Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/jogs/2020.01.02
Stephen Reysen, Iva Katzarska-Miller, C. Plante, Truong Quang Lam, S. Kamble, Natalia Assis, Eduardo Gregolin Moretti
In the present research, we examined associations between perceived impact of globalization and global citizenship identification. We constructed a single-item measure of perceived impact of globalization (SIPIG) and tested its convergent and divergent validity (Study 1). The SIPIG showed adequate test-retest reliability in a sample of students (Study 2) and positively correlated with global citizenship identification in samples recruited both from within the U.S. (Studies 1, 3, 4) and outside the U.S. (Canada, Brazil, Vietnam, and India; Study 3). Lastly, SIPIG predicted antecedents of global citizenship identification in a broader model of global citizenship identification and its outcomes (Study 4). Together, the results suggest a positive association between perceived impact of globalization on the self and identifying with global citizens.
{"title":"Perceived Impact of Globalization and Global Citizenship Identification","authors":"Stephen Reysen, Iva Katzarska-Miller, C. Plante, Truong Quang Lam, S. Kamble, Natalia Assis, Eduardo Gregolin Moretti","doi":"10.30884/jogs/2020.01.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/jogs/2020.01.02","url":null,"abstract":"In the present research, we examined associations between perceived impact of globalization and global citizenship identification. We constructed a single-item measure of perceived impact of globalization (SIPIG) and tested its convergent and divergent validity (Study 1). The SIPIG showed adequate test-retest reliability in a sample of students (Study 2) and positively correlated with global citizenship identification in samples recruited both from within the U.S. (Studies 1, 3, 4) and outside the U.S. (Canada, Brazil, Vietnam, and India; Study 3). Lastly, SIPIG predicted antecedents of global citizenship identification in a broader model of global citizenship identification and its outcomes (Study 4). Together, the results suggest a positive association between perceived impact of globalization on the self and identifying with global citizens.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69738368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.10
S. Irshad
Covid-19 has created a global economic and public health crisis. The risk spread from China to the rest of the world through the institutions and practices of globalization. The global market economy has proved its institutional inabil-ity to share the risk of production crisis. Covid-19 formed a global ‘at-risk community’ beyond the national boundaries. This ‘at-risk community’ became a divisive force in determining the extent of economic crisis and the nation-state is more vulnerable to engage with the newly formed ‘at-risk community’.
{"title":"Covid-19 and Global ‘At-Risk Community’: From Benefit-Sharing to Risk-Sharing of Economic Crisis","authors":"S. Irshad","doi":"10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.10","url":null,"abstract":"Covid-19 has created a global economic and public health crisis. The risk spread from China to the rest of the world through the institutions and practices of globalization. The global market economy has proved its institutional inabil-ity to share the risk of production crisis. Covid-19 formed a global ‘at-risk community’ beyond the national boundaries. This ‘at-risk community’ became a divisive force in determining the extent of economic crisis and the nation-state is more vulnerable to engage with the newly formed ‘at-risk community’.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69739912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/jogs/2020.01.09
Antony Harper
{"title":"Fresh Look at the Global History. A Review of the Twenty-First Century Singularity and Global Futures: A Big History Perspective","authors":"Antony Harper","doi":"10.30884/jogs/2020.01.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/jogs/2020.01.09","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69738317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/jogs/2020.01.01
Joseph P. Garske
The paper will not directly engage the scientific question of global warming. Instead, it will discuss the present-day idea of global warming as successor to the nineteenth-century idea of the Malthusian Population Catastrophe. Viewed that way, the question becomes whether the human race, by cultivation and learning, has the capacity for ethical progress, or whether human nature is so inherently malevolent that, if left unregulated, it will inevitably bring destruction. A book by Nicolas de Condorcet, published in 1795, Progress of the Human Mind, was the single most influential summation of ideas from the Age of Reason and its Optimistic view of human capacity. In 1798 Thomas Malthus offered in rebuttal with a pessimistic appraisal of human possibility, in his Essay on Population. Malthus asserted that human history would eventually end – not in a world utopia – but in starvation and death. The only way to prevent such a fate was to impose a strict legal regime. This paper concludes: whatever the facts about global warming, there are fundamentally two types of solution: those enforced from the top down by coercive authority and those from the bottom up by public cultivation and learning. The Anglophone solution is to impose upon humankind an elevated global Rule of Law.
这篇论文不会直接涉及全球变暖的科学问题。相反，它将讨论当今全球变暖的观点，作为19世纪马尔萨斯人口灾难观点的继承者。从这个角度来看，问题就变成了，人类通过培养和学习，是否有能力在道德上取得进步，或者人类的本性是否如此恶毒，如果不加以控制，它将不可避免地带来毁灭。尼古拉斯·德·孔多塞(Nicolas de Condorcet)在1795年出版的一本书《人类思维的进步》(Progress of the Human Mind)是理性时代最具影响力的思想总结，它对人类能力持乐观态度。1798年，托马斯·马尔萨斯在他的《人口论》中对人类的可能性提出了悲观的评价。马尔萨斯断言，人类历史最终将终结于饥饿和死亡，而不是世界乌托邦。防止这种命运的唯一办法是实行严格的法律制度。本文的结论是:无论全球变暖的事实如何，基本上有两种解决方案:一种是由强制性权威自上而下实施的方案，另一种是由公众培养和学习自下而上实施的方案。以英语为母语的解决方案是将一种更高层次的全球法治强加于人类。
{"title":"Climate Change, Malthusian Catastrophe, and a Global Rule of Law","authors":"Joseph P. Garske","doi":"10.30884/jogs/2020.01.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/jogs/2020.01.01","url":null,"abstract":"The paper will not directly engage the scientific question of global warming. Instead, it will discuss the present-day idea of global warming as successor to the nineteenth-century idea of the Malthusian Population Catastrophe. Viewed that way, the question becomes whether the human race, by cultivation and learning, has the capacity for ethical progress, or whether human nature is so inherently malevolent that, if left unregulated, it will inevitably bring destruction. A book by Nicolas de Condorcet, published in 1795, Progress of the Human Mind, was the single most influential summation of ideas from the Age of Reason and its Optimistic view of human capacity. In 1798 Thomas Malthus offered in rebuttal with a pessimistic appraisal of human possibility, in his Essay on Population. Malthus asserted that human history would eventually end – not in a world utopia – but in starvation and death. The only way to prevent such a fate was to impose a strict legal regime. This paper concludes: whatever the facts about global warming, there are fundamentally two types of solution: those enforced from the top down by coercive authority and those from the bottom up by public cultivation and learning. The Anglophone solution is to impose upon humankind an elevated global Rule of Law.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69738348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.04
A. Vasiliev
For decades, the Wahhabis and the Muslim Brothers were allies both in ideology and in political practices. They were united by their attitude to Western culture as to corruption and debauchery, a negative perception of the Western system of values, and the desire to mold society based on the models of the Koran, Sunnah, and Sharia. Their common enemies were secular nationalist regimes and communism. The points of disagreement – the condemnation by the Brothers of the hereditary monarchies, then the direct call to overthrow the pro-Western rulers – were simply glossed over. For Saudi Arabia's Salafi Wahhabis, loyalty to the Saudi monarchy was an axiom. The peak of cooperation was achieved when both Brothers and Wahhabis participated in the jihad in Afghanistan against the Soviet troops and the pro-communist government. In joint camps, future extremist jihadists were brought up. The watershed was the war against Saddam Hussein's Iraqi troops, which occupied Kuwait. The deploy-ment of a huge American army, as well as its European allies, in the territory of Saudi Arabia, where two main Muslim shrines are located, was considered sac-rilege by the Muslim Brothers, as was the invitation of infidel troops to war against a Muslim state, albeit with a dictatorial secular regime. However, the leadership of the Saudi ulama issued a fatwa approving the actions of the rulers of the Kingdom. Over the years, the disagreements were voiced louder and louder, and the culmination was the rupture between the Wahhabis and the Brothers, which had substantial regional and global implications.
{"title":"The Wahhabis and the Muslim Brothers: From Alliance to Alienation. Regional and Global Implications","authors":"A. Vasiliev","doi":"10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.04","url":null,"abstract":"For decades, the Wahhabis and the Muslim Brothers were allies both in ideology and in political practices. They were united by their attitude to Western culture as to corruption and debauchery, a negative perception of the Western system of values, and the desire to mold society based on the models of the Koran, Sunnah, and Sharia. Their common enemies were secular nationalist regimes and communism. The points of disagreement – the condemnation by the Brothers of the hereditary monarchies, then the direct call to overthrow the pro-Western rulers – were simply glossed over. For Saudi Arabia's Salafi Wahhabis, loyalty to the Saudi monarchy was an axiom. The peak of cooperation was achieved when both Brothers and Wahhabis participated in the jihad in Afghanistan against the Soviet troops and the pro-communist government. In joint camps, future extremist jihadists were brought up. The watershed was the war against Saddam Hussein's Iraqi troops, which occupied Kuwait. The deploy-ment of a huge American army, as well as its European allies, in the territory of Saudi Arabia, where two main Muslim shrines are located, was considered sac-rilege by the Muslim Brothers, as was the invitation of infidel troops to war against a Muslim state, albeit with a dictatorial secular regime. However, the leadership of the Saudi ulama issued a fatwa approving the actions of the rulers of the Kingdom. Over the years, the disagreements were voiced louder and louder, and the culmination was the rupture between the Wahhabis and the Brothers, which had substantial regional and global implications.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69739014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.09
L.Ye. Grinin
The current COVID-19 pandemic may become one of the thresholds in the transformation of the world order as well as of many political, social and other relations within the World System. Together with the infection there has also started a recession which has been long anticipated. The two processes have created a synergetic effect with a very negative impact on economy and life. In the present paper the author makes predictions in what way the unfolding negative processes will affect economy in the short run and in the medium and long term, as well as how the balance of power in the world will shift and which great power will win and who will lose; and in what way will this affect the world order and many other aspects of life.
{"title":"How Can COVID-19 Change Geopolitics and Economy?","authors":"L.Ye. Grinin","doi":"10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.09","url":null,"abstract":"The current COVID-19 pandemic may become one of the thresholds in the transformation of the world order as well as of many political, social and other relations within the World System. Together with the infection there has also started a recession which has been long anticipated. The two processes have created a synergetic effect with a very negative impact on economy and life. In the present paper the author makes predictions in what way the unfolding negative processes will affect economy in the short run and in the medium and long term, as well as how the balance of power in the world will shift and which great power will win and who will lose; and in what way will this affect the world order and many other aspects of life.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69739802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/jogs/2020.01.04
Bourdin Bernard
Globalization is an economic phenomenon that gives the impression that the world has reached universality. But this is just a phenomenon. Languages remain irreducible ways of conceiving the universal. The words they use are therefore not functional means of expression but symbolic systems of representation of the world (historical time and space) expressed by always specific civilizations. Furthermore, civilizations are not homogeneous. Their history shows that they declined according to mostly evolving regimes of truth, as evidenced by European West. Consequently, languages and the impossible homogeneity of civilizations force us to think, in the age of contemporary globalization, of another concept of the universal which can no longer claim to be exclusive. Neither European West nor the Far East can monopolize the universal. Hence the need emerges to replace the concept of universal with that of uni-diversity. Unidiversity signifies that civilizations engaged in globalization are capable of a dialogue within themselves and with others. This dialogue is the way to speak of culture not as a fixed identity but as an evolutionary historical formation. This dialogue is also the condition for the formation of a common world with a view to an international community as a community of civilization.
{"title":"Is a ‘Common World’ in The Age of Globalization Possible? An Issue for the Dialogue between Civilizations","authors":"Bourdin Bernard","doi":"10.30884/jogs/2020.01.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/jogs/2020.01.04","url":null,"abstract":"Globalization is an economic phenomenon that gives the impression that the world has reached universality. But this is just a phenomenon. Languages remain irreducible ways of conceiving the universal. The words they use are therefore not functional means of expression but symbolic systems of representation of the world (historical time and space) expressed by always specific civilizations. Furthermore, civilizations are not homogeneous. Their history shows that they declined according to mostly evolving regimes of truth, as evidenced by European West. Consequently, languages and the impossible homogeneity of civilizations force us to think, in the age of contemporary globalization, of another concept of the universal which can no longer claim to be exclusive. Neither European West nor the Far East can monopolize the universal. Hence the need emerges to replace the concept of universal with that of uni-diversity. Unidiversity signifies that civilizations engaged in globalization are capable of a dialogue within themselves and with others. This dialogue is the way to speak of culture not as a fixed identity but as an evolutionary historical formation. This dialogue is also the condition for the formation of a common world with a view to an international community as a community of civilization.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69738565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.02
J. Zinkina, A. Andreev
Youth bulge is a globally important phenomenon itself generated by global processes like global demographic transition and global modernization in general. However, the youth bulge manifested itself at different times and scale in various regions and countries of the world. In the paper, the historical development and certain aspects of current age structure of ten Latin American countries are analyzed in terms of the youth bulge. Some method-ological approaches to this phenomenon are compared, and its risks for a country's sociopolitical stability are revealed. We then proceed to apply these various approaches to reveal possible youth bulges in the recent past, present state, and their demographic future as forecasted by UN Population Division. We go deep into the social and demographic history of some nine-teenth-century Latin American countries in order to reveal the roots of their differences from other countries. We also reveal two main ‘waves’ of Latin American countries passing through youth bulges and cases of political instability occurring at the time of these bulges. We also determine the country, which has quite recently experienced the bulge (due to a delayed fertility transition) and is still faces high risks of sociopolitical instability.
{"title":"The Demographic History and Current Age Structure in Latin America: The Youth Bulge and Implications for Sociopolitical Stability","authors":"J. Zinkina, A. Andreev","doi":"10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.02","url":null,"abstract":"Youth bulge is a globally important phenomenon itself generated by global processes like global demographic transition and global modernization in general. However, the youth bulge manifested itself at different times and scale in various regions and countries of the world. In the paper, the historical development and certain aspects of current age structure of ten Latin American countries are analyzed in terms of the youth bulge. Some method-ological approaches to this phenomenon are compared, and its risks for a country's sociopolitical stability are revealed. We then proceed to apply these various approaches to reveal possible youth bulges in the recent past, present state, and their demographic future as forecasted by UN Population Division. We go deep into the social and demographic history of some nine-teenth-century Latin American countries in order to reveal the roots of their differences from other countries. We also reveal two main ‘waves’ of Latin American countries passing through youth bulges and cases of political instability occurring at the time of these bulges. We also determine the country, which has quite recently experienced the bulge (due to a delayed fertility transition) and is still faces high risks of sociopolitical instability.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69738452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.06
A. Kazanin
The recent years have witnessed a global surge of interest in the Arctic region and its resources, from both Arctic and non-Arctic states. To a considerable extent, this surge should be attributed to the remarkable oil and gas deposits discovered in the Arctic region. In this paper we analyze the main strategic documents of the Arctic states (both oil- and gas-producers and non-producers) in terms of main objectives, principles, and spheres of action in the Arctic region. We specifically focus on the economic goals and priorities related to the development of oil and gas. policy objectives, we are committed to working with stakeholders, industry, and other Arctic states to explore the energy resource base, develop and im-plement best practices, and share experiences to enable the environmentally responsible production of oil and natural gas as well as renewable energy (The White House 2013: 7).
{"title":"Globalizing Petro-Arctic: What Do Producing and Non-Producing Arctic States Have to Say?","authors":"A. Kazanin","doi":"10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/JOGS/2020.02.06","url":null,"abstract":"The recent years have witnessed a global surge of interest in the Arctic region and its resources, from both Arctic and non-Arctic states. To a considerable extent, this surge should be attributed to the remarkable oil and gas deposits discovered in the Arctic region. In this paper we analyze the main strategic documents of the Arctic states (both oil- and gas-producers and non-producers) in terms of main objectives, principles, and spheres of action in the Arctic region. We specifically focus on the economic goals and priorities related to the development of oil and gas. policy objectives, we are committed to working with stakeholders, industry, and other Arctic states to explore the energy resource base, develop and im-plement best practices, and share experiences to enable the environmentally responsible production of oil and natural gas as well as renewable energy (The White House 2013: 7).","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69739203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.30884/jogs/2020.01.03
A. Korotaev, S. Bilyuga, A. Shishkina
It is shown that the Kondratieff wave dynamics in the growth rates of global GDP is generated now by the developing countries, while in the previous era the Kondratieff dynamics was generated primarily by the most economically developed countries of the First World. We re-visit the question of the presence of the Kondratieff waves in the world GDP dynamics. We find that, though in the post 1960 series they are quite visible at the global level, they are hardly visible in the GDP growth rates of the economically developed countries where the Kondratieff wave component (still detectable with special techniques) is almost entirely overwhelmed by the secular trend towards the decline of the GDP growth rates. After analyzing how much this trend is connected with the decline of the population growth rates and the decline of the share of investments in GDP, we move to the analysis of the Kondratieff waves in the GDP growth rates of the developing countries where they turn out to be much more pronounced and visible, which allows us to conclude that in the present the K-waves are generated by the Third World. We also show that in the developing countries a pronounced Kondratieff wave dynamics is accompanied by an overall upward trend (that stands in a sharp contrast with the pronounced downward trend observed in the developed economies). Finally, we analyze Kondratieff waves in the efficiency of investments as well as demographic characteristics of the developing countries, which allows us to forecast that the GDP growth rates in the developing countries are likely to also step on the downward secular trend starting with the sixth Kondratieff wave.
{"title":"Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?","authors":"A. Korotaev, S. Bilyuga, A. Shishkina","doi":"10.30884/jogs/2020.01.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30884/jogs/2020.01.03","url":null,"abstract":"It is shown that the Kondratieff wave dynamics in the growth rates of global GDP is generated now by the developing countries, while in the previous era the Kondratieff dynamics was generated primarily by the most economically developed countries of the First World. We re-visit the question of the presence of the Kondratieff waves in the world GDP dynamics. We find that, though in the post 1960 series they are quite visible at the global level, they are hardly visible in the GDP growth rates of the economically developed countries where the Kondratieff wave component (still detectable with special techniques) is almost entirely overwhelmed by the secular trend towards the decline of the GDP growth rates. After analyzing how much this trend is connected with the decline of the population growth rates and the decline of the share of investments in GDP, we move to the analysis of the Kondratieff waves in the GDP growth rates of the developing countries where they turn out to be much more pronounced and visible, which allows us to conclude that in the present the K-waves are generated by the Third World. We also show that in the developing countries a pronounced Kondratieff wave dynamics is accompanied by an overall upward trend (that stands in a sharp contrast with the pronounced downward trend observed in the developed economies). Finally, we analyze Kondratieff waves in the efficiency of investments as well as demographic characteristics of the developing countries, which allows us to forecast that the GDP growth rates in the developing countries are likely to also step on the downward secular trend starting with the sixth Kondratieff wave.","PeriodicalId":36579,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization Studies","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69738441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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