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Estimates Of Russia’s Potential Output 对俄罗斯潜在产量的估计
Pub Date : 2021-10-08 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2021.100.2.4
Martin Janíčko, P. Maleček, Pavel Janíčko
Taking into consideration the specifics of the Russian economy such as dependency on oil and gas drilling & production, and including the current context of the Western sanctions, COVID-19 pandemic, as well as somewhat idiosyncratic potential output development, the main aim of this paper is to quantify recent output gap for Russia. We use three mainstream methodologies: the Hodrick-Prescott filter as a benchmark, the Kalman filter to follow, and the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample time span ranges from 1995Q1 until 2020Q3, while all calculations are performed on quarterly frequencies. The analysis suggests that given low fixed investment ratios, limited R&D spending in non-military sectors, and adverse demographic development, under a “no policy change” scenario there might soon be even more downward pressures on the country’s potential output growth, and the economy may continue increasing only at a snail’s pace even after a possible withdrawal of the Western sanctions and the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
考虑到俄罗斯经济的具体情况,如对石油和天然气钻探和生产的依赖,包括西方制裁的当前背景,COVID-19大流行,以及一些特殊的潜在产出发展,本文的主要目的是量化俄罗斯最近的产出缺口。我们使用三种主流方法:Hodrick-Prescott滤波器作为基准,Kalman滤波器,以及cobbb - douglas生产函数。样本时间跨度从1995Q1到2020Q3,而所有的计算都是按季度频率进行的。分析认为,考虑到固定投资比例低、非军事领域研发支出有限、人口发展不利等因素,在“政策不变”的情况下,潜在产出增长可能很快会面临更大的下行压力,即使西方可能取消制裁、新冠肺炎疫情结束,经济增长也可能继续以蜗牛的速度增长。
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引用次数: 1
Evaluation of Stackelberg Leader-Follower Interaction Between Policymakers in Small Open Economies 小型开放经济体政策制定者之间Stackelberg主从互动的评价
Pub Date : 2021-10-08 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2021.100.2.5
Metin Teti̇k, R. Ceylan
The problem of coordination between policymakers seems to have created fundamental problems related to economic and social costs, targeted inflation, potential growth, and a high budget deficit. To resolve these problems in this framework, it is important to see the results of the interaction between policymakers and to propose an optimal policy strategy. In this study, the interactions between monetary and fiscal policymakers are examined game theoretically within the framework of the New Keynesian model. The strategic interaction between these policymakers is assessed using the DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model for a small open economy. From this point of view, the interaction between policymakers is assessed within the framework of hypothetical scenarios. The optimal monetary and fiscal policies for a small open economy are derived from the leader-follower mechanism solution known as the Stackelberg solution. Optimal Stackelberg policy rules derived for a small open economy contribute to the literature of economics. The performance of the game theoretically derived optimal policy rules is evaluated through dynamic simulation within the framework of counterfactual experiments. The parameters developed for the model are calibrated for the Turkish economy. Dynamic simulation of the models, the impulse response functions, and the social loss analysis shows that the optimal policy mix for the Turkish economy is when the monetary policymaker is the leader, and the fiscal policymaker is the follower.
政策制定者之间的协调问题似乎造成了与经济和社会成本、目标通胀、潜在增长和高预算赤字有关的根本问题。为了在这个框架内解决这些问题,重要的是要看到决策者之间互动的结果,并提出最佳的政策战略。在本研究中,货币政策制定者和财政政策制定者之间的互动在新凯恩斯主义模型的框架内进行了博弈论研究。使用小型开放经济的DSGE(动态随机一般均衡)模型来评估这些政策制定者之间的战略互动。从这个角度来看,政策制定者之间的互动是在假设情景的框架内进行评估的。小型开放经济体的最优货币和财政政策来源于被称为Stackelberg解的领导者-追随者机制解。为小型开放经济体导出的最优Stackelberg政策规则对经济学文献有贡献。在反事实实验的框架内,通过动态仿真评估了博弈理论推导的最优策略规则的性能。为该模型开发的参数针对土耳其经济进行了校准。模型的动态模拟、脉冲响应函数和社会损失分析表明,土耳其经济的最佳政策组合是货币政策制定者是领导者,财政政策制定者为追随者。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Innovation and Technology after COVID-19: a few Directions for Policy Makers and Regulators in the View of Old and New Disruptors 新冠肺炎后的金融创新与科技:新老颠覆者视角下政策制定者和监管者的几个方向
Pub Date : 2021-10-08 DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2021.100.2.2
M. Pompella, L. Costantino
Innovation and technology have led to the redefinition of business models and development of new ones in many bricks and mortar sectors.  Similarly, blockchain and fintech have impacted the finance and banking industries and are expected to further affect them in the future, leading some media to coin the expression “Uberization of banking”.  The authors extrapolate from sharing economy models to conclude that while blockchain and fintech are poised to advance finance and banking, there are no disruptive features that corroborate the term.  By analogy and successive approximations, this article identifies the limitations of the arguments for disruption in finance and banking.  Besides, hinging upon stylized facts, the article establishes similarities with sharing economy models to identify potential threats stemming from financial innovations such as Tokenomics, tagged as “no-ABSs”.  Eventually, the authors identify entry points and ways forward arising from the COVID-19 pandemic for policy makers and regulators to regain their pivotal role in policing the market and ensuring transparency while driving innovation.
创新和技术导致了许多实体行业对商业模式的重新定义和新模式的发展。同样,区块链和金融科技也影响了金融和银行业,预计未来还会进一步影响它们,导致一些媒体制造了“银行业的Uberization”的说法。作者从共享经济模型推断得出结论,尽管区块链和金融科技有望推动金融和银行业发展,但没有颠覆性特征可以证实这一说法。通过类比和逐次逼近,本文确定了金融和银行业中断论点的局限性。此外,基于程式化的事实,本文建立了与共享经济模型的相似性,以识别金融创新(如标记为“无ABS”的代币经济学)带来的潜在威胁。最终,作者确定了新冠肺炎大流行带来的切入点和前进道路,让政策制定者和监管机构重新发挥其在监管市场和确保透明度方面的关键作用,同时推动创新。
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引用次数: 3
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Empirical Research Results of its Quantitative Measurement in Georgia 格鲁吉亚宏观经济不确定性及其定量测度的实证研究结果
Pub Date : 2021-03-25 DOI: 10.15388/EKON.2021.1.4
David Kbiladze, S. Metreveli, Tamar Kbiladze
The present article describes the approaches and definition of the concept of uncertainty proposed by its authors, a quantitative evaluation of uncertainty, and materials of the empirical study used to explore the said issues on the example of macroeconomics of Georgia. We hope that the views given in the article will be useful for developing countries, particularly for the economic policy-makers in the post-communist states, as well as for the academic and scientific circles engaged in the studies of the above-listed issues.
本文描述了作者提出的不确定性概念的方法和定义,不确定性的定量评估,以及以格鲁吉亚宏观经济学为例探讨上述问题的实证研究材料。我们希望本文的观点能对发展中国家,特别是后共产主义国家的经济决策者,以及从事上述问题研究的学术界和科学界有所帮助。
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引用次数: 1
FDI inflows in selected Emerging European economies with reflections on economic growth 部分欧洲新兴经济体的FDI流入及其对经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2104011e
D. Ercegovac, Emilija Beker-Pucar
The objective of this paper is to identify the top destination for FDI inflows as well as to analyze related growth progress in selected Emerging European Economies (EEEs) in order to suggest significant implications towards economic policy creators in Western Balkan countries. The authors conducted descriptive statistical analysis together with correlation analysis in the time period 1997-2019. The analysis of average FDI inflows includes following country groups: Visegrad States, Baltic States, Western Balkan and eleven new EU member states with regard to the structural break of Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The results suggest that the Visegrad States (particularly Poland) were the top locations for foreign investors in the analyzed time period. Having in mind a positive correlation link between significant FDI inflows, especially greenfield FDI inflows and economic growth, we suggest that Western Balkan countries should implement adequate measures to attract greater greenfield FDI inflows in order to stimulate real convergence towards developed European economies. Therefore, recommendations are directed towards economic policy of less developed countries of Western Balkan that need to continue to improve the quality of public institutions and infrastructure, as well as business environment and implementation of nonfinancial measures of promotional activities, in order to raise attractiveness of national market for foreign investors.
本文的目的是确定外国直接投资流入的主要目的地,并分析选定的欧洲新兴经济体(EEEs)的相关增长进展,以便提出对西巴尔干国家经济政策制定者的重大影响。作者对1997-2019年进行了描述性统计分析和相关性分析。对平均外国直接投资流入的分析包括以下国家组:维谢格拉德国家、波罗的海国家、西巴尔干国家和11个欧盟新成员国关于全球金融危机(GFC)的结构性突破。结果表明,在分析的时间段内,维谢格拉德国家(特别是波兰)是外国投资者的首选地点。考虑到大量外国直接投资流入,特别是绿地外国直接投资流入与经济增长之间的正相关关系,我们建议西巴尔干国家应采取适当措施,吸引更多的绿地外国直接投资流入,以刺激向欧洲发达经济体的真正趋同。因此,建议是针对西巴尔干欠发达国家的经济政策,这些国家需要继续改善公共机构和基础设施的质量以及商业环境和执行促进活动的非财政措施,以便提高国家市场对外国投资者的吸引力。
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引用次数: 4
Corporate bonds as a way of financing companies in the Republic of Serbia 公司债券是塞尔维亚共和国公司融资的一种方式
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2104091r
Ljiljana Rajnović, J. Subić
The security of sources of financing is of undoubted importance for the continuous and sustainable operation of economic entities, which is a long-term interest of persons interested in the operation of economic entities. In the structure of possible sources of financing of economic entities, corporate bonds are of great importance everywhere in the world, and their application in the Republic of Serbia could bring a great contribution to the domestic economy. Corporate bonds are debt obligations issued by corporation to debt refinancing, improvements, expansions or acquisitions. The bondholders are the issuer's creditors and for the money invested in the company, they expect earnings. The main goal of this paper is to consider the conditions and importance of issuing corporate bonds by medium and large companies in Serbia and the advantage over other sources of financing. Based on the obtained research results, it can be concluded that the issuance of bonds is a good alternative to other sources of financing the company's operations, but the corporate bond market in Serbia is in the development phase. Bond issuers with listing on the regulated market of the Belgrade Stock Exchange include, in addition to the state, only certain commercial banks and international financial organizations.
融资来源的安全对于经济实体的持续和可持续运行无疑具有重要意义,这是与经济实体运行有关的人的长远利益。在经济实体可能的融资来源结构中,公司债券在世界各地都非常重要,在塞尔维亚共和国应用公司债券可以对国内经济作出巨大贡献。公司债券是公司为债务再融资、改进、扩张或收购而发行的债务。债券持有人是发行人的债权人,对于投资于公司的钱,他们期望获得收益。本文的主要目标是考虑塞尔维亚大中型公司发行公司债券的条件和重要性,以及相对于其他融资来源的优势。根据所获得的研究结果,可以得出结论,发行债券是公司运营融资的一个很好的替代来源,但塞尔维亚的公司债券市场处于发展阶段。在贝尔格莱德证券交易所受监管的市场上上市的债券发行人,除国家外,还包括某些商业银行和国际金融组织。
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引用次数: 0
Interplay between digital technologies and business performance in banking industry: Global and regional perspectives 数字技术与银行业业务绩效之间的相互作用:全球和区域视角
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2103075m
Ismail Musabegović, Mustafa Ozer, M. Lazić, S. Jovanovic
In order to remain competitive on both domestic and global market as well as to satisfy evolving consumers' needs, modern banks must not ignore the potential of digital and smart technologies. Taking into consideration the importance of digitalization as a new standard in business practice, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of digitalization on the performance of banking sector globally and in SEE region. The main purpose of this paper is to test if the investments in information and communication technologies (ICT) contribute to the growth of profitability of banking sector as well as to the reduction of OPEX. In order to test the influence of investments in ICT on banking performance adequately, the static panel data models of fixed effects models were used. The results indicate that the influence of investments in ICT on OPEX defers on global and regional level. The results also indicate statistically significant positive relationship between investments in ICT and banks' profitability in SEE region.
为了在国内和全球市场上保持竞争力,并满足不断变化的消费者需求,现代银行绝不能忽视数字和智能技术的潜力。考虑到数字化作为商业实践新标准的重要性,本文的目的是评估数字化对全球和SEE地区银行业绩效的影响。本文的主要目的是测试信息和通信技术(ICT)的投资是否有助于银行业盈利能力的增长以及运营成本的降低。为了充分检验信息通信技术投资对银行绩效的影响,本文采用了固定效应模型的静态面板数据模型。结果表明,信息通信技术投资对运营成本的影响在全球和区域层面上存在差异。结果还表明,在SEE地区,信息通信技术投资与银行盈利能力之间存在统计学上显著的正相关关系。
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引用次数: 1
ECB monetary policy during COVID-19 COVID-19期间欧洲央行的货币政策
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2102001p
D. Momirović, Z. Simonović, A. Kostić
This paper aims to point out the monetary policy measures that the European This paper aims to point out the monetary policy measures that the European Central Bank has taken since the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. In the Eurozone, at the start of the COVID-19 crisis, financial conditions deteriorated sharply, potentially threatening to worsen the economic outlook, deepen market fragmentation, jeopardize monetary policy transmission, encourage a downward inflationary trajectory, weaken prices and undermine public and private stability. Aware of the new situation of the ECB, it responded quickly and efficiently with coordinated and ambitious measures to alleviate the perceived financial and economic difficulties. To maintain a flexible monetary policy stance, the ECB adopted an interim non-standard measured COVID-19 Asset Purchase Program (PEPP) to mitigate and improve financial conditions and restart an earlier Asset Purchase Program (APP) aimed at inflation expectations. At the same time, other measures have been strengthened and expanded, such as Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs, TLTRO III, and PLTRO) aimed at providing liquidity ampleness to the real sector and collateral standards. The implementation of the adopted measures has influenced the stabilization of the economic and financial system of the EU and improved lending to corporate and household banks.
本文旨在指出欧洲央行自新冠疫情爆发以来采取的货币政策措施。在欧元区,2019冠状病毒病危机爆发之初,金融状况急剧恶化,有可能恶化经济前景,加深市场碎片化,危及货币政策传导,鼓励通胀下行轨迹,削弱价格,破坏公共和私营部门稳定。意识到欧洲央行的新形势后,它迅速有效地作出反应,采取了协调一致的雄心勃勃的措施,以减轻所感受到的金融和经济困难。为了保持灵活的货币政策立场,欧洲央行采取了临时非标准的COVID-19衡量资产购买计划(pep),以缓解和改善金融状况,并重启早先针对通胀预期的资产购买计划(APP)。与此同时,其他措施得到了加强和扩大,如定向长期再融资操作(LTROs, TLTRO III和PLTRO),旨在为实体部门提供充足的流动性和抵押品标准。所采取措施的实施影响了欧盟经济和金融体系的稳定,并改善了对企业和家庭银行的贷款。
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引用次数: 1
Corporate culture: Business performance factor of national organizations 企业文化:国家组织的经营绩效因素
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2104029m
Vuk Miletić, N. Ćurčić, Z. Simonović
The subject of this paper is to investigate the attitudes of owners and top managers of national organizations from different business sectors on how to increase the chances of the organization becoming competitive by raising the level at which the idea of corporate culture is realized. The paper starts from the assumption that the corporate culture depends on the context in which the organization operates and as such significantly affects performance. Each organization forms its own image in its organizational environment based on the strategy of quality of products and services it provides, the principles of behavior, and the moral principles of employees. Since it affects business performance and attitudes towards work, the corporate culture must be designed to be adapted to each work group. The results of the research show that depending on the decision makers in the organization and the management style, there are significant differences in the organizations in terms of the level at which the idea of corporate culture in the organization is realized. Hypothetical-deductive methods, analytical-deductive and comparative methods, explanatory methods, historical, and statistical-descriptive methods were used in the research.
本文的主题是调查来自不同业务部门的国家组织的所有者和高层管理人员对如何通过提高企业文化理念实现的水平来增加组织具有竞争力的机会的态度。本文首先假设企业文化取决于组织运作的背景,因此显著影响绩效。每个组织在其组织环境中形成自己的形象,其基础是其提供的产品和服务质量战略、行为原则和员工的道德原则。由于企业文化会影响企业绩效和对工作的态度,因此企业文化的设计必须适应每个工作组。研究结果表明,根据组织决策者和管理方式的不同,组织在实现企业文化理念的水平上存在显著差异。研究中使用了假设-演绎方法、分析-演绎和比较方法、解释方法、历史方法和统计-描述方法。
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引用次数: 2
The decline of defined benefit pension plans in developed countries 发达国家固定收益养老金计划的减少
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/ekonomika2103019l
Stevan Luković, Marko Savićević
Defined benefit pension plans have played an important role in pension sectors of developed countries in North America, Great Britain and Western Europe for several decades. However, with the beginning of the 21st century, altered demographic trends and global financial market fluctuations have significantly disrupted the financial position of defined benefit pension plans. The aim of this paper is to examine the long-term movement of indicators of the importance of defined benefit pension plans in the pension systems of four developed countries: the United States, Canada, the Netherlands and Great Britain. In these countries defined benefit pension plans still have an important role. The analysis shows that the number of occupational defined benefit pension plans in private sector in the observed countries is declining, along with the continuously decreasing number of participants and increasing problems in achieving a sustainable financial position in the long run.
几十年来,固定收益养老金计划在北美、英国和西欧等发达国家的养老金部门发挥了重要作用。然而,随着21世纪的开始,人口趋势的变化和全球金融市场的波动大大扰乱了确定福利养恤金计划的财务状况。本文的目的是考察四个发达国家:美国、加拿大、荷兰和英国的养老金制度中固定收益养老金计划重要性指标的长期变动。在这些国家,固定收益养老金计划仍然发挥着重要作用。分析表明,所观察到的国家私营部门职业固定收益养恤金计划的数量正在减少,同时参加人数不断减少,从长远来看,在实现可持续财务状况方面的问题也越来越多。
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引用次数: 0
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Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas
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