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Heavy-Traffic Analysis of Sojourn Time Under the Foreground–Background Scheduling Policy 前台-后台调度策略下Sojourn时间的重流量分析
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-12-11 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2019.0036
B. Kamphorst, B. Zwart
We consider the steady-state distribution of the sojourn time of a job entering an M/GI/1 queue with the foreground-background scheduling policy in heavy traffic. The growth rate of its mean, as well as the limiting distribution, are derived under broad conditions. Assumptions commonly used in extreme value theory play a key role in both the analysis and the results.
我们考虑了在交通繁忙的情况下,具有前台-后台调度策略的进入M/GI/1队列的作业的停留时间的稳态分布。其平均值的增长率以及极限分布都是在广泛的条件下得出的。极值理论中常用的假设在分析和结果中都起着关键作用。
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引用次数: 5
A Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Sensitivities of Reflected Diffusions in Convex Polyhedral Domains 凸多面体区域反射扩散灵敏度估计的蒙特卡罗方法
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-11-30 DOI: 10.1287/STSY.2019.0031
David Lipshutz, K. Ramanan
In this work we develop an effective Monte Carlo method for estimating sensitivities, or gradients of expectations of sufficiently smooth functionals, of a reflected diffusion in a convex polyhedral domain with respect to its defining parameters --- namely, its initial condition, drift and diffusion coefficients, and directions of reflection. Our method, which falls into the class of infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA) methods, uses a probabilistic representation for such sensitivities as the expectation of a functional of the reflected diffusion and its associated derivative process. The latter process is the unique solution to a constrained linear stochastic differential equation with jumps whose coefficients, domain and directions of reflection are modulated by the reflected diffusion. We propose an asymptotically unbiased estimator for such sensitivities using an Euler approximation of the reflected diffusion and its associated derivative process. Proving that the Euler approximation converges is challenging because the derivative process jumps whenever the reflected diffusion hits the boundary (of the domain). A key step in the proof is establishing a continuity property of the related derivative map, which is of independent interest. We compare the performance of our IPA estimator to a standard likelihood ratio estimator (whenever the latter is applicable), and provide numerical evidence that the variance of the former is substantially smaller than that of the latter. We illustrate our method with an example of a rank-based interacting diffusion model of equity markets. Interestingly, we show that estimating certain sensitivities of the rank-based interacting diffusion model using our method for a reflected Brownian motion description of the model outperforms a finite difference method for a stochastic differential equation description of the model.
在这项工作中,我们开发了一种有效的蒙特卡罗方法,用于估计凸多面体域中反射扩散的灵敏度或充分光滑泛函的期望梯度,其定义参数-即其初始条件,漂移和扩散系数以及反射方向。我们的方法属于无穷小摄动分析(IPA)方法的范畴,它使用概率表示来表示灵敏度,如反射扩散及其相关导数过程的泛函的期望。后一过程是具有跳跃的约束线性随机微分方程的唯一解,该方程的系数、反射域和反射方向由反射扩散调制。我们利用反射扩散及其相关导数过程的欧拉近似,提出了这种灵敏度的渐近无偏估计。证明欧拉近似收敛是具有挑战性的,因为每当反射扩散到达边界时,导数过程就会跳跃。证明的一个关键步骤是建立相关导数映射的连续性,这是一个独立的兴趣。我们将IPA估计器的性能与标准似然比估计器进行了比较(只要后者适用),并提供了数值证据,证明前者的方差实质上小于后者。我们用一个基于等级的股票市场相互作用扩散模型的例子来说明我们的方法。有趣的是,我们表明,使用我们的方法来估计基于秩的相互作用扩散模型的某些灵敏度,以反映模型的布朗运动描述,优于用于模型的随机微分方程描述的有限差分方法。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of a Network Split on Cascading Failure Processes 网络分裂对级联故障过程的影响
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-11-13 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2019.0035
F. Sloothaak, S. Borst, B. Zwart
Cascading failure models are typically used to capture the phenomenon where failures possibly trigger further failures in succession, causing knock-on effects. In many networks this ultimately leads to a disintegrated network where the failure propagation continues independently across the various components. In order to gain insight in the impact of network splitting on cascading failure processes, we extend a well-established cascading failure model for which the number of failures obeys a power-law distribution. We assume that a single line failure immediately splits the network in two components, and examine its effect on the power-law exponent. The results provide valuable qualitative insights that are crucial first steps towards understanding more complex network splitting scenarios.
级联故障模型通常用于捕捉故障可能连续引发进一步故障,从而导致连锁效应的现象。在许多网络中,这最终导致瓦解的网络,在该网络中,故障在各个组件之间独立地继续传播。为了深入了解网络分裂对级联故障过程的影响,我们扩展了一个完善的级联故障模型,该模型的故障数量服从幂律分布。我们假设单线故障会立即将网络一分为二,并考察其对幂律指数的影响。这些结果提供了有价值的定性见解,是理解更复杂的网络分裂场景的关键第一步。
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引用次数: 1
Stochastic Gradient Descent in Continuous Time: A Central Limit Theorem 连续时间随机梯度下降:一个中心极限定理
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-10-11 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2019.0050
Justin A. Sirignano, K. Spiliopoulos
Stochastic gradient descent in continuous time (SGDCT) provides a computationally efficient method for the statistical learning of continuous-time models, which are widely used in science, engineering, and finance. The SGDCT algorithm follows a (noisy) descent direction along a continuous stream of data. The parameter updates occur in continuous time and satisfy a stochastic differential equation. This paper analyzes the asymptotic convergence rate of the SGDCT algorithm by proving a central limit theorem for strongly convex objective functions and, under slightly stronger conditions, for nonconvex objective functions as well. An [Formula: see text] convergence rate is also proven for the algorithm in the strongly convex case. The mathematical analysis lies at the intersection of stochastic analysis and statistical learning.
连续时间随机梯度下降(SGDCT)为连续时间模型的统计学习提供了一种计算效率高的方法,广泛应用于科学、工程和金融等领域。SGDCT算法沿着连续数据流的(有噪声的)下降方向。参数更新发生在连续时间内,并满足随机微分方程。本文通过证明一个中心极限定理,分析了SGDCT算法对强凸目标函数的渐近收敛速度,并在稍强的条件下证明了非凸目标函数的渐近收敛速度。本文还证明了该算法在强凸情况下的收敛率。数学分析是随机分析和统计学习的交集。
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引用次数: 27
Asymptotic Analysis of a Multiclass Queueing Control Problem Under Heavy Traffic with Model Uncertainty 具有模型不确定性的大流量下多类排队控制问题的渐近分析
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-10-03 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2019.0034
A. Cohen
We study a multiclass M/M/1 queueing control problem with finite buffers under heavy-traffic where the decision maker is uncertain about the rates of arrivals and service of the system and by scheduling and admission/rejection decisions acts to minimize a discounted cost that accounts for the uncertainty. The main result is the asymptotic optimality of a $cmu$-type of policy derived via underlying stochastic differential games studied in [16]. Under this policy, with high probability, rejections are not performed when the workload lies below some cut-off that depends on the ambiguity level. When the workload exceeds this cut-off, rejections are carried out and only from the buffer with the cheapest rejection cost weighted with the mean service rate in some reference model. The allocation part of the policy is the same for all the ambiguity levels. This is the first work to address a heavy-traffic queueing control problem with model uncertainty.
我们研究了在大流量下具有有限缓冲区的多类M/M/1排队控制问题,其中决策者对系统的到达率和服务不确定,并且通过调度和允许/拒绝决策来最小化考虑不确定性的折扣成本。主要结果是通过[16]中研究的潜在随机微分对策导出的$cmu$型策略的渐近最优性。在这种策略下,当工作负载低于某个截止值(取决于模糊程度)时,很有可能不会执行拒绝。当工作负载超过这个截止值时,只从缓冲区进行拒绝,在一些参考模型中,拒绝成本以平均服务率加权,最便宜。对于所有模糊级别,策略的分配部分都是相同的。这是解决具有模型不确定性的重交通排队控制问题的第一项工作。
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引用次数: 8
Queues Driven by Hawkes Processes 由Hawkes进程驱动的队列
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3003376
A. Daw, Jamol Pender
Many stochastic systems have arrival processes that exhibit clustering behavior. In these systems, arriving entities influence additional arrivals to occur through self-excitation of the arrival process. In this paper, we analyze an infinite server queueing system in which the arrivals are driven by the self-exciting Hawkes process and where service follows a phase-type distribution or is deterministic. In the phase-type setting, we derive differential equations for the moments and a partial differential equation for the moment generating function; we also derive exact expressions for the transient and steady-state mean, variance, and covariances. Furthermore, we also derive exact expressions for the auto-covariance of the queue and provide an expression for the cumulant moment generating function in terms of a single ordinary differential equation. In the deterministic service setting, we provide exact expressions for the first and second moments and the queue auto-covariance. As motivation for our Hawkes queueing model, we demonstrate its usefulness through two novel applications. These applications are trending internet traffic and arrivals to nightclubs. In the web traffic setting, we investigate the impact of a click. In the nightclub or "Club Queue" setting, we design an optimal control problem for the rate to admit club-goers.
许多随机系统具有呈现聚类行为的到达过程。在这些系统中,到达实体通过到达过程的自激作用来影响额外的到达。在本文中,我们分析了一个无限服务器排队系统,其中到达由自激Hawkes过程驱动,并且服务遵循相位型分布或是确定性的。在相位类型设置中,我们导出矩的微分方程和矩母函数的偏微分方程;我们还导出了瞬态和稳态平均值、方差和协变量的精确表达式。此外,我们还导出了队列自协方差的精确表达式,并根据单个常微分方程提供了累积矩母函数的表达式。在确定性服务设置中,我们提供了第一和第二时刻以及队列自协方差的精确表达式。作为Hawkes排队模型的动机,我们通过两个新的应用程序证明了它的有用性。这些应用程序正在对互联网流量和夜总会客流量进行趋势分析。在网络流量设置中,我们调查点击的影响。在夜店或“俱乐部队列”设置中,我们设计了一个俱乐部入场率的最优控制问题。
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引用次数: 69
Likelihood Ratio Gradient Estimation for Steady-State Parameters 稳态参数的似然比梯度估计
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-07-09 DOI: 10.1287/STSY.2018.0023
P. Glynn, Mariana Olvera-Cravioto
We consider a discrete-time Markov chain $boldsymbol{Phi}$ on a general state-space ${sf X}$, whose transition probabilities are parameterized by a real-valued vector $boldsymbol{theta}$. Under the assumption that $boldsymbol{Phi}$ is geometrically ergodic with corresponding stationary distribution $pi(boldsymbol{theta})$, we are interested in estimating the gradient $nabla alpha(boldsymbol{theta})$ of the steady-state expectation $$alpha(boldsymbol{theta}) = pi( boldsymbol{theta}) f.$$ To this end, we first give sufficient conditions for the differentiability of $alpha(boldsymbol{theta})$ and for the calculation of its gradient via a sequence of finite horizon expectations. We then propose two different likelihood ratio estimators and analyze their limiting behavior.
我们考虑一般状态空间${sf X}$上的离散时间马尔可夫链$boldsymbol{Phi}$,其转移概率由实值向量$boldsymbol{theta}$参数化。在$boldsymbol{Phi}$与相应的平稳分布$pi(boldsymbol{theta},我们首先给出了$alpha(boldsymbol{theta})$的可微性以及通过有限的视界期望序列计算其梯度的充分条件。然后,我们提出了两种不同的似然比估计,并分析了它们的极限行为。
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引用次数: 8
Big Jobs Arrive Early: From Critical Queues to Random Graphs 大任务提前到来:从关键队列到随机图
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2017-04-11 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2019.0057
G. Bet, R. van der Hofstad, J. V. van Leeuwaarden
We consider a queue to which only a finite pool of n customers can arrive, at times depending on their service requirement. A customer with stochastic service requirement S arrives to the queue after an exponentially distributed time with mean S-αfor some [Formula: see text]; therefore, larger service requirements trigger customers to join earlier. This finite-pool queue interpolates between two previously studied cases: α = 0 gives the so-called [Formula: see text] queue and α = 1 is closely related to the exploration process for inhomogeneous random graphs. We consider the asymptotic regime in which the pool size n grows to infinity and establish that the scaled queue-length process converges to a diffusion process with a negative quadratic drift. We leverage this asymptotic result to characterize the head start that is needed to create a long period of activity. We also describe how this first busy period of the queue gives rise to a critically connected random forest.
我们考虑一个只有有限的n个客户池才能到达的队列,有时取决于他们的服务需求。具有随机服务需求S的客户在指数分布时间后到达队列,其中一些客户的平均S-α[公式:见正文];因此,更大的服务需求促使客户更早地加入。这个有限池队列在两个先前研究的情况之间插值:α=0给出了所谓的[公式:见正文]队列,α=1与非齐次随机图的探索过程密切相关。我们考虑池大小n增长到无穷大的渐近状态,并建立了缩放队列长度过程收敛于具有负二次漂移的扩散过程。我们利用这一渐进结果来表征创造长期活动所需的领先优势。我们还描述了队列的第一个繁忙时段如何产生临界连接的随机林。
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引用次数: 6
Universality of Power-of-d Load Balancing in Many-Server Systems 多服务器系统中功率负载均衡的通用性
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2016-12-02 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2018.0016
Debankur Mukherjee, S. Borst, J. V. van Leeuwaarden, P. Whiting
We consider a system of $N$ parallel single-server queues with unit exponential service rates and a single dispatcher where tasks arrive as a Poisson process of rate $lambda(N)$. When a task arrives, the dispatcher assigns it to a server with the shortest queue among $d(N)$ randomly selected servers ($1 leq d(N) leq N$). This load balancing strategy is referred to as a JSQ($d(N)$) scheme, marking that it subsumes the celebrated Join-the-Shortest Queue (JSQ) policy as a crucial special case for $d(N) = N$. We construct a stochastic coupling to bound the difference in the queue length processes between the JSQ policy and a scheme with an arbitrary value of $d(N)$. We use the coupling to derive the fluid limit in the regime where $lambda(N) / N to lambda 0$ as $N to infty$ with $d(N)/(sqrt{N} log (N))toinfty$ corresponds to that for the JSQ policy. These results indicate that the optimality of the JSQ policy can be preserved at the fluid-level and diffusion-level while reducing the overhead by nearly a factor O($N$) and O($sqrt{N}/log(N)$), respectively.
我们考虑了一个$N$并行单服务器队列系统,该系统具有单位指数服务速率和单个调度器,其中任务到达速率为$lambda(N)$的泊松过程。当任务到达时,调度程序将其分配给$d(N)$随机选择的服务器($1 leq d(N) leq N$)中队列最短的服务器。这种负载平衡策略被称为JSQ($d(N)$)方案,这表明它将著名的最短队列加入(JSQ)策略作为$d(N) = N$的一个关键特例纳入其中。我们构造了一个随机耦合来约束JSQ策略和一个任意值为$d(N)$的方案之间的队列长度进程的差异。我们使用耦合来推导出$lambda(N) / N to lambda 0$为$N to infty$的状态下的流体极限,$d(N)/(sqrt{N} log (N))toinfty$对应于JSQ策略的流体极限。这些结果表明,JSQ策略可以在流体级和扩散级保持最优性,同时将开销分别减少近1倍($N$)和1倍($sqrt{N}/log(N)$)。
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引用次数: 78
Mean-Field Limits for Large-Scale Random-Access Networks 大规模随机接入网络的平均域限制
Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2016-11-29 DOI: 10.1287/stsy.2021.0068
Fabio Cecchi, S. Borst, J. V. van Leeuwaarden, P. Whiting
We establish mean-field limits for large-scale random-access networks with buffer dynamics and arbitrary interference graphs. Although saturated buffer scenarios have been widely investigated and yield useful throughput estimates for persistent sessions, they fail to capture the fluctuations in buffer contents over time and provide no insight in the delay performance of flows with intermittent packet arrivals. Motivated by that issue, we explore in the present paper random-access networks with buffer dynamics, where flows with empty buffers refrain from competition for the medium. The occurrence of empty buffers thus results in a complex dynamic interaction between activity states and buffer contents, which severely complicates the performance analysis. Hence, we focus on a many-sources regime where the total number of nodes grows large, which not only offers mathematical tractability but is also highly relevant with the densification of wireless networks as the Internet of Things emerges. We exploit timescale separation properties to prove that the properly scaled buffer occupancy process converges to the solution of a deterministic initial value problem and establish the existence and uniqueness of the associated fixed point. This approach simplifies the performance analysis of networks with huge numbers of nodes to a low-dimensional fixed-point calculation. For the case of a complete interference graph, we demonstrate asymptotic stability, provide a simple closed form expression for the fixed point, and prove interchange of the mean-field and steady-state limits. This yields asymptotically exact approximations for key performance metrics, in particular the stationary buffer content and packet delay distributions.
我们建立了具有缓冲动态和任意干涉图的大规模随机存取网络的平均场极限。尽管饱和缓冲场景已经被广泛研究,并对持久会话产生了有用的吞吐量估计,但它们无法捕捉缓冲区内容随时间的波动,也无法洞察间歇数据包到达流的延迟性能。受此问题的启发,我们在本文中探讨了具有缓冲区动态的随机访问网络,其中具有空缓冲区的流避免了对介质的竞争。因此,空缓冲区的出现会导致活动状态和缓冲区内容之间复杂的动态交互,从而严重复杂化性能分析。因此,我们将重点放在节点总数增长的多源机制上,这不仅提供了数学上的可追溯性,而且还与物联网出现时无线网络的致密化高度相关。利用时间尺度分离性质证明了适当尺度缓冲占用过程收敛于确定性初值问题的解,并建立了相关不动点的存在唯一性。该方法将具有大量节点的网络性能分析简化为低维不动点计算。对于完全干涉图,我们证明了其渐近稳定性,给出了不动点的一个简单的闭形式表达式,并证明了平均场极限与稳态极限的可交换性。这产生了关键性能指标的渐近精确近似值,特别是固定缓冲区内容和数据包延迟分布。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Stochastic Systems
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