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System risk management policy in banking 银行系统风险管理政策
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2303057k
Snežana Krstić, Aleksandar Savić, Radan Kostić
The goal of this article is to analyze the concept of system risk. The article reviews many definitions of system risk in various literatures. In addition, the article identifies factors that contribute to raising system risk, spreading infection, and provides a conceptual plan linking these phenomena. System risk can be defined as the risk that shock will result in such a significant materialization (eg macro financial) of imbalances that it expands on a scale that disrupts the functioning of the financial system and to the extent that negatively affects the real economy (eg economic growth). The draft of this plan aims to break down and clearly categorize the processes of accumulation, materialization and spread of system risk. This should facilitate its identification and subsequent mitigation by allocating appropriate preventive macroprudential measures.
本文的目的是分析系统风险的概念。本文回顾了各种文献中关于系统风险的定义。此外,本文还确定了增加系统风险、传播感染的因素,并提供了将这些现象联系起来的概念性计划。系统风险可以定义为这样一种风险,即冲击将导致失衡的显著具体化(如宏观金融),以至于它的规模扩大到破坏金融体系的功能,并在一定程度上对实体经济(如经济增长)产生负面影响。该计划草案旨在对系统风险的积累、具体化和扩散过程进行分解和明确分类。这应通过分配适当的预防性宏观审慎措施,促进其识别和随后的缓解。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of monetary policy on gross domestic product in the Republic of Serbia 货币政策对塞尔维亚共和国国内生产总值的影响
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2301081s
Miloš Stojanović, Sonja Becić, Goran Stojanović, J. Gligorijević
The aim of this paper is to carry out an analysis of the impact of the monetary and credit policy on the real economic flows in the Republic of Serbia. In order to answer to the given goal, a correlation and regression analysis was performed for the period from 2004 to 2020. The results of this analysis have shown that there is a strong influence of the monetary and credit policy on the gross domestic product of the Republic of Serbia. Based on the results of the conducted regression analysis, it was found that in the Republic of Serbia, with the growth of the monetary aggregate M2 by 1%, gross domestic product grew by 0.691%. It was also found that the growth of approved long-term loans by 1% had a positive impact on the growth of gross domestic product by 0.425%. These values point to the great importance of the monetary and credit policy on economic growth in the Republic of Serbia and the need to attach great importance to monetary policy in the future period.
本文的目的是对货币和信贷政策对塞尔维亚共和国实体经济流动的影响进行分析。为了回答给定的目标,对2004年至2020年进行了相关和回归分析。这一分析的结果表明,货币和信贷政策对塞尔维亚共和国的国内生产总值有很大的影响。根据所进行的回归分析结果,我们发现在塞尔维亚共和国,货币总量M2每增长1%,国内生产总值增长0.691%。研究还发现,批准的长期贷款每增长1%,对国内生产总值的增长有0.425%的积极影响。这些价值表明,货币和信贷政策对塞尔维亚共和国的经济增长非常重要,而且必须在今后时期高度重视货币政策。
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引用次数: 0
GIIPS and inflation convergence, two decades and few crisis later GIIPS和通胀趋同,二十年后几乎没有危机
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2301001p
Svetlana Popović
Paper analysis inflation convergence in Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS). These countries were severely hit by financial and debt crisis and had to undertake deflationary adjustment programs, thus we wanted to understand weather those conditions reduced imbalances in Eurozone. We used statistical indicators and indicators of s-convergence to study the diversity of their inflation processes. Unit root test on the series of standard deviations of inflation differentials was used to check statistical significance of inflation convergence. Data was divided in two subperiods, from 1997-2008, and 2009-2022, to understand the influence of crisis and austerity measures on asymmetries and divergence of inflation. Results showed significant convergence until the crisis, than differences started to increase. This findings are important while inflation rises since 2021, and it again brought significant divergence between members' inflation rates. Should we fear of a new debt crisis, were the differences sufficiently reduced and imbalances removed?
论文分析了希腊、意大利、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙(GIIPS)的通胀趋同。这些国家受到金融和债务危机的严重打击,不得不实施通货紧缩调整计划,因此我们希望了解这些条件是否减少了欧元区的失衡。我们使用统计指标和s收敛指标来研究它们的通货膨胀过程的多样性。对通货膨胀差异的一系列标准差进行单位根检验,检验通货膨胀收敛的统计显著性。数据被分为两个子时期,1997-2008年和2009-2022年,以了解危机和紧缩措施对通货膨胀不对称和分化的影响。结果显示出显著的趋同,直到危机爆发后,差异才开始加大。这一发现很重要,因为通货膨胀率自2021年以来一直在上升,这再次导致成员国之间的通货膨胀率出现显著差异。我们是否应该担心一场新的债务危机,分歧是否已经充分缩小,失衡是否已经消除?
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引用次数: 0
Innovations and impact on market competitiveness based on marketing research 基于市场调研的创新及其对市场竞争力的影响
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2302035p
Nedeljko Prdić, B. Kuzman
The aim of this paper is to define development and competitiveness strategy of marketplaces using innovations and service provision, on the bases of theoretical attitudes analysis and research results. Performed researches are based on implementation of special methods of cognition and marketing research. Research results show that marketplaces are very efficient instrument of achieving economic and communications aims. It is established that salesmen on marketplaces by conducting concrete and precise strategies of marketing communications, may achieve their aims in relations to competition and in purpose of costumers' satisfaction. Presented researches make solid foundation for investments by market places through innovations in business, and that increase competitiveness of marketplaces. This research is considered a good start in that direction. The conclusion is that informatics achievements development and technology implementation create possibility to control volume of scales and increase compliance of marketplaces based on respect of customers' attitudes.
本文的目的是在理论态度分析和研究结果的基础上,定义利用创新和服务提供的市场的发展和竞争力战略。已执行的研究基于认知和营销研究的特殊方法的实施。研究结果表明,市场是实现经济和交流目标的非常有效的工具。市场上的销售人员通过实施具体而精确的营销传播策略,可以实现他们在竞争和顾客满意度方面的目标。所提出的研究为市场通过商业创新进行投资奠定了坚实的基础,从而提高了市场的竞争力。这项研究被认为是这个方向的一个良好开端。结论是信息学成果的发展和技术的实施创造了在尊重顾客态度的基础上控制规模和增加市场合规性的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Information and communication technologies and rural development of Serbia 信息和通信技术与塞尔维亚农村发展
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2301069s
V. Stojić
The use of the information and communication technologies (ICTs) transforms ways of manufacturing, doing business, working, accessing public services, informing and communicating. They enable overcoming of both geographical distances and underdevelopment of infrastructures in rural regions and less developed ones. That is why ICTs can play an important role in encouraging economic development of rural areas, improvement of life quality of their population as well as lessening of social exclusion. The paper is focused upon the possibilities of invigorating rural development in Serbia on the basis of the ICTs use, primarily the Internet. The paper firstly points to the main features of the Serbian village development; then it analyses the Internet access in rural areas. Finally, it points to the ways in which the ICTs can be used for stimulating economic development of the Serbian village in addition to improving life quality of the rural population.
信息通信技术(ict)的使用改变了制造、经营、工作、获取公共服务、提供信息和通信的方式。它们能够克服地理距离和农村地区和较不发达地区基础设施不发达的问题。因此,信息通信技术可以在鼓励农村地区的经济发展、改善农村人口的生活质量以及减少社会排斥方面发挥重要作用。该文件的重点是在使用信息通信技术(主要是互联网)的基础上振兴塞尔维亚农村发展的可能性。本文首先指出了塞尔维亚乡村发展的主要特征;然后分析了农村地区的互联网接入情况。最后,报告指出,除了改善农村人口的生活品质外,资讯及通讯技术还可用于刺激塞尔维亚村庄的经济发展。
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引用次数: 0
Debatable Aspects of the Concept of Tax Expenditures 税收支出概念中有争议的方面
Pub Date : 2022-10-24 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.7
A. Sokolovska, T. Zatonatska
Despite the implementation of the concept of tax expenditures in the budgetary practice of many countries, theoretical studies of tax expenditures as a basis for their identification and quantification are still relevant. The emergence and development of the concept is accompanied by heated discussions about definition of normativе (benchmark) structure of tax and tax expenditures, as well as the classification of their individual elements. As a result, there is no uniform approach to defining the conceptual model of benchmark structure. This complicates the introduction of the concept of tax expenditures in those countries that set such a task for themselves, as well as their comparative qualitative and quantitative analysis in different countries. The purpose of this article is to generalize and further develop scientific approaches to determining the benchmark structure of the tax and its individual elements, as well as tax benefits and tax expenditures. The main results of this study are the classification of the main elements of the basic structure of the tax into groups and justification of their role in the identification of tax expenditures; defining “structural benefits” and “basic tax structure”; analysis of the report on other tax benefits in Ukraine and determination of the place and role of “structural benefits” in it.
尽管在许多国家的预算实践中实施了税收支出概念,但对税收支出进行理论研究作为其识别和量化的基础仍然具有重要意义。这一概念的产生和发展伴随着对税收和税收支出的规范(基准)结构的定义及其个别要素的分类的热烈讨论。因此,没有统一的方法来定义基准结构的概念模型。这就使在那些为自己设定了这一任务的国家引入税收支出概念以及在不同国家进行比较的定性和定量分析变得复杂。本文的目的是概括和进一步发展确定税收基准结构及其个别要素以及税收优惠和税收支出的科学方法。本研究的主要结果是对税收基本结构的主要要素进行了分类,并证明了它们在确定税收支出方面的作用;界定“结构性利益”和“基本税收结构”;分析关于乌克兰其他税收优惠的报告,并确定“结构性利益”在其中的地位和作用。
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引用次数: 3
Development of Energy Supply Infrastructure Based on Industry 4.0 (on the Example of Ukraine and Turkey) 基于工业4.0的能源供应基础设施发展(以乌克兰和土耳其为例)
Pub Date : 2022-10-03 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.5
O. Trofymenko, Serhii Voitko, S. Naraievskyi
The object of research was to identify the field of renewable energy for ensuring the process of gradual transition from traditional energy to carbon-free technologies. The article compares the opportunities for energy development, taking into account current trends in sustainable development. The conducted analysis of energy resources in the section of renewable energy is based on the processing of available sources of analytical and statistical information. The study investigates the structure and features of the functioning of the energy sector of Ukraine and Turkey. There have been revealed several common problems of functioning of energy spheres in Ukraine and Turkey. The article investigates the possibilities of using technological solutions and principles of Industry 4.0 in ensuring energy security through the development of the electric car market. The analysis consists of calculations of the efficient functioning of solar and wind energy for Ukraine and Turkey. The article provides recommendations for the development of possible mutually beneficial cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the field of renewable energy.
研究的目的是确定可再生能源领域,以确保从传统能源逐步过渡到无碳技术的过程。本文结合当前可持续发展的趋势,对能源发展的机遇进行了比较。在可再生能源部分对能源资源进行的分析是基于对现有分析和统计信息来源的处理。该研究调查了乌克兰和土耳其能源部门运作的结构和特点。在乌克兰和土耳其,能源领域的运作已经暴露出几个共同的问题。本文探讨了通过发展电动汽车市场,利用工业4.0的技术解决方案和原则来确保能源安全的可能性。该分析包括对乌克兰和土耳其太阳能和风能有效运作的计算。文章为乌克兰和土耳其在可再生能源领域开展可能的互利合作提供了建议。
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引用次数: 0
The Efficiency of Educational and Healthcare public expenditures in Kosovo: A Data Envelopment Analysis Technique 科索沃教育和医疗保健公共支出的效率:数据包络分析技术
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.6
Alban Elshani, Lekë Pula
This paper evaluates the performance and efficiency of the government public expenditure in the education and health sectors in the emerging economies context, specifically comparing Kosovo with the Western Balkan countries. The indicators of education and health sectors were used to assess a Public Sector Performance Index (PSP) and the Public Sector Efficiency Index (PSE). Also, this study uses the nonparametric method DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) to evaluate the input-output oriented efficiency. This study finds that education score of performance ranges from 0.43 which is the minimum to 1.48 which is the maximum. And in the health sector, the PSP score ranges from 0.81 which is the minimum to 1.09 which is the maximum. Kosovo ranks 41st out of 42 countries in this sample, in terms of the education sector, with a performance index of 0.67, which is 37% below the average of 1.00, whilst in terms of the health sector it ranks 39th out of 42 countries in the sample.In the analysis of the input output efficiency model in the education sector, the results show that the countries included in the study achieve an efficiency of 76.69 and it means that countries can reduce relevant public expenditure by 23.3% and maintain the same level of PSP in the education sector. Kosovo is assessed in this analysis as an inefficient country. The value of the input-oriented index is 40.24, which means that Kosovo can achieve the same level of performance in the education sector by using 60% less relative public expenditure, whilst, on the other hand, the input-output efficiency results for the health sector show that the efficiency score for countries is 47.64, and denotes that the countries in the sample could reduce 53% in health expenditure to achieve the same performance in the health sector. Thus, Kosovo compared to other countries in the sample is within the limits of production opportunities and uses public expenditure on health and education inefficiently.
本文评估了新兴经济体背景下政府公共支出在教育和卫生部门的表现和效率,特别将科索沃与西巴尔干国家进行了比较。教育和卫生部门的指标被用来评估公共部门绩效指数和公共部门效率指数。此外,本研究采用非参数方法DEA(数据包络分析)来评估投入产出导向效率。本研究发现,教育绩效得分从最低的0.43分到最高的1.48分。在卫生部门,PSP得分从最低的0.81到最高的1.09不等。就教育部门而言,科索沃在该样本的42个国家中排名第41位,绩效指数为0.67,比1.00的平均水平低37%,而就卫生部门而言,科索沃在42个样本国家中排名第39位。在对教育部门投入产出效率模型的分析中,结果表明,研究所包括的国家实现了76.69的效率,这意味着各国可以减少23.3%的相关公共支出,并保持教育部门同等水平的PSP。在这项分析中,科索沃被认为是一个效率低下的国家。投入导向指数的值为40.24,这意味着科索沃在教育部门可以通过减少60%的相对公共支出来实现相同的绩效水平,而另一方面,卫生部门的投入产出效率结果显示,各国的效率得分为47.64,这表明样本国家可以减少53%的卫生支出来实现相同的卫生部门绩效。因此,与样本中的其他国家相比,科索沃处于生产机会的限制范围之内,在卫生和教育方面的公共支出使用效率较低。
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引用次数: 1
The Initial Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic on Older Workers in Lithuania 新冠肺炎疫情对立陶宛老年工人的初步影响
Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.4
Kristina Zitikytė
 The Covid-19 pandemic that began in 2020 presented a new challenge for the labor market participants. This paper discusses the Covid-19 pandemic, highlighting the key challenges that older people can face trying to stay in the labor market for longer in the future, especially if such pandemics continue. Binary response models are used to identify the push-and-pull factors determining the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the employment of people aged 55–64 during the pandemic in Lithuania. As the Covid-19 pandemic still continues, most of researchers prefer statistical analysis, comparing employment rates with those of the 2009 economic crisis, to determine the potential impact of the pandemic on employment or by only theoretically discussing the potential impact of the pandemic on the elderly. This paper models the impact of the pandemic on the employment of older people in Lithuania using unique administrative micro-data of State social insurance fund (SSIF). This allows to draw deeper conclusions about how the pandemic affects workers aged 55–64 in Lithuania. The results show that the employment of older people has not been disproportionately impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, and if such pandemics occur in the future, they may present both limitations and opportunities from the point of view of older people.
始于2020年的新冠肺炎疫情给劳动力市场参与者带来了新的挑战。本文讨论了新冠肺炎大流行,强调了老年人在未来更长时间留在劳动力市场可能面临的关键挑战,特别是如果这种大流行持续下去的话。二元反应模型用于确定决定新冠肺炎大流行对立陶宛55-64岁人群在大流行期间就业的影响的推拉因素。由于新冠肺炎大流行仍在继续,大多数研究人员倾向于进行统计分析,将就业率与2009年经济危机的就业率进行比较,以确定大流行对就业的潜在影响,或仅从理论上讨论大流行对老年人的潜在影响。本文利用国家社会保险基金的独特行政微观数据,模拟了疫情对立陶宛老年人就业的影响。这使我们能够就疫情如何影响立陶宛55-64岁的工人得出更深入的结论。研究结果表明,老年人的就业没有受到新冠肺炎大流行的不成比例的影响,如果这种大流行在未来发生,从老年人的角度来看,可能会带来限制和机会。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of the Symmetrical and Asymmetrical Causality Relationship Between Bitcoin Energy Consumption and Stock Values of Technology Companies 科技公司比特币能耗与股价的对称与不对称因果关系评价
Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2022.101.2.2
Nazlıgül Gülcan, Fatma Gül Altin, Samet Gürsoy
Energy production is a phenomenon that has always preserved its importance for the history of humanity, as well as where the energy is spent and its consumption are also important. This study examined the causality relationship between Bitcoin energy consumption and Apple, Dell Technologies, Lenova Group, HP, Quanta Computer, Compal Electronics, Canon, Wistron and Hewlett Packard Enterprise has been taken into account to represent technology companies’ stock market. In the analysis, daily price data for the period 12.02.2017-07.02.2021 were used. Toda-Yamamoto (1995) symmetric causality test and Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test were used for used to determine the relationship between Bitcoin energy consumption and technology companies’ stock values. According to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality test, it has been found that there is a causality from Bitcoin energy consumption to Apple's stock value; according to the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test results, it has been determined that there is a causality from Bitcoin energy consumption positive shocks to Apple, Dell Technologies, Lenova Group, HP, Quanta Computer, Compal Electronics, Canon, Wistron and Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock values negative shocks and from Bitcoin energy expenditure negative shocks to Hewlett Packard Enterprise negative shocks. According to the results of the study in general, it is seen that the change in Bitcoin energy consumption has an effect on the firm returns of the companies that sell the necessary tools for bitcoin energy production. From this, it can be commented that bitcoin mining is also effective on the stock returns of technology companies as well as many financial factors.
能源生产是一种在人类历史上始终保持其重要性的现象,能源的使用和消耗也很重要。本研究考察了比特币能源消耗与苹果、戴尔科技、联想集团、惠普、广达电脑、仁宝电子、佳能、纬创和惠普之间的因果关系。在分析中,使用了2021年2月12日至7月2日期间的每日价格数据。Toda Yamamoto(1995)对称因果关系检验和Hatemi-J(2012)不对称因果关系检验用于确定比特币能源消耗与科技公司股票价值之间的关系。根据Toda Yamamoto(1995)因果关系检验的结果,发现比特币能源消耗与苹果股票价值之间存在因果关系;根据Hatemi-J(2012)非对称因果关系检验结果,已确定比特币能源消费正向冲击对苹果、戴尔科技、Lenova集团、惠普、广达电脑、仁宝电子、佳能、,纬创资通和惠普企业的股票价值负冲击,从比特币能源支出负冲击到惠普企业的负冲击。根据总体研究结果,可以看出,比特币能源消耗的变化对出售比特币能源生产所需工具的公司的公司回报产生了影响。由此可见,比特币挖矿对科技公司的股票收益以及许多财务因素也有影响。
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