-run relationship between economic freedom (and its subcomponents) and income inequality using a panel of 102 countries between 2000 and 2018. The results of employing an autoregressive distributed lag model showed that economic freedom has a detrimental impact on income inequality measured by any of the main inequality indicators. However, the results point to a relatively inelastic relationship. Additionally, the study explored the interactions between the subcomponents of economic freedom and income inequality, again pointing to a rigid relationship. While the size of the government and legal property rights increase income inequality, deregulation exerts the opposite effect. This paper closes with future guidelines for research.
这项实证研究利用2000年至2018年102个国家的小组研究了经济自由(及其子成分)与收入不平等之间的短期和长期关系。采用自回归分布滞后模型的结果表明,经济自由对任何主要不平等指标衡量的收入不平等都有不利影响。然而,结果指出了一种相对缺乏弹性的关系。此外,该研究探讨了经济自由和收入不平等的子组成部分之间的相互作用,再次指出了一种刚性关系。政府的规模和法定产权加剧了收入不平等,而放松管制则会产生相反的效果。本文最后提出了未来研究的指导方针。
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引用次数: 0
How ICTs Moderate the Effect of Global Value Chains’ Participation on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? 信息通信技术如何调节全球价值链参与对撒哈拉以南非洲经济增长的影响?
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2212268
Hodabalo Bataka, Wonyra Kwami Ossadzifo
Using data from Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1990–2015, this study examines the effects of Global Value Chains’ (GVCs) participation on economic growth by distinguishing participation in upstream, participation in downstream and sectors-based participation. The study also focuses on how the economic growth effect of GVCs’ participation can be affected by the ICTs. The Driscoll and Kraay’ estimation approach applied to the cross-lagged panel model enabled to overcome the cross-sectional dependence, heteroscedasticity, errors’ autocorrelation and reverse causality problems. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is further employed for the robustness check. The findings are robust and indicate that the GVCs’ participation (general, upstream, downstream and sectorial) boosts economic growth in SSA countries. These positive effects hold and are even more intensive when the GVCs’ participation is modulated by the ICTs. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that SSA countries should focus on the downstream GVCs’ participation that is the production and export of the (high technologies) intermediate goods that are essential for the production activities of other GVCs’ stakeholders. For the sectors-based participation, the study seems to show that participation in the services sector promotes more economic growth, followed to some extent by the mining, agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
本研究利用撒哈拉以南非洲国家1990-2015年期间的数据,通过区分上游参与、下游参与和基于部门的参与,考察了全球价值链参与对经济增长的影响。该研究还侧重于全球价值链参与的经济增长效应如何受到信通技术的影响。将Driscoll和Kraay的估计方法应用于交叉滞后面板模型,能够克服横截面相关性、异方差性、误差的自相关和反向因果关系问题。进一步采用广义矩量法(GMM)进行鲁棒性检验。研究结果有力,表明全球价值链的参与(一般、上游、下游和部门)促进了撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经济增长。当全球价值链的参与受到信通技术的调节时,这些积极影响会持续存在,甚至更加强烈。此外,该研究表明,SSA国家应关注下游全球价值链的参与,即对其他全球价值链利益相关者的生产活动至关重要的(高科技)中间产品的生产和出口。对于基于部门的参与,研究似乎表明,服务业的参与促进了更多的经济增长,采矿、农业和制造业在一定程度上紧随其后。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting Exchange Rates with Neural Networks: Time Variation, Nonstationarity, and Causal Models 用神经网络预测汇率:时间变化、非平稳性和因果模型
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2194292
Gordon Reikard
There are two major issues in using artificial intelligence to forecast exchange rates, choice of methodology and choice of causal models. A further complication is the nonstationarity of the data. This study compares artificial neural networks, nonlinear regressions and recurrent neural networks, using seven econometric models, in forecasting four major exchange rates over horizons of 1–3 months. The models are trained over moving windows and estimated in both levels and differences. There are three key findings. First, the multilayer perceptron nearly always achieves the most accurate forecasts, with the regressions in second place. The recurrent neural network places a distant third. Second, at horizons of 1 and 2 months, the perceptron is usually better in differences. At the 3-month horizon, however, the accuracy in differences deteriorates. Third, the perceptron favors models including international differentials in price levels, interest rates and yields, which achieve the best forecasts in the majority of cases. Several other models are competitive. One is the familiar Dornbusch-Frankel equation which uses differentials in inflation, output, interest rates and money supplies. Another is a combined model, the Dornbusch-Frankel equation with an additional term for the yield differential. Models using differentials in real interest rates do well in one instance.
使用人工智能预测汇率有两个主要问题,方法的选择和因果模型的选择。更为复杂的是数据的非平稳性。本研究使用七个计量经济学模型,比较了人工神经网络、非线性回归和递归神经网络在1-3个月内预测四种主要汇率的情况。模型在移动窗口上进行训练,并在水平和差异方面进行估计。有三个关键发现。首先,多层感知器几乎总是能实现最准确的预测,回归排在第二位。递归神经网络远远排在第三位。其次,在1个月和2个月的视野中,感知器通常在差异方面更好。然而,在3个月的时间里,差异的准确性会下降。第三,感知器支持包括价格水平、利率和收益率的国际差异在内的模型,这些模型在大多数情况下都能实现最佳预测。其他几款车型也很有竞争力。一个是人们熟悉的多恩布什-弗兰克尔方程,它使用通货膨胀、产出、利率和货币供应的差异。另一个是一个组合模型,多恩布什-弗兰克尔方程,其中包含一个额外的收益微分项。使用实际利率差异的模型在一个例子中表现良好。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Social Trust on Property Right Protection: Physical Property Versus Intellectual Property 社会信任在产权保护中的作用:实物产权与知识产权
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2023.2193159
Thuy Tuong Nguyen, T. H. Duong, Myehue Dinh, T. T. M. Truong, T. H. H. Pham
While there have been numerous papers analyzing the political, economic and social effects of trust, there is little evidence on how social trust has an impact on property rights protection which is fundamental for promoting economic development. This study aims to investigate how trust value is related to property rights protection, focusing on the comparison of the effect on intellectual property rights versus physical property rights. Analyzing the data on property rights protection in 2015 from the Property Right Alliance organization and trust value from the World Value Survey from 1999 to 2014, we find that social trust has a direct effect only on intellectual property rights protection but less consistent on physical property rights protection. However, trust value has indirect effect on both forms of property rights protection via formal institutions. Our study, thus, adds to the literature by clarifying the context through which trust value affects cheating behaviors.
虽然有很多论文分析了信任的政治、经济和社会效应,但很少有证据表明社会信任对促进经济发展的基础产权保护有什么影响。本研究旨在探讨信任价值与产权保护之间的关系,重点比较信任价值对知识产权和实物产权的影响。通过分析产权联盟组织2015年的产权保护数据和1999 - 2014年世界价值调查的信任值,我们发现社会信任仅对知识产权保护有直接影响,而对实物产权保护的影响不太一致。然而,信任价值对两种形式的正式制度产权保护都有间接影响。因此,我们的研究通过澄清信任价值影响欺骗行为的背景,增加了文献。
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引用次数: 0
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL
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