Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献

In Canada, Gonorrhea infection ranks as the second most prevalent sexually transmitted infection. In 2018, Manitoba reported an incidence rate three times greater than the national average. This study aims to investigate the spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal patterns of Gonorrhea infection in Manitoba, using individual-level laboratory-confirmed administrative data provided by Manitoba Health from 2000 to 2016. Age and sex patterns indicate that females are affected by infections at younger ages compared to males. Moreover, there is an increase in repeated infections in 2016, accounting for 16% of the total infections. Spatial analysis at the 96 Manitoba regional health authority districts highlights significant positive spatial autocorrelation, demonstrating a clustered distribution of the infection. Northern districts of Manitoba and central Winnipeg were identified as significant clusters. Temporal analysis shows seasonal patterns, with higher infections in late summer and fall. Additionally, spatio-temporal analysis reveals clusters during high-risk periods, with the most likely cluster in the northern districts of Manitoba from January 2006 to June 2014, and a secondary cluster in central Winnipeg from June 2004 to November 2012. This study identifies that Gonorrhea infection transmission in Manitoba has temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal variations. The findings provide vital insights for public health and Manitoba Health by revealing high-risk clusters and emphasizing the need for focused and localized prevention, control measures, and resource allocation.

In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy (VE) that we found in the literature, for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks, that is, when the force of infection grows in time, reaches a maximum and then vanishes. The fact that the disease occurs in outbreaks results in several problems that we analyse. We propose a mathematical model that allows the calculation of VE for several scenarios. Vaccine trials usually needs a large number of volunteers that must be enrolled. Ideally, all volunteers should be enrolled in approximately the same time, but this is generally impossible for logistic reasons and they are enrolled in a fashion that can be replaced by a continuous density function (for example, a Gaussian function). The outbreak can also be replaced by a continuous density function, and the use of these density functions simplifies the calculations. Assuming, for example Gaussian functions, one of the problems one can immediately notice is that the peak of the two curves do not occur at the same time. The model allows us to conclude: First, the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the force of infection increases; Second, the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the gap between the peak in the force of infection and the peak in the enrollment rate increases; Third, different trial protocols can be simulated with this model; different vaccine efficacy definitions can be calculated and in our simulations, all result are approximately the same. The final, and perhaps most important conclusion of our model, is that vaccine efficacy calculated during outbreaks must be carefully examined and the best way we can suggest to overcome this problem is to stratify the enrolled volunteer's in a cohort-by-cohort basis and do the survival analysis for each cohort, or apply the Cox proportional hazards model for each cohort.

The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the primary transmission route of the disease. In addition, the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected by the outbreak. This population is also disproportionately affected by HIV infection. Given that both diseases can be transmitted sexually, the endemicity of HIV, and the high sexual behavior associated with the MSM community, it is essential to understand the effect of the two diseases spreading simultaneously in an MSM population. Particularly, we aim to understand the potential effects of HIV on an mpox outbreak in the MSM population. We develop a mechanistic mathematical model of HIV and mpox co-infection. Our model incorporates the dynamics of both diseases and considers HIV treatment with anti-retroviral therapy (ART). In addition, we consider a potential scenario where HIV infection increases susceptibility to mpox, and investigate the potential impact of this mechanism on mpox dynamics. Our analysis shows that HIV can facilitate the spread of mpox in an MSM population, and that HIV treatment with ART may not be sufficient to control the spread of mpox in the population. However, we showed that a moderate use of condoms or reduction in sexual contact in the population combined with ART is beneficial in controlling mpox transmission. Based on our analysis, it is evident that effective control of HIV, specifically through substantial ART use, moderate condom compliance, and reduction in sexual contact, is imperative for curtailing the transmission of mpox in an MSM population and mitigating the compounding impact of these intertwined epidemics.

We propose a versatile model with a flexible choice of control for an early-pandemic outbreak prevention when vaccine/drug is not yet available. At that stage, control is often limited to non-medical interventions like social distancing and other behavioral changes. For the SIR optimal control problem, we show that the running cost of control satisfying mild, practically justified conditions generates an optimal strategy, u(t), t ∈ [0, T], that is sustainable up until some moment τ ∈ [0, T). However, for any t ∈ [τ, T], the function u(t) will decline as t approaches T, which may cause the number of newly infected people to increase. So, the window from 0 to τ is the time for public health officials to prepare alternative mitigation measures, such as vaccines, testing, antiviral medications, and others. In addition to theoretical study, we develop a fast and stable computational method for solving the proposed optimal control problem. The efficiency of the new method is illustrated with numerical examples of optimal control trajectories for various cost functions and weights. Simulation results provide a comprehensive demonstration of the effects of control on the epidemic spread and mitigation expenses, which can serve as invaluable references for public health officials.

As the world becomes ever more connected, the chance of pandemics increases as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent global mass vaccine roll-out provides an ideal setting to learn from and refine our understanding of infectious disease models for better future preparedness. In this review, we systematically analyze and categorize mathematical models that have been developed to design optimal vaccine prioritization strategies of an initially limited vaccine. As older individuals are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, the focus is on models that take age explicitly into account. The lower mobility and activity level of older individuals gives rise to non-trivial trade-offs. Secondary research questions concern the optimal time interval between vaccine doses and spatial vaccine distribution. This review showcases the effect of various modeling assumptions on model outcomes. A solid understanding of these relationships yields better infectious disease models and thus public health decisions during the next pandemic.

Parameter identification involves the estimation of undisclosed parameters within a system based on observed data and mathematical models. In this investigation, we employ DAISY to meticulously examine the structural identifiability of parameters of a within-host SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model, taking into account an array of observable datasets. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to offer a comprehensive practical analysis of model parameters. Lastly, sensitivity analysis is employed to ascertain that decreasing the replication rate of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and curbing the infectious period are the most efficacious measures in alleviating the dissemination of COVID-19 amongst hosts.

We propose a malaria model involving the sensitive and resistant strains, which is described by reaction-diffusion equations. The model reflects the scenario that the vector and host populations disperse with distinct diffusion rates, susceptible individuals or vectors cannot be infected by both strains simultaneously, and the vector population satisfies the logistic growth. Our main purpose is to get a threshold type result on the model, especially the interaction effect of the two strains in the presence of spatial structure. To solve this issue, the basic reproduction number (BRN) $R_0^i$ and invasion reproduction number (IRN) ${\hat{R}}_0^i$ of each strain (i = 1 and 2 are for the sensitive and resistant strains, respectively) are defined. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of the diffusion rates of populations and vectors on BRNs and IRNs.

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in the world, causing major public health problems in developing countries. The rate of TB incidence in Iran was estimated to be 13 per 100,000 in 2021. This study aimed to estimate the reproduction number and serial interval for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran.

Material and methods

The present national historical cohort study was conducted from March 2018 to March 2022 based on data from the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Registration Center of Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). The study included 30,762 tuberculosis cases and 16,165 new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Iran. We estimated the reproduction number of pulmonary tuberculosis in a Bayesian framework, which can incorporate uncertainty in estimating it. Statistical analyses were accomplished in R software.

Results

The mean age at diagnosis of patients was 52.3 ± 21.2 years, and most patients were in the 35–63 age group (37.1%). Among the data, 9121 (56.4%) cases were males, and 7044 (43.6%) were females. Among patients, 7459 (46.1%) had a delayed diagnosis between 1 and 3 months. Additionally, 3039 (18.8%) cases were non-Iranians, and 2978 (98%) were Afghans. The time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis disease was calculated at an average of 1.06 ± 0.05 (95% Crl 0.96–1.15).

Conclusions

In this study, the incidence and the time-varying reproduction number of pulmonary tuberculosis showed the same pattern. The mean of the time-varying reproduction number indicated that each infected person is causing at least one new infection over time, and the chain of transmission is not being disrupted.

Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the most important cause of death in the world. The socio-economic costs associated with NCDs makes it imperative to prevent and control them in the 21st century. The severe toll that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken worldwide is an unfortunate illustration of our limited insight into the infectious risk for the global population. Co-incidence between NCD and infection offers an underexplored opportunity to design preventive policies. In a pilot survey, we observed that the NCD population displays a substantial reduction in their social contacting behavior as compared to the general population. This indicates that existing mathematical models based on contact surveys in the general population are not applicable to the NCD population and that the risk of acquiring an infection following a contact is probably underestimated. Our demonstration of reduced social mixing in several chronic conditions, raises the question to what extent the social mixing is influenced by the burden of disease. We advocate the design of disease-specific contact surveys to address how the burden of disease associates with social contact behavior and the risk of infection. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic offers an unprecedented opportunity to gain insight into the importance of infection in the NCD population and to find ways to improve healthcare procedures.

Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases in adult groups, albeit small in number, indicate that the previously neglected adult group may need to be brought into vaccine coverage to achieve WHO's goal of measles eradication from the globe. In this study, we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to describe measles cases in adults and children to evaluate the role of adult infection in persistent measles cases and vaccination programs for eradication. Analysis of our model, validated by measles cases from outbreaks in Nepal, provides the vaccination reproduction number (conditions for measles eradication or persistence) and the role of contact network size. Our results highlight that while children are primary targets for measles outbreaks, a small number of infections in adults may act as a reservoir for measles, causing obstacles to eradication. Furthermore, our model analysis shows that while impactful controls can be achieved by children-focused vaccines, a combined adult-child vaccination program may help assert eradication of the disease.