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Human capital quality and its impact on economic growth of Russian regions 人力资本质量及其对俄罗斯地区经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.654-679
G. Mabiala, D. V. Linskiy, E. F. Amirova, M. Afonasova, A. V. Bogomolova
Purpose:  is to empirically substantiate the impact of human capital quality on the economic growth of the regions of Russia on the basis of theoretical and methodological generalization of its main aspects.Methods: along with traditional methods, specific methods were used, such as content analysis, methods of expert assessments and comparative analysis, and the calculation and graphic technique of Xiang-Yeaple, which allowed to identify the state of human capital quality, as well as establish its optimal structure suitable for dynamic economic development.Results: the cognitive and non-cognitive parameters of human potential are established as a realistic factor in the dynamics of gross regional product that determines the future pace of economic development. A comparative analysis of the labor demand and supply elasticity coefficients has revealed the degree of impact of its quality in ensuring the corresponding trends of economic growth. It was proven that significant investments in human capital and high levels of its development represent only a factor of ensuring economic growth and don’t guarantee its achievement. Recommendations for ensuring the development of labor potential as determinant of economic development, the growth rates of which largely depends on the human capital quality.Сonclusions and Relevance:   the Russian economy should focus on the formation and development of high-quality human capital through talent-fueled innovation by reforming the existing education system and assessing scientific potential in order to optimize the labor and branch structure suitable for high-quality economic growth. Human capital should be structured considering the parameters of its quality, the level of available labor potential, and the types of activities that require advanced knowledge for systemic economic growth.
目的:在对人力资本质量的主要方面进行理论和方法归纳的基础上,以实证的方式证实人力 资本质量对俄罗斯各地区经济增长的影响。方法:在使用传统方法的同时,还使用了内容分析、专家评估和比较分析方法、Xiang-Yeaple 计算和图形技术等具体方法,从而确定人力资本质量的状况,并建立适合经济动态发展的最佳结构。对劳动力供求弹性系数的比较分析表明了其质量对确保相应经济增长趋势的影响程度。事实证明,大量的人力资本投资和高水平的人力资本开发只是确保经济增长的一个因素,并不能保证经济增长的实现。结论和现实意义:俄罗斯经济应通过改革现有教育体系和评估科学潜力,重点关注以人才为动力的创新,形成和发展高质量的人力资本,以优化适合高质量经济增长的劳动力和部门结构。人力资本的结构应考虑其质量参数、现有劳动力潜力水平以及系统性经济增长所需的高级知识活动类型。
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引用次数: 0
Integral and generalized indicators of development and ensuring the national security of the country 国家发展和确保国家安全的综合和一般指标
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.619-635
V. Starovoitov, V. Eremin, S. A. Pobyvaev, E. V. Zolotarev, N. V. Lapenkova
Purpose:   presentation of the results of research on the development and application of methods for calculating integral and generalized indicators intended for assessing the state and making effective management decisions in the field of development and ensuring national security of Russia.Methods:  the following methods were used in the study: methods of statistical data preparation, the method of expert assessments, the T. Saaty method, the method of the Center for political conjuncture, the method of linear convolution.Results: the article provides an overview of approaches to managing development and ensuring national security in Russia and a number of foreign countries using various indicators. The authors have developed a methodology for forming integral and generalized indicators of development and ensuring the national security of Russia. The calculation of generalized indicators of the state of economic security in the field of civil air transportation and aircraft manufacturing in Russia in 2021-2022 is presented. The authors proposed a mechanism for analytical interpretation of the influence of changes in general and specific indicators on the transformation of the integral indicator.Сonclusions and Relevance:   when studying complex socio-economic phenomena, there is a need to use generalized and integral assessments. This is due to the large amount of information that needs to be analyzed, summarized and structured. Generalized and integral indicators are necessary for forecasting and planning development while ensuring the national security of the country. Such indicators make it possible to quickly and efficiently assess current socio-economic processes, respond in a timely manner and take measures to solve emerging problems. In the article, the authors propose to analyze the dynamics of generalized and integral indicators characterizing the development and ensuring the national security of the country, which makes it possible to identify potential threats and risks and timely take measures to minimize them.
研究方法:研究中使用了以下方法:统计数据准备方法、专家评估方法、T. Saaty 方法、政治连接中心方法、线性卷积方法。结果:文章概述了俄罗斯和一些外国使用各种指标管理发展和保障国家安全的方法。作者制定了形成俄罗斯发展和保障国家安全的综合指标和通用指标的方法。文中介绍了 2021-2022 年俄罗斯民用航空运输和飞机制造领域经济安全状况通用指标的计算方法。作者提出了分析解释一般指标和具体指标的变化对综合指标转变的影响的机制。结论和现实意义:在研究复杂的社会经济现象时,有必要使用概括性和综合性评估。这是因为有大量信息需要分析、总结和构建。要预测和规划发展,同时确保国家的安全,就必须使用概括性和整体性指标。有了这些指标,就可以快速有效地评估当前的社会经济进程,及时做出反应,并采取措施解决新出现的问题。在这篇文章中,作者建议分析表征国家发展和确保国家安全的通用指标和综合指标的动态,从而有可能确定潜在的威胁和风险,并及时采取措施将其最小化。
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引用次数: 0
Digitization of employment: the conceptual apparatus 就业数字化:概念装置
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.554-571
T. A. Kamarova, N. Tonkikh
Purpose:  is to develop the theoretical and methodological foundations for the study of digitalization of employment based on an assessment of the depth of penetration of information and communication technologies into labor processes and clarification of the essential characteristics of the phenomenon of "digital employment".Methods: the goal was achieved using traditional methods: desk research, structural and logical analysis, systematization and generalization of information. The empirical database was formed on the basis of sociological methods: a structured survey of the able-bodied population of the Ural Federal District and an expert survey of representatives of the business and scientific community. The scale of digitalization of employment in the region was determined by the methods of statistical analysis. When processing the results of an expert survey, the methods of semantic and SWOT analysis of content were used.Results:  the relevance of clarifying the conceptual apparatus of digitalization of employment is problematized. Sociological assessments showed a high level of penetration of information and communication technologies (ICT) into the labor sphere (81.3%) and a variety of formats, modes and nature of employment in the digital segment of the labor market, its differences from the non-digital sector. The intensity of the use of ICT has a high variation: from less than 30% during the working day to 70–100%. IT specialists and specialists who use ICT in their work mainly work remotely or in a hybrid format (51%), while those employed using digital platforms work in the office (66.7%). In the segment of platform employment, there are difficulties with self-identification of the place of work and employment status. The essential features of the phenomenon of "digital employment" are identified and the key criteria for classifying employment as a digital type are expertly substantiated, the author's definition of the concept of "digital employment" is formulated, and an enlarged classification is proposed.Conclusions and Relevance: the application of the author's approach can form the basis for refining the methodology for assessing the scale of digital employment and its characteristics. Digitalization of employment generates both positive and negative consequences. Research on digital employment is promising in terms of sustainability or instability of working conditions and social risks.
目的:在评估信息和通信技术对劳动过程的渗透程度、明确 "数字化就业 "现象的基本特征的基础上,为就业数字化研究奠定理论和方法基础。方法:采用传统方法实现目标:案头研究、结构和逻辑分析、信息的系统化和一般化。实证数据库是在社会学方法的基础上形成的:对乌拉尔联邦区健全人口的结构性调查以及对商业和科学界代表的专家调查。通过统计分析方法确定了该地区就业数字化的规模。在处理专家调查的结果时,使用了语义分析和 SWOT 内容分析的方法。社会学评估显示,信息和通信技术(ICT)在劳动力领域的渗透率很高(81.3%),劳动力市场数字化部分的就业形式、模式和性质多种多样,与非数字化部门有所不同。信息和通信技术的使用强度差异很大:从工作日不到 30%到 70-100%不等。在工作中使用信息和通信技术的信息技术专家和专业人员主要是远程工作或以混合形式工作(51%),而使用数字平台的就业人员则在办公室工作(66.7%)。在 "平台就业 "群体中,工作地点和就业身份的自我认定存在困难。结论与现实意义:应用作者的方法可以为完善数字就业规模及其特征的评估方法奠定基础。就业数字化既会产生积极影响,也会产生消极影响。在工作条件的可持续性或不稳定性以及社会风险方面,有关数字化就业的研究前景广阔。
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引用次数: 0
The current state and the mechanism of the transformation of the ESG agenda by Russian companies. Part 2. 俄罗斯企业转变 ESG 议程的现状和机制。第 2 部分.
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.538-553
M. Izmailova
Purpose:   development of a mechanism for the ESG transformation of Russian companies based on a critical assessment of the evolution and modern implementation of the ESG agenda in Russia. In the second part of the article, the author solves the problem of analyzing the compliance of the content of the Russian ESG agenda with global risks and developing a mechanism for the ESG transformation of Russian companies.Methods:  methods of theoretical analysis were applied, which made it possible to reveal the conceptual component of the ESG agenda and sustainable development; empirical analysis of the global risk landscape and the implementation of the Russian ESG agenda; a statistical method for determining priority areas for the implementation of the Russian ESG agenda; abstraction and modeling to formalize the ESG transformation mechanism/Results:  the conceptualization of the ESG agenda and sustainable development was carried out, the content basis of which harmonizes with corporate social responsibility. The mobility of the landscape of global risks with a steady trend of the prevalence of environmental and social risks is determined. The results of the implementation of the Russian ESG agenda based on the results of 2022 and the tasks for the near future are summarized. Priority directions and barriers to the implementation of the ESG agenda have been established. Proposed mechanism for ESG transformation of Russian companies. Conclusions and Relevance:  the functioning of national economies is influenced by global threats: environmental and social risks are leading in the next decade. The results of the implementation of the Russian ESG agenda indicate its adequacy to the nature of global risks. In environmental policy, attention is focused on energy saving and waste recycling technologies, in social policy - on social guarantees and support for the professional and personal development of employees, in corporate policy - on consumer surveys and selection of suppliers. Among the barriers to the implementation of the ESG agenda: financial, associated with fears of non-return of investments and high costs for the ESG agenda; methodical, manifested in the absence of uniform standards and ESG indicators; lack of external incentives and low ESG-competence of management. The low awareness of company management about ESG and how to incorporate it into business processes served as the basis for developing a mechanism for transforming a business model based on ESG principles, including an ESG transformation model, operating principles and required competencies.
目的:在对俄罗斯环境、社会和公司治理议程的演变和现代实施情况进行批判性评估的基础上,制定俄罗斯公司环境、社会和公司治理转型机制。在文章的第二部分,作者解决了分析俄罗斯环境、社会和公司治理议程的内容与全球风险的一致性以及制定俄罗斯公司环境、社会和公司治理转型机制的问题。方法:运用理论分析方法,揭示了环境、社会和公司治理议程与可持续发展的概念部分;对全球风险状况和俄罗斯环境、社会和公司治理议程的实施情况进行了实证分析;采用统计方法确定了实施俄罗斯环境、社会和公司治理议程的优先领域;通过抽象和建模正式确定了环境、社会和公司治理转型机制/结果:对环境、社会和公司治理议程与可持续发展进行了概念化,其内容基础与企业社会责任相一致。确定了全球风险格局的流动性,以及环境和社会风险普遍存在的稳定趋势。在 2022 年成果的基础上,总结了俄罗斯环境、社会和治理议程的实施成果和近期任务。确定了实施环境、社会和治理议程的优先方向和障碍。提出了俄罗斯公司在环境、社会和公司治理方面的转型机制。结论和现实意义:国民经济的运行受到全球威胁的影响:环境和社会风险在未来十年中处于主导地位。俄罗斯环境、社会和治理议程的实施结果表明,该议程足以应对全球风险的性质。在环境政策方面,重点关注节能和废物回收技术;在社会政策方面,重点关注社会保障以及对员工职业和个人发展的支持;在企业政策方面,重点关注消费者调查和供应商选择。实施环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)议程的障碍有:资金方面的,担心投资没有回报,环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)议程成本高;方法方面的,缺乏统一的标准和环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)指标;缺乏外部激励,管理层的环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)能力低。公司管理层对环境、社会和公司治理以及如何将其纳入业务流程的认识不足,这是制定基于环境、社会和公司治理原则的业务模式转型机制的基础,包括环境、社会和公司治理转型模式、运营原则和所需能力。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of opportunities and conditions of transformation of the Russian economy 俄罗斯经济转型的机遇和条件分析
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.524-537
N. Komkov
Purpose:   is to study the reasons, possibilities and conditions for the transformation of the Russian economy during the period of overcoming the sanctions of the EU countries and the United States and the transition to a multipolar world order.Methods:  the methodology used for conducting the research is based on a generalization of methods for analyzing the cause-and-effect relationships of complex systems using network methods, as well as information and logical models of the processes of development of socio-economic systems.Results: the article analyzes the reasons for the transformation of the Russian and world economy in the coming years. The author shows the conditions for the formation and establishment of a market economy in our country, as well as the factors that influenced its development. The successes achieved and the bottlenecks that have formed in the Russian economy are noted. The ways of eliminating problematic situations are considered, including the possibility of restoring innovative potential, the transition of companies to strategic planning of technological development, improving decision-making mechanisms and the formation of an economic model of development in the medium term. The main results of the study are to substantiate the reasons for the transformation of the liberal economic model that has evolved in Russia during the transition to the market economy.Conclusions and Relevance:   the article emphasizes the modern inevitability of structural and technological changes in the Russian economy. The emphasis is placed on the need to eliminate bottlenecks in the domestic economy, which, first of all, include a decrease in the potential of the innovation sphere. According to the author, among the main conditions for the transformation of the Russian economy is the transition from the evolutionary development of companies to the normative planning of technological modernization processes, the improvement of target management mechanisms, as well as the formation of forecast estimates assessments of the prospects for technological development on an innovative basis.
目的:研究在克服欧盟国家和美国制裁以及向多极世界秩序过渡期间俄罗斯经济转型的原因、可能性和条件。方法:进行研究的方法基于利用网络方法分析复杂系统因果关系的方法的推广,以及社会经济系统发展过程的信息和逻辑模型。结果:文章分析了未来几年俄罗斯和世界经济转型的原因。作者说明了我国形成和建立市场经济的条件,以及影响其发展的因素。作者指出了在俄罗斯经济中取得的成功和形成的瓶颈。考虑了消除问题状况的方法,包括恢复创新潜力的可能性、企业向技术发展战略规划过渡、改善决策机制和形成中期发展经济模式。研究的主要成果证实了俄罗斯在向市场经济转型过程中形成的自由经济模式转型的原因。结论和现实意义:文章强调了俄罗斯经济结构和技术变革的现代必然性。重点强调了消除国内经济瓶颈的必要性,其中首先包括创新领域潜力的下降。作者认为,俄罗斯经济转型的主要条件之一是从企业的演进发展过渡到技术现代化进程的规范规划、目标管理机制的完善以及在创新基础上形成对技术发展前景的预测评估。
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引用次数: 0
Value systems of representatives of different generations in the process of decision-making on choosing a university and educational program 不同年代的代表在选择大学和教育计划决策过程中的价值体系
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.636-653
O. I. Popova, G. Timokhina, N. Izakova
Purpose: is to propose the methodological approach to modeling the behavior of the representatives of generations Y and Z in the process of making decisions about choosing a university and educational program based on differences in their value systems.Methods: the theoretical and methodological basis for studying the value systems of potential and actual university students is the theory of generations. The findings of the study are based on the methods of analysis of secondary and primary data collected through an online survey of students belonging to generations Y and Z on representative samples of 380 (Y) and 788 (Z) observations in 20 large universities in Russia, as well as the methods of analysis of statistically significant differences in value systems of two generations using T-test for independent samples.Results: the authors proposed the methodological approach to modeling the behavior of consumers of generations Y and Z in the process of making decisions on choosing a university and educational program. Based on the results of desk and field (empirical) research, at each stage of the decision-making process on selecting an educational institution and program, differences were identified in the value systems of students of generations Y and Z, which determine their behavior: statistically significant differences were identified in 19 out of 65 variables. The study provides description of the behavior patterns of students of the two generations at each stage of the decision-making process which formed the basis for dividing students into target groups. The guidelines for differentiating marketing interactions with target groups of representatives of two generations in the process of educational interactions while making decisions are proposed.Conclusions and Relevance: differences in the value systems of representatives of generations Y and Z cause differences in behavioral patterns at each stage of the decision-making process. Understanding these differences enables us to model the behavior of the two target groups, differentiate marketing approaches to interaction with them at the stages of the decision-making process while choosing a university and educational program as well as increase the effectiveness of educational interactions in the process of education.
目的:根据 Y 代和 Z 代学生价值体系的差异,提出 Y 代和 Z 代学生代表在选择大学和教育项目决策过程中的行为建模方法。方法:研究潜在和实际大学生价值体系的理论和方法基础是代际理论。研究结果基于对俄罗斯 20 所大型大学中具有代表性的 380 个(Y)和 788 个(Z)观察样本进行的 Y 代和 Z 代学生在线调查所收集的二级和一级数据的分析方法,以及使用独立样本 T 检验法对两代人价值体系的显著差异进行统计分析的方法。根据案头研究和实地(实证)研究的结果,在选择教育机构和教育项目的决策过程的每个阶段,Y 代和 Z 代学生的价值体系都存在差异,这些差异决定了他们的行为:在 65 个变量中,有 19 个变量存在统计学意义上的显著差异。研究描述了两代学生在决策过程中每个阶段的行为模式,为将学生划分为目标群体奠定了基础。结论和现实意义:Y 代和 Z 代代表的价值体系差异导致了决策过程每个阶段行为模式的不同。了解了这些差异,我们就能为这两个目标群体的行为建模,在选择大学和教育项目时,在决策过程的各个阶段采取不同的营销方法与他们互动,并在教育过程中提高教育互动的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Regional features of state financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises 国家财政支持中小企业的地区特点
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.680-697
K. A. Zaharova, N. V. Ivanova
Purpose:  of the article is to study the existing system of state financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Tyumen Oblast in order to  identify problematic points of SME development in the region and determine of appropriate measures for their adjustment.Methods: in the part of the study on the quantitative indicators of State financial support for SMEs, statistical analysis was used, including a study of the structure and dynamics of measures implemented, as well as the number of SMEs. To assess the degree of influence of the tools used on the development of SMEs, data from the ongoing program of state financial support in the Tyumen Oblast were used.Results:  in the course of the research, the main determinants constraining the effectiveness of the use of State financial support tools for SMEs in the Tyumen Oblast were identified. The lack of systematic and comprehensive State financial support for SMEs was revealed, which would reflect the vision of the elements of the system and the establishment of the relationships between them, taking into account changes in the external environment and the indication of the most effective support measures for individual areas of SMEs activity.Сonclusions and Relevance:  as a result of the study, the need to modernize the implemented state financial support for SMEs in the Tyumen Oblast in the direction of expanding the list of instruments and diversifying the measures applied to legal entities and individual entrepreneurs has been established. As one of the promising areas, it seems reasonable to create guaranteed sales markets and active connection of SMEs to business networks. This will maximize the effectiveness of measures applied to support economically and socially important SMEs, taking into account their specifics, strengthen the financial condition of enterprises in this sector and thus ensure the stability of the economic development of the region.
目的:本文的目的是研究秋明州现有的国家财政支持中小型企业(SMEs)的体系,以确定该地区中小型企业发展的问题点,并确定适当的调整措施。方法:在研究国家财政支持中小型企业的定量指标部分,使用了统计分析,包括研究实施的措施的结构和动态,以及中小型企业的数量。结果:在研究的过程中,确定了在秋明州制约使用国家财政支持中小型企业工具有效性的主要决定因素。结论和相关性:在研究的过程中,确定了在秋明州实施的国家财政支持中小型企业的现代化的必要性,其方向是扩大工具的清单,使适用于法人实体和个人企业家的措施多样化。其中一个有希望的领域是:建立有保障的销售市场和积极的连接中小企业的商业网络。这将最大限度地提高用于支持具有经济和社会重要性的中小企业的措施的效力,同时考虑到这些企业的具体情况,加强该部门企业的财务状况,从而确保该地区经济发展的稳定性。
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引用次数: 0
Regional digital transformation strategies: algorithm for updating projects and goals 地区数字化转型战略:更新项目和目标的算法
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.602-618
E. Lobkova, E. A. Osadchenko
Purpose:   is to develop an approach to the procedure for updating regional strategic plans in the field of digital transformation, based on the algorithm for solving the problem of optimizing the levels of achievement of project goals in key industries of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.Methods:  the research was based on the documents of the regulatory framework of strategic planning in the Russian Federation and the texts of approved and updated strategies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the field of digital transformation. Methods of constructing strategic maps and decomposing goals, linear programming and finding the optimal solution were used.Results: the formulation of the linear programming problem has been detailed to find the optimal values for achieving the goals of digital transformation, taking into account the features of its field of application. The procedure for decomposing strategic goals and assigning coefficients of relationship between them is illustrated. The quantitative estimates obtained by the authors for solving the problem are presented and explained.Conclusions and Relevance:   in the process of developing and subsequent updating of strategic plans for digital transformation, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are guided by the recommendations of federal authorities and territorial specifics. They take into account new trends in the digital transformation of industries, achievements and limitations on the path to fundamentally different conditions for managing the region and doing business. Digital transformation is proceeding with varying degrees of intensity – there is both territorial and industry differentiation. To a large extent, the speed of transformation processes depends on the ongoing regional policy and the content of the implemented strategic digital projects. The revision of the list of projects and target indicators is due to the necessary adjustment of the goals and emphasis of the transformation process. Assessing the optimal values of industry development indicators, taking into account resource limits, serves the purpose of updating regional strategic plans in the field of digital transformation of key industries and areas.
目的:根据解决俄罗斯联邦主体关键行业项目目标实现水平优化问题的算法,制定更新数字化转型领域地区战略计划的程序方法。方法:研究以俄罗斯联邦战略规划监管框架文件和俄罗斯联邦主体数字化转型领域已批准和更新战略文本为基础。研究采用了构建战略地图和分解目标、线性规划和寻找最优解的方法。研究结果:考虑到数字化转型应用领域的特点,详细阐述了线性规划问题的表述,以找到实现数字化转型目标的最优值。说明了分解战略目标和分配它们之间关系系数的程序。结论和现实意义:在制定和随后更新数字化转型战略计划的过程中,俄罗斯联邦各主体以联邦当局的建议和地区具体情况为指导。在制定和更新数字化转型战略计划的过程中,俄罗斯联邦各主体以联邦当局的建议和各地区的具体情况为指导,并考虑到各行业数字化转型的新趋势、在通往管理地区和开展业务的根本不同条件的道路上所取得的成就和存在的限制。数字化转型正在以不同程度的强度进行--既有地区差异,也有行业差异。在很大程度上,转型进程的速度取决于正在实施的地区政策和已实施的战略性数字项目的内容。修订项目清单和目标指标的原因在于对转型进程的目标和重点进行必要的调整。在考虑到资源限制的情况下,评估行业发展指标的最佳值有助于更新关键行业和领域数字化转型领域的地区战略计划。
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引用次数: 0
Regional models of import substitution processes in the context of modern economic realities (on the example of the Samara region) 现代经济现实背景下进口替代进程的地区模式(以萨马拉地区为例)
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.4.588-601
N. Tyukavkin, V. Y. Anisimova
Purpose:  is to develop regional import substitution models on the example of the Samara region.Methods: the paper uses a systematic approach, a method of evaluation and scientific abstractions, a method of classification and systematization, methods of information analysis and synthesis, a method of data visualization.Results:  the author's toolkit of "innovative superiority of domestic products-an analogue of imported ones" has been developed, in the form of a complex of technological advantages available at the enterprise that are not available to others, forming the basis for rapid growth and development of innovations. The authors' hypothesis on the use by enterprises of the region of certain import substitution models based on the tools for the formation of innovative superiority of domestic products-an analogue of imported products, and tools for ensuring national security and overcoming anti-Russian sanctions on the production of products is put forward and proved. It is recommended to include measures to improve this policy, ensuring the development of the market of domestic products based on innovations. A program  is proposed to implement for the development of national and regional innovation systems, the formation of regional and sectoral centers of innovation and technological development, the introduction of technologies of excellence and advanced development to ensure the development of the market of domestic industrial products on an innovative basis and meet domestic demand.Conclusions and Relevance: based on the analysis of the activities of industrial enterprises in the conditions of anti-Russian sanctions, it is concluded that regional policy should promote the production of competitive and innovative products, the introduction of energy and resource-saving technologies at industrial enterprises, and support the weakest enterprises with a high level of imported components. The authors of the proposed regional models of import substitution are presented by the interpretation of the really functioning regional models. In the approach proposed by the authors to the study of regional models of import substitution in industry, models of the scale and dynamics of these processes are substantiated, reflecting the production of products using domestic analogues of production, replacing imported technologies, using indicators of the domestic market, with further access to national and world markets.
目的:以萨马拉地区为例开发地区进口替代模式。方法:本文采用了系统方法、评估和科学抽象方法、分类和系统化方法、信息分析和综合方法、数据可视化方法。结果:作者开发了 "国内产品创新优势--进口产品的类比 "工具包,其形式是企业拥有其他企业所不具备的技术优势,为创新的快速增长和发展奠定了基础。作者提出并证明了该地区企业使用某些进口替代模式的假设,这些模式的基础是形成国内产品--进口产品的类似物--创新优势的工具,以及确保国家安全和克服对产品生产的反俄罗斯制裁的工具。建议采取措施完善这一政策,确保基于创新的国内产品市场的发展。结论和现实意义:根据对反俄制裁条件下工业企业活动的分析得出结论,地区政策应促进有竞争力的创新产品的生产,促进工业企业引进能源和资源节约型技术,支持进口部件水平较高的最薄弱企业。作者提出的进口替代区域模式是通过对真正发挥作用的区域模式的解释提出的。在作者提出的研究工业进口替代区域模式的方法中,这些过程的规模和动态模型得到了证实,反映了利用国内类似生产方式生产产品,替代进口技术,利用国内市场指标,进一步进入国内和世界市场。
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引用次数: 0
Indicators of crisis development and financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system in crisis periods 危机时期全球经济体系主体的危机发展和金融行为指标
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.2.207-223
G. Romashkina, D. Skripnuk, K. V. Andrianov
Purpose: is to form evaluative indicators of crises based on the analysis of financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system during various crisis periods.Methods: quantitative and qualitative analysis of the crises’ periodization, according to evaluative indicators calculated on the World Bank data; retrospective, comparative analysis of the financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system were used. Results: evaluative indicators of crises are formed. Methods and approaches to the study of crises are systematized based on the analysis of the financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system in crisis periods. It is shown that the state of the balance of payments can be among the evaluative indicators of crises. The spikes of the oil prices can also anticipate a crisis. The gold rises in price during and immediately after crisis, serving as a reserve currency. In this time, there is a decrease in the scale of variation in the growth rates of indicators of money supply, companies’ market capitalization and domestic credit.Conclusions and Relevance: the identified evaluative indicators can act as a system of leading indicators of crisis processes, in conditions of an increase in the global economy volume and the intensifying instability of the global financial system. It is shown that the financial sector of the world economy is increasingly detached from the real sector. The financial sector and state institutions, using various risk reduction tools, transfer risks to the global economic system, which leads to the development of new rules of financial behavior of the subjects of the global economic system in crisis periods. It is proposed to consider the leading indicators of crisis processes as a system that can form the basic factors of financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system in crisis periods, determining the directions of stability of the world economic system. The strengthening of the influence of new technologies, including advanced information and communication technologies, in the context of expanding the diversity of models and systems of interaction of individual agents and institutional systems can both act as an unconditional engine of economic development and provokes the strongest crises in the global economic system.
目的:通过分析不同危机时期全球经济体系主体的金融行为,形成危机的评价指标。方法:根据世界银行数据计算的评价指标,对危机的分期进行定量和定性分析;对全球经济体系主体的金融行为进行了回顾性比较分析。结果:形成了危机的评价指标。危机研究的方法和途径是系统化的,基于对危机时期全球经济体系主体金融行为的分析。结果表明,国际收支状况可以作为危机的评价指标之一。油价的飙升也预示着危机的到来。作为储备货币,黄金在危机期间和危机后立即上涨。在此期间,货币供应量、企业市值、国内信贷等指标的增速变化幅度有所减小。结论和相关性:在全球经济体量增加和全球金融体系不稳定性加剧的情况下,确定的评价指标可以作为危机过程的领先指标体系。这表明,世界经济的金融部门越来越脱离实体部门。金融部门和国家机构使用各种降低风险的工具,将风险转移到全球经济体系,从而导致危机时期全球经济体系主体金融行为新规则的发展。建议将危机过程的领先指标视为一个系统,它可以形成危机时期全球经济体系主体金融行为的基本因素,决定世界经济体系的稳定方向。在扩大个体行动者和机构系统相互作用的模式和系统的多样性的背景下,加强包括先进信息和通信技术在内的新技术的影响,既可以无条件地成为经济发展的引擎,也可以在全球经济系统中引发最严重的危机。
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MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)
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