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Earthquake Risk Perception in Belgrade: Implications for Disaster Risk Management 贝尔格莱德地震风险感知:对灾害风险管理的启示
Pub Date : 2021-10-27 DOI: 10.20944/preprints202110.0397.v1
J. Planić, V. Cvetković
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents' preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.
本文介绍了人口因素对贝尔格莱德市民地震风险认知影响的定量研究结果。这项研究的目的是确定贝尔格莱德市民对地震风险的认识程度,以及在地震发生时准备作出反应的程度。研究了性别、年龄、受教育程度和设施所有权与风险感知之间的关系。采用t检验、单因素方差分析和Pearson相关系数检验各变量与地震风险感知的关系。该调查是通过一份问卷进行的,该问卷于2020年9月在贝尔格莱德的235名受访者中在线收集。这些问题被分为三类。问卷的第一部分包括关于受访者的人口特征的一般问题,然后是决定受访者对地震的认识水平的问题,最后是确定受访者准备的问题。研究结果表明,女性对风险的感知更高。事实证明,年龄在18-30岁之间的最年轻的受访者对风险的认知最低。在任何情况下,受教育程度的影响与风险感知均无统计学显著相关。
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic Rainfall Thresholds for Shallow Landslides Initiation – A Case Study from the Nilgiris District, Western Ghats, India 浅层滑坡启动的概率降雨阈值——以印度西高止山脉Nilgiris地区为例
Pub Date : 2020-09-10 DOI: 10.18485/ijdrm.2020.2.1.1
Edison Thennavan, Ganapathy Ganapathy Pattukandan, S. S. Chandrasekaran, A. S. Rajawat
Rainfall is one of the major causes of landslides/landslips across the globe. The fatalities and damage caused by rainfall induced landslides increased in recent days. The Nilgiris district in Western Ghats part of Tamil Nadu state is one of the very high to severe landslide hazard-prone areas of India.  The present study is focused on estimation of rainfall thresholds and the temporal probability of landslides in different landslide-prone slopes in part of The Nilgiris district. The landslide prone areas identified in earlier research are used for the present study.  The landslide locations data for the years 1824 to 2018 were collected and a spatial database on landslide inventory was created. A detailed inventory carried out on the 2009 landslides were analysed and used for the calculation of rainfall thresholds. Monthly and Yearly Rainfall data for the years 2000 to 2011 were collected for 37 rainguage stations from various government agencies. Based on the quality and quantity of data, the rainfall thresholds for 14 different locations were estimated viz., Aderly, Coonoor, Coonoor Railway, Governor Sola, Ooty (Near Botanical Garden), Runnymedu, Burliar where the probability of landslide occurrences is high.  The temporal probability of landslide was calculated for four years viz., 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. The present study can be used as a key to develop an early warning system in The Nilgiris District.
降雨是造成全球各地山体滑坡的主要原因之一。最近几天,降雨引发的山体滑坡造成的死亡和破坏有所增加。位于泰米尔纳德邦西高止山脉的尼尔吉里斯地区是印度山体滑坡高发到严重的地区之一。本研究的重点是在Nilgiris地区部分地区不同滑坡易发斜坡上估算降雨阈值和滑坡的时间概率。本研究采用早期研究中确定的滑坡易发区域。收集1824 ~ 2018年滑坡位置数据,建立滑坡盘存空间数据库。对2009年滑坡的详细清单进行了分析,并用于计算降雨阈值。二零零零年至二零一一年的月及年雨量资料是由不同政府机构的37个雨量站收集而成。根据数据的质量和数量,估计了14个不同地点的降雨阈值,即Aderly, Coonoor, Coonoor铁路,省长Sola, Ooty(靠近植物园),Runnymedu, Burliar,这些地点发生滑坡的可能性很高。计算了4年(1年、3年、5年和10年)滑坡发生的时间概率。本研究可作为在Nilgiris地区建立预警系统的关键。
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引用次数: 10
Earthquake Preparedness: A Social Media Fit Perspective to Accessing and Disseminating Earthquake Information 地震防备:从社会媒体角度获取和传播地震信息
Pub Date : 2019-12-25 DOI: 10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.2
Rita Mano, A. Kirshcenbaum, C. Rapaport
The field of risk communications encompasses the bulk of the scientific literature on preparedness by focusing on various means and measures used by at-risk populations, to receive, access and utilize information that acts as both a warning and a cue for disaster preparation. As noted, one area where sound scientific evidence is lacking is that of SM and its impact on disaster behaviors, particularly with respect to earthquakes, and on how information through this media can be used to facilitate preparedness behaviors. Building on a pool of Israeli research evidence on earthquakes that includes thorough analysis of past studies on risk communications and earthquake behaviors across the globe, we introduce the “social media fir”  model that considers a multi-level conceptualization of the use of social media for earthquake preparedness. We consider the extent that individual-level use of SM on the one hand (Kirshcenbaum, 2017; Mano 2014b; Mano 2014c) and institutional-level use on the other (Mano, 2014a) shape earthquake awareness and preparedness.
风险信息通报领域包括关于备灾的大部分科学文献,其重点是风险人群为接收、获取和利用既可作为预警又可作为备灾提示的信息而使用的各种手段和措施。如前所述,缺乏可靠科学证据的一个领域是信息传播及其对灾害行为的影响,特别是对地震的影响,以及如何利用这种媒体提供的信息促进备灾行为。在以色列地震研究证据的基础上,包括对过去全球风险沟通和地震行为研究的全面分析,我们引入了“社交媒体fir”模型,该模型考虑了在地震准备中使用社交媒体的多层次概念化。我们一方面考虑了个人层面使用SM的程度(Kirshcenbaum, 2017;马诺2014 b;Mano 2014c)和机构层面的使用(Mano, 2014a)塑造了地震意识和准备。
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引用次数: 19
Demographic, Socio-Economic and Phycological Perspective of Risk Perception from Disasters Caused by Floods: Case Study Belgrade 从人口、社会经济和生理学角度看洪灾造成的灾害风险认知:贝尔格莱德个案研究
Pub Date : 2019-12-02 DOI: 10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.3
J. Perić, V. Cvetković
Taking into account that floods are a very common occurrence in the Republic of Serbia, as well as the fact that they directly endanger the life and health of people, their property and the environment, it is necessary to see into how an individual perceives the risk of a natural disaster caused by a flood. In accordance with what is mentioned earlier, the research on which this paper is based was conducted in the area of several Belgrade municipalities - Palilula, Zemun, New Belgrade, Old Town, Savski venac, Grocka and Cukarica, with a sample of 120 respondents and with the aim of examining the perception of risk among the citizens of Belgrade. The results of the research show that there is a correlation between demographic (gender, age and education), socio-economic (property ownership and income levels) and psychological (fear and previous experience) factors with risk perception. Based on the results of the research and the knowledge gained, recommendations can be made that the competent authorities, institutions and organizations will be able to use in their educational activities, all with the aim of improving the perception of risk in the population. In this way, conditions are created for the implementation of preventive activities that can significantly reduce the consequences of natural disasters.
考虑到洪水在塞尔维亚共和国非常常见,而且它们直接危及人民的生命和健康、财产和环境,因此有必要了解个人如何看待洪水造成自然灾害的风险。根据上文所述,本文所依据的研究是在贝尔格莱德的几个城市- -帕里卢拉、泽蒙、新贝尔格莱德、老城区、萨夫斯基维纳克、格罗卡和库卡里卡进行的,样本为120人,目的是检查贝尔格莱德公民对风险的看法。研究结果表明,人口(性别、年龄和教育)、社会经济(财产所有权和收入水平)和心理(恐惧和以前的经验)因素与风险感知之间存在相关性。根据研究结果和获得的知识,可以提出建议,主管当局、机构和组织将能够在其教育活动中加以利用,所有这些都是为了提高人民对危险的认识。这样,就为执行能够大大减少自然灾害后果的预防性活动创造了条件。
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引用次数: 13
Disaster Governance and Community Resilience: The Law and the Role of SDMAs 灾害治理和社区恢复力:sdma的法律和作用
Pub Date : 2019-12-02 DOI: 10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.5
Natasha Goyal
Disasters have become more profound in intensity and frequent in occurrence due to climate change. The unpredictable and devastating consequences of rising global temperature has raised the alarm bells for ‘rapid and far-reaching’ transitions in land, energy and urban governance. The recent devastation due to floods in Kerala in August 2018, has brought disaster governance to the mainstream in government accountability. Despite high performance on Human Development Indicators and social infrastructure, the failure of the state government in ensuring adequate preparedness and mitigation through capacity building has pushed back the development of the state by decades. Trust deficit in the face of administrative negligence and executive callousness hindered the translation of scientific information into understandable warnings for first line responders. The havoc was significantly man made as the local administration failed to regulate blatant violations of Coastal Zone regulations even after repeated warnings from Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel report. The focus of state policy on human development has ignored the crucial aspect of ensuring active citizen participation in the development process. This has resulted in citizens becoming passive recipients of state entitlements, rather than active agents in a democracy. This paper is a critical view on disaster policies in India, which continue to ignore the decentralized institutions as crucial institutions in disaster management. The laudable role of fishermen in rescue and relief in the aftermath of Kerala floods clearly emphasizes that communities can no longer be ignored in the framework of disaster cycle. In a country which witnesses ubiquitous ‘regime of noncompliance’ to building bye laws, coastal zone regulations, land use plans and other safety laws, decentralized disaster management can help in building community resilience and ensuring accountability and transparency of government institutions. The argument gets underscored in a scenario where institutions of Disaster Management continue to focus on post disaster relief and rehabilitation, due to lack of enforcement powers of disaster management institutions
由于气候变化,灾害的强度和发生频率越来越高。全球气温上升的不可预测和破坏性后果,为土地、能源和城市治理的“迅速而深远”转型敲响了警钟。2018年8月喀拉拉邦洪水造成的破坏使灾害治理成为政府问责制的主流。尽管在人类发展指标和社会基础设施方面表现优异,但州政府未能通过能力建设确保充分的备灾和减灾,使该州的发展倒退了数十年。面对行政疏忽和行政麻木,信任缺失阻碍了将科学信息转化为一线响应者可以理解的警告。这场灾难很大程度上是人为造成的,因为即使在西高止山脉生态专家小组的报告多次警告之后,当地政府仍未能规范公然违反沿海地区规定的行为。把国家政策的重点放在人的发展上,忽视了确保公民积极参与发展进程的关键方面。这导致公民成为国家福利的被动接受者,而不是民主的积极参与者。本文对印度的灾害政策进行了批判,这些政策继续忽视了分散机构作为灾害管理的关键机构。渔民在喀拉拉邦水灾后的救援和救济中所发挥的值得称赞的作用,清楚地强调了在灾害周期的框架中,社区不能再被忽视。在一个建筑法规、沿海地区法规、土地使用计划和其他安全法普遍存在“违规制度”的国家,分散的灾害管理可以帮助建立社区复原力,确保政府机构的问责制和透明度。由于灾害管理机构缺乏执行权力,灾害管理机构继续将重点放在灾后救济和恢复上,这一论点得到了强调
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引用次数: 11
School-Community Collaboration: Disaster Preparedness Towards Building Resilient Communities 学校-社区合作:备灾以建设抗灾社区
Pub Date : 2019-08-03 DOI: 10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.4
G. C. S. Rico
The impact of disasters could not be undermined as the occurrence of which threatens national and international security at a great height. Disasters do not only disrupt daily activities but also take toll on the livelihood of individuals causing bigger implications on social and societal conditions, economic activities and progress as well as emotional and psychological impact on individuals. Being ranked as the third country in the world with high exposure to hazards, the Philippines tries to maximize resources and agents that could help in creating disaster risk reduction approaches and practices that are proactive rather than reactive. The collaboration between schools -the source of relevant knowledge and behavior formation ground, and the communities- the source of identity of individuals and groups, is seen as an effective way of promoting resilience among people. This study looks into the roles of schools and communities in reducing the risks disasters as well as how their collaboration creates linkages between and among stakeholders.
灾害的影响不容忽视,因为灾害的发生极大地威胁着国家和国际安全。灾害不仅扰乱日常活动,而且对个人的生计造成损害,对社会和社会状况、经济活动和进步以及对个人的情感和心理影响造成更大的影响。菲律宾被列为世界上第三大灾害高发国家,菲律宾试图最大限度地利用资源和人员,帮助制定主动而非被动的减少灾害风险的方法和做法。学校是相关知识和行为形成的基础,而社区是个人和群体的身份认同的来源,两者之间的合作被视为促进人们适应能力的有效途径。本研究探讨了学校和社区在减少灾害风险方面的作用,以及它们之间的合作如何在利益相关者之间建立联系。
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引用次数: 9
Governmental Incentivization for SMEs’ Engagement in Disaster Resilience in Southeast Asia 政府对东南亚中小企业参与灾害恢复的激励
Pub Date : 2019-04-06 DOI: 10.18485/IJDRM.2019.1.1.2
Aleksandrina V. Mavrodieva, Dyah S. Budiarti, Zhou Yu, Federico A. Pasha, R. Shaw
The resilience of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is regarded as a precondition of sustainable development both at the local and the national levels, as they are the providers of the main portion of jobs in the market, contributing an average between 57 to 97% of national employment in the ASEAN countries. At the same time, SMEs are the most vulnerable businesses as a result of financial, technological, and administrative limitations, where the majority of SMEs lack even basic knowledge on disaster preparedness and response techniques. The current study argues that governments have a particularly important role in mobilizing SMEs disaster resilience through developing adequate policies and legislation, and through providing the necessary infrastructure and investment climate for SMEs to thrive, focusing particularly on Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. The research tries to present the current level of SME involvement in each of the three countries and to identify relevant gaps and opportunities. This paper does not include an extensive list of recommendations but tries to focus on some of the basic techniques which governments can and should employ in their efforts towards economic and community resilience, arguing that a number of appropriate incentives would be beneficial in engaging SMEs as one of the vital parts of private sector. structured abstracts: 1) Introduction; 2) Methods; 3) Results; 4) Conclusions and implication.
中小企业(SMEs)的弹性被视为地方和国家可持续发展的先决条件,因为它们是市场上主要就业岗位的提供者,平均贡献了东盟国家57%至97%的全国就业机会。与此同时,由于资金、技术和行政方面的限制,中小企业是最脆弱的企业,大多数中小企业甚至缺乏备灾和救灾技术的基本知识。目前的研究认为,通过制定适当的政策和立法,以及为中小企业的蓬勃发展提供必要的基础设施和投资环境,政府在动员中小企业抗灾能力方面发挥着特别重要的作用,特别是在印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国。该研究试图呈现中小企业在这三个国家的当前参与水平,并确定相关的差距和机会。本文不包括广泛的建议清单,但试图将重点放在政府可以而且应该在经济和社区恢复力方面使用的一些基本技术上,认为一些适当的激励措施将有利于中小企业作为私营部门的重要组成部分之一。结构化摘要:1)导论;2)方法;3)结果;4)结论与启示。
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引用次数: 25
Preparing International Joint Project: Use of Japanese Flood Hazard Map in Bangladesh 准备国际联合项目:在孟加拉国使用日本洪水灾害地图
Pub Date : 2019-04-06 DOI: 10.18485/IJDRM.2019.1.1.4
Kumiko Fujita, R. Shaw
Both Japan and Bangladesh suffer from floods, and variety of measures have been developed in each country. In addition to the structural measures such as embank-ment, non-structural measures such as flood hazard map and warning system have been developed and used for evacuation effectively in Japan. However, flood hazard map is not a common measure in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, different measures such as raising/elevating their houses with plinth, placing sand bags on the riverbank and migration are common. The major reason of this difference isbecause of the different flood phenomena. For example, the flood phenomena in Japan is more destructive in short term compared to the flood in Bangladesh because of the difference of the topography. In Japan, the river velocity is fast because of the steep river bed, therefore, even one hit is possible to destroy buildings and deprive of people’s lives sometimes. However, flood in Bangladesh is not able to destroy buildings and deprive of people’s lives in short term. Long inundation period such as a few months makes people impossible to secure food by farming and deprive of human lives by starvation. Thus, understanding the different flood phenomena is the base of starting project. However, many researchers and mem-bers in international joint projects start without noticing the different phenomena and perception toward river and flood. In addition, understanding the background of each country is also needed, since the technology for flood disaster risk reduction have been developed under the social condition of each country. Since the flood in Japan is destructive in short term, Japanese are afraid of flood, thus flood disaster risk reduction has been considerable interest for government and local people. Government has been developing measures and legislation, and local people are cooperative to the government. However, Bangladeshi are not afraid of flood itself, the flood-conveyed fertile soil is even welcome by farmers. They pay attention to the duration of flood, since it is related to the available duration of farming and securing food. Thus, government and local people in Bangladesh did not choose the way of controlling the river flow by structural measures like Japan.
日本和孟加拉国都遭受洪灾,两国都制定了各种措施。除了堤防等结构性措施外,日本还开发了洪水灾害图和预警系统等非结构性措施,并有效地用于疏散。然而,洪水灾害地图在孟加拉国并不是一种常见的措施。在孟加拉国,不同的措施,如用底座抬高房屋,在河岸上放置沙袋和迁移是很常见的。造成这种差异的主要原因是不同的洪水现象。例如,由于地形的差异,日本的洪水现象在短期内比孟加拉国的洪水更具破坏性。在日本,由于河床陡峭,水流速度很快,因此,有时即使是一次撞击也可能摧毁建筑物,夺去人们的生命。然而,孟加拉国的洪水在短期内无法摧毁建筑物和剥夺人们的生命。几个月的长洪水期使人们无法通过农业获得粮食,并因饥饿而失去生命。因此,了解不同的洪水现象是工程开工的基础。然而,许多国际合作项目的研究人员和成员一开始就没有注意到河流和洪水的不同现象和感知。此外,还需要了解每个国家的背景,因为减少洪水灾害风险的技术是在每个国家的社会条件下发展起来的。由于日本的洪水在短期内具有破坏性,日本人对洪水非常恐惧,因此减少洪水灾害风险一直是政府和当地民众非常关心的问题。政府一直在制定措施和立法,当地人民也很配合政府。然而,孟加拉国人并不害怕洪水本身,洪水带来的肥沃土壤甚至受到农民的欢迎。他们关注洪水的持续时间,因为它关系到耕种和获得食物的可用时间。因此,孟加拉国政府和当地人民并没有选择像日本那样通过结构性措施控制河流流量的方式。
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引用次数: 25
Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade 贝尔格莱德建筑火灾的风险认知
Pub Date : 2019-04-06 DOI: 10.18485/IJDRM.2019.1.1.5
V. Cvetković
Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can beused to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns.
本文从贝尔格莱德地区居住建筑火灾发生的频率和严重程度出发,提出了市民对居住建筑火灾风险认知的研究结果。2017年初在贝尔格莱德进行了322次面对面访谈。建筑火灾风险感知的多元回归结果表明,恐惧、年龄、就业状况、收入水平和婚姻状况是建筑火灾风险感知的最重要预测因子。其余变量(如性别、教育水平、以前的经验)没有显著影响。有恐惧、已婚、收入较高和老年人的受访者认为,与那些没有恐惧、独居、收入较低和年轻人相比,风险水平更高。研究结果可以通过设计和使用适当的教育计划和活动来提高公民对住房设施火灾风险的认识,从而提高公民的安全水平。
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引用次数: 17
Natural Disasters in Turkey: Social and Economic Perspective 土耳其的自然灾害:社会和经济视角
Pub Date : 2019-03-28 DOI: 10.18485/IJDRM.2019.1.1.3
A. Öcal
Turkey is located in one of the most significant active seismic regions in the world. The country also is subject to many other natural disasters, that’s why, natural disasters have been seen in Turkey forever. These events have caused physical destruction to the death of more than 100.000 people and to the wounding of a lot, and shacked the country’s economy in the last century. Disasters sources from geological, meteorological,biological and technological sources, however, the results and effects of disasters involve of interest to social sciences. In developing the social perspective on disasters, the main factor is that disasters are effective on human communities. The development of individual, state and international cooperation mechanisms in combating disasters is a necessity. In this study, it was aimed to review the sociological, economical and psychological effects of the disasters, and to call attention to social scientist on the effects of disasters in Turkey.
土耳其位于世界上地震最活跃的地区之一。这个国家也受到许多其他自然灾害的影响,这就是为什么土耳其永远都能看到自然灾害。这些事件造成了物质上的破坏,造成10万多人死亡,许多人受伤,并在上个世纪摧毁了该国的经济。灾害来自地质、气象、生物和技术来源,然而,灾害的结果和影响涉及社会科学的利益。在发展灾害社会观时,主要的因素是灾害对人类社会的影响。发展个人、国家和国际抗灾合作机制是必要的。在这项研究中,它的目的是审查灾害的社会、经济和心理影响,并提请社会科学家注意灾害对土耳其的影响。
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引用次数: 27
期刊
International Journal of Disaster Risk Management
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