Many important and interesting hypotheses about cultural evolution are evaluated using cross-cultural correlations: if knowing one particular feature of a culture (e.g. environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity or parasite load) allows you to predict other features (e.g. language features, religious beliefs, cuisine), it is often interpreted as indicating a causal link between the two (e.g. hotter climates carry greater disease risk, which encourages belief in supernatural forces and favours the use of antimicrobial ingredients in food preparation; dry climates make the production of distinct tones more difficult). However, testing such hypotheses from cross-cultural comparisons requires us to take proximity of cultures into account: nearby cultures share many aspects of their environment and are more likely to be similar in many culturally inherited traits. This can generate indirect associations between environment and culture which could be misinterpreted as signals of a direct causal link. Evaluating examples of cross-cultural correlations from the literature, we show that significant correlations interpreted as causal relationships can often be explained as a result of similarity between neighbouring cultures. We discuss some strategies for sorting the explanatory wheat from the co-varying chaff, distinguishing incidental correlations from causal relationships.
Humans have adapted to an immense array of environments by accumulating culturally transmitted knowledge and skills. Adaptive culture can accumulate either via more distinct cultural traits or via improvements of existing cultural traits. The kind of culture that accumulates depends on, and coevolves with, the social structure of societies. Here, we show that the coevolution of learning networks and cumulative culture results in two distinct pathways to cultural adaptation: highly connected populations with high proficiency but low trait diversity vs. sparsely connected populations with low proficiency but higher trait diversity. Importantly, we show there is a conflict between group-level payoffs, which are maximised in highly connected groups that attain high proficiency, and individual level selection, which favours disconnection. This conflict emerges from the interaction of social learning with population structure and causes populations to cycle between the two cultural and network states. The same conflict creates a paradox where increasing innovation rate lowers group payoffs. Finally, we explore how populations navigate these two pathways in environments where payoffs differ among traits and can change over time, showing that high proficiency is favoured when payoffs are stable and vary strongly between traits, while frequent changes in trait payoffs favour more trait diversity. Our results illustrate the complex interplay between networks, learning and the environment, and so inform our understanding of human social evolution.
Standard approaches to cultural evolution focus on the recipients or consumers. This does not take into account the fitness costs incurred in producing the behaviours or artefacts that become cultural, i.e. widespread in a social group. We argue that cultural evolution models should focus on these fitness costs and benefits of cultural production, particularly in the domain of 'symbolic' culture. In this approach, cultural products can be considered as a part of the extended phenotype of producers, which can affect the fitness of recipients in a positive way (through cooperation) but also in a detrimental way (through manipulation and exploitation). Taking the producers' perspective may help explain the specific features of many kinds of cultural products.
A tripartite structure for the genetic origin of Japanese populations states that present-day populations are descended from three main ancestors: (1) the indigenous Jomon hunter-gatherers; (2) a Northeast Asian component that arrived during the agrarian Yayoi period; and (3) a major influx of East Asian ancestry in the imperial Kofun period. However, the genetic heterogeneity observed in different regions of the Japanese archipelago highlights the need to assess the applicability and suitability of this model. Here, we analyse historic genomes from the southern Ryukyu Islands, which have unique cultural and historical backgrounds compared with other parts of Japan. Our analysis supports the tripartite structure as the best fit in this region, with significantly higher estimated proportions of Jomon ancestry than mainland Japanese. Unlike the main islands, where each continental ancestor was directly brought by immigrants from the continent, those who already possessed the tripartite ancestor migrated to the southern Ryukyu Islands and admixed with the prehistoric people around the eleventh century AD, coinciding with the emergence of the Gusuku period. These results reaffirm the tripartite model in the southernmost extremes of the Japanese archipelago and show variability in how the structure emerged in diverse geographic regions.
Causal inference from observational data is notoriously difficult, and relies upon many unverifiable assumptions, including no confounding or selection bias. Here, we demonstrate how to apply a range of sensitivity analyses to examine whether a causal interpretation from observational data may be justified. These methods include: testing different confounding structures (as the assumed confounding model may be incorrect), exploring potential residual confounding and assessing the impact of selection bias due to missing data. We aim to answer the causal question 'Does religiosity promote cooperative behaviour?' as a motivating example of how these methods can be applied. We use data from the parental generation of a large-scale (n = approximately 14,000) prospective UK birth cohort (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children), which has detailed information on religiosity and potential confounding variables, while cooperation was measured via self-reported history of blood donation. In this study, there was no association between religious belief or affiliation and blood donation. Religious attendance was positively associated with blood donation, but could plausibly be explained by unmeasured confounding. In this population, evidence that religiosity causes blood donation is suggestive, but rather weak. These analyses illustrate how sensitivity analyses can aid causal inference from observational research.